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Sunspots Return

We're emerging from the longest, deepest sunspot drought since 1913 (we discussed its depths here) with the appearance of a robust group of sunspots over the weekend. Recently we discussed a possible explanation for the prolonged minimum. The Fox News article quotes observer Michael Buxton of Ocean Beach, Calif.: "This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years." jamie found a NASA site where you can generate a movie of the recent sunspot's movement — try selecting the first image type and bumping the resolution to 1024. The magnetic field lines are clearly visible.

276 comments

  1. wow. by NotWithABang · · Score: 5, Funny

    "This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years."

    ... MAN does this guy need to get laid.

    --

    ... I must be new here.
    1. Re:wow. by Hogwash+McFly · · Score: 4, Funny

      Don't we all, man, don't we all...

      --
      Mother, do you think they'll like this sig?
    2. Re:wow. by gubers33 · · Score: 1

      Look at the brightside he has new masturbation material to last him the next two years.

      --
      Just because you are wrong and I called you out on it doesn't mean I am a Troll.
    3. Re:wow. by m.ducharme · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      No, not all of us.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    4. Re:wow. by jollyreaper · · Score: 2, Funny

      "This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years."

      ... MAN does this guy need to get laid.

      For all you know he could be one of those bad-ass astronomers they make movies about and he could have been sitting at the 'scope looking at the spot while getting a blow job from a hot chick like in Swordfish.

      --
      Kwisatz Haderach
      Sell the spice to CHOAM
      This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
    5. Re:wow. by TheRealMindChild · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Speak for yourself. I may not have learned life's most important lessons, but one thing I did learn is the multiple hours of foreplay and cuddling surrounding the sex isn't worth the two second blast of hormones.

      --

      "When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
    6. Re:wow. by MBGMorden · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Maybe I'm just odd compared to most guys but I rather enjoy the foreplay and cuddling. The blast of hormones is just, err, "icing on the cake". ;)

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    7. Re:wow. by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      For all you know he could be one of those bad-ass astronomers they make movies about and he could have been sitting at the 'scope looking at the spot while getting a blow job from a hot chick like in Swordfish.

      Always found that amusing. In reality somebody with the skills to crack that firewall (or encryption key - whatever. haven't seen that movie in ages) would probably be the geekiest looking guy in existence. That doesn't fit with societal views of the archetypal badass though.

      It's kinda like in horror movies. Any movie involving an exorcism or something that requires the presence of a priest who's gonna get the job done must always portray their priest as the oddball priest who swears, smokes, drinks, barely believes in God, etc. Religion in the real world aside, I think that in a fictional movie where it's put forth as a given within the story that God exists, that the best "demon fighter" would be the most righteous goody-two-shoes you can find. Instead we get Samuel L Jackson in a robe exorcising demons.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    8. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Same here; being single, I can masturbate whenever I want -- but what I wouldn't give for a good cuddle...

      posting anonymously for reasons which I suspect to be somewhat less than obtuse.

      And no, I don't live in my mom's basement... and I actually saw the sun earlier today. I can't say I noticed any spots, though.

    9. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      gay

    10. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do not try it at home. Looking at sunspots through a 'scope is gonna hurt your eyes. The BJ too, if you consider it like masturbation by a second party.

    11. Re:wow. by superdana · · Score: 1

      Ok then, let's go.

    12. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's quite a pity you don't enjoy the foreplay and cuddling.
      And the "blast of hormones" isn't worth it to you.
      And it's only two seconds for you.

      Doesn't it get better with practice or something?

    13. Re:wow. by Philip+K+Dickhead · · Score: 1

      Man! You just blasted Smurfs across the counterpane!

      --
      "Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
    14. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      Get with a woman whose spirit has been crushed by some drug addict in her past. She doesn't care how good the sex or about the foreplay as long as you don't do smack or hit her.

    15. Re:wow. by Hurricane78 · · Score: 1

      Actually I did it while floating and standing in the water. But now I'm tired, so I really need to get laid.

      Good night from the beach! ^^

      --
      Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
    16. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Speak for yourself. Damned Axe: I can't keep 'em offa' me!

    17. Re:wow. by rhyder128k · · Score: 1
      That scene would have played great if the gender roles had been reversed: Expert female hacker forced into sex, at gunpoint, by gangsters. Can be clearly heard saying "no" a couple of times. Hey, but in the end, she enjoyed it really, just like they all do.

      Actually, the male rape is less offensive to me than the technical nonsense in the movie. That film only has two saving graces IMO.

      --
      Michael Reed, freelance tech writer.
    18. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, there is something very very wrong with you.

    19. Re:wow. by mjwx · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Maybe I'm just odd compared to most guys but I rather enjoy the foreplay and cuddling.

      That's an indication that you haven't had really good sex.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    20. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I enjoy the food ... the rest is just icing.

    21. Re:wow. by haifastudent · · Score: 0

      "This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years."

      ACHTUNG! Do not look at sunspots with remaining eye!

      --
      Thank for reading to the sig. You may stop reading now. It is safe. There is no more content. Why are you still reading?
    22. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're new here aren't you?

    23. Re:wow. by fractoid · · Score: 2, Funny

      That's an indication that you've had more sunspots than really good foreplay and cuddling.

      --
      Rampant carbon sequestration destroyed the Dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to help repair the damage.
    24. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well...you're either jerking off a lot or you're a woman...and this is /. so you're not fooling anybody!

    25. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That scene would have played great if the gender roles had been reversed: Expert female hacker forced into sex, at gunpoint, by gangsters. Can be clearly heard saying "no" a couple of times. Hey, but in the end, she enjoyed it really, just like they all do.

      Take your rape fantasies off of slashdot.

    26. Re:wow. by Altreus · · Score: 1

      For all you know he could be one of those bad-ass astronomers they make movies about and he could have been sitting at the 'scope looking at the spot while getting a blow job from a hot chick like in Swordfish.

      This would make it the best sunspot I'd ever seen too.

      --
      74.117.115.116 32.97.110.111 116.104.101.114 32.80.101.114 108.32.104.97 99.107.101.114
    27. Re:wow. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, come on. Hugh is being threatened at gunpoint with a one minute deadline (literally), not to mention being forced to act out a ludicrous hacking scene, but the part that really bugs you is how horribly evil that Halle Berry is giving him a blowjob? Rhyder, if you are a male, do us all a favor and turn in your testicles at the nearest hospital.

    28. Re:wow. by Gothmolly · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Don't you mean "frosting on the face" ?

      --
      I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
  2. "The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. " by John+Hasler · · Score: 0

    Very strange, as magnetic field lines are entirely imaginary.

    --
    Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  3. Re:Oh sure... by mkiwi · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I know it's popular here to say everything that comes from Fox News is complete bullshit, but maybe just once and a while they have a good article. We should be thankful for that.

  4. CQ DX by Nethead · · Score: 4, Insightful

    CQ DX here we come! Time to hang wire and pound brass!

    73, w7com

    --
    -- I have a private email server in my basement.
    1. Re:CQ DX by endianx · · Score: 2, Funny

      My HOA doesn't allow hanging wire, you insensitive clod!

      73, KJ4BRU

    2. Re:CQ DX by W2IRT · · Score: 1

      Four elements on 15m, seven elements on 10m and two elements on 12m up at 85 feet -- plus 1500 Watts. It's about time I put a few more new ones in the log somewhere above 20!
      I can hardly wait till CQWW this fall if conditions are this good or better. (Of course, I'm still hoping for a good season on 80 and 160 this winter, too!)

      --
      Cheers, Peter, W2IRT
    3. Re:CQ DX by AB3A · · Score: 3, Interesting

      DX from the other side of the earth on 10 meters at 1 AM? I remember those days. Now if only we could find a way to get the LIDS to learn how to troll the Internet, why we might actually have a civilized conversation on the air!

      --
      Nearly fifty percent of all graduates come from the bottom half of the class!
    4. Re:CQ DX by nsayer · · Score: 1

      Nope. With a few exceptions, US Amateurs are not allowed to send one-way transmissions. Most everything we do, we have to do at least in pairs. Sometimes in groups. Why, sometimes we even have contests to see who can do the most in a day. That can get tiring, I can tell ya!

    5. Re:CQ DX by fatboy · · Score: 1

      I am sure glad to see ole' Sol is waking up again. I was surprised to make as many contacts as I did on field day, with just a simply wire loop thrown up in the trees.

      --KE4PJW

      --
      --fatboy
    6. Re:CQ DX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1500 Watts, compensating for something?

      I work NL1BYZ (New Zealand) and VK7XX (Australia) in the last week on 100 Watts out of my Hy-Gain ground mounted vertical. More power isn't always better.

      73
      KJ4CTS

    7. Re:CQ DX by Gordonjcp · · Score: 1

      Quarter wave vertical on 20m, with a loading coil I can add for 40m. 50W (for licensing reasons) from my 30-year-old Trio TS-520. Window-rattling reports all over Europe. You don't need a big expensive setup to get out there.

      Now, all I need to do is get my CW up to 25wpm...

      73s, 2M0YEQ

    8. Re:CQ DX by RadioOfficer · · Score: 1

      You said it, I was beginning to despair... 73 EI4HQ

    9. Re:CQ DX by Atario · · Score: 1

      I am not familiar with the type of thing I am reading here.

      --
      "A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy." --Theodore Roosevelt
    10. Re:CQ DX by whoisisis · · Score: 1

      I live in a dorm room with absolutely no way of putting up any wire anywhere.

      73 de OZ7LNX

    11. Re:CQ DX by Rogerborg · · Score: 1
      I think we've stumbled into some sort of cult meeting. Their religion seems to be based around building really unreliable truck sized telephonic devices out of garbage cans and tin foil, and then yelling "CAN YOU HEAR ME? I CAN HEAR YOU!" at each other at 3am.

      Don't make any sudden movements and just back... slowly... away.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    12. Re:CQ DX by ndege · · Score: 1

      I know you are being funny, but it's too bad that the FCC's OTARD doesn't specifically include installation of HAM radio antennas. Seems geared to people needing their fix of satellite TV.

      --
      Sig Return: 204 No Content
    13. Re:CQ DX by endianx · · Score: 1

      Huge yagi antennas could kill property values, my own included. Also, the federal government has no authority to overrule local governments on such an issue (the law you linked is entirely unconstitutional).

      But something like a 20m inverted V on the roof should be fairly inconspicuous. I may try and plead my case with them at some point, making the argument that it would be valuable for emergency communications to have an HF operator in the neighborhood.

      I don't expect to have much luck, though. Even cell towers around here are hidden in fake-looking clock towers, and such. I'll probably have to settle for whatever I can get working in my attic.

  5. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by H0p313ss · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Very strange, as magnetic field lines are entirely imaginary.

    I guess you've never played with magnets and iron filings?

    --
    XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
  6. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

    A broken clock is right twice a day, after all...

  7. We're all gonna die! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread478278/pg1

    Another New Crop Circle Predicts July 7th 2009 - Earth getting a Major Solar Storm

  8. Alright.... by Em+Emalb · · Score: 1

    Who embarrassed the sun this time? Don't you people know how awkward the sun feels when you make fun of it?

    --
    Sent from your iPad.
  9. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    With the notable exception of 24h clocks.

  10. skin marks by pig-power · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    I bet you were pretty happy to hear this.
    The marks on your skin that looked like sunspots...
    turned out to be rings around Uranus!
    zing

  11. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Not visible != imaginary. Magnetic lines very much exist, as any kid who has played with a magnet and iron filings can tell you.

    Amusingly, my captcha is arrogant

  12. What I'd like to know is... by geogob · · Score: 2, Insightful

    who tagged this NSFW. Seriously.

    It's nice to see the new solar cycle is flaring up. I miss those nice auroras we could this during the last solar peak. Haven't seen one in about 3 years now. Some were so bright that you could see them in the city, very early in the evening.(at 56ÂN Magnetic Latitude).

    1. Re:What I'd like to know is... by decipher_saint · · Score: 4, Funny

      Ever wonder why your parents told you not to look directly at the sun?

      IT'S NAKED

      --
      crazy dynamite monkey
    2. Re:What I'd like to know is... by eln · · Score: 1, Funny

      Ever wonder why your parents told you not to look directly at the sun?

      IT'S NAKED

      Totally true. Being a rebellious kid, I did look directly at the sun, and it was not only naked, it was HOT! So hot that I started playing with myself while looking directly at it. I must have done that for hours, and you know what? They were right about masturbation making you go blind too!

    3. Re:What I'd like to know is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bullshit!!! I jack off all the time, and I can see fine. \]'[[]\\][\]]]\]\'[p;[\';p[[]\\\\\==]\']///

  13. Is it just me ? by ls671 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Is it just me and where I live or have last summer and winter been pretty warm while this current summer seems cooler with the return of the sun's spot ? ;-)))

    --
    Everything I write is lies, read between the lines.
    1. Re:Is it just me ? by BigJClark · · Score: 2, Funny


      It is you. Where I live, Northern Alberta, Canada, this past winter had been bitterly cold, with a fair amount of snow on the ground until mid may, and this summer has been very cold and dreary.

      You can trust that I was cursing David Suzuki and all other global warming opportunists while I was walking to work in -45 degrees.

      --

      Hi, I Boris. Hear fix bear, yes?
    2. Re:Is it just me ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just you. Here in central Texas we've been having record high temperatures regularly for over a month now (mostly 103-105).

