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Motion Control To Lengthen Console Hardware Cycles
With the recent E3 demonstrations of new motion-based control for consoles — Microsoft's Natal, Sony's Motion Controller, and Ubisoft's camera-based system for the Wii — analysts now expect the current console generation to last longer than normal. Microsoft exec Shane Kim said he expects the Xbox 360 to last until around 2015, in part due to Natal and new services available through Xbox Live. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald thinks this cycle may not need to end at all:
"Microsoft and Sony have invested so much in their current hardware line, as have third party publishers, that we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch. For all of these reasons, we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely (if at all — if new services like OnLive take off, or if Xbox Live and PlayStation Network become more and more robust, there may not be a need for another console cycle).'"
I don't think I'll care about my PS3 having a motion sensor. I only play fighting games, Metal Gear Solid, and Ratchet & Clank. No real need or want for motion control from me. I have a Wii and I barely touch the thing anymore (wow I just typed that then paused then laughed) and won't until Mario Galaxy 2 comes out.
The reason my PS3 has longevity is because it plays Blu-Rays, it won the format war, and unless some new disc type comes along or digital downloads with all of the extra content of a BD come along my PS3 will be around for quite some time playing fighting games and serving as my BD player.
Motion control is just a gimmick and a casual consumer driven aspect of consoles. The life blood of gaming, less casual, more hardcore gamers, are the ones who play games like Oblivion, Unreal Tournament, Starcraft, Diablo, etc. because you aren't going to see companies like Blizzard all of the sudden shifting their entire focus to motion control games and fans aren't demanding it either. If SONY and MS are going to focus entirely on casual mommy daddy crowds and really young children then I will be trashing my consoles and going entirely back to PC gaming (aside from using my PS3 as a BD player and my Wii/360 as coasters).
Seriously, Chrono Trigger, God of War, Virtu Fighter, these games are long term titles and classics because they were built to me amazing from the ground up. People still play the SNES for Chrono Trigger. MS and SONY honestly think that motion controller = instant classics?
We saw Resident Evil 4 come out on the Wii with rave reviews for its new motion controlling scheme. And where did that put Resident Evil 5? Oh yeah on the 360 and PS3. Stop trying to steal Nintendo's kiddie and casual fan base and appeal to your more active crowd please SONY and MS.
Back in 2004 Nintendo were famously going to extend the GC life cycle with new peripherals for the forseeable future
And they did. One of the additions to the GameCube family was a revision with the same general architecture and four new features: more RAM, an overclocked CPU, a USB port, and an internal flash chip. This revised GameCube is called Wii. Even the Bluetooth radio that talks to the Wii Remotes sits on an internal USB port. The Nintendo DSi bears much the same relationship to the DS: more RAM, a faster CPU, an SD card slot, and an internal flash chip.