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Hints of a Link Between Autism and Vinyl Flooring
SpuriousLogic sends in a link from Scientific American to a study by Swedish and US researchers that reaches the surprising conclusion that there may be a link between autism and vinyl floors. "Children who live in homes with vinyl floors, which can emit chemicals called phthalates, are more likely to have autism, according to research by Swedish and US scientists published Monday. ... The scientists were surprised by their finding, calling it 'far from conclusive.' ... The researchers found four environmental factors associated with autism: vinyl flooring, the mother's smoking, family economic problems, and condensation on windows, which indicates poor ventilation. Infants or toddlers who lived in bedrooms with vinyl, or PVC, floors were twice as likely to have autism five years later... than those with wood or linoleum flooring. ... Several scientists who did not participate in the study cautioned that it has too many limitations to draw conclusions, but they suggested that new studies be designed to look for a connection between autism and indoor air pollutants."
I have a friend with a large vinyl album collection. Some 5,000 vinyls!
Funny, I always thought he was a bit of an introvert. Now I know why. ;)
... someone says correlation is not causation?
'If Christ had tweeted the sermon on the mount, it might have lasted until nightfall.' - John Perry Barlow
April Fools! ... ...
this is why http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Registration,_Evaluation,_Authorisation_and_Restriction_of_ChemicalsREACH is so important. from wikipedia : "There were 100,106 chemicals in use in the EU in 1981, when the last survey was performed. Of these only 3,000 have been tested and over 800 are known to be carcinogenic, mutagenic or toxic to reproduction." So, only 3% of chemicals in use by man have been tested for environmental and health safety.
Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
doi:10.1016/j.neuro.2009.01.011
Malin Larssona, Bernard Weissb, Staffan Jansona, Jan Sundellc and Carl-Gustav Bornehag
Associations between indoor environmental factors and parental-reported autistic spectrum disorders in children 6-8 years of age
But did your study find that kids with autism were twice as likely to breathe air than kids without? No? Probably less statistically significant then.
If you're going to disprove an April Fool's story with statistics, at least make the statistics work.
I wonder if having a parental-reported autistic spectrum disorder is the same as actually having autism?
http://michaelsmith.id.au
How is this pre-empting them? All you have done is predict that people will say it, that isn't a counter argument, 'correlation is not causation' may be over-used and formulaic, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong.
What if Tetris was invented by Nazis?
Not too long ago I learned that phthalates were used as "softeners" in plastic containers. That's not a problem normally but if you put plastic boxes that aren't supposed to be recycled into your dishwasher to use them as a lunch-box then you have a problem since they weren't designed for such high temperatures and the phthalates are released. Same thing if you microwave it.
Boxes that are "microwave/dishwasher safe" don't have this problem naturally. This is generally printed on the container itself.
And phthalates aren't good for you. Even if you're an adult.
You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. -- Harlan Ellison
Male babies are more likely to be autistic than female babies.
An already well verified statistic, go google it before getting in a lather about that bit.
Low income. Increases the likelihood of smoking, vinyl flooring, poorly ventilated housing and... oh look, it's right there in the list: "family economic problems".
Meta will eat itself
http://xkcd.com/552/
So how do you study carcinogenicity: Simple. You feed a couple of rodents that you don't particularly like 5% of their bodyweight of a certain stuff each day, and see how many of them develop cancer within their short lifespans. Now comes the fun part: You extrapolate the 5% bodyweight daily ratio to 1 ppm bodyweight daily ratio, and similary divide the rate of mammal acquiring cancer. Voila, a new PhD promotion based on the completely meritless assumption that there is any kind of linearity involved in these rates.
I know a lot of current research is not so stupid, but most of the 1970's cancer scares were based pretty much on the scenario I just described.
Determining whether or not a compound is carcinogenic in humans is extremely hard, except for the really bad ones.
"correlation is not causation" ... and i'm not joking, we really need to get everyone in the world finally past this stumbling block.
... because they will find (if they bother to study it) that most Autistic people will (on average) enjoy spending longer looking at the sea waves with their every changing details and changing specular highlights as they break and merge combined with the complex yet rhythmic sounds of the waves breaking on the beach etc..