    3. Re:Is it just me ? by JobyOne · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's you and where you live. Where I live (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA) we had an unusually warm and dry winter, and are currently in the middle of a slightly hot and unusually humid summer.

      I don't like it one bit. Our moisture is supposed to come from melting snow in the mountains...not torrential downpours ruining cars, roofs and vegetation with hail and flooding roads because the ground is too dry and hard to absorb all that at once.

      --
      Porquoi?
    4. Re:Is it just me ? by Abcd1234 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Because local climate suddenly equates to global mean temperature? Huh... go figure...

    5. Re:Is it just me ? by CorporateSuit · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Because local climate suddenly equates to global mean temperature? Huh... go figure...

      Um... Because solar weather affects global weather.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    6. Re:Is it just me ? by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's just you - here in the Pacific Northwet, it's been exactly the opposite.

    7. Re:Is it just me ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are also slightly retarded for cursing global warming when sun output is less then normal for longer than normal. That's is just, *STUPID*. If nothing else, this sunspot low and it is still warmer than normal. Of course, if you are less than 12 years old you may not remember the days with real -45 degrees weather.

      Considering that in Winnipeg, the weather is generally in normal range with winter being not as cold as years ago. Hell, the infestation of the pine beetle that is moving into Alberta is ONLY possible because it is not as cold in winters as it used to be. So please, don't bullshit about bitter cold.

    8. Re:Is it just me ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ever since asking a question and making an assertion are the same thing.

  14. Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I saw the tag but haven't seen this explicitly mentioned yet: one theory is that lack of sunspots causes Earth to warm up. (There is a very strong negative correlation between sunspot activity and temperature on Earth.)

    Maybe now we'll find out who's right.

    1. Re:Well, now we'll know. by thrillseeker · · Score: 1

      It's all part of Karl Rove's nefarious plan ...

    2. Re:Well, now we'll know. by mordors9 · · Score: 4, Funny

      You guys with your wacky theories that the Sun may affect our temperatures..

    3. Re:Well, now we'll know. by DarkHelmet · · Score: 2, Informative
      --
      /^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
    4. Re:Well, now we'll know. by maxume · · Score: 1

      So is that physical law strong or biology strong?

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    5. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Em+Emalb · · Score: 1

      I saw the tag but haven't seen this explicitly mentioned yet: one theory is that lack of sunspots causes Earth to warm up.

      Round here, it's been the mildest summer temperature-wise in a long time.

      (DC area)

      --
      Sent from your iPad.
    6. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Abcd1234 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So, what, the last 50 years of steady warming, during which multiple sunspot cycles occurred, isn't enough for you? Or are you just a big fan of cherry-picking data to support your pet conclusions?

    7. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Nautical+Insanity · · Score: 5, Funny

      There is a very strong negative correlation between sunspot activity and temperature on Earth.

      Aha! So global warming is causing the sunspots to disappear!

    8. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The last 50 years have also seen a large increase in the sunspot activity per cycle.

    9. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Could you back this up with some data. If anything, the inverse is true. The last 50 years have seen a large increase in the number of sunspots per solar cycle.

    10. Re:Well, now we'll know. by blueg3 · · Score: 2, Funny

      You guys with your wacky qualitative science.

    11. Re:Well, now we'll know. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

      Um, I'm thinking GP might have it other-way-around. Sunspots are caused by violent electromagnetic activity on the sun; more active = hotter, or at least that is what I had heard.

      --
      Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
    12. Re:Well, now we'll know. by radtea · · Score: 4, Interesting

      There are some interesting data available on Earth's albedo (reflectivity): http://earth.myfastforum.org/sutra1069.php Check out the linked sources, in particular.

      Summary: there is some evidence that Earth's albedo has decreased by as much as 2% (absolute, almost 10% relative) in the past twenty years. A decrease in albedo means less visible light is being reflected by the planet, implying that more is being absorbed, which would tend to increase planetary heat content.)

      A 2.0% variation in albedo is huge: over twice the effect of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases combined (6.8 W/m**2 vs about 5 W/m**2). However, because much of the change is due to changes in cloud cover, one must also account for the changes in infrared absorption from different kinds of clouds, which makes a head-to-head comparison tricky. However, while the effect of different types of cloud cover can reduce the effect of albedo variations, the residual is still as large or larger than current estimates of human greenhouse gas contributions to climate forcing.

      Final grain of salt: albedo is a physically meaningful term, unlike "global average temperature", but it is still very tricky to measure, and therefore these results should be taken with a grain of salt. However, the magnitude of the effect is such that it is difficult--but not impossible--to imagine it not having a pretty major influence on climate.

      Cloud cover maybe correlated with cosmic ray flux, which may be correlated with sunspot activity.

      Based on the data we have, it appears Earth's albedo has been anomalously low in the past decade or more, and may now be popping back up to something closer to the long term average (0.315 as opposed to as low as 0.305 in the past decade). If that is the case, then we can expect to see a pronounced drop in "global average temperature" in the next few years.

      If that happens, then climate forcing due to albedo variation is going to start looking pretty plausible as a significant cause of the high "global average temperatures" seen in the past decade.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    13. Re:Well, now we'll know. by patch0 · · Score: 1

      Almost right, the theory is in fact the reverse of your statement: linkage

    14. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      No it hasn't. In fact we are pretty much at the same level we were in 1850 for sunspots.
      http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png

    15. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 4, Informative

      I saw the tag but haven't seen this explicitly mentioned yet: one theory is that lack of sunspots causes Earth to warm up. (There is a very strong negative correlation between sunspot activity and temperature on Earth.

      Nope. People have been looking for correlations between sunspots and weather for years, but never found much. If there's a correlation, it's weak. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/astro/sunspots.php

      To the extent that there's any correlation, however, it tends to the the opposite of what you said-- positive correlation between sunspots and temperature, not negative. The "Maunder Minimum" period of very few or no sunspots occurred about the same time as the "Little Ice Age" of cold temperatures. (But note that a single period of low temperatures ocurring during a period of low sunspots, however extended, does not mean statistically significance).

      If that correlation were indeed true, then the recent solar minimum would have been correlated with low temperatures, and hence would have been masking some of the effect of global warming-- in other words, that greenhouse-effect warming is actually occurring to a greater extent than the data shows.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    16. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Abcd1234 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And, once again, it doesn't make sense, as the global temperature should then correlate with the sunspot cycles, and in the last 50 years, it hasn't.

    17. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So I've been trying to find an answer to this question, and so far it looks like it is the other way around.

      "Sunspots were rarely observed during the Maunder Minimum in the second part of the 17th Century. This coincides with the middle (and coldest) part of a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age."
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot#Sunspot_variation

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

    18. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 3, Informative

      I was wrong about the correlation being negative, but I was not wrong about the correlation. But one thing pointed out in your video, that solar activity has not corresponded to temperature in just the last few years, is totally meaningless. Long-term trends are the only ones that matter. And as for long-term predictions, nothing comes close to beating the analysis of sunspots. The science is good. Very good.

      I'll see your YouTube video, and raise you one:

      video
      video

      And a whole bunch of articles:

      article
      article
      article
      article
      article
      article

    19. Re:Well, now we'll know. by TigerTime · · Score: 1

      I thought the theory was that the temperature of Earth increases as the number of sunspots on the Sun increases.

    20. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1, Troll

      Yes, it has. Check the articles I linked to above.

    21. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Yes, I had it backwards. It is a positive correlation, not a negative one. But not for the reasons you mention. The sunspot activity tends to blow away the solar winds, allowing more radiation to get through to Earth's surface.

    22. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      On the contrary. It is anything but weak. It is a firmly established correlation. Please see the links I posted above.

      People are talking about warming occurring for just a few years, and that is completely meaningless against the long-term trends. A few years mean nothing. But even if that were not so, the major determining factor is the LENGTH of the solar cycles, not the height. And we have had some long cycles.

    23. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Agreed, as I have acknowledged above. Just an oops on my part.

    24. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      There are multiple cycles at work, not just the famous 10.7 year cycle. But even that cycle is highly variable... and actually that is the point: it is the LENGTH of the cycles that correspond to temperature, not the amplitude. And we have had some pretty long cycles just lately.

    25. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      As that saying goes: there is no "disagree" button, and troll, off-topic, and overrated are not substitutes.

    26. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For the last 8 years it did. Also you're ignoring all other factors such as volcanos.

    27. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Because an 8 year coincidence overrides a 50 year non-correlation? Please... that's the very essence of cherrypicking data.

    28. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Repossessed · · Score: 1

      Do you have any citable sources? Those are blog postings and new sites (which is even worse than a blog).

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    29. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "If that correlation were indeed true, then the recent solar minimum would have been correlated with low temperatures, and hence would have been masking some of the effect of global warming-- in other words, that greenhouse-effect warming is actually occurring to a greater extent than the data shows."

      If that correlation were indeed true (and it is being tested by CERN as we speak), then it is NOT true to say that it would have been 'masking Global Warming'. The correlation would have been the main CAUSE of global warming, and CO2 would have been comparatively insignificant.

      Why is that that true believers in AGW caused by CO2 always take it as proven that CO2 is the 'cause of all our ills' when in reality that has never been proven, and is now looking increasingly unlikely?

    30. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      "If that correlation were indeed true, then the recent solar minimum would have been correlated with low temperatures, and hence would have been masking some of the effect of global warming-- in other words, that greenhouse-effect warming is actually occurring to a greater extent than the data shows."

      If that correlation were indeed true (and it is being tested by CERN as we speak), then it is NOT true to say that it would have been 'masking Global Warming'. The correlation would have been the main CAUSE of global warming, and CO2 would have been comparatively insignificant.

      The sun is slightly brighter when it is active. More sunspots would mean higher temperatures, and hence the recent low solar activity would have meant slightly decreases in average temperature. This would mask an increase due to other causes.

      The correlation is, however, extremely weak, and not statistically significant. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/astro/sunspots.php

      If you're proposing that the Maunder minimum correlates with the "little ice age," by the way, you have to be proposing low sunspots correlates with low temperature. If you suddenly start proposing the opposite, in order to explain recent high temperatures, then you have to come up with yetanotherad hoc explanation, on top of that, to explain why low solar activity didn't cause a "little hot age" during the Maunder minimum.

      Why is that that true believers in AGW caused by CO2 always take it as proven that CO2 is the 'cause of all our ills'

      Don't be silly. Anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of a small, but measurable, increase in average global temperature. This temperature increase is a detectable deviation away from the statistical variations due to natural causes, and is now quite well understood.

      It is most certainly not "the cause of all our ills". It is, however, a real effect, and if we continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere, the amount of warming will increase. This is physics.

      when in reality that has never been proven, and is now looking increasingly unlikely?

      Why is it that AGW deniers will support any theory no matter how wacky if it supports their pre-existing beliefs, but have no interest in paying attention to actual science?

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    31. Re:Well, now we'll know. by MightyDrunken · · Score: 1

      As that saying goes: there is no "disagree" button, and troll, off-topic, and overrated are not substitutes.

      Or maybe climate is a complex beast and if you want you can probably find a paper to support your position. Therefore to truly understand you need to know the majority of the subject and its recent findings. Please read chapter 2 pages 188-192
      Here is a general paper on the subject.
      Of course I don't really expect you will be swayed.

    32. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Again, could you please tell me which trend to worry about ?

      The last 10 years there has been a -large- cooling trend (more temp difference in 10 years than global warming produces in 200 years), next year (or -perhaps- the year after) should be the coldest point in this trend, after which temp should go back up
      The last 200 years, there has been a -tiny- warming trend ("global warming").
      The last 800 years (since the "little ice age") there has been a -quite large- warming trend
      The last 9000 years there has been a massive warming trend. Since -just about the start of human civilization give or take 100 years- temperature has risen almost 15 degrees worldwide.
      The last 20000 years there has been a -huge- cooling trend, and, worse, it is part of a pattern that seems to suggest temperature will drop 15 degrees worldwide (to just 5 degrees celcius) between now and -oh- another 10.000 years or-so
      The last 200000 years there has been a series of warming-cooling, again suggesting temperature is getting ready to drop quickly

      So, tell me, clearly I should panic. But why ? Because it's going to warm or because it's going to cool ? If you calculate the energy involved, it is a ridiculous suggesting that we would be able to do anything about it.

      One other historical point : a three degree drop in temperature was responsible for several western cities to starve to the last man. A three degree gain in temperature, later on, was almost certainly responsible for a quadrupling of agricultural capacity.

      Therefore if climate is to change, pray to God that the temperature rises. We humans -and every other plant and animal except perhaps reptiles- do VERY well in warm climates, and VERY poor in cold climates. That includes average worldwide temperatures ten degrees above what we have today : humans thrive in those conditions. Temperature even a mere 3 degrees below what we have today, and everything north of New York becomes uninhabitable. If temperature drops 3 degrees Canada will cease to exist in a matter of years.

    33. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Good job with the anecdotal evidence. Lets see some results from real scientists, not armchair scientists.

    34. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Sources were referenced in both the videos and the articles. I would think that a few minutes with Google should lead you to them.

    35. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Repossessed · · Score: 1

      Wikipedia is not a citable source, nor does it have the details necessary for me to do a peer review.

      None of your links have any actual data to them, they do not have citations which include the data. They do not include the equations used to come to the conclusions either. Without those, there is no way to determine if the theory has merit.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    36. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I see. So a presentation by a University professor about his research project is not self-citing?

