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The Flying Giant Is 40 Years Old

Ponca City, We love you writes "Four decades ago, Boeing's prototype 747 took to the skies over Washington State for a 75-minute flight that helped bring cheap airline travel to millions of people and would remain the world's largest commercial aircraft for 37 years until the advent of the double-decker Airbus A380. What made the 747 unique was that it was the first 'wide body' aircraft with more than one aisle — a big step towards reducing the sense of traveling in a narrow tube, and inducing a sense more equivalent to flying in a large room with high ceilings. But back in the 1960s, convincing people that the 747 would fly was a tough call. Joe Sutter, the director of engineering on the project, even spent an hour with Charles Lindbergh, going over all the data to prove that the jumbo would not flip over or become unstable at high speeds. Boeing has sold more than 1,400 jumbos in the past four decades, worth, at today's prices, more than $350 billion and although we might complain of traveling in 'cattle class' we have the 747 to thank for being able to do so at affordable prices."

83 of 366 comments (clear)

  1. Oh how I love planes.. by I_Can't_Fly · · Score: 4, Insightful
    And then hate how they treat you like a farm animal on flights. In fact maybe the flight crew and stewardesses should begin utilizing electronic cattle prods.

    It used to be fun to fly, not any more.

    --
    Is this thing on? Check. Check.
    1. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Rinisari · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wonder how much of that loss of fun is the airlines' fault and how much is the result of the FAA bureaucracy?

    2. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Spazztastic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wonder how much of that loss of fun is the airlines' fault and how much is the result of the FAA bureaucracy?

      Or the result of greed on both parties.

      --
      Posts not to be taken literally. Almost everything is sarcasm.
    3. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by riverat1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      A lot of the loss of fun has to do with deregulation. When the airlines all have to compete on price they're going to squeeze things as much as they can get away with. For most people air travel is expensive enough that they'll put up with it to get the cheapest possible prices.

    4. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by John+Hasler · · Score: 4, Informative

      > And then hate how they treat you like a farm animal on flights.

      Nothing is stopping you from flying first class.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    5. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Alinabi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I wonder how much of that loss of fun is the airlines' fault

      100%. I'm not aware of any FAA regulation mandating 5 passengers per square foot.

      --
      "You can't allow somebody to commit the crime before you detain them." [Condoleezza Rice]
    6. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      So Airlines weren't competing on price prior to deregulation?

      No. Airfares were set by the FAA, so they competed on the quality of service during the flight. If it's the same price and equivalent schedule, do you go for the "free" salmon meal or the peanuts?

      Prior to deregulation, airlines weren't trying to maximize profits?

      Since they couldn't, by law, change the fare, they tried to maximize profits by having the most passengers on the most profitable routes by offer the best of the least expensive services.

      Feel free to pontificate on other stuff you don't understand though.

    7. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by riverat1 · · Score: 2, Informative

      From AC: "So Airlines weren't competing on price prior to deregulation? Prior to deregulation, airlines weren't trying to maximize profits?"

      Before deregulation they were regulated much like public utilities with built in profits. They had assigned routes they could fly and other airlines had to get regulatory approval before they could fly the same routes. But the prices were high enough that many people just didn't fly. I was born in 1952 but never took a commercial airline flight until 1982 and that was paid for by my employer. I've still only flown 4 times for something other than business.

    8. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by phanboy_iv · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Given the current distress of the airline industry, I don't think the hyper cost cutting that happened after dereg is working, and it won't be too long before airlines realize that they will have to offer a good experience to get customers, as they used to.

      Making customers happy is long term good business, and works fine in a deregulated market. The companies have to realize this on their own, though.

    9. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by tenchiken · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Honestly, not the FAA's fault. In fact, it's no-one's fault other then when the 747 started to fly, flying was out of the reach of almost all Americans, save the jet-setters. Nowadays, you can get a non-stop from Denver to Atlanta for $169 bucks. Of course it's going to be a cattle call.

      Do I wish that I could have taken a trip on a 747 in the glory days of Pan Am? Absolutly. Would I rather live now and have the ability to fly to London for $500 bucks? You bet your a$$.

    10. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by frosty_tsm · · Score: 2

      This is why Southwest is doing so amazingly well while a lot of the bigger airlines are struggling. The quality of customer care is so much better even though you give up some things like tray tables in the front row, assigned seats, and in-flight movies.

      At the same time, though, Southwest did have a big advantage: they were paying much lower fuel prices because of some good investments.

    11. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by jcr · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But the prices were high enough that many people just didn't fly.

      Precisely. By deregulating the airline industry, we made it possible for many more people to afford air travel.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    12. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by p0tat03 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      How about the result of consumers winning out? I think people forget just how expensive air travel used to be - no wonder you were treated like a king. Free food, free drinks (some airlines even had free alcohol)...

      The fact of the matter is that airline travel is a *lot* cheaper and more accessible to the average person than it used to be. This is a good thing. It also necessitates us changing our expectation from "floating sky-palace" to "flying Greyhound bus", which is a more appropriate modern analogy.

      If you want the service of yonder years, you can still get it. In fact, you can still get it at approximately the same prices *you used to pay*.

      I for one welcome the democratization of long-distance travel.

    13. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by BattleApple · · Score: 2, Informative

      It was meant to be either.. they designed it with the option to configure it as a cargo or passenger plane. That's why the cockpit is the way it is - to get it above the cargo bay, and the nose can be modified to swing open to load cargo.

    14. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Hordeking · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I wonder how much of that loss of fun is the airlines' fault and how much is the result of the FAA bureaucracy?

      Don't forget the TSA. I really dislike the part where they ask "papers please".

