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Noctilucent Clouds Likely Caused By Shuttle Launches

icebike writes "In our recent discussion of the phenomenon of noctilucent clouds, there was some suggestions that these might be the product of global warming due to moisture being lofted high into the atmosphere. It now appears that these clouds are simply the product of Shuttle launches. In a story about the Tunguska blast, Science News says: 'Each launch of a space shuttle, which burns a combination of liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen as fuel, pumps about 300 metric tons of water vapor into the atmosphere at altitudes between 100 and 115 kilometers. Soon after the January 16, 2003, launch of the shuttle Columbia, a liftoff that took place just after the height of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, noctilucent clouds appeared over Antarctica. Similarly, a widespread display of the night-shining clouds showed up over Alaska two days after the shuttle Endeavour blasted off on August 8, 2007. Previous studies show that in both instances those clouds included material from the shuttle plumes.' So, man-made after all?"

132 comments

  1. See? Man-made climate change! by mveloso · · Score: 4, Funny

    Those damn environmentalists were right!

    1. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by boliboboli · · Score: 2, Insightful

      sarcasm> Anything in the sky that isn't normal (what is normal exactly?) is caused by global warming, duh! /sarcasm

    2. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by LKM · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Normal: Things we have observed for a long time. Not normal: Things we have observed only recently.

      Since global warming is the main change currently happening to our climate, attributing other changes to global warming is often an acceptable first hypothesis, at least if there's a known mechanism that could potentially link the two.

    3. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by Anonymos+Noel+Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Correlation is not causation!

      Someone had to say it. I wish CmdrTaco would write a bot which automatically inserts the "Correlation is not causation" thing into every discussion, along with an automatically selected XKCD cartoon.

    4. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      Since global warming is the main change currently happening to our climate, attributing other changes to global warming is often an acceptable first hypothesis, at least if there's a known mechanism that could potentially link the two.

      Well the "known mechanism" is probably a good thing to have before you move from hunch to public announcement.

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    5. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      AFAIK - The best explaination has always been rockets, photos and comentry of the clouds have been posted on APOD several times. The previous /. article is the first time I recall hearing it linked to AGW by an atmospheric scientist.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    6. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      I guess we can all relax now knowing that we are only seeing the signs of shuttle damage to the extreme edge of the atmosphere.

        I have been concerned for a while now about the possibility of disturbing what must for the most part be a very stable part of the atmosphere. Does anyone know how many pollutants ie N/SOx these launches distribute or if the chemistry of that region is likely to be affected?

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    7. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by shadow349 · · Score: 0, Troll

      AFAIK - The best explaination has always been rockets,

      A theory completely supported by their first recorded observation being in 1885.

    8. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by BubbaDave · · Score: 1

      Damage? Who knows, just because it's causing clouds, that doesn't by itself infer damage.

      Now, on to pollutants... the solid fuel boosters pump out a few-hundred tons of fairly nasty stuff each launch- a lot of it being greenhouse gases.

      Dave

    9. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by intheshelter · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually they weren't right because they said it was due to global warming. But what I don't get is that they are "scientists". They use the "scientific method". All their conclusions are "peer reviewed". They are smarter than all non-scientists. How could they be wrong? And if they were wrong about this is it possible that they could be wrong about other statements of "fact"? I thought scientists couldn't be wrong? That is was impossible for a non-scientist to question their conclusions?

      Could it be possible (stay with me on this one) that they are full of shit and should be taken with more than just a grain of salt?

    10. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That reply seems to be an emerging binary slashdot meme. It's totally reflexive, no hint of any non-binary thought process.

      A Hint: It's the increasing incidence of the clouds that is being "explained" by increased water vapour from rockets. Rockets obviously don't explain 19th century occurences of the phenomena recorded just a few years after Krakatoa (1883).

      A Clue: You will get a better response if you attempt to debunk something that is actually being claimed. It's a bit disconcerting when you attack the nonsensical thoughts you project into other people's heads.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    11. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by NReitzel · · Score: 2, Funny

      And now, they're putting toxic chemtrails in space!

      --

      Don't take life too seriously; it isn't permanent.

    12. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by Gilmoure · · Score: 2, Funny

      At least they're not throwing around a lot of radioactive stuff in space. Would turn it in to some kind of inhospitable void.

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    13. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by Marble1972 · · Score: 1

      AFAIK - The best explaination has always been rockets,

      A theory completely supported by their first recorded observation being in 1885.

      Jeepers! How does the parent get modded troll!? He's responding to the GP's claim (& the slashdot summary) that the best explanation is rockets. Let's go ahead and suppress the 'inconvenient' facts shall we? & BTW - check out the photo in wikipedia. Given the height of said clouds - they're huge! I have trouble believing that's all rocket plume up there...

    14. Re:See? Man-made climate change! by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Given the height of said clouds - they're huge!

      Granted. Well, pretty big.

      I have trouble believing that's all rocket plume up there...

      There used to be a perception that SlashDot had a scientifically and/or technically literate readership - I'll bet that's what they tell the advertisers anyway. So don't believe, work the numbers.
      Given - a shuttle is worth 300 tonnes of water ; altitude is 115km ; a cirrus cloud is 0.002 g/m^3 water (from http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap08/moist_cloud.html ) ; pressure at that altitude is about 2 Pa (estimate from the 71km figure in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure#Altitude_atmospheric_pressure_variation , which broadly agrees with http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/air-altitude-pressure-d_462.html).
      So, (actually, do I need to look at the atmospheric pressure? Not for a first approximation.) 300 tonnes of water would make a cloud of 300x1000x1000 (tonnes -> g) / 0.002 (g/m^3 -> m^3) = 150000000000 m^3 which equates (broadly) to a 3300 m radius sphere. A sphere of 3.3km radius at 115km range would subtend an angle of 0.028 radians or 1.6 degrees.
      That's about the size of a thumb at arms length, or very easily visible. Including atmospheric pressure in the estimate would (I think) increase the apparent size of the cloud, as would the fact that the cloud is irregular and sheeted.

      Sheesh - don't schools teach kids how to do a back-of-a-fag-packet calculation any more?

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  2. Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttle by zooblethorpe · · Score: 5, Informative

    The previous Slashdot thread included the tidbit that the first noctilucent clouds mentioned in recorded history were in 1887 (also noted here). So unless someone was using hydrogen-oxygen rocketry almost a full century before the first shuttle launch, it would seem that they are not purely anthropogenic.