      Are you completely inept at Google? You can't find his name or the research he was demonstrating?

      Look, bud. This is not a peer-reviewed journal itself. If you can't find the data from the information given (I did), then just blow it off and say you don't believe it. I don't care one way or another. But I am not going to spend a half hour looking it up again just for you.

    37. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Repossessed · · Score: 1

      I have no interest in believing thing or not believing them, I have an interest in knowing if they are true.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    38. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Look, guy. I literally just spent 10 seconds on Google and found plenty of information about David Archibald, including a new paper he published just this month.

      Do you own damned homework, and stop demanding to be spoon-fed by others. I won't respond to you again.

    39. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Repossessed · · Score: 1

      And yet you are incapable of providing me with that information.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    40. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      NO, just unwilling, you lazy ass. When I was young (NOT that damned long ago), finding information like this meant spending a day at the library finding out what books contained the information, then arranging for inter-library loans, and waiting a week to a month or even longer for the books to even get there.

      I am not Al Gore, to pretend that I "invented the internet". But I have spent a good part of my life helping to build the infrastructure that brings this information to your fingertips. And if you are too goddamned lazy to lift those fingertips to even bother to look something the fuck up, when you so easily can, then I am NOT going to help you!

      Is there anything unclear about that???

    41. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On the contrary. It is anything but weak. It is a firmly established correlation. Please see the links I posted above.

      I know you've admitted your mistake, but you seem oblivious to the ramifications of the difference it makes! If the positive

      correlation between is true it implies that we would have experienced colder average temperatures in the 20th Century than were actually recorded, because of the overall lower number of sunspots. Something had to cause the offset in temperatures and the most likely mechanism to do this would be the increased CO2 released from buring fossil fuels.

    42. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're suggesting that other people should embark on a wild goose chase to try to find respectable references behind the pseudo-scientific sites that you clearly believe are more rigorous than Nature and Science? Curiously, you haven't even responded to the reasonable and insightful comments by Geoffrey Landis in this very page. I guess it really IS true that "You can't reason someone out of a position that she didn't herself into in the first place." Incidentally, I know this won't sway you, but I study the climate in my day job and all your posts prove is that you've never taken graduate-level classes in this area. Every serious climatologist that I've met at the conferences agrees with the mountain of evidence that show sunspots aren't strongly correlated with climate. Again, see Geoffrey's posts.

    43. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "The sun is slightly brighter when it is active. More sunspots would mean higher temperatures, and hence the recent low solar activity would have meant slightly decreases in average temperature. This would mask an increase due to other causes. "

      Except that is not the way it works. If you had done your homework (or even watched the YouTube videos I posted above), you would know that it is the length of the sunspot periods that correspond to temperature changes, not the amplitude. Therefore this argument is meaningless.

      "If you're proposing that the Maunder minimum correlates with the 'little ice age,' by the way, you have to be proposing low sunspots correlates with low temperature. If you suddenly start proposing the opposite, in order to explain recent high temperatures, then you have to come up with yetanotherad hoc explanation, on top of that, to explain why low solar activity didn't cause a 'little hot age' during the Maunder minimum."

      I have already stated in several replies here that it is a positive correlation, not a negative one. That was just a stupid mistake on my part.

      "Don't be silly. Anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of a small, but measurable, increase in average global temperature. This temperature increase is a detectable deviation away from the statistical variations due to natural causes, and is now quite well understood."

      That is the most ridiculous thing I have heard to date. It is NOT known, precisely because it has been impossible to statistically separate it from other influencing factors. (Including sunspots!) While many scientists believe that it probably has some effect, nobody has yet managed to measure it with any real statistical significance. Where did you get this idea, anyway? Do you have any sources that purport to have this measurement? The fact is that such a beast does not exist! The NOAA article you linked to states: "But the jury is still out on how much sunspots can (or do) affect the Earth's climate. Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun... For example, how does one sort out whether a long-term weather change was caused by sunspots, or maybe a coinciding El Nino or La Nina?"

      So the article that you linked to argues against you. First, it does not state that the correlation is weak. On the contrary, if you had watched those YouTube videos I linked to, you would know that the correlation is further supported by variations in sea life and sediment, for a very long range of time into the past. Further, the article also states (see the quote above), that we do not know how to effectively separate these measurements from natural phenomena, which is contrary to your claim. And once again, if you had done your homework, you would know that the sunspot warming model is based on the length of sunspot periods and how they affect the solar winds, and do not rely on the "slight increase in energy" directly.

      And contrary to popular belief, the troposphere has not been warming to the degree it would have to, were the greenhouse models of warming correct. But they are not. They have some very serious flaws. Further, again contrary to what you say about measurements, even the IPCC stated in its 2007 report that the chances that man is having any effect on ocean levels are no better than 50:50. That is not a statistically "measurable" effect! And that from the main pundits who are "on your side" of this argument. Let's face it. Most of the science that is used to support the greenhouse warming model come from the IPCC Assessment reports, and much of that "science" has been shown to be flawed, not to mention that the reports themselves are heavily politicized, and their conclusions do not match the actual science that they reference. Below I link to a letter from Chris Landsea, who is the one who actually did the research on whether hurricanes and typhoons would increase in num

    44. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Mon Dieu! Quantity != quality. You'd get a lot more respect if you'd simply link to one or two legitimate, peer-reviewed articles instead of dozens of pseudo-scientific websites. I don't have time to relieve you of your many misconceptions, but here are the most glaring errors:

      On the contrary, if you had watched those YouTube videos I linked to...

      We're scientists, not preteen girls looking for cat videos. Link to peer-reviewed articles or expect to be ignored.

      Anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of a small, but measurable, increase in average global temperature. This temperature increase is a detectable deviation away from the statistical variations due to natural causes, and is now quite well understood."

      That is the most ridiculous thing I have heard to date. It is NOT known, precisely because it has been impossible to statistically separate it from other influencing factors. (Including sunspots!) While many scientists believe that it probably has some effect, nobody has yet managed to measure it with any real statistical significance. Where did you get this idea, anyway? Do you have any sources that purport to have this measurement? The fact is that such a beast does not exist!

      Geoffrey's statement is most certainly not ridiculous. I suggest looking at the IPCC 4th report. Download chapter 3, open the PDF to page 15 (which is labeled 249) and look at figure 3.6. The trend obtained from the data in figure 3.6 is 0.65 C plus or minus 0.2 C over the period from 1901 to 2005. The report notes that this rate is higher than at any other point since the 11th century. Meehl 2004 shows that this warming can't be explained by natural forcings alone, but including anthropogenic CO2 emissions matches the observations very well. And, yes, those "natural forcings" include variations in solar output, which can be measured by satellites at L1 so there's no need to search for weak correlations in sunspot data.

      Furthermore, as I've repeatedly argued, Vostok shows that the current CO2 level is higher than it's been in half a million years. If you don't think that CO2 can warm the planet, I suggest you remember your sophomore-level physics classes and examine the spectrum of the sun. Then open a textbook and examine the absorption spectrum of CO2. Notice that the peak of the sun's radiation goes through? Now open your thermodynamics textbook and calculate the blackbody radiation of a planet at 286K. Notice that the CO2 absorbs more of this radiation.

      That's why scientists say that CO2 is warming the planet. It's not exactly cutting-edge science.

      Most of the science that is used to support the greenhouse warming model come from the IPCC Assessment reports, and much of that "science" has been shown to be flawed, not to mention that the reports themselves are heavily politicized, and their conclusions do not match the actual science that they reference.

      That's exactly backwards. The IPCC reports are simply compilations of pre-existing, peer-reviewed science. I've read their reports and talked with scientists whose work is referenced in the IPCC reports. No scientist I've met (in public or private) thinks your conspiracy theory is valid. In fact, I've personally confirmed the mass loss in Greenland's glaciers with my own research. I've seen climate change happening with my own data and my own personal algorithms. Does that mean I'm part of the conspiracy too?

      Below I link to a letter from Chris Landsea, who is the one who actually did the research on wh

    45. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      "that is not the way it works. If you had done your homework (or even watched the YouTube videos I posted above), you would know ..."

      Yes, that summarizes it in a nutshell. The real scientists, and people interested in learning about real science, cite work published in scientific journals. The fringe cite YouTube videos.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    46. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      This post was made later than some of the others, so I did not see it at first. I would like to answer some of this.

      "We're scientists, not preteen girls looking for cat videos. Link to peer-reviewed articles or expect to be ignored."

      Then why haven't YOU been doing so up until now??? Can you say double standard? Sure, I knew you could.

      "I suggest looking at the IPCC 4th report. Download chapter 3, open the PDF to page 15 (which is labeled 249) and look at figure 3.6..."

      Your link did not work, but I did not have trouble finding the part you mention. I should mention first off that I am not very impressed by a chart that only goes back to about 1840. (I am aware that instrumental data only goes back that far, but there is a lot of other data available.) Regardless, the main point is that this chart merely shows a temperature trend. It does not show what you purport to be demonstrating: that CO2 causes significant warming. What were you trying to show me? That CO2 and temperature were both going up rapidly? I already knew that. So what? Remember: correlation alone (where it does in fact exist, this one chart does not even show that) does not imply causation. That is one of the most elementary scientific principles.

      The 3rd and 4th IPCC Assessment Reports are not credible sources. Much of the science cited by the reports may be reliable... but that is not the same thing. Chris Landsea is hardly the only scientist who has sought to have themselves removed from IPCC's references, as some of those links would show you if you bothered to actually look at them. While I clearly stated that some of those links might represent biased sources (go look... I did), some of them are statements by people who actually did the research cited by the IPCC... and they disagree with its conclusions.

      I am not posting and have not posted links to "cat videos"... if you want to make a real argument, kindly refrain from exaggerating and making straw-man arguments.

      Further, as Chris Landsea clearly stated in his letter: "All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record." Therefore, the statement in AR4 that "It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity." is likely an exaggeration, not supported by the actual research. After all... the man who was doing that research quit because of the exaggerations and the politics.

      As I have previously stated, one of my main contentions has been that some of the conclusions of the IPCC reports are not supported by the actual research. And (again, look at those links... some of them are straight out of the horse's mouth) I am hardly the only one saying so. Are you seriously suggesting the the conclusions of the IPCC Assessment Reports are not politicized? I think you should do some research. I have provided some evidence... good evidence, not cat videos. (Not all of it good, certainly, but that has been covered already, and I will not do so again. Some is.)

      "That's exactly backwards. The IPCC reports are simply compilations of pre-existing, peer-reviewed science."

      That is partially correct, but not entirely. I should have been more clear. It is not the fact that the IPCC reports cite peer-reviewed science that I dispute, but rather whether the conclusions of those reports represent the actual science that is cited. As you can see (IF you look through those links), a number of people who were actually involved in the process do not agree that it is, nor do a great many other reputable scientists who have seen those reports and refutations of them. (Petition Project, fo

    47. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have answered this in my posts to khayman80, Mr. Landis. Please refer to those posts.

    48. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Ah, I see. Like the data behind the "hockey stick" graph that appeared in Nature? Sure. You bet. You might want to have another look at that.

    49. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Therefore, the statement in AR4 that "It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity." is likely an exaggeration, not supported by the actual research.

      Months ago, I was careful to say that hurricane intensity can't be linked to climate change, and that a quick look at the IPCC guidance note on uncertainty indicates that this statement is essentially the weakest statement they could make without being utterly silent. (See table 4.) In fact, I later corrected another poster who was under the impression that a clear correlation between hurricanes and climate change was in the data.

      If the IPCC report had used any other qualifier from table 4, you might have a more convincing point. Furthermore, another paper in Science says "Results show that the increasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in SST [sea surface temperature]." Dr. Landsea is a legitimate scientist, but he's not the only one studying hurricanes, and I fail to see how his claims automatically rule out those of other scientists-- especially when they're making such an weak claim given the observed trends.

      And, yes, those "natural forcings" include variations in solar output, which can be measured by satellites at L1 so there's no need to search for weak correlations in sunspot data.

      Please be specific. "Solar output" can mean many things.

      I was quoting Meehl 2004 in that sentence, which itself quotes Meehl 2003 to show that variations in solar luminosity affect the climate. Of course, Meehl 2004 shows that this effect isn't responsible for the warming in the latter half od the century, which is shown to be due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

      Previously, you cited luminosity data when I had clearly stated that the correlation was with period length, not luminosity.

      That's because, as you now seem to agree, other correlations have been disproven by later research. I was just trying to steer you back towards the only correlation that's well-established in the peer-reviewed literature.

      But the main problem with this sort of approach is that some kind of mechanism other than variations in luminosity would be needed to support your thesis. For example, in this post you claim "The sunspot activity tends to blow away the solar winds, allowing more radiation to get through to Earth's surface."

      This is indeed a claim made in a real journal. But it's far more controversial than you're implying. The maximum impact of this mechanism has been estimated to be responsible for no more than 23% of the 11-year cyclical variation of cloud cover. Furthermore, there's no long term trend in Svensmark's data, which would be necessary to explain the long-term warming trend that's been observed. For more information, see chapter 7.10 of

    50. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I had an oops moment: my statement "because the Earth is 3/4 water" should read "because the Earth's surface is 3/4 water."

