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UN To Create Independent Panel To Review IPCC

Hugh Pickens writes "The NY Times reports that an independent board of scientists will be appointed to review the workings of the world's top climate science panel, which has faced recriminations over inaccuracies in a 2007 report that included a prediction that Himalayan glaciers would vanish by 2035, although there is no scientific consensus to that effect. That brief citation — drawn from a magazine interview with a glaciologist who says he was misquoted — and sporadic criticism of the panel's leader have fueled skepticism in some quarters about the science underlying climate change. Nick Nuttall, a spokesman for the United Nations Environment Program, said the review body would be made up of 'senior scientific figures' who could perhaps produce a report by late summer for consideration at a meeting of the climate panel in October in South Korea. 'I think we are bringing some level of closure to this issue,' says Nuttall. One area to be examined is whether the panel should incorporate so-called gray literature, a term to describe nonpeer-reviewed science, in its reports. Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals, is crucial to seeking a complete picture of the state of climate science."

342 comments

  1. Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Nothing could be sillier than some fake UN panel investigating itself.

    Whatever anyone thinks of AGW or GW or CC or anything else, this has to be seen for the nonsense that it is.

    There are no "independent" climate scientists and haven't been for decades, if ever.

    1. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There are no "independent" climate scientists and haven't been for decades, if ever.

      That's a pretty bold claim. Do you also think it is the same with sciences? Are there no independant botanists either? Are they all involved with some big conspiracy to hide the fact that all the leaders of the world are actually vegetables?

      Hmm, maybe not. I does sound a tad silly. Perhaps the conspiracy just involves those scientists who claim something that you don't want to believe.

    2. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There are no "independent" climate scientists and haven't been for decades, if ever.

      That's a pretty bold claim. Do you also think it is the same with sciences? Are there no independant botanists either? Are they all involved with some big conspiracy to hide the fact that all the leaders of the world are actually vegetables?

      Hmm, maybe not. I does sound a tad silly. Perhaps the conspiracy just involves those scientists who claim something that you don't want to believe.

      There actually are independent scientists, and as the CRU emails show, they have been disparaged and shut up at every possible point.

    3. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by LockeOnLogic · · Score: 5, Funny

      Why don't you open your eyes? Botanists have been conspiring for decades to push a pro-plant agenda. The "nutritional value" and "oxygen" they talk about is nothing but a front of bad data. All so plants can spread across this globe, making botanists rich and powerful. They don't care that the cost of doing business will skyrocket due to increasing landscaping costs. So long as they get their juicy tomato grants they will continue to lie for grant money.

    4. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      In other news, Fox to launch investigation into Hen-House raid.

    5. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by jadavis · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Do you also think it is the same with sciences?

      In other scientific fields, the problem is not nearly as severe because:
      (a) There is not such a huge difference in the amount of money scientists receive for one result versus the opposite result; or
      (b) The field is not as politically charged; or
      (c) The ultimate accuracy of a theory is seen more decisively in a shorter period of time.

      Even with other money-charged scientific fields, like medicine, the results ultimately play out in clinical trials and then general availability. The truth will reveal itself relatively soon, serious investigations will follow any serious problem, and the consequences to anyone who violates the rules are severe.

      However, with climate scientists, just like with economists, they can always claim their theories are correct throughout their entire lifetimes regardless of the outcomes. They just say that some "other, unforeseen factor" changed the outcome without contradicting their theory. And serious investigations are much less likely -- note that "ClimateGate" was the result of hacking rather than systematic review or investigation.

      None of this means that the climate isn't changing. But it does mean that we will have a major problem getting accurate information, making useful predictions, and crafting effective policy regarding climate change (that is, if policy is the correct approach at all).

      --
      Social scientists are inspired by theories; scientists are humbled by facts.
    6. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Jah-Wren+Ryel · · Score: 3, Informative

      There actually are independent scientists, and as the CRU emails show, they have been disparaged and shut up at every possible point.

      Really? Disparaged maybe, but the papers the CRU emails were talking about trying to "shut up" were published anyway.

      --
      When information is power, privacy is freedom.
    7. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Bemopolis · · Score: 4, Funny

      That's just what Big Plankton wants you to think. You bought the lie!

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    8. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by crmarvin42 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Mod this guy up.

      There will always be problems with "indepenence" of scientific research when the main (only) funding agency is a political body and an incredibly long validation period. If you don't produce the results the political body wants, they'll cut funding. If they are the only funding source, your options are being broke but honest, or putting at least a little spin on your results to keep getting funded at some level.

      My research has been pressured by funding agencies, but since the main funding source is industry I can always find funding from a competitor (it helps that there are several) to continue my work if the original funding agency doesn't like what my data indicates.

      --
      Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.-Oscar Wilde
    9. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by AmberBlackCat · · Score: 0, Troll

      Why do we care about this? What is the consequence if somebody thinks the earth is getting warmer or cooler?

    10. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by 10101001+10101001 · · Score: 1

      Are there no independant botanists either? Are they all involved with some big conspiracy to hide the fact that all the leaders of the world are actually vegetables?

      The real question is, are there no independent meteorologists? It's funny, actually. As much as there are those who point at how bad weather forecasting is and use it is a proof of our feeble understanding of the weather, there's very few people who would ignore a "weather winter advisory". Perhaps because the threat is life or death? Perhaps because an ounce of prevent is worth a pound of cure? It's funny how that mindset is ignored when it comes to the climate. But, then, I guess it's the point that group, long-term change is resisted more than independent, short-term change. If anything, the grand conspiracy would seem to be with the general populace, not the scientists.

      --
      Eurohacker European paranoia, gun rights, and h
    11. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by BrokenHalo · · Score: 1

      That's just what Big Plankton wants you to think.

      Only Big Phytoplankton. Zooplankton have enough trouble keeping a skeleton together as a result of the acidification of the oceans...

    12. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by UltraAyla · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There actually are independent scientists, and as the CRU emails show, they have been disparaged and shut up at every possible point.

      Yes, because as we all know, a single case study always generalizes to the whole. I think it's ridiculous that people who are criticizing science are being so unscientific themselves.

      As someone who has worked a great deal on climate change issues, I want to respect skepticism in the scientific process because it *usually* is very healthy. In this case though, so much of the skepticism is fueled by political bias that I believe it's become, for the most part, unhealthy for the science. That said, I understand your criticism of the CRU emails. It made me mad too, but it has been blown out of proportion. If you look at the IPCC reports, many of the studies the CRU scientists were criticizing were actually included. These guys had some power in the discourse, but not as much as people attribute to them.

    13. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by BrokenHalo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why do we care about this? What is the consequence if somebody thinks the earth is getting warmer or cooler?

      Why should we do your homework for you? Go and look it up for yourself, or hand in your nerd card. You'll find it's more complicated than "the earth is getting warmer or cooler".

    14. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      In other scientific fields, the problem is not nearly as severe because:
      (a) There is not such a huge difference in the amount of money scientists receive for one result versus the opposite result

      Where is your proof of this. I have never seen one single shred of evidence for this outlandish claim.

      (b) The field is not as politically charged

      What difference does that make? How is the science more correct in another field because fewer people have alternative reasons to disagree with it? And this wasn't always a political debate. President George Bush Snr publicly stated that the world needed to act to prevent the problems of global warming. Up until the mid 90s this had bipartisan support.

      The ultimate accuracy of a theory is seen more decisively in a shorter period of time

      The predictions that we would experience warming due to CO2 dates back to the 30s. Guess what? Their predictions have proven correct.

    15. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 1

      Perhaps because an ounce of prevent is worth a pound of cure? It's funny how that mindset is ignored when it comes to the climate.

      The problem with AGW is that we are being asked to choose between a half-ton of prevention and a pound of cure. And the half-ton has practically zero chance of working.

    16. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      some big conspiracy to hide the fact that all the leaders of the world are actually vegetables?

      I wasn't aware that it was a secret.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    17. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by IICV · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Yeah you know why they were disparaged? Because their paper was crap. The journal only published the paper because it was controversial; the actual science contained therein was useless.

      Yes, the guys at the CRU were trying to keep that paper from being published because it went against the current scientific consensus - but the reason why it went against the current consensus is because the authors were wrong in the first place. The journal chose to publish a controversial and scientifically flawed paper, just because it was controversial.

    18. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by moderatorrater · · Score: 1

      How many botanists have been unable to get funding because they didn't support a controversial theory?

    19. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In other news, Fox News to launch investigation into Hen-House raid.

      Fixed it for you.

    20. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 4, Interesting

      (a) There is not such a huge difference in the amount of money scientists receive for one result versus the opposite result; or
      (b) The field is not as politically charged; or
      (c) The ultimate accuracy of a theory is seen more decisively in a shorter period of time.

      (a) is a pretty bold claim. Got any evidence, any what-so-ever, showing that climate scientists who don't argue for climate change aren't getting funding? That they're systematically being denied grants?

      (b) is nonsense, there are many politically charged fields in science. Evolutionary biology? Vaccine research lately (thanks to people like Jenny "Oops, it wasn't autism" McCarthy)?

      (c) is always just silly. Quite a lot of science isn't decided on short timescales. Decades is more of than not how long you have to wait to find out how accurate a theory really is. (That's how long it takes for better tests to get developed.) Even medical testing often takes years to decades to pan out. That's why we don't really know what makes for a healthier diet (butter or margarine? how much salt is OK? does wine really help with cholesterol?)

      However, with climate scientists, just like with economists, they can always claim their theories are correct throughout their entire lifetimes regardless of the outcomes.

      Again, that's the norm for most areas of science. Most of us go a lifetime without seeing most of our work being shown to be wrong, even when it turns out to be way off. (Weak evidence often exists, but the really decisive evidence generally takes decades to emerge. The old joke about science is that new theories aren't so much accepted as the old theories' adherents just die off. That's because science, unlike the simple model you're taught in school, seldom moves forward from single, definitive experiments.

      note that "ClimateGate" was the result of hacking rather than systematic review or investigation.

      In as much as there was nothing in those emails that was incriminating, all of the innuendo and out of context quoting by FOX and others not withstanding, it's difficult to see what your point is.

      Climate research isn't really any different from any other area of science, except that there's a lot of money being thrown against it by various lobbying groups who don't like where it's pointing. (Which makes it a lot more like evolutionary biology than anything.)

    21. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 2

      In this case though, so much of the skepticism is fueled by political bias that I believe it's become, for the most part, unhealthy for the science.

      Read the CRU papers, please. There was political bias on both sides.

    22. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by 10101001+10101001 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The problem with AGW is that we are being asked to choose between a half-ton of prevention and a pound of cure.

      Last I checked, the damage that will result from just sea level rise is a lot more than "a pound" compare to a half-ton of prevention.

      And the half-ton has practically zero chance of working.

      For this, you might well be right. We very well might be too late for anything but CO2 sequestering to actually work. Even if not to late already, it's unlikely that the US, China, etc will agree in time. The best chance we might have is to limit the damage, and to that, yes, the ratio might be closer to a half-ton of "prevention" to a pound of cure.

      In the end, the real issue is the energy crisis of having so many countries competing for so much oil. Pragmatically dealing with might be a better reason to act now. But, given how long the US and China have waited to even consider real action over the climate, I doubt they'll preemptively do much in that arena either.

      --
      Eurohacker European paranoia, gun rights, and h
    23. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      How many botanists have been unable to get funding because they didn't support a controversial theory?

      I don't know, how many climate scientists have been unable to get funding because they didn't support a controversial theory? Do you know of any, or are you just engaging in a bit of FUD?

    24. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1, Informative

      There will always be problems with "indepenence" of scientific research when the main (only) funding agency is a political body and an incredibly long validation period.

      The funding for climate research comes through many governments across the globe. Even in the US, it has come through several agencies (including the DoD!) and during times with the administrations in power have been decidedly anti-climate change research. The scientists have even been harassed and had their reports meddled with by functionaries who didn't like their research. They kept at it and kept saying the same thing.

      In short, your claims are flatly false.

    25. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by AmberBlackCat · · Score: 0

      That's the thing. I don't have any reason to look it up, and perhaps many more people see no reason to look it up. It seems like it's just a bunch of guys arguing over an academic issue. And the people who seem to think it matters won't even say why.

