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'Hundreds of Worlds' in Milky Way

Raphael Emportu writes "BBC news is reporting that rocky planets, possibly with conditions suitable for life, may be more common than previously thought in our galaxy, a study has found. New evidence suggests more than half the Sun-like stars in the Milky Way could have similar planetary systems. There may also be hundreds of undiscovered worlds in outer parts of our Solar System, astronomers believe. Future studies of such worlds will radically alter our understanding of how planets are formed, they say."

68 of 334 comments (clear)

  1. Re:sweet by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now to find a way of this rock onto one of those. Just keep typing stuff like of instead of off and leaving out conjunctions like and in between rock and onto and sooner or latter someone around here is sure to get pissed off enough to help you off of this rock. Getting onto one of the others is an entirely different story.
  2. No shit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No shit that there are other planets like ours out there. The incomprehensibly massive scale of the universe dictates it to be true, statistically-speaking.

    Today, children receive next to no education in the field of astronomy. Were they to have a proper understanding of what lies beyond Pluto, they'd probably grow up to realize how silly it is to believe that there is only one planet like Earth.

    1. Re:No shit. by Thanshin · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No shit that there are other planets like ours out there. The incomprehensibly massive scale of the universe dictates it to be true, statistically-speaking. 9 * 10^21 stars.

      It's big, but it's not so big.

      Imagine we discover:

      That the chance of a star to have planets is one in a million. Doesn't seem impossible, does it?

      The chance of a star with planets to have one at the correct distance (taking star heat in consideration) to be between 0 and 100 C, one in a billion.

      The chance of a planet in the correct position to have water. One in a million.

      So, we still have nine planets. Now, cross your fingers that one of those is not radioactive, doesn't show the same side to the star (that happens quite often), is big enough to have enough gravity to hold an atmosphere, etc.

      I've just invented the chance of those conditions to present, but they are not unreasonable. The universe is actually not so big when each of the very many conditions we need remove a chunk of it.
    2. Re:No shit. by Yvanhoe · · Score: 4, Informative

      That the chance of a star to have planets is one in a million. Doesn't seem impossible, does it? The survey of the closest stars around our solar system seem to contradict this. I don't have exact numbers, but too many planets were discovered within a 50 light-years radius to conclude that only one star in a million has a planet.

      Of course the Earth could be located in a statistical anomaly within the Milky Way, but if you posit a uniform repartition of planets, there has to be more.

      I am just nit-picking however. I fully agree with the rest of your post.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    3. Re:No shit. by beckerist · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe it's just me, but the formation of planets around their respective stars seems LOGICAL more than a statistical improbability. The universe is messy, and there's a LOT of extra junk kicked out during the formation of stars. That's not including all that stuff out there that's NOT glowing (though: not dark matter...I'm still talking normal matter here) that might be caught in the gravitational slings of their closest large neighbor.

      My point is: there's an awful lot that goes on in ANY system for us to assume we're a special case. MY prediction is that while sentience may be LESS probable, the formation of planets and large rocky bodies seems a no-brainer (and every week more observations seem to strengthen this contention.)

    4. Re:No shit. by meringuoid · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Imagine we discover: That the chance of a star to have planets is one in a million. Doesn't seem impossible, does it? The chance of a star with planets to have one at the correct distance (taking star heat in consideration) to be between 0 and 100 C, one in a billion. The chance of a planet in the correct position to have water. One in a million.

      Point 1: very long odds, given the number of extrasolar planets we've already discovered.
      Point 2: extremely long odds. It's a reasonably wide zone for the Sun, from about halfway between Earth and Venus out to Mars - which would probably be inhabitable if it were larger and could hold a thick atmosphere. Moreover the zone will shift as the star evolves and brightens, so a planet that starts out frozen may spring to life in later years. Come the red giant phase even Titan might bear life.
      Point 3: totally redundant. It just repeats point 2, but for some reason does so with a probability greater by a factor of one thousand. Counting the same criterion twice just to get the numbers down by a factor of a million is cheating.

      So, we still have nine planets. Now, cross your fingers that one of those is not radioactive, doesn't show the same side to the star (that happens quite often), is big enough to have enough gravity to hold an atmosphere, etc.

      How do you know that tidally locked planets are commonplace? There are none in our system.

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    5. Re:No shit. by cruachan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      These are just ridiculous figures. To start with the chances of a star having planets now appear to be way way lower than one in a million, given the rate at which we keep finding them even with our primative technologies (273 to date, with an estimate of at least on in 10 stars having planets).

      Once you have planets the odds of one being in a reasonably correct orbit for liquid water would now appear to be quite good as latest evidence indicates that it seems planets form wherever they can. Even being cautious it's difficult to see how a figure of one in a hundred systems with a a planet in a suitable position could be anything other than pesimistic. Anywhere from about 0.7AU out to 2 would be fine - Mars only just fails to have oceans because of it's low gravity.

      The most troublesome item on planet formation is one you don't mention - a large moon is really helpful to stabilize rotation, an even there we have two planets (well one is an ex-planet) in our system with relatively large moons.

      My personal feeling, with a biological background, is that if water-bearing planets are fairly common (and the indications are good) then life is probably everywhere, given that it seems to have arisen on Earth at the arliest opportunity we can conceive of it happening. The issue is most likely that the steps to 1) multicellular and 2) intelligent life seem much more likely to be rate limiting. The odds would seem to be there's green worlds out the aplenty, but very few with anyone to talk to.

    6. Re:No shit. by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2, Informative

      How do you know that tidally locked planets are commonplace? There are none in our system.

