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French Fusion Experiment Delayed Until 2025 or Beyond

An anonymous reader writes "The old joke is that fusion is the power of the future and always will be. But it's not looking so funny for ITER, an EU10 billion fusion experiment in France. According to Nature News, ITER will not conduct energy-producing experiments until at least 2025 — five years later than what had been previously agreed to. The article adds that the reactor will cost even more than the seven parties in the project first thought:'...Construction costs are likely to double from the 5-billion (US$7-billion) estimate provided by the project in 2006, as a result of rises in the price of raw materials, gaps in the original design, and an unanticipated increase in staffing to manage procurement. The cost of ITER's operations phase, another 5 billion over 20 years, may also rise.'"

272 comments

  1. Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We need fusion energy desperately...

    1. Re:Baah by GravityStar · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, we don't. We need fusion energy eventually. Fission energy is able to sustain our energy needs for the next couple of thousand years. We're just using it wrong due to concerns for nuclear weapons proliferation.

    2. Re:Baah by corsec67 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Or we could have giant hemp farms to harvest fusion power from the nearest star, and then burn that in a hemp/steam power plant.

      Bonus oil for biodiesel.

      Currently easily feasible, no need to invent stuff that might not work.

      --
      If I have nothing to hide, don't search me
    3. Re:Baah by craklyn · · Score: 5, Funny

      Or we could have giant hemp farms to harvest fusion power from the nearest star, and then burn that in a hemp/steam power plant.

      And best of all, there would be no "not in my backyard" syndrom. However, have we factored in the tax-funded muchies subsidy? That may be nontrivial.

    4. Re:Baah by umghhh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That statement about profitability is most likely wrong. Not because the whole operation is profitable but because the subsidy is indirect. At least in Europe it seems to be - the costs of nuclear waste disposal and especially transport of said waste include costs of massive security operations. The problem is also with left overs after the power plant stops active operation. One must not forget also all the costs associated with preparations for the worst case scenario (this of course is partially offset by the fact that you have to prepare yourself for attack by nuclear armed nutcases of any sort). Just to avoid misunderstanding - I am not against fission or fusion reactors and research done to make them work but I do not think that current policies to subsidize the operations in a rather hidden way are no good.

    5. Re:Baah by Mr2cents · · Score: 5, Interesting

      You should search for "Thorium fluoride" in the googletechtalks channel on youtube. There are at least two talks covering the subject, it really made me reconsider the nuclear option. In short, nuclear fission plants were *designed* to produce plutonium. It's actually an advantage when you're in a cold war race. But does it need to? Using molten salts, it is possible to let the nuclear reactions happen in a fluid, making really interesting cycles a possibility. And you wouldn't need to mine uranium any more.

      --
      "It's too bad that stupidity isn't painful." - Anton LaVey
    6. Re:Baah by smchris · · Score: 4, Interesting

      According to a BBC Horizon show, you are very wrong. We desperately need fusion.

      Say equality is a force in world peace. Say you want Americans to cut their consumption in half through conservation and allow everyone in the world to have that lower standard by something like 2020 (global warming and all). The fission plant per WEEK built and the acreage of solar, wind and bio per DAY built would be astronomical.

      In my opinion, that is why Obama is allowing Big Coal to continue topping mountains. Nobody wants to be honest about how demand outstrips probable clean supply.

    7. Re:Baah by Jurily · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And bear in mind, that no nuclear fission power station turns a profit. Not one.

      How about this one?

    8. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because of course most of the arable land on the planet isn't currently needed to feed people. And even the current minuscule production of biofuels hasn't caused price hikes in food products that have left people starving to death.
      No, putting heavy industry into competition with people for arable land is a great idea that can bring nothing but good....

    9. Re:Baah by distantbody · · Score: 5, Informative

      A good website about thorium fluoride reactors: Energy from Thorium

      Another good (informative and technical) general nuclear website: Nuclear Energy Institute (a.k.a. lobby) Nuclear Notes

    10. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      PWRs weren't designed to produce Pu (they do, but so does any reactor containing U-238).

      The thorium-cycle thermal breeder is an interesting idea (and the molten salt reactor isn't the only way of doing it), but has traditionally lost out to the U-Pu cycle fast breeder. However, neither is exactly widespread because uranium is just so cheap and abundant right now that using it inefficiently in a PWR doesn't really matter.

    11. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      solar panels in the Sahara desert. when we learn to make them without all that rare stuff.

    12. Re:Baah by Fred_A · · Score: 1

      And best of all, there would be no "not in my backyard" syndrome.

      Sure. Except our star actually *is* in our backyard. And if you think that its nuclear reactions have no incidence on our health, well... think again.

      Bottom line : don't stand in front of a nuclear reaction without protection unless you actually understand what you're doing. And even then, lots of people *thought* they knew what they were doing (that's "thought" because they're no longer around). And Being in the sun all day certainly counts as standing in front of a nuclear reactor.

      --

      May contain traces of nut.
      Made from the freshest electrons.
    13. Re:Baah by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      That statement about profitability is most likely wrong.

      Italics mine.

      And I bet you don't know what you're talking about. Probably.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    14. Re:Baah by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      We don't need to do it in the Sahara. We've got solar power plants already online that put out as much electricity as small to medium nuke plants. And the fuel costs nothing. And the fuel doesn't have to be buried under rock where there's no people around. And the fuel doesn't have to be trucked through 14 states on the way there.

      You could say that the fuel lasts a really long time, but at least it's 91.40 million miles away (at perihelion).

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    15. Re:Baah by KeithJM · · Score: 1

      Sure. Except our star actually *is* in our backyard.

      yes, but I think the parent was talking about the hemp, which would literally be in people's back yards. he was implying people would prefer hemp (or its relatives) growing in their back yard to nuclear power plants in their back yards.

    16. Re:Baah by Poorcku · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      equality? other than equality under the law, I don't care much about it. other types of equality make me afraid actually; i was born in a country where everyone was equal...but some were more equal than others.

      --
      I take my children to see Madonna(..), but I never for once ever thought I was in the same business.Chris Rea.
    17. Re:Baah by AtomicJake · · Score: 1

      Why is this post modded "troll"?
      The poster should maybe back some of his claims, but afaik this should be possible.

    18. Re:Baah by x2A · · Score: 1
      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    19. Re:Baah by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

      Because of course most of the arable land on the planet isn't currently needed to feed people. And even the current minuscule production of biofuels hasn't caused price hikes in food products that have left people starving to death.

      If you hadn't been paying attention in the last couple of years there have been tremendous food shortages throughout the world (leading to numerous food riots) mostly caused by loss of food production due to the spread of the fungus UG99 http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726474.400-killer-wheat-fungus-threatens-starvation-for-millions.html do we really want to produce even less food just so you can pump even more CO2 into the atmosphere???

      As for Fission vs Fusion fusion is the very clean option fission is more geared to producing weapons grade plutonium and produces an awful lot of nuclear waste. Fusion on the other hand is extremely clean in comparison the only waste will be the reaction chamber when it is decommissioned.

      For those who are interested you can build a fusion reactor in your garage http://www.brian-mcdermott.com/fusion_is_easy.htm

      Cheers

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    20. Re:Baah by x2A · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That was a good prog... shockingly mentioning that we spend more per year on mobile ringtones than we do on fusion research.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    21. Re:Baah by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

      the big problem however with nuclear is not that there are safety concerns with normal operations. There is little doubt reactors are fairly safe now. But the big concern is an accident in the handling of the waste. Murphys law, indicates that if something can happen, it will. In nuclear power there are too many things that can go wrong, too many mistakes and places accidents can be made. Nuclear power really approaches anything near a level of safety in the presence of a very strong independant regulatory regime, not present in all countries and constantly in tenous in the USA due to conservativism. even then an accident cant be devastating. Its just like accidently dropping some coal in a coal plant. If you see the birth defects and diseases caused by just a minuscule amount of radioactivity, you think twice. There are a million things that could go wrong that this could end up in surface water and ground water, etc. Plus there is storage which there is NO vaible solution for safely storing waste for a few billion years. Any storage container can be eroded down just like entire mountain ranges dissappear in that time frame.

    22. Re:Baah by orzetto · · Score: 1

      The Paks power plant was built over 20 years by the People's Republic of Hungary. This means it was built with the Hungarian people's taxes. It's easy to turn a profit when someone else is footing your capital-cost bills, which are especially high for nuclear power plants.

      The GP's point was that no nuclear power plant has ever paid for itself, proof of which is that no private entity has ever built, run and made money out of a nuclear plant without substantial subsidies, be it in the form of participation to capital costs, tax breaks, or socialisation of accident risks (as in the US).

      Feel free to produce a counterexample. In the meantime, check out "Will Nuclear Power Pay for itself?", by Jeffrey Paine, The Social Science Journal 33(4), 459-473, 1996; that's a peer-reviewed scientific journal. From the abstract: "[...] even under the most optimistic conditions [...] the current generation of the nuclear option over its lifetime may be best be economically marginal."

      --
      Victims of 9/11: <3000. Traffic in the US: >30,000/y
    23. Re:Baah by rbrausse · · Score: 1

      this is imo not a valid argument.

      most of the amortised nuclear power plants have a profit of around 200 to 300 million EUR per year.

      but - I found no good sources for the hidden costs: development of the technology, waste treatment, maybe more cancer cases around the plant (okay, this is not a valid point either as the correlation nuclear plant and more cancer in the region was never proven), deconstruction after closing, etc

      take my words with a grain of salt, my comment is only a first shot without any substantial data to support my opinion...

    24. Re:Baah by GameMaster · · Score: 1

      "The GP's point was that no nuclear power plant has ever paid for itself, proof of which is that no private entity has ever built, run and made money out of a nuclear plant without substantial subsidies, be it in the form of participation to capital costs, tax breaks, or socialisation of accident risks [wikipedia.org] (as in the US)."

      Sorry, that's not proof of anything. Even large companies have a hard time justifying large, new, projects if the up-front cost is extremely high. Also, profitability has nothing to do with whether or not a company lobbies the government for subsidies. The journal article you posted, however, does seem like a decent source though one study isn't, necessarily, incontrovertible proof.

      --

      Rules of Conduct:
      #1 - The DM is always right.
      #2 - If the DM is wrong, see rule #1
    25. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      a turbine requires a lot of manteinance.

    26. Re:Baah by Jurily · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This means it was built with the Hungarian people's taxes. It's easy to turn a profit when someone else is footing your capital-cost bills, which are especially high for nuclear power plants.

      Don't forget that Hungary would be much worse off if we had to provide that 44% of electricity we use, from other sources. There's a reason we built it in the first place.

      And don't tell me it's impossible to come up with a more cost-effective solution than 70's era soviet technology.

    27. Re:Baah by SleepingWaterBear · · Score: 1

      No we don't. We need space based solar power eventually. Fusion power would be nice, but space based solar power is the real long term solution. Ultimately almost all power we use comes from the Sun (well, or long dead distant stars in the case of fission), and it just makes sense to get at it directly. Unlike Fusion there are no show stopping technical problems with solar power, it looks quite likely to be to be cost effective, and the amount of power available is, for all current practical purposes, unlimited.

      In particular if we were able to set up off-world manufacturing plants for the satellites, ideally on the moon, it should be possible to get essentially unlimited cheap power this way, and this technology may not be so far away.

    28. Re:Baah by x2A · · Score: 1

      That's the same with whatever's powering the turbine though. Using solar heated water rather than coal or oil etc makes for much cleaner energy.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    29. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go to hell. You know nothing about radioactivity and storage of waste, and you obviously don't care to learn, Mr. Greenpeace. Coal produces about as much radioactive waste (due to thorium present in the coal itself), and it just gets spewed into the atmosphere so we can all breathe it. What the hell kind of accidents are you envisioning? We've already worked out ways to prevent them. You're more likely to see a dam burst or a turbine tear itself apart than any kind of nuclear accident today. "Miniscule" amounts of radioactivity? You mean like the amount that you receive from natural background radiation, both external (cosmic rays, thorium in the dirt, etc) and internal (carbon 14 and potassium 40)? Trust me, you're much better off worrying about things like driving or drinking than about radiation dose. They have immensely higher mortality rates and happen all the time. Even a major nuclear accident like Chernobyl killed fewer people than die in about 2 years in cars in the US alone. Chernobyl can't happen again, because we know how to design reactors now. The next worst nuclear accidents killed only operators and caused an estimated 1 additional cancer per event. More people die due to conflicts over oil than will ever die due to nuclear accidents. About the waste: As I said, coal produces comparable radioactive waste, but the waste from reactors is 100% containable. It can even be reprocessed on site and reused as fuel again. http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/rev26-34/text/colmain.html http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf06.html --- Take a look at the table at the very bottom, which estimates deaths per unit energy produced by various methods. Nuclear comes out very favorably. We need nuclear power, and uninformed buffoons like you should be shot.

    30. Re:Baah by Fred_A · · Score: 1

      he was implying people would prefer hemp (or its relatives) growing in their back yard to nuclear power plants in their back yards.

      Oh.
      My bad. Well, I'm sure I'd rather have something I could weave carpets from growing in my back yard. OTOH of course, if 40m high chimneys/evaporators suddenly sprouted in my backyard, I'd probably spot it, unless I was already growing something silly and making use of it...

      Now don't take this wrong, all of my vegetables are organic (although we call them "bio" this side of the channel, which is at least as silly as "organic, so don't start). So it's not like I'm making fun of the organic people. Or at least not of the *normal* organic people. And I'm quite a tree hugger as well. It's just that... well, read on if you made it this far.

      Nuclear power has quite a number of good things going for it as well as some bad things (ooh, spent fuel takes a while to cool, I wonder how long it takes for natural concentrated fuel, and yes, there's quite a bit of it... how unnatural). A lot of "green" militants see the world in black and white. But ask one of them how a solar panel is manufactured, how much water is dirtied, how much energy is used, how much carbon (including the shipping of the raw materials) and he won't have a clue. But it's still "renewable" energy. Which it is. Sure. Or will be, when we'll optimize it. Which we will.

      But the real world still is shades of grey.
      I could bring you to a place in the Pyrenees (the mountains between France and Spain) that has enough natural radio activity that you wouldn't last the night. Hey, it's natural, it can't be bad, right ?

      Lots of "green people probably use "natural" plant remedies (which is pretty much what you'll find in any pill, minus the assorted other chemicals the plant has). How many molecules are in a plant beyond the couple they need ? 100 ? 1000 ? 100 000 ? Probably the latter. A plant is the descendant of one of the very first life forms to set foot (root ?) on Earth. A plant has had 3 billion years to evolve its chemistry. You and your kin have had maybe 800 million years... And you still believe you can beat a plant at its game by eating it ? That you're better than it with your silly body chemistry with no lab to back you up ?
      What are you ? Some kind of suicidal back to earther ? Why do you think we extracted the useful bit out of plants *while leaving the rest out* ? Which by the way is what chemistry is all about ? What do you think a chemical compound is ? What is the difference between the carbon atom in that "chemical" molecule and the one in that "organic" compound ? What if they're the same molecule ?
      If you get a sample of two similar molecules, one extracted from an "organic" source, the other synthesized, will there be a difference ? What if there's a guarantee that all the *atoms* are from organic sources ?

      And so does a whole industry spawn, targeted at people who don't understand the first thing about chemistry (which is kind of puzzling given the way school is organized, at least in Europe, but they prosper here nevertheless).
      So when you go to school and say, "bah, chemistry, I'll never use this IRL". Think again.

      This is also true for physics ("stick on device protects you against radiation from your cell phone") or pretty much any topic. Sounds weird, I know, but crooks are counting on you to fail.

      --

      May contain traces of nut.
      Made from the freshest electrons.
    31. Re:Baah by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > PWRs weren't designed to produce Pu

      No, but they were designed FROM reactors that did so (the RBMK being the cannonical example). If we did not have an arms race that required the large-scale production of Pu, then we would have had any number of different paths to take. As others have pointed out, the thorium path has numerous advantages.

      Basically if we set out from the start to make civilian nuclear energy, we wouldn't have started with U.

      Maury

    32. Re:Baah by ground.zero.612 · · Score: 0

      Fire bad! Mmmkay?

      --
      "Be prepared, son. That's my motto. Be prepared." --Joe Hallenbeck
    33. Re:Baah by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > a turbine requires a lot of manteinance.

      They absolutely do NOT. Turbines are probably the most reliable devices ever invented, in terms of energy handling to maintenance required.

      There are jet engines that run for 10,000 hours before needing *routine* maintenance, but generate the power equivalent to hundreds of car engines. 10,000 hours is the equivalent of 600,000 miles at cruising. The total maintenance load of hundreds of engines over 600,000 miles is enormous.