    26. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by graft · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Are you serious? Maybe you should ask some Australians; they've had a drought for fifteen years. Maybe you should ask some Indians; if the Himalayan glaciers DO disappear, the water source for their major river system, responsible for a huge part of their agriculture, will dry up with it. Maybe you should ask some South Americans, who face the same issue with glacial melt. Maybe you should read about the effect increasing ocean acidification has on coral bleaching, and the resulting devastation to all sorts of marine wildlife.

      Or maybe you should display zero intellectual curiosity and write this off as "a bunch of guys arguing".

    27. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by neoform · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Climate research isn't really any different from any other area of science, except that there's a lot of money being thrown against it by various lobbying groups who don't like where it's pointing.

      You mentioned about baseless claims... yet you just made one. What lobbying groups are fighting the IPCC report? All I ever see and hear in the media (with exception to Fox 'News') is that climate change is man made, end of story, no room for questions, the end, it's done.

      I hate that kind of crap, can anyone here think of a single other scientific theory that is so adamantly fought for by a group of people?

      There is NOTHING wrong with skepticism and questioning; if the science is good, it will hold up.

      --
      MABASPLOOM!
    28. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That doesn't change the fact that the attempts to do this shutting up were made.

      That is the major sin in both the video linked above, and with the CRU.

      Both attempted to manipulate science by disguising politics as scientific debate.

      The inverse scenario, attempting to disguise scientific debate as politics, is equally sinful.

      Both tactics require the arguer to distort the truth, with a specific goal in mind, based on an ideological position. Such arguments, having abandoned truth, are meaningless, and serve ONLY to harm.

      That is why I condemn the CRU-- Not because I am some denialist Lassaize Faire capitalist whackjob; but because I fail to see any logical reason to support the tactics that was revealed to have been in use.

      The truth is the only thing that will set you free.

      Any argument that sacrifices Truth for Cause, is not an argument I am willing to support.

      Challenge is fundamental to science; without challenge, the geocentric universe model would still be taught in school, There would be no such thing as neuroscience, since the heart would be respected as the seat of consciousness, and mankind would still be struggling with the superstitious causes of illness.

      Challenge is GOOD and HEALTHY for science. If the CRU could not withstand a healthy challenge, and had to resort to underhanded bully tactics to silence criticism, then their science has already admitted to being flawed.

      The same is true for any source of argument that employs such a tactic.

      The attempt to politicize the very presence of a challenge, rather than focusing on the merits and flaws of said challenge, is at the very heart of this matter.

      "Getting tired" of hearing an argument is NOT a justifiable reason for what the CRU talked about doing in their private emails. I am certain that the catholic church grew "Very tired" indeed of listening to Copernicus.

      Rather than trying to bully publishers, they should have engaged in the peer review process, and raised valid criticism of the challenging claims presented by their detractors. That is the established, and respected protocol.

      The CRU did not do this. That is why I condemn their action.

    29. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The oil industry has been found to be funding at least one of the more prominent skeptical scientists, for a start. And even just yesterday, All Things Considered reported a story about how an industry lobbying group for the power industry is lobbying against the EPA's plan to regulate greenhouse gases, claiming that they're not a pollutant as the EPA claims.

      We've also seen, in recent years, that the tobacco industry was helping lobby against climate change findings. (The logic being spreading doubt over one kind of science taints it all, apparently.) Link: http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/09/19/1819257

      So while I applaud your skepticism on such things, in this case, the data are there.

      All I ever see and hear in the media (with exception to Fox 'News') is that climate change is man made, end of story, no room for questions, the end, it's done.

      Which ignores the fact that the media widely has carried the counter-claims and stories about the leaked emails and other would-be scandals. One never really does feel that the media gives one's own side a fair shake, do they?

      I hate that kind of crap, can anyone here think of a single other scientific theory that is so adamantly fought for by a group of people?

      Evolution springs to mind. (I seem to recall at least one person being put on trial for teaching it, don't you?) Which is, as I said, similar in that it is also fought against viciously by another group. Which is why you get the strong support: the science community, under assault, are simply pushing back. And apparently, they're wrong to do so. What would you have them do, when their work and their very honesty is attacked?

    30. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "There is not such a huge difference in the amount of money scientists receive for one result versus the opposite result"

      Some people have very strange ideas of what constitutes a get rich quick scheme. The IPCC has less than 10 paid staff and operates on a budget of $5-6M/yr sourced from a large number of politically diverse nations. Virtually all of that money is spent on airfares and conference facilities. No scientist has ever recieved a dime for the tedious review work they do putting the repots together.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    31. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by moderatorrater · · Score: 1

      William Gray thinks it's likely that he lost his funding because of it. Harrison Schmitt says that people have lost their funding because of it and it's causing people to stop being willing to oppose it.

    32. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Yeah right, all the funding for climate science comes directly from the Al Gore foundation for world domination. This foundation has single handedly managed to corrupt every credible scientific institution on the planet and has hacked into all Earth facing sattelites so that they spew data that suits their evil plans. - For the love of science, GROW UP!

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    33. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      That doesn't change the fact that the attempts to do this shutting up were made.

      Evidence, please.

      Both attempted to manipulate science by disguising politics as scientific debate.

      No, they were performing peer review, and decided to reject poor research because the research was poor.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    34. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Jah-Wren+Ryel · · Score: 1

      Any argument that sacrifices Truth for Cause, is not an argument I am willing to support.

      Funny, you seem to be doing precisely that.

      The truth here is that people are only human. They get emotionally invested in their work, that's the way people are.
      To expect real people to behave like emotionless automata is to hold them to a standard higher than you or anyone else can achieve.

      What you have done is take a fairly small series of events and extrapolated them far beyond their import. That's not seeking truth, that's just posturing.

      --
      When information is power, privacy is freedom.
    35. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "as the CRU emails show, they have been disparaged and shut up at every possible point."

      Bullshit, what the emails show is private scientific discorse and frustration at a well funded campaign to politically discredit and obfuscate their work. Do you not find it curious that only one or two emails over a ten year period can be twisted to suit your claim?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    36. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Haha. Actually after posting that did occur to me ;).

    37. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by gox · · Score: 1

      (a) There is not such a huge difference in the amount of money scientists receive for one result versus the opposite result; or
      (b) The field is not as politically charged; or
      (c) The ultimate accuracy of a theory is seen more decisively in a shorter period of time.

      (c) is always just silly. Quite a lot of science isn't decided on short timescales. Decades is more of than not how long you have to wait to find out how accurate a theory really is. (That's how long it takes for better tests to get developed.) Even medical testing often takes years to decades to pan out. That's why we don't really know what makes for a healthier diet (butter or margarine? how much salt is OK? does wine really help with cholesterol?)

      Sure, but isn't it exactly why we take unverified theories with a grain of salt? But in this case, which I'm sure is not unique among all science, there is a risk in waiting. Hence, a more philosophical and interdisciplinary debate ensues. In such a case, asserting that the science is settled is only an appeal to authority (since the theory will not be verified to a reasonable extent within the time to debate) and is agitative.

      There is no easy way out for scientists and policy makers here and the ennui argument is making everything worse, IMHO. There isn't an easy way out for the evolutionary biologists either. :-) Even though its foundations are infinitely more elegant, older and much more concrete.

      There is also truth in (b). Although I agree that it's not unique to this problem, solutions presented pose a huge burden to the public. Conclusions of evolutionary biology don't require people to pay a huge sum in advance. I find it extremely normal when a person sees a stranded polar bear photo on an AGW information site and thinks it's all a scam. A picture says more than a thousand words. People don't like to be fooled into believing something they don't understand.

    38. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      I think you nailed the only real difference with this particular bit of science: the policy side. (Which is, in my experience, separate from the science. The science is damn solid. What to do about it is a much more complex issue than climate modeling and at some level requires some input from our sense of ethics.)

      One quibble: I'm not sure I believe

      People don't like to be fooled into believing something they don't understand.

      People believe all kinds of things they don't understand, often erroneously. How many people wear magnetic bracelets or take homeopathic cures?

      I think I do believe that people don't like to believe things they don't want to accept. (That they have to change their lifestyles for health or climate reasons, for example.) That's made a lot worse when they don't understand the science behind the necessity, which is I think where you're coming from, yes?

    39. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Just+Jim · · Score: 1

      "The predictions that we would experience warming due to CO2 dates back to the 30s. Guess what? Their predictions have proven correct."

      Back to the '30s?

      Arrhenius made the prediction in 1896.

      Svante Arrhenius, 1896b, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground,

      The only difference is that based on the rate we were burning fossil fuel then, he thought it would take 3000 years to double the atmospheric CO2. Current estimates are one century.

    40. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by AmberBlackCat · · Score: 1

      I am serious. You said maybe I should ask some Indians or South Americans. Well my mistake was I asked Slashdot. I sincerely did not understand why it mattered, but it seemed important to some people on Slashdot. So I politely asked "why do we care about this?" and "what are the consequences?"

      Around here, you get modded troll for even trying to find out what the problem is.

      And the person who replied didn't tell me an answer. That person said something about me not doing my homework. On top of that, my question got modded "troll". My reply stated, I don't think that's a good way to get people to care or do something about the problem. If one felt it was important, it would probably be better to answer the question than reply like that, because that might cause people to not look further for an answer. And that got modded "overrated". I don't know which moderation they're going to pick for this message. Maybe Troll or Flamebait, since those haven't been used yet. But seriously, if this is a big deal, modding away any question about it is not the way to spread the message.

    41. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      (b) The field is not as politically charged

      What difference does that make? How is the science more correct in another field because fewer people have alternative reasons to disagree with it?

      When you have statements like:

      "Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?" --Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environmental Program - Opening speech, Rio Earth Summit, 1992

      The predictions that we would experience warming due to CO2 dates back to the 30s. Guess what? Their predictions have proven correct.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFbUVBYIPlI

    42. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by gox · · Score: 1

      One quibble: I'm not sure I believe

      People don't like to be fooled into believing something they don't understand.

      People believe all kinds of things they don't understand, often erroneously. How many people wear magnetic bracelets or take homeopathic cures?

      I'd argue that people /choose/ to believe in homeopathy, they're buying a dream, which they might be desperately needing at the time. They know the deal, albeit not consciously maybe. The polar bear is bundled with a hidden deal, which they don't know much about. Since the bear (clumsy metaphor, sorry) is obviously fake, the deal is off the table automatically. I'm just trying to say that emotional manipulation that is being used is only self-convincing and might actually be harmful.

      I think I do believe that people don't like to believe things they don't want to accept. (That they have to change their lifestyles for health or climate reasons, for example.) That's made a lot worse when they don't understand the science behind the necessity, which is I think where you're coming from, yes?

      Partly yes. I mean, the details are probably irrelevant, but people need to be able to see clearly what they're getting in return. I'd speculate that, in the evolution debate, religious people understand that the theory is plausible, but still don't want to surrender their existential capital; however that's not necessarily true for the climate debate. I'm sure some people still wouldn't give up their lifestyles even if they knew the world's gonna end, but we're not at that point yet.

      I guess I really believe that masses are very good at deciding what's good for them on average. There could of course be exceptions that prove the rule. ;-)

    43. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Got plenty of evidence myself, friend of mine changed his research from being a completely independent study to one specifically aimed at proving global warming (he could not afford to be independent). He went from impossible to get a grant to funding coming out of his butthole in under a month.

    44. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interesting that you would support such a position; (I am the same AC as above.) You are implying that people are ruled by their emotions, and not their minds.

      While I will admit that there are ultimately people out there who for whatever reason choose NOT to control their emotions, and act logically, that is not a case for such behavior being acceptable either.

      take for instance, the creationist whackjobs; They *FEEL* very strongly about a topic, and no amount of data will change their minds. This behavior is demonstrably destructive, and accomplishes no rational goal, other than to subvert change, and maintain a more favorable status quo for the person who engages in it.

      In some respects, this is no different from the catholic inquisitors burning people as heretics that they knew damn well were fully innocent. Cardinal Richelu's statement of "Give me five lines written by the most honest man alive, and I will find something to hang him with." springs immediately to mind.

