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New Study Shows Solar System Is Uncommon

Iddo Genuth writes "Research conducted by a team of North American scientists shows our solar system is special, contrary to the accepted theory that it is an average planetary system. Using computer simulations to follow the development of planets, it was shown that very specific conditions are needed for a proto-stellar disk to evolve into a solar system-like planetary system. The simulations show that in most cases either no planets are created, or planets are formed and then migrate towards the disk center and acquire highly elliptical orbits." The research was published in Science magazine; here's the paper on ArXiv (PDF).

36 of 290 comments (clear)

  1. Great! by vigmeister · · Score: 5, Funny

    Ever since mothers were allowed into academia, all their research has been telling us is that we are SPECIAL.

    Cheers!

    --
    Atheist: Buddhist in a Prius
    1. Re:Great! by tomtomtom777 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I wouldn't read it like that

      Space is still the big unknown. If this "shows' anything, it seems more probable that this 'shows' that the simulations aren't complete enough yet.

      If they would deduce this from actual statistical data, it would show something, but deducing this from simulation seems a a bit to trustful to the current state of science if you ask me

    2. Re:Great! by 4D6963 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I agree. Basing conclusions off simulation models is risky, mainly considered how in the domain of planetary simulations, well established models get entirely questioned every once in a while.

      And at this point even actual statistical data is hard to use to conclude anything about our solar system, because of our limited observation capabilities, what we know has a heavy statistical bias.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    3. Re:Great! by I+cant+believe+its+n · · Score: 3, Funny

      If this "shows' anything, it seems more probable that this 'shows' that the simulations aren't complete enough yet.

      Of course. They did not even mention Great A'Tuin, so how could their model be complete?

      --
      She made the willows dance
    4. Re:Great! by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Number of Planetary systems we have completely explored - None! - We found a new (dwarf) planet Eris 2,500 kilometres in diameter and 27% more massive than Pluto in 2003

      All the other planetary systems we have found have massive sampling bias (we can only detect large planets, and easily detect close orbiting large planets)

      All of the systems like ours are undetectable or nearly undetectable at present

      It's a black swan problem - Until the 17th century a black swan was a metaphor for something that did not exist ... then Australia was discovered along with Cygnus atratus

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
  2. What is rare? by kinabrew · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If even one thousandth of one percent of stars form solar systems similar to this one, that would still be quite significant.

    1. Re:What is rare? by Awptimus+Prime · · Score: 3, Funny

      This is assuming the "E.T." is made of meat, like us, which I feel is a common mistake we make when thinking of what could exist elsewhere.

      I blame Star Trek.

  3. Under which model? by Xiroth · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I have to ask: Under which solar formation model was this conclusion drawn? Because from what I understand, there are a number of competing theories, none of which have come anywhere near being conclusively proven. I actually studied under the creator of one of the models, Andrew Prentice, and was in a position to watch as the predictions of various hypotheses were proven true or false. We've got a long way to go in the field, from what I understand.

    1. Re:Under which model? by rasman1978 · · Score: 5, Funny

      You were an apprentice under A. Prentice?

      --
      MHNATY.
  4. Re:Have you every programmed a gravity sim? by 4D6963 · · Score: 4, Informative

    I'm entirely missing your point about programming gravity simulations (disclaimer : I have programmed a solar system simulator), and why it should explain the (according to you) rarity of nearly circular orbits. Planetary systems starting off as accretion discs with every original object have a nearly circular orbit, I don't see why planets should keep it, at least for a while.

    --
    You just got troll'd!
  5. Climate Science by bencollier · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I dislike pointing this out, but that's an interesting parallel with climate science. I remember hearing recently (on Slashdot?) that climate models primarily base their data on one or two sources that, if altered slightly, would throw the simulations pretty severely, one way *or* the other.

    1. Re:Climate Science by asc99c · · Score: 4, Informative

      It's an interesting parallel with anything where you base a conclusion off a simulation. But with climate science there are very significant differences.