      Maury

    34. Re:Baah by Jurily · · Score: 2, Informative

      I found no good sources for the hidden costs

      For Paks, there is a big one: it was built to benefit the people and the state-owned industry, not investors, and their prices were controlled accordingly. Had it been a private enterprise, it would have paid off big time by now.

      In a broader sense, it has paid off, with cheaper products from the also state-owned factories, and a higher standard of living for an entire country (it was built in a big push to get electricity everywhere). I think that's worth more than some numbers reported yearly.

    35. Re:Baah by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2, Informative

      > The fission plant per WEEK built and the acreage of solar, wind and bio per DAY built would be astronomical

      To produce ALL the power used in the US now, including all electricity, heating and transportation energy use, requires a patch of solar panels in the southwest desert about 170,000 km^2 assuming 8% efficiency (which is low). That's about the same as the paved area of the USA (160,000 km^2), and about 1/3rd of the desert area.

      Assuming the average road lasts 20 years before it needs re-paving (which seems very low to this Torontonian), 5% of the existing road surface has to be replaced every year. Solar panels also have a 20 year life span, or at least they'll be producing 85% power at that point. So the total effort needed to build and maintain ALL of the power in the USA using existing solar technology is the same amount of effort it that we are already using to maintain the road system.

      It's big, but not "astronomical".

      Maury

    36. Re:Baah by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And don't tell me it's impossible to come up with a more cost-effective solution than 70's era soviet technology.

      Given that most of the cost of nuclear power comes from the extreme safety measures built into the designs, and that 70's era Soviet projects heavily cut corners on those same safety measures, it very well just might be impossible.

    37. Re:Baah by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      Coal produces about as much radioactive waste (due to thorium present in the coal itself), and it just gets spewed into the atmosphere so we can all breathe it.

      False. You have zero credibility.

      You're probably rehashing something you heard about coal plants releasing more radiation than is typically released by nuclear plants into the environment during *normal* operations. People aren't worried about normal operations: they're worried about abnormal events.

    38. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It seems anytime you're working with molten salts in a fission reactor, you're dealing with a buffer to cause an intermediary that has a short half life.

      Which is useful, but unnecessary. There are reactor designs where the core is designed to breed and burn through the fuel at the same time.

      There are also closed cycle solid fuel reactor designs.

      Know why they aren't being explored or used more often? Thank the Dems, who in the late 90s, killed research bills, due to proliferation concerns--except the research was to allow for nuclear power plants that reduced weapons grade material. Of course, you went after Bush for being unscientific and backwards with stem cell research... ...meaning some would conclude that the whole "green" movement is a political movement to get certain people and parties elected, or for business investment in green technology to make people rich, not to solve the problems.

      Fact is, people in general don't want fusion power. Their political (and often social) oomph would be washed down the drain.

    39. Re:Baah by EvilBudMan · · Score: 1

      --We're just using it wrong due to concerns for nuclear weapons proliferation.--

        Very true and at this point it shouldn't be a concern. That line of thinking hasn't slowed down nuclear proliferation one bit. You could reprocess the stuff until it is only radio active for maybe 100 years. That can make waste disposal easier to deal with as well.

      Fusion is even better though but no one wants to spend the money to scale it up to where it might work. It might take 100 billion or more really to get that. If we went at that problem like we were in a war, it would get solved just like the atomic bomb. Really we are in a race against time. We have to get enough power that is clean and fast. The only reason that there is not a net output yet is just a matter of scale, but fusion has to be scaled up even beyond ITER. Maybe they should just go ahead and build a bigger one no matter what the cost.

    40. Re:Baah by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

      Actually, there is a risk of an accidental leak or spill of radioactive materials which is always present. The amount of radioactivity by coal is minor compared to this, and in fact USA coal technologies are using filters to reduce emissions. But I will not say coal is safe. Your argument is fallacious because you are trying to distract the argument away from the risks of nuclear, by saying coal is dirty. Coal is in fact very dirty of a fuel. This does NOT mean that nuclear is not dirty and does not present grave threats. With a nuke plant we are dealing with high concentrations of radioactive waste, that even in a small quantities is lethal. If you have a leaking container a significant amount of radioactivity could leak, enough to cause major health problems, birth defects, cancer, etc. This idea that Nuclear is safe is propoganda fed to you by the nuclear industry. In fact, it is a dangerous technology and there is just too many places something could go wrong. Even a small accident can kill thousands of people and make a place unliveable for millions of years. You dont need a meltdown for this, just an accidental spill of radioactive waste.

    41. Re:Baah by SBrach · · Score: 2, Informative

      Then why, with most of my energy coming from a nuclear power plant, do I pay the lowest per KW/H rates in the country. 3.5c in winter and 5.5c in summer.

    42. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Essentially the PWR was developed from scratch as a submarine power reactor. Has anyone ever used a PWR to make plutonium for weapons? I don't think so, but if someone knows better, feel free to correct me.

      RBMK was a development of a plutonium production reactor, yes, as were the Magnox and AGR reactors.

      We'd have had to have started from U in any case. It's the only naturally occuring fissile element. Pu-239 and U-233 have to be bred (from U-238 and Th-232 respectively). The thorium cycle would still need some initial fissile load to start it off.

    43. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So the total effort needed to build and maintain ALL of the power in the USA using existing solar technology is the same amount of effort it that we are already using to maintain the road system.

      To pave a road (mixed paving), a dump truck dumps rock into a paver, where it is mixed with oil, laid down on the road and then compacted and smoothed with a roller. At any given moment, 3 people are involved in the process (the paver operator, the roller operator and the dump truck driver) with a few auxiliary people (tanker driver, flagmen, more dump truck drivers, etc) not immediately involved in the operation. You can pave a full lane width several yards long per minute.

      Last time I checked, installing solar panels wasn't a matter of mixing some ingredients together in a paver and laying them down. It takes real manpower, far more than paving, and even with some extra labor, you still can't lay solar anywhere near as fast as paving a road. Your statement about the total effort required is pretty simplistic and doesn't take into account the extreme differences in effort required. A single crew can pave miles per day. In comparison, a single crew can install solar panels on one house rooftop in a day.

    44. Re:Baah by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

      This is correct. Nuclear is safe under normal operations. Its accidents we are worried about. We know accidents happen. People can be corrupt, negligent and so on, etc. Corporations try to cut costs to improve the profit margin. Another thing i forgot tp mention is terrorism and an intentional spill of radioactivity as well. Container technology is supposedly safe, the nuclear waste supposedly kept in tight facilities, yet, we've learned from the past not to take the reliability of technologies for granted. Long term storage cannot be done safely so it would be nice to have reprocessing. The waste is dangerous, in very small amounts, and it would not take much getting into the environment, either on a worker, or whatever, maybe a corrupt corporations who ignores contamination, etc. With the human element, nuclear becomes more dangerous.

      Perhaps with a massive regulatory framework and a very competent government and plant operator, and reprocessing, extensive checks, safeguards, and procedures, you can have safe nuclear and the chance of leaks or mishandling is nil. But the cost of an accident can be very high.

    45. Re:Baah by KDEWolf · · Score: 0

      That was a good prog... shockingly mentioning that we spend more per year on mobile ringtones than we do on fusion research.

      Solution: making a cool ringtone about how important is to invest in fusion research.

    46. Re:Baah by Golddess · · Score: 1

      I forget where I read it, but I seem to recall somewhere that 90-95% of "nuclear waste" is still usable fuel, it just needs to be cleaned up. Hopefully someone else reading this knows where I might have seen that, and can clue us in on the fact/fiction of it.

      --
      "I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
    47. Re:Baah by Alamais · · Score: 1

      Well there -are- a lot of unemployed people out there nowadays... :)

    48. Re:Baah by michael_cain · · Score: 4, Informative

      The numbers involved in realistic energy production are so large, it's almost always worth doing some simple scale calculations. Consider a small nuke with 500 MW faceplate capacity. 500 MW times 365 days/year times 24 hours/day times availability of 0.8 (allow for repair and maintenance) is 3.504e9 kWh/year.

      On the hemp side, a variety of sources give 9.0 dry tons/acre/year in temperate latitudes, 1.46e7 BTUs/ton, 2.928e-4 kWh/BTU at 100% efficiency, assume 0.4 thermal efficiency (traditional coal-fired plants are about 0.33), and availability of 1.0. These numbers are all on the generous side of their ranges. Multiply that and get 1.539e4 kWh/acre/year. Call it 227,680 acres to match the output of the small nuke. A square about 19 miles on a side.

      OTOH, assume cheap low-efficiency solar panels. Assume daily solar flux of 5.0 kWh per square meter per day (parts of the US are better than that), efficiency of 0.05, and availability of 1.0. Multiply that all out and get 3.693e5 kWh/acre/year. About 9,488 acres to match the output of the small nuke. Overall, an efficiency gain of 24 in favor of the panels.

      Sanity check: non-crop plants are about 1% efficient in converting solar flux to biomass, so a factor of 5.0 for solar panels; assumed thermal efficiency for biomass to electricity is a factor of 2.5 for panels; growing season of five months is a factor of roughly 2.0 for panels (five month growing season in temperate latitude, but it's the five months with greatest flux); that gives a factor of about 25 in favor of panels, which matches.

      Dye-sensitized solar cells can be manufactured in a roll-to-roll process, have demonstrated efficiencies greater than 5% when produced in that fashion, and depending on advances in the materials that can be used, may drastically change the cost per watt for solar PV. And solar PV can use land that's much more "marginal" than what's needed to support hemp: deserts, semi-arid high plains, and rooftops.

    49. Re:Baah by Fujisawa+Sensei · · Score: 1

      Because of course most of the arable land on the planet isn't currently needed to feed people. And even the current minuscule production of biofuels hasn't caused price hikes in food products that have left people starving to death.

      If you hadn't been paying attention in the last couple of years there have been tremendous food shortages throughout the world (leading to numerous food riots) mostly caused by loss of food production due to the spread of the fungus UG99 http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726474.400-killer-wheat-fungus-threatens-starvation-for-millions.html do we really want to produce even less food just so you can pump even more CO2 into the atmosphere???

      When hasn't there been a food shortage somewhere in the world?

      --
      If someone is passing you on the right, you are an asshole for driving in the wrong lane.
    50. Re:Baah by Mr2cents · · Score: 1

      Has anyone ever used a PWR to make plutonium for weapons?

      If not, then what is all the hassle with Iran's nuclear reactor? I always assumed it was for the inherent plutonium production.. I too stand open for corrections..

      --
      "It's too bad that stupidity isn't painful." - Anton LaVey
    51. Re:Baah by skarphace · · Score: 1

      Last time I checked, installing solar panels wasn't a matter of mixing some ingredients together in a paver and laying them down. It takes real manpower, far more than paving, and even with some extra labor, you still can't lay solar anywhere near as fast as paving a road. Your statement about the total effort required is pretty simplistic and doesn't take into account the extreme differences in effort required. A single crew can pave miles per day. In comparison, a single crew can install solar panels on one house rooftop in a day.

      You're assuming that it's going on houses and there's not a set process. Consider this, in the desert, like the GP was talking about, you have flat ground with easy access. Send two guys to put in some sort of framework to mount the panels to and that'll be their job. Then a truck and two more guys to come around and mount the panels and hook them into the grid.

      These guys can probably throw up many dozens or even hundreds per day as long as the mount and hookup is easy. Then the process is repeating it and replacing failed panels in a continuous way. There's no climbing onto unstable and angled rooftops, no real skill needed in positioning it, and a very orderly installation that doesn't really need a lot of skill.

      This can be done in a much easier and efficient way than road paving.

      --
      Bullish Machine Tzar
    52. Re:Baah by Alcoholist · · Score: 1

      I'm building a fusion reactor in my backyard right now. The trick is, you tell the neighbours it's just a fancy composter. Green is good! *thumbs up*

      --
      Bibo Ergo Sum.
    53. Re:Baah by shawb · · Score: 1

      Even a small accident can kill thousands of people and make a place unliveable for millions of years.

      Chernobyl, by no means a small nuclear accident, has killed 56 people so far... 47 workers directly involved in the immediate cleanup from radiation poisoning and 9 children in the surrounding area from thyroid cancer due to increased iodine-131 exposure, mostly through local milk. There have indeed been many cases of thyroid cancer which have been linked to Chernobyl, but it is actually a highly treatable cancer with a very good prognosis with early detection. The rise in the most malignant cancers such as leukemia should have been seen within ten years, but there has been no statistical increase found yet. Of the pregnant women who evacuated the area around Chernobyl who elected to carry full term, there was no significant increase in birth defects or mortality found in their children.

      As for making the place unlivable for millions of years? Study after study shows that after the initial death toll the wildlife took, populations have not been significantly impacted. Specimens have been taken from the area which are so radioactive that they have to be handled specially... however studies on even these animals show little to no statistical increase in DNA damage over control specimens. Often times, samples taken from areas of lower radiation exposure surprisingly showed LOWER rates of DNA damage and associated cancers than control specimens not affected by the accident... the current best supported theory of radiation hormesis is that low levels of radiation exposure trigger DNA repair mechanisms which account for this anomaly, and studies have found that proteins responsible for DNA repair are indeed transcribed at a much higher rate in mildly irradiated organisms. Basically, it has been shown that the linear non-threshold model used to predict casualties due to radiation has been shown to be invalid at exposures lower than about 100 milliSeverts.

      This video from the BBC has a pretty good summary. Am I going to attempt to get irradiated? No. But the current widely held fear of low dose radiation simply is not supported by evidence, but a mathematical model which is proving to be faulty the more we look at it.

      --
      I'll never make that mistake again, reading the experts' opinions. - Feynman
    54. Re:Baah by drsmithy · · Score: 1

      To produce ALL the power used in the US now, including all electricity, heating and transportation energy use, requires a patch of solar panels in the southwest desert about 170,000 km^2 assuming 8% efficiency (which is low). That's about the same as the paved area of the USA (160,000 km^2), and about 1/3rd of the desert area.

      Does this number account for the fact that Solar, like a government worker, is only useful for about four hours a day ?

    55. Re:Baah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The fuss about Iran is really about US desperately trying to stay on as a "world power". The rest of us have no problems at all with Iran going for nuclear energy - they should!

      US gov lied to you about nuclear weapons in Irak. They're still lying.

    56. Re:Baah by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes, it's true. All modern nuclear fissions devices basically can use the old "waste" as fuel, leave no long-lasting highly radioactive waste (which is an oxymoron in itself btw) and are so safe it's impossible (even if you go the Chernobyl way of really trying) to make them suffer a melt down.

      Everyone knows this except for the greenies. They just cover their ears and keep on screaming.

      Oh, links:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor

    57. Re:Baah by jacquesm · · Score: 1

      I think it's important to realize as well that Chernobyl was not as bad as it easily could have been. So, the fact that '*only*' 56 people were killed directly does not mean that a larger scale accident should be ruled out. It's one of the few datapoints we've got on nuclear power station accidents with direct fatalities, so it could be good news, it could be bad news. More data = more knowledge.

       

    58. Re:Baah by progliberty · · Score: 1

      So are you actually willing to store nuclear fission waste in your apartment or your back yard?

  2. Someone just give this man some money.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bussard

    Even if he fails miserably its gonna cost a shedload less than all the projects like ITER around the world are

    1. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by Kokuyo · · Score: 4, Funny

      And what kind of breakthrough would you expect from throwing money at a dead man? Or was that the implied joke?

    2. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 5, Informative

      The OP was probably referring to the Polywell concept developed by Bussard, which indeed sounds quite interesting. Research is going on after Bussard's death, but you don't hear much due to most of it being military funded.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    3. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by The_Wilschon · · Score: 1

      I'm glad you know more about fusion reactor design viability than people who are devoting their entire working lives to the problem.

      --
      SIGSEGV caught, terminating

      wait... not that kind of sig.
    4. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by EdZ · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why not simply have more than one avenue of research? We have many designs of fission reactor (PWR, pebble bed, MAGNOX, fast-breeders, etc), many designs of internal combustion engine (4-stroke, 2-stroke, rotary, gas turbine, diesel, etc), why not have several designs of fusion reactor as well? Tokemaks, Spheromaks, Polywells, PPDs, laser inertial and so on, all of them may have different applications, different niches where they work better than others.

    5. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by grumbel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      See, thats exactly the problem. If you invest everything you have into a single solution, you are kind of stuck with it, as you end up being to busy fixing the problems of your current solution to look for alternative solutions. Polywell presents an alternative and tries to tackle the problem from a completly different angle. Nobody knows if it would work out, but if you believe Bussards google talk it would cost a tiny fraction of ITERs cost to build a full scale Polywell reactor to find it out and it wouldn't take 15 years either. ITER has the problem of being way to expensive and way to unsuccessful so far, if you would pump similar amounts of money into alternative solution, you might already have found one.