    51. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Also, please read "The Wegman report wasn't peer-reviewed, but it did" as "The Wegman report did ...". I'm trying to limit my response to the most constructive statements relative to the scientific debate, and that clause (though true) will be edited out of the final version because I'd rather focus on the science involved in the MM papers which were peer-reviewed.

    52. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Another oops moment! I forgot to include this statement: "Every serious climatologist that I've met at the conferences agrees with the mountain of evidence that show sunspots aren't strongly correlated with climate." I'm sorry for missing it, I'd just run a search for khayman80 without realizing that my first message was anonymous.

    53. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I am happy to have a discussion on the actual points! Okay:

      I might have overstated Mr. Landsea's influence in the situation a little bit. Nevertheless, I do believe his input is valuable and important, in re: his testimony regarding peer review and integrity in the IPCC's process. As I have shown, he is hardly alone, and I did not particularly search out dissent from the IPCC participants: it presented itself as I skimmed over some of the information. I have not listed them all, there are quite a few more. The dissenters are of course not representative of the whole, but they need not be. It is enough that there are a significant number, and that they essentially all complain about the same problem: the fact that those involved in the IPCC reporting and review process who disagreed with a preconceived conclusion were blatantly ignored. If, as you state, you really do respect peer-reviewed science then you cannot ignore this. Nor the fact that many thousands who have independently reviewed the reports disagree with their conclusions.

      "I was quoting Meehl 2004 in that sentence, which itself quotes Meehl 2003 to show that variations in solar luminosity affect the climate. Of course, Meehl 2004 shows that this effect isn't responsible for the warming in the latter half od the century, which is shown to be due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions."

      Right. But luminosity was not the issue under debate. Even if it were, I call foul: you have done here what you accused me of doing earlier. Meehl does not actually show that CO2 causes warming, he relies on the research of others to do so. In fact, while this may be a slight exaggeration, about all Meehl did here was to integrate the work of a number of other authors. Sorry: you clearly stated earlier in this discussion that a such a beast does not count. Please cite the original research.

      "That's because, as you now seem to agree, other correlations have been disproven by later research."

      Well, not exactly. It's because until that point, I was not aware that other possible correlations were ever even taken seriously. After all, if it really were simple luminosity, I daresay a correlation would have been clearly shown in the previous century. But close enough. I do agree -- as I said, tentatively until I look some things up -- that the sunspot data for the last few decades at least does not appear to follow the past, clear and repeatedly demonstrated (not "vague") correlation.

      "This is indeed a claim made in a real journal. But it's far more controversial than you're implying. The maximum impact of this mechanism has been estimated to be responsible for no more than 23% of the 11-year cyclical variation of cloud cover."

      Estimated by whom? I have already shown you at least one peer-reviewed paper (although you objected to the journal's lack of reputation for "hard science") in which the estimation was far over what you state here. (Which, I admit, appears to be validly refuted for a specific period of time.) But if you are going to make an argument, as you seem to be doing here, then refute my source with one of your own, otherwise you are wasting my time. And I am not talking about plain luminosity data. Further, a textbook is anything but a peer-reviewed paper. Would you like me to do a brief review of how many of my high-school and university textbooks contained errors that seem laughable now? Get real. By the time half of them get to publication, they have significant errors. Please stop using double standards. You insisted on peer-reviewed papers as sources. It would be decent of you to at least make some attempt to play by the same rules. I have already stated that I am convinced that the correlation has deviated from the historical norm for the last few decades. But this argument against my former position, by your own standards, is absurd. If you will not accept Energy and Environment as a source because it may not be "sufficiently ha

    54. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I would like to add one more comment:

      As I pointed out, the Mann, et al. report of 1998 (and 99) has been shown (by several separate parties) to have understated the scope of past temperature variations.

      This was not apparent to me at first, but as it turns out, Meehl's climate model has relied upon the data generated in the 1998 Mann study.

      So, at least until some adjustments are made, I have no choice but to consider the Meehl model to have also been successfully refuted.

    55. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      To be clearer: it is well established in the scientific community that climate models are sensitive both to initial conditions, and even slight variations in parameters. When a climate model relies upon past temperature variations that are shown to be inaccurate, to say that the whole model becomes questionable is an understatement.

    56. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      My apologies, but this is the last comment I can write. I'm struggling under the weight of academic deadlines, and I don't want to fail out of school because of my Slashdot addiction...

      Meehl does not actually show that CO2 causes warming, he relies on the research of others to do so. In fact, while this may be a slight exaggeration, about all Meehl did here was to integrate the work of a number of other authors.

      At least you're aware of the exaggeration, if not the magnitude or (more importantly) the fact that this criticism could be applied to any research that expands on previous results... which includes nearly every paper in the history of science.

      This is indeed a claim made in a real journal. But it's far more controversial than you're implying. The maximum impact of this mechanism has been estimated to be responsible for no more than 23% of the 11-year cyclical variation of cloud cover.

      "This is indeed a claim made in a real journal. But it's far more controversial than you're implying. The maximum impact of this mechanism has been estimated to be responsible for no more than 23% of the 11-year cyclical variation of cloud cover."

      Estimated by whom? I have already shown you at least one peer-reviewed paper (although you objected to the journal's lack of reputation for "hard science") in which the estimation was far over what you state here. (Which, I admit, appears to be validly refuted for a specific period of time.) But if you are going to make an argument, as you seem to be doing here, then refute my source with one of your own, otherwise you are wasting my time.

      That estimate was by T. Sloan and A.W. Wolfendale in the article I originally linked... that's the link which was originally followed by "[iop.org]" before you quoted it. Also, the paper you previously found contains similar criticisms of Svensmark 1998 on its second page.

      But there are a lot of complex interactions going on here, including the fact that reflection by CO2 tends to be logarithmic... requiring a doubling of CO2 concentration to equal an incremental increase in reflection. ... Books could be written about it and probably will be.

      Yes, of course. The fact that CO2 absorption depends logarithmically on concentration has been known since 1900 when Angstrom and Koch first measured it in a tube filled with CO2. The absorption dropped by less than 1% when Koch lowered the pressure by 33%, which convinced an entire generation of climatologists that CO2 wasn't dangerous because it was already "saturated." In other words, they believed that adding more CO2 wouldn't warm the planet. ( Ångström, Knut (1900). "Über die Bedeutung des Wasserdampfes und der Kohlensaüres bei der Absorption der Erdatmosphäre." Annalen der Physik 4(3): 720-32. published online 308(12): 720-32 (2006) [doi: 10.1002/andp.19003081208] )

      But this research is 109 years old. Books have already been written about it. As early as 1931, Hulburt used the brand-new theory of quantum mechanics to study absorption in more detail. He concluded that doubling CO2 would warm the Earth by 4C. This is still the conventional method of expressing "climate sensitivity" with respect to CO2. (Although it's important to note that this convention ignores feedback effects which very likely sum up to produce a net positive feedback effect.) His predict

    57. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      ACK! Please read "Joanne Nova who claim that "CO2 is already absorbing all it can!"" as:

      Joanne Nova who claim that "CO2 is already absorbing almost all it can!"

      I'm very sorry for misrepresenting her views. I forgot to include the word "almost" and that will DEFINITELY be corrected in the final version. I really need to go to sleep so I can fix the problems with my own research, though... sorry again.

    58. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Sigh... I'm still wired, increasingly drunk, and just noticed that this statement: "Sadly, I mean that the initial jaw-drop is unusual..." should be changed to "Sadly, I mean that the initial jaw-drop isn't unusual..."

    59. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Also, I've changed this statement: "I'm sorry that I can't provide more personal details" to this: "I'm sorry that I can't provide more details with which to judge this claim"

      Somehow, I didn't realize how UTTERLY STUPID my original version sounded while sober. I think I've hit the Ballmer peak.

    60. Re:Well, now we'll know. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have enjoyed our conversation, rare as it is here. I have not had time to read your latest full reply yet, but I shall.

      By all means, do not miss any of your academic requirements over this! I have no axe to grind, although I admit to a certain tendency to play Devil's Advocate.

    61. Re:Well, now we'll know. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry for being offtopic, but I don't know how to reach you except via a Slashdot comment.

      I just wrote a brief article on climate change that quotes some of your insightful and helpful comments to me in the past.

      I'm scared that this article will be filled up with rude people insulting me, or (MUCH worse) acolytes blindly believing in whatever I say. So if you see any mistakes in my reasoning or have any questions, please leave a comment at the form at the VERY bottom of the page. I'd like for the first couple of people who do that to be polite and capable of disagreeing agreeably. That's why I sent it to you first.

  15. Re:Oh sure... by mcgrew · · Score: 3, Funny

    Sun? Didn't they go out of business or something?

  16. Re:Oh sure... by east+coast · · Score: 3, Insightful

    like ANYTHING Fox News allegedly reports about the so-called "sun" would be worth listening to.

    If you have to censor some from speaking out about science for fear of the scrutiny maybe your science isn't really science at all. Anyone who questions the validity of a theory should be heard. I know that there will be those who will try to mock you but the science is the truth in and of itself, not a side effect of your belief in the science.

    --
    Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
  17. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by blueg3 · · Score: 4, Informative

    No, the magnetic field is real but invisible. Magnetic field lines, on the other hand, are simply a mechanism for representing (e.g., on paper) magnetic field orientation and strength. The lines themselves are not real. (Compare with, for example, a topographical map. The height of the earth's surface is real, but the lines on a topographical map are a representation of height; they're not real.)

  18. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Very strange, as magnetic field lines are entirely imaginary.

    No, they're quite real. Being immaterial aspects of electro-magnetism,
    they are, however, normally invisible. Here, however, you can see the
    superhot plasma flowing along them, much as you can get iron filings
    on a piece of paper to do with an ordinary magnet.

  19. Re:Oh sure... by CannonballHead · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Oh sure...

    Like ANY opinion Anonymous Cowards have about the so-called "Fox News" would be worth listening to.

    ;)

  20. Re:Oh sure... by eln · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Anyone who questions the validity of a theory should be heard.

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard. Saying anyone who questions a theory should be heard might sound nice in theory, but in reality it means you have a bunch of people throwing out unsubstantiated garbage in order to muddy the waters and further their own agendas, which are rarely motivated by scientific concerns.

  21. Global Warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    The increase in temperature of planet Earth caused by Global Warming has changed the ambient temperature in our Solar System ever so slightly. This has caused irreparable damage the the Sun's delicate jet stream. The Cap and Trade bill will be too late to prevent Supernova.

    1. Re:Global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, sunspot activity is due to copyright extension.

  22. It's actually not much of a sunspot group. by tjstork · · Score: 5, Informative

    Go check it out at http://www.solarcycle24.com/

    This guy's everything about the sun that one can track. In particular, he has an image of the sun on the upper left hand corner that shows how pathetic this sunspot group.

    I wouldn't say the sunspot drought is over, until there is sustained progress.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:It's actually not much of a sunspot group. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 4, Interesting

      As a space physicist, I agree. Certainly we have seen an increase in the number of sunspots in the last month but most die out rapidly. However, other solar activity, such as corona holes (of which there are two) are becoming more common. The current set of holes should cause activity at the Earth on or about the 12th of July.

  23. Will it really matter? by Shivetya · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because I betcha that if Congress gets Cap and Trade in place, throw in some Kyoto claims, that in a few years if we see a cooling trend beyond our current one, they will lay claim to proof they were right.

    In other words, the salesmen won. No matter the out come they will claim to have proven themselves. In the end all we get will be more embedded taxes.

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    1. Re:Will it really matter? by Bemopolis · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      So unlike you, who sounds completely objective and scientifically knowledgeable.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    2. Re:Will it really matter? by SnarfQuest · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If the temp doesn't drop, then Obama will blaim it on Bush, just like everything else.

      --
      Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
    3. Re:Will it really matter? by jdgeorge · · Score: 1

      To the best of my knowledge, nobody is predicting a long-term cooling trend based on any activity promoted by those in favor of reducing and managing carbon dioxide emissions. The intent of those efforts (whether or not they succeed) is to slow down or halt the long term warming trend.

    4. Re:Will it really matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because I betcha that if Congress gets Cap and Trade in place, throw in some Kyoto claims, that in a few years if we see a cooling trend beyond our current one, they will lay claim to proof they were right.

      In other words, the salesmen won. No matter the out come they will claim to have proven themselves. In the end all we get will be more embedded taxes.

      If the outcome is a repeat of the little ice age, the claim will be interesting.

    5. Re:Will it really matter? by Aluvus · · Score: 1

      Suppose that such a cooling trend were to occur mainly because of Cap and Trade and friends, but sunspot activity coincidentally changed over the same period. How loudly do you think certain individuals would declare that it was all sunspots all along?

      Or perhaps it is only the people that disagree with you that can be irrational fools.

      --
      Never mistake "can" for "should".
    6. Re:Will it really matter? by BeerCur · · Score: 1

      If it gets us off Oil, I'm all in favor of more "embedded taxes" being imposed. Imagine not having to give a flying carpet ride about the Middle East and the tax savings / spending that would provide... Wot.

      --
      It's not what your Sig can do for you, but what you can do for your for your Sig.
    7. Re:Will it really matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I betcha..........Palin are you Shivetya?????one-t-eleven!