    Cheers,

    --
    "What in the name of Fats Waller is that?"
    "A four-foot prune."
  3. It's a message... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The aliens are showing us somthing interesting and beautiful as a message, telling us to get ourselves to the stars.

  4. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by iamapizza · · Score: 1

    Mod parent up. It appears that even TFAuthors don't read TFArticles. (Neither have I)

    --
    Always proofread carefully to see if you any words out.
  5. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Taikutusu · · Score: 2, Funny

    Well, there goes my crack headline of "Latest Global Warming Cause : Shuttle Farts".

  6. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by maxwell+demon · · Score: 5, Funny

    Almost a full century before the first shuttle launch by humans! Finally we have proof for UFOs! :-)

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  7. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by LaskoVortex · · Score: 5, Insightful

    first noctilucent clouds mentioned in recorded history were in 1887

    1887 was when the term was coined. It is impossible to say whether the phenomenon called "noctilucent clouds" in 1887 is the same phenomenon we see today. For example, Northern lights might qualify as "noctilucent" and may look cloudy to boot. It's important to distinguish the phenomenon from the terminology.

    --
    Just callin' it like I see it.
  8. Please go read the article. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    While I suppose the summary could be read that way, the actual article is a little more clear on the distinction. That some other events also cause noctilucent clouds, while true, does not invalidate the premise of the shuttle also causing them.

    So mod parent down. Bitch about inaccuracies in the summary if you want, but don't pretend they serve as meaningful parts of the discussion.

  9. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Its also quite possible that the recent appearances of these clouds was caused by the shuttle launches dumping lots of water into the upper atmosphere, regardless of what has caused them in the past

  10. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Vectronic · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Such as from a volcano, which can reach into the stratosphere, not as high as the shuttle, but probably far enough. Or perhaps from the other direction, a (or many) comet burning up in the atmosphere.

  11. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by davester666 · · Score: 1

    Ahah! So, "From the Earth to the Moon" was a documentary, and not fictional (so, it's the opposite of the moon landing shots).

    --
    Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
  12. Finally! by supersat · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Finally, solid evidence that the government controls the weather.

    1. Re:Finally! by camperdave · · Score: 1

      Finally, solid evidence that the government controls the weather.

      Well, duh!

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  13. Dang.... by Jager+Dave · · Score: 1

    JUST when I thought all my conspiracy-theorist friends would have something new to pursue in their spare time...

  14. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They we're also photographed back then by some German person. So that shuttle theory can be one explanation to phenomenon but not certainly the only one.

  15. Why now? by KlaymenDK · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Disregarding the 1887 thing, which is amply discussed above, what amazes me is this:

    If these luminous clouds are caused by shuttle launches, why has it taken, 32 years and 128 launches for someone to discover this relation?
    Or, has something else happened to the atmosphere not-so-long ago which, together with the launches, have been causing these clouds only recently?

    1. Re:Why now? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Every time I read your comment I could only hear in Dr. Strangelove's voice.

    2. Re:Why now? by Kjella · · Score: 3, Insightful

      An obscure topic of meteorology, that appears to occur naturally from time to time, being correlated with space shuttle launches? And probably with a significant delay between release and formation of the clouds, one would think. I think you vastly overestimate the degree of weather observation that actually gets done, and our understanding of the weather system. Yes, there's much ground-based data of temperatures, precipitation and cloud cover but very little on the actual conditions up there - the lone weather balloons they used to send up don't amount to much. It's really only in the last few decades of satellites we've been studying it in detail.

      In any case, I'm sure this will be used as another "disproof" of global warming. Like with Darwin when he gets 95% right and 5% wrong people always want to pretend that theories are either perfect or completely wrong, even though that makes no sense. Or assume some irrational assumption of uniform effects, so the results can violate them. Mess with say the Gulf stream and everything from Mexico, eastern US and Europe could get colder even during a global warming. Sometimes I wonder if they don't understand or if they just pretend not to...

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    3. Re:Why now? by KlaymenDK · · Score: 1

      I think you vastly overestimate the degree of weather observation that actually gets done, and our understanding of the weather system.

      Very likely, yes. Thanks for the insight.

      Oh and by the way, I'm not reading any global warming (dis)proof into this -- that's one thing I *know* I'm not qualified for. :D

    4. Re:Why now? by tpheiska · · Score: 1

      It didn't take that long.

      I distinctly remember hearing about this in a lecture back in 2006 in Kiruna space campus. They have investigated stuff like this for a while there and remarked that spacecraft launches 'also' cause them. Shuttles were not specifically mentioned.

      The clouds that are not man-made were said to dissolve ozone, but not in big quantities, they are completely "natural".

      --
      "wahts woring iwth my tyoping?"
    5. Re:Why now? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doctor House?

    6. Re:Why now? by skeffstone · · Score: 1

      This is proof of global warming! A high-altitude cloud surface does a better job in trapping radiation than reflecting it, so boom, man-made greenhouse. In combination with less low-altitude cloud cover (for some reason, speculatively from less solar activity, less cosmic particle showers, less water-droplet-seeds), which are good at reflecting light, we have a powerful greenhouse effect, maybe totally dominating any CO2 greenhouse effect. Would be fun if somone could quantatively back this up :p

    7. Re:Why now? by wiredlogic · · Score: 1

      Because the shuttle connection is just sensationalist journalism. This will necessarily happen for any rocket that emits water vapor at the appropriate altitude. There are launches going up all the time so the occurrences aren't as easily correlated to the shuttle.

      --
      I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
    8. Re:Why now? by Morty · · Score: 1

      Indeed, the article implies that it is old news that noctilucent clouds can be caused by the shuttle. The new point in the article is that Tunguska was the likely cause of noctilucent clouds that occurred shortly after, which implies an impacting body containing a lot of water rather than a lot of rock. The slashdot article summary does actually convey this, although the slashdot article title is misleading.

      Note that there are parallels here with the first manned American orbital mission. John Glenn observed "sparks" that were later determined to be water vapor. Although I don't think those were visible from the ground as noctilucent clouds.

  16. Facts FUD by Meor · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Only 300 metric tons? By doing a simple 1 minute Google search I've found that a single cloud weighs on the order of 100 tons-100,000 tons and more. Great bullshit kdawson.