      What YOUR argument fails to take into account, is that these people are SUPPOSED to be SCIENTISTS. The Scientist disregards personal bias as one of the founding tenets of scientific pursuit.

      The method is simple:
      Observe
      Hypothesize
      Test
      Collect data
      Repeat.

      At no point is there "Philosophical prognostication", nor is there "Refute data and observation because of prior belief, or personal prejudice."

      I hold these people to this high standard, because they themselves accepted the mantle of that standard when they became scientists.

      People that refuse to put harsh, unfiltered objectivity before their personal views on a subject have absolutely no business being scientists. This is because people with personal biases distort and spin their observations to support a pre-existing ideal, rather than accept the data at face value, in an attempt to justify their own beliefs. This is how things like observations of atmospheric pressure were disregarded for centuries before the enlightenment took hold in europe, and Evangelista Torricelli demonstrated how air has weight.

      It's also why apologist creationistic drivel is being taught in schools, and a host of other "Socially induced" problems obstructing the evolution of human understanding.

      Take a look at the people behind supporting big tobacco in the 70s. They did what they did out of a belief in lassaize Faire capitolism, and to fight against what they viewed as creeping communism (no Joke!) in the form of government intervention in private enterprise through regulation.

      That is what embracing personal bias while claiming to be driven by the scientific method buys humanity. It is NOT something to be tolerated, let alone embraced, as your tone seems to suggest.

    45. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by BrokenHalo · · Score: 1

      Around here, you get modded troll for even trying to find out what the problem is.

      A confusion of cause and effect here...

      I'm the one who replied somewhat tersely to your post (sorry about that), but I had nothing to do with your being moderated as troll. Remember, I can't mod and post in the same discussion. Believe it or not, I actually had a reason why I said to look it up rather than give you my own potted version, and that is this: by doing so, you are likely to end up better informed than you would be by an interminable flamewar, which is a typical response on Slashdot to the issues or reality of climate change.

    46. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Jah-Wren+Ryel · · Score: 1

      Interesting that you would support such a position; (I am the same AC as above.) You are implying that people are ruled by their emotions, and not their minds.

      I had to work hard to hold back from adding an extra sentence to the effect of - "now watch you exaggerate my point and pretend that I said that what were minor events were really overriding cases." I did not write that because I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt, that you really were skeptical and would understand that when I said "a fairly small series of events" I really did mean small.

      But alas, I gave you far too much credit. You appear to be so emotionally invested in this belief that a minor display of humanity overrides a staggering amount of methodical research that you must reshape any counterpoint to fit that belief. You really do demonstrate exactly what you rail against.

      --
      When information is power, privacy is freedom.
    47. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In many fields of science, one result will mean no phase 2 funding, while result 1 means another 3 years of funding.

      Interpreting climate data is not a case of insert data, output predictions. There is a lot more to it that is subject to interpretation, and judging from some of your other posts, you know that. So i think you need to do the growing up.

    48. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, they were performing "peer review", and decided to reject valid and supported conclusions because they didn't like the message, nor the messengers.

      FTFY.

    49. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by neoform · · Score: 1

      Evolution springs to mind. (I seem to recall at least one person being put on trial for teaching it, don't you?) Which is, as I said, similar in that it is also fought against viciously by another group. Which is why you get the strong support: the science community, under assault, are simply pushing back. And apparently, they're wrong to do so. What would you have them do, when their work and their very honesty is attacked?

      Evolution is nothing like this. The science behind evolution has been shown over and over for a very long time, it's even the basis for many medical theories. This supposed 'consensus' that I hear about has existed for how long?

      --
      MABASPLOOM!
    50. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      In such a case, asserting that the science is settled is only an appeal to authority (since the theory will not be verified to a reasonable extent within the time to debate) and is agitative.

      Actually, this is wrong. The theory has been verified. That's why it's called a theory and not a hypothesis.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    51. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Evolution is nothing like this. The science behind evolution has been shown over and over for a very long time, it's even the basis for many medical theories. This supposed 'consensus' that I hear about has existed for how long?

      Eveolution is exactly like this. The science behind AGW has been shown over and over for a very long time. And just like Evolution, people are rejecting the facts because they feel it's a threat to their ideology. The consensus about AGW has existed for decades. You can read research on it even back in the late 1800s.

      You will notice that the exact same tactics are being used by both creationists, AGW denialists and tobacco denialists.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    52. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Thinks it's likely. Says that some unknown people... without any evidence what so ever. What a bunch of right-wing propaganda crap.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    53. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      No, you are mistaken. They rejected flawed research. You are clearly extremely ignorant, so I suggest you go away and educate yourself instead of wasting your time reading right-wing propaganda blogs.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    54. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Troed · · Score: 1

      The science behind AGW has been shown over and over for a very long time

      No. Actually it hasn't been shown a single time as of yet.

      Don't mistake the factual absorption spectre of CO2 (logarithmic) with AGW. The latter rests solely on speculated positive feedbacks of which none have been observed in reality. When observations have been made, they've indicated negative feedbacks instead.

      AGW has been falsified.

    55. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by crmarvin42 · · Score: 1

      No, but if they find that Global Warming is real and caused by human activities they are likely to get MORE funding than if they find that it is a natural occurrence, or that it is a short term trend instead of an emerging catastrophe. They are also more likely to get funding if they find that anthropogenic global warming can be blamed on 1st world countries, because it makes the politicians feel guilty for damaging not only their portion of the globe but the rest of the world as well.

      It's about the overall level of funding that they get to continue their research. All people are fallible, climatologists and environmentalists included. Is it really so hard for you to see the majority of them coming to ultimate conclusions that support further funding for their own work, which coincidentally is in their own best interest??

      I'm not saying that there is a "Conspiracy", just that independence is harder to maintain in this situation.

      --
      Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.-Oscar Wilde
    56. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by crmarvin42 · · Score: 1

      I'm not claiming Conspiracy by climate researchers, just that it is much harder for them to avoid political pressure. Besides, all of those other governments that are funding environmental research are either members of the UN, which has a decidedly anti-1st world agenda and a lot of credibility with the voting public. Anything that can be used as a tool to help lift the poverty in 3rd world countries at the expense of 1st world countries is used regardless of any data supporting its effectiveness. This makes sense because most of the countries in the UN are not 1st world nations. Poorer countries have more to gain by increased energy costs in the west, so blaming GW on the west will be popular there with the hope that this will make the rest of the world more competitive with the west.

      Furthermore, If climate researchers had changed their tune they wouldn't have gotten more funding, because the findings that the Bush administration is reported to have wanted would have made more research less necessary. You don't need to spend money on something that isn't a problem. By agreeing with the Bush administration researchers would have been admitting that they didn't need the money, and I can't see a researcher ever saying that they didn't need anymore money. If there had been a method by which some could have interpreted their research in a way acceptable to the Bush administration, AND gotten more funding as a result I have no doubt that some would have done so.

      The support from the UN, in conjunction with researchers seeing their own best interest is a more than plausible explanation for why researchers didn't change their tune during the Bush administration.

      And for the record, I don't doubt the data. Global Average Temperatures have been increasing (although I have less faith in the Ice Core data since it precludes temperature sensing from anywhere other than the poles or very high altitudes). I doubt the interpretation of the data, which is far harder to keep from becoming biased by a researchers preconceptions or self-interest. They seem to believe that they have sufficient evidence that human activities are the ONLY POSSIBLE cause of the changing global temperature data, and I just don't buy it yet.

      --
      Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.-Oscar Wilde
    57. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      No. Actually it hasn't been shown a single time as of yet.

      It has indeed. Like creationits are ignorant of evolution, you are ignorant of AGW. Just because you are ignorant doesn't mean that everyone else is.

      Don't mistake the factual absorption spectre of CO2 (logarithmic) with AGW. The latter rests solely on speculated positive feedbacks of which none have been observed in reality. When observations have been made, they've indicated negative feedbacks instead.

      No, observations have clearly shown AGW.

      AGW has been falsified.

      Really! And how might that have happened?

      Typical denialist drivel from you.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    58. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by gox · · Score: 1

      Actually, this is wrong. The theory has been verified. That's why it's called a theory and not a hypothesis.

      On what grounds do you say that? What is verified about it? Or, for instance, should String Theory be considered verified, because all of its constituents depend on empirical evidence? AGW isn't just an educated guess, it's a scientific theory, and it doesn't need to be verified to be one.

    59. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      What's verified about evolution? It's verified by thousands of experiments over many years, and all observation support the theory. That's true for AGW as well.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    60. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by gox · · Score: 1

      Well, if it's true for AGW, I'm ignorant of these observations which were distinctly predicted by AGW and not by alternative theories. These predictions don't have to be about the future climate, AGW might as well predict things about the past, which we might discover later (like the theory of evolution, which is also very predictive and consistently held up).

      Any keywords you might suggest that I look up about these verifications?

    61. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Troed · · Score: 1

      :)

      I guess you haven't tried verifying it yourself - by all means, please do.

      AGW does not rest on CO2 absorption - that is logarithmic and at the levels we're at in modern times (280ppm+) the effect of a doubling or tripling will go unnoticed.

      http://brneurosci.org/co2.html (fig. 4)

      AGW rests on speculated positive feedbacks, and all the models assume these to be true in their calculations.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming#Positive_feedback_effects

      Those positive feedbacks have not been observed, on the contrary, at least one of the speculated feedbacks has instead been observed to be negative.

      http://www.springerlink.com/content/m2054qq6126802g8/?p=e209f4ac50044f93a421b19e0a636d4b&pi=0

      Thus, the existing AGW models have been falsified.

      For more information, look up the "scientific method" and read some Popper.

    62. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      AGW does not rest on CO2 absorption - that is logarithmic and at the levels we're at in modern times (280ppm+) the effect of a doubling or tripling will go unnoticed.

      And you base this on a batshit insane denialist? Read this. You need to do better than some right-wing political blog. Come up with actual science, not just idiotic talking points.

      Feedbacks have not been observed, on the contrary, at least one of the speculated feedbacks has instead been observed to be negative.

      This nonsensical drivel will get you nowhere. You keep spewing out links, but obviously don't understand any of it. Did you even read the paper? Here's what the authors add:

      "It is of course possible that the observed humidity trends from the NCEP data are simply the result of problems with the instrumentation and operation of the global radiosonde network from which the data are derived."

      And others have pointed out what you clearly missed in your eagerness to parrot talking-points from right-wing sites:

      "In 2005, well before Paltridge et al. paper, a much more extensive analysis of water vapour datasets had been published; Trenberth at. al 2005 compared four different reanalisys (two versions of NCEP, NVAP and ERA-40) and SSM/1 satellite data. Although they considered the total integrated water vapour column, the problems with both NCEP and NVAP were clearly noticed.
      Paltridge et al. didn't even refer to Trenberth et al. work; honestly, i'm not that surprised that it has been rejected on J. Clim. This does not mean that those datasets should be thrown away, but the caution in using them is required, for _scientific_ reasons.

      Thus, the existing AGW models have been falsified.

      You have shown no such thing. All you have shown is the same extreme dishonesty as all other deniers. You claim that actual scientists are wrong. Thousands of them. And you and your right-wing retard friends know better. Laughable.

      For more information, look up the "scientific method" and read some Popper.

      You wouldn't recognize the scientific method if it kicked you in the face wearing spiked boots.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    63. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1
      Some links for you:

      http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11641-climate-myths-chaotic-systems-are-not-predictable.html

      http://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

      http://skepticalscience.com/weather-forecasts-vs-climate-models-predictions.htm

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    64. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Troed · · Score: 1

      I'm a Swedish libertarian. Your views on basically anything were falsified when you started spouting US political crap ;)

      Linking to opinion pieces on realclimate voids all possible discussion points. Climategate did that.

      (The points I wrote are still valid, of course)

    65. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      I'm a Swedish libertarian.

      No way! A right-wing loon denying scientific facts that he feels threaten his ideology! Say it isn't so!

      Your views on basically anything were falsified when you started spouting US political crap ;)

      What "US political crap"? Are you drunk?

      Linking to opinion pieces on realclimate voids all possible discussion points. Climategate did that.

      Climategate did no such thing. You are just spouting right-wing propaganda again.

