Will Google and Android Kill Standalone GPS?

xchg passes along a WiseAndroid piece on the drop in value of Garmin and TomTom shares following Google's announcement yesterday of Google Maps Navigation. "Shares of GPS device makers Garmin and TomTom plummeted... through a combination of their quarterly results and the launch of Google Maps Navigation. Following both low guidance for Garmin's next quarter as well as poor results from TomTom, shares for the two fell 16.4 percent and 20.8 percent respectively and remained low through the entire trading day after news of Google's free, turn-by-turn mapping service became public." Today Lauren Weinstein posted a number of reasons why standalone GPS won't go away any time soon.

Comments

No

[Anonymous Coward]

Some of us don't want or need cellphones.

They still make standalone mp3 players and pdas and cameras.

They still even make standalone cell phones.

For Android to kill GPS, they would have to offer it cheaper than a standalone and provide a working GPS function that did not require a cell phone service contract for it to work.

Re:No

[captjc]

The few curmudgeons who refuse to use functional smartphones are a negligible market. Unintegrated commuter GPS units are going to fall by the wayside in a couple years

I have to disagree. Smartphones are not as universally accepted as you would think. Everyone out there does not have a blackberry, iPhone, or Treo. Millions of people still are satisfied with the "free with plan" basic Motorolla/Nokia with calls, text, and a few crappy games built in. The smartphone is still a fraction of overall market sales, a sizeable fraction, but still not the end-all be-all of sales. You may be happy with your smartphone, but Joe Sixpack and Ma and Pa Kettle just want to make calls and send the occasional text message. Besides, not everyone wants to shell out hundreds of dollars when they can just pay ~$30 for a phone from the Verizon kiosk at the mall.

On another note, most people with GPS devices that I know don't want to use their phones for two reasons: a GPS stays mounted on the Dashboard of the car and because of the screen size. Try glancing at a map on a 1 inch cellphone screen while driving.

Re:No

[Andy Dodd]

This is why even with "Standalone" map software (e.g. software where all maps are stored on the device, thus not requiring any cellular coverage to work) for my AT&T Tilt 2 (which has a relatively large screen as PDA-phones go), I still use my standalone GPS - while the screen is lower resolution, it's larger. Actually TomTom's PDA software gets hard to use on high-res screens.

I would never use anything that required cellular coverage for basic navigation functions, even though the new Google solution supposedly caches your entire route, that doesn't help you if you miss a turn and go offroute and need a re-calc.

Re:No

[LoverOfJoy]

Here's a question: are standalone GPS significantly better than a cell phone GPS?

Because in the examples you gave, the standalones are miles ahead of the phone equivalent (at least in the majority of phones).

While cameras in phones are getting better, they still generally aren't the kind you'll want to print and put up on the wall.

MP3 players in phones tend to be nowhere near as usable as an ipod (or many other mp3 players).

PDAs I'm least familiar with (at least current ones) but I suspect the same still holds true there. Certainly a few years back the PDA I owned didn't have an affordable equivalent built into a phone and my PDA wasn't anywhere near top of the line at the time.

I have never used a GPS and wouldn't know the difference between what comes standard in a GPS phone versus what comes standard in a stand-alone unit. Is it enough for most people who already have the former to also pick up the latter?

Re:No

[Philip K Dickhead]

Let's kill Google, and hide the body under the floor.

Re:No

[Duradin]

If I was somewhere where I needed to use a GPS device I wouldn't want its battery being drained by cell phone functions blasting out at full power trying to reach a non-existent tower.

I have a cell phone. I have an mp3 player. My cell phone is not my mp3 player. I want the phone's battery to be ready for phone usage, not to be drained by playing music. Likewise I don't want my mp3 player's battery being drained by my cell phone. If I had a GPS device I wouldn't want it getting drained by cell phone use or playing music. Any GPS device I would buy would need to be much more durable and rugged than I would need for either my phone or mp3 player.

Re:No

[Ceiynt]

No sir, not the mobile. The Pipboy 3000.

Re:No

[Dun Malg]

Here's a question: are standalone GPS significantly better than a cell phone GPS?

Most standalone and cell phone GPS receivers are the same. Everyone is using a cheap commodity GPS receiver like the SiRFstar III. Dedicated GPS units often have a better antenna, but the data coming from the receiver is generally the same no matter what the device. Beyond that, it's all what you do with the data in software.

