Mars Asteroid Impact More Likely Than Before

sheldie writes "The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%" This is a follow-up to earlier coverage of this asteroid from last week.

Comments

Wow

[snowraver1]

That would truly be an amazing event. The science that could be learned in the event of a collision would be massive! I, for one, welcome our planet smashing overlord!

Re:Wow

[Anonymous Coward]

I've experiments to be run. There is research to be done. On the planets who are still alive...

Re:Wow

[snowraver1]

It would cause alot of dust and dirt to become airborne, allowing spectral analysis to determine the presence of substances. The argument about water existing on the planet would likely be answered, and we could get a good look on what resources might be available on mars if humans were ever able to establish a base camp.

Preview of news media coverage

[bwintx]

"BREAKING NEWS! [SFX: Ridiculously melodramatic sounder]

"NASA now says an asteroid impact on Mars is now three times more likely than previously thought.

"At this rate, the impact's likelihood will exceed 150% in just a few days."

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[Smidge204]

To be fair, a "1 in 24" is much better odds than "1 in 76." So yes, It is three times more likely and yes, that is a pretty big deal.

A fresh impact crater would reveal all sorts of valuable, once-in-a-lifetime data about the planet that is likely to be the first humans will tred on since Earth. Don't underestimate the science.
=Smidge=

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[Smidge204]

What "science" do you have in mind? Mars has already a bazillion craters to look at

But no FRESH ones. All the craters are millions of years old and have been weathered and contaminated. A fresh divot would expose deeper soils and rocks that have not previously been exposed to the atmosphere.

Also, there are things to learn about the mechanics of larger impacts on Earth-like planets. Since comparisons have been drawn between this and the Tunguska explosion, perhaps studying this will help prove or disprove that theory.
=Smidge=

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[Sponge Bath]

I doubt NASA would tell the rovers if there was a chance anyways.

Better to just allow the rover to see a shadow, look up, and emit:
0x68 0x6f 0x6c 0x79 0x20 0x63 0x72 0x61 0x70 0x21

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[JetJaguar]

But no FRESH ones.

That's not really true. The orbital cameras around Mars have detected new craters from impacts that occurred in just the last few years. Here's just one example.

Do your duty, people

[plover]

C'mon, people, it's our duty as annoying geeks to raise paranoia amongst our friends and family.

Tell them that if the asteroid just barely misses Mars that its gravitational pull could actually slingshot the rock straight towards earth! You just don't have to tell them what the chances of that are (astronomical would be an accurate value.)

Lets see how many people who failed math we can get to go hide in caves till it passes. :-)

Versus Jupiter

[us7892]

How come the experts cannot mathematically say for certain whether this rock will hit Mars? What's the wildcard in this calculation that injects uncertainty?

Re:Versus Jupiter

[plover]

Measurement inaccuracies in the observations of its current trajectory. It's not like we can hold a tape measure up to it and figure out its precise position, or put it on a scale to check its mass.

The more it moves, however, the higher the precision of the measurements can be. So as time progresses, the astronomers will be able to reduce the circle of uncertainty.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[Anonymous Coward]

Accuracy of measurements, mainly.

Also, regarding Jupiter and Shoemaker-Levy 9: Jupiter is a much larger target with a much larger gravitational field. In fact, Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 was actually orbiting Jupiter (not the Sun), and it was easy enough to see that its orbit was decaying. That fact alone means a collision was near certain.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[blhack]

yes, there is. It is called the:

"not knowing the exact position, velocity, and mass of the object due to inadequate funding that has been, instead, spent on countless "beautification" projects around major cities uncertainty principal"

Re:Versus Jupiter

[Markrian]

Actually, since the asteroid's mass is negligible to that of the planets, its mass is irrelevant to its trajectory as it can be considered a test particle. We only need to know six pieces of information - three spatial coordinates, and three velocity components. It's easy to measure four of these very accurately, but the radial distance and velocity of the asteroid with respect to us are harder. These are where the majority of the uncertainty comes from.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[samkass]

I think it's worth noting that if it's this hard to predict whether a rock is going to hit a planet when there's confidence in the computational model but uncertainty in the observations, then it's absurd to talk about the climate in 2030-2100 when we have neither certainty that our models are accurate nor do we have very good data.

I disagree that that's worth noting. There is absolutely no doubt that the distance between this asteroid and Mars is going to continue to decline for awhile. That type of qualitative statement is much closer to making climate predictions. The analogy of whether it will hit is closer to making weather predictions for 2 decades out, which I agree is absurd.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[slashname3]

And you don't even mention Mars' version of Bruce Willis taking off in a flying saucer with a team of wild cat water drillers to plant nuclear weapons in the asteroid in an attempt to divert it from a direct strike on Mars. They have to factor in the possibility of that happening too.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[AgentPaper]

Wrong unit of measure - the school bus is the accepted unit for items longer than a Beetle but smaller than a football field. 1/3 field = 1 bus = 3 Beetles. Alternately, 30 meters equals about 60% of the height of the Library of Congress' dome.