  17. got volume? by distantbody · · Score: 1

    So the volume of shuttle exhaust material is enough to fill a significant portion of the upper atmosphere of the North Pole?
    Why don't we see people rolling around choking at shuttle launches as the huge volume of exhaust displaces the breathable atmosphere from sea-level to stratosphere?

    1. Re:got volume? by mudimba · · Score: 1

      I'm no rocket scientist, but I am pretty sure that they largely use liquid oxygen for the rocket boosters. Most of the exhaust is probably water vapor and oxygen.

    2. Re:got volume? by BenihanaX · · Score: 1

      Easy enough to verify. Aaaaaand, nope. Only the shuttle's main engines use liquid oxygen/hydrogen. The boosters use a solid mixture and each one provides over twice the force generated by all three main engines combined (therefore it's safe to assume the boosters are expelling a significant amount of the total exhaust).

    3. Re:got volume? by BoogieChile · · Score: 1

      Except that the boosters are done by about 46 kilometres. From there on up, the shuttle runs on its main engines.

  18. Some one on ./ mentioned this was the cause by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Somebody on ./ said this was a likely cause of the clouds. Wow there are smart people in here :-)

  19. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Sebilrazen · · Score: 1

    The previous Slashdot thread included the tidbit that the first noctilucent clouds mentioned in recorded history were in 1887 (also noted here). So unless someone was using hydrogen-oxygen rocketry almost a full century before the first shuttle launch, it would seem that they are not purely anthropogenic.

    Cheers,

    Good point. I'm not an astrophysicist or anything, but could meteorite's from carbonaceous chondrites, or micro-comets, ejecting their mass at the clouds' altitude cause the phenomenon naturally?

    --
    "There are no facts, only interpretations." --Friedrich Nietzsche.
  20. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Toonol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    My theory, then, is that they were caused by the advent of photography, in much the same way Color was invented in the 50s.

  21. Carbon credits for shuttle launches? by wisebabo · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So, can shuttle launches get "carbon credits"? (I know that they aren't actually reducing carbon emissions but if these clouds reduce global warming perhaps they'd be eligible). Is the amount so negligible that it wouldn't come close to offsetting the (horrendously) expensive launches?

    Do other spacecraft (Arianne, Delta, Soyuz) also create these clouds?

    1. Re:Carbon credits for shuttle launches? by maxwell+demon · · Score: 3, Informative

      Since the water vapor brought into the atmosphere in high altitudes likely increases global warming (water vapor is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2), I don't think they could get carbon credits.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    2. Re:Carbon credits for shuttle launches? by jonadab · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > (water vapor is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2)

      That's kind of like saying gasoline is more flammable than wood.

      As infrequent as shuttle launches are, the relatively tiny amount of water vapor they've released is almost certainly not a significant contributor to global warming. There's just not enough quantity there.

      But if somehow a *lot* of water got up there, enough to form a continuous layer from the equator to the poles, you'd be looking at world-wide year-round subtropical temperatures, not much temperature change from day to night, very little convection and thus no significant wind, and probably the only rain would be directly above bodies of standing water.

      Humidity would achieve world-wide equilibrium, so there'd be no deserts and no rain forests, not to mention no glaciers. Pretty much the entire land surface of the world would be inhabitable.

      Talk about terraforming!

      We have easily enough water to do this. It's just a matter of how to get it up there.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
    3. Re:Carbon credits for shuttle launches? by RealGrouchy · · Score: 1

      Since the water vapor brought into the atmosphere in high altitudes likely increases global warming (water vapor is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2), I don't think they could get carbon credits.

      Maybe not now, but when NASA reduces its GHG emissions when the shuttle program ends?

      - RG>

      --
      Hey pal, this isn't a pleasantforest, so don't waste my time with pleasantries!
  22. Will reflectivity of NLCs moderate global warming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NLCs reflect sunlight back into space (lowering the amount of sunlight reaching the earth by some TBD amount). If NLCs increase, will they ever reflect enough sunlight back out into space to moderate the factors that contribute to global warming?

  23. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Runaway1956 · · Score: 1

    "unless someone was using hydrogen-oxygen rocketry almost a full century before the first shuttle launch"

    Werner von Braun's grand daddy?

    --
    "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
  24. Causing, or contributing? by Zocalo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I can't read the article due to Slashdot effect, but if shuttle launches are contributing to or causing (big difference there!) the formation of the noctilucent clouds then there should be a correlation to check for. Specifically, there should be a fall in the number of observed clouds during the two extended periods of time when the shuttle wasn't flying following the Challenger and Columbia disasters. IIRC, there was a similar fall off in percentage cloud cover over the US during the days after 9/11 when almost no aircraft were flying within US airspace.

    --
    UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
    1. Re:Causing, or contributing? by drunken_boxer777 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's an interesting point. Similarly, I wonder if the conditions that NASA chooses to launch during are related to conditions that allow noctilucent cloud formation.

    2. Re:Causing, or contributing? by mykdavies · · Score: 2, Informative

      I can't read the article due to Slashdot effect, but if shuttle launches are contributing to or causing (big difference there!) the formation of the noctilucent clouds then there should be a correlation to check for.

      They did and there was - http://www.nrl.navy.mil/pressRelease.php?Y=2003&R=35-03r

      --
      The world has changed and we all have become metal men.
  25. Easiest waste of modpoints by BenevolentP · · Score: 3, Funny

    Wow, that was the easiest way to get rid of these pesky modpoints ever. Go back to the old article and retroactively mod everyone up who vaguely mentioned something spaceshuttly.

    1. Re:Easiest waste of modpoints by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then post in order to vapourise those pesky mod points... Brilliant! Think of all the WOMs you can save by not accumulating all those mod points.

    2. Re:Easiest waste of modpoints by Rakshasa+Taisab · · Score: 1

      Yeah, reading comprehension should be a requirement for posting on /. ^_^

      --
      - These characters were randomly selected.
  26. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  27. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ahah! So, "From the Earth to the Moon" was a documentary, and not fictional (so, it's the opposite of the moon landing shots).

    Now you've done it! You'll soon be receiving a visit from some extraordinary gentlemen.

  28. Amazing... by Linuss · · Score: 0

    I've seen this, they are one of the most beautiful things ever to reach my eye. Was around 1998 in california after a space shuttle launch, it looked like we had Northern Lights all of a sudden, huge swathes of purple and green whisks of clouds all across the night sky, visible right during a typical beautiful california sunset. Man... good times.