Re:No

[r_jensen11]

My Nokia has full GPS capabilities. This, combined with an Offline profile and maps of North America (I could do all continents if I plan on visiting them) saved on the phone, mean that I have a working GPS unit on the phone without the battery drain of a GSM or any other cell connection. The only thing which would require a connection to cell towers is if I wanted satellite pictures as opposed to maps. This is all a result of Nokia purchasing Navteq in 2007.

Now if only Nokia would push its v31 firmware upgrade to the NAM models so that I can use my GPS program in landscape mode....

Re:No

[Cajun Hell]

Millions of people still are satisfied with the "free with plan" basic Motorolla/Nokia with calls, text, and a few crappy games built in.

Of course they're satisfied with it. But how long will they continue to be able to get it?

Trying buying parts for a computer some time -- look at the prices -- and see what it would take to build something with 256MB of RAM, since that is "enough." You're going to find that 2GB of RAM is cheaper, because those strips are what is being mass-produced. Some day, you're going to want the cheapest, freest phone from your provider, and they are going to give you a supercomputer with integrated GPS, camera, music player, keychain, debit card magstrip emulator, universal IR remote, cigarette lighter, combo vibrating coffee-stirrer/dildo, and toaster, because it'll be cheaper for them to stock those as the low-end alternative, for the people who don't want to pay much extra for new trendy integrated stun gun or radio telescope (and even those will be free features, two generations later).

There are lots of .. little things .. that benefit from computer control, and maybe more importantly, a battery. It's efficient for them to all share one computer/battery. But once you start doing that, scale happens.

Re:No

[Dahamma]

So you want to carry three devices because you don't want each function to drain the other's batteries?

Basically you are just carrying around three batteries along with the extra bulk of three sets of electronics, screens, etc. And the extra battery drain of the overhead of duplicate components in each.

Just get a smartphone with a removable battery and two spares. You wouldn't even have to carry the spare batteries in your pocket everywhere to get the functionality of all three devices - just when you think you may need to switch batteries on the go.

Remember, this is about whether smartphones WILL kill GPS, not whether they already HAVE. 20 years ago cell phones were huge bricks, GPS wasn't even available to consumers, and MPEG was still in development. It's amazingly naive to think technological improvements in power management, battery life, durability, coverage, etc will make most of the arguments in this thread moot in the near future.

Re:No

[alieneye]

Bring your phone and 2 extra batteries. Problem solved.

Re:No

[badasscat]

Ironically, the places you need GPS the most are the places there is no cell phone coverage. As much as I like my Android its my Garmin that goes into the backpack.

In other words, the way you personally use your GPS device must be the way everyone else does, right?

You talk about putting your Garmin into your "backpack" and using it where there is no cell phone service. That's sounding to me like you're taking it hiking out in the back country. Which is fine, but that is not what most people use GPS for these days, nor is it what Google Navigation is intended for. It's intended for use while driving. (Indeed, many GPS devices produced these days will not work when off-road.)

Most places in the United States where there's a road, there's cell phone service. No, maybe not on some rural route in Idaho, but certainly in the most populated areas. And while it may seem counterintuitive, it is actually more helpful to have GPS for car navigation in the most populated areas than it is in the least, the reason being that there are so many more roads, which means so many more turns. To get from my store in Manhattan to my home just outside the city - a distance of approximately 14 miles - requires something like 45 different maneuvers and the use of about that many different roads.

Now, the REAL killer app for Google Navigation, which will be apparent to all eventually if it isn't now, is free cloud-provided live traffic. Most current GPS devices that provide traffic info (and remember, they all force you to pay for it in some way) do it the old fashioned way, usually by subscribing to a service that's taking call-in reports from local police or utilities, or even individual commuters. This info is always old and often wrong. Google Maps' traffic is live, taken from the cloud. Right now, my wife and I have gotten into the habit of having our GPS hooked up and having one of our phones out with Google Maps loaded up to check traffic on our route. (Remember, this is New York.) And it's always right, but there's currently no easy way for us to do anything about it when our GPS device guides us into a "red" traffic area. (We can press the "detour" button, but that doesn't really guide us around traffic, just a pre-set distance.)