  24. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by gr8_phk · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Yeah, because the field is not uniform the iron filings clump around the actual physical lines. It's the same thing with gravity - the field is not uniform, but concentrated along specific lines protruding out of the earth. Sometimes you get tripped up when you walk through one of the bigger gravitational field lines. Here in Michigan you can clearly feel them when driving your car through them - it feels like the road is all bumpy.

    *end sarcasm*

    The comment that they are imaginary does suggest that the plasma (or something) on the sun somehow concentrates the field much the way iron filings concentrate them. Once you have filings it concentrates the field and you get more filings attached to the end thus creating lines. Similar must occur on the sun or the lines would not be visible.

  25. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    You BETTER not be knocking the Time Cube, biach.

  26. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Gerzel · · Score: 1

    Indeed, what is the reason behind the field lines, by current theory?

  27. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Gerzel · · Score: 1

    Isn't plasma a decent conductor? The electrons moving pretty much as they please?

  28. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by t0rc · · Score: 0

    Isn't it entirely possible that the lines themselves, made of either plasma or iron filings, are actually caused/created by the amount of intensity of magnitized matierial present in the field? (the magntized material interaciting with the other material itself)

  29. Re:Oh sure... by halivar · · Score: 1

    Which is why American kooks are twice as smart as European kooks... because they're right twice as often.

  30. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by blueg3 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    My density is fairly close to that of water, just like everyone else. I do have a degree in physics, though, if that helps.

  31. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who's dense? You just backed up his point.

  32. Re:Oh sure... by clone53421 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Anonymous Coward: ready to doubt that shiny yellow thing is really the "sun", for no reason other than Fox News said it was.

    Yeah, everything Fox says is automatically false.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  33. Man saved Earth? by Spy+Handler · · Score: 4, Interesting

    IIRC, the last time sunspots were at a minimum like this, earth was in the little ice age, and hundreds of millions of people died due to crops freezing, glaciers overrunning towns, disease, etc.

    So maybe we're supposed to be in another little ice age, but all the greenhouse gases warmed the planet and saved us?

    O____O

    1. Re:Man saved Earth? by JobyOne · · Score: 1

      "Saving" the Earth is a very anthropocentric way of putting it

      Assuming you're right we may have accidentally "saved" our own skins, along with a number of other species, but we haven't "saved" the Earth at all. We've impacted the progression of climate and evolution, sure, but the Earth was here for billions of years before us and will be here for billions of years after we're extinct (or off this rock, or evolved into something more exciting if you're feeling optimistic).

      We have plenty of power to save or destroy our current ecobiological paradigm, but the Earth itself is a little bigger than us.

      --
      Porquoi?
    2. Re:Man saved Earth? by The_Duck271 · · Score: 2, Informative

      IIRC, the last time sunspots were at a minimum like this, earth was in the little ice age

      No; during the little ice age there was ~50 years of almost no sunspots; we've only had ~2. There was a solar minimum earlier this century deeper than this one (unless this one goes on for a while yet).

    3. Re:Man saved Earth? by Spy+Handler · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah you're right, it should've been "Man may have saved its own civilization"

      Personally I prefer ice age fauna myself, I think sabertooth tigers and and Wooly Mammoths are really cool. Also the sea levels were so low, there was a huge landmass called Beringia where Bearing Sea is now, and the east coast of USA extended 500 miles beyond the current shoreline.

      But however interesting it may be, a full ice age would be a total catastrophe for human civilization, probably 95% of humans would be wiped out.

      It would be cool though, if mankind suddenly got hold of super technology (maybe from Outsiders or Puppeteers) and migrated to Ringworld or something, and Earth reverted to an ice age...

    4. Re:Man saved Earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You clearly have no idea what the hell you're talking about. This current minimum is longer than expected by only about 1.5 years now. It's called the Solar Sunspot Cycle, look it up. Between the mid 1600s and early 1700s was a period of about *70 years* where almost no sunspot activity was seen. Do you know what this caused? A drop in London's average temperature of about half a degree Celsius. That's a far cry from your hundreds of millions of dying people eating frozen corn while being trampled over by runaway glaciers that give them the plague. Maybe do a little research before you post stupid crap.

    5. Re:Man saved Earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, during the little ice age, we were able to monitor sunspots? I don't think so.

    6. Re:Man saved Earth? by Buchenskjoll · · Score: 1

      I've seen an estimate of world population at around 500 million people in 1650. So hundreds of millions dying seems quite a lot...

      --
      -- Make America hate again!
    7. Re:Man saved Earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "the last time sunspots were at a minimum like this, earth was in the little ice age"

      According to TFA the last time sunspots were at a minimum like this was in 1913. I don't think there was a little ice age in 1913.
      This minimum has so far lasted like 1 or 2 years, and i'm pretty sure the even a "little" ice age lasts longer than that.

    8. Re:Man saved Earth? by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Hundreds of millions of high-footprint humans dying would be bad in which way, exactly?

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
  34. Re:Oh sure... by Etcetera · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you have to censor some from speaking out about science for fear of the scrutiny maybe your science isn't really science at all. Anyone who questions the validity of a theory should be heard. I know that there will be those who will try to mock you but the science is the truth in and of itself, not a side effect of your belief in the science.

    This basically sums up the postmodern approach to science. When all truth is relative, then science itself has no basis for an exalted place in the hierarchy of rationality. With nothing to "prove" itself except itself, science becomes a rolling definition of "what works for me, today." From there, it's a small step to seeing science as a means, not an end... and specifically: a means of enacting social change.

    Presto. :/

  35. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    "The iron filings in the photo appear to be aligning themselves with discrete field lines, but in actuality, they are creating the field lines by concentrating the magnetic field along a random topographic path, and not along any line that actually exists in the field. In other words, the lines formed by the iron filings would not exist without the iron filings, and so the magnetic field lines you see are a not a demonstration of a lines in the magnetic field. Magnetic fields are continuous, and do not have discrete lines."

    Wikipedia

  36. Re:Oh sure... by nsayer · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Depends on how broken it is. If it's just slow or fast, it will be right much, much less than twice a day. Only analog 12 hour clocks that are actually stopped are right twice a day, and that assumes the hands are still intact and point unambiguously. Digital clocks that are blinking 12:00 could be interpreted also as being correct twice a day (providing they lack an AM/PM indicator - if not, then they're right once a day). Some digital clocks blink until set, but continue to count time, which would make them perpetually incorrect unless they just happened to be started at 12:00.

  37. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Magnetic field lines are not really like the lines on a topographic map. The lines of a magnetic field represent paths from high potential to low potential, rather than delineations of equal-potential regions.

    It's more like a river. The river flows perpendicular to the lines on the topographic map, from high to low, and its "line" is quite real, while the lines on the topographic map are not. Thus it is an unfair comparison to say magnetic field lines are "imaginary" in the same sense that contour lines on a map are. You cannot physically demonstrate the contour lines on a map, whereas you can demonstrate (with water or iron filings, as the case may be) a path from high potential to low potential.

    IOW, inasmuch as there is a very real path that a drop of water will take when placed at any specific point on a 3-D surface, there is also a very real path that an electron will follow from a specific starting point in a 3-D electromagnetic field.

    The lines themselves are imaginary, but they are real paths. Of course, there are infinitely many of the paths, densely packed, and so we pick only a few representative paths and call them the "magnetic field lines".

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  38. Re:Oh sure... by nsayer · · Score: 1

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard.

    Tell that to Pons and Fleischmann.

    They might get a Nobel yet.

  39. and in other news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the Dow Industrials climbed 400 points.

  40. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Toonol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They're no more real than latitude lines. The magnetic field is continuous, it doesn't possess discrete lines. Objects IN the field can form a line, but that is more of a spontaneous symmetry breaking effect... I.E., iron filings could form a hundred distinguishable lines, or a thousand. The filings experiment is neat, but I think it gave millions of schoolkids the idea that there is an actual number of preferred lines running from one end of the magnet to the other.

    A cone doesn't have a finite number of preferred paths down from the top. But if you pour water on the top, the water will run downhill and form a number of discrete streams. That does mean that there are 'lines of gravity'.

  41. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    /facepalm

  42. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 1

    Magnetic field LINES are a mathematical construct. The magnetic field is real. Iron filings are just a way to visualize it. If there were "lines" then what would be in the space between them - couldn't be magnetic field lines... The magnetic field is continuous, therefore no lines.

  43. Re:Oh sure... by AaxelB · · Score: 2, Funny

    No, I'm pretty sure they're still around. They're the ones with the topless chick on the third page, right?

  44. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Oh, and LCD clocks...

  45. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Toonol · · Score: 1

    Argh. "That DOESN'T mean that there are 'lines of gravity'."

  46. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 1

    Magnetic field LINES are a mathematical construct. The magnetic field is real. Iron filings and plasma etc simply flow in the field. If there were lines, what would be between the lines? There could not be more lines. Therefore it is a continuous field. Iron filings simply represent that field.

    Plasma on the other hand is an entirely different case because it is made up of charged particles. Plasma is therefore affected by the electric field as well as magnetic field. In fact, plasma flows with the rules of magnetohydrodynamics.

  47. Re:Oh sure... by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    Depends on how broken it is.

    Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  48. Global warming by edmicman · · Score: 2, Funny

    Obviously it's man-made global (solar?) warming that is causing this increased sunspot activity...

  49. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    By that logic, a riverbed only makes a line when it has water flowing in it.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  50. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by blueg3 · · Score: 1

    Not true at all. My local lake physically demonstrates a gravitational equipotential line, which are, at that scale, the same as contour height lines.

    Magnetic field "lines" are fairly similar to fluid flow lines, except with fluid flow lines, you're generally representing the fluid flow using exemplar paths -- so, the lines illustrated are actually fluid particle paths. (You don't generally talk about fluid flow in the context of a potential but no fluid.) Magnetic field lines, on the other hand, are representing the magnetic field -- not the interaction between the magnetic field and charged particles. The magnetic field (and its "lines") are the same even if there are no interacting charged particles.

  51. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by DriedClexler · · Score: 1

    Um, if it helps you to understand it that way, sure, magnetic field lines are indeed imaginary.

    Now, you just need to remember that electric field lines are real, since they make a 90 degree angle with magnetic field lines.

    --
    Information theory is life. The rest is just the KL divergence.
  52. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by blueg3 · · Score: 1

    Um, no.

  53. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    Unless you're going to flood the entire planet, you'll have a hard time illustrating the lines on Mount Everest. I'll admit that contour lines are sometimes demonstrable, but not as easily as the paths perpendicular to them.

    Besides which, if the contour line that delineates the lake's boundary is a "real" line because there's water on one side of it, that basically argues for the fact that the field lines are just as "real" since they are similarly demonstrable using charged/magnetic particles. Difference being, I can't think of much of any way to physically demonstrate the equipotential regions of a magnetic field the way a lake would show the equipotential regions of potential energy.

    You don't generally talk about fluid flow in the context of a potential but no fluid.

    Continental divide.

    Anyway, yeah, I'm just pointing out that the magnetic field lines are more analogous to fluid flow, not the contour lines, on a 3-D surface.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  54. Re:Oh sure... by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard.

    Tell that to Pons and Fleischmann.

    They might get a Nobel yet.

    Probably not.

    If cold fusion turns out to be, as it looks, a combination of erroneous measurements and wishful thinking, then they will be ignored and eventually forgotten.

    On the other hand, if cold fusion turns out to have been a real effect after all, then somebody should hunt them down and shoot them, because by their actions, they made it look like bad measurements, chicanery, and hype, and thus made sure nobody would take it seriously. If there really was something there, their actions set science back significantly.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  55. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The 12 hour or 1/2 Day clock is an intended EVIL against humanity - indicting every human on Earth as Dumb, Educated Stupid and Evil - for imaginary Cubed Earth has 4 Days within simultaneous rotation.

    http://timecube.com/

  56. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    Just as a continuous line contains infinitely many points, a continuous field in 3-D space can contain infinitely many lines. Just sayin'.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  57. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 2, Informative

    That they are discrete, perhaps, is a misconception. You won't hear me claiming they're discrete.

    A continuous field contains infinitely many paths from high to low potential, all of which are "lines". A representative few are used to approximate the field when we're drawing it, which leads to the misunderstanding about them being discrete.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  58. Sunspots Return by Rik+Sweeney · · Score: 1

    That's what happens when you stop using Clearasil!

    1. Re:Sunspots Return by rhyder128k · · Score: 1

      If the sunspot activity continues to increase, we'll have to send a mission to fire a massive tube of spot cream into the sun rather like in the film Sunshine.

      --
      Michael Reed, freelance tech writer.
  59. For all your space weather needs by The_Duck271 · · Score: 1

    Those interested in this kind of stuff may want to check out http://spaceweather.com/ -- it's like a weather site, for space!

  60. Re:Oh sure... by thedonger · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure get your meaning. My observation is that people believe what reinforces there existing beliefs. Regarding a finding which goes against their beliefs, they are willing to take that one in a million chance and - like Jim Carey in "Dumb and Dumber" - say, "So your saying there's a chance?" OTOH, if something they believe has a one in a hundred chance of being wrong, they will stand behind it firmly as irrefutable proof.

    All that said, I really don't think people have changed very much since we climbed down from the proverbial tree and had our first drum circle.

    --
    Help fight poverty: Punch a poor person.
  61. Re:Oh sure... by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    Anyone who questions the validity of a theory should be heard.

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard..