    6. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by socrplayr813 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Specific results aren't shared, no, but there is a pretty active community. The project leader, Dr. Rick Nebel, shares what information he can and there are some pretty in-depth discussions between him and other people who are very knowledgeable about physics and fusion. The best thing though, is that they are very likely to have a solid yes or no answer on Polywell within a year or two and it's going to cost them a tiny fraction of what ITER and similar are costing.

      --
      The confidence of ignorance will always overcome the indecision of knowledge.
    7. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by socrplayr813 · · Score: 1

      Specific results aren't shared, no, but there is a pretty active community. The project leader, Dr. Rick Nebel, shares what information he can and there are some pretty in-depth discussions between him and other people who are very knowledgeable about physics and fusion. The best thing though, is that they are very likely to have a solid yes or no answer on Polywell within a year or two and it's going to cost them a tiny fraction of what ITER and similar are costing.

      Sorry.... my HTML was ignored there for some reason... the community is here. They post all kinds of fusion news, do their own research, and are even working on an open source Polywell design. I've been lurking there for a while now. Some of it can be very dry reading, but it's quite interesting nonetheless.

      --
      The confidence of ignorance will always overcome the indecision of knowledge.
    8. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The standard sun model (hydrogen fusion core) is wrong.

      There is satellite evidence that suggests a liquid iron-nickel sun with insulating layers of neon, calcium, sulfur and silicon. Interestingly, Iron-nickel has the ability to absorb/compress Deuterium atoms and Helium3 output has been observed in cold fusion research. Coincidence? You decide.

      This area of research has great potential, any enterprising individuals reading this?

    9. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by Yergle143 · · Score: 1

      What is up with this approach then? I've read the internet news, perused the google lecture, read a few papers (Bremstrahlung as a potential deal breaker on p + B?) But why is this work not more mainstream peer-reviewed University of Wisconsin type stuff? It is obvious the ITER is not going to provide a working powerplant prototype even if the benchmarks are obtained but why are the other configurations utterly unstudied? 537

    10. Re:Someone just give this man some money.... by dtfusion · · Score: 1

      From Bussard's google talk, he estimated the COE to be in the range of 0.02 USD to 0.05 USD/kwhr. That implies a cost of at least $1/W for the plant. 1GW=1Billion USD. You can decide if that is a tiny fraction of ITER construction or not. Of course we're assuming that the first full scale polywell reactor will be built on time and on budget with no difficulties. And of course, the fusion community has not invested everything in a single solution. Even researchers on ITER and other tokamaks have often been involved/invested in other designs in the past: mirrors, stellerators, pinches - an existence proof that they are able to recognize promising new concepts. Just because they don't recognize polywell as promising doesn't mean they are wrong.

  3. bvgygtggtvcxrgnh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is any part of Back to the Future II going to happen? Besides the Internet, the future's turning out to be a total ripoff.
     

     

     

    1. Re:bvgygtggtvcxrgnh by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      the future's turning out to be a total ripoff.

      It always has.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    2. Re:bvgygtggtvcxrgnh by Craig+Davison · · Score: 1

      Giant TVs everywhere happened.

  4. Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by sien · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

    If fusion could be made to work for 2-3 times the cost of coal electricity massively reducing C02 emissions without massively cutting energy usage would be possible. It's worth spending money to find this out. Bjorn Lomborg, who is loathed by most environmentalists recommends spending more on alternative energy research. Anthorny Watts would probably approve spending more on this kind of fusion research.

    Surely if the US and the Europe, that would collectively spend about 700 Bn a YEAR on defence are serious about alternative energy this should be funded more.

    Steven Chu where are you?

    1. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by MichaelSmith · · Score: 4, Interesting

      So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

      Probably because its not going to work. Fusion can only be made to work on a large scale, if at all. Every step along the way will cost the 15 billion you speak of and we are probably 100 years away from commercial production of energy. Wind, tide, photovoltaic and solar thermal power work right now. They can be tested on a small scale for a couple of thousand bucks then scaled up as far as you want in many cases.

    2. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      First off that money is best spent on wars killing people reducing carbon - the massive amounts from the death machines and production maintenance and repair of the military complex.

      Second by then it will be to little to late since the bio systems are already breaking down to a degree of mass extinction world wide. 25% mammal species are gone in last 100 years, most big sea fish... Our growth rate is unsustainable and we know it yet don't care. OIL IS THE ANSWER !!!! drill in arctic!!!! nuclear is good cause we only have to use retarded amounts of energy(oil/gas) to extract and strip mine land for to collect it!

    3. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by tomtomtom777 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

      Please note, that it is not 15 Bn to get fusion energy. It is 15 Bn for fusion energy research. The equations depends on the amount that such research would help. If there is only a tiny chance that the development of fusion energy would be a tiny step closer with this research, 15 Bn is suddenly quite a lot

    4. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by captainpanic · · Score: 1

      So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

      If fusion could be made to work for 2-3 times the cost of coal electricity massively reducing C02 emissions without massively cutting energy usage would be possible.

      The fusion boys should aim for the same energy price as coal power, simply because wind and solar are almost there. Wind energy suffers more from a lack of space to place the turbines at this moment (and in the future possibly from a lack of energy storage)... Solar power is believed to reach normal electricity prices in areas like Spain and Italy in the next few years.

      If fusion is 2-3 times more expensive, and no cleaner than solar/wind power - why invest in it?

      for 10 billion, you can also construct 10 Gigawatts of wind power... which will eventually (within a few years) pay itself back.

    5. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Marcika · · Score: 4, Informative

      So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

      Please note, that it is not 15 Bn to get fusion energy. It is 15 Bn for fusion energy research. The equations depends on the amount that such research would help. If there is only a tiny chance that the development of fusion energy would be a tiny step closer with this research, 15 Bn is suddenly quite a lot

      But it is not a "tiny step", it is the last and most important step that is supposed to iron out the last big problems with the design and materials before a grid-connected multi-GW power plant can be commissioned (that would be DEMO, now not likely to come on stream before 2040).

    6. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 1

      I am all for investment in fusion technology, but that money should be better spent. Even if the Tokamak approach can be made to work, it will never be economically viable. It is extremely expensive, and there is no hope of scaling it down; the physics requires such an enormous and complex machine.

      In the mean time, there are a number of other very promising approaches which continue to be neglected, and these could be funded at a small fraction of the cost. What is very frustrating is that most of these have been around for a long time, and some were even cancelled so that our futile pursuit of Tokamaks could continue.

    7. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Marcika · · Score: 4, Interesting

      for 10 billion, you can also construct 10 Gigawatts of wind power... which will eventually (within a few years) pay itself back.

      Because 10GW of wind power gives you a LOT less energy than 10GW of nuclear. Typical wind power capacity factors are 20-40% (wind doesn't always blow), typical (fission) nuclear capacity factors are 90%-ish. Thus nuclear plants are cheaper than wind even if they cost 3 times as much per GW.

      In addition, wind power needs additional grid investment and lots of pumped storage to even out spikes in capacity to be suitable for base load power, while nuclear power plants are suitable from the get-go.

    8. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by mako1138 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In the mean time, there are a number of other very promising approaches which continue to be neglected, and these could be funded at a small fraction of the cost. What is very frustrating is that most of these have been around for a long time, and some were even cancelled so that our futile pursuit of Tokamaks could continue.

      Such as?

    9. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by moon3 · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      "Scientific" or other government project are not awarded according to our current need, but due to lobby of various kind.

      Thats why military receives $600 billion and crucial stem cell research nil.

      So much for our blessed democracy.

      Speaking of democracy. Hell, you can even invade and wage a war in two different countries at once and blame the other party. This is fantastic system.

    10. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      The reason the tokamak approach has been followed for ITER is that it is currently the most promising. Temperatures achievable in tokamak reactors are orders of magnitude higher than in other machines. Tokamaks have demonstrated fusion-relevant temperatures (~10 keV, 100 million degrees C) and net power gain (briefly in TFTR and JT60-U), and long pulse operation (in e.g. Tore Supra). Other approaches still need much more research before they get to the ITER stage.

      The only other designs which come close are stellarators, and this approach is also being followed with this machine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X
      The main problem with stellarators is that they need very complicated coil arrangements (whereas tokamaks' are pretty simple), greatly increasing the costs. Until relatively recently (10-20 years), the computing power necessary to design these machines properly simply wasn't available. Wendelstein 7-X is projected to have a performance similar to the JET tokamak (which was built in 1982).

      Non-toroidal designs (e.g. linear machines, fusors etc.) always have problems with loss of particles/energy along magnetic fields (end loss), primarily due to fast electrons. This is because non-toroidal magnetic field structures always have nulls or holes where plasma can escape: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hairy_ball_theorem

      Disclosure: I am a plasma physicist working on tokamaks

    11. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by SolusSD · · Score: 1

      The parent makes a very good point, and I'd like to add- The excuse for underfunding fusion power research has for a long time been that fusion power is at least 30 years off. Seems like a great reason to start aggressively pursuing it _now_. After all, in 30 years we will need fusion power more desperately than ever. Researchers in the field have long pointed out that the problems with fusion as a source of energy are not theoretical, but technical hurtles. This _is_ the solution to our ongoing energy crisis.

    12. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      Segueing from that, the next Big Investment should be in a HVDC European backbone, so that there's the potential (ho ho) to transport and sell power, and thus the incentive for any given region to fully exploit its renewable resources.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    13. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by afc_wimbledon · · Score: 4, Informative

      Wind, tide, photovoltaic and solar thermal power work right now.

      Wind power only works when it's windy, and where it's windy, and not as efficiently as generally advertised. NIMBYs object to serious scale windfarms on land, and they kill migrating birds and cock up radar. There will also need to be a hugely expensive and unsightly ( or buried, and even more expensive) expansion of power grid systems.

      Tidal systems are hideously expensive - estimates of UKL 23 billion for the Severn Barrage for example. And they have massive negative effects on wildlife too. NIMBYS are not fans of these either.

      Photovolatic systems are unproven, but on a serious scale would probably involve enormous quantities of highly toxic chemicals. Like wind power, solar power is not available where the power is needed all the time, or even any of the time in many populated regions.

      Barring a massive program of depopulation, there are no quick answers to power production vs climate change. Some or all of the three methods above will probably be part of the solution, as will be fusion power, fission power, carbon sequestration and other technologies, plus a lot of money. Anyone who says otherwise is probably selling snake oil.

    14. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What about inertial confinement? Granted, it didn't look promising for a while, but with fast or shock ignition the predicted gains are much higher.

      OK, even if they can show high gain there's still a lot to do in terms of driver and target factory development, but it's an interesting approach. There seems to be more scope for reducing driver laser cost than reducing tokamak cost as well.

    15. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Yoozer · · Score: 5, Funny

      NIMBYs object to serious scale windfarms on land

      NIMBYS are not fans of these either.

      Barring a massive program of depopulation

      Well, there's your solution.

    16. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      If fusion is 2-3 times more expensive, and no cleaner than solar/wind power - why invest in it?

      Because it produces more power per area, and does not depend on local weather conditions. This also means that you can use it as a power source outside of Earths atmosphere and far away from the sun.

    17. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by jiriw · · Score: 1

      I'm all for wind and solar but you might want to remember the fact those two aren't continuously available. Solar has a 24h cycle with roughly half of it producing no power at all. And ... well, the answer to the other one... is blowing in the wind.
      Don't give me the battery crap to manage low yield hours. Battery storage is fine for emergencies. It's not fine for large scale use because it's wholly inefficient and materials consuming (to make them, and keep making them to replace degraded ones). Same goes for long distance power lines. Either you lose quite a lot of energy in transport or you lose it because you cool your superconducting lines over too long a distance, unless you make a mega research project for spanning the globe with a large scale efficient superconducting power line which will cost you comparable billions and comparable international cooperation. A third option is making hydrogen of the spare electricity in high yield hours. But before that is efficient enough and researched through I think we have better options.
      So we need some stable energy sources beside wind and solar. Hydro is good, in those areas where it can be available, reliably. But those areas are small and not always near places where people want to live. Besides, hydro also can have quite an environmental impact. (China, three gorges anyone?)
      So we're left with the polluting forms energy generation for a stable grid. Which are:
      -Gas: Relatively clean on the CO2 front, easily distributable for use in small 'neighborhood' serving power plants. But it could be better used for, for example, cooking. Besides there is a limited amount of it in fossil form.
      -Oil: Out of the question. Oil is much too useful for making products to waste it on electricity generation.
      -Coal: Say bye bye to the coastal plains because they are gonna flood if we keep going on as we are doing now.
      -Fission: In it's current form with all its problems: Wholly inadequate, but we might have to stick to it, if we don't research fusion and get something good out of it. Only thing I see this become a better option is going the breeder reactor way and burn ALL the uranium (including the U238), take the risk and say 'Nuclear weapons proliferation up my a**'. To have a cleaner way of fission also requires quite some research. Especially in how to get those hot reactors safer than they were in the past. There are a lot more of dangerous isotopes we have to handle this way, but when done wisely it will ultimately lead in far less radioactive polutants than the current way we use nuclear fission.
      -Fusion: It's complex, it's hard to do. Every shortcut we tried up to now failed miserably. The only way we think it might reliably work is the way of ITER. We owe it to our (grand) children to at least try it once. Give it a good chance before we 'pull the plug'. A couple of billion is nothing compared to the wealth of knowledge it will surely enrich the scientific community with and the chance we have for this being the prelude to something marvelous.

    18. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by mako1138 · · Score: 1

      Assuming there's decent energy gain, the challenge for ICF becomes the rate. For laser ICF, you need a rate on the order of 1 Hz (generously). It's going to take a while before that becomes possible. And when the rate goes up, the neutrons will have to be dealt with.

    19. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by ledow · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yeah but where would you stick the bodies? That controversy would generate more NIMBY's and form an infinite loop - maybe if we burned all the bodies, we could stick some sort of steam-powered turbine on the fire and with our infinite supply of NIMBY's (bouyed up to excess with those NIMBY's who don't like the stench from the fire)...

    20. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      The French oil company Total racked up 13 billions of profit last year. That is an interesting comparison.

      However, I think that ITER (that is not btw a French effort but a real international cooperation including EU, US, Japan and others) suffers from very poor management : it took them almost 5 years to decide where they would build the prototype. I wouldn't be surprised if most of their time was wasted in bikeshed discussions.

      My bets are safer put on the Chinese fusion reactor project

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    21. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by DrWho520 · · Score: 1

      If any project was threatening to come in 5 years late at double in cost, should money just be thrown at it? Do not let the clean energy siren lull you out of common sense and good engineering practices. These delays and cost overruns are a clear signs of an incomplete design. Collect the designs, gather the lessons learned and start over. Return to an earlier stage of development, incorporate the wisdom gained from this project. Fix the gaps in the original design with real solutions, not stop-gap measures. And figure out your supply chain because "an unanticipated increase in staffing to manage procurement" screams extra support staff and middle management flotsam. Nothing makes project costs soar like additional, non-budgeted support staff and middle management. Stop pouring the concrete and fix the blueprints!

      It always seemed ITER was started a little early, before enough was known to build a practical device. That is now clearly apparent.

      --
      The cancel button is your friend. Do not hesitate to use it.
    22. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Barring a massive program of depopulation, there are no quick answers to power production vs climate change.

      We could use a little less power. It really would be OK.

      My little family has cut our carbon footprint by about 70 percent over the past 10 years, just by doing little sensible things.

      We've also cut way down on the energy footprint on our credit cards. Now, not everyone can make the changes we've made, which mainly involved living 5 blocks from our jobs, but it can be done. In the summer, we use passive solar energy to dry lots of our clothes and linens (which makes them nice and white and smell good, thanks to the combination of sunlight and evaporating water).

      When my daughter cut her hair short, just the decrease in blowdryer-time saved us a bundle. And, I'm really OK with not covering our house in electric lights and animatronic santa clauses at Christmas time.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    23. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by ae1294 · · Score: 1

      If I had the 200 million I'd give The Polywell Design Team the money to build the full scale plant without blinking twice. Even the US government knows it's likely to work and that is why they have been providing just enough money to keep the project going until it's time to switch over to fusion.

      (after all the big wig's get out of the oil business and things get bad enough to start causing a large enough disruption in "nation security" so as to allow the passage of all the coming "for your protection and safety" laws.)

      Read the wiki article on the polywell and see for yourself. Take a look at the design and the low power requirements and the lack of nasty radiation.

      The guy who came up with this idea isn't some quack off working in his basement. Yeah he is dead but his work isn't.

    24. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by AtomicJake · · Score: 1

      So the Europeans and the US governments say they are firmly convinced of dangerous anthropogenic global warming but they won't spend 15 Bn over 10 years to speed this up?