      None, except for Venus...

      But yes, I agree most of the numbers seem like poor WAGs, and the water point seemed redundant.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    7. Re:No shit. by HiThere · · Score: 2, Informative

      Sorry, there are lots of tidally locked bodies in our system, Luna would be called a planet if we were at all objective. It's tidally locked (to Earth). Mercury is tidally locked...it's a resonant lock, but it's still a lock. And Mercury *IS* called a planet.

      Still, any planets that are tidally locked will be very close to some larger body. If they're close to the sun, then they'll be out of the liquid water zone. If they're close to something else, then I don't see why that should exclude them as a home for life.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
  3. Well, it's nice to have a destination... by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Now, if we only had some means of reaching it...

    The speed of light is a barrier like few the humanity has ever found.

    1. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by somersault · · Score: 2, Funny

      It could be a bigger barrier getting everyone to stop playing Solar System of Warcraft long enough to get onboard the faster than light vessel... unless perhaps they have an exclusive SSoW expansion pack onboard the ship.. hmm..

      --
      which is totally what she said
    2. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Funny

      And to be intelligent on top of that. That barrier is so high that most humanity never got to surpass it.
    3. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by Mordaximus · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Not much bigger than the 'Earth is flat' barrier. It's only a matter of time before we reach the necessary level of understanding.

    4. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by rucs_hack · · Score: 3, Funny

      And have caek

    5. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The probability for intelligence seems to me to be the biggest hurdle. That humans are intelligent at all seems nothing more than a genetic fluke, and not a guaranteed outcome.

      However, given our understanding for life, and how it evolved, it would seem that complex life forms would probably NOT be rare at all.

      The biggest hurdles for human-like intelligence probably includes the following:

      1. Self replicating molecules. I'm not sure how precise the conditions for getting life started are, but it probably isn't something we would see very often.
      2. Conditions remaining stable for those molecules for a very long time.
      3. Symbiotic relationships developing between organisms. (requirement for multi-cellular life)
      4. The creativity mutation. (for lack of a better term.)

      In between, it seems that the process of natural selection would be the driving factor, but those 4 items listed are probably the most important 'leaps'.

      With regard to the creativity mutation: As I recall, there was a proto-human homonid that DID use tools, but never developed on that tool (The stone axe they used at the beginning of their existance was the same stone axe that they used at the end of their existance) And that period of time wasn't short, something on the order of millions of years where they used the exact stone axe. While they were using a tool, there was no real thought behind it. In that respect, it seems that it was much like a spider's web, a very precise tool for survival but instinct rather than a developed idea.

      --
      Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
    6. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by vertinox · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The speed of light is a barrier like few the humanity has ever found.

      Imagine if you would a cure to aging or a method to remain in stasis for hundreds or thousands of years. Once we get that out of the way, traveling to another solar system isn't that far fetched. It is suspect there is enough material in the vacuum of space between systems that could help refuel a fast traveling vessel to keep propulsion up and since there is no weather or space bacteria (that we know of) erosion and decay won't be much of a problem.

      Now, granted ones who take such a trip will most likley never see their home planet again or those who they left behind so it will take a brave bunch to spend those long times in stasis or simply entertaining themselves with what ever VR or holodeck they have in the future.

      I remember reading an article that if humans could at least travel close to the speed of light and sent ships from one planet to all the closest they could colonize and the repeat that the Galaxy could be colonized in about 1 million years. Now that seems a lot for us, but astronomically that is a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of millions of years it took nature to evolve intelligent life.

      Now if people like Aubrey de Grey do acheive their goals of life extension then traveling thousands of years may not be that big of a deal for humans in the future.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    7. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by TheAngryIntern · · Score: 2, Funny

      the caek is a lie

    8. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 4, Interesting

      With regard to the creativity mutation: As I recall, there was a proto-human homonid that DID use tools, but never developed on that tool (The stone axe they used at the beginning of their existance was the same stone axe that they used at the end of their existance) And that period of time wasn't short, something on the order of millions of years where they used the exact stone axe.

      I believe the specific hominid you are referring to is Homo Ergaster (Working Man).

      While they were using a tool, there was no real thought behind it. In that respect, it seems that it was much like a spider's web, a very precise tool for survival but instinct rather than a developed idea.

      I don't know if I agree with that assessment. It seems to me as if H. Ergaster simply progressed as far as his brain would allow, and no farther. A simple hand axe was just the apex of his ability. Looking at H. Ergaster makes me rather worried about the future of our species...after all, we haven't been around nearly as long. What if we run up against an innate limit in our brains, and our technology can proceed no further?

      --
      ____

      ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    9. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't know if I agree with that assessment. It seems to me as if H. Ergaster simply progressed as far as his brain would allow, and no farther. A simple hand axe was just the apex of his ability. Looking at H. Ergaster makes me rather worried about the future of our species...after all, we haven't been around nearly as long. What if we run up against an innate limit in our brains, and our technology can proceed no further?


      I think that it helps illustrate what is actually a non-distinct separation between H. Ergaster (thanks for identifying that) and modern humans.

      If it were the case that H. Ergaster simply reached the limits of their mental capacity, we should have seen other examples of tool use. We should be able to find species which developed tools a step or two beyond H. Ergaster. Instead what we see is that there is a type of technological explosion beyond that point.

      I would argue that our intellect has reached a sort of 'critical mass' with regard to its capacity to manufacture tools of increasing complexity and advancement. While we may reach plateaus, our intellect allows us to circumvent artificial limits and develop new technologies. Even now, we are inventing tools that help us create tools that are beyond our physical limitations (CAD, genetic simulations, etc).