      With our own planet we have reasonable records of how conditions changed in the past and the results of that. We've got extremely detailed recording of the current situation and the recent past. We've got firmly established science showing why those changes would cause those results. The world's climate is a little chaotic and the simulations match that state of affairs.

      When modelling planetary discs, we're nowhere near as sure of the physics. We can only get decent observations of our own solar system, and there isn't a disc of dust to observe. Even the best telescopes can barely see the discs of dust around stars. We could barely detect our own solar system around another star, let alone watch it form.

    2. Re:Climate Science by peragrin · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Actually no we don't have a lot of reasonable data. We have a few hundred point sources from before 1920, and it slowly goes up from there. indeed according to climatologists this past summer should have been warmer than average, yet instead it was cooler. climatologists will need to be right more than 50% of the time if they want me to believe them. Heck just this past weekend the only thing they predicted correctly was the daily highs and lows. They were so far off the mark with wind, clouds and rain that it isn't even funny.

      The Farmer almanac predict a cold winter,for most of the USA, while climatologists say it will be warmer than normal. Yet the track record of climatologists is horrible, the farmer's almanac is right about 80% of the time.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    3. Re:Climate Science by Ihlosi · · Score: 4, Insightful
      climatologists will need to be right more than 50% of the time if they want me to believe them. Heck just this past weekend the only thing they predicted correctly was the daily highs and lows.

      And you'll need to stop confusing climatologists with meteorologists.

    4. Re:Climate Science by vidarh · · Score: 4, Informative

      Climatologists are now working with reasonable proxy data for the last 1300 years, not just "a few hundred point sources". These proxies are things we can measure today but that reflect past temperatures, such as sediments, growth rate of coral etc.

    5. Re:Climate Science by v1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That sort of situation is commonly called "the butterfly effect". As the saying goes, a butterfly flapping its wings over a highway in australia could be the deciding factor as to the path of a hurricane in the gulf three weeks from now.

      While that's a little extreme, it's meant to illustrate the point of highly interactive systems that are "extremely sensitive to initial conditions". For example, a single microbe that hitchhiked on Spirit or Opportunity could lead to the terraforming of mars a millennia later.

      Weather has always been considered highly sensitive to initial conditions, meaning very subtle differences in the weather conditions today can have a profound effect on the weather a week later. The interesting thing about weather is that it doesn't take a millennia to change things miles away, it can do it in a couple hours.

      --
      I work for the Department of Redundancy Department.
    6. Re:Climate Science by asc99c · · Score: 4, Informative

      Growth rate of coral is one data point. You can also look at ice cores, tree rings, stalactites, isotope analysis of rocks. And sediments can refer to all kinds of interesting information, both organic and inorganic in nature.

      You might be able to cast doubt on coral growth rings, but when everything is pointing in the same direction, you've got to pay attention to the most obvious reason for that.

    7. Re:Climate Science by sleeponthemic · · Score: 5, Funny

      climatologists will need to be right more than 50% of the time if they want me to believe them. Heck just this past weekend the only thing they predicted correctly was the daily highs and lows.

      And you'll need to stop confusing climatologists with meteorologists.

      What does a meteor have to do with this weekends weather?

      Leave science to the scientologists I say..

      (They're the authentically named 'ologists for the job).

      --
      I record my sleeptalking
    8. Re:Climate Science by Ambitwistor · · Score: 4, Informative

      How does anyone know what else might have affected the growth rate of coral at the time?

      For one, they look at corals of the same species from around the world which grow in regions of different temperature, salinity, etc., and see how those factors are affect the coral's growth.

      The other poster has a more complete answer to the broader question.

      but you can't tell someone what the temperatures were without a measurement of said temperatures with an accurate temperature measurement device

      That's manifestly false. Oxygen isotope proxies in ice cores are one of the prime examples of good paleothermometers, when they can be used; they depend on the rate at which heavier isotopes are transported in warmer or colder air, which is just physics. You don't need to worry about biological fractionation and such. Other proxies do good or fair jobs, depending on the type and the circumstances. Ocean proxies often do better than land proxies, since conditions are more stable. Almost all proxies are better at measuring temperature changes than absolute temperatures, though.