      --
      Disclaimer: The opinions and actions of the US Gov't are in no way representative of those held by this author or its ci
    15. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by e2d2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think they could change this if they took a different approach to those on vacation - specifically creating routes for vacationers and everything they expect. Get them started on their vacation early by providing them with large seats, good food, good movies. For the commuter or typical traveler they could offer a more traditional approach.

      But imagine you want to fly to Japan from NYC. That's quite a long flight. Why not offer people on holiday the option to pamper themselves while flying? Give them a more leisurely route, better service, and better seating. Think a "cruise line" in the air. I bet people like myself would opt for it over the "sardine can to Asia" and be willing to spend the money on it. Sure I can fly first class now, but this whole everyone is the same approach is the past, we need more niche airlines that cater to specifics. I feel like a piece of cattle when flying, like somehow I'm not the consumer anymore and I'm just at the whim of the airline/FAA/TSA/various global agencies. It's become a "privilege".

      BTW, I love to fly. So much I decided to learn how to fly and get my own private pilot's license. But I hate flying the airlines. It's not the same. One is a chore, the other is an experience everyone should try at least once.

    16. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Cyberax · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is: there's virtually no middle ground.

      You either pay through your nose for the business-class seats or you have to fly in cattle-like economic class.

      Personally, I don't want champagne, I don't want caviar - I just want some additional leg and elbow space. I'll gladly pay 1.5x normal rate for it! But usually there's just no such choice :(

    17. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by mdf356 · · Score: 2, Informative

      Bzzzt. Prices feel faster during regulation than after deregulation.

      What about lower fares? Didn't deregulation pay for itself with lower fares? Apparently not. Morgan Stanley shows that airline pricing has been falling for 40 years. Eyeballing the chart, the fall in prices was steeper between 1962 and 1978 than after deregulation.

      --
      Terrorist, bomb, al Qaeda, nuclear, yellowcake, kill, assassinate. Carnivore is dead... long live Echelon.
    18. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by p0tat03 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      But they *do*. It's called first class! I know people who *do* pamper themselves when flying to their vacations, and it's a wonderful way to fly - but it's not for everyone, or indeed even a large portion of the traveling public.

      I think you're suggesting that the cost of first class be lowered - and perhaps it can, I'm certainly not privy to the finances of major airlines. I would like to point out, though, that most people I know only consider spending good money on *the vacation*, and not the means of getting there. I don't know about you guys in the US, but up here in Canada we have "vacation airlines" that service only popular vacation routes, and completely redefine "cattle class" (in the bad way). Consumers are clearly more about cheap than comfort, and unfortunately the airlines are giving them precisely what they want.

    19. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by dgatwood · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I don't know what flights you're flying on, but I used to be able to consistently get flights from CA to TN for $200-$300 round trip, and sometimes as low as $150. Last Christmas, I actually flew with frequent flyer miles first class because it was going to be somewhere around $1,000 for the round trip and it took 5,000 fewer frequent flyer miles for first class than it did for coach. This Christmas, it's looking like I'm going to have a hard time getting below $1500 for that round trip---more expensive by a factor of 10 in the same number of years.

      There's something really appalling about spending $1,500 for a round trip cattle car flight with no food that previously cost $200, came with a meal, allowed us to check two bags at no charge (instead of zero now), and didn't require us to strip down, remove our shoes, and generally be treated to subhuman conditions all for the "privilege" of having to wolf down dinner while running to catch the connecting flight because your first leg was delayed an hour due to a problem with one of the engines that should have been caught by routine maintenance but wasn't because they aren't paying their maintenance people well enough....

      If you buy tickets months ahead of time, you used to be able to get good deals. These days, by the time the return flight becomes available for sale, all the cheap seats on the flight over are sold out because everybody is buying so far ahead trying to keep from getting utterly screwed by the skyrocketing prices.

      What it looks like from my perspective is that airlines are cutting the flights on minor routes to the bare minimum and gouging the passengers to limit ridership, then using the excess profits from the gouging to cover the operating losses on long haul flights like LA to NYC nonstop and on non-holiday-season flights to other places

      Maybe things have gotten cheaper in comparison with... say 1980... but compared with the late 90s or the first part of this decade pre-9/11, they've gone through the roof. It has gone from Greyhound being more expensive to being a fourth as much almost overnight. Trains are now cheaper. Buying a cheap used car and driving across is sometimes cheaper, including the fuel costs. IIRC, flights to Europe last year were running almost double what they were just three years earlier. And so on. I'm just not seeing these price drops that you're seeing except when flying in the middle of the year. If you fly anywhere from mid-November through mid-January, expect to pay a lot more than you did just a few years ago.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    20. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by david.given · · Score: 5, Informative

      But they *do*. It's called first class! I know people who *do* pamper themselves when flying to their vacations, and it's a wonderful way to fly - but it's not for everyone, or indeed even a large portion of the traveling public.

      I fly long distance (London->Beijing, London->Dallas, about ten hours for either trip) quite frequently, and usually go British Airways. The BA long-haul planes are usually 777s, and carry four classes:

      • Economy (a.k.a. cattle car class); three rows of three seats. They're very narrow, but there's a surprising amount of legroom, far more than in short-haul flights. Can be very cheap (£300 return from Heathrow to Dallas!).
      • Premium economy (a.k.a. business class lite); 2-4-2 rows. Wider seats, possibly a bit more legroom, and best of all there's actually a bit more space between you and your unwashed neighbour so you don't actually have to make skin contact if you don't want to. This is tailored to business budgets, so it's more expensive than economy but not overly so.
      • Club World (a.k.a. pod people class). Lie flat beds in your own little cubicle! I got into one once, via a free upgrade, and they're fantastic. The bed is powered and turns into a comfortable chair. You sit head-to-feet with your neighbour, but there's a privacy screen so you never have to talk to them. Decent food, a menu, real crockery, etc. The price is scary.
      • First Class (a.k.a. I don't know anyone that rich class). I don't know what these are like, they don't let people like me into that part of the plane. I assume it's similar to Club World but more so. The price is similar to those long numbers written on the back of your stereo.

