Analyzing Apple's iPhone Strategy
Galen Gruman submitted infoworld's summary of Apple's grand strategy for the iPhone. He points out that the real important part of the new iPhone is the software, not the hardware. He talks about the new SDK stuff, the ad-hoc app distribution, and other stuff. It's a reasonable read if you have been ignoring the iPhone and want to know what the hype is about over this release, but doesn't break any new ground if you've been paying attention.
But this shift has only happened recently, and we needed something like the iPhone to show us that the hardware is actually darn good enough!
This is also why I'm so fascinated by Android, which is a powerful software platform (ok, for a given set of hardware).
Misleading titles? Inflammatory blurbs? Keep in mind that Slashdot is a tabloid.
The language is a serious turn off for most developers I know.
Well, in that case, why is it on the front page?
Surely if a
simon
OK, I RTFA'd but I've yet to understand where the AT&T exclusivity deal fits Apple's oh so grand strategy. Funny the suthor doesn't mention it either... afraid to lose an advertiser I suppose...
Thanks. That was truly one of the first useful summaries I have read in a while. Now I can skip TFA
"Doubt your doubts and believe your beliefs." -- Switchfoot, Ode to Chin
What strategy?
1. Make glitzy 'must have' consumer gadget.
2. Lock everyone into your distribution network.
3. Profit.
Business as usual.
I've got your sig, right here.
Although it is "stuff", I guess. Apple has ALWAYS been about the software - there has only been one point at which buying their hardware was advisable on any level, in the age of the G4. The PC quickly whipped their ass and the Mac became a PC (in the x86 sense.) Irony.
However, Apple has always been pretty bad at the hardware, with the exception of the intel-based macbooks. It looked sexy, but had serious flaws. For example, macs didn't have accelerated graphics (not even ANY 2d accel) until late in the Mac II era. But we're talking about a machine designed to be used only graphically. This seems like a major oversight - and it is. If the Amiga had been competently marketed instead of the company being sucked dry, today it would be "Apple who?"
Apple has ALSO always tried to make you do things their way, and if you don't like it, you can fuck off. These days you can see that in the form of their latest bid to prevent people buying iPhones without a contract. You could also see it in the iPhone with the fact that originally there was to be NO user-developed software beyond webapps, and even today you have to run a special OS release that Apple can (and HAS) terminate at will, or accidentally.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
That someone imported into Australia, interesting device. Not sure I'm interested in it though.
There's a bit of scope in the market for software giants to chip into this.
gPhone - Targetting non-evil people, has 11 buttons, 0-9 and a "dial/hangup/camera/gps/play music/search" button
MSPhone - Steve Ballmer made one for himself out of a tennis racket, twine and bleach, bundled with a left over Zune to provide fully functioning WMA support.
jPhone (I know a lot of phones run java already) - You get two phones, a client phone which makes all the calls, and a larger server phone which does all the connecting to the towers. You can upgrade to a 3-tier mobile phone system, using mochaFrappeLite. Bundled with a free tweed jacket with leather patches.
Task Mangler
Apple is, like Cisco, primarily a software company. It's Apple's software that sells its hardware, so while their revenue model is based on hardware sales, it's the software that makes them happen. No matter how nice Apple's hardware might be, without their software they'd sell no more than any other boutique hardware vendor, and once they burned through their cash reserves and liquid assets they'd just be another Alienware waiting to be bought by Dell or HP.
Focussing on their hardware, whether it's the iMac or iPhone, is definitely missing the point. This guy definitely gets it.
One thing that I would like to see more of is details of the ad-hoc licensing. My google-fu is failing me there.
However, even the ad hoc license is not the wide-open solution that the open source community ultimately desires. An iPhone user should be able to opt into installing and running unsigned applications, a capability offered by all competing mobile platforms. This is the showstopper for me. A smartphone without a real freeware ecosystem will never truly thrive, for the same reasons that that open source development and commercial s/w development drive each other on standard platforms.
Sure it's the software, but it's also the whole ecosystem, which Jobs likes to control to deliver a finer experience. Sure Google can offer so much more, but if somebody put Android on a crappy hardware with bad programming so it's experience sucks there's nothing Google can do about it. And who's going to install Adobe AIR on their WinMo or BB? Now Apple has basically become the first to hand you the whole cloud computing experience on a mobile phone.
I suspect that part of Apple's restrictive software distribution strategy is to avoid malware and crapware from creeping into the iPhone ecosystem. It's something like a walled garden or customs & border protection model for software distribution. Although I'm sure that enterprising criminals will find ways to break into the iPhone, Apple's approach does raise barriers to drive-by downloads, worms, trojans, and socially-engineered installations of malware.