It's going to be amazing having free live traffic data integrated into Google Navigation. The only thing I haven't seen is whether there's a way to tell the app to "avoid traffic" when constructing a route, or to "detour around traffic" if traffic develops along the way. But that should be pretty easy to add if they haven't already; just another little algorithm.

And that's the *other* great thing about this - free updates. I had to pay $80 for map and interface upgrades to my Magellan Roadmate 2200T, and while it was worth it, they only ever produced that one update and I sure would have liked it to be free. Especially considering that the update itself has its own problems, which I have now just had to live with - for example, it now messes up the side of the street destinations are on about half the time. No way to fix this except to buy a new device with new software on it. It also constantly drives me into a dead end when I go to my mother's house - the map is out of date. Again, no more updates are coming - gotta buy a new device. Waste of money.

Re:No

[LBt1st]

Maybe, just maybe tomtom etc won't be selling as much hardware. But they currently and I'm sure will continue making software for various devices. I use TomTom on a PDA. It sits on an SD Card with the entire US map data. As someone else replied, TomTom can also be installed on cell phones and other things.
I assure you, when I'm riding my motorcycle in the middle of the desert (not unusual for me); I won't have any use for a cell based solution or an in-dash car device.

People like me will keep that market alive. As will our boys overseas, pilots, sailors etc..

Besides the whole "GPS will be in every car" idea is just plan bunk. Especially in the current economy. Cars are still made without power windows. GPS is a nice option for someone that wants it. Many people do not want that option and will not pay extra for it. Car manufactures are not going to install GPS in every car when they can barely sell cars at all. That is a fantasy based on nonsense.

Well, maybe one day...

[npcole]

...when there is good, reliable, 3g coverage or better everywhere, and when data charges (especially when roaming abroad) are negligible. But frankly, the places I most need GPS are where coverage is poor and roaming charges are high.

Re:Well, maybe one day...

[Beardo the Bearded]

The military uses GPS for targeting. It's not going away until a higher-resolution replacement is found.

The GPS consumer market is a great way for the manufacturers to ditch the receivers that don't pass military QC.

Also, like you say, the most important places to have GPS are places where there isn't cell coverage. They still sell satellite phones for a reason. Not everyone used GPS to get to the store.

Re:Well, maybe one day...

[joggle]

The military uses GPS for targeting. It's not going away until a higher-resolution replacement is found.

The GPS consumer market is a great way for the manufacturers to ditch the receivers that don't pass military QC.

Also, like you say, the most important places to have GPS are places where there isn't cell coverage. They still sell satellite phones for a reason. Not everyone used GPS to get to the store.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by manufacturers ditching receivers that don't pass military QC. Many GPS manufacturers don't make military-specific GPS receivers at all. The primary difference between a consumer and military receiver is the military receiver can decode the code on the encrypted frequency. However, with the corrections provided by WAAS and with selective availability turned off (as it has been for years now) this isn't that big of a deal if you are in North America.

Regardless, you are talking about two totally different markets. Consumer GPS receivers aren't at all nor ever were designed for military use and aren't being 'ditched'. In addition, consumer research is at times ahead of military research. For example, at a recent GPS expo various manufacturers demonstrated new receivers that could determine accurate positions indoors. Professional GPS receivers (but still not military, so no access to the encrypted code on the second frequency) can now be used to do drive-by surveys in combination with a system of lasers.

Needs internet connection

[sarahbau]

It sounds like the maps will still only be hosted by Google, rather than stored on the device as with standalone GPSs. As long as that's the case, there will probably still be standalone units.

Computer

[conureman]

I don't want to talk to a computer unless it has Majel Roddenberry's voice.

Re:Computer

[e2d2]

(picking up mouse and talking into it) "Computer?"

Oh, a keyboard. How quaint.

Not yet

[Thyamine]

I didn't read the article, of course, but right away my first thought is trying to use the GPS and be on the phone at the same time would be a problem in an all-in-one style device. Of course you shouldn't be on the phone (technically, perhaps), but we do it anyways. At least I do. I won't speak for the rest of you since I know at least one person will say that of course they never do and I'm evil for doing it. But I know I've used my GPS and phone at the same time in general, let alone finding some difficult place that isn't fully locatable in GPS. Back roads, unlisted roads, mismatched turns, etc.