      Probably because its not going to work. Fusion can only be made to work on a large scale, if at all. Every step along the way will cost the 15 billion you speak of and we are probably 100 years away from commercial production of energy. Wind, tide, photovoltaic and solar thermal power work right now. They can be tested on a small scale for a couple of thousand bucks then scaled up as far as you want in many cases.

      This is not an "either-or" question. There are, for very good reasons, heavy investments into wind, solar, other renewable energies. This does not exclude the research on fusion.

    25. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by ae1294 · · Score: 2, Informative

      You'll be reading about these people in 10 years or so http://www.emc2fusion.org/

    26. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by x2A · · Score: 4, Informative

      "Photovolatic systems are unproven, but on a serious scale would probably involve enormous quantities of highly toxic chemicals"

      Photovoltaic isn't the only option for solar power though. This article about a plant in Spain that uses mirrors to collect light, heats water, which drives a standard turbine. This is basically last century's technology, very easy to do (relatively speaking of course), yet genius all the same.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    27. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by afc_wimbledon · · Score: 2, Interesting

      We could use a little less power.

      We all could, and should (I gave up my car a couple of years ago, and saved carbon AND money; I haven't flown for about 5 years). But that's in the developed world - the rest of the world wants (not unreasonably) to have some of the things we've been enjoying for decades. There's a lot of them, and it will more than offset the savings you and I make.

      As I said, the real solution will be complex, and will involve lots if not all the changes and new technologies mentioned. There is no "do this one thing" solution (except for doing nothing, and letting our kids deal with it).

    28. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by dachshund · · Score: 1

      Because 10GW of wind power gives you a LOT less energy than 10GW of nuclear. Typical wind power capacity factors are 20-40% (wind doesn't always blow), typical (fission) nuclear capacity factors are 90%-ish. Thus nuclear plants are cheaper than wind even if they cost 3 times as much per GW.

      But does that make it a bad deal? Even if you have to scale up by three times to get the equivalent energy, is the cost (at scale) going to be substantially higher than that of nuclear? (When you take into account the government-subsidized costs of waste-management, fuel re-processing, security, ensuring non-proliferation when developing countries seek to implement it, etc.) I'm asking this as a question--- it's not rhetorical.

      In addition, wind power needs additional grid investment and lots of pumped storage to even out spikes in capacity to be suitable for base load power, while nuclear power plants are suitable from the get-go.

      This is a big deal. But my guess is that we're overestimating the base load power requirement. Even with a large nuclear component, it seems to me that industry is going to have to move to a more flexible "operate when power is cheapest" model anyway. (This is especially true, since energy cost is increasingly going to dominate the cost of human labor in an automated plant.) Even residential use may have to go this way to some extent. Of course, there's satellite forecasting and other sources (solar, for instance) that make renewable power availability more predictable.

      This will require huge grid upgrades, but quite frankly, given the political environment, those are substantially more likely than large-scale construction of nuclear power near population centers

    29. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NIF/Laser Megajoule?

    30. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I say if we can spend, what was it, about 1*10^12 dollars, on automakers and wall street, much of which we almost certainly will never get back, we should be able to afford to put $1.5*10^10 dollars into Fusion research, which seems like it at least is is no *more* speculative than throwing money at detroit and failed banks, and which might have far greater payoff if we *do* win that particular bet. The nature of technology is to get cheaper over time, right? Seems to me that Fusion, if we get it working, will be expensive, *at first*, so that it may not be competitive with coal, etc in the short term.

      But, given time, if we can make fusion work at all, the price/kWh should drop to be competitive or cheaper. Of course, the more R&D dollars you put into it, you would expect the development and price reduction to speed up. Put more money in now and as you go along, and we might get relatively affordable fusion in, say, 30 years isntead of 50 years, and cheaper fusion in maybe 60 years instead of 100 years. Of course, one hopes that at some point, those dollars are coming from private industry more than governments. But, with something like Fusion research which is massively expensive, somewhat speculative, and won't pay off for decades, it's difficult to get private funding in sufficient quantities. Since energy security is an incredibly important part of national security, and since one of the chief reasons for the existence of government is Nat. Sec., I feel that research like this is appropriate to use government funds for.

    31. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by peppepz · · Score: 1

      Because 10GW of wind power gives you a LOT less energy than 10GW of nuclear. Typical wind power capacity factors are 20-40% (wind doesn't always blow), typical (fission) nuclear capacity factors are 90%-ish. Thus nuclear plants are cheaper than wind even if they cost 3 times as much per GW.

      In addition, wind power needs additional grid investment and lots of pumped storage to even out spikes in capacity to be suitable for base load power, while nuclear power plants are suitable from the get-go.

      Nuclear power plants also need grid investments, because they keep producing maximum power even during the night, when nobody (locally) is wanting it.
      This, too, has to be taken into account when talking about their efficiency.

    32. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      My little family has cut our carbon footprint by about 70 percent over the past 10 years, just by doing little sensible things.

      The problem is that even if the entire developed world reduced their footprint 70%, the raising of the third world to the same standard of living, and therefore energy use, swamps your savings.

      IE, you going from 1.0 to .3 is far outweighed by the 10 chinese going from .1 to .3

      For this we need more than conservation - we need to address the generation side as well.

      I was seriously disappointed with ITER when I read it wasn't even designed to have the option to install power generation equipment.

      From my understanding of the technology, fusion should scale well. Double the dimensions, use 4 times as much energy to get the fusion reaction going, but get 8 times the energy back.

      If building a *true* plant costs a trillion dollars or euros, fine, but it'd better produce enough power that 2-3 of them can power the entire United States or Europe. I've estimated before that 400 new 1 GW fission plants could replace every existing nuclear/coal plant, making our electricity more or less carbon neutral. Those 400 plants would cost ~$800-1200 Billion. Economy of scale might make it approach the low end more.

      I say 2 because you need redundancy. 400 nuclear plants would have plenty of redundancy. Heck, with some agreements and a bunch of superconducting cables, one in Canada, Mexico, and the USA should provide enough power.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    33. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      True, but it's not as bad as for wind. Base load is at least 50% of average load, IIRC, so you can generate 50% of your electricity with nuclear without needing to load follow.

      Wind, on the other hand, is intermittent. If you have more installed wind capacity than the maximum baseload demand, then at some points you're going to be generating more wind power than you can use. Given that the capacity factor of wind is maybe 30%, then if baseload generation is 50% of average this occurs at 15% of electricity generated from wind.

    34. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Jerf · · Score: 1

      There is nothing magic about science just because it is big. If anything, it is more likely to be wrong, not less. A 30-year prediction in fusion research is exactly as valuable as a 30-year prediction about the progress of any other science, which is to say, worthless.

      No, it is not a promise about the progress of the actually-useful grid. Rationally, saying that the actually-useful plant is 30 years away is only barely not equivalent to saying "We do not believe this will ever be practical.", once future certainty depreciation is taken into account.

      If you want fusion in any sane timeframe, keep an eye on the alternate approaches like Bussard fusion. That may not work either, but at least they're honest enough to say so, rather than pretending that success is inevitable.

    35. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by mzs · · Score: 1

      Yes 50-60% is pretty much the norm. The French do something clever in a number of plants though. They use excess to pump water into a reservoir and then later when they need extra they release the water to turn turbines to generate more. They essentially use the reservoir as a huge battery. It is not too terribly efficient but it lets you get above about 60% or so for nuclear power in your grid. Pretty much everywhere else coal plants are used to fill out the grid.

    36. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by EvilBudMan · · Score: 1

      --Fusion can only be made to work on a large scale, if at all.--

      We have already made it work but the confinement has to be made to work as well, so the only way that can happen is to build a giant plant to test it, but a Tokomak scaled up would most likely work because the bigger they make them the better the efficiency. Go big enough and you get enormous power that is fairly clean.

    37. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by squoozer · · Score: 1

      Or better than that why not go for a super conducting grid? Seems to me that the majority of the technology is now available at a fairly reasonable price and the liquid nitrogen casing could act as an energy store in itself for wind power.

      --
      I used to have a better sig but it broke.
    38. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      But does that make it a bad deal? Even if you have to scale up by three times to get the equivalent energy, is the cost (at scale) going to be substantially higher than that of nuclear? (When you take into account the government-subsidized costs of waste-management, fuel re-processing, security, ensuring non-proliferation when developing countries seek to implement it, etc.) I'm asking this as a question--- it's not rhetorical.

      In the USA waste disposal isn't subsidized - Nuclear power plant operators, by law, pay a tarrif per kwh in exchange for the government disposing of it. To date, there are lawsuits going on because the government hasn't. Instead the nuclear power plant operators have had to figure out their own storage solutions to date.

      Bring in actual recycling and the amount of stuff needing storage goes down by at least a factor of 10, and the time it needs to be stored by a factor more like 100. At those waste levels your typical nuclear plant site can store waste indefinitly.

      For security and safety, well, NK now has 'the bomb', how much longer will non-proliferation be a factor when everybody who wants the bomb has it? Security from terrorists? There are far easier targets than even a lightly guarded nuke plant - they're designed to make getting to the materials difficult, after all. They're more likely to get themselves killed trying.

      This is a big deal. But my guess is that we're overestimating the base load power requirement.

      The problem is that Wind&Solar aren't demand based systems either. Solar may factor well with air conditioning, but what if a substantial portion of the population paint their roof white* and drive electric cars in a decade? Heck, install a 500 gallon or so tank**, then use the water in it to provide heat/cooling in a load leveling fashion.

      While nuclear plants are generally base load in the USA due to them having the cheapest marginal cost per kwh, they are capable of working in a load following mode where they can economically produce between 40-70% of their maximum capacity

      [quote]Even with a large nuclear component, it seems to me that industry is going to have to move to a more flexible "operate when power is cheapest" model anyway. [/quote]

      Industry already does this. But you have to remember the large capital costs for equipment and manpower requirements - they might like it best when power is cheap, but lose money slower by staying operating even when the price spikes.

      *Among other energy efficiency improvements that reduce the need for and energy costs of air conditioning.
      **Properly sized for the actual heating demand.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    39. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      There's 'agressive' funding, and there's just getting stupid. One of the other posters mentioned a non-tokamak design that currently has a flaw - it required too much computing power for the necessary modeling until recently.

      There's a lot of non-nuclear research going on that can solve some/many of the problems we currently have with fusion.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    40. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by wjwlsn · · Score: 2, Informative

      Most light water reactors are capable of load following to some extent. I worked at a BWR/6 that had originally been designed (as probably most were) with a mode in which the transmission grid operator could control reactor power within a limited range (the MASTER AUTO setting of the recirculating flow control system). Manual load follow would be doable on a routine basis over a fairly significant power range (say from 70% rated up to 100%). We didn't do either because our utility had dirt-burners and gas plants for that, but it would have been possible.

      I'm pretty sure some of the BWRs in Illinois used to load follow on a regular basis. It was discussed in my GE-provided Station Nuclear Engineering course.

      According to http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf40.html, the currently operating French nukes (PWRs) load follow to some extent. Furthermore, that page states that "...Plants being built today, eg according to European Utilities' Requirements (EUR), have load-following capacity fully built in." To my knowledge, that would include the two EPRs being built now at Olkiluoto (Finland) and Flamanville (France).

      --
      Getting tired of Slashdot... moving to Usenet comp.misc for a while.
    41. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Firethorn · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If any project was threatening to come in 5 years late at double in cost, should money just be thrown at it?

      For most projects? Heck no. But this is a research project - and it isn't like a computer game where you need X research points for that fancy new tech. You don't really know how much it's going to end up costing; you can't even be sure it'll work. You can only throw resources at it(scientists, equipment, money, time) and hope to get something useful back.

      All you can do is make your best guess and hope you're right. In many cases, coming in at double the cost is more normal than coming in on budget - after all, we're doing something that hasn't been done before.

      They probably HAVE done the steps you mention - but that costs money as well, and it ends up being cheaper to only partially step back and rebuild.

      If I'm building a skyscraper I'd expect it to be within 10% of budget when done. If I'm building the first solar powered skyscraper robotic greenhouse with pollution filtering equipment, if I come in within 50% of original cost estimates it's an excuse for a party.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    42. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NIMBYs object to serious scale windfarms on land

      NIMBYS are not fans of these either.

      Barring a massive program of depopulation

      Well, there's your solution.

      obviously then, the solution is nuclear! whether they work without incident or not, it is a win-win.

      Seriously though, if you do some research, it really does look like nuclear is the best option for base load.

    43. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Imagine that we were talking about gas turbines here. Every new test machine costs ten billion dollars. Lots of people have been able to make a turbine work by spinning it with an electric motor. The believe that in theory it should be possible to get electricity out if enough heat can be generated to make combustion self sustaining.

      I think that puts the technology at about the year 1850 for power generation. Making fusion a viable energy source (not a lab experiment) will take fifty years after the experiments have finished.

    44. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by afc_wimbledon · · Score: 1

      If building a *true* plant costs a trillion dollars or euros, fine, but it'd better produce enough power that 2-3 of them can power the entire United States or Europe.

      There are big problems with this approach though, both from the additional costs of power grid systems to move all that electricity about, and the problems (terrorism, maintenance, malfunctions, etc) of relying on a single, or even a reduced number, of points of failure.

      Imagine if http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm blacked out all of North America, and not just Quebec for instance.

    45. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by Eclipse-now · · Score: 1
      Dude, wind is now almost competitive with coal, let alone nuclear! Listen to this podcast http://www.garageband.com/mp3/Press_Teleconference_with_Lester_Brown_on_The_Flaw.mp3?|pe1|WdjZPXLrvP2rYVK2YWhhAQ Or try this page. http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update78.htm Read this paragraph VERY carefully and then click the link if you want to know more about the nuclear costs NOT counted in the study, yet it is ALREADY TWICE as expensive as nuclear.

      In an excellent recent analysis, "The Nuclear Illusion," Amory B. Lovins and Imran Sheikh put the cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant at 14 per kilowatt hour and that from a wind farm at 7 per kilowatt hour. This comparison includes the costs of fuel, capital, operations and maintenance, and transmission and distribution. It does not include the additional costs for nuclear of disposing of waste, insuring plants against an accident, and decommissioning the plants when they wear out. Given this huge gap, the so-called nuclear revival can succeed only by unloading these costs onto taxpayers. If all the costs of generating nuclear electricity are included in the price to consumers, nuclear power is dead in the water.

      Personally, I like the podcasts.... they are teleconferences and cover a lot of information, all while on my morning walk!

    46. Re:Crazy- this should be funded more to go faster by EvilBudMan · · Score: 1

      --Making fusion a viable energy source (not a lab experiment) will take fifty years after the experiments have finished.--

      That was my point maybe they should skip steps in experimentation since the idea is that fusion will only work at large scales. There is not really any danger of building a large scale plant. It is just costly. We skipped lots of steps like that with fission because we thought we had to get that going before the Germans. We'll I dunno pick a technology or all of them and start building large scale at the same time that you are designing. It's called design build. I do think speed is important at this point and 50 years is too long to wait. OK then invest your R & D into solar. You have to get the efficiency up to at least 80%. Maybe invest in everything that might be possible. At this point it would still be cheaper to do this then to bail everything out like GM that has even less chance of succeeding at anything. The US taxpayer has spent more on one company than DEMO would probably cost and I know more than ITER would cost. BTW I wasn't talking about a perpetual motion machine, just a fusion reactor that can keep a sustained reaction going. It's not 1850's tech but 1950's tech.

  5. I've got the promo materials in front of me... by VShael · · Score: 4, Funny

    and I swear, it's like reading the Duke Nukem Forever "reviews" that appeared when the product is/was/ vaporware.

    "The ITER tokamak, 24 metres high and 30 metres wide, will be smaller than a conventional power station. It will produce up to 500 MW of thermal power in a toroidal fusion plasma of 800m^3 volume confined by strong magnetic fields. It will demonstrate prolonged power production aiming ultimately a steady-state operation."

    In the words of wikipedia, citation please?

    1. Re:I've got the promo materials in front of me... by mako1138 · · Score: 3, Informative

      In the words of wikipedia, citation please?

      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jnucmat.2004.04.004

      But seriously, with the hedging language in the statement you've quoted, there's nothing controversial. Note the "up to" and "aiming ultimately". (Plus "prolonged" in this line of business means a few minutes.) Fusion scientists are cautious people, having made rosy predictions in the past that never came to fruition. And when you're cautious, it's hard to convince lawmakers to hand over the money.

      On the other hand, ITER as a concept has been around since the '80s. If they had just gone ahead with it back then, we would have learned a lot by now. Same goes for the cancellation of the SSC.

    2. Re:I've got the promo materials in front of me... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wikipedia invented citations?

    3. Re:I've got the promo materials in front of me... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wikipedia invented citations?