      In contrast, H. Ergaster invented and used the stone axe, and almost a half million years later was still using the same stone axe. In a similar amount of time, modern humans have progressed from the stone axe, to sending robotic explorers to other planets.

      --
      Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
    10. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by DirkGently · · Score: 3, Funny

      I wish I could meta-mod so I could bitch-slap the guy that gave you a +1 insight.

      --

      I keep trying to pick fights, but I can't shake this Excellent karma.

    11. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by spun · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Not necessarily. Look at Conway's life cellular automaton. There are many valid configurations within the game that can never be reached without setting it that way to begin with. They are called 'garden of eden' configurations. And given any particular starting configuration, there are plenty of configurations that won't ever be reached. And if you define 'possible' as 'any condition that can be reached from a given starting condition,' then you have constructed a tautology and have not said anything useful at all. You are basically defining possible as 'that which happens, given enough time.'

      Put another way, "given enough time, monkeys will fly out of my ass." Now, evolutionarily speaking, flying monkeys are possible. It is also possible, given enough mechanical force, that my ass could be stretched large enough to fit the wingspan of an average flying monkey. But I really doubt that even if you waited around for an eternity, you'd ever see a monkey fly out of my ass.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    12. Re:Well, it's nice to have a destination... by thrillseeker · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There are many valid configurations within the game that can never be reached without setting it that way to begin with.

      Conway's Game of Life (which I remember programming on a ZX-80 computer, good grief) is an extremely limited set of rules compared to the Universe's - it specifically doesn't allow for randomness - all configurations of the game can be reached if the initial conditions are randomly set.

      For your viewing pleasure ...

  4. Not so Rare Earth by sgbett · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Interesting, considering that just last night I was watching a documentary, on BBC4 no less, about rare earth theory and how miraculous it was that the conditions on earth are as they are.

    Funny but, I couldn't shake the feeling that the reason conditions here on earth are so 'perfect' for life as we know it was more to do with life as we know it evolving to fit the conditions ...

    --
    Invaders must die
    1. Re:Not so Rare Earth by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 3, Funny

      Funny but, I couldn't shake the feeling that the reason conditions here on earth are so 'perfect' for life as we know it was more to do with life as we know it evolving to fit the conditions ... No, no! Can't you see? Earth is incredibly rare! Too rare to be a coincidence. Nope, must've been an Intelligent Designer that created life. Probably about 6,000 years or so ago. Yep.

      Heh. This new information kinda blows a hole in that theory, huh?
    2. Re:Not so Rare Earth by Dunbal · · Score: 2, Informative

      Yes, this is known as the Anthropic Principle.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    3. Re:Not so Rare Earth by Dunbal · · Score: 4, Funny

      This new information kinda blows a hole in that theory, huh?

      Yes, but His Spaghettiness is most forgiving. May you be touched by His Noodly Appendage forever. Hang on, that sounds a bit like icky things Japanese do with tentacles... oh second thoughts...

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  5. TFA is confused... by meringuoid · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... there may be hundreds of worlds in the solar system. In the Milky Way, expect trillions. The distinction between the Solar System and the Galaxy is a subtle one, similar to that between a grain of sand and Saudi Arabia, so it's easy for the likes of the BBC to confuse the two.

    --
    Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
  6. Drake Equation by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Given hundreds of worlds within our own galaxy, if we apply the Drake Equation, there's a good chance that there's another intelligent species out there, although the chances of it being of a sufficient technological development to make its presence known is slim. Also, the 'accepted values' for the various parts of the Drake equation are subject to (sometimes intense) debate.

    This being said, given that most of these "nearby" worlds are tens of thousands of light-years away, with the current state of our technology, we might as well be alone.

    --
    ____

    ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    1. Re:Drake Equation by biased_estimator · · Score: 3, Funny

      http://xkcd.com/384/ Sorry, couldn't help myself.

    2. Re:Drake Equation by bjorniac · · Score: 2, Interesting

      No. No it isn't. The Drake Equation is just a crock - it expresses something we have no data for in terms of a bunch of variables... that we have NO DATA FOR. People just guess the numbers and say "My God, there probably IS life out there!" But the fact remains that the numbers used in the Drake equations (at least some of them) are guesses. Maybe n_e is 0.01, or maybe it's 1/(#planets in universe).

      Using "Accepted values" for the Drake Equation are like using accepted values for the age of the earth taken from the bible - eg "the accepted age is 6000 years, so bang goes your dinosaur idea!"

      Now who knows, maybe in 200 years we'll have some reasonable bounds on these variables. But for now we have nothing.

  7. How common were they before? by Joohn · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...planets, possibly with conditions suitable for life, may be more common than previously thought... I have heard this so many times that I'm losing track on how common we previously thought they were.
  8. Re:Aquatic life? by Ihlosi · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Wouldn't it be feasible that intelligent life could arise on a planet that is liquid?

    Complex life, certainly. Intelligent ... I'm not so sure, probably depends on your definition of intelligence. Complex social structures and communication ? Possible. Tool use ? I'd say that is less probable. In an aquatic environment, fins beat tool-compatible appendages any day.

  9. Re:Aquatic life? by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Wouldn't it be feasible that intelligent life could arise on a planet that is liquid?

    Our own earthly cephalopods are pretty darned smart. Given the right conditions, it's not difficult to imagine a similar species attaining greater intelligence. Of course, such an intelligence, having developed in such an alien environment, would be radically different from ours. As Larry Niven says, there are brains out there that think just as well as yours...but differently.