      Food and alcohol is free in all classes, and in fact these days, even in economy the food is pretty good. Snacks, drinks etc can be had for the asking; they encourage you to go to the galley rather than ring for a steward. Personal TVs all round, laptop power everywhere but economy. What's best, the staff have always been uniformly friendly and polite to me --- although it helps that I've flown enough to know how everything works and so know how to behave so I don't make their lives harder.

      BTW, if you're ever travelling long haul, go visit seatguru.com. It'll tell you everything you ever need to know about where the best seats are. (On these 777s, you want the front row premium economy seats. Extra legroom and storage and you can get out without climbing over your neighbour! Pity that these days they send me out economy class...)

    21. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Judge_Fire · · Score: 2, Informative

      A Premium Economy option has actually started to emerge.

    22. Re:Oh how I love planes.. by Alioth · · Score: 2, Informative

      For the kind of routes the 747 flies, there IS that option. For example, British Airways has a "World Traveller Plus" - more legroom, mains plug for your laptop etc., and it costs about 1.5 times the normal economy fare.

      I'm flying on BA to Houston in March. Being a cheapskate, I took the normal economy class (I fit the seats, and even in the cheap seats, you get free booze and free food). The return fare from London to Houston is £300 *all inclusive* travelling midweek (about US $450) which is tremendously good value for money, especially since BA's service (at least on that route) is first class.

      I did check the other fares. I will not begrudge the First Class passengers getting on the plane first, or getting their own checkin desk and lounge. The first class round trip fare for the same journey is ... £9000.

  2. So little progress in aerospace. by TheLink · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Four decades ago:
    747 and concorde launched, first manned moon landing. 40 years later, NASA can barely keep the ISS running (or the shuttle from blowing up).

    I'm curious - how much better are the new planes compared to the 60s version of the 747 in terms of range, payload and efficiency?

    --
    1. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Informative

      Modern aircraft compare extremely well to their 1960s counterparts - the best example is that of 'ETOPS' (Extended Twin Engine Operational Performance Standard), or 'LROPS' as it is known today (Long Range Operational Performance Standard).

      Try finding a 1960s aircraft that is rated to fly for 208 minutes, or nearly 3 and a half hours, on one single engine. Thats how far the technology has come, its extremely reliable.

    2. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Bearhouse · · Score: 5, Funny

      Try finding a 1960s aircraft that is rated to fly for 208 minutes, or nearly 3 and a half hours, on one single engine. Thats how far the technology has come, its extremely reliable.

      Well, there was this one:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_of_st_louis

      It managed more than 33 hours, on a single engine, in 1927.

      Now get off my cloud.

    3. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 2, Funny

      the best example is that of 'ETOPS' (Extended Twin Engine Operational Performance Standard)

      To me, the alternate joke acronym seems to describe the situation more succinctly: "Engines Turn Or Passengers Swim".

    4. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Bearhouse · · Score: 2, Funny

      Glad you liked it :)

    5. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Rich0 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It depends.

      A 747 can't cruise on 2 engines - it needs at least 3 (depending on which two are left it probably could hobble back to a controlled landing after quickly dumping fuel - more of a powered glide than flight). So, a double engine failure on a 747 isn't really much better than a double engine failure on a 777.

      Now, what was an issue prior to ETOPS was how long the jet could run on one engine. Prior to ETOPS a 777 could only reliably run on one engine for a short time - plenty to land if you were near an airport, but it wasn't designed to cruise for an hour or two. A 747 could run on three engines for a long time.

      The issue is that jet engines become less reliable at their max rated speed. At cruise those engines might be running at 90-94% N1. If you lose an engine, even at the reduced cruising speed that remaining engine might be running closer to 100%. And at the reduced speed it takes longer to get to an airport. With three engines losing 25% of thrust isn't as big a hit on the remaining engines as losing 50% of thrust is.

      However, being that a 747 still needs 3 engines to stay aloft I'm not sure that it becomes any safer than a 777 on an engine-out scenario. If anything I'd say that the 3 remaining engines are 3X as likely to fail as the 1 engine on the 777 - all things being equal.

      In any case, those big planes are just way too heavy to control with engine power. On a glide their decent rates are very high so pulling off a landing without engines is a heroic matter indeed. Pulling it off in water is near-miraculous.

    6. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by nhtshot · · Score: 2, Funny

      That's an airplane designed to fly on a single engine.

      The parent is referring to a multi-engine design that is capable of flying for extended periods of time on a single engine.

      Also, he got the acronym wrong.

      ETOPS: Engines Turn Or Passengers Swim

    7. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by JumboMessiah · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'm not sure your definition of "cruise" in your post, but the idea that a 747 can't stay aloft on 2 engines isn't relatively true. You should be able to maintain FL150 or so, depending upong conditions and fuel load. And if things get hairy, dump fuel until you get below MLW.

      Now, if by "cruise", you meant maintain 490 KTAS at FL350, you are correct. Not gonna happen on 2 engines. But you're talking double engine failures, I'd _much_ rather be on a 747 (4-2 = 2) than a 777 (2-2 = 0). 747's with double engine failures have returned safely on multiple occasions.

      > So, a double engine failure on a 747 isn't
      > really much better than a double engine failure
      > on a 777.

      I agree with the sentiment of your post. More parts/engines, more chances or failure. And high ETOPS rated twins are more economical to operate.

