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HD DVD Player Sales Grind To a Halt
Lucas123 writes "While the news may fall under the 'Duh' category, it's still relatively shocking how quickly the death knell for HD DVD player sales came on after Warner Bros. announced they were dropping dual hi-def DVD format support in order to back only Blu-ray. According to a Computerworld story, the week after Warner's announcement, sales of HD DVD players dropped to 1,758, down from 14,558 players the week before. In contrast, consumers bought 21,770 Blu-ray Disc players, up from 15,257 the previous week."
Previously, I had heard that the total sales for blue ray players included sales of PS3 consoles. Are they included in these numbers as well? I know that there are certainly people out there who bought PS3's with the intention of playing PS3 games, and didn't really care that they could play blue ray movies as well.
That said, of course the loss of another studio from HD DVD to Blue Ray likely didn't hurt sales of stand-alone blue ray players, either.
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
And as the article points out, the information from that week is useful to gauge sales for that one week only. Since Toshiba responded the following week with massive price cuts, the sales figures will be drastically different for the following weeks. Basically, these numbers will be all over the map for a while, and won't be useful for generating any sort of trend. That said, it is clear that HD DVD will be going away soon.
And that's why the rest of us wait for format wars to end.
Haida Manga
I, like I'm sure many other average-joe consumers, have been just WAITING for the decision to be made before going out and spending hard earned cash on a high-def player.
Warner Brothers moving to BluRay, along with rumors of Universal and Paramount possibly following suit, have really been a good sign.
I bought PS3 (and Rock Band!) pretty quickly after the news came out.
During the week following Warner's announcement -- a period in which the HD-DVD group went into hiding while they regrouped -- FUD went absolutely rampant. Eclipsing the damage of Warner's announcement were rumors from so-called insiders that Paramount and Universal were also jumping ship, along with the standard claims that the adult industry was going blu. If you do a news search on HD-DVD right now you'll continue to find the same FUD, blown into a life of its own by blogger referencing blogger referencing blogger, repeating the same disproven claim.
In this vacuum of information, there's no surprise that HD-DVD sales collapsed, and it isn't because of the loss of Warner's catalog.
Since then the outcome is much less certain, however. Toshiba hasn't just conceded (and they shouldn't -- just prior to Warner's announcement it was 50/50), but instead they've come out swinging, dropping the price of their units by half (obviously it has to be cheap to compete with a format that largely was acquired for "free" as an added value of a game system). This price puts a very capable HD-DVD player with ethernet, HDMI, optical audio, and so on, as cost competitive with a decent upscaling DVD player -- and the Toshiba unit is a very good upscaling player. Add the 7 or more free HD-DVD movies that'll work forever even if HD-DVD dies, and a catalog of 1000 or so HD-DVD movies already on the market, it's a hell of a deal. If someone could hack this baby to be a media head unit it would absolutely own.
Reports are that sales have been absolutely massive, and Toshiba's campaign has been a success. Warner since has extended their HD-DVD support by almost a month, and other very positive rumors have circulated about HD-DVD.
Don't write HD-DVD off quite yet.
As an aside, one thing that really pisses me off about this war are claims that the end of the format war would be good for consumers. This is as logical as saying that Windows and IE should be universal -- good for consumers. Worse, Blu-ray has so many consumer-unfriendly facets (cost, no combo discs, a standard that's still in flux, early adopters getting screwed, the nebulous DRM of BD+) that it winning can never be perceived as a consumer win. Yeah, I'm biased because I didn't choose a format to win based upon a game unit I happened to buy.
So, HD DVD lost 13,000 sales and Bluray only gained half that? I think maybe there's something else going on as well other than just the Warner deal.
"If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
I think this says it all.
No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
I'm no crotchety old man pining away for the the good old days, but it seems to me that DVDs are still working just fine. The format wars are a sometimes interesting diversion, but until HD TVs are the norm and DVDs leave the market altogether, the format war is largely meaningless to most. My SD TV works just fine and until it stops working and/or HD comes down in price another $500USD or so, Blu-ray vs HD-DVD is a nonissue for many if not most. Oh, and that says nothing about digital delivery making physical disks totally irrelevant.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
The folks at NPD have already said not to make too much of these numbers. Not only do they reflect a single week of data immediately following the Warner announcement and prior to Toshiba cutting prices in half, there were also free Blu-ray player promotions from Panasonic, Sharp and Sony. Easy to "sell" a lot of units when the price tag is $0.
