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Math on iPhones Just Doesn't Add Up?
Tech Dirt is reporting that recently announced numbers by Apple and AT&T suggest that there is a large gap (1.7 million) between the number of iPhones being sold and those being activated. Taking into account factors like the iPhone launching outside the US and a 20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for. "[...] suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory."
Surely some small percentage of phones are being unlocked, but did you ever stop to think that maybe the numbers are off because AT&T hasn't reported yet how many iPhone subscribers there are for December/January and there were probably tens of thousands of iPhones purchased as Christmas gifts that sat under a tree and just barely got activated in the last couple of weeks?
"When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
Mine certainly is unlocked and jailbroken.
And I have this to say to Apple and Jobs.
Service plans for the iPhone start at $59.99/mo, which is $39.99 for the voice line and $20 for data. I added another iPhone for my wife for another $20 (data plan).
$100/month? What country do you live in? I'm paying $60/month and that includes unlimited data.
rm -rf
It almost certainly only include post-paid activations.
When carriers report their subscriber numbers they focus almost exclusively, in the US anyways, on post-paid subscribers.
You get a +1 insightful kudos sir, I hadn't considered this possibility until you mentioned it.
Thumbs down on the blog link - the original CNet news story (link) is much more detailed and has this tidbit - Based on the number of "missing" iPhones, each of the 4,400 worldwide iPhone retailers "had more than 150 units of channel inventory at the beginning of this year" which sure sounds like they're counting them F.O.B. from Apple's warehouse door, not when it's actually sold to a consumer.
Did you actually read the article? It's basically about how $ucky the iPhone combined with an AT&T contract is and suggests that tons of units are either being unlocked w/out activation (likely) or simply sitting on store shelves (less likely).
Does that sound like an Apple-sponsored ad for their product to you?
"He Who Dares Wins"
I'm currently working in Dubai, and I know about 20 people who use unlocked iPhones. I also see people with iPhones everywhere I go, as they are sold in all the phone shops here (unlocked, of course). I also know a lot of people in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain who are using them... and the Middle East accounts for one of the highest numbers of mobile users anywhere in the world. So why do they estimate only 20% of iPhones being unlocked? I always thought it was closer to 50%
Depending on what state you live in, and what ATT can get away with, there are usually some monthly fees on top of your bill. Like the taxes from the local government, and then the fee they charge you to pay the taxes, and whatever else they like to bilk from you. In Seattle my friend is on the $60/mo plan but has an additional $20 in fees from ATT to make it nearly $80/mo for his iPhone.
Still pretty dang expensive for me, even at the lowest rate. I'll sign on when I can get an iPhone for $200 and then pay $40/mo. I take after my dad who should have founded cheapbastard.com.
The discrepancy is probably because of sell-in and sell-thru numbers. This is what we use in the game industry atleast. The studio get profits from sell-in numbers; units that are in stores. Sell-thru numbers on the other hand are units that have been sold to the consumer. Apple is probably using sell-in numbers to make it look like there is a huge demand and that it is a hit. When they say they want to sell 2 million next year, they are really just saying we want that many units sold to the stores. The numbers will soon level out as most stores will be stocked and will stop ordering more, until they have sold out. Then the increase in sell-in and sell-thru will usually be around the same.
I purchased and activated through AT&T my first iPhone in September. Its touch screen failed and I received my second iPhone in October. That unit locked up and they gave me a third iPhone in December. So I have one account with AT&T yet 3 iPhones through Apple. If this situation of bad units is larger than reported, it's quite possible that several hundred thousand units can be accounted for as direct, free, replacement units (not sold).
Mike Helpingstine Chapel Hill, NC
Indeed. They are widely available, unlocked and pre-loaded with non-Apple extra software, in Thailand as well as China. I would assume them to be just as available in other countries where they are not yet released. 700,000 isn't that many phones to go "missing" to the worldwide market.
In Islam, Jesus is still a prophet, and a highly regarded one, he's just not the messiah like in Christianity. The Koran is based of the old testament but places more emphasis on the teachings of Mohammed.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.