Its very unfortunate that everyone in the world doesn't know the difference. It would solve so many problems in the world, if everyone was forced to learn the difference throughout school and in everyday adult life. Everyone would find life so much better as so many arguments would be avoided and things would get fixed quicker. The people behind funding education in science need to focus a vast amount of time, money and effort into promoting understanding in this simple yet vital bit of education. (I would go as far as to say we need a day per year to remind everyone, like a "world correlation is not causation day!"
"autism AND vinyl flooring."
It could also simply be for example, (on average) more autistic people prefer and enjoy the look, patterning, practical ease of use, feel and/or smell of vinyl flooring. Its like saying, which comes first, Autism or Vinyl flooring.
They could just as easily say looking at the sea causes Autism
There are 10 kinds of people in the world... those who understand binary and those who don't.
But there are some things you just shouldn't do on April Fool's Day, and one of them is encouraging parents of autistic children desperate to blame something for their children's condition. I mean, come on; this is a group that thinks vaccines can cause autism; they'll swallow this one hook, line, and sinker.
What? Male sex?
Well, I guess we know whats on your mind... think adjective, not verb. That disease is much more common in boys than girls.
What is "autistic spectrum"?
The symptoms range from pretty freaking minor to pretty awful. Despite there being no firm obvious medically detectable difference between diseases, and also that it is always possible to find a patient right in the middle of two precisely defined "definitions" the medical community overall prefers to label different degrees of one disease as entirely separate diseases, and a semi-passive aggressive way to make fun of that is to refer to "the autistic spectrum". Not all doctors agree, and many of them also use terms like "autistic spectrum".
Can parents report autistic behavior accurately?
Guess you didn't read the article, since it explained that 72 parents told them they had a diagnosis, then the surveyors checked up on ten of them by talking to their doctors, and the story from the parents matched the doctors story. Ten out of ten told the truth, so probably, at least 90% of the 72 did accurately report a positive diagnosis. There are also some notes in the article about how they had to follow the swedish rules for medical reporting with regards to finding that info, no idea what that requires. There are some diseases that people lie about, most commonly the level of obesity, also there are mental health problems that inherently involve lying, but lying about a positive autism diagnosis is apparently not an issue, at least in Sweden. Doesn't look like they checked up on people whom claimed negative but perhaps their doctors might say positive, so its not exactly a perfect study, but not too bad.
Was whoever wrote the article or placed the article in Scientific American paid to sensationalize the story?
Dude don't know if you've read SciAm over a long period, but over decades its gone from a somewhat light version of Science or Nature toward something that I feel is the "weekly world news" or "national enquirer" of the science journalism world. Also page count has gone from small town phone book to mid double digits at best. Its a shame the editors ran it into the ground and stomped on the corpse... if they had not, I'd still be a subscriber. In fact, if they had not run it into the ground, I'd be glad to pay twice the subscription fee. So, in summary, uh, yeah, it might be just slightly sensationalized.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
I wonder if having a parental-reported autistic spectrum disorder is the same as actually having autism?
According to the article, they talked to the kids doctors for 10 of the 72 positive reports, and the doctors agreed. So at least or around 90% of the time, and assuming the doctor is telling the truth, and assuming you live in Sweden, I'd say the answer is "yes".