      (The points I wrote are still valid, of course)

      They are not at all valid. I explained why. But as all right-wing loons, you will reject all facts that don't match your extremist ideology.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    66. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by Troed · · Score: 1

      Sorry, but calling a Libertarian "right wing" invalidates pretty much everything you ever want to post ;) Go read up on the political compass.

    67. Re:Asking the fox to guard the hen house by gox · · Score: 1

      Thanks, things like "James Hansen's 1988 climate predictions" (despite being disputed) are what I was talking about.

      OTOH, I would take the "hindcasting" and "weather chaotic, climate not" arguments more lightly.

  2. An independent panel - by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    - to review the work of another independent panel?

  3. Extra, Extra! by WrongSizeGlass · · Score: 4, Insightful

    UN agrees to let scientists disagree ...

    The UN doesn't really do anything very well ... and this won't be any different. Their contribution will most likely be just another thumb on the political scale of this controversial topic.

    1. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Their contribution will most likely be just another thumb on the political scale of this controversial topic.

      And it won't satisfy any of the AGW deniers. I mean, they're already tinfoiled up about THE GRAND SCIENTIFIC CONSPIRACY; does the UN think their findings won't be rejected as some commie-pinko-Third World black-helicopter invasion of 'Merican sovereignty?

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    2. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 4, Insightful


      Well for a start, calling those of us who have some skepticism "deniers" doesn't do you any favours. As to telling us what we will or wont be satisfied with is not your place either. We've just seen some of the leading proponents of AGW fudging data, destroying data, using personal influence in attempting to keep critical papers from being included in reports. If a second body can help bring some credibility back to the debate, then I'm all for it. The interest of anyone should be the truth and it's insulting to say that anyone who questions what they're told is doing so because they are trying to conceal the truth. It's by questioning that the truth is found and we shouldn't criticise people for questioning and saying someone is a "denier" when all they're saying is "the evidence hasn't convinced me" is wrong. And let's not even get started on your characterisations about black helicopters and commies. You think you understand climate science? I'd say you don't. The climate is very, very complicated and I doubt Phil Jones of the CRU is posting on Slashdot under the username Bemopolis. So don't mock other people who admit they don't know how the climate works and ask for explanations.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    3. Re:Extra, Extra! by Moryath · · Score: 1

      The UN doesn't really do anything very well ... and this won't be any different.

      What do you expect of a "democratic" body made up of representatives from almost entirely undemocratic/fascist/theocratic/monarchic and abusive regimes?

      After all, this is the same body that makes a yearly game of putting countries like Cuba, Libya, Syria, and Zimbabwe on "human rights" panels so that they can issue reports bitching and moaning about how bad "human rights abuses" are in places like Europe, Canada, and the US. Also the same body that cheerfully broke the shit out of its own charter, ejecting a charter member and installing to the seat instead the illegitimate militarist/communist regime now running "mainland china."

      Also the same body whose "chief nuclear inspector" is ineffective people like Hans Blix and Mohammed Elbaradei - they wouldn't even fire Elbaradei after he admitted, right on camera, that he was just running interference so that Iran could finish their nuclear weapon research.

      Heh. Parker & Stone had it right:
      "Hans Blix: Then let me look around, so I can ease the UN's collective mind. I'm sorry, but the UN must be firm with you. Let me in, or else.
      Kim Jong Il: Or else what?
      Hans Blix: Or else we will be very angry with you... and we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are."

    4. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 3, Insightful

      How much of the literature have you actually read, yourself? Not books. Not newspaper articles. Not a lecture from a blond melonhead on FNC. Actual, peer-reviewed, scientific articles written by actual scientists who understand science and do science for a living. Seriously. How much. And how much did you understand. What other scientific theories did you put to the same rigors before you accepted them. Heliocentrism? Gravity? Do you refuse to fly because you don't feel the jury is completely out on the Bernoulli effect? But perhaps I *am* being presumptuous; based on recent surveys, and assuming you are American, it's about a 50-50 chance that you don't even accept the well-established theory of evolution.

      "But, but, but, the climate is complicated." Complicated? Shit, the human body is complicated. When you get sick, do you comb through the medical journals to find out the double-blind study on the latest treatment your ailment (which you have diagnosed using your years of medical training and the DSM, no doubt). Because hey, if you don't, you are putting your very life in the hands of scientists WHO MAY BE IN ON THE CONSPIRACY. My God man, it's YOUR LIFE, employ some of that "skepticism". When you feel that lump under your armpit, get thee to a homeopath and crystal healer! And don't forget to stop by a Scientology church for your free audit — it could be a fat thetan.

      But of course not. While doctors can and do make mistakes, on the whole they are generally treating their patients under the current understanding of their field. So it is with climatologists. So please, spare me your hurt wittle feewings because I know the difference between a skeptic and a denier, and say so. And while you're at it, Google "confirmation bias".

      But hey, thanks for making my point.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    5. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "the evidence hasn't convinced me"

      Come to think of it. What evidence do we have of the heliocentric model? Have you studied observations of the planetary orbits? Have you done parallax measurements?

      What evidence do we have that man was on the moon? Some flimsy video clips? Have you studied the moon rocks that were brought back? And could you tell the difference between them and some obscure rocks found who-knows-where?

      What evidence do we have of anything, beyond "cogito, ergo sum". Not much really. Its about trust. Trust in your fellow humans. I bet that most people (even those elite few posting here) have actually never studied climatology, nor read a single of the quoted papers in the IPCC report. (We have ofcourse everybody read TFR...). But neither should we need to. You don't need to know how the processor works to use a computer. You don't need to read the cellular phone protocol specs to make a call.

      The bottom line is that you can either have blind faith in the IPCC ( blind faith is popular in e.g. religions) or you can argue that the user's guide to the climate is faulty (no "warning, hot contents" printed on the coffee cup). Either attitude stinks, but for the wast majority there is no alternative. Which guarantees a hefty and continued flame war.

    6. Re:Extra, Extra! by zigmeister · · Score: 1

      You don't need to read the cellular phone protocol specs to make a call.

      So there was a conspiracy to trick me into an EE degree. Ha, I knew it, and yes I'm bitter.

      --
      Failure formatting five FAQs of financial facts.
    7. Re:Extra, Extra! by reboot246 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      What you and everyone else just can't seem to grasp is that it is the very "peer review process" that has been compromised. In climate science peer review has become nothing more than a circle jerk, so claiming something has been peer reviewed means diddly squat.

      Until we can trust the process, climate science is just a bunch of claims and counter-claims. Of course, this new U.N. panel is a waste of time.

    8. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What you and everyone else just can't seem to grasp is that it is the very "peer review process" that has been compromised. In climate science peer review has become nothing more than a circle jerk, so claiming something has been peer reviewed means diddly squat.

      So, what you are saying is that *no* amount of scientific data and publication will convince you, because the "peer review process" has been compromised. The same argument made about biology among the "Intelligent Design" crowd.
      That's called denial.
      That makes you a denier.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    9. Re:Extra, Extra! by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      As to telling us what we will or wont be satisfied with is not your place either.

      Actually, it is quite reasonable to say what the deniers will be satisfied with because they are so predictable. For example, look at your own post:

      • Complain about being called a denier
      • Make vague and unsubstantiated accusations about "fudging data" and "destroying data" (with the implication of trying to hide the facts)
      • Be the victim: "Our papers get censored. It's all a conspiracy!"
      • Mention Phil Jones - imply he is the antichrist where ever possible

      It is all cookie cutter stuff. You did miss a few points, though.

      • It is actually getting cooler (Warning! Do not link to graphs)
      • The science isn't settled - the debate still rages
        (Warning! Do not use this in the same post as "there is no debate because we get censored")
      • Point out the few errors in the IPCC report and say the entire thing is discredited because of them
      • Say that AGW has been proved to be all a hoax and hope that nobody asks for details
      • There is a lot of money to be made in being an alarmist (but don't mention stock options in mining companies or industry funded think-tanks)

      But seriously, if you are indeed a genuine skeptic, then you should recognise that the denier tag is not being attributed to you. You must have spotted that there ARE people out there who will not be convinced on this subject no matter how much science you can show them.

    10. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 1

      Come to think of it. What evidence do we have of the heliocentric model?

      The aberration of starlight. The phases of Venus. Measurement of the Earth and Sun's gravitational influence on interstellar probes. To name a few.

      Have you studied observations of the planetary orbits?

      Yes, yes I have. In fact, I am in the office on a Saturday writing code to trace out asteroid orbits.

      Have you done parallax measurements?

      No, but I am an end user of the Hipparcos database. I guess that would fall under "trust".

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    11. Re:Extra, Extra! by Third+Position · · Score: 3, Funny

      Warmerbot:
      The new evidence does not invalidate the science *click!*... invalidate the science *click!*... invalidate the science *click!*... invalidate the science *click!*...

      --
      American Third Position
      Finally, a real choice!
    12. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 4, Insightful


      Goodness! By using terminology like "hurt wittle feewings" and extrapolating from my skepticism about AGW that I must also disbelieve evolution, medical science and refuse to fly because I think aviation is unproven, you have completely refuted my own post which was a mere logical argument following from what you said. Well played, sir, well played.

      But just so I don't get sucked into the same vortex of facetiousness that you have, I'll respond to some of your points anyway. You're likening of climate science to current medical science is very unfounded. The foundations of practical medical science (a) has been developed over a very long time whilst climate science in its current form is very recent and far more significantly (b) medical science is based on falsifiable experiments - many of them. Do you want to list some of the falsifiable experiments that climate scientists have carried out? We can compare them to the millions of repeated experiments that form the foundation of modern medical science. And remember, that medical science is frequently limited in scope. We try this single drug on 500 hundred mice with cancer and note its effect. The climate is a massive holistic system that makes it near impossible to isolate factors in the same way. Climate scientists simulate falsifiable experiments by looking for "natural" experiments in history and the environment today and that's valid, but it's not the same thing by a long shot. So we are very valid in making distinctions between medical science and climate science.

      And I think your parts about heliocentrism and gravity are hillarious. The implication is that you think anyone who doubts AGW might as well doubt gravity. Really? They're equivalent in their obviousness? You're really prepared to say: "Well if you don't notice the impact of CO2 in the upper atmosphere and how that may cause increasing humidity from the oceans causing a runaway effect which is exasperated by released glacial methane but somewhat mitigated by the increased albedo of the planet and the greater level of carbon-absorbing oceanic life-forms and plantlife then you might as well just doubt that there's a force that stops you floating into space, moron."

      Really, the point I made was "without studying all the material yourself and researching it, how can you state what the Truth is with great certainty". Do you want to explain how "how much of the literature have you read?" refutes my point? Because I don't see a connection. I say we don't know, and you respond with "well you don't know." That doesn't follow.

      And for more poor logic, no, I didn't google "confirmation bias". I find it tiresome how many people try to argue by Google, as if looking up a word is akin to making an argument. You might want to explain how someone who says that they don't know the answer and haven't reached a conclusion, is guilty of "confirmation bias". But who knows. Maybe if you google "relevance" you'll be able to cut and paste the results into your reply. ;)

      If you want to reply again, this time please actually argue points, rather than a spiel about scientology and other attempts at argument through mockery.

      Regards,
      H.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    13. Re:Extra, Extra! by chrb · · Score: 2, Interesting

      calling those of us who have some skepticism "deniers" doesn't do you any favours.

      And yet, calling people global warming alarmists and warmists is fine... ... regardless, what would you prefer to be called? Calling someone who denies global warming theory a "global warming denier" seems to be somewhat logical - rather more intellectually honest than those who would then immediately "Godwin" any further discussion by pretending that they have been called a Nazi. Does denying that the world is flat make you a Nazi? No. Does denying that the moon landings have occurred make you a Nazi? No. So why is it that only global warming deniers immediately leap to the conclusion that they are being likened to those who deny the Holocaust? This is not the behaviour of reasonable debaters.

    14. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      The CRU mails include a wonderful example where a scientific journal collaborates with the CRU to delay publishing of a paper for a few months so they have enough time to cobble together a satisfying rebuttal of it to be published at the same time. But of course, it's obvious that you haven't read them, and have no intention to ever do so.
      Your tireless wholehearted and rather blind dedication for only one side is called zeal.
      That makes you a zealot.