    I'll have to agree with eln. There's somebody out there who's going to be questioning anything you can think of. There just isn't time to pay attention to everybody, no matter how wacky.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  62. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

    I almost had a degree in art but dropped out. My density is closer to methylene iodide.

    --
    I drank what? -- Socrates
  63. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by kaputtfurleben · · Score: 1

    Magnetic field lines are not really like a river. The lines of a magnetic field represent paths around a center rather than paths from high potential to low potential. It's more like a car. The wheels on a car move around a central point, creating a "circle" which is quite real, while the line of a river is not. There, now it's a car analogy.

  64. Re:Oh sure... by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 0, Troll

    Somebody modded this 'Troll'?

    That means a dedicated Fox viewer has mod points to spend. Just be glad s/he is spending them here in a silly forum rather than actually doing anything in the real world. Because that would be dangerous.

    Anyway. . , the best lies are seeded with just enough truth to keep you listening and trusting. This is why it doesn't matter if they happen to be right once in (very long) while. Over-all their intention is to harm your mind, so it's best to sever your connection to them altogether. There are far better sources of information out there.

    Mind you, ALL big media is misleading, even the 'good' guys avoid talking about real stuff. Fox is just the Strawman for everybody to poke at and keep the circus spinning. Those sad people who actually take Fox at face value are so low down the food chain of awareness that they essentially deserve what's coming. It might take a hundred more lives or so, but they'll learn eventually. Right now, however, they're just above "Retarded Child" on the awareness index. Pity them, but treat them like a roaring house fire. Stand well back and certainly don't get intimately involved!

    -FL

  65. 2012 may not be "2012" then by peter303 · · Score: 2, Funny

    If the this sunspot cycle had kept on schedule, then the peak activity would have been around 2012. Each cycle Earthlings become more dependent on their satellites (e.g. GPS) and electric grid. Both of these can be severely disrupted by large solar storms. My pet hypothesis is that nastiness in 2012 could have been caused by the peak, but that is unlikely now.

  66. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by drerwk · · Score: 1

    A plane is continuous, and it is made up of an infinite number of discrete lines. Just like there are an infinite number of latitude lines.

  67. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 2, Informative

    That is one way to think about it but that isn't entirely correct. A line is a discrete mathematical construct. A field is a continuous function but a "line" is not. Think about it this way: let's say you have a piece of paper and some "string". You place several piece of string on the paper. There is "space" in between the pieces of string. You then proceed to add pieces of string in between the others. You can continue to do this ad infinitum (assuming smaller and smaller pieces of string) but they will never match the piece of paper, i.e. the continuous field. They can approximate it but it will never be the same.

    In this way, the magnetic field "line" is a mathematical construct used to determine topology. Electric field lines and gravity field lines are much the same thing. There is nothing wrong with saying "magnetic field line" save that iron filings or plasma or whatever is not on a line but in a field. They can be used to visualize the field, so to speak.

  68. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 1

    Oops - I should have said that a field is a continuous function in 2 or 3 dimensions but a line is not... a line is continuous in 1 dimension (essentially a line is a 1-D field).

  69. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by mathfeel · · Score: 1

    Magnetic field lines are not really like the lines on a topographic map. The lines of a magnetic field represent paths from high potential to low potential, rather than delineations of equal-potential regions.

    You are talking about electric field. Magnetic field do not have a scalar potential to be talking about "high" and "low" from (which is related to the gradient of the potential). The vector potential of a magnetic field is very difficult to find common analogies with.

    --
    The only possible interpretation of any research whatever in the 'social sciences' is: some do, some don't
  70. Of course they returned! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They do this every cycle. It's not exactly news. Next we'll be seeing news stories like "this is the last year with all even digits for a decade" about facts that have been known for the last two thousand years.

  71. PLEASE READ!! by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    Okay, everybody! I have already admitted several times that I had it backward. It was just an "oops" moment on my part. But please read the rest of the thread before continuing to post "Isn't that backwards?"

    1. Re:PLEASE READ!! by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      When you reply to comments point out your mistake with "On the contrary. It is anything but weak. It is a firmly established correlation. Please see the links I posted above. ", you lose the ability to claim it as an oops moment. Not to mention that it also puts you in the camp of "shoots from the hip first, reads sources later".

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    2. Re:PLEASE READ!! by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Nonsense. The correlation is very strong. It is just not a negative correlation, as I stated. THAT was the "oops" part.

  72. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by IamX · · Score: 1

    I think you two are mistaking "conceptual" for "imaginary". The mathematical "real line" is itself a conceptual construct. Humans do not have the cognitive machinery to sense a point/line/circle. Without defining what is meant by real arguing over what is not real ( imaginary ) is meaningless. There are no lines there that one can be seen/sensed/ measured on it's own, instead there is how the iron fillings/plasma align that makes our primate brain see lines. This is just the Machs principle that it is meaningless to talk about the distance from earth to the moon without moon being there. Please someone reply with an example of a "real line", e.g. is the line I draw on the paper a real line? or is it just the difference on reflection from paper that makes my brain to interpret it as "a line"? What you are arguing over is not physics but meaning. If you can gather some magnetic field lines and put them in vase, water them and sell them for a buck then they are more real. There is no "real flower", just instances of the concept of flower, it is your mind that simplifies your view so you can hold onto a "real flower".

  73. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    > there is also a very real path that an electron will follow from a specific starting point in a 3-D electromagnetic field.

    Yes, there is such a path. And that path is most certainly *not* a magnetic field line. An electron in a magnetic field is acted on by a force perpendicular to the field lines. Your error is just as bad (in much the same way) as the error you seek to correct.

    Electrons may follow paths that spiral *around* and along magnetic field lines. It's these paths that give rise to the loops we see in the sun's corona when we look in the frequency band.

  74. Re:Oh sure... by Have+Brain+Will+Rent · · Score: 1

    Ummm, if you won't hear them until you know they have valid criticisms then how do you know whether or not their criticisms are valid?

    --
    The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny - Aesop
  75. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by IamX · · Score: 1

    the magnetic field lines you see are a not a demonstration of a lines in the magnetic field. Magnetic fields are continuous, and do not have discrete lines."

    Wikipedia

    Magnetic fields are continuous in what sense? mathematically continuous or some other sense that has not been stated? We have not seen anything continuous in our physical reality/this universe yet. also who and by what principle/fact/logic/data one can state :"Magnetic fields are continuous, and do not have discrete lines" ? without defining a) what is meant by continuous? b)How that conclusion came to be? and why did he/she stop there? they should have also added "God is Love" it just blends right in.

  76. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Eh, the volume of a degree compared to the volume of the average human body is so small that it can't really affect it, but thanks.

  77. Re:Oh sure... by Locke2005 · · Score: 0, Troll

    Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, so yes, occasionally FOX might report something correctly. Now, if we could just get them to stop automatically calling politicians "Democrats" when they are involved in a sex scandal, regardless of their party affiliation, they might be worth watching...

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  78. No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by BlueParrot · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Since there will of course be a lot of nonsense about this having implications for the reliability of the IPCC's statements on climate change and so on, it is worth posting the following:

    We have direct measurements of incoming and outgoing solar radiation. We have satellites in orbit that detect incoming as well as outgoing radiation of all wavelengths. From these direct measurements we know that the recent change in outgoing radiation is greater than the changes in incoming radiation. We know that the change is in the region of the spectrum where CO2 and other greenhouse gasses absorb radiation the most. We also know from isotopic analysis that a majority of the increase in CO2 concentration is fossil in origin ( fossil fuels are virtually depleted in Carbon 14 since it decays radioactively over periods of several thousand years ), thus excluding the possibility that what we see is a feedback effect from changes in solar activity.

    Thus we more or less know that the sun is not to blame, no matter how poorly we may understand its sunspots, cycles and whatnot. The change in radiation balance is due to neither a direct solar effect nor the type of feedbacks that occur during ice age termination. If either of the two was the case then the isotopic studies would have detected it since the CO2 in oceans and plants have comparable C14 concentrations as the atmosphere. Instead what we see is an increased concentration of fossil carbon in the atmosphere, and together with it a reduction in outgoing infra-red radiation consistent with the absorption spectra of the greenhouse gases we emit.

    1. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      We also know from isotopic analysis that a majority of the increase in CO2 concentration is fossil in origin ( fossil fuels are virtually depleted in Carbon 14 since it decays radioactively over periods of several thousand years ), thus excluding the possibility that what we see is a feedback effect from changes in solar activity.

      I thought we couldn't tell the difference between fossil fuel carbon and volcano carbon?

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    2. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      citation?

    3. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I can. One lets me drive my car, and the other ends with the screaming and the burning and OH MY GOD!!!

    4. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you get paid by the backers of Al Gore et al to post uninformed crap?

    5. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AC to preserve previous moderation.

      Actually it's not C14 (which has way to short a half life to be useful) that tells us the added carbon in the atmosphere is from fossil fuels but it's the C12/C13 ratio. Both C12 & C13 are stable isotopes of carbon but plants and other organic processes prefer C12 because it's lighter so the C12/C13 ratio in fossil fuels is higher than it is in the general atmosphere. The ratio in the atmosphere has been increasing slightly which tells us the additional carbon is from burning fossil fuels.

    6. Re:No implications for the reliability of the IPCC by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      And related satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures directly contradict the CO2 warming model. Either the measurements are incorrect, or the model is. Which contradiction do you choose to believe?

  79. I've seen this movie, it doesn't end well. by RomulusNR · · Score: 1

    10/19/09, the end is nigh!

    --
    Terrorists can attack freedom, but only Congress can destroy it.
  80. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

    Iron fillings don't flow in the field. They don't move. They simply align with the field.

    But they also align with each other. The external field is amplified in the locations where there are iron filings in alignment with the field. Each iron filing is more affected by the magnet field generated by the other iron filings than it is by the external magnetic field, which is what then causes them to move and form into lines.

    At a certain distance from any given iron filing, the force exerted by the positive end of the filing is exactly counterbalanced by the force exerted by the negative end. The same is true of the "line" of iron filings as a whole. This distance is related to the strength of the external magnetic field in which all the iron filings are contained.

    As the field strength drops off, the lines of filings should become closer to each other as the iron filings are less able to influence each other. This is the opposite of the (imaginary) field lines which are normally spaced closer in areas of higher field strength.

    Can you confirm or correct any of this?

    --
    "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  81. Re:Oh sure... by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 1, Funny

    Holy smokes!

    All the dedicated Fox Viewers have mod points today!

    Ha ha! The Slashdot editors have an awesome sense of humor. --Kind of like giving chili peppers and bubble gum to the house pets, except not cruel.

    -FL

  82. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 1

    Exactly. The don't move, the simply align with the field. The direction the face is based on the direction of the field at the position of the filing itself. Think of each filing as a compass needle that points in the direction of the field at any point.

    Unfortunately, iron filings themselves make for a difficult example other than showing the field. You are right, they become magnetized themselves via induction. The actual physics of the situation changes due to the small changes to the field. However, a sufficiently strong magnet will override any field cause by the filings themselves. Also, remember that the filings are each a "bar magnet" if you will and have a north and south pole which of course point toward each other (via attraction) which tends to cancel out many of the first order effects of the filings.

    Your assumption of the filings moving and forming into lines however is incorrect. If you look closely, the filings don't all lie on a line, but simply close together. You're assumption of the effects that the filings have on each other is good though and this tends to cause the "gaps" you often see in pictures of magnets and filings (such as here.

    You are also very correct in what you see is actually the OPPOSITE of what the "lines" themselves are doing. As the strength of the field increases, the "lines" get closer together while far from the magnet the lines are further apart. This is evident in the picture in the link above.

    Also, you could set up an experiment where you had say some number of filings spread out nearly uniformly (as much as possible). When the magnet was applied, the filings would "spin" and align with the field (magnetic and the induced field). If you took a picture and did the experiment again, you would see a completely different "view" of the filings.

    Good call... I'd give you an 'A' :)

  83. Re:Oh sure... by Runaway1956 · · Score: 0, Troll

    When they do, will you post it on slashdot where I'm likely to see it? Hopefully before I die of old age.....

    --
    "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
  84. Re:Oh sure... by Runaway1956 · · Score: 1

    Well, Fantastic Chump, allow me to explain a simple little thing for you. Among the media, there ARE NO 'good' guys. The best of them are whoring themselves out, and/or have a secret agenda.

    I happen to like the Wikileaks site. They may be the best example today of impartial reporting. But, even those people are attention whores with an agenda.

    It doesn't matter that I happen to agree with this reporter, or that reporter - or even that I agree with this media outlet, or that. They are all whores, trying to sway your opinion into line with THEIR views.

    Fuck 'em all. And, while we're at it, fuck all the chumps who swallow all the bullshit thrown at them.

    --
    "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
  85. Huh? What's good about the article? by gd23ka · · Score: 1

    Who said it was a good article? Hannah Montana? It mentions global warming as fact when the off-screen debate whether global warming is caused by human activity has turned into the debate whether it is happening at all. I don't see any redeeming value here.

  86. Sunspots... by helbent · · Score: 1

    ...cast a glare in my eye...

  87. Re:Oh sure... by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 1

    Well, Fantastic Chump, allow me to explain a simple little thing for you. Among the media, there ARE NO 'good' guys.

    Actually, that was one of my points. Sadly, we're on the same page.

    With friends like these. . .