Think of all the parental claims you've ever heard that are ridiculous "I don't know what he does in school, but he's a perfect little angel at home" or "my kid would never do drugs" or the ever popular, "but she's never even kissed a boy". Apparently although some parents (admittedly, mostly of teenagers) clearly live in an alternate universe, the researchers verified that's not the case w/ regards to parents of autistic kids.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
This is not an april fools:
- It was posted on SCiAM on 31 march
- This isn't remotely a subject that SCiAM would make fun of (a more likely example would be an article claiming irrefutable evidence for intelligent design)
- Falling for this, if it were a joke, wouldn't result in a minor embarrassment to be laughed at
- Someone already posted links to the scientific articles:
http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1182839&cid=27413449
Slashdot would, but Scientific American wouldnt
If it IS vinyl flooring, it isn't from the kid, it's from pregnant mom, I think. Although we didn't have vinyl floors (and because of insurance screw-ups, didn't get my son properly vaccinated well until after he was full blown autistic), I was exposed to a lot of toxins (airborne) during my pregnancy. But the interesting thing is, in retrospect, he had signs of autism almost immediately after birth. Part of autism (which he has to the point where he cannot speak, and most likely will never live independently) can be sensory problems, and his are oral/eating related. He would not breastfeed. He would not take food from a bottle. He could not leave the hospital for two weeks because of this. Even when he got home, formula or breastmilk would pour down his face as much as it would pour into his mouth. I've spoken to other parents who saw signs, small ones, very very early on. Yes, my kid did have a bit of that 'developing ok and then all of a sudden went backwards' stuff, but he was already a bit off, I think. And he still does that today -- over the summer, without school, he lost the ability to communicate completely. It's just that parents seem to notice that first change. So vinyl floors? A bit of a reach. Something happening during pregnancy? A possibility. Toxins? A possibility. But my wood floors didn't 'save' my son.
The short answer is, yes. Autism isn't a single classification, but in fact a wider band of classifications that produce similar behaviors and symptoms. Asperger's is on one end of a "autistic spectrum," but those with it are typically high-functioning and integrated into society. Others inflicted with more serious forms of autism aren't so readily integrated, and are oftentimes better cared for in a controlled setting. So "autism," as we typically refer to it in common terms, is really a range of related conditions, and without that next level of understanding of physiological or developmental causes of the condition there can't be much more specificity given.
---- Please be nice in case my Slashdot karma ~= my real life karma.
The article seems serious. Weird, but serious. All the citations and names check out.
Best Slashdot Co
Note that just because correlation is not causation, doesn't mean that correlation is not important...
You know you are replying to a comment with the bloody doi link right? You don't even have to read the paper, it's in the abstract.
Abstract
Potential contributions of environmental chemicals and conditions to the etiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders are the subject of considerable current research and speculation. The present paper describes the results of a study undertaken as part of a larger project devoted to the connection between properties of the indoor environment and asthma and allergy in young Swedish children. The larger project, The Dampness in Buildings and Health (DBH) Study, began in the year 2000 with a questionnaire distributed to parents of all children 1â"6 years of age in one Swedish county (DBH-I). A second, follow-up questionnaire (DBH-III) was distributed in 2005. The original survey collected information about the child, the family situation, practices such as smoking, allergic symptoms, type of residence, moisture-related problems, and type of flooring material, which included polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The 2005 survey, based on the same children, now 6â"8 years of age, also asked if, during the intervening period, the child had been diagnosed with Autism, Asperger's syndrome, or Tourette's syndrome. From a total of 4779 eligible children, 72 (60 boys, 12 girls) were identified with parentally reported autism spectrum disorder. A random sample of 10 such families confirmed that the diagnoses had been made by medical professionals, in accordance with the Swedish system for monitoring children's health. An analysis of the associations between indoor environmental variables in 2000 as well as other background factors and the ASD diagnosis indicated five statistically significant variables: (1) maternal smoking; (2) male sex; (3) economic problems in the family; (4) condensation on windows, a proxy for low ventilation rate in the home; (5) PVC flooring, especially in the parentsâ(TM) bedroom. In addition, airway symptoms of wheezing and physician-diagnosed asthma in the baseline investigation (2000) were associated with ASD 5 years later. Results from the second phase of the DBH-study (DBH-II) indicate PVC flooring to be one important source of airborne phthalates indoors, and that asthma and allergy prevalence are associated with phthalate concentrations in settled dust in the children's bedroom. Because these associations are among the few linking ASD with environmental variables, they warrant further and more extensive exploration.
"Knowledge is the only instrument of production that is not subject to diminishing returns" -Journal of Political Econom
..0.. -1..-2...-3...-4..-5..... I think you're wrong dude.
To have any effect, the vinyl plastic must degrade somehow
PVC *does* degrade, all by itself. Pure PVC is very brittle (like your PVC drain pipes), so any flexible PVC product has lots of plasticizers mixed in. Some of these are volatile and gradually evaporate out of the plastic at room temperature. It's the plasticizers that are under suspicion here.