No.

[0100010001010011]

1) It doesn't work EVERYWHERE. I'm not talking about everywhere with a wireless signal. I'm talking about EVERYWHERE.
2) I'm not going to pay a monthly fee to use something. I paid Microsoft $X for Streets & Trips. It's one of the rare programs that I will spend the time to virtualize. It's gotten me east coast to west coast with only 1 problem, and that was user error (Grand Canyon Park is NOT the same as "Grand Canyon", the geographic center. Though it was an interesting drive into nothing).
3) AT&T is choking hard with a ton of people browsing the web. Imagine if everyone on the road suddenly was streaming a few K/s. It would bring the network to its knees. I somehow doubt that AT&T is going to pull through and upgrade.

Re:No.

[nmos]

1) It doesn't work EVERYWHERE. I'm not talking about everywhere with a wireless signal. I'm talking about EVERYWHERE.

I don't think that'll be a limitation for long. Some smart phones already have real GPS chips rather that just AGPS and there is no reason they couldn't store maps locally. I think the Droid already pre-caches maps along any route you select so it shouldn't be hard to extend that functionality a bit.

 

Re:No.

[ShakaUVM]

>>I'm not going to pay a monthly fee to use something.

It's free.

>>AT&T is choking hard with a ton of people browsing the web

It's Verizon.

(Which makes statement #1 so amazing to actually be true. They are firmly within the anal-violation school of retail pricing.)

Missing Factor...

[swanzilla]

Will Google and Android Kill Standalone GPS?

Will Google and Android and Verizon Kill Standalone GPS?

Will replace my Garmin when ...

[Lemming Mark]

I'll personally replace my outdoors-oriented Garmin when I can get a bicycle-mountable, rucksack-clippable, fully waterproof (i.e. submerge for a significant length of time, not just splashproof), robust and accurate GPS device. That doesn't cost more than I paid for the Garmin in the first place. And can run on AA batteries for long periods of time, so I can swap batteries when they run down.

In fact, I probably still won't replace my Garmin even if they match those features. If I'm trekking around outdoors with the thing, it's nice to know that losing or smashing it won't result in the loss of my phone, address book, PDA, MP3 and video player, camera ... I like the idea of having everything available in one device but for some applications it's nicer not to have all my eggs in one valuable (in monetary, information and functionality terms) device.

For stuff like car satnav devices I can see GPS-enabled phones making more of a dent, since the top of a car dashboard is a much friendlier environment for a phone. Moreover it's somewhere you'd probably want a phone anyhow, so you can use it handsfree, listen to music, etc. The really slick car satnav designs are integrated into the dash, though. Given we've already seen ipod docks built into cars, maybe in the future we're looking at a much more full-featured dock that'll connect the phone to audio, dash display, GPS antenna, etc. On the other hand, given computers are cheap and get cheaper, maybe that'll be unnecessary as the car will have bucketloads of integrated computers already.

Re:Will replace my Garmin when ...

[Dare nMc]

Not really about when are we going to throw away our Garmins. It's about garming charging for maps, road construction, safety camera info, updates. I was debating about paying the $150 for lifetime maps for my Nuvi. But it's locked to a single device, not editable in anyway and pricey (on top of the $180 single use device.) All thoughts of purchasing that are now gone for this phone. I will keep my garmin Vista (or replace with similar) for riding the quads/motorcycles/mountain bikes where there are no roads (sand dunes, changing trails.)
So knocking 15%+ off of garmin stock price seams correct, their overall growth in GPS is very unlikely (but lower volume/higher priced boating, fishing, offroad GPS growth is likely to stay.)

Not with current battery life and robustness

[Anonymous Coward]

Phones are relatively fragile, and their batteries are relatively feeble; by comparison my hiking GPS takes two easy-swapped AA's and gives 12-16 hours of use from them, and it takes all the abuse I can think to give it.

I wouldn't want to risk my phone-GPS running down my phone-phone: that's a safety fail just waiting to happen.

These arguments don't apply to driving GPS, where there's power available, or mooching-round-town GPS, where trips are short and safety non-critical. So smartphone GPS won't kill the dedicated device, but it'll reduce it back to a niche item for outdoorsy types.