    8. Re:So little progress in aerospace. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hi, I am the airplainer explainer.

      FL150 - flight level 15.0 - 15,000 feet altitude
      MLW - max landing weight
      KTAS - knots true air speed
      FL350 - 35,000 feet altitude

      Have a nice day.

  3. barrel roll by m0s3m8n · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Probably the coolest video of a Boeing passenger jet was the 707's barrel roll. The test pilot got in a bit of trouble BUT WAS NOT FIRED. Needless to say it was only done once.

    --
    Conservative, mod down for violating /. political norms.
    1. Re:barrel roll by JumboMessiah · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That was Tex Johnston and he actually did it twice.

    2. Re:barrel roll by Poppa · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Boeing President was so mad at Tex, that he didn't speak to him for years. This barrel roll was done in front of potential buyers, which did impress them.

      Remember that a commercial airplane is not designed for aerobatic maneuvers. Which means Tex had to maintain a 1G downward force during the roll to ensure fuel stayed in the bottom of the tanks.

      The President was mad because the Company bet the future on the 707. If it didn't sell (and/or if Tex crashed), then the Company would have folded.

      The same thing was true with the 747, the Company bet the farm on this one too. It is such a big investment of capital, that there is no room for failure.

    3. Re:barrel roll by mschuyler · · Score: 3, Informative

      But it did fail--initially. Boeing bet the farm on the 747 expecting ridership to increase. We entered a recession. It did not increase. Boeing went from 135,000 workers to 35,000 workers in the space of a few months. At the time Boeing was a one-horse show just like Seattle and the firm nearly went bankrupt. People left their homes to the banks and moved out of Seattle, Renton, Kent, and Auburn. Someone put up a billboard that said, "Will the last one to leave please turn out the lights." It took years for the local economy to recover. And the 747 caused it.

      Today Seattle and Boeing are both very much more diversified. Anf yeah, Boeing is laying off a few thousand workers--but it's not 100,000 workers.

      --
      How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
    4. Re:barrel roll by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Informative

      But it did fail--initially. Boeing bet the farm on the 747 expecting ridership to increase. We entered a recession. It did not increase. Boeing went from 135,000 workers to 35,000 workers in the space of a few months.

      You've got the and the effects of a number of events all confused.
       
      The 747 didn't fail - thought it's entry into service was rocky due to teething troubles with the engines.
       
      The huge jobs cuts occurred in 1971/72 - a year after the 747 entered service and a year before the recession really took hold in 72/73. The primary cause being massive cutbacks in government spending on aerospace - most notably for Boeing, the 2707 SST.
       
       

      At the time Boeing was a one-horse show just like Seattle and the firm nearly went bankrupt. People left their homes to the banks and moved out of Seattle, Renton, Kent, and Auburn.

      Those four cities have something in common - first they were the heart of Boeing's advanced development, government and space business, and second they weren't where the 747 was being built. Thirty miles north in Everett, where the 747 was being assembled, nobody was turning out the lights.

  4. To celebrate... by CompMD · · Score: 4, Informative

    ...Boeing will fire 10,000 workers!

    I don't say this to troll. I work in the aerospace industry and am watching bright, talented friends and coworkers get laid off left and right.

    1. Re:To celebrate... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ...Boeing will fire 10,000 workers!

      I don't say this to troll. I work in the aerospace industry and am watching bright, talented friends and coworkers get laid off left and right.

      And how would this be different from any other industry today?

  5. Re:777 slimmer and faster than 747 by JumboMessiah · · Score: 5, Interesting

    FYI,

    Standard cruise on a 747 is .85 Mach (567MPH) and a 777 is .84 Mach (560MPH).

    Both of these planes are capable of much greater speeds, the limiting factor..... the sound barrier. They are not designed for the shock wave build up such speeds will generate.

    If you were watching the NatGeo special on Air Force One, you'd of saw the interview with the Air Cap F-16 pilot who had to radio AF1 to actually slow down so he could limit his fuel burn. AF1 was cruising at .90 Mach at the time.

    Don't think for a second these lumbering giants can't get up and move... Those cruise speeds are chosen for maximum efficiency and to limit air frame fatigue.

  6. Re:The 100 year career by Richard_at_work · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If the A380 is a modernised 747 'knockoff', then the Boeing 787 is a modernised Airbus A300 'knockoff'. Doesn't detract from the fact that either plane is simply fantastic.

  7. Re:Cheap and painful by Locke2005 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Consumers have voted with their dollars, and apparently they prefer traveling in "cattle class" to traveling on the Concorde. Who are we to criticize the airline industry for giving the customer what they want?

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  8. it might just be the culmination of transport by circletimessquare · · Score: 4, Insightful

    what i mean by that is, to do better than the 747, one has to go faster further and cheaper. what mode of transport can outdo the 747 on all 3 counts at the same time?

    the 747 is outdone by the concorde in terms of faster, but not further or cheaper. and so the concorde failed because in the end it was a niche tool for the rich: it offered marginally better speed for exorbitant increases in costs. we can't put a nuclear engine safely in an airplane, and so there is no cheaper for the immediate future

    if we exclude extraterrestrial transport, transport on earth is pretty much at its zenith in our lifetimes. until some dramatic technological breakthroughs gives us a mode of transport that is, all at the same time, faster, further, and cheaper than the 747. in fact, on one count, further, the 747 can't really be topped. on that measure, the 747 pretty much is a dream: i, as a middle class westerner, can go anywhere on the earth i want in 24 hours. think about the history of mankind: that's a really incredible power. starting with us sitting on the back of horses, up through wheels, carriages, sails, the steam engine, rails, the ICE, jet engines... what else can there be?