      We have no reasonably accurate measurement of temperature before the existence of reasonably accurate measurement devices.

      I'm sure you came to that conclusion from a thorough reading and analysis of the paleoproxy climate literature.

    9. Re:Climate Science by JTsyo · · Score: 5, Informative

      Meteorology (from Greek:meteoron, "high in the sky"; and logos, "knowledge")

  6. if our solar system is uncommon... by Brain+Damaged+Bogan · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... then what chances do we have of finding a solar system populated entirely by hot large-perky-breasted nymphomaniac supermodels that love nerds?

    --
    -- Sex is the antonym of pringles. Once you pop it's time to stop.
    1. Re:if our solar system is uncommon... by freedom_india · · Score: 4, Funny

      Lets say... zero.
      If you cam't find a girl on Earth, what are your chances against alien supermen? particularly someone who is built like Gort?
      In a bar fight, you can only win at ASDF keyboard battles.

      --
      "Doing what i can, with what i have." ~ Burt Gummer
  7. If you think thats rare.. by Layth · · Score: 5, Funny

    Just what are the odds that every alien encounter will be with bipeds that have vocal communication!

    1. Re:If you think thats rare.. by 4D6963 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Very thin. Most aliens species communicate by genital contact. You heard me! SO WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR TO GIVE ALL YOUR MONEY TO SETI?!?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  8. Dupe from 3 weeks ago by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Informative

    Solar Systems Like Ours Are Likely To Be Rare

    KentuckyFC writes
    "Astronomers have discovered some 250 planetary systems beyond our own, many of them with curious properties. In particular, our theories of planet formation are challenged by 'hot Jupiters,' gas giants that orbit close to their parent stars. Current thinking is that gas giants can only form far away from stars because gas and dust simply gets blown away from the inner regions. Now astronomers have used computer simulations of the way planetary systems form to understand what is going on (abstract). It looks as if gas giants often form a long way from stars and then migrate inwards. That has implications for us: a migrating gas giant sweeps away all in its path, including rocky planets in the habitable zone. And that means that solar systems like ours are likely to be rare."

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  9. Let's define "common" by Spit · · Score: 3, Funny

    Modelling has indicated that the solar-system isn't as common as previously thought. Scientists estimate that only 2^2340987890 similar solar systems exist in the local group.

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    POKE 36879,8
  10. Special one by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Research conducted by a team of North American scientist shows our solar system is special

    ... therefore, God created this solar system specially for man, which is the center of the Universe.

    I love this based-on-new-studies "science".

    Just because we can't see (yet) any other kinds of solar systems, doesn't necessarily mean ours is "special" !

  11. How does study compare with observed results by jools33 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    From what I've read here: http://exoplanets.org/aasjune07s/pr_280507.htm there have been some 236 exoplanets detected to date. I believe that they have the ability to see if these exoplanets are in highly eliptical orbits or not - so how does this simulation tie with the observed reality?
    The description of Gliese 436 for example seems to also be an exception to this simulation model - so if out of 236 finds we are already finding systems similar to sol - then this simulation model must be at fault or?

  12. Re:Have you every programmed a gravity sim? by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 5, Funny

    Did you now that the Earth does in fact have an elliptical orbit, and that in January it is actually three million miles closer than it is in July?

    Did you also know that the primary reason there is solid carbon dioxide on Mars is the density of the atmosphere, and not the distance to the sun?

    Did you also know that if your mommy was any uglier, or your daddy wasn't drunk, you wouldn't exist? It's true! The existence of life is contingent on many factors.

    And besides, Charley's in the trees, man, he's in the freakin' trees!

  13. Incomplete conclusion by HuguesT · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The article says that for a wide range of parameters protoplanetar disks produce a solar system-like outcome relatively rarely.

