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Apple to Rule the Digital Home by 2013?
Stony Stevenson writes to tell us that a new study from Forrester Research is taking a crack at what seems to have become a hobby for so many, predicting Apple's market strategy. Specifically, Forrester is predicting that Apple will become the 'hub of the digital home by 2013.' "Forrester predicts that Apple will offer eight key products and services to connect PCs and digital content to the TV-stereo infrastructure in consumers' homes. A 're-engineered' Apple Store will expand into in-home installation services to deliver what Forrester describes as a 'fully integrated digital experience.'"
Maybe I'm just hungover but to me the article seems to be nothing but: "Blah blah blah Apple. Blah blah Apple Blah Apple Blah."
The massive success of Apple TV sure put them on the right track.
The twitter monologues. Click on my homepage and be amazed.
It'll be either one of the console vendors Microsoft, Nintendo, or Sony (Probably Microsoft if they can get their heads out their asses on the matter of DRM. The XBox 360/Windows Media stuff works pretty well already and is simple to set up) or a set-top box vendor (again if they can come up with a DRM strategy).
Apple doesn't make anything that hooks to a TV that has any critical mass.
Because nobody would ever need more than 1 button on a mouse, nobody would ever need more than 1 button on a TV remote.
My money is on the PS3 or Wii.
For the PS3, Sony has been helpful in getting Linux to run on it. The most important factor is the blu-ray capability. I know a lot of people who bought a PS3 just for the blu-ray. They own no games 'cept what came in the box.
The Wii is an exceptional game machine. Nintendo hit their target right on and that fact that the Wii is outselling the PS3 and Xbox combined speaks volumes. If the Wii offered up blu-ray, it would dominate even more.
Bearded Dragon
How they get people to pay thousands of dollars for this "research" is amazing. Can anyone ever remember someone saying "Damn! Forrester totally called it!"
The 4 new products they predict are:
* AppleSound universal music controller
what, for the times when you are out of earshot of itunes, ipod or apple tv? or so you can sync them? I don't see the market here.
* Network-enabled gadgets
like a chumby? or an ambient orb?
* In-home installation services
apple geek squad? Ok, this may be true, but really... yawn...
* Apple home server product
This is the only one that MAY be interesting, but that's probably just because they don't say much about it. isn't this what the mini is? or mini+drobo?
Now know this, you newly minted Mac users - if you use Apple equipment for any length of time, you wind up with the same hobby: predicting Apple's market strategy.
It's fun and easy to do, and you soon learn that you can do just as good a job as Forrester or Gartner or Cringley, and do a lot better than Metcalf, Michael Dell or Dvorak (not the keyboard layout, as even a keyboard layout can provide better market analysis than that guy).
Bold predictions! You can make bold predictions -
"Steve Jobs will buy Adobe!"
"Steve Wozniak will mary a famous comedienne!"
"iPhone will be the first earth technology bough by alien visitors as it's superior to their own!"
"Apple will shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders!"
- Ok, I admit that it's unlikely Woz will marry a famous comedienne, but other than that, as long as it's outlandish and over-the-top, there's a one-in-a-million chance it might come true, and as Terry Pratchett readers, we know one-in-a-million chances crop up nine times out of ten.
Articles like this are just the encouragement newly fledged Apple pundits need to start rolling their own... and it's a small step from speculation to rumor-mongering! That's where the action's really at.
(And, you didn't hear it from me, but the next rev of iTunes will knock your socks clean off, employing bayesian fuzzy-logic heuristic inference engines to predict with 89% accuracy what you want to hear before you hear it, or so I heard from a little bird who's working on "Project BHA-II")
According to that Forrester article:
The eight essential pillars on which Apple will deliver this platform, based on four existing offerings and four new product concepts, are expected to be:
* Apple Macintosh home PC
* Apple TV digital media extender
* Apple Store
* iTunes and its successors
* Apple home server product
* AppleSound universal music controller
* Network-enabled gadgets
* In-home installation services
I think those all of those miss the biggest weapon in Apple's arsenal, and one of them isn't even going to be a factor anymore by 2013 - not as we've come to know it. The PC - including the Mac - is a dying form factor for all but high-end professional use (think workstations). Gamers are migrating to dedicated gaming machines (Apple may well release one themselves), while what we've traditionally used PC's for - web surfing, e-mail, word processing - can now be successfully handled by cell phones. Create a docking station for the iPhone that allows it to use a full-sized keyboard, mouse and monitor while you're at home - or a portable docking solution that allows it to function as a laptop - and a good 90% of all "PC" users won't need a PC anymore. They'll simply use their phone (which really isn't a phone, it's a tiny PC with phone features and a customized interface).
With advances in wireless technology you'll also be able to connect that iPhone to your home's NAS, to your stereo and to your television to share and display content. Apple's big advantage here is user interface design, plus its existing DRM-enabled relationship with major content providers. They've also proven they can market new concepts and new technologies to consumers in a way HP and Microsoft just can't (terd brown Zune, anybody?).