    so until someone invents a technology that can move us as far as the 747, perhaps 10x faster (to make an appreciable difference since 24 hours is a very comfortable amount of time to go to the other end of the globe), and perhaps 2x cheaper, we are in a golden age of transport that will not be surpassed for a very long time. we already have technologies like ramjets that are only used in exotic military applications, so really the bottleneck is cheaper fuel

    until such future time, the 747 is the peak of human transportation technology

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
    1. Re:it might just be the culmination of transport by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Uhm, what? Lets have a look at the 'entirely new' aircraft to have been launched in the past 20 years:

      1. Airbus A330. Fantastic success, sold over 1,000 airframes and continues to sell well.

      2. Boeing 777. Fantastic success, sold over 1,000 airframes and continues to sell well.

      3. Airbus A380. Debatable, yet to be seen.

      4. Boeing 787. Fantastic success, yet to fly, sold over 900 airframes to date.

      5. Airbus A350XWB. Fantastic success, still 4 years to EIS, sold over 450 airframes to date.

      Clean sheet designs are still massively profitable.

    2. Re:it might just be the culmination of transport by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The reason that there has been no 747 competitor until now is that Airbus is still a relatively young company - yes, the A300 was designed and built in the 1970s, but that was a heavily government run project with the sole intention of building a non-US competitive aircraft in a market dominated by US manufacturers. It took until the A320 family in the late 1980s until Airbus as we know it today really came into being, and later successes with the A330 and A340 cemented Airbuses existence.

      Until that happened, there was no manufacturer that *could* rival Boeing - it wasn't a matter of replacement cost, it was simply the fact that Boeing dominated the market even in the US through having the better product available. The lack of a 'family' product (an offering from smallest aircraft to largest aircraft) killed Lockheed, and they exited the civil market after the L-1011 failed, and while McDD did attempt to create a family through the DC-9 and DC-10 models, the gap between the two was too much.

      The 747 actually has enjoyed the best CASM and RASM of any aircraft on the market over the past 40 years, and even today it has only been usurped by the A380 - size really does have a quality all of its own, especially in the aviation industry. A 747-400 still has excellent economics and many airframes will continue to fly well into the next two decades, but a new build A380 has even better economics and airlines are seeing that...

      What you will see over the next 15 years is the 747 passenger variant being phased out with tier 1 airlines for either larger twins (777, 787 or A350), or the A380. The 747 may still hold the freighter mantel, but its pretty much lost the passenger mantel to the A380 in the VLA market on ecomonics alone.

  9. Negative progress by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's worse than little - its negative progress. Five years ago if I was rich enough I could purchase a ticket on a craft, Concorde, capable of cruising at twice the speed of sound. Today there is no supersonic passenger aircraft in service. Since I understand that a vastly more efficient supersonic aircraft could be constructed today the problem seems to be one of being willing to take an economic risk rather than a lack of technical expertise.

    1. Re:Negative progress by Koreantoast · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There's no market for supersonic aircraft at this time. Boeing tested the market for one back at the beginning of this decade, and the response they got was lukewarm at best. Their decision to go with the 787 instead of the Sonic Cruiser is a reflection of shifting global needs: they don't want faster, they want more efficient. Besides, there were a ton of issues with supersonic aircraft on the environmental front, particularly with noise and emissions.

    2. Re:Negative progress by 0123456 · · Score: 2, Informative

      "The problem with supersonic passenger planes was that they could not fly at those speed over land"

      Concorde will quite happily fly at supersonic speed over land, absent NIMBYs pushing governments to prohibit such flights. It really doesn't care what's ten miles below it.

    3. Re:Negative progress by radtea · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Today there is no supersonic passenger aircraft in service.

      The economics of supersonic flight suck, although it wasn't apparent at the time.

      I've read accounts that suggest the 747's raised flight deck was designed that way because it was assumed the primary purpose of the aircraft would be cargo hauling, and they wanted access to the full diameter of the fuselage without hinging the nose, as is often done in cargo aircraft. The reason why cargo was targeted was because everyone believed that supersonics were going to own the passenger transport market "once a few bugs were worked out."

      It turns out those bugs--noise, engine sizing and fuel efficiency--are pretty difficult to work around, and cutting an five hour flight to two and a half hours isn't such a big deal when the time spent getting into and out of the airport are added in. It's more like cutting an eight hour experience to a five or six hour one. Not worth the price.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    4. Re:Negative progress by the_humeister · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What are you talking about? The Concorde was one of the biggest money losers for Air France and British Airways. Sure you can fly from New York to London really fast, but you're burning so much more fuel in the process.

      Right now, the name of the game is efficiency in terms of passengers and fuel. And fuel efficiency is going up.

    5. Re:Negative progress by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2, Informative

      Wrong, Concorde was one of British Airways most profitable aircraft after the airline underwent privitisation in the mid 1980s - the Government was simply operating the aircraft badly before that.

      Concorde being unprofitable is a major myth of the aircraft, and one that still dogs it to this day.

    6. Re:Negative progress by Bearhouse · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You are right, but only because the French and the Brit Govs wrote off the development costs.

      "Concorde flew regular transatlantic flights from London Heathrow (British Airways) and Paris Charles de Gaulle (Air France) to New York JFK and Washington Dulles, profitably flying these routes at record speeds, in less than half the time of other airliners."

      However:

      "With only 20 aircraft ultimately built, the costly development phase represented a substantial economic loss. Additionally, Air France and British Airways were subsidised by their governments to buy the aircraft.

      Wikipedia, of course, so it must be true.