    15. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1

      Until we can trust the process, climate science is just a bunch of claims and counter-claims. Of course, this new U.N. panel is a waste of time.

      We don't know that. And as a skeptic, I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    16. Re:Extra, Extra! by ehrichweiss · · Score: 1

      I agree that calling them any "iers" or "ists" is not doing any justice to the debate BUT that doesn't mean that sensationalism(on both sides) and alarmism(probably also on both sides) isn't happening.

      --
      0x09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
    17. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Pick one:
      If you have read the literature and understand the science well enough to make cogent arguments against the conclusions, that makes you a skeptic.
      If you have not read the literature, have no grasp of the science behind it, but accept the conclusions because you like them, that makes you a zealot.
      If you have not read the literature, have no grasp of the science behind it, but reject the conclusions because you don't like them, that makes you a denier.

      I merely stated that the term "denier" applies to you, and pointed out your defensiveness about being labeled as such. (The facetiousness was value-added content just for my own amusement.) As for whether you are a geocentric Intelligent Design-loving Scientologist, that's just as likely as any other supposition on my part. Since you seem to be a "skeptic" about one particular field of science based on no reasoning whatsoever (other than "It's so complicated, waaaa"), why not the rest of them?

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    18. Re:Extra, Extra! by wizardforce · · Score: 1

      I agree. Unfortunately there seem to be an ever growing number of anti-AGW mods on /. as of late and you've got modded down for it.

      --
      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    19. Re:Extra, Extra! by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      OK, here is an exercise for the reader. Scroll through all the messages and see how many of them match the list I gave in my previous message. People keep repeating the same arguments without really understanding what they are saying.

      I remember a while back when "show us the data" was the mantra that was supposed to discredit AGW. One time when someone said "I can't believe in climate change until I can see the data for myself", people responded with various links to publicly available data. The original poster had to concede that he had way of understanding the data and would have to let someone else check it.

      It showed me how so many of these so called skeptics just parrot the arguments that they read on some website without comprehension. If they can't understand their own arguments, how can they understand the science when presented to them?

    20. Re:Extra, Extra! by feepness · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So, what you are saying is that *no* amount of scientific data and publication will convince you, because the "peer review process" has been compromised. The same argument made about biology among the "Intelligent Design" crowd.
      That's called denial.
      That makes you a denier.

      So what you're saying is that *no* amount of malfeasance will convince you the belief system is invalid. The same argument made about the bible among the "Intelligent Design" crowd.
      That's called faith.
      That make you a member of a religion.

    21. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1

      Actually, it is quite reasonable to say what the deniers will be satisfied with because they are so predictable. For example, look at your own post: Complain about being called a denier Make vague and unsubstantiated accusations about "fudging data" and "destroying data" (with the implication of trying to hide the facts) Be the victim: "Our papers get censored. It's all a conspiracy!" Mention Phil Jones - imply he is the antichrist where ever possible

      Well there're all sorts of things wrong with the above. For a start, you criticise me for complaining about being called a denier. Here's an experiment: I'll call you a denier and we'll see if you reject the label or accept it. Rejecting a label is the natural response when one thinks it wrong. Now you may or may not think I'm wrong to reject it, but saying "Ah-ha! You complain about being called a denier" carries no weight. You would do the same yourself. I will go further though and point out why the label is wrong. I said I don't know if AGW is true or false, not that it is false. It is improper to label such a position as a "denier" but that is how the label is being repeatedly used. You also criticise my response for being predictable, as if that somehow invalidates it. If I'm repeatedly asked what 2+2 equals and I keep on answering 4, do you start dismiss the point when you'd rather the answer was 5 by saying I'm "predictable"? This sniping has no value and I'm sure you're better than this.

      Make vague and unsubstantiated accusations about "fudging data" and "destroying data" (with the implication of trying to hide the facts)

      Well, it's not that vague really. We've all seen and read the emails by now. We know that data that was used as the basis for published work was deliberately deleted rather than allow others to examine it. If for some reason you haven't read these emails, they're there for you to look at, just search for "Climate Research Unit" and "emails".

      "Our papers get censored. It's all a conspiracy!"

      Quote marks imply you're quoting something. I know the above didn't appear in my post, nor did something equivalent. Making up things another party has said in order to knock it down is what is known as a straw man. If you find yourself resorting to straw men, you should examine your argument.

      Mention Phil Jones - imply he is the antichrist where ever possible

      Your reading comprehension is poor in this instance, I'm afraid. Go back and read my post. You'll find that my accusation was that the poster I was talking to did not understand climate science himself because I hardly thought that he was Phil Jones posting under a funny username. You see? I was actually using Phil Jones in this example as an expert who does know a lot about climate science. That you misrepresent what I said so badly shows that you are replying not to what I wrote, but what you either think I wrote or what you would like to me have written. I am hoping this is misunderstanding on your part rather than deliberately trying to mislead.

      It is all cookie cutter stuff. You did miss a few points, though.

      Ah, I take it back. You are replying to what you would like me to have said, rather than what I did say. The reason I didn't make any of the points you go on to say I "missed" is because those are not my points. You have decided that I fall into a category and even go so far as to correct me on how to represent my beliefs. This is what I am objecting to. Surely you think it is wrong to attribute beliefs to people that they don't actually hold for the purpose of labelling and dismissing them?

      Regards,
      H.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    22. Re:Extra, Extra! by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Do you want to explain how "how much of the literature have you read?" refutes my point?

      It's a pertinent question. When someone claims that there is effectively no evidence in favor of AGW, they'd damn well better know what is actually being written in the relevant science journals otherwise it's little different than what the creationists do. i.e. a YEC claiming evolution doesn't exist ought to be fairly knowledgeable of any scientific papers on the subject of evolution just as AGW deniers. This isn't an unreasonable request, that is that if your going to make a claim either way you ought to know what the hell you're talking about.

      --
      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    23. Re:Extra, Extra! by durrr · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A lot of skeptics are not denying we're seeing a long time warming, glaciers after all have been receding for some 150+ years.
      They are however rejecting that human activity is the primary driving factor and that things will go to shit and the sealevel will reach the moon before the end of next week if we do nothing.

      To condense it, there's two main disagreements: The cause; Man vs Nature. And feedback; negative or positive.

      To the latter i may add that negative feedback is more often found in nature, perhaps because it dutifully returns towards its origin and can experience feedback once again, whereas positive feedback once put in motion is not likely to stop or return anytime soon. If negative feedback, i'm buying a SUV. If positive, i'll buy an amphibic SUV, because even the most dreamy scenario of 30-50% reduction in CO2 emissions would still not be enough to stop it.

    24. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Man, if douche-bags had friends you'd still be too big of a giant douche-bag to have any friends.

      I bet you think other posters on /. are entwined in one of your 'conspiracy theories'. Well, guess what fucktard, we just like seeing you shoot your semi-cerebral wad while some form of reality Deliverance makes you squirm. You work on your next post while I go make some popcorn.

    25. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Pick one:

      You see, you go wrong on the very first line of your post. If I ask you what 5 + 3 gives and tell you to pick an answer from [1,7,9,11] then that's no good at all. And your post is similar. You list a few positions which you have created so that you can point out what is wrong with them and tell me to choose which applies to me? Well none of them, I'm afraid, or have you not read the posts you are replying to? I think we're more or less done here, but I'll cover the last few bits of your post.

      I merely stated that the term "denier" applies to you, and pointed out your defensiveness about being labeled as such

      Great logic - I'm a "denier" because you say so and this is confirmed by my saying I'm not because rejecting a label is a sure sign of guilt. In other words: if he says he's not a commie traitor, he must be, because that's exactly what a commie traitor would say.

      The facetiousness was value-added content just for my own amusement

      It's good that you can amuse yourself. I'm afraid the rest of the world probably just saw it as ad hominems.

      Since you seem to be a "skeptic" about one particular field of science based on no reasoning whatsoever (other than "It's so complicated, waaaa"), why not the rest of them?

      I explained this. Falsifiability, controlled experiments, not to mention how stupid it is for you to suggest man's precise effect upon the climate and in what ways is as obvious as gravity's effect upon ourselves and that one who is uncommitted on the former might as well dismiss the latter. And as to "it's so complicated, waaaa", my first inclination is to tell you to grow up, but honestly, I make no apologies for not understanding all the intricacies of how the climate works and I grow tired of you implying that it's easy.

      I'm probably done here,

      Regards
      H.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    26. Re:Extra, Extra! by IICV · · Score: 1

      We've just seen some of the leading proponents of AGW fudging data, destroying data, using personal influence in attempting to keep critical papers from being included in reports.

      Please, oh please, source those statements. I would love to see them supported somewhere. Keep in mind that the CRU emails have been put into context on any number of occasions, and that context doesn't actually involve fudging data, destroying data, or using personal influence to accomplish or try to accomplish anything untoward.

    27. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well for a start, calling those of us who have some skepticism "deniers" doesn't do you any favours.

      He called the deniers deniers - if the shoe fits...

    28. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      So what you're saying is that *no* amount of malfeasance will convince you the belief system is invalid.

      Why, because scientists being dicks to each other is out of character? Please. And as for dismissing the general public, you should have seen some of the bullshit mail I got from the general public as an astronomer (O may "God" bless you Honest John Malatich you crazy-ass sumbitch!). And that was just from the self-motivated whack jobs; I can only imagine the volume of shit what climatologists get from those in the general public, especially as they tend to be well-funded by those with financial and political agendas.

      Personally I will not waste my time discussing science with deniers face to face, any more than I will listen to rant about Jeebus as you try to hand me your pamphlet. Now skeptics are another matter, but you better be prepared to answer some basic physics questions, lest ye be a denier in skeptic's clothing. And besides, malfeasance is not counter-evidence. If it turns out that Isaac Newton was a child-molester who enjoyed stealing from the Treasury while screaming blasphemes about Christ's after-Last Supper activities at the Archbishop of Canterbury, it would not affect his theory on the motions of the planets or those on the nature of light.

      Conversely, if it turned out he never kicked a puppy, gave his possessions to the needy, and died keeping the temple of his body virginal so he could sit at the right hand of God, it would not make his theory valid at speeds near that of light.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    29. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 0

      If I ask you what 5 + 3 gives and tell you to pick an answer from [1,7,9,11] then that's no good at all.

      Actually it's quite good. It tells me that you can't do math.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    30. Re:Extra, Extra! by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      For a start, you criticise me for complaining about being called a denier. Here's an experiment: I'll call you a denier and we'll see if you reject the label or accept it.

      You were never called a denier. You decided to take someone's use of the term to be a reference to yourself, and then complain that you shouldn't be called that. If you don't think that it applies to you then just move on. But can you categorically say that there aren't people out there who fit the description of a denier?

      You also criticise my response for being predictable, as if that somehow invalidates it.

      No, I didn't. I merely claim that we can fairly predict a response from a particular group of people who tend to follow very strict trends. If the trend is for those people not to trust a committee of scientists then they will hardly trust another committee of scientists to oversee the first lot.

      Well, it's not that vague really. We've all seen and read the emails by now.

      They did obstruct FOI requests, and Phil Jones stated he would prefer to destroy the data rather than let an individual access it, but did any data actually get deliberately destroyed? Maybe you can point me to the specific email that says this. Until then, I think that it is a vague claim.

      "Our papers get censored. It's all a conspiracy!"
      Quote marks imply you're quoting something. I know the above didn't appear in my post, nor did something equivalent.

      Oh please, it was obviously too extreme to be anything other than a paraphrase of an idea. Certainly not a quote.

      You are replying to what you would like me to have said, rather than what I did say. The reason I didn't make any of the points you go on to say I "missed" is because those are not my points.

      Nowhere did I say that you think that. I was continuing the list of classic denialist points. Since you claim not to be a denialist then obviously it couldn't be about you, could it?

    31. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's a pertinent question. When someone claims that there is effectively no evidence in favor of AGW, they'd damn well better know what is actually being written in the relevant science journals otherwise it's little different than what the creationists do. i.e. a YEC claiming evolution doesn't exist ought to be fairly knowledgeable of any scientific papers on the subject of evolution just as AGW deniers. This isn't an unreasonable request, that is that if your going to make a claim either way you ought to know what the hell you're talking about.