      No, but it did popularize the tiresome meme "citation please", so often used by those who don't know anything about the subject at hand.

  6. I'll cross my fingures harder for polywell then by jabjoe · · Score: 4, Informative

    Don't know about anyone else but polywell is far more interesting to me. IF it works, then it will be much better then tokamak. At this rate, IF it works, it could also beat tokamak to net energy production. I have a dream of cheap energy! Nearly all the worlds problems come down to energy! I'll keep dreaming. ;-)

    1. Re:I'll cross my fingures harder for polywell then by BerntB · · Score: 3, Informative

      Nebel recently claimed in an interview that he expects to know if Polywell will work or not in 18-24 months. Not a long wait, really...

      There are some other funded projects that might work (and some that probably won't). It would be good for the world if at least one did. Maybe it is time to buy shares in an electric car-builder...?

      General Fusion seems the coolest; steam driven pistons! :-)

      --
      Karma: Excellent (My Karma? I wish...:-( )
    2. Re:I'll cross my fingures harder for polywell then by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      Hmmm. "18-24 months" sounds like a round of funding to me. I'm 100% certain that the answer will either be "Yes, it will work" or "It might work. Please insert more credits to continue research."

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    3. Re:I'll cross my fingures harder for polywell then by DrWho520 · · Score: 1

      That is probably true, but their rounds of research cost $2M, not $2B. They are researching technology they do not fully understand, not building a machine they do not understand.

      --
      The cancel button is your friend. Do not hesitate to use it.
    4. Re:I'll cross my fingures harder for polywell then by dintech · · Score: 1

      Nearly all the worlds problems come down to energy!

      True. After free energy however, the bottleneck will eventually move to some other resource. Metals, plastics, water, food, space - something like that.

  7. French Fusion aka by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Freedom Fusion in the U.S.A.

    1. Re:French Fusion aka by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The USA must love France a lot as they have made Freedom synonymous with French :)

  8. Say What? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    What's wrong with those Frenchies? My gf and I produce plenty of fusion energy all the time.

  9. Not "French" by Liquid+Len · · Score: 5, Informative

    The title got it wrong: this is not a French experiment, but an international one which happens to take place in France. There's a difference...

    1. Re:Not "French" by krouic · · Score: 5, Funny

      When (if) the experiment is a success, it will become a "US led experiment".

    2. Re:Not "French" by who+knows+my+name · · Score: 1

      the I in ITER stands for international...

      --
      Nothing to see here.
    3. Re:Not "French" by segedunum · · Score: 1

      ...this is not a French experiment, but an international one which happens to take place in France. There's a difference...

      Clearly you haven't encountered the French. As long as something is based in France then it is French in their eyes, and that's all that matters to them. It's why there are two European parliaments - one in Brussels and one in Strasbourg that all the MEPs spend ridiculous amounts of money moving their stuff between, just to satisfy the French.

    4. Re:Not "French" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The title got it wrong: this is not a French experiment, but an international one which happens to take place in France. There's a difference...

      You don't get it, an experiment is International when it succeeds but French when it fails.

    5. Re:Not "French" by goldaryn · · Score: 1

      The title got it wrong: this is not a French experiment, but an international one which happens to take place in France. There's a difference...

      Merde! We give you suppositories and this is how you repay us!

    6. Re:Not "French" by Acer500 · · Score: 1

      When (if) the experiment is a success, it will become a "US led experiment".

      Actually, I've heard lots of grumbles about the US not funding / underfunding ITER.

      --
      There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
    7. Re:Not "French" by Late+Adopter · · Score: 5, Interesting

      That would be correct. ITER was slashed entirely from the '08 (I think?) budget, the first one passed after the Democrats got control back of Congress.

      Story goes, Democrats wanted to use their new-found power to add items from their party wishlist onto the budget. Bush gave a specific limit over which he threatened to veto. Instead of cutting back on new stuff, the Democrats had an overnight session and ransacked much of the pre-existing budget. That's also how Fermilab got into so much trouble, along with most of the DOE Office of Science (physical sciences) budget.

      I guarantee you there were maybe 5 overworked staffers going over the budget line by line trying to reach a number their bosses liked. "ITER?" "Never heard of it." "It says, fusion research" "Cut it.".

      Wouldn't you like to be the lobbyist who offers them a pizza?

    8. Re:Not "French" by Comatose51 · · Score: 1

      But it would definitely be a "French" problem if the thing blows up in a spectacular fashion.

      --
      EvilCON - Made Famous by /.
    9. Re:Not "French" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      mod that up

      There is some partisanship and a bit of speculation in the comment but the grain of truth is there. A fact is that the US fell from grace in the eyes of the Europeans and Asians after that budget and the chances of the US being in a leadership position in big international science in the future or a trusted partner is greatly harmed.

      I and others have been told off the record that the congressmen responsible were known and were pressured significantly after that though now the US is in a situation much like after the first Bush presidency where funding to big science without impact to many districts will suffer until the deficit and economic downturn can be controlled.

      I have decided to post anon for obvious reasons.

  10. And in other news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sounds suspicious to me. Read the whole FA and no mention of SAP..

  11. Re:Crazy to fund for something we have already by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Natural fusion energy is there everywhere, the sun provides plenty of energy for presently just a little more cost than usual
    methods. If we would invest even a fraction from what is spend there and in fission programs we would have already reduced the cost of solar electricity to what it will be anyway within 10-20yr.

    Big business and political powers dont like energy sources that are decentralized because they loose a way
    to control their power source, the population.

  12. overbudget, late, increase staffing by omz13 · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Why is it that most government projects always end up late and over budget? So much for getting the specs right, decent planning and project management, and PRINCE2, etc. And the bit that made me really chuckle, "increase in staffing to manage procurement". For crying out loud. Why not throw out the staff they currently have and get in people who are more efficient. Just throwing more people at the problem is not the solution. Of course, in these economically challenged times, one has to ask whether such gigantic projects are value for money. Why don't they do smaller less ambitious projects, which might actually produce something useful... but I suppose those big white elephants are always a great way of keeping a bunch of people employed.

  13. More like 2032 if you take into account... by assemblerex · · Score: 5, Funny

    the French 30 hour work week.

    1. Re:More like 2032 if you take into account... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1050 - don't forget the strikes.

    2. Re:More like 2032 if you take into account... by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      1050 - don't forget the strikes.

      The French have discovered time travel? Mon Dieu!

    3. Re:More like 2032 if you take into account... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      35 to 39 sorry...

  14. "EU10" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's EUR for the currency if that's what they're referring to with the 10 billion...

  15. 5 billion? Chump change! by jdigriz · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Seriously ,GM burnt through 5 billion in 3 months and we got bupkis for it. Costing only 5 billion extra over 20 years sounds pretty good to me if there's a chance we'll get fusion out of it. In fact, given unlimited funds, how much can we expedite this? We've spent hundreds of billions on banks that are worth less than nothing. Let's build some hardware!

    1. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by jamesh · · Score: 1

      In fact, given unlimited funds, how much can we expedite this?

      Clearly you haven't thought this through. If we had unlimited funds then we could just _buy_ all the oil we needed, and then send the excess CO2 into space.

      (listen carefully... you might hear a whooshing sound if you think i'm serious)

    2. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by r_jensen11 · · Score: 1

      We've spent hundreds of billions on banks that are worth less than nothing. Let's build some hardware!

      I'm so sick of hearing people saying this crap. The money the government "gave" to the banks is a loan, with an interest rate. It's an investment by the government, which the government expects to earn money on. Hell, 9 of the banks that the government lent money are willing to pay the money back now so that they don't have to pay additional interest.

      The vast majority of the institutions which got TARP money are NOT AIG.

    3. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by mzs · · Score: 1

      To be fair that money we loaned to the banks, GM, Chrysler, and AIG is money that we borrowed from China or will need to print later. I hope those we paid to repay their obligations, and I hope we repay our obligations, maybe we will even come out ahead, but it's not a sure thing by far.

    4. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And as the public is used to Really Big Numbers at the moment, they'd just shrug and say "okay, that doesnt sound like much", especially if you translate it into cost per year. So no problem there either - in that respect we live in a timeperiod conducive to large investments into long term ventures. Perhaps we should just create a fund for that sort of investment. I heard the name "Long Term Capital" was available so we'd have a well-known name too. And best of all, the public already knows its a sinkhole for large amounts of money :)

    5. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      If we had unlimited funds then we could just _buy_ all the oil we needed

      Not so. There's a finite supply of oil in the world, and an infinite amount of demand (given enough time, of course). At some point you will not be able to buy enough oil, no matter how much money you are willing to pay.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    6. Re:5 billion? Chump change! by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      (listen carefully... you might hear a whooshing sound if you think i'm serious)

      Dammit -- of course I didn't read this bit until after I replied.

      Please ignore me, I'm an idiot....

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  16. News at 11 by segedunum · · Score: 1

    Trying to turn theoretical ideas into concrete practical projects is expensive. Damn expensive. However, if anything concrete at all comes out of it then the payoffs are going to be almost infinite.

  17. Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The idea of fusion and benefits of fusion are tremendous compared to fossil fuels but I've always wondered how long will it last before it starts eating a significant enough portion of the hydrogen to be a concern. (Or possibly when the helium concentration will become high enough to be a concern.) I imagine that we have enough reserves of hydrogen in the oceans it won't be a concern for many many many years to come but it is an interesting thought experiment.

    Ultimately the only "safe" power sources are those that derive their energy from external sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and wave power; all of which are powered by the sun's energy and/or gravitational interaction with outside sources (aka moon). Granted eventually the sun will run out of hydrogen and we won't be able to use it as an outside source of energy. As long as we're burning things that have a finite source in the closed system of the planet we'll eventually run out or pay some unforseen consequences (Global Warming).

    Not exactly the largest concern when it comes to alternative power but still and interesting topic to think about.

    -Lifyre

    --
    I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    1. Re:Fusion by legallyillegal · · Score: 0

      All things are finite.

      --
      ?giS
    2. Re:Fusion by wjh31 · · Score: 4, Informative

      to provide 1TW for 1 year would require about a cubic meter of water based on the proton proton chain. ~25MeV per 6 hydrogens, means 75000 moles of water at 50% efficieny to produce 1TWyr, 0.018kg/mole means about a 1000kg ballpark. Wiki lists global power consumption at about 15TW, so even if you allow much lower efficay, and energy costs to extract hydrogen from the water etc, its concievable that your local swimming pool could power the world for a couple of years

    3. Re:Fusion by Cyberax · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "The idea of fusion and benefits of fusion are tremendous compared to fossil fuels but I've always wondered how long will it last before it starts eating a significant enough portion of the hydrogen to be a concern."

      If your fusion powerplants are eating a significant portion of Earth's hydrogen, then it's time to relocate somewhere where the temperature is not high enough to boil oceans.

    4. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 2, Interesting

      How much more difficult using a H-H reaction would be instead of a D-D reation or a D-T reaction as is used currently? D is moderately abundant in the oceans (something like .015%). My math skills are very rustly after 5 years of not using them at all.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    5. Re:Fusion by mako1138 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Pretty darned difficult:

      Even at temperatures in the sun's core, 15,000,000 Kelvins or 27,000,000 Fahrenheit, the average lifetime of a proton against pp fusion is about 8,000,000,000 years.

      http://www.tim-thompson.com/fusion.html

    6. Re:Fusion by TheRaven64 · · Score: 5, Informative

      I think you have some difficulties understanding scale. Let's take a look at an example fusion reaction, combining two deuterium atoms into tritium and a proton (note: This only occurs in 50% of deuterium-deuterium fusion reactions, but the numbers are similar for the other outcome, helium and a neutron). Deuterium has a molar mass of 2.01410178, trituim has 3.0160492, and a proton has 1.00727646677. That means, fusing two moles of deuterium gives a net mass change of 0.00487789323g. You can get the energy released from this directly by plugging it into e=mc^2 (ignoring momentum for this back-of-an-envelope calculation). The output is around 4.4e11 J. The current global energy consumption is around 5e20 J. To get this amount of energy from deuterium fusion, you would need to burn around 2e9 moles of deuterium per year.

      2e9 moles sounds like a lot, but it's only around 1.1e9g, or 1.1e3 tonnes. It's around Deuterium is a naturally-occurring isotope of Hydrogen, and accounts for around 0.015% of all hydrogen. Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, accounting for about 75% of the total mass. 76% of the Earth's surface is covered with water. How much water would you need to get this much deuterium?

      The molar mass of water is 18.0153, so you need 18.0153g for one mole, which contains two moles of hydrogen. We need just under 6667 moles of hydrogen to get one mole of deuterium, so we need about 1e13 moles of water. Now we're at some big numbers, around 2.4e11 kg of water. Because the density of water is roughly 1g:1cm^3, that's around 2.4e8m^3.

      Still sounds like a lot? The volume of Earth's oceans is around 1.4e18m^3. At our current energy consumption rate, it would take around 5.7e9 years to burn it all. Note that this is longer than the current age of the Earth. Note also that this would only have a tiny effect on the oceans even after using all of the deuterium, since we would only be removing 0.015% of the hydrogen.

      Of course, these are just rough figures. Fusion efficiency is likely to be low enough that we've only got enough readily-accessible deuterium for a few tens or hundreds of millions of years. It's a short-term solution, but only in as far as staying living on a single planet around a single star is.

      Or possibly when the helium concentration will become high enough to be a concern.

      This is even more funny. The reason helium is so expensive is because it floats to the top of the atmosphere and is lost to space if you release it. Having helium as a by-product of fusion would be nice, as it's currently in relatively short supply. Unlike other wastes, it's trivial to dispose of. Just let it into the atmosphere, and a short while later the solar winds will scatter it into interstellar space. It's sufficiently valuable that you probably don't want to do that, however.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    7. Re:Fusion by mako1138 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Thinking about it a bit more, in comparison, the ideal temperature for DT fusion is 15 keV = 174,000,000 K. I don't know what the pp fusion cross section vs temperature looks like, but since it's not in the tables of the NRL Plasma Formulary it's probably not worth pursuing.

    8. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      Wow. Interesting, useful, and mildly disheartening information. No badge though cause you didn't use both absolute scales. Granted the difference between F and R (or C and K) at millions of degrees is silly.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    9. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      Ok you can have that badge now.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    10. Re:Fusion by imsabbel · · Score: 1

      But then again, the reaction rate goes up with the power of 28 or something of the temperture... (sorry, dont know it by heart. Just remembering that a few million kelvin can make the difference between "last till the end of the time" and "woooooshhh" :). Carbon cycle is even worse...

      --
      HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
    11. Re:Fusion by Ihlosi · · Score: 2, Insightful
      If your fusion powerplants are eating a significant portion of Earth's hydrogen, then it's time to relocate somewhere where the temperature is not high enough to boil oceans.

      Boil oceans? If fusion powerplants are eating a significant portion of Earths hydrogen, then it's time to apply SPF 10^50 ASAP and get off this fscking ball of plasma as fast as you can.

    12. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      So even if we double (projected to happen from 1980 to 2030) or triple our energy demands the answer is a damn long time.

      While I knew helium floated to the top of the atmosphere and thats why it's expensive I was unaware it was lost to space so thank you for that tidbit.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    13. Re:Fusion by Prof.Phreak · · Score: 1

      Well, many thousands of years from now, when we start to run out of hydrogen (oceans are big) for our fusion plants, we might just start fusing helium. Think of "hydrogen" as being the first easiest stepping stone... but everything upto Iron can be fused :-)

      By the time hydrogen runs out, we'd likely be burning through the gasses of Jupiter, and looking for other solar systems to colonise.

      --

      "If anything can go wrong, it will." - Murphy

    14. Re:Fusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about if we exponentially grow our energy demands at a rate of 1.39 percent per year?

    15. Re:Fusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Very informative post. But I expect it would be increasingly difficult to extract the deuterium as it's used up. Sometime a few hundred million years from now they'll be looking for that last atom among all the oceans and lakes of the world...

    16. Re:Fusion by EvilBudMan · · Score: 1

      --The idea of fusion and benefits of fusion are tremendous compared to fossil fuels but I've always wondered how long will it last before it starts eating a significant enough portion of the hydrogen to be a concern---

      What! that is the most abundant chemical there is. By that time think antimatter.

      --Ultimately the only "safe" power sources are those that derive their energy from external sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and wave power; all of which are powered by the sun's energy and/or gravitational interaction with outside sources (aka moon).--

      Technically all power is from the sun even fossil fuels. Without the sun, how would all of those plants have formed to make coal for instance? Nothing is completely safe but if a fusion reactor goes bad the reaction simply stops. I would be more worried about the materials that are bombarded with neutrons.