Time will tell whether restricting software distribution for the iPhone is a net positive or negative in either creating a stable, easy-to-use, secure environment for mobile computing or in stifling development for a subset of developers.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
I don't have the skills to be developer and maybe I'm don't know something you know but here is what I see: If I can develop an application for the iPhone, I can be an independent developer without having to go through anyone but Apple. Millions of users can buy my app easily. I don't have to worry about maintaining an infrastructure for a yearly $99 license. If I charge $10, I get to keep $7. If 14 people in the world buy it, I've broken even. If 10,000 people buy my app, I've made $70,000. That is why I think a lot of people are interested: the potential of it.
Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
And if you're a PC developer, then you can be independent without having to go through anyone full stop. It's a crying shame, and a testament to the egregious and undue influence the telecom industry has over our government, that the cell phone market isn't like that too. This kind of shit -- that is, requiring apps to have the "blessing" of the device manufacturer or service provider to work -- ought to be illegal!
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
You forgot to include the value of your time to develop the application, any time it might take to market it (e.g., even if it's just posting to Slashdot), any support costs, taxes, etc. Also, if 10K people might buy your app for their iPhone, there might be 100K people who might buy it if had a wider cell phone base, or 1000K people who might buy it if it was available for PCs, etc., so you might be chasing a tiny "profit pool" anyway if you only target the iPhone.
Microsoft has a similar model going with MSDN and lesser licenses and so do thousands of other vendors with a proprietary platform and a paid SDK/API/dev environment.
The $99 is there basically to protect Apple from the total time-wasters; Apple would otherwise give this away free so they can get developers, developers, developers.
In that case Jobs has a pretty massive constipation. I hope he finds relief in some way.
Will the iPhone eventually kill the iPod? If you're going to carry a phone and an MP3 player anyway, won't you want to combine them? Especially since Apple is ripping the iTouch people for extra dosh on every upgrade.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
You're pretty much right, but I think it's worth mentioning that although the software is really the keystone of Apple's success, they've also got the ability to make decent hardware if the need arises. They didn't have to wait for someone to release an mp3 player with a scroll wheel. They decided that that'd be the best interface for their iPod software(or more likely the two evolved together), and so they designed their own hardware. The same happened to a lesser extend with the iPhone. Apple didn't need to convince a phone manufacturer to build a handset that was basically just a big multi-touch capable screen, they went and designed their own.
It's also important to notice that those hardware specifics are generally tied to hardware requirements to make the user-interface work. That is to say, it ties really directly and clearly back into the software. At the same time that Apple is designing new hardware features to interface with their software, they've been generally moving towards more commodity hardware for the guts of their stuff. While the iMac has a history of the outside looking rather unusual compared to most computers, the components inside the shell are usually pretty standard stuff that'd be just as at home in a PC as in a Mac. The recent-ish switch to Intel being one of the most obvious examples.
It's a pretty reasonable strategy for product design, especially considering the consumer market.
One time I threw a brick at a duck.
Their strategy is pretty easy to decode:
1. make money.
2. make money.
3. make money, so that we can
4. make even more money.
I think they are doing great. Just for kicks (and to kick myself), I looked at how much I could have made if I had just invested $1000 in Apple in 1985. Taking the stock splits into account, that stock would be worth more than $500,000.
Apple is a great example of how you can take a fanatical fan base, show them nothing but contempt, charge outrageous amounts of money for everything connected with your products... and be adored all the more for it. THAT'S the kind of stock worth investing in, but it's a shame that setup is so difficult to replicate.
And... best of all, they are eating Linux's lunch. If someone hates Microsoft SO much, they aren't going to get Linux. They are going to buy a Mac, of course, and get locked in to that money sink (at least $150 in El Jobso's pocket every time they make a point release is great for Apple's bottom line!).
While Linux likewise has the fanatical user base... they just have no way of monetizing it. Linux users like being locked into that platform, but not enough to actually pay for anything. They are happy to use hardware two generations out of date, happy with being completely locked into FOSS (since extremely few companies will write for Linux), etc, but not happy enough to actually spend any money supporting what they supposedly believe in. Look at Red Hat- they've been doing poorly for years now, and that's not going to change (although their dropping the failed "Linux on the Desktop" project will undoubtedly help them a great deal).
While Apple has been gaining market share (up to 4-5%)... Linux's has remained flat for the past ten years (always around 0.65%, even as the size of the market has virtually exploded). Meaning... every Apple sold is coming from Linux's share of the market (either actual or potential). Which is good, since Linux has no chance of succeeding in competition with Microsoft, while Apple can do quite well with a tiny market share.