    Also, although an aquatic species could conceivably develop intelligence, I can't imagine what form its technology would take. With such elementary things as fire denied to them, it's doubtful that they could progress to any reasonable level.

    --
    ____

    ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

  10. Re:Aquatic life? by Dunbal · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As long as the temperature of the liquid is sufficiently stable, there are sufficient chemical building blocks and there is not too much current, single cell organisms and then multi cell organisms could emerge..

          Depends on how you define "intelligence". Our liquids are certainly teeming with intelligent life. Life itself apparently began in our oceans. Fish are certainly very smart - they feed themselves, find mates, defend territory, build defensive structures, some species live and travel in social groups, etc. These are all signs of "intelligence". Then if you want to cheat a bit and look at the ocean mammals - seals, porpoises, whales, these are extremely intelligent aquatic beings.

          Arthur C. Clarke, however, argued that CIVILIZATION, however, could not evolve in an aquatic environment, for the simple reason that you cannot have fire underwater. His interesting theory claims that fire, and our control of fire - has been a driving force in our technology. First the fire we would use for slash and burn agriculture - which while being devastating for the environment over the long term gave many short term advantages to the primitive farmer. Fire to make steam is what drove the industrial revolution. And that same power is still in use today, though we get our "fire" in the form of Uranium, or by burning fossil fuels. Then there is the "fire" from the sky - electricity. Harnessing this particular "fire" would be pretty tricky underwater.

          I guess it's an interesting concept to play with, and surely there are many possibilities that we biased, land dwelling humans could never dream of, but I respect Mr. Clarke and his idea. I think it would be difficult for an aquatic civilization to arise here or anywhere else.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  11. How meny of them have stargates on them? by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 2, Funny

    so we can go to them?

  12. I wonder then... by Urger · · Score: 2

    If there are only hundreds of earthlike planets what are the extra Stargate addresses for?

  13. Re:can we make our minds up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    First 9, then posibly 10, then back to 9, then 8.. now we have..
    "Our old view, that the Solar System had nine planets will be supplanted by a view that there are hundreds if not thousands of planets in our Solar System,"


    The first release of Solaris was Solaris 2. This replaced SunOS 4.x. There were a number of Solaris 2.x point releases, with the last being Solaris 2.6. Solaris 7 was released in November, 1998, followed by Solaris 8 in 2000, Solaris 9 in 2002, and Solaris 10 in 2005.

    Although Sun's marketing dept. sometimes comes up with fucked version numbering conventions, the progression is actually quite linear.

  14. Re:Aquatic life? by KokorHekkus · · Score: 4, Informative

    Not every day or time, it all comes down to in which environment it has to survive. And we have examples of tool-compatible appendages in aquatic life here on earth: the octopus that can open plastic bottles http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfRqYjv9QgA. And then there are other aqautic life that seems to do very well without fins such as crustaceans.

  15. not very wrong by dominux · · Score: 3, Informative

    a planet would not be 100% uniform liquid at room temperature. You don't get planet sized blobs of water. Our planet is a lot of liquid around a fairly small probably solid iron core. The most common liquid component of planet earth by a long way is magma. The solid rock crust and liquid water in the seas is so insignificant by comparison it is surprising we even bother to talk about it. Anyhow what you were probably thinking about is a planet with a surface completely covered by liquid water or something like it. I think something could arise on such a planet, at the surface (or possibly below it if we are allowed to assume a hot core with volcanic vents.) You could get algae mats forming and sinking when they die off. Huge floating mats could then provide an ecosystem for other things to evolve around. At some point there could be fishlike animals under the mats and amphibious creatures walking on top of the mats. I can't see any real limit to the size and stability of the floating mats. Any creature looking to develop technology would have to use organic materials, which makes electronics a bit tricky. In terms of leaving the planet, fuel and a launch pad wouldn't be too tricky, building the rocket might be though.

    1. Re:not very wrong by KillerBob · · Score: 3, Interesting

      From what I hear, our best chances of finding life in our solar system is Europa. It's a giant ice ball, but beneath a thin ice shelf, there's thought to be an ocean very similar to Earth's ocean in chemistry, that's about 100km deep. Other major possibilities include Mars and Venus, both of whom have environments we've already found can support some Earth-born forms of life. We suspect Mars may have supported multi-cellular life in the past, but Europa has the best chances of supporting it today.

      --
      If you believe everything you read, you'd better not read. - Japanese proverb
    2. Re:not very wrong by kels · · Score: 2, Informative

      The most common liquid component of planet earth by a long way is magma. The solid rock crust and liquid water in the seas is so insignificant by comparison it is surprising we even bother to talk about it.

      The Earth's mantle is a crystalline solid, with only tiny isolated pockets of magma. There is no vast magma ocean. The lower mantle is subjected to pressures that can keep it solid well above 2000 degree C. Much of the mantle deforms over millions of years, but it is not liquid.

      The biggest liquid component of the Earth is undoubtedly the outer core, which is mainly molten iron.

      --
      "I believe that the cult of the particular brings only death - for it bases order on likeness." St.-Exupery
    3. Re:not very wrong by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The problems with technology that regular aquatic races have would be even worse on Europa. Imagine an explorer trying to see what was beyond that great ice wall at the top of the world. After managing to chisel through miles of ice, the intrepid explorer would be rewarded with a quick death by blowout as the tunnel opened out onto the surface...in vacuum.

      I don't think we're going to be seeing many Europan astronauts anytime soon.