    1. Re:Amazing... by BenihanaX · · Score: 1

      Citation needed.

  29. Re:Facts FUD by internettoughguy · · Score: 1

    So 300 pounds is within that range, and your point is?

  30. Re:Facts FUD by internettoughguy · · Score: 1

    *tons

  31. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by BenihanaX · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Had you RTFA you would have seen this:

    Scientists at the time suggested that the night-shining clouds over London were made of meteoritic dust. But those aerosols are typically too small to reflect sunlight efficiently, Kelley argues, suggesting the clouds above Europe were made of ice crystals. This assumption, along with the new analysis of shuttle plume movement, strongly suggests that the object that blazed into the atmosphere and disintegrated above Siberia was a moisture-rich comet rather than a relatively dry asteroid.

  32. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by icebike · · Score: 4, Interesting

    And what happened around that time?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

    You totally miss the point of the story. Its not the fuel mixture. Its the fact that large amounts of water vapor find their way to the upper atmosphere. Some by natural causes. Some by shuttle launches.

    --
    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
  33. This is *OLD* news... see APOD! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    From June, 2003:
    http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap030615.html .... note the last sentence.
    6 years.

    Sometimes it takes main stream media a while to catch on.

    Note that this APOD entry has further links to US Navy research on the topic.

  34. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

    The previous article also noted it could have been due to Krakatoa Island sending house sized bits of itself into low earth orbit four years earlier.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  35. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by MadKeithV · · Score: 1

    That's a non-sequitur. There may be multiple anthropogenic causes for noctilucent clouds, some of which could have existed in 1887. Industrial revolution, etc.

  36. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by hcpxvi · · Score: 5, Informative

    Noctilucent clouds occur over a very small altitude range (about 82-84 km) Observations of the same cloud from different locations can be used to find the height by triangulation. ISTR that the 1887 observation did this and that it is therefore a genuine observation of NLC.

    The question of whether there were no NLC before this date was a contentious one last time I asked. Some make the argument that NLC are very distinctive and that if they were there we would have records going back to the Viking era, as we do with the Aurora Borealis. Others, however, argue that NLC look sufficiently like other clouds and are sufficiently unremarkable to the casual observer that it is not surprising that there are no descriptions prior to 1887. (Remember that the idea that it is worth naming and describing clouds only really goes back to Luke Howard in the early 1800s.)

  37. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by zmooc · · Score: 1

    Also recorded in history is this account of a close encounter of the third kind in 1887 ;-))

    http://home.pacbell.net/joerit/docs2/crash/1887crsh.htm

    --
    0x or or snor perron?!
  38. Chemtrails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    are obvious Chemtrails.

  39. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Sebilrazen · · Score: 1

    This is /., very few actually RTFA.

    CM and CI carbonaceous chondrites are the ones I was thinking about specifically, they aren't that "dry" compared to other asteroids.

    --
    "There are no facts, only interpretations." --Friedrich Nietzsche.
  40. Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

    Such nonsense. Recently noctilucent clouds have been observed with uncommon frequency all over the world, not just the US: http://www.nlcnet.co.uk/

    These idiotic explanations (global warming, space shuttle) show that a political agenda is being protected. It is quite simple: noctilucent clouds are a symptom of cooling of the upper atmosphere. Only that allows ice crystals to survive at a height of 80 kilometers at such low latitudes.

    This true explanation cannot be allowed to penetrate the public mind because it constitutes evidence that conflicts with the attempt to sell the global warming scam and impose a carbon tax. Hence the bullshit.

    1. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by bcmm · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure temperatures at 80km up have been cold enough for ice for several million years at least.

      Wikipedia says that the mesosphere extends from 50 to 80-85 km up, and the thermosphere from 80-85 to over 640km, and that the mesopause (the boundary between the two layers, at 80-85km) "is the coldest place on Earth, with a temperature of 100C". The really hot bit is well above the mesopause.

      Not to mention that cooling of parts of the atmosphere, if it was real, would still be evidence of climate change. No one is claiming that the whole earth is going to smoothly warm up in step.

      --
      # cat /dev/mem | strings | grep -i llama
      Damn, my RAM is full of llamas.
    2. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      Wikipedia says that the mesosphere extends from 50 to 80-85 km up, and the thermosphere from 80-85 to over 640km, and that the mesopause (the boundary between the two layers, at 80-85km) "is the coldest place on Earth, with a temperature of 100C".

      Make that -100C, but yes, true, it is well below freezing. However, the somewhat more physically complete explanation than simply "the upper atmosphere is getting colder" is that less energy is being put into the upper atmosphere on account of unusually low UV and X-ray emissions of the sun.

      During the current solar minimum, which has extended well beyond the time it should have, there have been very few sunspots. The number of sunspots is strongly correlated to the UV and X-ray emissions of the solar corona which constitute a significant fraction of the overall solar flux. This strongly variable component of the solar output is the main driver of global warming or, as happens to have been the case since about 1998, global cooling.

    3. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by jagsta · · Score: 2, Informative

      Please, how have you managed to turn this into a rant about a global warming conspiracy?

      There are 3 requirements for these clouds to form:

      1. Dust in the mesosphere to seed the accumulations
      2. Moisture in the mesosphere
      3. Temperatures less than about 150K

      There isn't a lot of either dust or water in this part of the atmosphere, and things like volcanic eruptions, and shuttle launches are one mechanism by which large quantities of both can be transported to this layer of the atmosphere, which is what TFA is saying.

      The clouds themselves form when the temperature in this layer is low, and the lowest temperatures in this region occur in summer, counterintuitively. This is of course when temperatures are highest in the lower atmosphere.

      So, the cooling you refer to hasn't got any established relationship with the "scam" of global warming, and if it did, it wouldn't support your argument.

    4. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      It is related to global warming/cooling as follows: the required low temperatures in the upper atmosphere are only attained if the solar UV/EUV/X-ray flux, mostly originating from the solar corona, is very low: that part of the spectrum does not penetrate well and hence is absorbed in the upper atmosphere.

      Since this UV/EUV/X-ray flux is a significant fraction of the solar output and varies strongly with coronal conditions, it is the most important driver of global warming/cooling. The solar corona is a very dynamic system which currently is in a quiescent state on account of the anomalously low number of solar spots. As a consequence it has been cooling in recent years, in spite of all the bullshit being published to the contrary: the raw data does not lie.