And of course the iPhone can be used as a portable music and video player as well. The next-gen iPhone may well sport 30GB of flash, and by 2013 could be toting 300GB. That's certainly enough on-the-go storage for most users, and with high-speed wireless networks becoming common if it's not enough space, you could always connect to the home NAS and synchronize with it to pull down additional content on-demand (or buy it directly at Apple's online store).
I could see Apple getting into the GeekSquad business as Forrester suggests, for installing and configuring their own hardware. They might even release their own line of displays, amps, speakers and such, although to date they've been pretty content at letting others provide iPod accessories. That might change though as they become more dominant in the consumer electronics space.
Their other big play between now an 2013 could be videogames. There's no reason why Apple can't release its own Xbox - I'm sure Intel would be happy to lend them a lot of engineering help in order to establish a presence in that market. Make the device function with iPhones and serve as a media hub, sell it for $300 or less and watch as it erodes the market for more expensive gaming devices from its rivals. The iPhone is already poised to become a successful portable gaming device in its own right.
Apple could also use their position to smash the high-priced game model that's dominated the market for the past two decades. Keep the price of games to $19.95 and win share away from more expensive rivals, who have been using their cut of game revenue to fund console development. Even if they aren't a huge success as a gaming platform, it won't cost them much to enter the space this way. And they could end up doing to Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft what Commodore did to Atari and Coleco back in the early '80s, when the C64 ate the consoles' lunch. Back then consumers were more than willing to abandon single-function gaming devices for a multi-function device that
I can also use it to play any streaming video or audio from the net, browse Google Video and Youtube and many others from my couch... and it even has a built-in bittorrent client if I want to download media to the internal hard drive.
All in a little box the size of an external drive enclosure... with a remote. USB inputs, network inputs, HDMI out, etc.
All for a couple of hundred bucks. Which I'm sure is a fraction of what Apple will be charging when theirs comes to market in a few years.
This space available.
Does this mean I'll have to send my "digital home" off to a service center three months after I buy it to?
Or if they do they're insane. Product tie-in is why people ran to Apple in the first place, to get away from the Microsoft lock-in. Now Apple is doing it. I recently dumped everything I had Apple and moved to FOSS for exactly this reason. It kills competition and locks you into inferior products all for the sack of compatibility.
I like that I can have different components from different manufacturers. It means I can shop around for the best deals. As soon as one company ties it all in you can look forward to the death of standards like HDMI. Anyone remember ADC? The Apple Display Connector? Don't think for a second Apple wont start doing this to lock you in.
It boggles the mind why people get so excited about vendor lock-in like this. Suddenly it's a good thing? Did we learn nothing from the 90's and the Microsoft/Intel/Cisco empire?
Providing in-home installation services would not be forward progress. Eliminating the need for in-home installation services would be.
Cabling for home entertainment systems needs to be simplified drastically. Current large-screen TVs have far too many connectors. The home entertainment industry has been unable to make all the boxes talk to each other and self-configure. The display vendors, the cable box vendors, the media player vendors, and the "amplifier" vendors each want to be in charge. The game console people don't worry about integration much. So we don't have idiot-resistant plug and play, even though that's technically possible. (It is getting better, though; if you're all HDMI, things do interoperate better. Aspect ratio, for example, is handled automatically.)
Apple probably isn't in a position to make that happen, though. Apple may sell a "media center" box, but they won't be the only one.
It makes Guitar Hero much easier.
The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.
I suppose Apple as we knew it in 1996 is dead, but how many people really miss that Apple? By January 2001 Apple was on the rebound, 3 years after introducing the iMac and about to release Mac OS X 10.0.
I don't think that's what Forrester had in mind, though. I'll take any such company-specific predictions with a grain of salt.
"The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent." --Carl Sagan
This article reminds me of the Astounding! articles predicting global space travel for everyone by the year 2000. It never came to pass, and neither will this Apple-related garbage.
Not as long as free alternatives exist, at least for those who know.
Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
I dunno... isn't one of the major selling points of Apple products a sense of style that you are supposed to show off to other people? I know that's not their only selling point, but it sure seems like a big one. They do well by portable goodies (laptops, iPhone, iPod) that you can wave in front of someone and say "shiny", but are more average on other things. I suppose you can still show off your "digital hub" to people who come over to your house, but it doesn't feel the same.
;)
Quick, get a fanboi in here to show me the error of my ways!
I'm going to get modded down for this, but as it's common knowledge that the world is set to end in 2012, it seems that claim's of Apple's universal dominance are a bit premature.
It's kind of hard to rule the digital home if there aren't any.
Who knew the Mayan's hated Apple fanboys?