      A fair point and one Hell of a lot better put (and more politely) than the GP. But it's essentially a different point to the one the GP was making. He was stating that anyone who says they don't know if AGW is reasonably certain or not is a "denier" and believes the default position should be that we take it on faith that AGW is correct and that it is a binary affair: you believe in AGW or you're a "denier". I, like many others, fall into the agnostic position, for want of a better term. Your point is a very valid rebuttal to the "atheist" position, those that say categorically that there is no AGW. And truly, your logic is correct, imo. My point, and I hope it hasn't become lost in this, is that it is wrong to shout "denier" at those who are simply skeptical but that unfortunately this is what appears to be happening quite a lot right now. Certainly there are examples in the comments here on Slashdot and I've seen that logic (I use the term loosely here) in the mainstream media. I think there are few if any people who say that the climate isn't changing - it's the climate, that's what it does. ;) There probably aren't that many who say that man isn't having an effect on the climate (I think we probably are). But there are many that don't know what that effect is and so far haven't been convinced that AGW is correct (to a reasonable degree). I say it's wrong to label such people as deniers, yet this seems to be popular.

      This is off-topic, but I'm probably an odd case. I originally thought that AGW was very probably the correct. I grew up learning about global warming and, not being an expert on climate science, I worked on the logic that a lot of people who studied it in depth with no apparent motive to misrepresent it said it was so, therefore my best course of action in any case where I was required to act according to whether AGW was true or not was to assume that it was. Also, a few poorly thought out stunts by groups funded by Exxon and pals helped me look on those arguing against AGW with great suspicion.

      Now I haven't undergone some great conversion and started denouncing AGW as a huge conspiracy or anything. But I've since had some first-hand experience with bias, propaganda and selective reporting in the mainstream media on the subject of AGW. Not in the acceptable manner of refuting AGW critics with logic or data, but with simple ad hominems, suppression and out-of-hand dismissals. And we've seen examples here and there of the same behaviour in the academic community. Having worked in academia, I also came across a frightening amount of group think on the issue of AGW and, though AGW may even be correct, I have seen first hand that a lot of its proponents are arguing it on faith rather than facts. That's very disturbing. And also in this time, I've seen it shift from "Global Warming" to (when the former turned out to be too hard to prove) to "Climate change" which is pretty much irrefutable, and pretty much useless as well. I've read more on the subject and realised just how very complex this really is. We're a long way from the 'pollutants build up in the upper atmosphere and trap heat on Earth like a greenhouse' that I was given in school. I don't know that AGW is false, but exposure and interest have caused me to move my position to one of thinking we don't have enough certainty to say 'yes' or 'no' yet, or more accurately, enough to say it's reasonably probable. Naturally I object t

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    32. Re:Extra, Extra! by chrb · · Score: 1

      A lot of skeptics are not denying we're seeing a long time warming

      Quantify "a lot" - one of the main sceptic arguments is that there is no warming - the supposed evidence being that the instrumental temperature record is wrong (ie. SurfaceStations.org) and that the CRU dataset has been faked to show an increase when the mean temperature has either not changed or is falling. Given the prevalence of these beliefs in the sceptic community, the ones who accept that the world is warming are probably in a minority.

    33. Re:Extra, Extra! by feepness · · Score: 1

      If it turns out that Isaac Newton was a child-molester who enjoyed stealing from the Treasury while screaming blasphemes about Christ's after-Last Supper activities at the Archbishop of Canterbury, it would not affect his theory on the motions of the planets or those on the nature of light.

      No. But it should certainly exclude him from suggesting policy regarding sex offenders.

    34. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1

      Oooo, you're a twisty bugger. :) The OP used "denier" to cover everyone that didn't accept AGW as an accepted fact, he included genuine skeptics which covers me. If you're saying "denier" just applies to people who say AGW is false and don't apply it to people who merely say it's not sufficiently proven, then we're good. I'd caution you to be wary of the term, though, as it's becoming a generic slur to use at anyone who is critical of AGW whether in whole or in part. And you don't want to use imprecise terms, do you? :)

      They did obstruct FOI requests, and Phil Jones stated he would prefer to destroy the data rather than let an individual access it, but did any data actually get deliberately destroyed? Maybe you can point me to the specific email that says this. Until then, I think that it is a vague claim.

      Both of the first two reflect very, very poorly on the CRU establishing intent to conceal their data and prevent any chance of examining the validity of the data used in conclusions. As to data being deliberately destroyed, that is confirmed here. Now they say it was to save space. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not. But we have confirmed that they had the intent to prevent others getting hold of their data and that they did destroy data and there's bugger all reason to not keep data in this day and age, imo. In this particular case, it was actually illegal to dispose of the data as FOI requires they keep it. I've worked in such environments - we had piles of this stuff for legal reasons. Anyway, you can being concerned about it being a vague claim now, so there's that, at least.

      Oh please, it was obviously too extreme to be anything other than a paraphrase of an idea. Certainly not a quote.

      Well you were responding to my post and there's nothing in there that you could paraphrase as you did. You say this, and other points, are illustrative of what denialists believe. You seem to have missed that my original post was an objection to the way some describe those who don't accept AGW as proven with as "denialists" and argue against what "denialists" supposedly believe rather than what the person they are talking to actually believes. You're providing a great example of this.

      As to this:

      Since you claim not to be a denialist then obviously it couldn't be about you, could it?

      Well, yes, I do think you're talking about me when you say denialist, actually, because your very first post began with this:

      Actually, it is quite reasonable to say what the deniers will be satisfied with because they are so predictable. For example, look at your own post:

      Do try and remember what you wrote two posts ago. :)
      Regards,
      H.

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    35. Re:Extra, Extra! by Bemopolis · · Score: 1

      No. But it should certainly exclude him from suggesting policy regarding sex offenders.

      That's as may be, but the corresponding argument to which I was replying was that all physicists should be excluded from suggesting policy regarding sex offenders if it turned out that Isaac Newton liked to squoosh the nadges on the odd paperboy.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    36. Re:Extra, Extra! by durrr · · Score: 1

      If i've got it right the argument is that the warming is on a century-lenght scale, a recovery after the little ice age, whereas the CRU graphs trying to pin explosive warming on recent decades are fabricated by adjusting old temperature records to cooler values and recent temperatures to higher values.
      In short, they apply a hockey-stickifying algorithm to the records to give the alarming impression that temperatures since the 70s or so have been climbing agressively.

      I might be a bit off target though, i only started to semi-actively following the skeptic side a few weeks after the emails found their way out of CRU.

    37. Re:Extra, Extra! by Jade_Wayfarer · · Score: 1

      Ah, rephrasing old quote: "God, please help science lose such 'friends and protectors', and it will deal with it's 'enemies' perfectly by itself". Arrogance and strange, out-of-context metaphors are so 'scientific', of course. Speaking of great scientist - most of them were arrogant and passionate when someone has touched their favorite theories, but accepted 'skepticism' very well - they believed in their truth enough. Funny fact, speaking of Newton - he developed his theories as a part of his own 'proof of God's existence' - and we discard that part of his work completely. As a Leibniz's, Descartes's, Planck's, Pauli's and many other greater minds of their time.

      If more scientists were just working hard on their theories, and supported with this work their beliefs, instead of throwing childish insults at each other, who knows what technical (and maybe ethical) heights would've been available to us today? Oh well, we'll have to do with what we have today, it seems.

      --
      Absence of proof != proof of absence.
    38. Re:Extra, Extra! by Scrameustache · · Score: 1

      A lot of skeptics are not denying we're seeing a long time warming, glaciers after all have been receding for some 150+ years.
        They are however rejecting that human activity is the primary driving factor

      I'll grant you that a lot of the skeptics (though not the ones hosting shows on Fox) have stopped denying the warming AND that skepticism is a healthy position to have in general.

      But it just seems like they're moving by increments: There is no warming / ok there is warming but it's not our fault / there is warming and even if it is our fault it's gonna be a good thing.

      The only point that remains constant is the "let us pollute all we want" part.

      I say: Tax pollution either way.

      --

      You can't take the sky from me...

    39. Re:Extra, Extra! by graft · · Score: 1

      I'm not familiar with the relevant debate - link?

      But the real question, for me, would be - WAS the rebuttal satisfying? Because that's what actually matters - how does the science stack up? And as far as I've ever seen, when it comes down to the science, AGW wins, hands down.

    40. Re:Extra, Extra! by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      The OP used "denier" to cover everyone that didn't accept AGW as an accepted fact, he included genuine skeptics which covers me.

      That's just you being paranoid. Actually, it is worse than that. That is you lying. The original poster gave you his definition of denier a couple of hours ago and it doesn't match what you just said. And how could you have thought he was referring to a rational skeptic when he used the phrase "they're already tinfoiled up about THE GRAND SCIENTIFIC CONSPIRACY"?

      Both of the first two reflect very, very poorly on the CRU establishing intent to conceal their data and prevent any chance of examining the validity of the data used in conclusions

      No, it shows how sick they are of having to deal with people who try it find any anomaly so they can claim that it invalidates the entire data set. These weren't genuine researchers that they were dealing with, they were people out to prove the whole science was bogus using unscientific and misleading methods and the CRU didn't want anyone listening to them.

      And yes, this is exactly what people accuse the CRU of doing, and they also don't want anyone listening to the CRU.

      As for the destruction of the raw data in the 80s, this predated the politics and non-scientific backlash. I am sure that they felt the normalised data was sufficient for their needs. And yet this was more of a PR problem than a scientific one. Everybody says that the CRU are destroying the data and point to this as proof. Considering how this predates the current CRU leadership (and indeed this entire debate) then it is really an example of the misleading FUD spewed out by the likes of those "non-genuine researchers" to whom they didn't want to give the data! And you continue it:

      But we have confirmed that they had the intent to prevent others getting hold of their data and that they did destroy data and there's bugger all reason to not keep data in this day and age, imo.

      That is FUD. The data destruction predates the "intent to prevent", and it didn't happen "in this day and age". So we still have no evidence of any malicious data destruction.

      In this particular case, it was actually illegal to dispose of the data as FOI requires they keep it.

      You mean when they destroyed the data in the 1980s they were contravening the Freedom of Information Act of 2000? I can't imagine why they didn't know.

      Well, yes, I do think you're talking about me when you say denialist...

      Fair enough. I really haven't seen any evidence that you are not a denialist, anyway.

    41. Re:Extra, Extra! by Mspangler · · Score: 1

      "Mention Phil Jones - imply he is the antichrist where ever possible"

      I don't have to imply he's the antichrist anymore. He admitted there has been no warming in 15 years on the BBC.

      And we have this fine headline; "The scientist behind the bogus claim in a Nobel Prize-winning UN report that Himalayan glaciers will have melted by 2035 last night admitted it was included purely to put political pressure on world leaders." The "Scientist" [snort] in question is later identified as Dr Murari Lal. He knew it was false. He put it in to scare people into doing what he wanted.

      Global warming advocates have crapped in their own nest more thoroughly than anyone since Nixon and Watergate.

      The record snowfall on the East Coast is just icing on the cake.

    42. Re:Extra, Extra! by Dr.+Evil · · Score: 1

      And also in this time, I've seen it shift from "Global Warming" to (when the former turned out to be too hard to prove) to "Climate change" which is pretty much irrefutable, and pretty much useless as well.

      Interesting interpretation.

      The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2003/mar/04/usnews.climatechange

    43. Re:Extra, Extra! by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Dude, you missed out the denial about smoking causing lung cancer meme? Sorry to break it to you, but you're either bad, or mad.

    44. Re:Extra, Extra! by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Common fallacy: person A believes X, group B believes X and Y, therefore person A believes Y.

    45. Re:Extra, Extra! by Burnhard · · Score: 1
      You didn't need to write so much h4rm0ny, you just needed to quote Mark Twain:

      Respect those who seek the truth, be wary of those who claim to have found it.

    46. Re:Extra, Extra! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      The CRU mails include a wonderful example where a scientific journal collaborates with the CRU to delay publishing of a paper for a few months so they have enough time to cobble together a satisfying rebuttal of it to be published at the same time.

      So, was the rebuttal solid and factually correct, and did it convincingly demonstrate how and why the original paper was wrong?