    7. Re:Negative progress by WillAdams · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Moreover, the Concorde was cost-benefit-analysised at a time when jet fuel was in the tens of cents per gallon price range --- then the Arab fuel embargo hit and suddenly it was hard to justifiably profit on it (though for a long while they managed).

      Sadly the new tires were just being certified when the 9/11 terrorist attacks occurred which was pretty much the final nail in the coffin.

      William

      --
      Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
    8. Re:Negative progress by jellomizer · · Score: 2, Informative

      Having worked next to an airport (so close the watch tower called the Fire Station during the company BBQ). The sound really wasn't that bad. Usually the building would shake a little Like when a heavy constructions trucks parked next to your house, but only for about 3 seconds then it was back to normal. It is not like it was ear hurting, it was barely noticeable.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    9. Re:Negative progress by j-pimp · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You can say that again. The problem is the people living 10 miles below, and the noise they have to deal with.

      I really feel sorry for people living around airports today. We have noise pollution laws for everything but aircraft. The reason for this is the FAA, which has historically been more very receptive to air industry lobbying, and so more interested in promoting air travel than in limiting the consequences of air travel (a de-facto tax on those of us who have to listen to jets takeoff and land from 10s of miles away, night and day).

      I live 5 blocks away from JFK long term parking. Grew up my whole life there. Watched the concord fly over my head, not to mention a slew of standard aircraft countless times.

      It is worth the noise and stained lawn furniture to be able to wake up in the morning walk to the air train and get on a plane like its a commuter train. If you don't like it move.

      --
      --- Justin Dearing http://www.justaprogrammer.net/ We're just programmers.
    10. Re:Negative progress by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2, Informative
      Sure.

      It was said to have no commercial future, but in the twilight of its flying life Concorde has emerged as one of the biggest money-spinners for British Airways, earning the airline as much as £50m in the past six months. In Concordeâ(TM)s final week alone BA is thought to have made about £6m in profit as customers vied for the cachet of being on board one of the last scheduled flights to travel through the sound barrier. . .

      http://www.cronaca.com/archives/001605.html

      In March 1984 the government ended its involvement with Concorde when British Airways assumed full responsibility for Concorde support costs. British Airways Board paid GBP16.5 million to acquire the government's stock of spare parts and was released from the profit share scheme under which the government collected 80 per cent of Concorde operating surpluses.

      http://www.britishairways.com/concorde/faq.html

      How much profit did Concorde make for British Airways? On average Concorde made and operating profit of £30-50 Million a year for British Airways in the boom years where many passengers were travelling first class. British Airways reportedly received £1.75 Billion in revenue for Concorde services against an operating cost of around £1 Billion. Air France made a much smaller profit.

      http://www.concordesst.com/retire/faq_r.html

      If you want actual financial figures, BA detailed Concorde as a seperate operating centre in its financial reports up until Concorde was retired.

    11. Re:Negative progress by AeroIllini · · Score: 3, Insightful

      We have noise pollution laws for everything but aircraft.

      You have no idea what you are talking about. Ten seconds on Google would get you to Title 14, Part 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations, "Noise Standards: Aircraft Type and Certification". All airplanes built in the United States are certified to this standard. Europe (EASA) has very similar regulations, and most of the other national regulatory bodies in the world pattern their regulations off of the FAA/EASA regulations.

      That same FAA disregard for anything that might negatively impact total air passenger miles got us 9/11

      Wait, what? Are you seriously implying that 9/11 was the FAA's fault? Citation please.

      and continues to cause well documented health and mortality effects in areas around major airports.

      Please point me in the direction of some of these "well documented ... effects."

      Enlightened governments are re-locating their airports away from population centers and building fast and convenient light rail to make it convenient to get to them.

      Light rail is awesome, and has nothing to do with the FAA.

      Another thing government could be doing to balance the substantial subsidies air industries have enjoyed is divert some of those dollars to rail and R&D into quieter and more efficient aircraft.

      Ok, but your ticket prices will go up.

      Also, you asked for quieter and more efficient aircraft, so here you go.

      Airlines are still focused overwhelmingly on the next quarter and the FAA doesn't care.

      The FAA's job is not to make the airlines profitable. It's to make them safe.

      --
      For security, the MD5 hash of this message and sig is 09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0.
    12. Re:Negative progress by david.given · · Score: 2, Informative

      I live in Reading, UK, which was under the Concorde flight path, and when it went over it'd make the windows rattle.

      I'm not complaining, mind. I rather miss it now it's gone: twice a day, there'd be this throaty, world-filling roar --- not loud, but somehow intense --- and you'd look up and there would be that beautiful shape going overhead.

      I was deeply disappointed about the weaselly way the British ones were decommissioned; they drained the hydraulic fluid from the systems, more or less wrecking them. The French were a bit more respectful, but even so there are only a few models remaining in decent enough condition to even tour. A sad end, for what's generally known as the largest jet fighter in the world...

  10. We ran out of frontiers by DesScorp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Four decades ago:
    747 and concorde launched, first manned moon landing. 40 years later, NASA can barely keep the ISS running (or the shuttle from blowing up).

    During the jet age, it was all about higher performance. Higher speeds, higher altitudes, longer ranges, higher load capacities.

    Aviation has matured, and now it's only about one thing: better efficiency. Our planes carry no more people than they used to. They go no faster or farther. Cost efficiency is the last frontier of a stable, mature... but boring... industry.

    --
    Life is hard, and the world is cruel
  11. Re:A whole hour! by Binestar · · Score: 5, Funny

    Wow, a whole hour devoted to analysing the plane's stability at high speeds? If that is correct, I'm amazed the plane flew at all.

    It was a 1960's hour. You have to adjust for inflation and ADD in 2008, that's over a month in 2008 time.