I don't envision a place where carrriers will allow anybody to download and install Android on any device. They will try to lock it down as much as possible by customizing to their liking then pass the fee to the consumers
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There's another reason.
/.er humorously said that this was because it wasn't not Java.
/. isn't popular at all. Only NEXTSTEP and its various clones (Mac OS X, GnuStep) use it.
.NET language (hello microsoft drooldrones) LISP (yes (that even means (support (for it (in emacs))))) etc.
One
There's a grain of through there.
Obj-C as pointed by a
iPhone developers will have to learn yet another C variant, to which they are most probably not used. Some of those developer may even never learned C or C++ in the first place.
Java is the platform attracting the most mindshare currently for embed platform (keep in mind it was initially designed for it) and the MIDP platform you find on lot of embed device is quite efficient. Java is a popular language for programming embed software.
Python is also a very popular platform for fast development. Lots of developers are singing it praises (see xkcd for a caricature).
Perl and Ruby are other scripting language that have some momentum too.
All those language have way to use native C and C++ APIs. (SWIG is an example of tool to automate such C/C++-to-scripting-language-of-choice bridges)
Had Apple gone for a C/C++ SDK, they would made it available to C and C++ developers (both are maybe the world's most popular language, even if not the most high level or efficient) but also for Java developers (very popular on embed platforms), for Perl/Python/Ruby (hello young motivate university students) for C# and other
By going for Obj-C Apple made their SDK available to Obj-C developers. All 2 of them.
(and the third one who's motivated enough to learn Obj-C).
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
I think the point he's trying to make is that he doesn't have to worry about any infrastructure. He doesn't need a hosting account, he doesn't have to create a license scheme, he doesn't have to worry that if he gets popular his server goes down. All he has to do is pay Apple the $99 and he's good to go. That actually seems like it might be worth the tradeoff of having to go through Apple.
Check out DRM-free movies at http://www.bside.com
Uh, you do realize that all but the new hardware features (GPS and 3G) will be available to iPhone 1.0 (and iPod Touch) users. You don't have to buy a new phone to upgrade to the new OS.
And out of curiosity how do you know they could port new features back to older models? I'd guess it had as much to with hardware as anything. For instance, I suspect playing video on a first gen nano simply wasn't possible.
I disagree. There are dozens of phones out that look very similar to the iPhone, by intention. Nah, Apple's strategy with the iPhone is the same one they used with the iPod. Enter a market with a product that is not cheaper or more featureful than the competition, but usability test the heck out of it, including the surrounding services and software. Provide only the features that work really, really well and easily. For the most part, people buy and use iPhones because a lot of the features present on other smartphones are just too hard to use for the average person. They're fine for geeks, but just not there for normal people. This explains why iPhone users actually use the features of their phones more often than users of competing phones. Is the iPhone the only one that can look up your location on a map and then find the closest sushi place and it's phone number? Nope. If it was my father using it, though, I'd sure rather he had an iPhone so he could do it in less than ten minutes and didn't have to ask me questions.
Basically, it is the same reason the Wii is selling so well, they expanded an existing market by making it more suited to the masses.
All I want for my iPhone is enough disk space to do its regular stuff and have Wikipedia at the same time. Then it's the perfect gadget.
-Lars
Equally yikes - yes, let's keep you away from the OSS developers side of the house. This is about not losing money just because of wanting to play around with the platform.
This kind of app (the <=$100 expected return one) is made for fun, as a hobby.
If you were going on a holiday in the Bahamas with your family and you somehow managed to offload some ancient Trolls pencil sharpeners (or whatever) that paid for the flight and hotel, would you argue that the trip was a loss because it didn't pay for time lost at work?
I won't, so no cost
OK, but again that's in the fun basket, not in the work one.
I will support not support it at all, or only at my leisure
Good point. I will report revenue and pay taxes and so will have to sell 20 copies instead of 14. Many won't since this whole scheme seems to be a tax-evasion mechanism, at least for non-American developers.
If a million people want a better app based on this little thing I wrote, I would expect one of two things to happen
I choose to remain celibate, like my father and his father before him.
A one time fee of $99 isn't much money. I'm sure an open source project could come up with $99 somewhere. After all, if you are going to put thousands, or tens of thousands of dollars worth of developer hours into developing the project, what's $99? Developers also sometimes pay money for domain names (of course, that's more like $10, but it's still spending money to start your free software project). Developers pay for internet access. Web hosting sometimes. They typically pay for the computers they use to do development on, and for the electricity to run those computers. Remember, Free Software is Free, not free. Also, if the application idea you have is interesting, I bet you could get someone else to donate the $99 to get a key if you asked nicely in an appropriate forum, mailing list, etc. Someone who was interested in seeing such a Free Software application developed, but who wasn't interested in developing it themselves.