Re:UH?

[TheLink]

If lots of people start using Google's free stuff, there'd be fewer people visiting: https://buy.garmin.com/shop/buymaps.do

And giving Garmin lots of $$$.

Garmin making an android device just shows that the Garmin bosses aren't in denial of what's going to happen to Garmin. It doesn't mean they have nothing to worry about.

Android GPS - works for US only

[ramunas]

Here's my problem with the android GPS, and for that matter with cell phone google maps - it all works perfectly when you live in a huge country, and where the possibility that you might need to use the navigation features offered by GPS without ever leaving the country is fairly large - hence you are not really worried about the data charges, since you are using the same operator.

BUT. If like me, you live in a small European country, where within the country there is practically no need for the GPS because you know most of the country by heart. Thus the only reason for using a car GPS navigation is when you leave the country. But that's exactly the moment the huge roaming data charges begin to apply. Therefore the only practically viable option unless you don't care how much you spend on your phone costs is by using an offline solution like a Tom-tom or Garmin device.

Re:Android GPS - works for US only

[slim]

If like me, you live in a small European country, where within the country there is practically no need for the GPS because you know most of the country by heart.

How small? Monaco?

There are two situations where I feel GPS is useful for driving:

  1. For the last few miles of your journey to an unfamiliar town. I can easily find my way from London to Manchester without GPS. Sat Nav is a big help finding my way to a specific street address once I'm there.

  2. For finding back-roads, when the route you know is blocked. There's really only one 'A' road leading from my parent's home in West Wales, to the Midlands. When a motorbike accident caused the police to close it for several hours, satnav was able to guide me over the hills on single-track unpaved roads, around the blockage.

I really can't think of a European country small enough that you could know it well enough to avoid these benefits.

Re:Android GPS - works for US only

[middlemen]

the London black cab drivers

Hey! It's African American dude!

May replace the base OS but not the devices.

[HockeyPuck]

Maybe Garmin/TomTom will replace their current OS with Android. However, I don't see any outdoorsman/athlete tossing their Garmin device for a GPS enabled cell phone. Why? Garmin devices are purpose built, they can be strapped to my wrist, my arm, they are waterproof, I can easily mount it to the handlebars of my mountain/road bike, they have heart rate monitors built in, I can attach a secondary transponder to my dogs when they are out herding so I know where they are.

I also love the fact that they can download maps from the National Geographic Topographic Map Series. Now there's nothing that would stop someone from writing a android app to interface with these maps. But currently google maps doesn't help me out on the trail.

Garmin is a brand and people buy their products for the features, nobody buys Garmin b/c of the underlying OS.

Not a chance

[schnikies79]

I go hiking/camping nearly every-other weekend during the summer and even some in winter. Cell signals are poor to non-existent (when they do exist, it's never 3g) and I might have not have access to a power source for a couple days up to a week.

Good luck with finding a cell-phone that can fit that bill.

Walmart, I mean Google Strikes Again!

[sumbry]

In the same way that Walmart comes into a town and destroys local businesses, Google can enter into an industry/sector and destroy most of the competition overnight by giving an application away for free. Who is going to pay $100 for a Maps Application now (or more for a hardware device) when they can just download one for free.

Isn't this the same type of stuff we accused Microsoft of doing years ago? Yup, Walmart, I mean Google strikes again. Pray whatever industry you're in Google doesn't decide to suddenly release a free product.

Re:Walmart, I mean Google Strikes Again!

[R2.0]

"In the same way that Walmart comes into a town and destroys local businesses, Google can enter into an industry/sector and destroy most of the competition overnight by giving an application away for free. Who is going to pay $100 for a Maps Application now (or more for a hardware device) when they can just download one for free.

Isn't this the same type of stuff we accused Microsoft of doing years ago? Yup, Walmart, I mean Google strikes again. Pray whatever industry you're in Google doesn't decide to suddenly release a free product."

Yeah, and then they jack up prices once the competition is gone!

Wait - they don't do that? They keep their prices low? Well, wtf?

There are plenty of reasons to dislike Walmart, but the "destroy competition" is the weakest one. The reason that is generally viewed as bad is that it has historically led to price increases, but that hasn't yet happened with Walmart. Same as Google.

