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HD DVD Player Sales Grind To a Halt
Lucas123 writes "While the news may fall under the 'Duh' category, it's still relatively shocking how quickly the death knell for HD DVD player sales came on after Warner Bros. announced they were dropping dual hi-def DVD format support in order to back only Blu-ray. According to a Computerworld story, the week after Warner's announcement, sales of HD DVD players dropped to 1,758, down from 14,558 players the week before. In contrast, consumers bought 21,770 Blu-ray Disc players, up from 15,257 the previous week."
And that's why the rest of us wait for format wars to end.
Haida Manga
So, HD DVD lost 13,000 sales and Bluray only gained half that? I think maybe there's something else going on as well other than just the Warner deal.
"If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
Good point. If I was going to buy HD-DVD, I might wait fo rthe obvious price drops that are sure to come as HD-DVD liquidates away.
But the overall point, that this format war is over, stands. Toshiba has to get what they can, and will have sales and such, but it's over.
I'm no crotchety old man pining away for the the good old days, but it seems to me that DVDs are still working just fine. The format wars are a sometimes interesting diversion, but until HD TVs are the norm and DVDs leave the market altogether, the format war is largely meaningless to most. My SD TV works just fine and until it stops working and/or HD comes down in price another $500USD or so, Blu-ray vs HD-DVD is a nonissue for many if not most. Oh, and that says nothing about digital delivery making physical disks totally irrelevant.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
While the media and CE companies wanted this format war, the consumer didn't. Some chose sides, most of us have been waiting for a sign of who's winning. This was appearing to be Blu-Ray earlier in 2007, which is what prompted Microsoft/Toshiba to pony up the cash to keep Paramount HD-DVD only for 18 months.... thus prolonging the war, in theory.
The Warner announcement tipped the scales, and most consumers were ready for a winner to be declared. This is the kind of thing that becomes self-fulfilling -- customers want it tipped one way or another, and if they see the tip enough, everyone goes over to that side of the see-saw as fast as possible... particularly if Sony can stop shooting themselves in the foot by redesigning Blu-Ray every three months (ok, most of the new stuff is totally optional, but it doesn't help their case to create more customer confusion).
Obviously, Toshiba will try to lure back sales by slashing prices. The most interesting thing about HD-DVD is also the problem -- Toshiba can do this, because they're running HD-DVD like it's a gaming console (whether by choice or not, I don't know)... they sell all of the hardware, they get money back on licencing fees, so they can afford to blow out systems at cost, or even below cost, just as Sony and MS do with their games consoles (at least when they're new.. eventually, they want to get profitable on the HW).
-Dave Haynie
For the millionth time, Blu-ray isn't just a sony product. Lots of companies make and market disks and players. Sony's the best known of them, to be sure, but they are not standing alone here.
I have a 46" 1080p Samsung LCD with a 1080p upconverting DVD player. DVDs look fantastic on this equipment. I see no value in upgrading to either high-def format - especially considering the price of the media. When I can get a brand new DVD for $15 or a gently used one for under $10 and the high-def format discs are still $25 or more, color me uninterested.
I don't think that's it's a foregone conclusion that either format is going to win out. Look at what happened to SACD and DVD-Audio.
Curiosity was framed, Ignorance killed the cat.
As an aside, one thing that really pisses me off about this war are claims that the end of the format war would be good for consumers. This is as logical as saying that Windows and IE should be universal -- good for consumers.
That's not even remotely the same thing. We're talking about formats here - interoperability is the important thing here. The analogous situation wouldn't be a universal Internet Explorer, it would be a universal HTML format. The competition between web browsers is reflected by the competition between player manufacturers.
Do you think the world would be better off with a version of HTML that only works in Internet Explorer and a version of HTML that only works in Firefox? Because that's the type of situation here.
I honestly can't decide which amazes me the most.
The fact that people are surprised that after a studio said they'd not support it, the sales fell. Or the fact that people were willing to buy the disks in the middle of a format war when they had no guarantee it would last.
I mean, really, there was uncertainty over which would win out, and what would happen to the other. I realize if you've spent several thousand dollars on your hi-def kit you want to be able to see stuff with it, but I've always thought this whole hi-def format war was something I'd wait out.
Hell, if you bought an HDTV more than a few years ago, aren't you hosed since they've changed all of the specs and the whole HDMI debacle.
With early adoption comes the prospect of a lot of pain down the road.
Cheers
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
I know of several PS3 owners. Some of them only have the free blu-rays. Fair enough. None of them are unaware of the HD disc abilities, but some just don't watch movies. The statistics reflect this reality, so I see no reason to adjust things strangely. The war is over so it's moot. But I noticed many people using TOTAL PS3 sales while only using US attach rates/media sales. The US sales ratio were roughly 2:1 BD:HDDVD. The UK sales ratio was roughly 4:1 BD:HDDVD. The Japanese sales ratio was 9:1 BD:HDDVD. I don't know a single PS3 owner who does not also own a BD movie. Not 1.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
We're all hypocrites. We all have hidden parts, it's the contrast between them that make us more a hypocrite than others
Until your player stops working in a few years, as all electronics eventually do. And then you won't be able to get a replacement HD-DVD player.