    5. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Since this UV/EUV/X-ray flux is a significant fraction of the solar output and varies strongly with coronal conditions, it is the most important driver of global warming/cooling.

      And that's why you see a strong correlation between solar output and global mean temperature!

      Except, of course, there is no such correlation. After all, as you say, "the data does not lie". Whoops!

    6. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      And that's why you see a strong correlation between solar output and global mean temperature! Except, of course, there is no such correlation.

      Don't be stupid. As any child knows, the sun heats the earth so there is obviously a correlation between solar output and earth temperature.

      However, the highly variable part of the solar output is mostly in the UV/EUV/X-ray range and as such is not easy to measure on earth. No correlations of global temperature with ground-based or narrow-band solar flux measurements are to be expected.

      For the recent trend in global temperatures, see here: http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/12865.

    7. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Don't be stupid. As any child knows, the sun heats the earth so there is obviously a correlation between solar output and earth temperature.

      How ironic. You accuse me of stupidity while, apparently, not understanding the term "mean global temperature".

      No correlations of global temperature with ground-based or narrow-band solar flux measurements are to be expected.

      Bullshit. We've had satellites studying the sun for decades.

      You're basically suggesting some sort of solar output measurement that's been growing, and no one has noticed because, here on earth, we are unable to observe it. It's certainly an interesting idea, but unless you can provide relevant evidence or citations demonstrating that such bands are experiencing independent increases in output separate from the regular solar cycle, I would politely suggest that your extraordinary theory is based on nothing but hot air.

    8. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      For the recent trend in global temperatures, see here: http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/12865.

      As an aside, I'm not sure it was intentional, but you've done a very good job of citing an article which illustrates the dangers of cherrypicking data to suit your own agenda. I mean, honestly, selecting the last 5 years and using that to pick out a temperature trend. It's absolutely absurd. And it's well known that El Nino was responsible for the spike in global temperature in the mid-90s. The real point is that the long term trend is still upward, even if the short-term trend has been flatter.

    9. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      How ironic. You accuse me of stupidity while, apparently, not understanding the term "mean global temperature".

      Imagine the solar output doubles. What do you figure will happen to the mean global temperature? Assume it halves. What will happen? In what way is that not a correlation?

      We've had satellites studying the sun for decades.

      Indeed, and guess what: we have found strong variations in UV output http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/klu/sola/1998/00000177/00000001/00134956?crawler=true. The shorter the wavelength, the more extreme the variations.

      The variations are definitely correlated to the solar cycle which is not surprising: coronal conditions are strongly influenced by the entangled magnetic field loops pinned to sunspots since the charged particles in the corona track those loops on account of the Lorentz force. And it is known that the sunspot number rises and falls as to sun goes through the solar cycle maximum and minimum. However, the current cycle has an anomalously low number of sunspots and an extended minimum.

      To get some idea as to what fraction of the short wavelength flux stems from the corona, have a look at the following images: http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/

    10. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Imagine the solar output doubles. What do you figure will happen to the mean global temperature? Assume it halves. What will happen? In what way is that not a correlation?

      Yes, my point exactly. And since solar output has a predictable variation, and that variation *does not correlate with global mean temperature*, the link between solar output and global warming is tenuous at best.

      The variations are definitely correlated to the solar cycle which is not surprising

      Oh FFS, so you admit, then, that the variations in these other bands are linked to the solar cycle.

      Meanwhile, the rise in global temperatures which we call "global warming", which has been on an extreme upward slope for at *least* the last 50 years does *not* correlate to the solar cycle, which runs on a roughly 11-year cycle.

      So with your very own data, you've managed to discredit your own theory. Nice work!

    11. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      Oh FFS, so you admit, then, that the variations in these other bands are linked to the solar cycle.

      Yes they are linked, but not in the simple way you seem to suggest. The linking mechanism to the solar cycle I described is indirect. Also, UV/EUV/X-ray output variation have been observed to occur on much shorter timescales than the 11 year solar cycle. Part of that has of course to do with solar flares, but there are also medium-timescale (days/weeks) variations that correlate to changes in the solar wind proton and neutral atomic hydrogen flux.

      Moreover, the precise origin of the UV/EUV/X-ray coronal flux is enigmatic at best: the temperature of the solar corona is 1-2 million degrees Kelvin and there are no good quantitative explanations for how it can sustain that high temperature in spite losing energy rapidly (through that very UV/EUV/X-ray flux radiating out into space).

      In short, it is a complex mess with many theoretical unknowns. But the observations make clear that the UV/EUV/X-ray flux constitutes an important fraction of the solar output, and that this flux varies strongly on multiple timescales.

    12. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      And unless you can provide evidence that said flux has shown an increasing trend over the last 50 years (okay, let's say the last 20 or so, since we've had reliable satellite data), your supposition that those bands are linked to GW is baseless.

      In case you don't understand this argument, let me rephrase: The global mean temperature has been markedly increasing (and the rate of increase has been increasing) for at least the last 50 years. Whatever mechanism you claim is linked to GW must, therefore, show a corresponding change over the same time period. Certainly solar output, as typically measured, does not follow this trend, and therefore cannot be the cause for GW. Thus far, you have *not* provided evidence that flux in the UV or other bands has increased over the last 50 years, and thus so far, you have failed to provide evidence for your theory (and have, in fact, done the exact opposite, in my opinion).

    13. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      And unless you can provide evidence that said flux has shown an increasing trend over the last 50 years (okay, let's say the last 20 or so, since we've had reliable satellite data), your supposition that those bands are linked to GW is baseless.

      I am sure you can agree that simple physics dictates that variations in the solar flux must drive global average temperatures. After all, the energy present in the solar radiation reaching the earth is mostly absorbed by the earth's atmosphere, surface, and sea. This heats the earth's atmosphere directly and indirectly on a global scale. An increase or decrease in the solar output will therefore cause a matching increase or decrease in atmospheric heating and hence warm or cool the earth.

      What you must be doubting, therefore, is whether changes in the solar flux are the main factor in increasing or (as is the case currently) decreasing global average temperatures.

      You can answer this question for yourself by seeing what fraction of the total solar energy output lies in the variable UV/EUV/X-ray part of the spectrum.

      Hint #1: it is a much larger number than you may suspect from the black-body spectrum derived from the solar surface temperature. The corona is excessively hot and responsible for most of the EUV and X-ray emissions.