    -FL

  88. Everyone here is stupid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Everyone here is stupid. Of course it's because greenhouse gases. It is known by everyone that we are warming up the planet with greenhouse gases and now we are warming up the sun. Stop driving your SUVs and maybe we'll live a few more years.

    If we keep churning out greenhouse gases at the rate that we are going now for a few more years we'll start warming up the Milky Way and then we'll get another big bang and have other life forms to compete with who will probably eat us for fun.

  89. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Very strange, as magnetic field lines are entirely imaginary.

    Yes, there is this wonderful historical book - I think the title was the 'Bible' or something - that had the teachings of a great REAL scholar, and he never mentioned these imaginary fields..

  90. Re:Oh sure... by east+coast · · Score: 1

    Saying anyone who questions a theory should be heard might sound nice in theory, but in reality it means you have a bunch of people throwing out unsubstantiated garbage in order to muddy the waters and further their own agendas

    Yeah, that's the same excuse they used to dismiss Galileo.

    Who is to determine what is valid? You? The author of a theory? There is no high council of science to filter out the scientifically sound from the crap.

    I'm not saying you have to take the time out to disprove every man, woman and child who comes to a research center claiming that God is the cause of XYZ and not biology, chemistry and physics. A simple one time answer works in that case.

    If anything muddies the waters it's "scientists" passing off bad research in order to generate grant money. The agenda that is really bringing down research isn't a religious one, it's from within the community itself. And it's also the kinds of "research" that makes the public both confused and skeptical of sound scientific research. From where I sit I'm skeptical of any researcher who can't answer to data that can offset their theory.

    --
    Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
  91. Re:Oh sure... by stilldead · · Score: 1

    I shook the magic 8 ball 42 times and 27 times it said signs point to no. You can't argue with data like that.

    I'll bet the sun doesn't have a magic 8 ball. Unless ... maybe that's the spot.

    --
    You are lucky, Ed Gruberman. Few novices experience so much of Ti Kwan Leep so soon.
  92. Anonymous Coward by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "We're emerging from the longest, deepest sunspot drought since 1913"

    I for one blame global warming and by extension, George W. Bush.

  93. Right, and we have something to do with by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    global warming. bull fucking shit.

  94. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by bronney · · Score: 1

    no bro, it just mean you have a dirty cone! Now go wash it and try again you filthy scientists!

  95. Re:Oh sure... by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

    "Anyone who questions the validity of a theory should be heard"

    Rubbish, if you don't question the validity of the question then we end up teaching creation science and every other crackpot theory in schools because some institute with absolutely no scientific standing has questioned evolutionary theory, heliocentric theory, germ theory, or some other theory that they don't like. When this happens it is no longer science, it's mearly uninformed opinion.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  96. Re:Oh sure... by migloo · · Score: 1

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard.

    If you decide the criticism is not valid without hearing it first, it means you are prejudiced. Am I missing something?

  97. So does this mean that ... by Skapare · · Score: 1

    ... the economy is finally turning around?

    --
    now we need to go OSS in diesel cars
  98. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    What? Are we thinking of the same magnetic field lines? They're the ones you normally see drawn spanning from the N to the S pole on a magnet in diagrams.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  99. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    Magnets have "north" and "south" poles, so it's still more or less analogous.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  100. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    True. The electrons will move as described by the right-hand rule. I'd forgotten this.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  101. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    You can continue to do this ad infinitum (assuming smaller and smaller pieces of string) but they will never match the piece of paper, i.e. the continuous field. They can approximate it but it will never be the same.

    But isn't that basically what you're doing when you calculate a triple integral?

    You're approximating first a 1-D path, then 2-D surface, then 3-D space by successively integrating a differential, which is essentially a point (0-D). Infinitely many points are used to define the line, infinitely many lines define the surface, and infinitely many surfaces are layered into the space.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  102. Re:Oh sure... by Danathar · · Score: 1

    And Not defending FOX but just about everything from every other news agency is complete bullshit as well

  103. New scientific discovery by jrumney · · Score: 1

    "This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years."

    Congratulations, scientists now have the evidence to show that the result of combining Sun, Telescope and Remaining Eye is a two year recovery period.

  104. Re:Oh sure... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And of course a -political- organization like the IPCC is totally free of political concerns.

    If you believe that : I have a bridge to sell you, interested ? Perhaps some prime (post-warming) seaside property ?

  105. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by blueg3 · · Score: 1

    Remember, the contour lines aren't real; they're an imaginary construct used to illustrate height. The lake is real, and since its boundary is determined by height (more or less), the real object's border matches a single contour line. That doesn't make the contour line real.

    Continental divide.

    No engineer I've talked to considers the continental divide to be part of fluid flow or fluid mechanics. I'll ask some geologists, and then quiz them about fluid flow lines.

  106. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by clone53421 · · Score: 1

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_divide

    A continental divide is a drainage divide on a continent such that the drainage basin on one side of the divide feeds into one ocean or sea, and the basin on the other side either feeds into a different ocean or sea, or else is endorheic, not connected to the open sea.

    Drainage is basically just a form of applied fluid flow.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
  107. GW research dollars women's shoe market! by burtosis · · Score: 1
    I am not a GW denier, but what really chaps my hide is the lack of understanding of the problem and the certanity of people to act now but without a realistic understanding of the consequences of action.

    The cost of global warming, in my estimate, is past the quintillion dollar mark because it will adversely affect the entire economy of the planet for hundreds - to thousands (perhaps) of years to come. The cost of just acting without knowing what is real and what is just wish thinking on the part of ignorant people who want to enforce thier will on all under the guise of altruism can be staggering without any real benefit. Not knowing quite enough science got us into this mess, and it should be sound science that gets us out. The whole albedo posts above just illustrates how important it is to *really* understand the problem so an efficient means of reducing the problem can be found.

    That being said, Obama's plan for global warming research dollars is 400 million in 2009 http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjcyODIyZGM2MGU1ZDdkNDgxZDc3OTNjYjM4ZDY1ODI= whereas the womens shoe market in 1996 is 37 billion dollars: http://www.packagedfacts.com/sitemap/product.asp?productid=130270 As far as I have been able to tell, we have spent less money than the womens shoe market in one year on the all time effort of solving a human life ending enviornment problem - does that make sense to anyone???

    I think anyone who objectively steps back, realizing that the data so far suggests we need to act now, will realize we need to have that understanding now. I can only conclude that the bulk of the world either dosen't believe its true, dosent care (afterall you will be most likely be dead before it ruins the planet), or are just insane.

  108. GIGO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because your last 50s year's of data is crap.

    GIGO.

  109. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by NotNormallyNormal · · Score: 2, Informative

    No. Think of each integral as "stretching" to the next dimension. The path become a surface, etc.

    I think there is a bit of difference in thinking here. Most people are thinking of a line as a discrete thing that iron filings or plasma or whatever exist on, making the "lines" real. That was what I was trying to show with my example. You have the correct thought that the "line" is just a mathematical construct - your integration shows this.

  110. yeah this happens every few by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    washes. ive found if you just cut back on the amount detergent you use it helps.

    what do you mean..."read the article"??

  111. Re:"The magnetic field lines are clearly visible. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well my density is closer to that of beer. And no, I don't have a degree in physics.

  112. Re:Oh sure... by metaforest · · Score: 1

    Anyone who offers valid criticisms of your theory with data to back them up should be heard. Saying anyone who questions a theory should be heard might sound nice in theory, but in reality it means you have a bunch of people throwing out unsubstantiated garbage in order to muddy the waters and further their own agendas, which are rarely motivated by scientific concerns.

    In a non-commercial situations this usually seems to work as designed. If the valid criticisms reflect poorly on a very profitable product backed by a powerful chemical company, It's very doubtful that any news org can stand up to the pressure. This is true no matter how independent that news org claims to be. The fiasco with rBST and the history surrounding attempts by FOX and other media outlets to publish reports critical of rBST is an important example of how ineffective the "Free" media in the US is when large advertisers have them by the short hairs.

  113. Re:Oh sure... by Random+BedHead+Ed · · Score: 1

    Sun? Didn't they go out of business or something?

    No, I'm pretty sure they're still around. They're the ones with the topless chick on the third page, right?

    They were until they were bought by Oracle, and now the topless chicks work directly for Larry Ellison. Page 3 is now ad space - you can buy it, in fact, however the cost is rather prohibitive and depends on the number of processors on your graphic designer's workstation.

  114. Solanki '04 disagrees with you by slashbart · · Score: 1
    Looking at Solanki 2004 you will see clearly that even scientists that believe in AGW show conclusively that the sun was unusually active in the later half of the last century:

    According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago.We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode. Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.

    Even the anti skeptics site skeptical science refers to him, so no Solanki is not a climate heretic.

  115. Mod Parent Up by mkarcher · · Score: 1

    I wish I had mod points because the parent post succinctly disarms the above many-threaded debate.

    --

    These opinions are my own and not necessarily
    the opinions of God or any other supreme being.
  116. To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    No, I was suggesting that ONE particular person was being a lazy ass, and trying to put demands on me as a result. As I have mentioned, one of his questions could have easily been answered had he bothered to spend literally 10 seconds on Google.

    Further, I had in fact answered one of Geoffrey's posts, and I have just answered another one, at length, with a reply that indirectly references about 150 or more peer-reviewed scientific papers. That will have to be good enough, because I am tired of catering to lazy asses who believe what they are told on the 11 o'clock news, and who can't be bothered to do any real research or even lookups on their own.

    1. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Or maybe scientists aren't the brainwashed idiots you clearly think we are? We're aware that the sun exists, and that it impacts the climate. But the overwhelming evidence is that sunspots have a negligible impact on climate.

      People are asking you for serious, peer-reviewed references not because scientists are idiots who "believe what they are told on the 11 o'clock news, and who can't be bothered to do any real research or even lookups on their own" but because we've spent our lives studying these issues and what you're saying contradicts all the evidence we've seen.

    2. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Further, I had in fact answered one of Geoffrey's posts, and I have just answered another one, at length, with a reply that indirectly references about 150 or more peer-reviewed scientific papers.

      Here's proof that the Moon doesn't cause the tides, that the Earth is less than 10,000 years old, and that the Earth doesn't move. The website has more than 150 peer-reviewed references, I'm sure!

      Not convinced? Why not? Do you see any difference between the post wrote in response to Geoffrey Landis and the fixedearth.com website? Because I don't. That's why we're asking you to provide us with a direct link to an actual peer-reviewed article supporting your claim that sunspots are responsible for global warming. It's all too common for pseudoscientists to quote legitimate articles to support their outlandish claims, and then ignore the scientists' complaints.

    3. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Apparently you think *I* am an idiot. Try reading the goddamned thread. I have already answered a post about the very article on luminosity you mention. So, ONE MORE TIME: it is the length of the sunspot cycles, not the "increase in luminosity", that correlates with Earth surface temperature. A paper concluding that there is not enough luminosity to create the warming is completely irrelevant to the issue. If you really don't want to be perceived as a "brainwashed idiot", maybe you could bother to figure out what the argument is about before you put in your irrelevant 2 cents.



      As for the rest, you are one of those lazy asses I mentioned. First, the Petition Project is a legitimate collection of scientists. Their names are published right there for you to see. But you are too damned lazy to look any of them up? You can't bother with a few seconds on Google to confirm that they are legitimate? Then what you are saying is that no amount of evidence will satisfy you. And yes, that to me means "brainwashed idiot". And by the way, if you really are a scientist you should know the difference between evidence and proof.

      I could just as easily argue that the "scientists" you claim support the CO2 warming model are shysters, as are the people who published the papers they reference. You really can't have that both ways, man. You asked for references, and I gave them to you. But then you say that's not good enough, you don't believe. Well, as I have stated numerous times before, the only way to find out is to get off your lazy ass and LOOK IT UP YOURSELF!!! I gave you all the information you asked for, but you can't bother to sort through it or look any of it up. Okay. Well, in my view, an unwillingness to look at evidence or try to verify its legitimacy disqualifies you for the title of "scientist".

      If you had bothered to look up the guy in the first video I posted, you could have found some papers, in that same 10 seconds I mentioned to that other person. But no. So, since you insist on being spoon-fed, here is one: Solar Cycles and Predicted Climate Response (pdf), which appeared in Energy & Environment (an appropriately peer-reviwed journal) in 2006. You asked for one, you got it. There are many more, very easily found, but I am not going to do your homework for you. Now go away. You disgust me.

    4. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I should also like to point out that the "Summary of Peer-Reviewed Research" I pointed everybody to earlier is also an appropriately peer-reviewed paper. And while it does not bring up the sunspot issue directly, it does refute much of the greenhouse warming alarmism.

    5. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Apparently you think *I* am an idiot. Try reading the goddamned thread. ... If you really don't want to be perceived as a "brainwashed idiot", maybe you could bother to figure out what the argument is about before you put in your irrelevant 2 cents. ... As for the rest, you are one of those lazy asses I mentioned. ... But you are too damned lazy to look any of them up? ... And yes, that to me means "brainwashed idiot". ... get off your lazy ass and LOOK IT UP YOURSELF!!! ... since you insist on being spoon-fed ... There are many more, very easily found, but I am not going to do your homework for you. Now go away. You disgust me.

      There's really no need to be so uncivilized. I'm just saying that all your posts on this subject clearly imply that scientists are either so stupid that they overlook trivially obvious "problems" with their own research, or are willing members in a global conspiracy. Based on your (mistaken) assumption that I haven't read this thread, I don't have to guess which of these alternatives you've chosen in my case. Pity. I bet conspirators get jetpacks!

