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Motion Control To Lengthen Console Hardware Cycles
With the recent E3 demonstrations of new motion-based control for consoles — Microsoft's Natal, Sony's Motion Controller, and Ubisoft's camera-based system for the Wii — analysts now expect the current console generation to last longer than normal. Microsoft exec Shane Kim said he expects the Xbox 360 to last until around 2015, in part due to Natal and new services available through Xbox Live. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald thinks this cycle may not need to end at all:
"Microsoft and Sony have invested so much in their current hardware line, as have third party publishers, that we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch. For all of these reasons, we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely (if at all — if new services like OnLive take off, or if Xbox Live and PlayStation Network become more and more robust, there may not be a need for another console cycle).'"
Both Microsoft and Sony can create faster variants of their existing hardware, but mandate that new games are backward compatible.
I.e., they can release a PS3.5 as the PS4 that can handle 1080p60* gaming (possibly in 3D with a 3D monitor) based around the same hardware, just running faster or with more resourced. Games detect the console, run in 720p on the PS3 without some fancy graphical effects (assuming physics runs on the SPU in Cell and the new one has ~30SPUs compared with 7 in the current PS3), lower resolution textures (due to less RAM), etc.
Sony always make a console last 10 years anyway, but they also release the new high end 5 or 6 years into that lifespan whilst the previous model mops up the low end of the market and new poor markets around the world. I think it would be suicide to not build upon the hardware base in the PS3 - going with a new architecture would be a folly given their financial situation.
* I know that the PS3 can do this, but most games are in 720p, if that.
If you consider the fact that most games are constantly looking for the latest and greatest, whether it be hardware or software or (god help us) controllers, there will be only negative results from the lengthening of the console lifecycle. By extending the life of these boxes, console manufacturers are going to face the waning interest of consumers.
In some respects, the decision to keep current consoles longer makes some sense. There has not been any serious change in gameplay since the earliest consoles from Nintendo came out (this is not perfectly true, but I'll come back to that later). In order to keep interest alive, more powerful consoles were needed to bring the graphics capabilities into sync with the gameplay. Now, with the latest batch of consoles, we have seen that level reached. There will still be a few more tweaks that could be applied: anti-aliasing is one technological hurdle that hasn't been tackled satisfactorily.
In effect, the development of consoles has been dictated by the needs of the games. Unfortunately, these games have needed better graphics more than anything else. So what we have now is the situation where graphics are really good, but gameplay has not improved.
Now to come back to the issue of gameplay. There have been only a few true quantum leaps in gameplay. 3D, independent cooperative gaming (as opposed to simple team-play which has been around since R-type), and the latest is motion control as introduced in the Wii. Motion control has been around a long time, but until Wii no one has been able to make it a success. Nintendo used to have a motion activated controller, but it never took off. Para Para Paradise was interesting, but very limited in scope and popularity. And though there were fighting games which attempted to use motion sensors for input, these were also widely criticized. It was the Wii which was able to break through the closed-mindedness and create games that were fun and realistic to the gaming world.
But what is next? What is the next quantum leap in gaming? Without it, there can't be any new consoles that do anything more than make graphics better. But if console manufacturers think that gamers are going to sit idly by twiddling their thumbs on old consoles, they are going to be in deep trouble. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's better for them to release new consoles, even if it means nothing more than better graphics. The alternative is to simply lose the interest of the gaming public.
Thankfully we've come to the point where network firmware upgrades keep the the console UX fresh. On top of that, Microsoft has been gradually adding specs to the 360 over the years. I am constantly surprised by the number of people who "just bought another one" because their previous 360 was lacking HDMI, or just didn't want to go through the hassle of M$ replacing it after falling prey to the RRoD. How long will be before M$ just says, "ok, let's add a new GPU to the existing hardware and call it the Ultra model?"
The major failing of current motion control systems (wiimote, Natal, whatever the PS3 system is called) is that there's no feedback. You're waving about, and simply hope that the game gets it right. By removing the layer of abstraction the controller provides, you're making things LESS immersive by starkly revealing that the game cannot respond to you in ways other than the visual or the audio.
Until cheap, reliable haptic control systems emerge (not a for about half a decade if things like the Falcon, and the cost of more flexiable systems, is anything to go by), motion control will be limited in usefulness to a few casual games that don't require fast and accurate responses.
Both Microsoft and Sony can create faster variants of their existing hardware, but mandate that new games are backward compatible.
As can Nintendo. Most Game Boy Color games early in the GBC's lifetime could display in grayscale on a Game Boy Pocket, and Nintendo has stated that some new DS games will have extra capabilities when inserted into a Nintendo DSi system of the correct region.
Wish I had mod points for you. I'm not looking for Gears of War Tennis, I just expect my oblong sphere shaped Mii head not to be a jaggy-mess that can only be rendered in 480p. Even updating to something such as a Wii+, with HDMI and able to render current Wii games in 1080p would keep the Wii alive for a couple more years. Even Wii emulators have been able to do this (there is a youtube video out there of SSBM in 1080p, even though it's youtube, so you can't really tell), so a hardware bump would be appreciated.
Whether or not there is some sort of god, I'm not supposed to say/god is a word and the argument ends there-Smog