      Here is a good place to start http://www.usc.edu/dept/space_science/missions/SEH-3/SEH-3.html. Quoting:

      The full disk extreme ultraviolet (EUV) solar radiation is a major energy source, whose magnitude is required in modeling the scattering, ionization, and heating of planetary atmospheres, moons, comets, and the inflowing interplanetary/instellar medium.

    14. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Wow, you just don't get it. Look up the definition of the word "correlated". Then look at the solar output over the last 50 years. Then look at the global mean temperature for the last 50 years, and the rate of change of the global mean temperature over the last 50 years. Then apply the aforementioned definition to those data sets. You might discover, much to your surprise, that there is *no correlation* between the increase in global mean temperature and the change in solar output over the last 50 years.

      Furthermore, in case you miss it while looking up the aforementioned definition, while correlation does not imply caustion, correlation is *required* for causation. If two variables are not correlated, then one *cannot be causing the other*. In this case, solar variability *cannot explain away global warming*.

      Honestly, at this point I'm beginning to wonder if I'm just getting trolled. That or we're simply talking past each other. As far as I can tell, you are implying that solar variation explains global warming. As I've explained, that's false. Rather than rebutting my position, you've chosen to ignore the argument entirely. So either you're *not* implying that solar variation explains global warming, or your reading comprehension is sorely lacking.

    15. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      I guess part of the confusion lies in that we use a different meaning for "global warming". What I mean is an increase in the average global atmospheric temperature, something which can have many causes. I think you mean something more narrow: anthropogenic greenhouse-gas driven global warming.

      Then look at the solar output over the last 50 years.

      That cannot be done. We do not have that data. A lot of the solar output is in the EUV. It has only recently started to be measured: http://www.usc.edu/dept/space_science/missions/SEH-3/SEH-3.html. However, within the context of that limited data you may discern a tentative correlation between the recent decrease in global temperature, the current occurrence of noctilucent clouds, and this graph: http://www.usc.edu/dept/space_science/sem_data/SEM%20Data%20Graphs/SEM_1996-2009.jpg

      Obviously, there are more factors to be considered. For example, that the decrease in global temperatures started a bit earlier than the maximum in that graph is likely because 1997-1998 were El Niño years.

      Also, given how politicized climate science has become, I do not have much confidence in the accuracy of the global temperature data sets being foisted on us: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/24/uk-met-office-and-dr-phil-jones-pay-no-attention-to-that-man-behind-the-curtain/

    16. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      That cannot be done. We do not have that data.

      And, again, that's a bullshit cop-out. At minimum, we have had solar output data from satellites for decades, now, which is more than enough to determine if there's a correlation between the observed increase in global mean temperature and solar output. The answer, which is hardly surprising, is that there is no such correlation.

      Anyway, it's clear you're unwilling to listen to actual reason, so I'm done here. Hopefully anyone reading this thread will see how disjoint and irrational the arguments of some of the anti-AGW folks really are.

    17. Re:Noctilucent clouds have been observed in Europe by Eukariote · · Score: 1

      At minimum, we have had solar output data from satellites for decades, now, which is more than enough to determine if there's a correlation between the observed increase in global mean temperature and solar output.

      No we have not had that. Realize that measuring the solar flux in the EUV and X-ray spectrum is not that easy even when in space. These wavelengths are easily absorbed: lenses and mirrors cannot be used to focus those photons on a detector. You need tricky instruments like grazing-incidence spectrometers. Also, early on people were not aware of the importance of the short-wavelength part of the solar spectrum and as such were not sending up the right instruments.

      Anyway, it's clear you're unwilling to listen to actual reason, so I'm done here.

      That's funny when you are ignoring observations of obvious relevance. I showed you a graph with a factor of three variation in the solar flux in a fairly broad wavelength band. At the very least that should have made you think twice.

      Hopefully anyone reading this thread will see how disjoint and irrational the arguments of some of the anti-AGW folks really are.

      I think anyone reading this thread is quite capable of perceiving that your argument is the shrill sounding one, and that you are unwilling to consider basic physics and observational data.

  41. just typical American by markringen · · Score: 1

    poor quality american electronics. if the entire system was built by the Russians we wouldn't even have a single issue... the advantage of the russian system is that it isn't man-controlled, if 1 single blip comes up on their computer the entire shuttle is turned-off it can't take off (like the hacked around nasa ones). it was funny when on the discovery channel the Russian ISS engineers said: we always have to rewire all the american made ISS parts because everything is done in inches (the only country in the world to do anything in inches). just face it NASA: a bankrupt state can supply better products, than one which pretends to be the richest...

  42. Wishful thinking by S-100 · · Score: 1

    More wishful thinking that man's slightest activity can cause changes on a global scale. The numbers don't add up. Sure, that's a lot of tons of water vapor sent up a couple of times a year, but compared to the volume of the hemisphere's atmosphere, it's virtually nothing. Add to that the osmotic pressures that cause dilution, supersonic currents that dissipate the vapor, and the movement of the ship itself which leaves just a slender tendril through the air. Now we are expected to believe that this water vapor hangs together and goes off to Antarctica and Alaska to form distinctive clouds?

  43. Self-enforced Ignorance by DynaSoar · · Score: 1

    "In our recent discussion of the phenomenon of noctilucent clouds..." ... we had plenty of input on the history and nature of them, including an uncharacteristically (for recent examples) detailed and accurate recounting from Wired.

    So how is it one can reference an article with such good, clear information, and then utterly ignore all of that in order to posit such a ridiculous assertion? Worse than submission of such junk articles is the complete lack of editorial effort in determining whether the submission is worth posting.

    As to whether these predate the observed appearance following the Krakatoa eruption, it might be useful to inquire of those who'd be likely to have historical sightings -- arctic or near arctic natives such as Yup'ik, Saami or Tungusk.

    --
    "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
  44. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That was the comet that broke the mountain's back. It had a lasting effect on the gender known as "cowboys".

    Great excitement exists in the vicinity and the round-up is
    suspended while the cowboys wait for the wonderful find to cool off
    so they can examine it.

    [...]

    They were astounded to see that the queer object had melted [...] The air was filled with a faint,
    sweetish smell.

  45. Launch more shuttles! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So they illuminate our nights and warm up the poles? Sounds great. I want more of those. Never mind the islanders, they should have started building floating cities and submarine bubbles years ago.