From Beta to MiniDisc to Memory Stick, Sony never successfully pushes a format on the market. I can only conclude that BluRay will be supplanted by an as-of-yet-unrevealed third technology. My fragile worldview cannot accept any other alternatives.
One of the rationals of doing an external player was so that they could just make a blu-ray addon if HD-DVD didn't win. The main difference is that blu-ray and the PS3 are intimately intertwined. However, the 360 is just a video game machine that you can buy an add-on movie player too. Very few people (that I know of) bought the 360 as a movie player, compared at least, to the apparent many that bought the PS3 for its movie ability. So for all intent the HD-DVD addon, will suffer the same fate as a standalone player, and have little affect on the 360.
While the media and CE companies wanted this format war, the consumer didn't. Some chose sides, most of us have been waiting for a sign of who's winning. This was appearing to be Blu-Ray earlier in 2007, which is what prompted Microsoft/Toshiba to pony up the cash to keep Paramount HD-DVD only for 18 months.... thus prolonging the war, in theory.
The Warner announcement tipped the scales, and most consumers were ready for a winner to be declared. This is the kind of thing that becomes self-fulfilling -- customers want it tipped one way or another, and if they see the tip enough, everyone goes over to that side of the see-saw as fast as possible... particularly if Sony can stop shooting themselves in the foot by redesigning Blu-Ray every three months (ok, most of the new stuff is totally optional, but it doesn't help their case to create more customer confusion).
Obviously, Toshiba will try to lure back sales by slashing prices. The most interesting thing about HD-DVD is also the problem -- Toshiba can do this, because they're running HD-DVD like it's a gaming console (whether by choice or not, I don't know)... they sell all of the hardware, they get money back on licencing fees, so they can afford to blow out systems at cost, or even below cost, just as Sony and MS do with their games consoles (at least when they're new.. eventually, they want to get profitable on the HW).
-Dave Haynie
I have a 46" 1080p Samsung LCD with a 1080p upconverting DVD player. DVDs look fantastic on this equipment. I see no value in upgrading to either high-def format - especially considering the price of the media. When I can get a brand new DVD for $15 or a gently used one for under $10 and the high-def format discs are still $25 or more, color me uninterested.
I don't think that's it's a foregone conclusion that either format is going to win out. Look at what happened to SACD and DVD-Audio.
PS3 sales also spiked pretty well. Remember, if you are suddenly looking for a Blu-Ray player. the PS3 is a very appealing choice - even if all you use it for is Blu-Ray, with the remote it's good as any other dedicated player (and better really since it's future proof and so easy to connect to a network connection wirelessly).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I honestly can't decide which amazes me the most.
The fact that people are surprised that after a studio said they'd not support it, the sales fell. Or the fact that people were willing to buy the disks in the middle of a format war when they had no guarantee it would last.
I mean, really, there was uncertainty over which would win out, and what would happen to the other. I realize if you've spent several thousand dollars on your hi-def kit you want to be able to see stuff with it, but I've always thought this whole hi-def format war was something I'd wait out.
Hell, if you bought an HDTV more than a few years ago, aren't you hosed since they've changed all of the specs and the whole HDMI debacle.
With early adoption comes the prospect of a lot of pain down the road.
Cheers
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
I found this quality comparison of different HD sources (Cable, FIOS, Blue Ray, etc...) to be interesting:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Ou/?p=962
We're all hypocrites. We all have hidden parts, it's the contrast between them that make us more a hypocrite than others
During the week following Warner's announcement -- a period in which the HD-DVD group went into hiding while they regrouped -- FUD went absolutely rampant.
The thing is about FUD (Fear, Uncertanty, Doubt) is that it can be caused by true things as well as false.
Face it, Paramount and Universal going at least neutral if not exclusive is now 100% certain. A format designed explicitly for movie playing, cannot survive when it has only 20% of titles ad not even very many good titles at that (look at the HD-DVD upcoming releases compared to Blu-Ray!). It cannot survive when media sales have fallen to the extent they have. It cannot survive when major retailors are phasing it out (take a look at the HD-DVD section in your local Best Buy and notice how many titles are flat facing outward instead of on-end...)