There are 378 HD-DVD movies on the market.
During the week following Warner's announcement -- a period in which the HD-DVD group went into hiding while they regrouped -- FUD went absolutely rampant.
The thing is about FUD (Fear, Uncertanty, Doubt) is that it can be caused by true things as well as false.
Face it, Paramount and Universal going at least neutral if not exclusive is now 100% certain. A format designed explicitly for movie playing, cannot survive when it has only 20% of titles ad not even very many good titles at that (look at the HD-DVD upcoming releases compared to Blu-Ray!). It cannot survive when media sales have fallen to the extent they have. It cannot survive when major retailors are phasing it out (take a look at the HD-DVD section in your local Best Buy and notice how many titles are flat facing outward instead of on-end...)
Reports are that sales have been absolutely massive,
Player sales - not media sales. Remember the point of this format war is not to sell players below cost, but to sell media. What were the numbers for the previous weeks sales? 83:17, for Blu-Ray. The week before that? 85:15, Blu-Ray (NPD figures). The last weeks figures include the time period of Toshiba's "massive" player sales.
People buying HD-DVD players at this point are looking for an upconverting DVD player on the cheap - nothing more. And remember that even with massive player sales from Toshiba, Blu-Ray players are still outselling hem by a huge margin if you factor in the PS3 (and realistically you must factor in the PS3 for player sales somehow).
As an aside, one thing that really pisses me off about this war are claims that the end of the format war would be good for consumers. This is as logical as saying that Windows and IE should be universal -- good for consumers.
You know what pisses me off? People thinking the format war, which kept consumers from BOTH formats. was in any way healthy. Remember that on the Blu-Ray side you have a whole ecosystem - many companies making players, many companies making media. Competition keeps prices down and quality up. But if no consumers buy into a format your supposed "competition doesn't matter because it's like having tow competing saloons in a ghost town. Would the world be a better place if we had multiple competing HTML formats, and you had to pay $300 for a browser that supported both?
I'm very sorry your format lost. But the sooner all HD-DVD supporters face this the better off the HD media industry will be as a whole. Isn't that what it's really all about, the movies? If you care at all about having HD media on a physical format prosper, you'll throw your full backing behind Blu-Ray and help to convince people it's worth while switching from DVD. It's pretty easy to do if you have a half decent setup, even 720p is so much more obviously better than upscaled content that it doesn't take much of a demonstration.
I think a major uptick for HD media will be the elimination of analog broadcast next year - people will get fed up with converter boxes and just get newer TV's (especially since you get HD programming for free). At that point HD media sales can also really take off. So it's important to have a good solid format at that point that's easy for consumers to choose.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I didn't mean to imply that MS made a mistake by opting not to bundle the HD-DVD player with the 360. It was just pointing out why it was that MS made that decision, but Sony didn't. Essentially Sony was using the PS3 to boost Blu-ray sales and help out some of their non-gaming divisions. To a certain extent it's obvious why MS didn't feel particularly motivated to push HD-DVD. Even though they would profit some, being one of the backing companies for the format, not being a hardware manufacturer (to any real extent) they actually have little profit motive, and they also know that the biggest money maker on their console outside the games themselves is the online content of Live. Bundling a HD-DVD player would have just jacked up the price and reduced console sales. They would very likely never see an adequate return on investment from that strategy even if it had lead HD-DVD to dominate. Sony on the other hand, had they not bundled Blu-ray with the PS3 might have seen better sales of the PS3, but would take a hit selling Blu-ray DVD players.
Curiosity was framed, Ignorance killed the cat.
Considering a search for 8-track player yields 371 results over at ebay right now, I'm not sure that is a huge problem.
Getting the PS3 for a Blu-Ray player is smart because not too many Blu-Ray players have ethernet connections to update the firmware, but the PS3 does.
I would have liked to see if these numbers were just for the US. What about worldwide where these exclusive deals don't matter?
Can I bum a sig?
Eh, the gaming market is a very interesting animal. The short product life-cycles, combined with the limited competition, large costs, and proprietary nature of the products, plus the added confusion of customer and developer loyalties and tastes makes it very hard to make any accurate predictions.
Just as a quick example take a look at what's happened to Nintendo over the years, particularly the last two generations of consoles. Nintendo went from the top contender with the SNES, dropped to second with the N64, and then trailed a distant third with the Gamecube, only to make a surprise comeback with the Wii. Prior to it's launch no one was really certain how the Wii would do, and in fact many of the top analysts were predicting that it might be the system that finally killed Nintendo. Obviously looking at just the raw specs for the system it doesn't look like much of a contender when put up against the likes of the 360 and PS3. But there's more to it of course then raw specs, as the Wii's surprise success has shown.