  46. seen these for years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've seen these for years, while living in Omaha and Fargo. They are pretty.

    For all the "Save the Earth" people, the Earth's climate is self regulating. Any swings of high or low temperatures, alter weather to bring it back towards normal. Why are we worrying so much about this?

    Ice ages happen. Hot ages happen. I'm doubtful there is anything we can do to prevent this.

  47. FYI, these clouds are in the mesosphere ... by jdagius · · Score: 1

    ... which is the layer of the atmosphere, 50km-85km, immediately above the statosphere. This is a very lonely place, the air's too thin to float baloons, airplanes and such, and too thick for orbiting spacecraft. Its major inhabitants are falling meteors and rocket ships enroute to outer spaces. Also hosts the D Layer of the ionosphere (during daylight hours) which tends to absorb radio waves transmitted from the ground.
    Convection stops in the stratosphere (because there is no temperature inversion there) so very difficult for gases and vapors rising from the ground to reach this desolate place.
    :-)

  48. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by jonadab · · Score: 2, Informative

    > My theory, then, is that they were caused by the advent of
    > photography, in much the same way Color was invented in the 50s.

    You're off by a couple of decades. The world turned color starting in the thirties. Although, it was pretty grainy color for a while.

    --
    Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
  49. Cognitive filtering by argStyopa · · Score: 2, Informative

    Here's what I find interesting: the bulk of the 'data' behind anthropogenic global warming points to a rise in temps THIS century of a small handful of degrees. The concern is over the consequences of a further rise of, again, a small handful of degrees.

    Now, drag out all the charts, graphs, and politically-motivated reports you want, for and against; the only actual modern large-scale experiment that gives us any proof regarding human impact on temperature was the week after 9/11.

    The complete lack of aircraft over the US had a SIGNIFICANT effect on high and low temperatures immediately.

    Couple that with this current evidence that a single shuttle launch can apparently impact cloud formation over the Antarctic, and I'd say that's a far-more-tangible red flag than the supposed connections made over CO2 or other 'global warming' gases.

    So why isn't there a significant, sustained effort to minimize air travel?

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:Cognitive filtering by OrangeDoor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I am unsure about your reasoning regarding the effect of airplanes, seems like there are many dots missing. Firstly, link about the temperature drop from no aircraft? That is curious and I wonder if it has a much greater effect because of the altitude at which the gases are released (though the long-term result may be the same despite the immediate evidence, that is all the ground level gas released is just as damaging as that from the airplanes).

      Secondly, What is the effect of noctilucent clouds on on our atmosphere? Is it clear? Could they be protecting us/earth from some solar radiation? Or are they having the opposite effect (increasing the greenhouse-effect, and/or reflecting more solar radiation into our atmosphere)?

      Idea: Nanoparticles (or other charged dust) blasted beyond the stratosphere that we can control! Keep it where it can block the sun, occasionally produce festive light shows, and keep the alien's from reading our collective thoughts!

      --
      "Too lazy to fail." - Heinlein
    2. Re:Cognitive filtering by hawkfish · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Now, drag out all the charts, graphs, and politically-motivated reports you want, for and against; the only actual modern large-scale experiment that gives us any proof regarding human impact on temperature was the week after 9/11.

      It was three days. Citation with reference here.

      The complete lack of aircraft over the US had a SIGNIFICANT effect on high and low temperatures immediately.

      Three days is far too short a time period to say anything conclusive about climate. You might as well argue that the sustained low temperatures last winter are a sign that the world is cooling...

      Couple that with this current evidence that a single shuttle launch can apparently impact cloud formation over the Antarctic, and I'd say that's a far-more-tangible red flag than the supposed connections made over CO2 or other 'global warming' gases.

      So why isn't there a significant, sustained effort to minimize air travel?

      You mean like this? Judging from this and the rest of your comments, you really need to get out more...

      --
      You will not drink with us, but you would taste our steel? - Walter Matthau, The Pirates
    3. Re:Cognitive filtering by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How is CO2 from cars or power plants different from airplanes (besides that airplane exhaust is already at 30,000 feet (10,000m)?

      Hopefully the solar sun spots will start up again to see if they are more of a factor versus CO2 levels, since CO2 levels have come down in the past 8 months (they say). Though it is still pretty hot in Phoenix.

    4. Re:Cognitive filtering by radtea · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So why isn't there a significant, sustained effort to minimize air travel?

      Because we like air travel and hate industry. Minimizing air travel would inconvenience too many of "the right kind of people."

      The same kind of thinking can be seen in the summary: "It now appears that these clouds are simply the product of Shuttle launches." The key word here is "simply", implying that there's nothing to worry about, because shuttle launches are a Good Thing.

      AGW may be real--the signal in ocean heat content is pretty damned interesting, if maybe not quite compelling--but the argument around it is almost entirely driven by social engineers who want to use the non-zero risk of a civilization-ending climate event to empower themselves and their friends.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    5. Re:Cognitive filtering by Reziac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Considering how variable the weather is in September, how can you be sure you're seeing causation, and not mere correlation? Having 3 or 4 days of temps significantly warmer or cooler than the week before is normal that time of year, as it's when winter fronts start moving across the continent.

      While I've seen the sky completely haze over between morning and afternoon due to contrail spreading (if you work outside all day and can watch the sky, you can see this happen) I'm still not convinced it's significant. How much of the moisture was already there, and condensed due to the air disruption??

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    6. Re:Cognitive filtering by jombeewoof · · Score: 1

      So why isn't there a significant, sustained effort to minimize air travel?

      $$$

      not too hard to figure out. and really what is the alternative to air travel for moving vast amounts of people vast distances.
      I don't know, but you seem to have all the answers.

      --
      Linux Zealots: Smarter than Mac Zealots, but still zealots.
    7. Re:Cognitive filtering by mr+exploiter · · Score: 1

      This comment is bullshit and may be part of the hidden anti-global-warming-efforts campaign that we see so often here on Slashdot.

      The combined data of hundreds of thousands of measurements data points across the glove and for many years is the proof of global warming, not what happens for a week after 9/11 (statistically irrelevant).

    8. Re:Cognitive filtering by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      "Hidden?"

      HAHAHAAHAHA

      Let me be clear: I SUSPECT THAT THE PANIC OVER AGW IS FUD.

      I can outline my position succinctly with these 5 questions.