    --
    Do you Gentoo!?
  12. Re:777 slimmer and faster than 747 by cpuh0g · · Score: 3, Informative

    747-400 still has slightly longer range than 777. The longest flights are still on 747s - Newark NJ -> Singapore (nonstop). Chicago - Hong Kong (nonstop), etc etc. I prefer the 777 because they have more modern amenities in coach like seatback entertainment systems instead of a single giant screen for the whole cabin like its 1981 or something. *SOME* airlines (NOT UNITED) have actually upgraded their economy class on the widebodies in the past 20 years.

  13. Luxury by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I remember flying from Washington D.C. to Washington state on a DC-10, around about 1990. The flight I was on had a grand total of 10 passengers in coach - the main purpose of the flight, according to a stewardess, was because they needed more planes on the west coast. I got an entire center row to myself - that's something like 6 or 7 seats. Since the arm rests flip up, I was able to stretch out and even lay down for most of the flight. They even had extra meals - I was a young guy back then, and quantity mattered more than quality.

    I think about that trip every now and then - usually when I'm crammed in coach nowadays with my knees pushing against the seat in front of me...

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  14. Re:Here is the ironic part... by tenchiken · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Actually, the A380 is selling fairly poorly. Because of the production problems their recovery number is probably up at around 700 frames. They are nowhere close to that number now. Worse, most of their orders are from Emirates, and with the collapse of the middle eastern economies (on average 40 percent down so far) these orders are not likely to be completely fulfilled.

  15. Inventor of the term "cattle class" by michaelmalak · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I believe it was my friend, Galen Stephenson, who invented the term "cattle class" in the early 1990's. We had both recently graduated (late 1980's) and entered the workforce and started traveling for our respective jobs. Except Galen is 6'8" and big and invented the term to get his employer to spring for business class for him.

    The earliest use on UseNet was 1990, and the earliest mention in the New York Times is 1999. So I'm fairly certain Galen was the first inventor.

  16. Outdated airline economics by Samschnooks · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Nevertheless, since that first flight, the 747 has fulfilled the faith of its designers and has led to reductions in air fares, opening up air travel to many in a way that was previously unimaginable

    The 747 was developed for the airline business before the Airline Deregulation Act signed into law by Jimmy Carter. Before that, it was profitable for the airlines to operate under the "hub and spoke" business model: condense a bunch of folks going to a certain destination at a hub and then send them all at once to said destination. Which worked at the time because because all the airlines had to follow Federal rules; which, by the way, the airlines really miss those Government regulations.

    Now, the way to be profitabile in the air ravel business is smaller fuel efficient aircraft with schedules more like trucks: Atlanta to Fort Lauderdale to Tampa to New Orleans to Atlanta again - for example. Not get a bunch of people to go to Fort Lauderdale from Atlanta and go back. My point? Big jets for anything other than long haul (Ocean crossings) are not worth it. The 380 is not going to have the market Airbus thought it would have.

    New York to San Francisco? Please. The airline that runs the most flights between those cities is going to get the lucrative business travellers; not the airline that has a slightly cheaper fare that runs once a day, at most. Those once a day airlines are going to get the tourist business and you know what those flights are going to be like for a 380: 2 hours to board because the tourists have to figure out where aisle '34' is and where seat 'H' is. And then they have to figure out where they're going to put their trunk that should be checked. Then they'll argue with the stewardess about how this is a carry on, while their little brat is screaming because they couldn't get their French Fries from McDonald's. Then the .....

    In the meantime, rich fat cat Wall street Banker Federal Welfare receiver has his own jet and just sails over to San Francisco. Then the SOB has the nerve to comment on how your suit is wrinkled and how your tired and absent minded. ....

  17. 747s have broken the sound barrier by tenchiken · · Score: 5, Interesting

    747s have broken the sound barrier on at least two occasions. One was during certification, and a second during a in-flight screw up on China Airlines 006. (Powered descent).

    Both airframes survived.

    1. Re:747s have broken the sound barrier by Mister+Whirly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Just because the frames survived breaking the sound barrier two times doesn't mean that they were designed to do so, or that it would be a good idea to do so again. Or, in other words, just because you CAN do something doesn't mean it is SAFE.

      --
      "But this one goes to 11!"
    2. Re:747s have broken the sound barrier by KingKiki217 · · Score: 3, Funny

      +1, relevant sig:
      "But this one goes to 11!"

    3. Re:747s have broken the sound barrier by Cyberax · · Score: 2, Informative

      Do you think they'll survive long if they do this several times each day?

    4. Re:747s have broken the sound barrier by georgewilliamherbert · · Score: 5, Informative

      The China Airlines 747 was severely damaged and nearly had to be scrapped. Not due to supersonic flight loads, but due to damage from the high-G pullout required to recover from the out of control power dive towards the ocean.

      Among other things the landing gear locks pulled out of their fuselage mounts and the gear extended partly during the dive pullout, damaging the gear and gear doors.

      The pullout encountered 5.1 and 4.8 G peaks, which exceed the normal structural limits, and the aircraft's wings were permanently bent upwards 2-3 inches.

      The horizontal tailfins also were partially shredded - see pictures and more incident data at:
          http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19850219-0

      Also NTSB report available at:
          http://www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de/publications/Incidents/DOCS/ComAndRep/ChinaAir/AAR8603.html

  18. Lokheed and Boeing by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 4, Informative
    Boeing 747's original design was to compete for the defense contract for the Strategic Air Command heavy cargo aircraft. Lockheed won the competition and got to build C5-J. Boeing lost the military contract but converted the design to civilian use and won the bigger market. What tipped the scale for Lockheed was that C5J had a low cargo floor and flip up nose that allowed it to deliver 60 ton tanks with its internal ramps. Boeing's low wing, high floor design needed infrastructure support to unload such cargo.