      How much pollution is caused by making solar panels? There are a lot of carbon based solvents used in those processes. AND all of that stuff doesn't give you base load power except maybe geothermal. Wind and solar ARE under developed here when they are subsidizing 10% ethanol from corn in our gas. They should subsidize solar panels for those farmers fields instead. It would be cheaper. All that green stuff helps but in the end you need 2000 megawatt power stations that can be run continually unless you want to build a shitload of batteries to carry your green power when the sun don't shine, wind don't blow, etc. How much is the environmental impact of that? Nukes aren't perfect but seem to be the least bad of a choice that should be made very fast before we run out of oil. Coal will take a while longer but damn it is real nasty stuff.

    17. Re:Fusion by Ecuador · · Score: 1

      I guess mods today are sub-high school level in physics. Ok, the amusing worries about helium concentrations and hydrogen exhaustion were already addressed. I just wanted to point that at least one of your "safe" power sources, hydroelectric power, is quite destructive for the environment in more than one ways (disrupts local ecosystems, sometimes leads to CH4 & CO2 emmissions...). Wind power is not as bad (well, it mostly poses a danger for birds who pass by), however it is not such a great power source if you look at how much each turbine produces...

      --
      Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS
    18. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      Safe was in regards to running out of resources. Hydro is very destructive as you mentioned, solar is extremely messy to make, wind is a bird blender, and I'm sure there will be some interesting negative side effects of using wave power.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    19. Re:Fusion by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      Just one question (great post, btw.): in the reaction you mention, tritium is produced (and hydrogen). Tritium itself is easily fusible, if I'm not mistaken, so basically you could go on and do another fusion step that would (I'm totally out of my depth here) helium. I guess this would add to the total energy produced?

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    20. Re:Fusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And that's just one possible fusion reaction. There are more exotic ones, such as using Helium-3 (which there is little of on Earth, but thought to be proportionally vast quantities on the moon, enough to make it actually economical for missions there). A H3 reaction is almost completely clean; the biproduct is just a proton. However, there are downsides too, such as higher temperatures needed, etc.

      There are also hybrid fusion-fission breeder reactors proposed, in which the energetic biproducts are used to directly re-enrich spent conventional fuel.

      I went to grad school for Nuclear Engineering, but I've completely abandoned the field. Nothing but bureaucracy, politics, public ignorance and misinformation, and lack of funding. Good riddance.

    21. Re:Fusion by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      That was one possible direction for my studies. I'm glad I didn't go that direction at all. My reasons were due to a personal desire to get out of school for a while but it makes me glad to know I didn't miss too much.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    22. Re:Fusion by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Tritium isn't produced in the reaction I discussed, I actually glossed over a few things. Fusing deuterium has a 50% probability of producing helium or tritium. I only calculated the energy output for the helium-producing version. I imagine the tritium-producing outcome generates a similar amount of energy, but without bothering to do the maths let's assume it produces none and so we have to divide the energy output by two.

      Tritium can be fused, and is slightly easier than deuterium. If you can fuse deuterium, I don't imagine that you would want to fuse tritium because it is too valuable. While deuterium is stable, and quite a boring isotope, tritium has a half life of about 12 years and decays emitting a beta particle and, most importantly, no gamma radiation. As an active beta emitter, it is very interesting for betavoltaics. You can use it to power low-drain applications for several years. It an also be used to make things glow for a similar length of time by combining it with a phosphor (the brightness, roughly, halves ever 12 years). Being able to mass-produce tritium makes a lot of interesting things possible.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    23. Re:Fusion by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      Hey, I didn't even think about tritium for betavoltaics! I mean, I knew about it, but in this context it didn't come to my mind that tritium would be valuable and hence not used for fusion.

      Incidently, I'm (partly) in the implantable energy sources field (in MEMS), so this topic is extremely exciting to me. However, I like to think that the ultimate solution are the various energy scavenging devices, which could be implanted and left in the body till for the person's lifetime. Various single-chamber fuel cells, micro-thermopiles and mechanical energy scavengers. Etc. (including tech not yet invented :o) )

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
  18. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by craklyn · · Score: 1

    The French get it pretty good. First, the money came from many nations and not just France. Second, the money spent on this will largely get redistributed to the local economy. This point would be much stronger if you focused on countries who paid in but did not get to run the experiment.

  19. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    ...the Superconducting Supercollider...

    ...billions of francs...

    And that's just the obvious errors in your two line comment.

  20. solving the problem is not the goal by Shivetya · · Score: 1

    the governments and special interest groups don't want the problem solved. When it is "solved" then all the regulatory structure and special fees/taxes won't have application. The lose revenue and control over other people.

    Look, we have known for a long time in the US that Nuclear power when done right is great for the environment. Yet at every corner it was shot down by one group or another. I have been watching Georgia Power trying to spin up two new nuclear reactors and it took years just to get it to the PSC and be allowed to price it out. Now they are past the point of being allowed to bill for them reactors they must fight to get them started. I seriously doubt they will get these two new reactors on line.

    When control and tax (read cap and trade) comes along people are going to see their electrical bills skyrocket. Yet where will the base load power supply come from? Coal. There are no alternatives to it. My county spend almost a decade just to build a reservoir for drink water, I cannot imagine what it would take for to get one large enough for power generation.

    So again, we have technologies to fix the problem, we even have the money, but the powers that be and the groups supporting them don't want it fixed. They need the problem to guilt and control.

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    1. Re:solving the problem is not the goal by Rogerborg · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yet where will the base load power supply come from? Coal.

      Bullshit - it'll come from clean coal. That's completely different, because it's been... polished.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    2. Re:solving the problem is not the goal by EvilBudMan · · Score: 1

      They could terraform Mars with coal. We just have to build taller smokestacks to send the CO2 in that direction.

  21. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Richard_at_work · · Score: 3, Insightful

    People used to say the same about Hubble... Personally, I like the fact that Governments put money into pure-science research, because no one else is likely to.

    Fusion, if ever successful, is likely to revolutionise our society, and the only way its ever going to be successful is if investment is made.

    What for-profit company is likely to make a multi-billion dollar investment that, even discounting the possibility of failure, it is unlikely to see any chance of a return on for 40 years? The only industries I can think that make billion dollar investments are shipmakers and aircraft manufacturers, and their planned ROI period is much less than 40 years.

  22. IFR by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    This is why America needs to re-build the IFR. It may be very important.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:IFR by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 1

      We should be building IFR style plants even if Polywell fusion works out in the next couple of years.

      For no other reason than to have somewhere to dispose of the enormous amount of nuclear waste that has been and continues to be generated from conventional nuclear plants. Almost the entirety of that "waste" can be used as fuel in these reactors, rather than sitting in ponds where it will inevitably bite us in the ass.

      The true waste from an IFR is very minimal and easily managed, the plants are passively safe, and the reprocessing is proliferation proof.

    2. Re:IFR by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      My God, yes, imagine if Jacques Foreigner were the first to produce cheap abundant power. What a nightmare world that would be for our children to live in; better to drown them at birth.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    3. Re:IFR by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      ????? eh? My post is about the fact that fusion appears to be taking long and longer. Far better to build a known item and continue the research into Fusion (that all major countries currently participate in). So, you have an issue that consider those working on iter to be foreigners? Obviously, you are not from Canada, Australia, EU, USA, South Korea, China, or Russia. SO where are you from?

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  23. rising costs by astralpancakes · · Score: 1

    With rising costs of fossil fuels (and by extension, manufacture and transport, and by extension, materials), the costs are likely to rise even further before it's completed. Which is why it would be so essential to get ITER done on time -- we're lucky to get even one shot at developing fusion power, before industrial civilization beings to creak at the seams because of a shortage of cheap energy.

  24. wrong aproach by Zashi · · Score: 1

    I think this super expensive design is the wrong approach to fusion and that this guy is on the right track. This is assuming, of course, that fusion can work as a power source.

    --
    Skiffy is Spiffy, but Ort is tort.
    1. Re:wrong aproach by jamesh · · Score: 1

      Gah!!! My eyes!!!

      If I wanted to read stuff like that I'd sit in a waiting room at a doctors surgery and browse the Readers Digests.

  25. Re:Moon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Has anyone done the maths on the effect of taking power extracted from tides on the orbit of the moon? If we take too much tidal power might the moon be drawn into a downward spiral crashing into the Earth?

  26. Re:Moon by TangoCharlie · · Score: 1

    I'd be more worried about taking too much energy from the Gulf Stream, therefore depriving Northerm Europe of its warm water, plunging us into a man-made Ice Age. Solves the global warming issue though!

    --
    return 0; }
  27. Things that make you go 'Hmmm...' by Drakkenmensch · · Score: 1

    gaps in the original design

    I read this as "nobody has any idea how the fusion power technology is supposed to work yet."

    1. Re:Things that make you go 'Hmmm...' by jamesh · · Score: 1

      gaps in the original design

      I read this as "nobody has any idea how the fusion power technology is supposed to work yet."

      1. Invest Money
      2. ????
      3. Fusion / Profit

      Sure there are gaps, but we're already 2/3 of the way there and I'm sure that someone around here knows what step 2 is.

    2. Re:Things that make you go 'Hmmm...' by mako1138 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The main issues for ITER are in the realm of plasma physics and materials science.

      Currently, ITER is predicted to work based on arguments from "wind-tunnel scaling": make it bigger and certain figures of merit improve. This scaling is based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), but until the darn thing is built there's no way to know for sure whether the predictions are correct. Furthermore, there are "advanced modes" that aren't fully understood from a theoretical standpoint.

      The "first wall", the inside wall of the vacuum vessel, is the thorniest problem in terms of materials. It has to both withstand an intense neutron flux, and avoid sloughing off bits that contaminate the plasma. Similar requirements are necessary for the "divertors", which sit in contact with the plasma and kind of hold it in place.

      It's important to note that the ITER project is not just the reactor; the associated International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility is key to resolving these tough questions. We've come through the Space Age with some pretty neat materials, but compared to what's required for fusion, they look like child's play.

  28. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by jcr · · Score: 1

    I like the fact that Governments put money into pure-science research, because no one else is likely to.

    It does not follow that because government funds something, that it would not happen if the government were not the source of the funding.

    -jcr

    --
    The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  29. Shouldn't this be "plasmaware" not "vapourware"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    :P

  30. Re:Moon by frith01 · · Score: 1

    Let me introduce you to a new concept, it's called waves reaching the beach. Energy is reduced when the waves reach the beach.
    If we extract that energy instead, there is no net change in energy distribution at a planetary scale.

    Additionally, the moon is actually departing earth orbit, just very slowly. ( 1-3 inches / year) , so no global moon imact is imminent

  31. Why the buzz? by Rivabem · · Score: 1

    a) "is the power of the future and always will be.
    b) "five years later than what had been previously agreed to"
    c) "will cost even more than the seven parties in the project first thought"

    Have they never used Java...?

  32. The DEMO plant won't start up in 2033 then by distantbody · · Score: 1

    probably an optimistic start year anyway.

    DEMO

    Might give some time for development of the superior stellarator design to catch up to tokamaks, but perhaps time-scale of decades lend themselves to development hell.

  33. French Fromage Experiment Also Delayed .. by UncleWilly · · Score: 1

    The French revolt!

  34. When I was in my teens... by Kupfernigk · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Fusion power was expected to have replaced nuclear by the year 2000. It's now 2009, and it's still more than 30 years in the future. A slippage of one year per year consistently for the last 40 years does not bode well.

    Also when I was in my teens, those of us doing physics and chemistry at our school were encouraged to do the radiation physics and radiation chemistry options because this would career proof us. It was just so obvious that nuclear power would completely replace coal. Unfortunately all those other kids planning to do arts degrees regressed into NIMBYs.

    Personally I think we should stop pissing about, build a new generation of standardised U/Pu reactors and put the development effort into thorium reactors. That will buy us time, lots of time, since thorium is plentiful, in which we may be able to have an advanced society while we sort out fusion. Spending billions on a lot of "ifs" looks like engineer willy-waggling, especially when we have other technologies that actually work.

    Meanwhile the Russians are talking about 70MW floating conventional reactors based on their icebreaker technology to open up the Arctic. At this rate, they'll be selling power on demand to the world while the West is still trying to get a net energy gain from fusion. Being sexy does not make a technology valid or useful.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:When I was in my teens... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Fusion power was expected to have replaced nuclear

      Really? I don't think that was actually the expectation.

      we may be able to have an advanced society while we sort out fusion

      How advanced does it have to be, before we call it advanced?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:When I was in my teens... by careysub · · Score: 1

      Fusion power was expected to have replaced nuclear by the year 2000. It's now 2009, and it's still more than 30 years in the future. A slippage of one year per year consistently for the last 40 years does not bode well.

      The situation is actually much worse than this. Controlled thermonuclear research began in the 1950s with Project Sherwood, at that time it was expected that fusion power was a problem that would be cracked in ten years. Around 1970, it was expected that commercial fusion power would be on line in 2000 (i.e. 30 years). Right now no projections have a commercial plant operating before about 2050 (i.e. 40 years). So the time until commercial fusion power is a strictly increasing function if time.

      But maybe there is room for optimism since the rate of increase seems to be declining....

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  35. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Richard_at_work · · Score: 1

    Name one other funding source that is willing to commit to billions of dollars over a very long period - charities and trusts certainlyt won't, and as I noted before corporations are highly unlikely to. So what are we left with?

    On that note, where is the funding from Greenpeace et al for this sort of research?

  36. France & Italy - same politics problems by marco69v · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    The problem behind this notice is indeed the fact that mr Sarcozy has signed a contract with Mr Berlusconi where France will build 5 nuclear station in Italy ! how can they approve a test with fusion with that econo/politcs/dictorial contract !?

  37. Then, instead of calling it French Fusion, . . . by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

    . . . it should be called Freedom Fusion???

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
  38. Whats wrong with this? by allcoolnameswheretak · · Score: 1

    Once this technology is properly developed, it means virtually unlimited energy for humankind and a very big step towards solving our environmental issues. I don't get it why there isn't already massive investment into this and why governments are bitching about a cost measured in single-digit billions - peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

  39. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by SpinyNorman · · Score: 1

    Well, we're talking tens if not ultimately hundreds of billions here, which makes a big difference.

    That said, if we're only talking billions, how about the $6 billion Microsoft spent developing Vista. Heck, Microsoft spend about $1.5 billion a year just in advertizing!

  40. omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

    Guess which industry has given a nice big check to someone on that team to keep things from happening....yes you have 3 guesses but the first 2 don't count, take your time.....need a clue...it's the same industry that as soon as they heard any type of new engine coming out that could run on compressed water and get more miles to the gallon, bought up the copyright and placed that engine in storage until the day we would never use ..... for our cars again......yes you guessed it!

    1. Re:omfg by jcnnghm · · Score: 1

      The tinfoil is cutting off the circulation to your brain.

      --
      You don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. - Winston Churchill
    2. Re:omfg by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      As jcnnghm said, you need to adjust the tinfoil. And make sure it's not lead laced foil from China.

      1. Water doesn't compress. You're probably thinking about compressed air
      2. Compressed air is a known science. After all, we've been running tools off it since before we had good electric motors.
      3. Energy density and efficiency, sadly, are lacking. Both in compressing in the first place and extracting it later.
      4. A container capable of holding enough air volume for significant travel is huge, heavy, and expensive. Also dangerous in an accident.
      5. Patents are out in the open. Buying and burying the patent would only buy 7 years before it's open sourced and anybody can build one.
      6. Compressed air wouldn't really have a 'mpg' that corresponds to gasoline or diesel usage. Same with electric vehicles. They're so different that any comparison that depends on 'equivalent to X mpg' are so abstract to be almost useless. What do you go by? Energy? 90% efficient electric vehiles don't need that much energy. Cost? The battery depreciation raises costs substantially if it's included. What do you pay per gallon of gasoline, and what do you pay per kwh?

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    3. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      Really, here is a link of a few engines that never made it because of multitude of reasons Ford and the rest of the "oil sponsored" companies created to avoid production!!!
      http://www.spiritofmaat.com/archive/feb2/bird.htm
      This may well be a small website, but google all the info, and you will see the list keeps growing!

    4. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      As i posted for him, I will repost for you, before shooting someone down, make sure you know what your saying... http://www.spiritofmaat.com/archive/feb2/bird.htm
      'nuff said!!

    5. Re:omfg by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Read it, don't believe it for a number of reasons.

      1. Vague
      2. Imprecise estimates
      3. Mentions stuff that violates the laws of thermodynamics - specifically with the electric motors. Alternators cost drag to get their power, and because they're not 100% efficient, said drag is greater than the power gained. Basically, regenerative braking works because you're getting rid of the energy tied into momentum anyways. You don't want to run 4 alternators to charge the battery when you're cruising. Or the system was an early case of regenerative braking, and since it was invented before I was born, either it doesn't work or at least isn't economical. Or is already implimented in a modernized way, and therefore
      4. 'Batteries acting as capacitors' - WTF?
      5. Hydrogen power - we've known how to turn water into O2 and H2 for centuries. Efficiency - that's a problem. Oh, and most of the water schemes are actually hydrogen schemes.
      6. Steam - I'm a fan of the Doble steam car. Great ideas, just, well, efficiencies - cost and mpg are on a razor edge.