As for the developer relations MS earned with the 360, I don't know. It definitely won't hurt them I think, but time will tell if the sacrifices they made rushing the 360 to market (most obvious seems to be the ridiculous 30% defect rate) was worth it or not. It may turn out that could have gotten the same result by simply bribing developers, but then again, maybe not. One things for certain, the choices that Sony made up till this point definitely don't seem to be working in their favor, but of course they still have plenty of time to turn it around and prove all the doubters wrong. It will be interesting to see if after the dust settles on this and Blu-Ray is declared the winner of the format war, sales of PS3s will pickup.
Curiosity was framed, Ignorance killed the cat.
* Apple Inc.
* Dell Inc.
* Hewlett-Packard Company
* Hitachi, Ltd.
* LG Electronics
* Mitsubishi Electric
* Panasonic (Matsushita Electric)
* Pioneer Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics
* Samsung Electronics
* Sharp Corporation
* Sony Corporation
* Sun Microsystems
* TDK Corporation
* Thomson SA
* Twentieth Century Fox
* Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group / Buena Vista Home Entertainment
* Warner Home Video Inc.
That is basically every major player in consumer electronics and most of the major Hollywood studios with the exception of Toshiba. Every format is in fact a standard because a standard is: A technical standard is an established norm or requirement. It is usually a formal document that establishes uniform engineering or technical criteria, methods, processes and practices.
A standard can be developed privately or unilaterally, for example by a corporation, regulatory body, military, etc. Standards can also be developed by groups such as trade unions, and trade associations. Standards organizations usually have more diverse input and usually develop voluntary standards: these might become mandatory if adopted by a government, business contract, etc.
The standardization process may be by edict or may involve the formal consensus of technical experts. -Wikipedia:standard
No part of that implies a standard must be the only player in it's niche or even a majority player.
Your just blathering on about some nonsensical argument. HD DVD was a standard as well. You had to conform to a technical spec and pay the consortium a fee to place a HD DVD brand on it. The two format were virtually identical in all important ways except support, region codes and capacity. Your bizzare argument over "standard" and "proprietary" applies to HD DVD as well. It also doesn't make much sense to develop a standard and then not push it into your latest electronics does it? I'm not sure of how you can really mentally contort yourself in that way. We had 2 formats. About roughly the same merits and drawbacks and then a power play via the content producers who decided the winning format. At no point was HD DVD some open format. At no point was either DRM free, non-Proprietary, backed by one company, or in some drastic way superior. It was a battle of two morally, technically, and economically equal entities.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
Imagine if every media company released every disc in DVD, Blu-ray and HD-DVD (the cost to them is marginal.
And you have access to pricing figures for the studios to back up this "cost to them is marginal" argument, I would assume? Of course you don't. Such data is not published. Your are speculating out your wazoo, and you are wrong.
HD-DVD's most-trumpeted advantage is its ability to make use of existing DVD production facilities with only minor refits. No need to scrap the entire production line, you just upgrade it a bit. Blu-ray is fundamentally different in disc construction and has no such advantage. This was a conscious choice on the part of Sony. They sacrificed backwards compatibility of production equipment to get a more advanced disc structure. In this they have succeeded, as Blu-ray has scaled to 200GB capacities on an eight-layer disc in the lab. HD-DVD has scaled to 51GB with triple-layer discs in the lab. There is no comparison.
Studios that produce in both formats have to pay production houses to stamp them. The production houses have a choice of going exclusive with one format or gearing up to produce both.
The former situation requires the studios to negotiate separately with two production facilities, but (and here is the key) they're effectively splitting the number of discs produced in half for each facility. This hurts the studio's buying power just like it would hurt anyone else: more quantity equals lower prices. For disc production this is particularly acute because there is a very high cost to create the line to produce even one disc. The more discs you can stamp on that line, the cheaper it gets on a per-disc basis.
The latter situation requires the production house to foot the bill for two very different (and mutually incompatible) production lines. This is no small cost, and that cost is passed on to the studios when they order a run of discs.
So, no matter how you play it, your statement that "it doesn't cost more to do both formats" is completely without merit. It does cost more, more to author (HD-DVD and Blu-ray authoring tools are both incompatible and very expensive), more to produce (as outlined above), more to distribute (remember, two different kinds of packaging), and more to stock (there's only so much shelf space in stores).
This kind of lets the air out of your whole its-a-corporate-conspiracy argument, doesn't it?
In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
I kinda feel like it wasn't the Warner Bros. announcement that did it, but more the reaction by the geek community to it. After the announcement, pretty much everyone in the geek community who cared immediately declared Bluray the winner. To me, this had way more impact than the loss of Warner Bros. Because it causes a chain reaction of "information" being spread all over the internet how HD-DVD is dead. So now, when consumers try to do some research on HD-DVD they find blogs and articles all saying Bluray is the winner. I would also imagine that this also effected sales reps in places like BestBuy where you have pseudo geek employees repeating all stuff they read on the internet to there customers.
All in all, this is a formula for a runaway sales drop in HD-DVD. Which to be honest, I am happy about, I _want_ there to be a winner (though I wish Sony didn't benefit from it...). But now I am getting to the point where I don't feel a purchase would potentially be for the losing format.
So in the end, I think that enough people said it was happening to the point where it made it happen.