      --
      ____

      ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

  16. And all of them are ours by barzok · · Score: 3, Funny

    except Europa. I'll not be attempting any landings there.

  17. They played us for suckers! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Our own earthly cephalopods are pretty darned smart. Given the right conditions, it's not difficult to imagine a similar species attaining greater intelligence. Of course, such an intelligence, having developed in such an alien environment, would be radically different from ours. As Larry Niven says, there are brains out there that think just as well as yours...but differently.

    Squid, cuttlefish, and other similarly baleful creatures are all members of the cephalopod family, characterized by HUGE EYES, BEAKS, INTELLIGENCE, and AMBITION.
  18. Re:sweet by RicardoGCE · · Score: 5, Funny

    I'm all for shipping grammar nazis off to the most distant rock available.

    By the way, it's "later", not "latter" ;)

  19. Re:can we make our minds up? by mdwh2 · · Score: 2, Informative

    Indeed - the article also says:

    Some astronomers believe there may be hundreds of small rocky bodies in the outer edges of our own Solar System, and perhaps even a handful of frozen Earth-sized worlds.

    So it's reasonable that any Earth-sized bodies would be considered as new planets, but "handful" doesn't seem to account for "hundreds if not thousands".

    Then again, I'm amused that this guy still seems to insist that there are 9 planets in our solar system, so either he slept through the recent decision, or he disagrees with it, and in both cases it's consistent that if Pluto is a planet, all those hundreds of other small rocky bodies should be too...

  20. Energy is the issue by microbox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The speed of light is not a deal-breaker. It means that, from *our* perspective, we'll send people to distant planets and never hear from them again. But from their perspective, it may be a few years. If interstellar travel actually happens, then the speed of light issue is just a managable logistical issue. It means that space-farers must be able to think for themselves. They already must be self-sufficient in other respects.

    If there is a deal-breaker, then it is contruction and propulsion of such a craft. The vaster the craft, then the more unlikely it's construction. We might be able to fire ourselves off in a single direction, but how do we slow down, and what if we need to change course. If we need to come home, then we've doubled the energy required!

    Then there are complex issues with people - our fragile minds and bodies. How do we react to the stress of space-travel, can we do it?

    The speed of light seems like a comparatively simple issue.

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    1. Re:Energy is the issue by schiefaw · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Navigation may be an issue:

      Holly: Look, we're travelling faster than the speed of light. That means, by the time we see something, we've already passed through it. Even with an IQ of 6000, it's still brown trousers time.

      --
      Angleyne: You can't bend that girder - it's unbendable! Bender: Well I don't know anything about lifting, so that ju
  21. Re:Aquatic life? by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    There are plenty of volcanoes under the water here on Earth. Could those serve as a source of fire?

    Perhaps primitive marine creatures would realize that some sort of algae-like food source grows better in the warmer waters around these "glowing liquid not-water" sources and start building walls around them to hold in that temperature. Sort of like farming - but with algae instead of regular "crops". This would give them a stable food source and they could get to thinking about other things.

    --
    Reading code is like reading the dictionary - you have to read half of it before you can go back and understand it.
  22. But do we want them? by Chemisor · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The question is whether we want to have any planets. From Earth, for example, you could construct 10000000 rotating hollow cylinders, 1000x1000km each, with reasonable gravity, perfect weather, safety from radiation, and sustainability for billions of years. The total usable area will be 1e11 square km, 196 times larger than the Earth. It is also portable and redundant, ensuring that the entire civilization is not wiped out by an asteroid. It can remain usable after the Sun burns out; you can install a fusion generator and mine Jupiter for fuel for a very very long time. So tell me again why we need a planet?

    1. Re:But do we want them? by Chemisor · · Score: 2, Informative

      > Yeah, if you don't mind disassembling the whole planet.

      Why should you mind? I'm not necessarily talking about disassembling Earth. We could start with Venus and Mars.

      > The NIMBY people would be all over you and, frankly, I would join them on this one.

      Why? The planetoids will not be anywhere near your back yard. In fact, if you stay on Earth, you don't even need to be aware of their existence. They'll be so far, you will not even be able to see them without a huge telescope. And it isn't like you have any particular use for Mars and Venus now. Both are uninhabitable, and while Mars might be terraformable, it is much easier to just plunk down a few beanstalks and turn it into a planetoid farm.

    2. Re:But do we want them? by Chemisor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > (Sorry to pick on you but your statments are a bit too Malthusian for the facts.)
      > We are going to develop a reliable renewable energy source (probably fusion and solar) before we trully "run out."

      And yours are too optimistic. We've been in technological stagnation since 2000 and it's only going to get worse from now on. Research is not a high priority during a depression, and we are definitely heading for one now. I rather doubt we'll have fusion. For one, nobody is seriously working on it. The few projects in existence are just token government efforts "to be doing something". I do not expect them to succeed.

      > Plus the mined resources aren't gone...they are in buildings.

      Yes, they are. They are also in dirt. The reason we have ore mines is not that iron doesn't exist anywhere else, but that it's concentrated there and is in an easily extractable form. Abandoned skyscrapers will indeed have iron, but at a very low density. Most of it is embedded in concrete as rebar, making it very hard to extract by hand, and impossible to extract on industrial scale. The iron that's out in the open will rust after a few decades of exposure. How long will your house stand if you never fix roof leaks? Once it's rusted, the energy required to extract it becomes enormous. Industrial ores today are sulfides, which are easily melted. Melting rust is very very difficult by comparison.

      > they are just harder more expensive to tap.