Also, potentially multiple projects could share a key. The article also stated that you could sign as many applications as you wanted with that key, so organizations like Apache Foundation which sponsor dozens of projects can use a single key.
In any case, an argument that you don't want to pay $99 dollars is not an argument that you cannot develop Free Software for the iPhone. Granted, it would be nice of Apple if they were to offer free or very cheap keys for Free Software projects (after all, they've benefited tremendously by using a LOT of Free Software, such as BSD, khtml/webkit, Samba, Apache, GCC, etc), but my point is, I haven't yet seen a good reason given why it would be particularly difficult to do Free Software for the iPhone?
See, here's the thing: there's a huge fucking difference between having this service be available, and having it be mandatory. Having it available is good; I agree that it would be very convenient for small proprietary developers. Having it mandatory is bad, because it locks out Free Software and hobbyists.
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
http://www.appleinsider.com/print.php?id=4190
Seems like a good idea, to be able to separate from the herd. I think Apple has the resources to do it, too, what with their latest, greatest marketshare-gobbling product.
I think you're missing the point of FOSS. The whole point is to allow people to scratch their own itch. Naturally, that's going to take them in different directions. Naturally, that also means that UI designers are going to go down different roads. Maybe an analogy will help explain what I mean.
:)
There's an old carpenter's saying that has been adopted by us geeks that you may have heard: "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Well, I don't want just a hammer. I want a full toolbox, the pegboard full of specialized tools behind the workbench, all the power tools in the cabinet to the left, and the floor full of standalone workstation tools (lathes, bandsaws, table saws, etc.) for when I want to do some really heavy work. I don't expect my woodworking tools to all look and act alike. Why should I expect my computer tools to do so when they do such different jobs?
I should probably note here that I seem to be a rarity in that I really don't like OS/X's UI. It is missing features that I regard as basic requirements after years of using Linux. While not exhaustive, my list of things that I think it's missing include true maximized windows, multiple workspaces, the ability to having more than one app displaying by default, etc. OS/X showcased 'features' that I REALLY hate are things like the single menu bar at the top of the screen instead of letting each app display its own menu as part of the window, that incredibly annoying app dock at the bottom, and the very thing that you like most about it; the lack of flexibility in UI.
That's not to say either of us is right or wrong about UI choices, btw. What works for you doesn't work for me and vice versa. It's just that in my view, OS/X's major fault is that it assumes that everyone wants to work the way that their UI designers have laid things out. It thinks all anyone wants is a hammer and not a full toolbox.
In actuality, the incredible flexibility of the FOSS development model and therefore Linux is a strength, not a weakness. It is why you see Linux used for everything from the smallest embedded device all the way up to the largest supercomputers and everything in between. No other OS out there combines that flexibility (the *BSDs can actually exceed it depending on how you measure) with its level of popularity. At this point in time, no other OS out there has the breadth and depth of available applications. Again, you can argue case by case that specific Linux apps or classes of apps don't measure up to counterparts available on other platforms. Taken as a whole, however, it's clear that no other OS can boast as broad a range of successful applications.
In sum, my contention is that the very thing that you decry, the broad range of UI tools and interfaces, is what will benefit Linux on the desktop the most. The truly successful UI stuff will continue gain popularity and see more widespread use as time goes by. The less successful ones will collect a smaller number of adherents. Some will only see use in niches. Others will simply fade away over time.
In all of this, who loses? Certainly not the developer community at large, although some number of them will inevitably see their personal favorites wither and die. The developer community will be much larger than it would be if you forced everyone to follow a single model. (assuming you could force a bunch of FOSS developers down a single path. Talk about herding cats!)
Contrary to what you seem to believe, I don't think the users will be negatively affected, either. We are by nature an extremely adaptable species. You may find this hard to believe, but people have been adapting to new UIs ever since Ogg first tied a rock to a stick that Mog had been using to hit Gog over the head. It probably took Mog at most two tries to figure out which end was the UI and which was the business end of his new club.
Didn't the Newton come out before the Palm Pilot? The iPhone is a do-over of the Newton in a sense with modern technology. Apple has become expert in determining when Moore's Law catches up to an application to make it worth while. On the iPhone you could say they jumped the gun by releasing the first one without 3G and they should have waited another year. Or it was a warm up to get the 'impossible to see ahead of time' bugs out. Before lowering the price making it appealing to the general population. Either way, I think they know what they are doing. Another example, they did this with the ipod too. The very first version only worked with Mac.
Just set me up a basic sig... 10 PRINT "Gordon Aplin" : GOTO 10