Figures aren't available on how many light bulbs it will power, though.

General Buck Turgeson Is On It, Sir!

[eldavojohn]

we can get to go hide in caves till it passes ... My God! The rooskies could be working on the very same thing right now!

Mr. President, we must not allow a gravitationally slingshotted asteroid cave society gap!

Look at it this way...

[ToSeek]

As the Bad Astronomer notes, the odds of nothing happening have shrunk from 99% to 96%.

Re:Look at it this way...

[cplusplus]

Hey, I'm a "My glass is 3.9% full" kind of guy.

Increasing probability

[Will_Malverson]

Remember how these things work - they made a few observations, from which they made a cone through which they're 95% (or whatever) sure that the asteroid will pass. Mars filled up about 1.3% of that cone, and so they can say that there's a 1.3% chance that Mars will be hit by the asteroid.

A few days later, with better observations, the cone shrinks, and now Mars takes up 3.9% of the cone. As the cone shrinks, Mars will continue to consume a larger and larger portion of it, right up until the time (maybe) that the cone shrinks outside of Mars and they determine that there will be no impact.

So remember, this is not unusual, and *every* non-impact event follows this pattern: Scientists find potential impact. Impact probability increases. Impact probability increases. (maybe a few more repetitions, too) Suddenly, they decide that it's not going to hit, and impact probability goes to zero.

Is that asteroid

[WormholeFiend]

from Klendathu? /Service guarantees citizenship //Would you like to know more?

Impact results

[lpangelrob]

No one's brought up the consequences of a collision yet, so here it is, from the first press release:

If the asteroid is indeed on a collision course, it would hit Mars with a velocity of about 13.5 km/s (8.4 miles per second), and would produce an explosion equivalent to about 3 MT of TNT. We can only speculate as to the effects of such an impact, but it would be reasonable to expect a crater nearly a kilometer across and a significant amount of dust lifted into the atmosphere.

It also notes the asteroid is 160 ft / 50 m across, and any impact probably will not be observed (by human eyes, anyways) because it will impact Mars where there are no instruments.

Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[Ed Almos]

2007 TU24 - approaching
Approximate diameter: 319 meters (H=20.131)
Closest Earth approach: 1.44 LD at 0826 UTC on 29 Jan. -----
Inside ten LD of Earth: 24 Jan. until 3 Feb.
Inside Earth's Hill sphere: 27 to 31 Jan.
Closest Moon approach: 2.20 LD at 1533 UTC 29 Jan.
Data based on: JPL SSD orbit solution #13 downloaded 6 Dec.
based on 87 observations spanning 54 days
Optical observation: observed from 13 locations during 53.8661 days
discovered at 0626 UTC on 11 Oct. by the Catalina Sky Survey
last observed at 0313 UTC on 4 Dec. by the Spacewatch 1.8m telescope

This shows that a rock 319m in diameter will pass by the Earth on January 29th 2008, it's closest point will be about 1.4 times the moons orbit or about 357,000 miles. This is VERY VERY close.

Regards

Ed Almos

Re:Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[AbsoluteXyro]

If 357,000 miles is "VERY VERY close" then I am practically inside Angelina Jolie's vagina, considering my proximity to her and what I assume you propose for varying degrees of closeness.

Re:This is going to decimate all life on Mars

[jombeewoof]

I would imagine 1/10 of the stories it will be used incorrectly on today.

The rovers

[ACS Solver]

Is there any information yet on whether Spirit and Opportunity might see anything if there actually is impact - such as maybe seeing the dust rise or even capturing a glimpse of the asteroid in the Martian atmosphere?

But what about...

[martyb]

"The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised [CC] following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%"

But what about 2007 WD40? My bet is that one WILL slip past us! <grin>

What terrifies me about the potential impact

[Chris Tucker]

is the tons of utter bullshit that Richard Hoagland will then spew about all the fantastic discoveries revealed by the impact, proving that there was an advanced civilization on Mars, that NASA is suppressing.

Dear Jeebus, please let the asteroid hit the "Face On Mars" dead center, just to piss off that con artist Hoagland.

Thanks!

i know what will happen.

[xENoLocO]

The asteroid will bust through the surface crust, exposting Mars' nougatty, caramel-filled center.

Yummy.

Odds of astroid impact

[WalletBoy]

"Never tell me the odds!"

Re:scared for earth

[Deadstick]

The same object missed us by 5 million miles -- about 1/8 the separation between Earth and Mars orbits -- two months ago and we didn't see it until two weeks later.

rj

Murphy's Law Re:Taking All Bets

[Alien54]

Actually, Murphy's law says that not only will the asteroid miss Mars, it says that the asteroid miss will be precisely enough to whip the rock around to a new orbit. One precisely timed and angled to aim it towards Earth where it will impact on some particularly inconvenient location. Like the 2008 Olympics, the city of Jerusalem, or something else of political import.