    With hindsight getting the civilian market was the bigger prize.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:Lokheed and Boeing by thedonger · · Score: 2, Interesting
      [from the summary]

      convincing people that the 747 would fly was a tough call

      Have you ever seen a C5 take off? It looks incomprehensibly slow as it lifts off the ground. I still watch large commercial and military jets with a sense of awe at what we achieved. Granted, it costs us a few hundred people every decade or two as one crashes...

      --
      Help fight poverty: Punch a poor person.
    2. Re:Lokheed and Boeing by smellsofbikes · · Score: 2, Interesting

      To add to your comments about the C5 -- it can actually partially retract the landing gear on the ground squat down to truckload height, as well as drop a ramp for drive-on loading.
      details here.
      Though they no longer have this capability, when they were first built they could caster the mainwheels up to 18 degrees for crosswind capability: the aircraft could take off at an 18 degree angle to the runway. That must've looked incredible. Castering mains was a big fad in the 1940's and many commercial aircraft had it, but the complexity and uncertain ground-handling characteristics (they tended to break loose when taxiing) meant that the C5 was the last major airframe to have them, and even it lost them when upgrading to the new (now! with less cracks!) wings used on the -B model.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
  19. Re:A whole hour! by tenchiken · · Score: 2, Informative

    Joe Sutter has written a awesome book on the 747. It really goes into how the plane was developed. It was kind of the black sheep at Boeing - everyone was focusing on the SST - the big brother of the Concorde.

    They spent a lot of time looking at the behavior of the plane well before manufacturing. These engineers have passed from the scene, and given how much both Boeing and Airbus have screwed the pooch with the A380 and 787, the engineers after them have not yet lived up to their mentors.

  20. Re:The 100 year career by Richard_at_work · · Score: 3, Informative

    The 747 was not the first double deck plane, there were several multiple deck aircraft before it - the Boeing 377 being an excellent example.

    And you really are doing many many engineers a great disservice...

  21. Re:777 slimmer and faster than 747 by GooberToo · · Score: 2, Informative

    Both of these planes are capable of much greater speeds, the limiting factor..... the sound barrier...and to limit air frame fatigue.

    That's certainly true. Citations are not certified for mach speeds but test pilots routinely take them right beyond the barrier, as an experimental flight, immediately before being certified. Remember, each plane is tested before delivery by a test pilot. This is true of all planes. In an accident it is pretty easy to exceed their Vmax speed, which is near the barrier, and they want to know for sure the plane will hold together before they place it in the hands of less experienced pilots.

    Certification speed should not be confused with what an airframe is capable of.

  22. Re:777 slimmer and faster than 747 by phosphorylate+this · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Maybe we shouldn't consider the airline at fault for not changing seat sizes rather than mainstream america (or UK, or Canada, or Australia) for changing ass sizes.

  23. TFA, kinda off base by Ancient_Hacker · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Just like your typical USA-Today article, long on human interest, real short on accuracy.

    (1) The Boeing 377 StratoCruiser was roomier, with sleeping berths and a bar on the lower level.

    (2) The 747 was not suggested by any airline president, but by the development of large high-bypass turbofan engines.

    (3) The 747 was not a success for many, many years. The early models had many delays and glitches and the airlines lost tons of money on each one for many years.

    (4) Putting your wife by the runway on a first-time takeoff might not be a show of affection.

  24. Re:777 slimmer and faster than 747 by cpuh0g · · Score: 2, Informative
    Good question.. JetBlue is nice, their seats are reasonably comfortable and they have live TV in all seats. I hear good things about Virgin America, but I have not flown them yet.

    AA, UA, NWA, USAir, Delta, Southwest - they all suck as far as economy class treatment goes. Shitty seats, dirty cabins, nickel-and-diming you for a bag of chips or box of shitty food. All of the major carriers are pretty bad. The smaller carriers do a slightly better job.

  25. Bad statistics by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Nope. Turns out it was a firetrap.

    ..and you base that on the statistics of one crash? That the one crash took it from being the world's safest aircraft to being one of the world's most dangerous. The conclusion that we can reach from this is that you cannot base safety on the statistics of one event.

  26. The chicken coop by operagost · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I don't mind the 747 "cattle car" so much as the vile 737 "chicken coop". Six abreast, one aisle, and no additional overhead space. I would rather travel across the country on a Greyhound; at least there is more legroom.

    --

    Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
  27. Re:The Standard by jeremyp · · Score: 2, Informative

    No it isn't, not remotely.

    The airframe is superficially similar but is probably made of advanced composites. It's also aerodynamically more efficient.

    The engines are now high bypass turbofans with increased efficiency and reliability and reduced noise.

    The avionics are unrecognisable compared with 40 years ago. Flight controls are electronic. The cockpit is a few CRTs instead of hundreds of mechanical dials. Navigation systems include GPS. The plane can now be flown by two people instead of three. Actually, technically, the aeroplane can be flown by the onboard computers. It doesn't need humans at all.

    In the cabin, the seats are.... well, the seats are the same - possibly worse, but even in cattle class, every seat has its own entertainment centre with on demand video and computer games.

    So modern airliners are all identical metal tubes with wings stuck on and engines stuck to the wings in turn, but when you think about it, that description fits the Douglas DC3 from the 1930's. Appearances are only skin deep.

    --
    All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
  28. Re:seat math.... by jrumney · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'd pay it in a heart beat.

    Of course, you'd have to ensure all airlines did it, or else no one would. So, let's require 40" seat pitch for all airlines.

    If you're so confident that other like minded people would pay it in a heart beat, then why would you have to ensure that all airlines did it?