      Need I go on?

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    6. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      So you have a reputable engineering degree to be able to come close
      to discredit any of the engines represented at that link?

    7. Re:omfg by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Science degree, actually.

      The engineering degree wouldn't come out to play until actual engineering made an appearance.

      Sigh...

      Somebody piped up that they'd been working on a solar-powered car out at the local airport.

      1. An EV takes about 1kwh to go 1 mile.
      2. The sun's power on the surface is ~ 1.4kW/m^2.
      3. Average footprint of a car: Honda Civic: 4.5Mx1.4M, surface area: 6.5m^2, being generous. No loss for windows, the car's covered in solar panels, etc...
      Math:
      40mph@1kwh/mile = 40kwh/hour = 40 kw needed.
      6.5m^2*1.4kW/m^2 = 9kW, assuming 100% effective solar cells. More likely 1.8-2.7kw assuming real world 20-30% efficient cells.

      So the solar cells are producing ~6% of the power necessary for the car. Even with batteries, you'd need 16-17 hours of sun for every hour of operation. You'd be better off putting the panels on your roof and feeding to the grid then using the grid to charge your electric car, than to risk the expensive and fragile cells in an accident.

      As for the $5 of 'fuel' to get it started, I have no clue. What kind of fuel is it? Heck, I don't even know if they're proposing using electric solar panels. It could be a solar steam engine for all I know, but the energy requirements are the same, and a solar steam engine would present efficiency problems of it's own, especially on a mobile platform(basically, solar steam scales up well, it's best used for huge, static, power production plants).

      Do you agree with my math? Is there something missing? Competition solar 'cars' work by weighing less than go carts, operating in a desert during the summer(and hoping for no clouds), having low maximum speeds, extreme profiling, limited to the driver, no cargo room, little to no considerations for safety in a crash. Which wouldn't work for a 'family commuter'.

      Do you have a specific proposal in that page you'd like for me to comment on? Keep in mind on any 'patent suppression' that patents expire, and to get one requires people to register that idea. After the expiration, anybody can take the patent documentation to build their own device.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    8. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      Ok, you have peaked my interest, I will truly converse with you. I may not have a degree, but what I have is far more superior...let's take a gander shall we....

      I am aware that certain patents are actually there with prototypes that look like they are supposed to work, but don't really...just to establish that patent. So now that we know this, we can rule out a few of those "theoretical" engines.

      As for the solar car, I do agree it is far probable the math was not up to par( being the market back then was not as strong as today's in that field) Being in touch with ICP global, I am aware of a few ongoing solar techniques. Of these many new techniques, with more efficiency on the power genereation and storage, as well as no true electric car is purely just solar....you need to plug in as well, the solar part is purely to extend the life of the battery.

      There is a new silicno based paint that absorbs the solar energy put out by the sun, and should this paint be applied to cover 100% of the car as opposed to a partial tally of the car, you get a much improved power production.

      Combining these new technologies would still end up with a fortified version of the same patent, thereby, constituting the need for these patents in the beginning. If the car does not fully work except to pass a patent test....then the proto-type is there for that.

      Ok, we both agree the proto type is not as efficient as today's market, but that is one of the many cars that have been mentioned in that article. How about i give you an idea off the top of my head...for a car that runs itself with almost no power source other then momentum.
      Kinetic energy. You hear me.....with all the levers and pulleys, it is possible to get a watch to run with no battery....you just need to wind it once in a while...so let's say that we could develop efficiency in establishing the system needed to run 12 alternators...or maybe even 20 alternators on the same car, using these gears and lever methods...so now you have a self powered car per say, with a battery that charges as you move....the more you move the more energy you reproduce.

      The idea is simple, yet the patent exists and no one is pushing the technology, imagine we don't even need solar energy. So I ask you, no....I implore you to show me proof otherwise, when the car industry has pushed its technology to the edge to develop the most economical car....
      when has Ford, brought out a motor that gets 500miles to the gallon.....why do we always hear only some underground development, when Frd having 1gazillion engineers at their disposal, can only come up with something once Obama has a gun to their heads?

      Simple...money...they get kickbacks from the oil companies by pushing oil driven cars.
      Why do we still bring out big SUVs when we keep talking about global warming and new energy source being a must....because someone on top is still taking in money in their back pocket, just like when someone comes out with an engine that takes 2litres of water and recycles the water it uses...
      steam....can make an engine go for miles....yet we don't hear Ford working on steam engines....
      even though water is the most plentiful source we have.

      Last though, before you again try to turn me down.....for whatever agenda you might have...
      I run 5 miles a day, I play drums, I have dogs, I enjoy life...and I do enjoy my work.
      I have no reason to be bitter, I have no reason to poison the earth with venom, I only want
      to speak out against opposition to options. We are being given know by a self absorbed industry.
      GM files for bankruptcy yet gave their CEOs 20million in bonuses, why...did they deserve it?
      I don't think so, but in the end, GM is not really interested in the people, the same GM you seem to try and defend from my accusations....I live for technology and evolution..and see the bright future we have ahead, yet people in charge like these CEOs are what is keeping us lagging behind.

      Do you not agree?

    9. Re:omfg by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      you need to plug in as well, the solar part is purely to extend the life of the battery.

      Like some of the proposed vehicles that put a panel up on the roof to run the AC? While not capable of keeping up with speeds approaching 40mph, much less the 65-75 I'd require for a standard commuter*, said solar panel could indeed provide a 'cripple charge' allowing you to creep somewhere where there's a power outlet. On the other hand, so couldn't a tow truck with a beefy alternator. Or a hefty deep cycle battery you 'jump' into the system.

      And remember - I figured on covering the entire car with them when I made my area calculation. Cell placement wouldn't be optimal for power generation; you'd have to compromise to keep your windows usable, have decent aerodynamics, etc... Going paint on wouldn't get you any more surface area. You'd still be better putting the panels or paint up on your roof.

      On to the paint itself - what's the efficiency? This site suggests 6%, with a maximum of 30% - which would be what I figured when doing my calculations. You see, I was being generous to the solar cells. Basically, by making the initial estimate generous, you determine whether the idea is worth a closer look.

      Combining an EV with solar panels isn't normally going to be patent worthy. What would be worthy of a patent is if you came up with a new twist in the interfacing of the two. IE you designed a new charging system or some such. It would be 'engineering' in that you're actually working out the specifics and necessary design parameters.

      How about i give you an idea off the top of my head...for a car that runs itself with almost no power source other then momentum.

      One word: Flywheel. We're working on them. The issue is keeping the mass/weight down. If you drop the weight, you can compensate by increasing the rotation speed of the flywheel - 2X the velocity = 4X the energy. Thing is, interesting things happen if a flywheel breaks at 100k RPM. And by 'interesting', I mean 'explosive'. And at 100k rpm the flywheel is under a LOT of stress. It gets interesting(read: Expensive) trying to build a flywheel capable of lasting under those strains. When you're trying to replace the energy of a gas tank, even if you only need a third of the energy because your motor is 90+ percent efficient, you're talking about quite a bit of energy. At least gasoline is limited in it's burn rate to oxygen availability. A broken flywheel is quite happy to discharge all of it's energy at once, regardless of the situation. And you're looking at half a dozen to a dozen sticks of dynamite worth of energy.

      The problem with comparing a car to a wound watch is that a watch only needs to move two or three hands and maybe a few date wheels. The energy demands are small. A car, on the other hand has a number of spots where energy is lost. You have engine losses, accessory losses(using your headlights, for example, increases the drag the alternator puts on the engine), rolling friction(train tracks have less friction, thus lower fuel consumption per mile), and air drag friction. It takes a significant amount of energy to satisfy all these demands and keep the car moving. Internal combustion engines didn't become dominant because they're efficient, they became dominant because their fuel source is relatively, both incredibly dense and cheap. Around 40mph, air friction becomes the biggest drain.

      we could develop efficiency in establishing the system needed to run 12 alternators...or maybe even 20 alternators on the same car, using these gears and lever methods...so now you have a self powered car per say, with a battery that charges as you move....the more you move the more energy you reproduce.

      Ohhhhkaaay... This is something of a head banger. You're basically talking about a perpetual motion machine, and they don't w

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    10. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      Well you seem to have taken some time to google alot more information this time, then the last, I give you points on that. BTW the paint is actually now more efficient as they have newly discovered
      a type of alloy that allows you more absorbancy from the sun's output. This you can google too.

      I am glad to hear you stand behind your points, it is too often we see people buckle under pressure.
      I stand by what I said, I do truly believe there is a HUMONGOUS wrap over what really happens behind closed doors with the oil companies and the rest of the globe. Bush comes to mind when I think of this, for the simple reason that he showed us he was behind making the oil companies all the money, being that most of them were all his friends, even to the point of seeing his visiting the saudi families.

      Please do not let me think you are so naive as not to believe that the Saudies that have more money then you can count... (and that's saying something), would not give money through dummy corporations to invest into the motor companies, it happens all the time...it is called cross trading. Scratch my back....and my friend will scratch yours.

      Good luck with your endeavors, I do not have more time then this to invest for this particular post. I am minimal with the time I have when i go on /. You have made many good points,
      and I hope you continue to offer your valued opinions in these posts.

      Keep up the good work.
       

    11. Re:omfg by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      BTW the paint is actually now more efficient as they have newly discovered a type of alloy that allows you more absorbancy from the sun's output. This you can google too.

      Could you please quote the source? That's what I try to do when I quote specific figures. I'm not making a professional paper, so I don't do a great deal of quality control on it, but I try.

      On the conspiracy side - I believe that economics and inertia explain our system far more than conspiracy theories. Visiting the Saudis? Most presidents do that.

      Economics wise - solar panels, and the associated subsystems, are just too expensive. Wind turbines scale up well, so they're best installed in large farms by professionals. The only problem with EVs is that their batteries are too expensive. LiIon was around $1 a watt/hour when I first checked a couple years ago, it's closer to $.25/wh. Problem? That's still $250 per kwh, or $25k for a battery capable of going 100 miles on a charge(most cars will get ~300 miles/tank). Even at $4/gallon gasoline, that's 6,250 gallons of gasoline, or 188k miles for a 30mpg gasoline vehicle. Even if you lease it for 5% of the value per year*, that's $1250 per year, or over 9k miles per year. What am I getting at? Gasoline is *cheap*, even at $4/gallon.

      Current hybrids have both a smaller battery - less than a dozen miles, typically, and use NiMH, which is ~half the price. Problem being, they're more than twice as heavy for the capacity and are less efficient at charging. Switching out a hybrid's NiMH battery with a LiIon and the appropriate associated programing and you should pick up a few more mpg. Of course, current mainstream LiIon has a shorter lifespan than NiMH, though LiFePO4 promises to fix this and drop the cost even more. Lithium Iron batteries start out with lower capacity, but keep it so much better that they generally have more real capacity left after a year.

      Please do not let me think you are so naive as not to believe that the Saudies that have more money then you can count... (and that's saying something), would not give money through dummy corporations to invest into the motor companies, it happens all the time...it is called cross trading. Scratch my back....and my friend will scratch yours.

      I can count quite high my friend... Still, I would not want to be the accountant figuring out some Saudi prince's net worth. Again, there's no need for the conspiracy. The Saudis do what they do quite openly - mainly working to keep the price of oil at a level high enough to make them money hand over fist and low enough that people don't find alternatives.

      Would the auto companies still be going broke if they were subsidized by the Saudies? Why should they engage in mysterious bribes, where they have to get every major auto/engine manufacturer in every country, when open market manipulation is both cheaper and more effective in that it affects entire industries.

      Still, I'd like to know, do you at least realize now why the 'multitude of alternators' idea isn't going to work?

      *And this would be a heavily subsidized rate, that'd be for something that'd last 20 years. LiIon would be between 5-10.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    12. Re:omfg by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      I wont post any links, for any of the solar stuff, as most of them (actually all) are usually sited on this website. As for the differences between solar vs. wind turbine, you do not site any links as to where you get your information from either, but as it stands I do not have any more time to discuss this issue, I would prefer spending my time reading up on the things you say are out there...

  41. Relax... by ghetto2ivy · · Score: 1

    They probably just ran out of baguettes & wine.

  42. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Richard_at_work · · Score: 1

    Ok, Microsoft spent $6billion developing Vista - what was their planned 'Return On Investment' period for that money? A decade? Less? Quite probably no more than 5 years.

    Compare that to the timescale for the ITER - ~ $12billion over 30 years (2006 program initiation, 10 year build cycle, 20 year operation). And thats not counting cost and timescale overruns. And thats assuming there is likely to be an ROI on that investment...

    Would Microsoft have spent $6billion investing in a product if they were unlikely to start to see even a start on ROI for 15 years? I doubt that - even aircraft manufacturers expect to have their costs recouped within a decade of program initiation, and they spend upwards of $10billion on a single product.

    You see my point? Its exactly the same as the one I made in my parent post...

    If Governments were not allowed to invest in these programs, they wouldn't get done. Hubble would still be a pipe dream, the Mars rovers would still be in the back of someones mind as they drove an RC car around a circuit. Sometimes investment has to be made in pure science, and unfortunately the risk is too great for corporations to take interest.

  43. If only Japan had won the ITER contract... by Suiggy · · Score: 1

    ...then they would have already begun construction. You can thank the lazy French for their relaxing way of life in the delay and increased cost for ITER.

  44. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by AtomicJake · · Score: 1

    I like the fact that Governments put money into pure-science research, because no one else is likely to.

    It does not follow that because government funds something, that it would not happen if the government were not the source of the funding.

    -jcr

    Right. But, just because the government funds a research project that does not exclude private funding of a similar project.

  45. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Greenpeace? Why would you expect a terrorist organization to contribute money to something productive?

  46. USA : Should start building reactors now. by tjstork · · Score: 1

    I think it is an absolute disgrace that the USA is a junior ITER partner and is not building its own ITER reactor. Yes, its billions of dollars, but the prize is priceless. Americans have the money to do this. If we could cut a sliver of medicare and defense, and maybe have a tax structure in place so that we don't have to borrow a trillion dollars every time corporate and capital gains taxes plunge in a recession, then, we could easily fund the kind of research into fusion that can get the job done.

    I think the only way to get there is to build a new fusion plant every few years, expecting each to actually fail, but gaining lessons from it to apply to the next one that we will build. If we don't have the answers to all the physics problems, guess, and learn from it. Trying to figure out everything before hand is just impossible in a task this complex. We need to build, fail, learn, and keep building. This is how we learned to do everything else, from flying, to cars, to spacecraft, and even to operating systems and computer software.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:USA : Should start building reactors now. by vertinox · · Score: 1

      I think it is an absolute disgrace that the USA is a junior ITER partner and is not building its own ITER reactor

      Why would they?

      They already have the NIF which are going to start their device up next month for a test run of a Fusion reaction with expected results around 2010-12ish.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
  47. If we put as much effort... by zogger · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If we put as much effort (money, time, mindshare, public discussion and activism, governmental efforts, tax credits and other incentivesm etc) into energy conservation as we do trying to come up with new energy sources we could probably get by with much less on the energy producing side. But you see, that makes the huge energy companies a lot less money. A LOT less. Not attractive at all to the predatory side of the "investor class" folks.

      Things like superinsulation of buildings and using telecommuting more than human being commuting would reduce energy demands considerably. Superinsulate once, drop energy demands for the life of the building. Eliminate one physically commuting job to a telecommuting job, then no fuel for either a private vehicle nor to run some public transportation thing is needed. Reducing the number of office workers needing to physically commute would reduce the need for those huge corporate SUV styled energy hog "headquarters" buildings, which drops energy demands. And so on.

    Here's a real simple one, only take a single law to pass and help with energy demand. Ban night time huge lit up advertising signs of any kind, product specific or corporate specific. Look it's the Acme Anvils business! And look again, ten different kinds of Acme anvils, all in their scroling neon glory! We at Acme need a 50 foot electronic sign that uses as much electricity per night as could run the next ten small villages in the developing world.

      That sort of stuff is just a ridiculous waste. You can still see various advertising signs in the daylight, there is absolutely no need to be able to see them late at night, especially from the space aliens overhead perspective. I don't know how many gigawatt hours that might save, but judging by every big city I have ever been in, it would be quite a lot.

  48. Technology Prerequisites by Atmchicago · · Score: 1

    Fusion, if ever successful, is likely to revolutionize our society, and the only way its ever going to be successful is if investment is made.