      But that's the whole point. To us they are too expensive to tap now. To a civilization at 12th century level of technology it is impossible to reach at any cost. In fact, even that level requires abundant metal to reach. With all the surface metal gone, civilization might not be able to leave stone age. How will you build a modern mine with a flint axe and a wooden shovel? Or an oil well under the sea? The further you fall, the harder it becomes to climb back. If our civilization falls into stone age, it would quite likely just stay there.

      > Actully whe have more proven reserves now than we did 50 years ago,

      I would take the official "proven reserves" figures with a very large grain of salt. Some of them are just guesses. Others are outright lies. No, I don't have links, sorry :)

  23. Aquatic post-stone age is improbable by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 2, Interesting

    While tool use is certainly probable in an aquatic species that evolved intelligence, I would doubt that any such species would progress past the stone age in terms of technology. However, they may evolve a very advanced society, afterall, the Ancient Egyptians and Mayan cultures also were just progressing out of the stone-age yet they had highly advanced societies.

    Why would they be limited to the stone age? If you assume that they are fully aquatic and not amphibian-like then they would lack one of the major requirements for progression beyond the stone age. Fire. Granted I may be taking a short sighted view of this, but without easy access to fire, it would be VERY difficult for such a society to develop anything beyond basic stone age tools.

    I suppose it would be possible for them to utilize a volcano as a source of energy to smelt metals. But I would imagine that smelting in an aquatic environment would have some severe drawbacks. (even if we ignore the problem associated with oxidation of metals)

    --
    Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
  24. Doesn't Anyone Read TFA ? by mbone · · Score: 2, Informative

    Apparently not, even at the BBC. What they were saying is that there could be hundreds of worlds in the solar system, not in the galaxy. (They meant in the Kuiper belt, far outside of Pluto and Neptune.)

    We have already found 273 extra-solar planets in the galaxy. No one doubts now that there are millions, if not billions, in the galaxy, and a puling "hundreds" of Earth type planets in the galaxy would strike most people following this research as a very low estimate.

    From the article : "Some astronomers believe there may be hundreds of small rocky bodies in the outer edges of our own Solar System, and perhaps even a handful of frozen Earth-sized worlds."

    I would also regard this as almost not news at all, given the rapid rate of discovery of TNOs (Trans Neptunian Objects), three of which so far are the size of Pluto or larger.

  25. Re: bad guess by Jeremy_Bee · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I disagree. I understand the argument you are trying to make, but your "1 in a million" suggestions are really more akin to wild stabs at the biggest number you can think of, than they are reasonable guesses. 1:1000000 is really an unusually small ratio, and not as common as you intimate. It certainly has no actual relation to the situations that present themselves in the formula.

    You can't simply spout a bunch of hyperbole and expect to be taken seriously. Especially in reply to an article that attempts to actually determine those numbers and percentages based on facts. This kind of talk is really no different from the comedy statement that "90% of people know that you can prove anything with statistics." It's meaningless.

    While we will likely have to wait a whole lot longer for meaningful answers to the Drake equation, attempts at putting fact-based numbers on the variables should be applauded, and discounting them with what amounts to emotional hyperbole should be discouraged IMO.

  26. Re:Aquatic life? by rijrunner · · Score: 4, Insightful


        Except, we are in the midst of people arguing about exactly how intelligent cephalopods and sea based mammals are.

        The truth of the matter is that we have no real way to gauge the intelligence of other alien life forms. Almost all tests are based on a set of assumptions. It is only fairly recently that we have even defined classes of intelligences within humans (Linguistic, Spatial, Musical, Body-Kinesthetic, Interpersonal, Intrapersonal, Logical/Mathematical). It is entirely possible that intelligent life could evolve in aquatic environments that score extremely high in multiple categories there and we would have no real way of knowing. We know that there are a number of species that have highly evolved linguistic characteristics. But, what are they saying? Is it "See Spot Run"? Is it something profound? Is it elaborate fart jokes? It is entirely possible that the social structures are subtle enough that we have no means of determining how complex they are. When whale song can be heard from thousands of miles away, how do you determine the society that hears it and responds and the relationship between the one singing and the ones listening?

        Someone once said that either we are alone, or we are not. Either answer is mind boggling.

        My view is that we don't even know if we alone here on Earth, much less the universe.

  27. Re:Aquatic life? by dissy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    but I don't see how it's possible for aquatic life to ever enter "the bronze age" since it's formidably difficult to light a fire under water... Yea, but just try telling that to the underwater volcanic vents!
  28. Re:Aquatic life? by Arccot · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Arthur C. Clarke, however, argued that CIVILIZATION, however, could not evolve in an aquatic environment, for the simple reason that you cannot have fire underwater. His interesting theory claims that fire, and our control of fire - has been a driving force in our technology. First the fire we would use for slash and burn agriculture - which while being devastating for the environment over the long term gave many short term advantages to the primitive farmer. Fire to make steam is what drove the industrial revolution. And that same power is still in use today, though we get our "fire" in the form of Uranium, or by burning fossil fuels. Then there is the "fire" from the sky - electricity. Harnessing this particular "fire" would be pretty tricky underwater.

    I always thought that was a pretty uncreative comment from such a create fellow. If you eliminate the need to breathe (artificially) underwater, it's pretty easy to come up with a basic concept of civilization.

    Algae farms wouldn't be hard to manage with the most basic of technology. Power could be generated from currents turning water wheels. Heat based power sources could also work, such as sea floor hot spots or something using the differential between the warm sea surface and the cool sea bottom. Hard metals might be all but unworkable, but fabric and bone could be made easily with plant and animal life. That would then allow a relatively firm fabric based cage/pen for herding animals. Transportation obviously wouldn't be in the form of a locomotive, but perhaps a system of rapid current tunnels could be worked out. Or maybe the harnessing of larger sea animals.