The difference between them and MS is that, once MS had wiped out Netscape, it could divert resources away from browser development, and left us with IE6 for years. The consumer did not benefit. One might argue that the Wal-Mart/Google model is bad on a macroeconomic scale, but certainly not at the consumer level.

Re:UH?

[ToasterMonkey]

uh huh.. like Apple has any interest in nautical or aviation GPS hardware, or any of the other dozens of things Garmin does besides tell you how to get to the nearest McDonalds.

Not the end, but the writing is on the wall

[drumcat]

No one is saying GPS units are obsolete. What this does say is that there will be a lot less margin in devices that are now one-trick ponies.

Another reason I doubt this will happen

[sean.peters]

Others have commented on issues like lack of ruggedization and local caching of maps (at least for some device/software combinations), and display size and mountability to stuff like mountain bikes. Another reason why dedicated GPS devices probably aren't going away any time soon: quality of the GPS receiver itself. The GPS receiver built into the iPhone, at least, is sort of weak sauce. While it works well enough in a car, if you get any kind of overhead obstruction at all (even a few tree branches, for example), the signal quickly drops to essentially nothing. This is why TomTom felt the need to offer an external GPS receiver as part of their iPhone car kit.

Don't get me wrong, I really like the GPS built into my iPhone, and frequently find it useful... but it's far from a complete replacement for a standalone device.

Sharing?

[edmicman]

My wife can take our Garmin in her car if she needs it or I could let a friend borrow it; I'm not going to lend my phone to someone to use as a GPS. Sure, I'll find it useful to have a working GPS on my phone, for like most things (camera, gps) I'm gonna go with the dedicated device for when I really need quality.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:No. You're stupid for thinking this.

[killmenow]

Continuing...

Will standalone GPS units kill the map/atlas printing business?
Will computers kill the pencil+paper industry?
Will cars kill the bicycle industry?
Will the internet kill the shopping mall industry?

etc.

Garmin Routing is Crap, Googles is Great

[rolfwind]

I utterly and completely agree with you - particularly in rural areas, GPS needing 3G or Edge connection isn't going to cut it.

But, this will impact sales. I don't know about TomTom, but my experience with Garmin is that it's routing is shit. I have several units and there are a ton of spots where it will consistently take you via a route that takes much longer, it wants to exit from the fast highway usually one exit too early in order to go the roads beridden with stop signs and lights, and in some cases, it would take nonsensical detours from an otherwise straight road as if Garmin wanted you in a sight-seeing tour of the countryside, doubling not only time of a short trip, but the distance. Garmin has some seriously fucked up routing that even a non-native with just a map would ever pick, and I ran into this in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Washington State, and even in Europe. It's not a localized issue. I love my Garmins in areas I don't know, but that is about it.

OTOH, Google Maps has some of the best routing I have seen, consistently, and in my native areas which I know well, it takes the routes I usually would as well. So, with the limitations in mind, it's perfect for urban/suburban dwellers. I only wish Google would make a standale GPS unit with no internet connection required and cheap updates - I would snap it up in a heartbeat.

I have 7 stand-alone GPS devices....

[SwedishChef]

I have, if I can remember correctly, seven separate GPS units including two in each car (Magellan), two handheld units that are waterproof for sea kayaking (both Garmin but one has all the US marine charts and both do tracking), one stand-alone Garmin for our 1974 Carver 25-foot cabin cruiser that can take inputs from depth sounder and radar plus contains maps and charts for the entire west coast of North America (Garmin), one aviation-oriented Garmin that contains aviation charts and interfaces with my glider's computer, and one Magellan hand-held that my business used when we did a wireless ISP.

Even though my iPhone has a very inexpensive GPS application for marine charts (with downloadable maps), and even though I often take it (in a water-tight enclosure) with me sea kayaking, it's not likely to replace the hand held waterproof Garmins because they have specialized features (trip counters, currents, etc) that are easier to access and screens made for use in bright sunlight.

Similarly, the GPS units made specifically for aviation and marine use are not likely to be replaced by a combination cell phone/GPS. You need more than turn-by-turn instructions when flying from thermal to thermal in a glider, for instance.