That's what this article is lol. I think pretty much forever, Apple's customers will only be rich, showey people who don't know computers very well and douchbags (and some professional media editors for God only knows why cuz Adobe CS3 and Premiere and some Ulead products run on the PC). So unless we all become image obsessed douchebags in the future, I don't think Apple's taking over anything. Linux however is about to kick Microsoft's ass and I'll put money on that one. Get your wikipedia edits about Microsoft going bankrupt written in advance lol.
Google's Super Secret Search Algorithm: SELECT @search_results FROM internet WHERE @search_results = 'good'
Hasn't this Digital Home idea been in the making since the early 90's? Bluetooth was supposed to be key step to aid in this process but has altogether failed. I can probably see Sony coming out with a solution for this since they do have many products and the expertise. Plus do we really want everything to be controlled by software? The quote "If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization" comes to mind.
I give Forrester Research credit for finally waking up and smelling the coffee, but they're still in a groggy, early morning stupor.
AFAIK, this is the first article from a mainstream computer industry research report that acknowledges Apple may have a very serious and viable five year product plan, beyond their existing hit products.
But then, Forrester goes on to say Apple's "commitment to closed systems" poses a barrier to wide adoption. In the previous paragraph, Microsoft and HP are cited as tough competitors, without mention of how much more closed Windows is. Nor does the article mention that Apple's proprietary parts are superior interfaces to open protocols.
I would have been much more impressed if the article discussed how Apple's practice of continuously building and improving on past technical and product successes poses a serious challenge to Microsoft and HPs practice of quarterly product planning. I guess this degree of insightfulness is reserved for more independent sources, like Roughly Drafted.
And I really doubt that any company, even Apple, would really want to or be able to serve up paid media and install BT to link into illegal distribution of copyrighted materials onto their box like that
Bittorrent is quite capable of distributing legal media as well as illegal. I'm not a content provider however if I did make movies and or music I very well may use Bittorrent for distribution. I'd use it to distribute low quality version of whatever then allow a high quality version to be downloaded for paying customers. For a little extra they could even order the movie or music on physical media sent by Fed Ex, UPS or snail mail.
FalconShould there be a Law?
What's the acronym for the opposite of FUD?
More than likely, this is just more nonsense from the standard Apple product cycle.
~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
To watch all the Apple product placement, you'd think they ruled the world now.
Hey APPLE, please do not make it dependent on damn ITUNES.
That's where they make their money. And making money by locking in users matters to Apple just as much as to Microsoft.
... is that we generally like to buy products we can physically handle and resell when we grow tired of it. This all-digital distribution ideology goes against the grain of our concept of "ownership". So now, when we "buy" a movie, we only get a license to view it on a proprietary piece of hardware... both of which are specifically tied to our personal identity, with no discount what-so-ever for the lack of a physical product or the ability to transfer the product to a new owner after-market. This means that, unlike DVDs or CDs, you now have zero chance of regaining at least some of the money you gave up in the initial purchase. The money simply goes away... never to be seen again.
This factor can have a huge influence on a person's hard value based upon their ability to put their possessions up as collateral. For example, let's say two people spend an equal amount of money on the same titles of music/movies/games/etc, but one of them buys only the digitally distributed, while the other buys everything on CDs/DVDs/etc. Now, let's say both of these guys suddenly end up in debt and need to make a quick buck. Our first guy probably has to resort to turning tricks in some alley, while our second guy can simply go to ebay with his collection and wait for the money to roll in.
Unfortunately, the second guy is quickly becoming a dying breed, due to demand for instant gratification and personal convenience. Digital distribution screws up the concept of trade we've used for thousands of years. We're handing over our physically-backed valuables in exchange for something that has no actual value outside our own hands.
8==8 Bones 8==8
Bittorrent? What's that? Isn't that something that pirates and terrorists use to exploit poor starving artists?
iTunes and the iPod have been successful because of the public perception that they just work - now, you can debate how true that is if you like, but that's the line. Part of that ease of use is exactly because they force you to use iTunes (the software*) - which annoys slashdotters who want to mount their mp3 player under Debian and copy .ogg files to it, but is a matter of sheer indifference to the mass market, who like the seamlessness that comes from the monolithic approach.
As for the AppleTV: at the moment, whereas the iTunes store is there to sell iPods, the AppleTV is there to sell iTunes video, and to "tick a box" so that people buying video for their iPods know there's an Apple-branded solution to show them on the big screen. Once the online video market has "come of age" (which will also need a bit of a revolution in broadband availability & capacity) Apple might get serious about the AppleTV.
(*Of course, iTunes the software doesn't force you to buy your media from iTunes, the store - it will happily rip audio CDs, accept MP3s and unprotected AACs from any source - legal or otherwise - and a google for "rip DVD to iTunes" produces a heap of solutions: if you know Bittorrent you probably know Google)
In a survey of 100 programmers, 111111 thought that duck-typing was a good idea.