      'cause that's all that really matters in the end.

    47. Re:Extra, Extra! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And also in this time, I've seen it shift from "Global Warming" to (when the former turned out to be too hard to prove) to "Climate change" which is pretty much irrefutable, and pretty much useless as well.

      So far as I understand, the name change was purely political, because labeling it "global warming" required explaining that it's the average temperature is going up, not the local one for every single guy asking this question - and there were (and still are, as evidenced by Slashdot discussion) surprisingly a lot of them.

      Even though they name it "climate change" now, the prediction is the same - global average temperature going up. So it's not any more or less refutable - all you need to do is measure it and see what the long-term trend is.

    48. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mod parent "-1, Fascist".

      (click on the link in his sig and read through to see why)

    49. Re:Extra, Extra! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      A lot of skeptics are not denying we're seeing a long time warming, glaciers after all have been receding for some 150+ years.
      They are however rejecting that human activity is the primary driving factor and that things will go to shit and the sealevel will reach the moon before the end of next week if we do nothing.

      That's why the correct term is "antropogenic global warming denier", or "AGW denier" for short - a person who either denies that GW is real, or denies that it it antropogenic.

      he latter i may add that negative feedback is more often found in nature, perhaps because it dutifully returns towards its origin and can experience feedback once again, whereas positive feedback once put in motion is not likely to stop or return anytime soon.

      There are plenty of examples of both kinds of feedback in natural processes; some very simple mechanical experiments will display both.

    50. Re:Extra, Extra! by gox · · Score: 1

      In my sort of idealistic thinking about science and society, if we know something can be only bad, or worse, or less bad (but not good), there is not many scientific reasons not to try to change it (i'm directly referencing CO2 emissions now).

      Well, if it's as isolated as you say, you're right. But there are many factors: certainty (climate science), severity of impact (involves many fields of science), possible solutions (again, many fields) and cost-benefit analysis (economics). There could be many scientific reasons for not trying to change it.

    51. Re:Extra, Extra! by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure you really get it: in this case you're the one who doesn't do math.

    52. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Re: Deniers. Skeptics, who are unwittingly led and fed by the Marshal Institute, call AGW proponents "alarmists:"

      http://www.marshall.org/article.php?id=729
      (Also download a PDF of contrarian "Cocktail Conversation" here - in other words, your talking points.)

      The frustration apparent in the limited selection of hacked CRU email released might be a response to a physical DDOS from deniers... a flood of different requests for data meant to disrupt CRU routine.

    53. Re:Extra, Extra! by jhol13 · · Score: 1

      According to the news I have read they will make everything, including raw data (and metadata) open nad freely available to everyone.

      How the fuck this can be bad? Because "UN"?

    54. Re:Extra, Extra! by jhol13 · · Score: 1

      One problem with those articles in science journals is that many of them base their data on the "hockey stick" - which is in very much doubt. Another problem is that there has been pressure to publish only one kind of articles. Some articles claim erroneous results on purpose (both ways)!

      Now what they are trying to do, hopefully, is to show the raw data (and metadata, etc.), i.e. to show whether the hockey stick article is valid or not. If it is not (i.e. no warming has happened) then ... well, who are the "deniers"? If there is warming (which is likely) it will be very interesting to see how much. Tenth of a degree per 100 years is not much, a degree per 30 years is.

      As long as data & metadata is secret we just do not know, which is IMHO untenable. Especially if we are going to base our multi billion dollar decisions on that.

    55. Re:Extra, Extra! by XSpud · · Score: 1

      I don't have to imply he's the antichrist anymore. He admitted there has been no warming in 15 years on the BBC.

      This is not what he said, he said that the warming trend since 1995 is not statistically significant at the 95% level (which is not surprising when looking at trends in a noisy system when you have only 15 data points).

      If you want to see a full transcript rather than the misleading reporting on many news sites, here's a link:

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm (Question B)

    56. Re:Extra, Extra! by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      The usual rant.

      What do you expect of a "democratic" body made up of representatives from almost entirely undemocratic/fascist/theocratic/monarchic and abusive regimes?

      So you think it would be worth while making a "United Nice Nations" who would just talk to themselves? (Hint - you make peace with your enemies, not your friends)

      After all, this is the same body that makes a yearly game of putting countries like Cuba, Libya, Syria, and Zimbabwe on "human rights" panels so that they can issue reports bitching and moaning about how bad "human rights abuses" are in places like Europe, Canada, and the US.

      Somewhat spoiled by the sad discovery that the US has been torturing people.

      Also the same body that cheerfully broke the shit out of its own charter, ejecting a charter member and installing to the seat instead the illegitimate militarist/communist regime now running "mainland china."

      So the UN should recognize the UK as the legitimate rulers of British North America?

      Also the same body whose "chief nuclear inspector" is ineffective people like Hans Blix and Mohammed Elbaradei

      So, who was right on Iraq, Blix or Colin Powell?

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    57. Re:Extra, Extra! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You must have spotted that there ARE people out there who will not be convinced on this subject no matter how much science you can show them.

      that goes both ways. What would it take for most "believers" to change their minds? The pattern is nothing. Even 100 years of colder temperatures wouldn't be enough.

    58. Re:Extra, Extra! by Mspangler · · Score: 1

      And which part of "not statistically significant" confuses you?

      Global warming stopped. It may start again, it may not. Solar Cycle theory says we are in for 30 years of cooling. Without claiming to be a booster of that theory, it did predict the mid-century cooling, and the late century warming of the 20th century. Maybe it's time to reexamine that hypothesis.

      In the mean time, your prophet, messiah, whatever, admits there has been no warming in over a decade even though CO2 levels continue to rise, another "exalted member of the club" admits to lying in an official publication intended to influence public policy, and yet you still hold on to a blown hypothesis.

      Are we talking about a science, or a religion?

      The question you need to consider is how to clean house in a way that allows you to be taken seriously again. Some heads are going to have to roll. Much of the data will have to be revalidated by some one trusted by the "other" side. Once that is all sorted out, models vetted by third parties can be used to run the extrapolations. Then you might be able to make policy recommendations that will be believed.

      So, deny you have a problem and become a religious cult, or face up to the mess, roll up your sleeves and fix it.

      Even I admit to the possibility of a tipping point; the 8200 year event and the Younger Dryas make that very plain, and even a Little Ice Age rerun would be a huge mess. None of those climate changes were caused by human industrial activity, which is why I am skeptical about the anthropogenic part of Global Warming.

      But I don't want the baby thrown out with the bathwater. The current climate research has been overrun with people pushing a religious and political agenda. So I am suspicious. If you want me to accept an energy command economy, which seems to be the movement's goal, you will need a lot better science than I have seen so far.

    59. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      believes the default position should be that we take it on faith that AGW is correct

      No, you are the one with the faith. AGW is fact. You don't take it on faith. You know that there is scientific consensus, and unless you think you know better than the scientists, you should clearly spend more time educating yourself than discussing it.

      There probably aren't that many who say that man isn't having an effect on the climate (I think we probably are). But there are many that don't know what that effect is and so far haven't been convinced that AGW is correct

      Those people cannot be convinced because their political ideology compels them to ignore facts that they feel contradict their world view.

      But I've since had some first-hand experience with bias, propaganda and selective reporting in the mainstream media on the subject of AGW.

      There's your problem. You are using the mainstream media as an excuse to ignore the facts. Just because the mainstream media gets something wrong doesn't mean that they represent science. It's just a scapegoat. An excuse for you to reject unpleasant facts.

      though AGW may even be correct, I have seen first hand that a lot of its proponents are arguing it on faith rather than facts

      So what? Why do you even care? You should be looking at the facts, not how other people are behaving. Another excuse to willfully ignore the facts.

      And also in this time, I've seen it shift from "Global Warming" to (when the former turned out to be too hard to prove) to "Climate change"

      See, this is why you are a denier. You are spreading all these nonsensical lies. There has been no shift from global warming to climate change. It has always been about climate change, specifically global warming. You are exactly like creationists and tobacco deniers in that you are misrepresenting the science, and using excuses to willfully ignore the facts.

      Remember that critics of AGW need not even actually be disputing whether or not there's warming, but merely questioning the extent of humanity's part in it. Yet it all gets shouted down as "denier".

      No, you get shouted down as a denier because you act like one. Stop being dishonest, and people will stop calling you a denier. Your arguments clearly show that you are not merely "skeptical". You are outright denying facts you don't like, and making up excuses for doing so.

      I've had people who know even less about climate science than I do (my knowledge on the subject is considerably higher than most people's and way less than a climate scientist)

      Considering the nonsense you have produced so far, I find it hard to believe.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    60. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      They are however rejecting that human activity is the primary driving factor

      So they are rejecting the facts. Why are they rejecting the facts if they are mere skeptics? A skeptic would not reject the facts. One who rejects the facts in this manner is a denialist.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    61. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      He admitted there has been no warming in 15 years on the BBC.

      Ah, the typical denier. He is completely ignorant, and merely parrots whatever the right-wing plogs he reads, and never bothers to check the facts. Jones admitted no such thing. Read it again, and ask someone what the quote means.

      And we have this fine headline

      Which is a lie, of course. It was a typo, nothing else.

      The record snowfall on the East Coast is just icing on the cake.

      Ah, the typical denier. He is completely ignorant, and merely parrots whatever the right-wing plogs he reads, and never bothers to check the facts.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    62. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      And which part of "not statistically significant" confuses you?

      No part of it, apparently. It clearly confuses you, since you evidently don't understand what it means. Hint: It does not mean "it has not warmed".

      Global warming stopped.

      Nope.

      Solar Cycle theory says we are in for 30 years of cooling.

      Actually, the sun has been warming the planet less, and yet the climate has warmed.

      In the mean time, your prophet, messiah, whatever, admits there has been no warming in over a decade even though CO2 levels continue to rise, another "exalted member of the club" admits to lying in an official publication intended to influence public policy, and yet you still hold on to a blown hypothesis.

      No, he did no such thing, and it is not a mere hypothesis. It is a scientific theory.

      Much of the data will have to be revalidated by some one trusted by the "other" side.

      Who might that be? All the well known denialist leaders have been repeatedly caught lying.

      The current climate research has been overrun with people pushing a religious and political agenda.

      Yes. They are the right-wing deniers. They are wasting people's time, so more of it is spent on pointless political debates, and less on actual scientific research (all of which confirms AGW, by the way).

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    63. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      As to data being deliberately destroyed, that is confirmed here.

      Never happened, actually. They only deleted a small part of a local copy in order to save space when moving to a new location. The original data was still available where they licensed it from(!) in the first place.

      Now you know why you are a denier.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    64. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      As for the destruction of the raw data in the 80s

      Never happened, actually. They only deleted a small part of a local copy in order to save space when moving to a new location. The original data was still available where they licensed it from(!) in the first place.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    65. Re:Extra, Extra! by symbolset · · Score: 1

      That you post like a prick to defend your precious meme does neither yourself, nor the meme any good.

      The planet is warming. Yeah, fine. It's been warming for 30,000 years, and you can't blame all of that on coal or Men. If we've accellerated the process slightly, so what? We don't have more fossil fuels left than we've burned already. When these fossil fuels were laid down the Earth was in no danger of a runaway greenhouse and it isn't now.

      It's made up. It's a fiction. You are going to be embarassed when you discover that the End is not nigh. The climate is, was, and always will be changing. We can't push it much one way or the other, because we're just not that important. Bacteria hold more sway than us.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    66. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1

      Now you know why you are a denier.

      My bad. I read an article in the Times and set it above the word of a random poster on Slashdot. Citation?

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    67. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      You are evidently completely ignorant, and will only ever listen to right-wing anti-science propaganda. Fail.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    68. Re:Extra, Extra! by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1

      You are evidently completely ignorant, and will only ever listen to right-wing anti-science propaganda. Fail.

      The Times is a major UK newspaper and hardly a source of "right-wing anti-science propaganda". Not that right-wing / left-wing have anything to do with science. The truth is not a partisan issue. I asked you why I should take the word of some random poster on Slashdot over a major newspaper which states the scientists themselves have admitted deleting data, I asked where your citation was. You reply with "Fail". Yep - you really support your case, don't you?