Reports are that sales have been absolutely massive,
Player sales - not media sales. Remember the point of this format war is not to sell players below cost, but to sell media. What were the numbers for the previous weeks sales? 83:17, for Blu-Ray. The week before that? 85:15, Blu-Ray (NPD figures). The last weeks figures include the time period of Toshiba's "massive" player sales.
People buying HD-DVD players at this point are looking for an upconverting DVD player on the cheap - nothing more. And remember that even with massive player sales from Toshiba, Blu-Ray players are still outselling hem by a huge margin if you factor in the PS3 (and realistically you must factor in the PS3 for player sales somehow).
As an aside, one thing that really pisses me off about this war are claims that the end of the format war would be good for consumers. This is as logical as saying that Windows and IE should be universal -- good for consumers.
You know what pisses me off? People thinking the format war, which kept consumers from BOTH formats. was in any way healthy. Remember that on the Blu-Ray side you have a whole ecosystem - many companies making players, many companies making media. Competition keeps prices down and quality up. But if no consumers buy into a format your supposed "competition doesn't matter because it's like having tow competing saloons in a ghost town. Would the world be a better place if we had multiple competing HTML formats, and you had to pay $300 for a browser that supported both?
I'm very sorry your format lost. But the sooner all HD-DVD supporters face this the better off the HD media industry will be as a whole. Isn't that what it's really all about, the movies? If you care at all about having HD media on a physical format prosper, you'll throw your full backing behind Blu-Ray and help to convince people it's worth while switching from DVD. It's pretty easy to do if you have a half decent setup, even 720p is so much more obviously better than upscaled content that it doesn't take much of a demonstration.
I think a major uptick for HD media will be the elimination of analog broadcast next year - people will get fed up with converter boxes and just get newer TV's (especially since you get HD programming for free). At that point HD media sales can also really take off. So it's important to have a good solid format at that point that's easy for consumers to choose.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I pretty much did the same thing, I bought the PS3 mainly for the Blu-Ray. Why is this having "a lot of cash to burn"?
I wanted a Blu-Ray player, and the PS3 was only $80 more than a pure player, and it got good ratings on the quality of movie playback. I figured the extra $80 was worth getting a game console and media center thrown in. Seems like good economic sense to me.
Getting the PS3 for a Blu-Ray player is smart because not too many Blu-Ray players have ethernet connections to update the firmware, but the PS3 does.
I would have liked to see if these numbers were just for the US. What about worldwide where these exclusive deals don't matter?
Can I bum a sig?
$200 players are still having a hard time compared to the new and finally coming into its own PS3s for $399. Yes, it took a long time, but the PS2 also took about a year or two to really take hold as well, if you remember. As it is, you can have your HDTV compatible player and a gaming box all in one package. Plus, the resale value on a PS3 is also surprisingly high, often 75% of what they sold for new.
And there's talk of a PS3 without a hard drive and a few less features for even less money in the future(reminds me of the PS2 "slim" model release). Sony ended up making the right choice here as it forced people to buy the player as well with the console and lock millions of people into Blu-Ray.
IMO, it was the computer crowd that finally pushed it over the edge to win it. Blu-Ray burners and media can be found fairly easily, and with the backing of most of the computer giants as well, it was only a mater of time before it won out.
P.S. The actual laser assembly itself, which is what makes the drive different than a DVD drive aside from a few basic decoding chips and such *retails* for about $70. A $100 Blu-Ray reader should be no problem at all.(once analog TV is dropped in a year, it'll happen for sure)
I kinda feel like it wasn't the Warner Bros. announcement that did it, but more the reaction by the geek community to it. After the announcement, pretty much everyone in the geek community who cared immediately declared Bluray the winner. To me, this had way more impact than the loss of Warner Bros. Because it causes a chain reaction of "information" being spread all over the internet how HD-DVD is dead. So now, when consumers try to do some research on HD-DVD they find blogs and articles all saying Bluray is the winner. I would also imagine that this also effected sales reps in places like BestBuy where you have pseudo geek employees repeating all stuff they read on the internet to there customers.
All in all, this is a formula for a runaway sales drop in HD-DVD. Which to be honest, I am happy about, I _want_ there to be a winner (though I wish Sony didn't benefit from it...). But now I am getting to the point where I don't feel a purchase would potentially be for the losing format.
So in the end, I think that enough people said it was happening to the point where it made it happen.