    I don't know enough to determine the rest, but I think the rudimentary civilization is there; tool use, farming/herding instead of hunting/gathering, and the basics of transportation.

  29. Just because it's rocky by Pedrito · · Score: 3, Informative

    doesn't tell you a whole lot. What we do know is that most of the extrasolar systems we've found also tend to have Jupiter-like and larger planets and that in the majority of cases, these planets are either fairly close to their stars or in highly eccentric orbits. Either of these conditions would tend to make any "habitable" planets less habitable. A Jupiter-like or larger planet close in or in a highly eccentric orbit would tend to destablize the orbits of any small rocky planets in the habitable zone.

    There are so many things that have to come together to make our planet habitable, that I suspect these conditions are a lot less frequently found than a lot of people would hope. That's not to say I don't think is common in the universe. I do. I just think the vast majority (by several orders of magnitude) of it is going to be single-cell (or if not in the form of cells, of equivalent complexity). You need liquid water (which gives you a pretty narrow temperature range at any given pressure), you need something in the atmosphere to protect against stellar radiation (or, if it's a water planet, I suppose something in the water to protect), you need a planet that's active, but not overly active (and lots of factors go into that). Anyway, I suspect true earth-like planets are pretty rare.

    1. Re:Just because it's rocky by StikyPad · · Score: 3, Insightful

      most of the extrasolar systems we've found also tend to have Jupiter-like and larger planets and that in the majority of cases, these planets are either fairly close to their stars or in highly eccentric orbits.

      That's not an attribute of solar systems in general; it's an attribute of solar systems *we can detect* by viewing perturbations in a star's relative position. There's a reason the first planets have had extremely short orbits and extremely large mass. By virtue of the methodology, the larger the planet and the closer the orbit (which makes for a larger/faster wobble, respectively), the easier we can detect them. A planet with the mass of our Sun would still take centuries to detect with current technology if it had the orbital period of Pluto.

      Granted, you qualified your statement, but then you went on to describe the likelihood of an Earth-like planet based on our limited findings. That's a bit like saying "The faintest stars we can see with the naked eye are magnitude 4, therefore it's unlikely that many stars are dimmer than that."

  30. Re:sweet by spiffyman · · Score: 4, Informative

    The explanation for the "write" vs. "write to" distinction, at least, is pretty simple. The nouns taking the verb "write" are dative case. That's not obvious in English, but it's there, and it underlies the apparent form.

    German is useful here because 1) it's the root language for English and 2) its sentence structures can be perfectly analogous. Take the German sentence Schreib deiner Mutter einen Brief which is translated word-for-word as Write your mother a letter. In German, the deiner is a clear marker that Mutter is dative. The exact same thing is happening in English, but since we don't decline our articles or possessive adjectives and rely instead on word order, it's not obvious to the typical native speaker.

    --
    So you can laugh all you want to...
  31. To aid science with religion... by bigtimepie · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I know this is /., where science prevails. But I couldn't help a scripture coming to mind.

    Heb. 1: 2
    Hath in these last days spoken unto us by his Son, whom he hath appointed heir of all things, by whom also he made the worlds;

    I always found this verse interesting, using worlds as opposed to planets. So why wouldn't there be more than one?

    Just food for thought :)

  32. the wonder by cpricejones · · Score: 3, Funny

    Think of all the stargates ...

  33. Re:No, YOU are confused. by meringuoid · · Score: 2, Informative
    Our galaxy is 50000 ly in radius, which comes out to 1.4e37 m2. Our solar system, taken to the orbit of Pluto, is 40 au in radius, or 2.8e24 m2. The ratio between the two is 5e12.

    Remember that the Galaxy is a three-dimensional volume, while Saudi Arabia is flattish. According to Idle et. al (Significat Vitae Carmen Galactica, 1983), our Galaxy itself contains a hundred billion stars and is a hundred thousand lightyears side to side; it bulges in the middle, sixteen thousand lightyears thick, but out by us it's just three thousand lightyears wide. Taking the lower thickness, that gives a Galactic volume of pi * (50000^2) * 3000 = 2.34x10^14 cubic lightyears = 2.00x10^61 cubic metres. Taking the Solar System to the orbit of Pluto, that's 2.86x10^5 cubic AU = 8.97x10^38 cubic metres. Ratio of the two, that's about 2.2*10^22. Allowing that Saudi Arabia is on average covered by one metre's thickness of sand, we get a grain of sand about half a millimetre on a side.

    --
    Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
  34. Re:can we make our minds up? by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2, Informative

    Well, I think the problem was that one reasonable definition of "planet", "a mass large enough that its gravity pulls it into a ball" leaves us with 50-something planets in our solar system.

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    (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  35. Re:You forgot something... by clonan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    #1 Never said it was impossible...only very difficult to maintain.

    #2 A cycle DOES care how large it is. The larger, more complex the cycle the more places there are for slack in the system, the more complex it is the more control points you have and the larger the volume the more time you have to fix it before it starts reinforcing itself.

    #3 In a larger system the materials and energy reuierments wouldn't be nearly as stringent and the system could have compensated before it crashed.