    The research says nothing about the distribution of parameters in real situations, i.e. is the range of considered parameters realistic?

    This is nice research but only preliminary.

  14. "accepted theory" by JetScootr · · Score: 4, Interesting

    contrary to the accepted theory that it is an average planetary system.
    IIRC, ours is considered typical only because no data existed to show it wasn't. That doesn't make the idea into a 'theory'. Discoveries of extrasolar planets and improved models on more powerful supercomputers are bound to evolve this "Unintelligently Defined Theory" into a better creation story.
    ;)

    --
    Pavlov wouldn't be so famous if he'd used a can opener instead of a bell.
  15. They may be uncommon... by fireheadca · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...but slashdot articles about it aren't.

  16. political correctness, please! by paniq · · Score: 5, Funny

    our solar system isn't special, it's orbitally challenged.

    --
    Do not trust this signature.
  17. Re:Have you every programmed a gravity sim? by meringuoid · · Score: 4, Insightful
    You mean accidentally reaching a circular orbit again after the orbit had already become elliptical? I think that'd be extremely unlikely. When various objects act on one another (as they invariably do), they're most likely to become more elliptical, not less.

    Try modelling tidal effects in your simulation. These tend to drive orbits towards the circular over time.

    --
    Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
  18. Very poor summarization and implied conclusions by argStyopa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The summary != TFA. Surprise!

    "Due to the complexity of the developing system, which includes the disk-planet and planet-planet interactions described, the simulations resulted in random systems. Nevertheless, two dominant cases were detected.

    In a disk with low mass and high viscosity, the gas in the disk is removed before a planet can form, resulting in a system that has only rocky, icy bodies. At the other end, in a disk with high mass and low viscosity, planets are formed but are pulled towards the center of the system and acquire highly elliptical orbits around the star.

    In the intermediate case, planets form but undergo only modest migration towards the star and their orbits don't become as elliptical. This seems to be the case of the solar system. The simulation showed that this case is realized in a small number of systems, meaning the solar system does not resemble most planetary systems. "

    The report is saying that along a spectrum of possibilities, there are a number which produce results different than our system.
    1) It says nothing about the real life DISTRIBUTION of these alternatives. If only a narrow band of X values produce the results you want, this isn't necessarily a problem if you're in the high point of a steep bell curve. Look at a H-R diagram - there are clearly 'sweet spots' in stellar development across the range of possibilities. Nothing says planetary development is any different.
    2) This of course means little. There is no evidence either way to suggest that life (which is the point of looking for solar systems - I don't think we just have some weird fetish for similar solar systems) can or can't develop on those alternate results. Hell, we may find that solar systems with nearly circular orbits are rare but that's good because they produce the Galaxy's retarded civilizations, and everyone ELSE out there is laughing/pitying us.

    FWIW run your own particle/gravity simulation, and find the same results yourself: http://www.spore.com/comm/prototypes. It's awesome, and finally a use for that uber-mega-cpu you just bought.

    --
    -Styopa
  19. Converted by Brass+Cannon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I was once one of the believers. I was sure that Star Trek like civilizations were out there just waiting to shake my hand one day. Then I heard about the Fermi Paradox and the missing link hit me. All of those people who point at the Drake equation are only seeing half of the story. The Drake equation tells us that because of the incredible size of the galaxy, even if the probability of intelligent life is very small, there would still be millions of smart planets. What it fails to address is that not only is the galaxy very big, it is also very old. Assuming that there are lots of intelligent planets out there, and that given our own technology level we could colonize the entire galaxy in about 50 million years if we put our minds to it, we should have seen evidence of some colonization effort from some other civilization by now. Try reading "Rare Earth" to see the long list of things that had to happen to make intelligent life on Earth possible. The basic premise of that text is that basic life (bacteria etc) is common but complex life (plants and up) is either very rare or we are it. There is no paradox. They are not there. We are special.