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Math on iPhones Just Doesn't Add Up?
Tech Dirt is reporting that recently announced numbers by Apple and AT&T suggest that there is a large gap (1.7 million) between the number of iPhones being sold and those being activated. Taking into account factors like the iPhone launching outside the US and a 20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for. "[...] suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory."
Uh, unlocking perhaps? I saw some stats saying 1 in every 3 is unlocked.
So is it really more likely there are 700,000 mysteriously missing iPhones, or perhaps the number of people buying them to unlock is higher than they think?
Does the number of ATT activations also include the pre-paid plans, or just the contracts?
How about Apple and Rogers getting together and selling those iPhones to us up here in Canada? We feel neglected!
I wish I had a product that sold as "poorly" as the iPhone.
Course some of us can settle for having just one billion $$$ instead of dozens.
I think the likely reason for the large difference is that AT&T is simply giving you a total number of users who activated a phone on the Specific iphone plans and it does not include users who are blending the data only plan addition with a regular voice plan.
Many people will need more minutes than the regular iphone specific plans can deliver or wanted to keep their existing plan and simply add the iphone features to it.
Or AT&T simply doesn't like paying Apple and they are looking for ways to under report the activations of iphones until after the customers window to cancel without penalties expire or something like that.
Actually, it had been said that the hardware in the iPhone costs 200$ or so. If that's true then Apple is not losing money on those unlocked iPhones.
The share they get from ATT is just more profit.
Also, the iPhone is said to have cost 150 million $ in development. Not such a big deal when they sell millions of them with a decent margin.
There is a lot of speculation about this device, isn't there?
A $499 iPod touch with phone capabilities and locked into America's most evil telco isn't selling! I am well and truly shocked! I never suspected this would happen!
1. It is selling.
2. It's locked into AT&T/Cingular/SBC/whatever, not Verizon.
That's called channel stuffing, and Microsoft has done it quite a few times with the Zune, XBox, and XBox 360 in order to temporarily inflate the sales numbers. What happens is after you've done that, those stores don't need to order more for a while, so after your "great sales" period, you'll get a "low sales" period as the old units get cleared out.
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
I went poking around AT&T's investor relations site, and it seems to me (though I didn't spend a whole lot of time there) that the 2 million number is the number of new AT&T customers who switched to AT&T wireless because of the iPhone. This does not count customers (such as myself) who kept my existing service but switched devices (in my case, from a Motorola RAZR to an iPhone).
If this is the case, it would explain a large amount of that gap.
I think part of the problem here is that the major media would like to report that the iPhone is a dismal failure somehow--and channel stuffing (a'la Microsoft's channel stuffing of the Zune) is one way to paint this picture. However, given the number of units I've seen on the shelves at the various stores I've gone to, I cannot imagine that 30% of Apple's iPhone stock was stuffed into the channel: that would mean that every Apple and AT&T store would have a mountain of iPhones sitting in the corner, and I'm not seeing it.
That brings up an interesting point...
Perhaps some poeple who bought 2 Baught one to use and kept one in its origional package as a collectors item... Like some colectors do with Comics, or with some toys.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
Nope. It's that nobody wants to do business with AT&T, which is the only phone service that will allow one to USE an iPhone.
Yet.
Let me get this straight: if we pull a number like 20% out of our ass, as our estimate for part of the accounting, then not all the phones are accounted for. Here's a tip: maybe a different completely arbitrary number will work better than the first completely arbitrary number.
As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
Most manufacturers do it. Actually, it is one of those things that happens because it is hard to know how many units have been sold by the retailers who are not part of your company. Of course, many manufacturers further game this by giving incentives to retailers that encourage them to stock up on an item beyond what anyone expects them to sell at certain times to make the numbers look better for a particular report (figuring that no one will be paying attention to the next report). Additionally, the manufacturer hopes that the hype created by them "selling" so many units will increase the demand in the following time frame over what it otherwise would have been. This used to work better than it does now because people have figured out that the hyped numbers are exaggerated.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
"When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
No, silly-pants, this has nothing to do with some giant culture war. You made a joke and somebody thought it wasn't funny. As always throughout history, every time you use humor you are taking a risk. That's what makes humor interesting and why comedians have thick skins. If you get upset when people don't like your jokes, perhaps humor is not for you.
I have seen the future, and it is inconvenient.
Nintendo does too... but in their case shipped and sold happen to be the same number lately.