      Q: Is the planet warming?
      A: Unclear. *Most* data seems to point to an overall warming trend that is also inducing pattern changes that may even result in localized cooling.

      Q: Is this warming unusual?
      A: No. All historical climate data points to the fact that the climate changes over time in varying cycles. According to all long-term plots (example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:65_Myr_Climate_Change.png) , we are in an extended cool period; the globe has generally been very much warmer over history. Does that mean we're 'due' for warming? Unclear. It's possible that the current warming is happening faster than most warming periods, but it's not the fastest ever, at least as far as we can tell from historical data.

      Q: is this warming caused by humans or human activity?
      A: Unclear. Previous warming cycles happened without humans, so it's hard to identify any reason that humans 'happen' to be at fault for this one.

      Q: but doesn't the 'hockey stick' graph prove the warming came from human activity?
      A: No. The 'hockey stick' is an example of cherry-picked, massaged data. Is it warmer than it was 1000 years ago? Yes. Is it warmer than last year? No. Than 30 years ago? No. Than 100,000 years ago? No.

      Q: But you're not a climatologist! They all say AGW is real.
      A: You're right. But when a doctor tells me something that contradicts common sense, I get a second, or perhaps third opinion before acting drastically. I've pulled RAW data myself from www.ncdc.noaa.gov, plotted it and looked at it myself, without either side 'interpreting' it for me. I don't see a trend that sticks out of the chaos.
      On the other hand, it's logical to me that humans ARE warming the planet - practically every human activity generates heat, as well as the albedo effect of paving everything in asphalt. The 'urban heat island' effect is obvious, why wouldn't it scale when more and more and more of our land surface is being urbanized?

      I'm simply unconvinced at this point. Note: I'm not saying it's bullshit, I'm saying that I'm unconvinced. The cast of characters trying to convince me of AGW (balding eco-nuts from the 70s, leftist politicians, histrionic actors convinced of their relevance, etc.) is NOT helping the cause. They're wrong about just about everything else that I *can* check.

      Personally, I think there are far more serious issues of pollution, energy-dependence, overpopulation, etc that need our attention far more urgently. If they net out at reducing a potential impact on global warming, great, but that shouldn't be the driver.
      In *ANY* conceivable future, the climate WILL change, sometimes drastically. Sea level has not remained constant in earth's history, it's pure solipsism to believe that natural processes will stop right 'here' at some theoretical human-optimum (we don't even know THAT for a fact, just that rising sea levels will be inconvenient to the urban centers whose location and growth is the result of not careful planning, but NOTHING more than human convenience...).

      --
      -Styopa
  50. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Verteiron · · Score: 2, Informative

    Thank you, Calvin's dad.

    --
    End of lesson. You may press the button.
  51. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Talderas · · Score: 3, Funny

    Schroedinger's Noctilucent Cloud?

    It doesn't exist until you photograph it?

    --
    "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
  52. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dude, UFOs.

  53. spread the wealth... by tjstork · · Score: 1

    So the volume of shuttle exhaust material is enough to fill a significant portion of the upper atmosphere of the North Pole?

    Really depends on how much you spread it out. If the air up there was only 1/1000 thick as it is a sea level, then, a volume of gas which might be a cubic 100 meters at sea level would be considerably larger in the upper atmosphere... miles across maybe.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:spread the wealth... by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Which gave me this odd thought: Since the planet continuously loses some atmosphere into space -- maybe it behooves us to thicken up that top layer and slow down the process... ;)

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  54. Growing up in New York City by NetNinja · · Score: 1

    I remember growing up in New York when the Space Shuttle launched it always rained the next day.

    1. Re:Growing up in New York City by Tacvek · · Score: 1

      Sure, but it rains often enough up there that I would not be willing to blame the shuttle. More likely the times that conditions are best in Florida for a shuttle launch tend to come the day before it rains in New York.

      But I'm sure you posted your anecdote more to be humorous than to seriously suggest a causal link.

      --
      Stylish sheet to fix many problems in Slashdot's D3: https://gist.github.com/801524
  55. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by FriendlyPrimate · · Score: 1

    The claim is not that shuttle launches are the cause for all noctilucent clouds, but rather the recent dramatic increase in sightings of this previously rare phenomenon.

  56. Statistics needed by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    In the science field, there's a saying "anecdotes are not data."

    Let's see some real statistics.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  57. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    what a strange page to link to for your historical information, furthermore, that page says nothing about sending bits into orbit

  58. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Old+Sparky · · Score: 2, Insightful
  59. few airplanes after 9-11 changed atmosphere by peter303 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Interesting PBS NOVA show on Global Dimming or the effects of a hundred thousand US jet flights a day. they mostly halted the three days after 9-11. The upper atmosphere become noticeably more clear in that short period.

  60. correlationisevidence tag reeks of hypocrisy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    because there was so much more evidence that this was caused by global warming
    man-made global warming itself is just as much correlationisevidence

  61. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You idiot! RTFA!

  62. NLC's have been noted over a hundred years ago by CokeJunky · · Score: 1

    So is that evidence of alien visitation?

    --
    More Caffeine. NOW
  63. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Gilmoure · · Score: 0

    Yeah, sorta' like boobs.

    --
    I drank what? -- Socrates
  64. Re:Facts FUD by sentientbeing · · Score: 1

    1 Metric tonne of water is 1 cubic metre. It doesnt sound like much to me either In comparison, an olympic size swimming pool has 2m x 25m x 50m = 2500 metric tonnes of water.

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    beware he who would deny you access to information, for in his mind he dreams himself your master
  65. "So, man-made after all?" by HTH+NE1 · · Score: 1

    It's completely natural. Space launches are a natural product of evolution.

    Or, to put it another way: if God didn't want us to go into space, he wouldn't have made it so easy to react hydrogen with oxygen.

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    Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
  66. Re:Um, first observed in 1887 - well before shuttl by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

    Seven digit'r up there. 'Course they expect folks to RTFA.

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    I drank what? -- Socrates
  67. Vivid example photographed in Tucson by Peaquod · · Score: 1

    I was simply amazed to see this cloud formation until I read about the rocket launch at Vandenberg earlier that evening http://www.flickr.com/photos/peaqoud/2152740519/in/set-72157601528841883/

  68. Is actually secret NASA scheme to fill ozone holes by ibsteve2u · · Score: 1

    ...or actually secret is NASA activities cause ozone holes...or...

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    Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"