    What these researchers haven't realized is that first we need to learn about superconductors (Conquer 4) and Pre-sentient Algorithms (Discover 5) to learn Fusion Power. But yeah, it'll be a pretty big deal once we get it.

    To quote:

    "It will happen, and it will happen in our lifetimes. Fusion Power isn't just the future. Fusion Power is now.

    -- T. M. Morgan-Reilly, Morgan Metagenics"

    --

    You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it dissolve.

  49. Time to move on by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 4, Interesting

    There's really no point in continuing with this experiment now.

    I have strong confidence in the technical side of this project, meaning that I believe that ITER will work, and generate net energy. Unfortunately it's not clear to me how much we'll actually learn in that process; this is an engineering project more than a scientific one.

    I have zero confidence that the ITER path (and related approaches) is one that will ever result in commercial power generation. The energy density of ITER is far too low to be useful, and the only way to improve that is to make more expensive machines. There's no evidence that the technology scales down in cost, and that any approach along this "big dumb" line is useful. Very smart people at the power companies have already given it a big thumbs-down.

    This money needs to be turned to other projects. For the price of ITER we can fund a whole bunch of smaller science projects, projects that at least have some hope of being actually useful. HiPER is one that cries out for funding, but so does magnetized target fusion and the polywell. Unlike ITER, the physics of these experiments is not yet understood, but IF they do work then they are FAR less expensive to build. That is a much better way to spend research money IMHO.

    1. Re:Time to move on by Crispy+Critters · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately it's not clear to me how much we'll actually learn in that process;

      The research goals are not secret. There is a lot to be learned. Things like net energy production are nice bullet points, but they are indeed almost meaningless scientifically. But what do we know about how a plasma reacts to a large population of energetic alphas generated by nuclear reactions? Not much. What do we know about how the buildup of a thermally equilibrated population of alphas will affect things? Not enough. Does ITER lie within the range of dimensionless performance parameters explored by existing machines? No. Are there lots of other physics effects that do not scale with the dimensionless performance parameters? Yes. And so on.

      It's not your fault if people do a lousy job of explaining the scientific goals. But that doesn't mean that they don't exist.

      It is fair to argue that the scientific goals could be partially addressed at a lower cost if the engineering goals were taken out. I don't know if you'd be right, but a plausible argument could be made. But it is not reasonable to say that the only important research component is the plant engineering.

    2. Re:Time to move on by mako1138 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If there's one thing I learned from taking classes about nuclear fusion, it's this: generating net fusion power is difficult. This goes for magnetic as well as inertial confinement schemes. So I caution you against being too enthusiastic about any particular initiative. The history of fusion research is a pattern of "oh this is a great idea, we'll have it in 10 years", followed by "uhh there are all sorts of unexpected issues". Progress is slow and painstaking, and TANSTAAFL is the rule. Don't be surprised when previously inexpensive concepts turn out to require significant investment to achieve net power production.

      But I agree that we should fund research across the board.

  50. Wasted money. by MaWeiTao · · Score: 1

    I can't help but think that money wasted on the stimulus package couldn't have been better spent on research like this. Even if the end result was that this sort of power generation isn't practical I can't help but think that we'd learn a lot from it and come away with some sort of technological innovation. But of course, that's not how things work. Instead the money goes to whoever lobbies hardest and contributes to the right politicians.

    But don't worry, China or India will do it first while the West is struggling to pay for its bloated, unproductive welfare programs. I don't deny there's some need for such programs, but the way I see things going our government is creating a class of people entirely dependent on the government instead of investing in programs which will ensure the long-term innovation prosperity.

    1. Re:Wasted money. by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      That money wasn't wasted. Most of it went to wealthy bondholders.

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
  51. Nah, too expensive by DrYak · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Barring a massive program of depopulation

    Well, there's your solution.

    Well, except the USA's war in Irak proved that it cost much more than 10bn to go and kill a few civilians in a small region.
    Nah, funding fusion is still cheaper. Could buy around 20 ITERs for the same budget.

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
    1. Re:Nah, too expensive by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      Well, except the USA's war in Irak proved that it cost much more than 10bn to go and kill a few civilians in a small region.

      Another example where nuclear power would have provided a much better 'bang for the buck'.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  52. Re:Baah - Patience by NReitzel · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I fail to understand why everyone thinks a project should be able to have a fixed timeline. It's dead easy to get fusion in a D-T plasma; it makes a good college level physics experiment, using a current induced pinch.

    So the basic physics is understood. The engineering is not so. It takes a lot of effort, and a lot of knowledge, to turn a laboratory demo into an industrial process. Consider that it has taken a hundred years to learn to build refineries the way they are now, and improvement is still ongoing.

    Worthwhile projects can take a long time, on a human scale. Plasma fusion is one of these projects, and may easily extend into the next century. That doesn't seem to me to be a good reason to give up. The USA is spending a trillion dollars on keeping bankers happy, surely they can spend a few lousy billion over the next twenty years on a possibly limitless energy source.

    I understand why politicians think that a "project" should cough up results before the end of their elected term. The rest of us don't need to be that short sighted.

    --

    Don't take life too seriously; it isn't permanent.

  53. Re:Moon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wouldn't it accelerate the moon?

    The good:
    - Longer days -> incompatible with biological clock -> you don't need an alarm clock any more because you wake up early every day

    The bad:
    - No full solar eclipses any more
    - Moon can only be seen from one half of the earth (can this be called hemisphere?). Just how it is on pluto.

  54. Why does nuclear demand subsidy then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If they are so competitive, there should be no need, should there.

  55. Desperate? by TheLink · · Score: 1

    Desperately need fusion?

    If we can't build enough fission reactors now to supply demand, I doubt we can build enough fusion reactors especially of the ITER style.

    The expensive ITER approach is the wrong horse to bet on if you're desperate.

    Heck it's probably a better investment to throw a hundred million or so into cold fusion. Even if it turns out to not be fusion, it's extremely likely that there's some interesting scientific phenomenon there, and maybe we just might get another type of battery (energy storage device).

    Chucking billions into ITER and committees that take years to decide on where stuff is going to be built, is an incredible waste.

    It's like betting all your money on a horse that has not won a single race in decades.

    If we are really desperate, I think we better spread smaller bets on many other horses.

    --
    1. Re:Desperate? by newcastlejon · · Score: 1

      That's the advantage of the Polywell, it's (comparatively) cheap compared to ITER and the project has produced fusion. The design promises the obsolescence of conventional steam plant, meaning cheaper power plants, and clean power assuming they can achieve net power with p+B.

      If you live in one of the so-called developed countries (pfft!) then a billion USD is probably a drop in the ocean. Bussard was asking less than half that; it saddens me that he didn't live to see his work come to fruition.

      The potential of fusion power: cheap and clean energy and the potential to use oil for something better than fuel - building material, i.e. plastics. We need to cast our nets wide and fund anyone who can bring us closer to the end of our dependance on fossil fuels.

      --
      If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
  56. I did read your comment by Kupfernigk · · Score: 2, Insightful
    And did try to understand it. And your point is? During the 1960s Nature was full of stuff on fusion, New Scientist was promoting it, Scientific American was boosting fusion research to the decision makers' staffs who read it and there was a lot of scientific interest. Then we had JET and TOKAMAK and a whole load of other initiatives, all with this "The next step will be power production". We had the "fricking great lasers will compress H2H3 mixtures to the fusion point. None of them worked because they all turned out to be much, much harder than anyone realised. And then we had cold fusion and sonofusion

    If we run out of energy, we aren't going to be able to build these prototypes because they are just so huge. We will be too busy trying to grow food.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:I did read your comment by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      If we run out of energy, we aren't going to be able to build these prototypes because they are just so huge. We will be too busy trying to grow food.

      The majority of manufacturing jobs are basically already outdated. You could have machines do all this shit, and then you only need people to design and maintain machines. We don't do that because right now people have nothing else to do; you can't return to an agrarian existence if you wanted to in much of the world because the land is already owned by someone else, possibly to include the Federal government. (See: Bureau of Land Management)

      Anyway, "run out of energy" is a hilarious idea. And just to outline what my comment was trying to say; fusion is nuclear power. Perhaps you meant to say it would replace nuclear fission power generation?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  57. Waste of money!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The design criteria for ITER have been known since the mid-1980's. If you build a machine big enough you can sustain fusion for a while. The reason ITER has been so long getting approval is that it is a waste of time--the design will not support many ports for taking data to actually try to figure out what was going on in the plasma at fusion temperatures. In other words, very little new physics can be anticipated from ITER but somebody may get a Nobel prize out of it for positive energy yield in a sustained reaction. The ITER reactor will work for about 3 weeks at positive power yield before the neutron flux degrades the steel to the point it will no longer hold vacuum, hence they are delaying that 15 years or so, since that is the end of ITER related jobs. While running, it could basically power the entire North American continent. Then, you shut down and send in the robots to disassemble the radioactive mess and ship it off to some appropriate storage facility, while you start building the next one. This is not practical power production, and if it were the utilities would have built it 20 years ago.

    Ex plasma physicist.

  58. National Ignition Facility by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In a somewhat related article, The Economist this week wrote an article about the startup of the National Ignitiion Facility.

  59. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's an international project, not a french project. Half of the funding comes from the European Union, the other half is from non-european countries (e.g. Japan). Also, you might not know it, but Europe has a currency known as the "Euro", "francs" don't exist any more.

  60. ITER will fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I can tell you with a good degree of certainty that ITER will fail. Here is why;

    The solar nuclear Hydrogen-gas-plasma model is wrong.

    Based on various satellite observations there is clear evidence that suggests a liquid iron-nickel rich sun with insulating layers of calcium, neon, sulfur, and silicon. Unrelated cold fusion experiments have provided some insight into interactions and byproducts which are likely to occur such as ** Iron-nickel's ability to absorb D2 and produce He3. **

    This a new area of science with huge opportunity. Any enterprising individuals reading this?

     

  61. If the experiment has unexpected results like.... by motherpusbucket · · Score: 1

    opening a portal to another dimension and letting in some non-carbon based life forms or something of that ilk, we can at least count on a quick surrender. They will quickly bow to their [fill in the blank] overlords.

    --
    "You can't really dust for vomit" --Nigel Tufnel
  62. disappointment by anonieuweling · · Score: 1

    Were they bought out by big oil?
    Or are they really incompetent?
    Don't they understand that it is better to pump a few more billions into ITER than to pump those same billions into banks?
    Don't they understand that energy is a world-class problem and that it needs to be solved ASAP? I.e.: 5 years extra is unacceptable?

  63. Why isn't Japan building their own? by Animats · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm surprised that Japan doesn't have a more aggressive fusion program. Japan has almost no oil, little coal, and small natural gas reserves. Japan imports over 97% of its energy. If anybody needs fusion, it's Japan. Japan is a participant in ITER, but that's not enough.

  64. next 10 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    i wouldn't worry about fusion power, within next decade it will become clear that continuously growing fossil fuel use is over. once that realization is here and not even recession is capable of bringing oil prices back down we will see serious money poured into fusion power. i bet with few hundred billions we could have fusion within 1-2 years.

  65. Oh well, then, that's a problem: by tchdab1 · · Score: 1

    >>>ITER will not conduct energy-producing experiments until at least 2025 -- five years later than what had been previously agreed to. The article adds that the reactor will cost even more than the seven parties in the project first thought:'...Construction costs are likely to double from the 5-billion (US$7-billion)

    I guess the in-home personal version of this is also delayed then?

  66. Re:If I were a French taxpayer...You wouldn't care by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For one thing, this is an international experiment, that just happens to be in France -- it had to be built someplace after all. A lot of countries contribute dollars and people to it.

    Second, it is only one of many possible approaches, the one that happens to suit tenure seeking cubicle type big scientists and bureaucrats the best, not perhaps the scientifically best approach, and obviously not for the money. I've lost count of how many times fusioneers have said "we just need one twice as big and it will work this time". Personally, as a businessman -- I'd have fired the lot of them on rev 2. But since each try takes like 10 years, and everyone has moved on to some cushy position by then, it's always a different crowd using the same old trick for employment security.

    I have done government work, and there is no way we'd have penicillin if the governement had funded that. In that case it would have gone like "There's some contamination in this ditch bitch -- toss it out and do it all over and get it right this time". If, while doing government work (I have actual experience here) you find that the original thing can't work, but discover something that could -- no joy. They will tell you to spend the original money and time on something known not to ever work, then write a new grant, and 3 years later, long after any inspiration is gone, try the new thing.

    I am privately funding my own fusion work, and am already doing better than that crowd, and while not on a slashdot shoestring, real cheap compared to anyone else. And getting results! The thing is, here we can follow our noses, taking anything we learn into account for the next experiment. Those guys can't.

    We're not doing Bussard's thing, as we don't like the idea much and there's not enough data we can find to prove even their limited claims. And BTW, yet another error -- the government cut him/them off quite awhile back, that's why there's that video of him trying to get money from Google...

    We are right now doing electrostatic/dynamic containment/focus in a pulsed mode (nnot like Lerners DPF) using transit times and pure ions (not plasmas) and getting like 100 times the interaction rates compared to anyone else in the literature -- more than enough for the neutron flux to be very dangerous with 40 watts input total. Cost? Maybe a couple hundred K$ over two years, and we think we'll see gain before another two.

    Don't all visit at once, and no, I don't want your money or cynicism, I have plenty of my own.
    This ain't a slashvertisement. Sorry, this site is nearly two years old since last update. I've been having more fun doing than documenting --
    www.coultersmithing.com

  67. Big fusion alternatives by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There are other fusion projects available.

    Several excellent GoogleTalks available.

    The first which is Dr. Busserds Poleywell project:

        http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1996321846673788606&ei=wxkgSqWnPIyEqQP9sZScAQ&q=googletalk+nuclear

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell

    The second and more exciting is the Focus Fusion project which is a Dense Plasma Focus machine:

        http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1518007279479871760&ei=UhogStX8GYuEqQO_tMGiAQ&q=googletalk+focus+fusion

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dense_plasma_focus

    The second GoogleTalk is more interesting because it covers the other small fusion development areas.

    Dense Plasma focus fusion allows you to build a table top machine from which the electricity is drawn off directly, rather than the fusion energy being used to heat water to run turbines as all the other fusion methods would require.

    I do not hear about Fusion research in Obama's energy plan, despite his appointment of Dr. Steven Chu to the department of energy.

    Small fusion projects have a handicap as expressed in by both proponents in their respective GoogleTalk videos.

    These small projects can be run in parallel, and I feel that our time is running out for our civilization as a whole:

    http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

    Ahimsa.

  68. Don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sarkozy is going to make it a 30 hour work... Day.

    Cheers,

    An anonymous frenchman.

  69. Re:If I were a French taxpayer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What for-profit company is likely to make a multi-billion dollar investment that, even discounting the possibility of failure, it is unlikely to see any chance of a return on for 40 years? The only industries I can think that make billion dollar investments are shipmakers and aircraft manufacturers, and their planned ROI period is much less than 40 years.

    Carmakers... it takes about 6 billion euros now to design a new car and put it on the road. Chipmakers - the cost of new factories are astronomical. Foundry-makers. Pharmaceutical companies. Biotech companies...

    There are a lot of companies investing money like water. But yes, the ROI is usually something like 4 years, not 40. And thus we need government, to do those things collectively that individually would mean suicide for companies.

  70. Arghh: ITER is not French! by andre.david · · Score: 1

    Again: ITER is not French.
    Otherwise it would be fission and or it would be FTER...

  71. Good ideas, spinoffs by twopoint718 · · Score: 1

    I went to a talk at Fermilab a while ago about this project. I nerded-out over the different technologies that'll be brought to bear on it (it is a superconducting tokamak, for starters). If I were the president of the world, this is what I'd spend my money on. I would fund the crap out of fusion research until fusion happened.

  72. Poorly concealed mad scientist names? by liquiddark · · Score: 1

    Rick Nebel = Nick Rebel? You decide!

  73. obligatory by liquiddark · · Score: 1

    First they boiled the oceans, but I'd given up drinking water, so I didn't speak up...

  74. ...an unanticipated increase in staffing by ibsteve2u · · Score: 1

    "[...] and an unanticipated increase in staffing to manage procurement"

    Now there is a good example of the self-serving nature of bureaucracy: Overspending on managers to manage spending.

    --
    Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"
  75. Why not geothermal investment? by Jonas007 · · Score: 1

    Instead of spending billions on a theoretical power generation source, why doesn't the government invest in geothermal plants? These have already been proven to work (you can even get a plant setup big enough to run 2 family homes for around $40,000USD), and will provide energy for about the next 10,000 years. I'm sure with the final price tag of the 14 billion or whatever, a geothermal company could have created some pretty cheap and efficient commercial versions of these plants.