    #4 Please site a reference for you comment on chaos theory. Everything I read suggests a very strong predictaive value (everything from projecting battery life to environmental effects)

    #5 Exactly, I mean exactly like earth. Humans have had a reckless abandon for the care of the planet for well over 10,000 years. For example, before humans got there, the Saraha was about the size of New Hampshire...but with our greed and goats we over the last few thousand years finally got beyond the lands ability to recouperate and thus the current dessert formed quickly. If it wasn't for the self supporting and very large system of the earth, we would have made the planet unihabitable eons ago.

    If it weren't for the size of the planet there would be no possible way we could see the change and fix it before the planet turned into an oven. As an example of how fast things can change read up on the precambrian explosion. The current geological evidence suggests that the earth's surface competly froze which locked away the biosphere to undersea volcanoes etc then drove the global temperature below -50 C. After a few 10's of thousands of years enough CO2 from volcanoes and dust and others caused a massive greenhouse effect which melted the ice and increased the global temperature by over 100 deg C in as little as 50 (thats fifty) years. After the biosphere was releaseed it was able to accomidate to the changes and tamp down the extremes.

    #6 I was referencing the size quoted in the original comment. But as I already proved, smaller will be less stable, harder to maintain and more prone to accidents.

    #7 Countries are actually VERY easy to leave. I can leave this country today if I want. The issue is taking the land with you. Once all the planets have been made into the cylinders, don't you think someone will object to one group trying to split one up? Remeber the Civil war was fought with a huge unexplored and availible bit of land nextdoor but they decided to fight over their current homes instead.

    #8 Do you really beleive socialism is the route of all evil? Take a look at the Gilded age in the US... Take a look at the feudal system... All of one system NEVER works. We need a balanced system of capitalism to create the energy and vitality, socialism to protect the weak and the occasional dictatorship to keep things dynamic. If biology and evolution has taught us anything it is that thoes who fail to adapt will perish.

  36. [OT] Re:sweet by spiffyman · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The most charitable interpretation of of your comment that I can stomach is that you mean "root language" in a non-standard way. Anything else would be wholly ignorant of basic historical and linguistic facts.

    Where I come from (i.e., in linguistics), English is regularly referred to as a Germanic language. In English literature courses, professors in the know will tell you that, while most of our long words come from Latin through French, the short words and the structure are derived from German. There are divergences - e.g., in German one can say Einen Brief schreibt er seiner Mutter but not the word-for-word English version A letter writes he his mother - but they're accounted for and often accompanied by complementary changes elsewhere in the language. The very history of the development of the English language and people points to the influence of German (despite what this guy apparently thinks).

    To me, all of this says "root language." Mere temporal separation isn't enough to remove that relation, as you seem to suggest. Beyond that, I have no clue what you seem to mean by the same phrase, so I won't hazard a guess.

    --
    So you can laugh all you want to...
  37. Re:sweet by arminw · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ......Our galaxy *should* be littered by millions of civilizations........

    Carbon is the only central element we know of that can make the extremely complex molecular constructs we find in living things. A "rock" like ours has to have a minimum set of specifications in order to have life capable of anything we could call "civilization".

    1.0 One major requirement that this rock must have no other star closer than about 3.8 light years besides its "sun". Another sun sized star closer than about 3.8 light years would mess up that rock's orbit and make the long term climate there inhospitable to life. Only about half of all the stars in the whole universe qualify on this distance specification.

    2.0 The gravity at the surface of the planet must be right. Too strong gravity causes the atmosphere to contain too much methane and ammonia, both very poisonous to life. It also makes it hard to move, especially flight. Too little gravity will produce a planet like Mars with little air and water.

    3.0 The mass of that star has to be just right. Too large a star would causes its energy output vary more than living things could stand. The energy output of huge stars is not stable, long term. Any life would be exterminated by cooking or freezing before it could get very far along. A too tiny star would force that rock to be too close to its star to get enough heat for life. This would mess up the rotation time, tending to make a day and a year about the same length, such as the planet Mercury. Also there would be excessive tidal forces that would be hard on higher civilized life.

    5.0 The rotation time of such a rock could not be too different from that of our earth. If that rock rotates more slowly, then everything would freeze solid every night and cook during the day. A faster spin would make for terrific storms in the atmosphere all the time, preventing the formation of higher civilized society. The rotational speed of Saturn and Jupiter are very high and the winds in its atmosphere are phenomenal. (hundreds of miles per hour)

    6.0 Ratio of oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere is critical. Too much oxygen would make life functions run too fast and allow any fires to burn whole continents over in devastating fire storms. Too little oxygen would not allow much meaningful activity, because life processes would proceed too slowly. Any other gases, if present in more than trace amounts could also prevent the development of life.

    7.0 The crust (outer solid layer) of such a rock has to be the right thickness. If it were too thick, most of the oxygen in the atmosphere would be tied up in it, leaving too little free for living things. Too thin a crust would result in too many severe earthquakes and volcanoes would make it quite difficult to develop any advanced civilization. The crust of our own rock is thinner than the skin on an onion at the relative scale.

    8.0 The chemical binding energies of carbon dictate the wavelengths of light needed by living things (photosynthesis in plants on our own rock) that convert the light from the star into a suitable form to knit hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon and other elements together as building blocks and fuel for all life forms. The spectrum of that rock's star must therefore be pretty close to that of our sun. Blue or red giants or dwarfs need not apply for the job.

    Conclusion: To get a suitable rock upon which a civilization can develop and flourish requires a number of fortuitous "coincidences". On a random basis, this makes the chance of another rock like ours very small. Maybe some enterprising /.er has the time to do a rough estimate what the probability is that only these factors be met. There surely are other factors not mentioned above.

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    All theory is gray