      And I most certainly do not think you're an idiot. At worst, I think you're making mistakes while talking about a highly advanced subject that lies far outside of your own professional experience. Everyone does that. It'd be a different story if I was saying that you were pathetically wrong about your own life's work... the subject that you've studied since childhood with the passionate intensity of a monk. I'd never insult you like that; at most I'd simply ask polite questions to try to understand your subject of expertise better.

      First, the Petition Project is a legitimate collection of scientists.

      I asked for peer-reviewed references, not a list of people with PhDs. There's a difference. A list of PhDs is an argument from authority. A peer-reviewed article is evidence of a very specific claim, along with equations and links to data that I could use to verify that claim. It's the product of the scientific process, which is given weight by the confrontational nature of the review process in addition to the fact that everyone involved has a PhD in that specific field. Like other people who take your position, you appear to think that science is democratic-- that scientific decisions are made by comparing the number of people on each side. It's not. It's about evidence.

      Energy & Environment (an appropriately peer-reviwed journal) in 2006. You asked for one, you got it.

      My apologies. I wasn't nearly specific enough in my original request. Scientific journals are rather specialized, and we're discussing a very specialized hard science topic. It wouldn't be appropriate to reference an article from a social science journal (which is what "Energy and Environment" is). The reason is that the referees need to be experts in their field in order to properly vet the paper. Journals I'd suggest reading are Science, Nature, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Physical Review, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, etc.

      I'm sorry for not making that caveat more explicit, but I figured it was an assumption that all scientists would make...

      But I'll make it up to you. Here's an article by Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen, published in Science in 1991. This would have been a legitimate example of a peer-reviewed journal article supporting your claim.

      Of course, it's incorrect. You can find out how-- if you're interested-- by following its citations

    6. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry; I really don't know which of the dozens of links you're talking about. If you want to make a strong scientific case, pick one article that you think presents the strongest evidence. Bonus points if it hasn't been disproven by later research (found through "cited by" in google scholar), and is in one of these journals: Science, Nature, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Physical Review, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.

    7. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "Civilized" is a point of view. You have called into question things that I have already answered, yet have not provided any basis for doing so. From my point of view, that is pretty damned uncivilized.

      "Based on your (mistaken) assumption that I haven't read this thread, I don't have to guess which of these alternatives you've chosen in my case."

      Ah, but you see, it was not an assumption. It was based on evidence! If you had read the thread, you would have known that I had already answered a post about the paper to which you referred. And even since, you still have not tried to refute that answer.

      "I asked for peer-reviewed references..."

      And I gave you plenty of information from which you could have found peer-reviewed papers, if you had only bothered to look, even a little bit. My statement stands.

      "Like other people who take your position, you appear to think that science is democratic..."

      THAT is complete bullshit. That is the exactly the point that I made in a preceding post... and you claim to have read this thread??? Go back and read it again. You are in error.

      "Journals I'd suggest reading are Science, Nature, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Physical Review..."

      Aha. Exactly those journals that have been experiencing famous failures of the peer-review system in recent years? Of course. Sir, that was only one paper out of a great many. I repeat: why do you want me to do your homework for you? You refuse to look these things up for yourself... in fact, you even failed to check the sources that I already gave you. Stop demanding that someone else do your work and make your mind up for you.

      Then, you cite an article from clear back in 1991 -- before many of these climate "effects" are supposed to even have been observed -- and claim that it is wrong. And perhaps that particular article WAS wrong. But I have cited -- and pointed you to -- much more recent research that contradicts that. And the periods in question are not even remotely the same. If you can refute THAT, then please do. I am quite willing to believe that I am wrong -- as others on this site can attest -- when I am actually shown to be wrong. You should understand this principle, being a scientist and all. But until you do, I am not swayed. And in fact I feel rather insulted, to have someone such as you assume that I have not done a bit of my own research into the available data in this area, when you so obviously have not.

      NOTE: I am going to break this off now, but leave the existing part of this reply in place, because there have been problems with Slashdot today, and in going back to refer to my prior posts, I see that some them are not showing up now. I cannot rightly fault you for not reading what is not there, even though they were there earlier and my own account shows them clearly. So, for now I will just table this discussion until I see whether Slashdot fixes this problem. Consider my comments to be retracted, tentatively, until such time as my prior posts are back in place.

    8. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      If you have an email address, I can copy you the posts that I previously made, because they show up in my own Slashdot comment listing. Apologies if I accused you of ignoring things that you could not have seen; I had no idea that Slashdot was doing this.

    9. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      If you go to the "about me" page (found at the top right) on my homepage (listed next to my name here at slashdot) then I've got an email address listed.

      But, frankly, I'd rather you didn't. I'm not sure I want my email account filled with dozens upon dozens of pseudoscientific websites accusing me of participating in a Global Evil Conspiracy, punctuated only by cursing and accusations of being lazy. (Incidentally, that has much more to do with my definition of "uncivilized" than asking a polite question.) I don't have a blood pressure problem yet, and I'd rather keep it that way...

      I'm not quite sure which of the claims you've made in that last response haven't been retracted, so I won't discuss any of them at length. However, I can't help but point out that you've casually dismissed every top-tier hard-science journal, in favor of a social science journal. With all due respect, Science, Nature and all the other journals I mentioned are where science actually happens. The claim that sunspot cycle length correlates well with Earth's average temperature was made in the mainstream journals in 1991. But it was quickly shown to be a spurious connection based on data smoothing parameters. The fact that "Energy and Environment" didn't catch this when the argument was made again 15 years later just shows that they're not experts in the field. As I've said, there's no shame in that. I'm not an expert in all subjects in the universe, so I don't fault their lack of highly specialized knowledge in this particular subject any more than my lack of knowledge about synchronized swimming is a black mark on my career as a climate scientist. I'm sure their journal is excellent at analyzing the social science issues associated with energy use, and those issues are important too.

      And perhaps that particular article WAS wrong. But I have cited -- and pointed you to -- much more recent research that contradicts that.

      More recent != more credible. If they were both articles in Science, yes, all other things being equal, the more recent article would have more weight (unless it was so new that other scientists hadn't yet had time to respond to it.) In fact, that article you're leaning on quotes Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen (1991) several times, without seeming to understand that the reason their conclusions are no longer valid has nothing to do with the data they used, and everything to do with the way they smoothed the data. My other post quotes legitimate, peer-reviewed articles that show this warming is due mainly to anthropogenic CO2.

    10. Re:To Anonymous Coward: by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "However, I can't help but point out that you've casually dismissed every top-tier hard-science journal, in favor of a social science journal."

      No, I did not. You asked for ONE "peer-reviewed" paper, and I pointed you at the first one I happened to run across. You did not specify that you wanted particular parties to peer-review it. In any case, there are many more, really, if you bother to look. But I suspect you won't.

      And I would like to point out that you are apparently ignoring the failures of peer review that have been experienced by Science and Nature in recent years.

      "that article you're leaning on quotes Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen (1991) several times, without seeming to understand that the reason their conclusions are no longer valid..."

      Once again, I am not and was not "leaning on" that article. I only found that one about 10 minutes into our discussion. I did not even read it thoroughly... I just cited it as an example of what you asked me for.

  117. Not anonymous any more. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Like other people who take your position, you appear to think that science is democratic...

    THAT is complete bullshit. That is the exactly the point that I made in a preceding post... and you claim to have read this thread??? Go back and read it again. You are in error.

    When asked for a peer-reviewed article, you presented a list of scientists. It doesn't really matter what you've written in any other post-- that kind of category error gives the appearance that you think science is democratic because that's the only scenario in which this wouldn't be a category error.

    Most of your other complaints follow the same pattern. It's not that I haven't read your other posts, so there's no need to wait for Slashdot to get fixed. In fact, I've been reading your posts on this subject for many months now. Your recent post did include a peer-reviewed article, which is progress of sorts and I applaud you for it. (Although the objections in my previous comments still stand.) But as far as I can tell, none of your previous comments contained even a single direct link to a peer-reviewed article. It's hard to be certain when you spam dozens of links into a single post, so I may very well have missed a direct link to a legitimate journal. If that's the case, I apologize and humbly ask-- again-- that you copy the link here so I can see whatever evidence you've seen that makes you so... excitable.

    Note that peer review is a necessary but not sufficient condition for establishing a valid scientific claim. Not all peer-reviewed papers are accurate, as I've shown. But if you want respect from scientists, you have to first rise above this reliance on pseudo-scientific websites that display approximately the same level of rigor and oversight as this site.

    1. Re:Not anonymous any more. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "When asked for a peer-reviewed article, you presented a list of scientists. It doesn't really matter what you've written in any other post-- that kind of category error gives the appearance that you think science is democratic because that's the only scenario in which this wouldn't be a category error."

      This is simply incorrect. Mr. Landis suggested (as you did) that there was not enough luminosity difference to account for the temperature difference. I was pointing out to him that the correlation was purported to be with period length, not luminosity, and further that there were problems with the IPCC reports that nearly everyone relies upon to support their greenhouse warming theories. At that point, nobody had asked me for any peer-reviewed papers. Nor, for that matter, had anyone (in any part of this thread that I had participated in to that time), cited any of their own peer reviewed studies that were relevant and had not been discredited.

      "It's not that I haven't read your other posts..."

      Ah, but you see it WAS exactly as though you had not read my other posts. At the time, you were asking me for things I had already posted... like the fact that the correlation was supposed to have little if anything to do with luminosity. (You had linked to that paper on luminosity. That was your error, not mine.) When I went back to cite those previous posts for you, Slashdot was not displaying them, so I could not. So I gave you the benefit of the doubt.

      "Note that peer review is a necessary but not sufficient condition for establishing a valid scientific claim."

      Does the phrase "No shit, Sherlock?" sound familiar? Do you hear it often? You really must think I am an idiot. Well, you are entitled to your opinion.

      "But if you want respect from scientists, you have to first rise above this reliance on pseudo-scientific websites that display approximately the same level of rigor and oversight as this site."

      Well, with effort I will refrain from repeating what I just wrote above, but the fact is that I cited no such website. Your straw-man arguments may impress you, but have little relevance to what actually occurred here. Once again: at the time I posted those links, NOBODY had asked me for a peer-reviewed paper showing that sunspots correlated to temperature. On the contrary; the links I posted were (as I stated quite clearly) intended to show that the IPCC reports were generally unreliable and politicized. So if you are going to insult me, can't you at least insult me for something I actually did, rather than making insinuations about something I did not do? At the risk of being as insultingly patronizing as yourself, I would like to point out that ad hominem attacks do not prove your point.

    2. Re:Not anonymous any more. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have one further comment to make here:

      As I stated before, I only found that paper after you asked me to find one, and I was not particularly careful in choosing it; you had asked for a peer-reviewed paper, and I just grabbed the first one that was visible. And indeed, some of its claims do appear to be refuted, particularly in a paper by P. Damon, published in Eos in 2004. However, though you apparently knew this (as, I could guess, did Mr. Landis), neither of you bothered to cite any kind of actual data in an attempt to refute the one paper I provided, per your request.

      After you mentioned the data smoothing issue, it took me about 2 minutes to find Damon's paper. If I had been aware of it in advance, I would of course not have offered that paper. But if you really wanted to make a point -- and practice what you preach -- you should have cited your sources. Instead, you left me to look it up... which makes you are guilty of exactly the same faux pas of which you accuse me. In point of fact, Damon's paper itself states, "The graphs [from Friis-Christensen and Lassen] are still widely referred to in the literature,and their misleading character has not yet been generally recognized." Without citing sources, then, how did you expect me to know?

      So, as it stands, I believe that the form of your response has been rather hypocritical.

      Further, while it was implied by Mr. Landis, neither of you bothered to acknowledge that there is in fact a strong correlation, at least up to the mid-20th century. Instead, you gave me the impression that you were disputing any correlation at all, which I knew to be incorrect.

    3. Re:Not anonymous any more. by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the link. You're right, it is a good paper. I'm sorry that I missed it.

  118. Not anonymous any more by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Hmm.. okay. Well, anyway, it's been... interesting. Just FYI, I'll be linking to your comments and quoting them when I finally get around to writing a blog article about my experiences debating climate change with the general public. It's usually helpful to see opposing points of view, and so far your posts are among the most educated and polite of those taking your position.

    1. Re:Not anonymous any more by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Well, just so you are aware of where my "excitability" came from:

      I seldom encounter people here on Slashdot who are both willing and able to carry out a reasonable and sensible discussion on the issues. The vast majority of the time I get people who take a set position and will not vary from it, no matter what the evidence or argument. So shoot me for assuming (as I did assume), that you and Mr. Landis were engaging in that kind of "discussion", and were using (or about to) discredited or exaggerated IPCC or news statements to support your side.

      As I have stated here before, I am willing to believe I am wrong... if I am actually demonstrated to be wrong. Most people who think so simply say so, without producing any evidence to demonstrate it... as I believe I have already stated you and Mr. Landis both did at first. In this case, I am willing -- tentatively, until I look some things up -- to believe I was wrong. However this process could have been accelerated, had somebody cited some refuting sources earlier.

      I am quite willing -- and happy -- to engage in meaningful and reasonable discussions, when such an opportunity actually presents itself... which has been all too seldom.