And although many late model cars come with built-in GPS systems these are expensive to upgrade and do not allow any changes while the car is moving (even by the passenger). Their screens can be fabulous but the annoyance of having to pull over and stop if something changes has made several of my friends go buy a Nuvi just so they can get the functionality they want. So all their built-in units do is track and display speed, direction, etc. The turn-by-turn is left up to the stand-alone unit mounted on the windshield.

The biggest hurdle to mass use of cell phone GPS devices is likely to be the simple fact that 3G coverage is going to be spotty for a long time to come. Rural Oregon, Idaho, Nevada or Montana is not likely to have either wifi or 3G except along the main Interstate highways or in larger cities. And the same will hold true for many other states. Combine this with the handicap of the cell phone screen which is often too small to be seen when mounted 2 or 3 feet away on the dashboard or windshield and you will have people buying stand-alone GPS systems for a long time to come.

But the market for the stand-alone units is likely to shrink. Pedestrians or byclists who stay in town would take their cell phone anyway and having it track their rides or walks would make them unlikely to buy one of the Garmin wrist-mounted units. And if I traveled to a large city on business I'd take my iPhone but probably not a GPS unit; the iPhone could do whatever I needed it to do with the likelihood of 3G coverage.

Fine when you're near civilisation I suppose

[FridgeFreezer]

But we go to places where there is no signal. Not just no cell signal, but no TV or FM radio, nothing. In the woods, in RF-unfriendly geographies, even SiRF-III GPS can struggle to get a lock. Also - what about planes & boats? No GSM base stations at sea, well, not without a dedicated satellite uplink. What about military apps where a mobile phone could easily be detected & targetted by the enemy?

Uh, I don't think so

[DigitalSorceress]

I seriously doubt that stand alone gps can truly ever be replaced... not for gps apps/solutions that rely on connectivity.

Perfect example: I recently finished a 6,000 mile road trip across Canada and back. Both my traveling companion and I had iPhones. We both turned off all data for the entire time we were in Canada... if we hadn't we'd have gotten multi-thousand dollar bills from Rogers Internet for data roaming. Think I'm kidding? last Canada road trip, my traveling companion didn't turn hers off. Got a call from AT&T halfway into the trip asking if she meant to be racking up $2000 in data roaming. Took us a couple days to get the pucker marks out of the passenger seat.

(okay, I kid about the pucker marks, but not about the bill or the call from AT&T).

Google Maps is great, but it relies on an active data connection... something you don't always have available whether due to low signal or STUPID high prices.

Stand-alone units don't have this problem.

I'm a cheapskate

[ackthpt]

I'm on my 4th mobile phone, since the 1980's. Mostly because of gaps here and there, because plans were expensive and I didn't really need a mobile too much.

Now I'm on Pre-Paid and love it. Per month cost is 5 to 10 bucks, which leaves a _lot_ of money for things like buying a GPSr which will work more reliably in most places my mobile phone can't even score 1 bar (like much of Uvas Road, near Morgan Hill, California, where I witnessed an accident, but couldn't make a mobile phone call - nobody could! This, not far outside Silicon Valley!)

For commuters in Chicago, Lost Angeles, New Yawk, Bahston, Houston, Atalanta, etc. I expect their mobile to do a fine job for them, but in the crags, hollers and gulches they will likely find themselves utterly lost ("Why does the arrow say I'm 500 ft off the road?" - because it's guessing, based upon rate of speed and direction, which doesn't work is mazes of twisty little passages - all alike.)

I'll stick with a mobile for mobile stuff and a GPSr for GPSr stuff.

Street View will be killer

[whoop]

Being able to show a Street View picture of where you are going to turn will be killer for a major portion of the public, women. I lost count of how many times I've tried to give the wife directions and receive that blank stare back. Even getting her a GPS hasn't built any confidence in her ability to move around a small area. She knows her set of stores she goes to and that is it. Show her to turn at the McDonald's and such and she could be better able to navigate.

Lord, I hope so.

Some of still drive and talk

[AmericanInKiev]

The most Annoying flaw in my cellphone GPS, (with which I've driven across the country) Is when I'm late to an appointment, I need to phone ahead, but can't because I'd lose navigation.

That said, real time traffic, and weather related road outages, along with reactive routing are necessary features for a congested metropolis.

The unconnected GPS is dead.