However, I would imagine that most babies and toddlers are exposed to more PVC emmisions from the vynyl mattress covers in their cribs and beds. After all, they spend half of each day with their heads a couple inches away from the mattresses. These things are extremely stinky when new, and over the course of a year or so they seem to lose much of their plasticizers into the air and become brittle (and no longer stinky). Unfortunately, at that point they often shred into ribbons and must be replaced.
IMO, given the safety questions that have recently come up regarding the phthalate plasticizers used in PVC products, it's probably worth the extra cost of buying polyethelene mattress covers for kids.
(1) Does the article or summary assert causation at any point? No, they don't. Therefore, "correlationisnotcausation" is an entirely irrelevant response here.
(2) Is correlation the strongest possible result from research like this? Yes, it is. To demonstrate causation you'd need a designed experiement, with babies raised for years in a controlled environment with vinyl to see how many became autistic; experiments like that are not possible.
(3) As another poster said, "correlationisnotcausation" has become Slashdot shorthand for "I choose to ignore all of your scientific evidence". Compare to: "Evolution has not been proved, it's only a theory."
We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
Condensation on windows is not a sign of a poorly ventilated house. Condensation forms when humid air comes in contact with a much cooler surface. So, for example, if you have no storm windows on your windows but you are running a humidifier you will get condensation in the winter.
Vinyl windows will actually reduce condensation because they are like built-in storm windows. The inner pane isn't as cold as a single pane of glass -- yet vinyl windows also reduce airflow, meaning that ventilation is reduced.
That part of the study just doesn't make sense.
One though I have heard mentioned occasionally - autism, parkinsons, diabetes, even heart disease are all caused by diseases. Brain rot eats your flesh!
Basically, if there is no direct link to a specific biological anomaly - like Huntingdon's where a specific genetic problem means EVERYONE with the gene gets the disease at the certain time - then it's a disease. Diseases pop up randomly. They unpredictably flare up and attack people. The same sort of thing happens with syphillis (brain rot late in life) or polio (post-polio syndrome - nerve rot, later in life). While stress or other factors can cause for example, an outbreak of herpes or cold sores (Herpes 1) the timing and predictability is random. Maybe even cancers - after all, HPV is blamed for most cervical cancer.
Similarly with childhood diabetes; it pops up randomly in children - one day they're fine, the next they have to pee like a racehorse and something inflames their pancreas. based on the situation of Michael Fox - a cluster of 5 or 6 people who worked in the same studio in Vancouver ended up with early onset Parkinsons? Also consider the earliest stem cell research - injections helped some people for a while, but then they regressed; almost as if the stem cells tried to replace what was missing, but then were attacked in turn by the same agent. It's almost like the brain has plenty of spare capacity until something slowly destroys so much that nothing spare is left to compensate and the person suddenly starts going downhill.
Even heart disease - there's still a disagreement if there is any correlation with cholesterol. Perhaps simple small inflamations give the arterial clots somewhere to latch onto and start building obstructions. Installing stents can open the artery, but the clots just grow back over if the artery still has the same problem.
We see the same symptoms with autism - fine for a while, then suddenly -poof! All is lost. Is it a disease? Something attacks a cerain area of the brain, building damage until suddenly there is nothing to compensate for the missing function? A form of brian rot which randomly strikes at-risk children like measles or chicken pox, but with far stronger results and less obvious communicability? perhaps Aspergers is just a later or less destructive form of the infection?
Remember until the 1990's, stomach ulcers were stress-induced symptoms of character problems, the sign of an obsessive worry-wart? Then they discovered that, oh, these are simple infections that an antibiotic can cure, the perceived character flaw was the result of the pain the ulcer caused?
There's a reason I wrapped my kid's mattress in impermeable plastic. You know, the stuff they seal houses with. Figured it was worth $20 and half an hour to have a bit of peace of mind while he was sleeping... they've also found that wrapping those mattresses in New Zealand has drastically cut the incidence of SIDS.
My blog. Good stuff (when I remember to update it). Read it.