Where did this $100/month contract meme come from? This is the second time it has been posted in this thread alone and I can't figure out where it came from. The only thing I know for sure is that it didn't come from reality. The basic iPhone plan (the one that almost everybody would get unless they're a salesguy or a teenage girl) is $60/month. Still kinda high, but with unlimited data (most cell data plans are pure rape) it's not completely unreasonable. The idea is if you plunking down the big bucks for the phone in the first place you can afford an extra $20/month on your phone bill over your existing non-data phone. It works out to a $240/year premium to own a phone that can hit google whenever you want. If that's not for you, don't get the iPhone.
I read the internet for the articles.
There probably are some phones that people got as gifts over the holidays but haven't activated yet due to waiting for the contract with a prior carrier to run out.
Another possible factor is that the numbers used may be an AT&T report of new customers, excluding people who were already using AT&T cell service before getting an iPhone.
um Ihave never replaced the battery in any phone I have ever owned. they are on 24hours a day. I charge them while they are on. by the time the battery goes weak in my phones 2-3 years have passed and I am thinking about a new one anyways. If you talk so much during he day that your phone can't keep a charge for one day you should try doing less talking.
i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
So now we have two choices: Either Apple has done things that will get them into deep trouble, and most likely someone into jail. Or, as unlikely as it may sound, there is just a blogger you can't get his numbers right. Or, of course, 700,000 iPhones are still wrapped up under 700,000 Christmas trees. Now what do you think is most likely?
Yeah, well, it's kinda like the difference between a key for a Ferrari vs the key for a Ford.
Style, man. STYLE
You may hate Apple for doing the box that way, but to ME, it shows a company going all out to make something the best they can possibly make it the moment the end user comes into contact with the product.
Fine wine doesn't come in a plastic jug, does it? So, for Apple, a fine electronic device such as the iPhone should come in a nice box, too. Macs are expensive yet aren't the fastest computers out there, despite the hype. But you couldn't get a mac user to switch to a PC just because it was cheaper or faster. Why? I think it's the experience. Any Mac-o-philes care to chime in?
No, I don't have an iphone, I don't own a mac, and I'm not a mac fanboy, either.
Flappinbooger isn't my real name
Your one-dimensional analogy burns my eyes.
Yes, you can build better desktops than mac desktops. Yes, some laptops can outspec mac laptops for less (although usually this happens with dell where they do this by sacrificing the form factor, leaving you with a thick plug-to-plug behemoth). But the PCs can't run mac software, and right there that's all the performance gap anyone needs.
Sorry, but OSX or gtfo. And the virtualization for other OSs is cheap and easy on a mac, so it's hard to argue against it now. Please let this tired argument die out and instead argue on less tired freedom and openness and flexibility grounds as opposed to "zomg my video card is better!"
Slashdot. It's Not For Common Sense
Well, the guy I replied to with the Key analogy was discussing the box, I was sort of equating the key to a car to the box the iphone comes in. To compare the main component (the car, or the iphone) might break the analogy.
... Hey, it works! Bon!
... it's Italian and you feel really good about it.
Regardless, I've worked with Italian equipment, and Italians. They are good engineers and take great pride in workmanship. They also are very much into aesthetics and style. Very much. But, the Italian culture is way way different than that of the USA. To make a hasty generality, American engineers always always always focus on function above form. The Italians are so relaxed and laid back, they put things off or get things just good enough and let it go. As long as it just works, and as long as it looks good, it's fine. That's why they only crack down on the mafia when they become embarrassing. Out of sight, out of mind.
Here's an example. The PLC on a piece of equipment in Europe probably is going to be Siemens. In the USA, the PLC will be Allen Bradley, more likely than not. Well, if we would sell a piece of Italian equipment in the US, we would sell it with AB. They didn't want to completely rewrite the fairly extensive PLC program, so they employed a translation program that converted it from Siemens to AB. Polish it up a bit, and it works. But anyone with a clue who looks at it finds it to be spaghettied up and a clumsy mess. Whether it was spaghettied up and clumsy before, I don't know for sure, but
Now, don't get me wrong, the machines were very refined, worked very smoothly, had a lot of ingenious and elegant features, and look quite stylish. And had some not-insignificant shortcomings that you overlook because
Now I've figured it out - Steve Jobs is Italian!
Hey, get ahold of and watch the first episode of season 10 of Top Gear. When Clarkson is driving the Lambo and can't get the gas cap open - That sums it up.
Flappinbooger isn't my real name