Motion Control To Lengthen Console Hardware Cycles

With the recent E3 demonstrations of new motion-based control for consoles — Microsoft's Natal, Sony's Motion Controller, and Ubisoft's camera-based system for the Wii — analysts now expect the current console generation to last longer than normal. Microsoft exec Shane Kim said he expects the Xbox 360 to last until around 2015, in part due to Natal and new services available through Xbox Live. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald thinks this cycle may not need to end at all: "Microsoft and Sony have invested so much in their current hardware line, as have third party publishers, that we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch. For all of these reasons, we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely (if at all — if new services like OnLive take off, or if Xbox Live and PlayStation Network become more and more robust, there may not be a need for another console cycle).'"

Comments

That early?

[Daemonax]

I'm still waiting for the price of a PS3 to come down to a ridiculous price, right now they have a ludicrous price.

Re:Longer console lifecycle will kill them

[Colourspace]

I totally agree - never underestimate the power .... OoooooH SHINY!

Re:Blu-Ray...

[Dr_Barnowl]

And in The Future...

#1 "You mean you have to use your hands?"
#2 "That's like a baby's toy!"

The next gen

[8tim8]

>... we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch.

Man, wouldn't it be funny if Nintendo did a hardware refresh in a year or so and called it a next generation machine? They could make it backwards compatible to the Wii, have simultaneous releases for both systems, but distract Sony and MS to no end. But would it be the Wii2, or the WiiII (or Wiii)?

Re:The next-gen console to rule all consoles...

[Anonymous Coward]

One Red Ring to rule them all,
One Red Ring to find them,
One E74 to bring them all,
And in the Blue Screen bind them.

Definitely true in my case

[tompaulco]

I absolutely agree with the article. If they decide to go motion control, then my current console will last me as long as they continue manufacturing it because I have no interest in upgrading to motion control.