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    69. Re:Extra, Extra! by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      The Times is a major UK newspaper and hardly a source of "right-wing anti-science propaganda".

      I don't give a shit what the source is. The "data dumped" claim is a blatant right-wing lie.

      Not that right-wing / left-wing have anything to do with science.

      In the case of AGW, like with evolution and the tobacco farce, those who seek to undermine science with lies and FUD are indeed right-wing individuals and organizations.

      I asked you why I should take the word of some random poster on Slashdot over a major newspaper which states the scientists themselves have admitted deleting data, I asked where your citation was.

      You don't have to take my word for anything. Educate yourself. And not by reading idiotic propaganda. The data that was deleted was a tiny part of a mere copy, and was deleted to save space during a move. The original data is still fully intact where they licensed it from in the first place.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
  4. My particular facts. by headkase · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Here's how I see it: Something is causing the environment to change. It may not be all us but it is very likely that we are contributing in a significant amount. Individually we need to be responsible to the environment and that means that the one thing in our direct control, our car, is the place to start. Cars are necessary, we don't know what we would do without them. That doesn't mean we can't point to them as an issue. The effect of climate change is that people who do not matter will die. Here in the first world we have technology and more importantly infrastructure to deal with the changes that are happening. In the third world millions of people who are already on the edge will be pushed over by drought. But in the end, they don't contribute to the bottom line anyway and its much easier to drive the SUV and make it someone elses problem.

    --
    Shh.
    1. Re:My particular facts. by thrillseeker · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Something is causing the environment to change. It may not be all us but it is very likely that we are contributing in a significant amount.

      Since you've already decided that people [especially relatively rich Westerners] are the significant contributors to your already decided 'changes' in environment, you're just the kind of 'scientist' being solicited for the 'independent panel'.

    2. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Here's how I see it: Something is causing the environment to change. It may not be all us but it is very likely that we are contributing in a significant amount. Individually we need to be responsible to the environment and that means that the one thing in our direct control, our car, is the place to start. Cars are necessary, we don't know what we would do without them. That doesn't mean we can't point to them as an issue. The effect of climate change is that people who do not matter will die. Here in the first world we have technology and more importantly infrastructure to deal with the changes that are happening. In the third world millions of people who are already on the edge will be pushed over by drought. But in the end, they don't contribute to the bottom line anyway and its much easier to drive the SUV and make it someone elses problem.

      You make numerous claims and have no evidence to back up any of them. Maybe you should be on the review panel!

    3. Re:My particular facts. by headkase · · Score: 1

      Greenhouse gases follow some formulas. We can argue with math all day. Which class in the world is the primary source of greenhouse gases?

      --
      Shh.
    4. Re:My particular facts. by headkase · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      That is why I said "Here is how I see it." See, I was already modded down for holding an opinion. For a place that obstensibly decries censorship slashdot sure provides the means to easily do so with a "-1 Overrated." But please, add your opinion: I'd like to hear it and if we both don't get modded into oblivion perhaps everyone can refine their opinion further as well.

      --
      Shh.
    5. Re:My particular facts. by Rockoon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The sun is the primary source of the far strongest greenhouse gas.. water vapor.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    6. Re:My particular facts. by headkase · · Score: 1

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures. Global warming, you are correct, may be a result of a cycle in the sun itself. I don't know if I fully subscribe to that, I think that perhaps our industrial greenhouse gases were just enough to warm the planet to release further gases such as the methane (THAT is a wicked greenhouse gas) that is now beginning to be released from permafrost that used to never melt.

      --
      Shh.
    7. Re:My particular facts. by obarthelemy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      are we even sure there's a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature ? And, if that's the case, what those gases are and where they come from ?

      I've just listened to a 1-hour program on national radio, with kinda independent climatologists (a French luxury, where many scientists do work for the government), about climate change. These guys don't really seem to agree on anything, with one them them strenuously making the point that earth temperature was mainly linked to solar activity... to the point of making anything else irrelevant.

      --
      The Cloud - because you don't care if your apps and data are up in the air.
    8. Re:My particular facts. by headkase · · Score: 1

      The cause is up in the air and that what is making the issue cloudy. The effects however are not: I live in Canada, we have a lot of permafrost here. That permafrost contains millions of years worth of methane thats been sequestered naturally. It is starting to melt, it never used to. That methane is a vicious greenhouse gas, it makes carbon dioxide look like nothing. With this feedback cycle, we have a practically limitless supply of methane to be released, Canada is going to be a tropical country in fifty years and the US where it is not irrigated will be desert.

      --
      Shh.
    9. Re:My particular facts. by Rockoon · · Score: 4, Informative

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures.

      Wrong, unless you are talking about localized records, in which case that will always be true.

      Its been cooling a bit for the last 8 years... the trend began in 2002. You are either making things up, or repeating what you heard from someone else who was making things up.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    10. Re:My particular facts. by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures.

      This is just false. I have yet to see a report that does not agree that there has been no warming since 1998. And many reports that suggest temperatures have fallen slightly since 1998 (several that suggest they have fallen as much as they rose in the previous 2 or 3 decades of warming).

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    11. Re:My particular facts. by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

      Is that trend statistically significant?

    12. Re:My particular facts. by rlp · · Score: 1, Troll

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures

      Phil Jones has admitted that there has been no global warming since 1995. The CRU was massaging the data to show warming that wasn't there. NASA was cherry picking data from urban heat islands to show warming that wasn't there.

      --
      [Insert pithy quote here]
    13. Re:My particular facts. by ehrichweiss · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Regardless of which side of this debate you are on, you must realize that 10 years doesn't mean anything in this debate AND if we're all honest with ourselves, the past 200 years barely scratch the surface. Both camps will claim(when it is convenient for them) that the longer trends are what is important. Hell, we just recently learned of a 60 year cycle in the climate*** and yet we're still bringing up 10 years as if it means something. Knowing there's a cycle that lasts 60 years should mean we should be looking at the past 2,000 years before we open our mouths...

      I personally am skeptical of both sides. I can see how AGW would be plausible but I can also see that some of what the so-called deniers are claiming is also factually true and being glossed over.

      ***That climate cycle just shifted to its cool pattern in the past year so I'm even more skeptical of the claims of "global warming is causing this bad snow", though it *could* hold some truth..I just think they're declaring a winner before the race has even begun.

      AND to top it off, the AGW side wants non-peer-reviewed science to be counted on their side but if it's not peer-reviewed and it says the opposite then it's considered garbage. Double standards are not the way to go here if they want to be believed.

      --
      0x09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
    14. Re:My particular facts. by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 2, Informative

      There's an interesting toy at this website. It's called the global climate dashboard. You can view Temperature, carbon dioxide, incoming sunlight, sea level, arctic sea ice for various periods, adjusting the siders to zoom in on various decades and so on. (Pay attention to the vertical axis, though)

      The interesting thing is that 1998 stands out like a sore thumb. 1997 was cooler and so was 1999.

      But the naughties? Warmer than 1999. Warmer than 1997. Most of the decade was just slightly cooler than 1998, with very little variability.

    15. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not true. Phil Jones didn't say that "there has been no global warming since 1995".
      See http://www.skepticalscience.com/Did-Phil-Jones-really-say-global-warming-ended-in-1995.html

    16. Re:My particular facts. by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

      Knowing there's a cycle that lasts 60 years should mean we should be looking at the past 2,000 years before we open our mouths...

      I see. You do know that by relying on millennial length climate records, you're just walking into Phil Jones's little trap.

    17. Re:My particular facts. by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1


      And here's a good example of how destructive this AGW debate is becoming. The climate is monstrously complex. I personally don't think we've reached the point that we can argue with sufficient certainty how much different factors contribute to climate change and in what ways, but my opinion is irrelevant. There are lots of reasons to want to cut down on some of the proposed causes of global warming. Cars generate pollution that is bad for us regardless of any effect on the climate. Coal power is probably worse still. Oil is dwindling and we have a world economy founded on it. These reasons alone are grounds for action. But increasingly, everything is becoming focused on AGW. You'll find people arguing till they're blue in the face that CO2 can't have a big effect on the climate and that we should all carry on driving. You'll find others (particularly in the mainstream media) pointing and screaming "denier" at anyone who doesn't consider AGW an accepted and final conclusion. But true skeptics and people who say: "we have to get off oil, we have to develop public transport" are just disappearing in the noise or being attacked by increasingly factionalised groups from both sides.

      Mankind is undeniably wreaking terrible damage on the environment, and I'm speaking as someone who tentatively considers AGW to probably false based on what we know at present. But just like US politics has become a partisan mess where neither of your two parties could ever meet a sane person's policies by themselves, so is the Environment becoming an issue where you choose your faction and get the complete Belief Package to go with it - you're an environmentalist of an anti-environmentalist. Doesn't matter if you believe CO2 doesn't contribute significantly but want to stop Indonesia being deforested to produce palm oil for rich Western countries. Doesn't matter if you know that carbon trading is the only way to save the planet but don't really give a fuck about the extinction of the wild tiger. Pick a partisan side and become part of it - that's all the media allows and I'm including debates like this one on Slashdot. As a skeptic of AGW, I can't count the times people have condemned me for wanting to watch the world's environment ruined by human activity on a range of issues. I'm confident I'll have donated more money and time to environmental groups than most of my critics (IFAW for a start), but AGW is polarising people far more than any issue as complex and rarely understood as this has a right to do so. Much like Republican and Democrat partisanship wreaks havoc on sensible policies in the USA, the hysteria over AGW is growing to the point where it similarly impairs reasoned debate.

      Who's to blame for this? Well companies like Exxon fucked up to begin with by paying lobbyists to undermine AGW proponents meaning any legitimate skeptics today are tarred with that brush repeatedly, even though the oil companies activities in this area were fairly limited and ultimately pathetic and more harmful to themselves than AGW. Then an increasing number of climate scientists decided that in fighting monsters, they'd become some themselves and you got things like contrived hockey sticks and dubious cut off dates for historical trends and leading scientist destroying data rather than hand it over (I mean who destroys data these days? Who? Even my home PC has version control on it these days). If anything, the scientists have done a better job at propaganda than the oil companies did (should be expected, scientists tend to be pretty smart). But science itself, founded on skepticism rather than getting grant money for producing conclusions that suit the popular beliefs? It's getting buried because the media is on a big crusade. Whether or not AGW is correct to a significant extent, it's undeniable that a lot of the mainstream media are loving being noble and preachy on the subject; they continue to shout as if they are revealing a great truth in the face of vast capitalist conspiracies to silence them, ignoring that they've long sinc

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    18. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are correct that water vapor is an important greenhouse gas. However, as you would learn in any basic atmospheric science class, water vapor in the atmosphere acts as a feedback rather than a forcing (like CO2, Methane, and N2O). The distinction is critical, and you can read all about it online.

    19. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a lot of short term - decadal - varability due to dynamics that are not fully understood and some that are (such as El Nino, volcanic events, etc.). Only when you look at the larger picture do clear trends emerge.

    20. Re:My particular facts. by Bemopolis · · Score: 2, Informative

      Here ya go. Now you can't say that you've never seen a report that says that there has been warming since 1998.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    21. Re:My particular facts. by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Its been cooling a bit for the last 8 years... the trend began in 2002.

      Wow! I can't believe anyone seriously uses that argument anymore. This last decade as been the hottest decade on record. Any slight cooling doesn't change that. You make it sound like it must be much cooler than the record books, but 2009 was globally the 5th hottest year on record.

      Have a look at any temperature graph and tell us how significant is your cooling period. Can you spot any other similar cooling pattern in the preceding decades? If so, did those times also prove that it is getting cooler, or did it just bounce back even higher?

    22. Re:My particular facts. by Coryoth · · Score: 1

      Phil Jones has admitted that there has been no global warming since 1995.

      No, he said that there was warming since then but the trend failed to meet a 95% significance level.

      Suppose we have a coin that might be biased. You flip it four times and it comes up heads all four times. A statistician kindly points out that while there's indications of bias, it doesn't meet the 95% significance level. You then say "Aha! The expert says the coin is not biased!". That is of course not what the statistician said -- essentially he said that four tosses is not yet sufficient to conclude that it is biased (at least not at the 95% significance level). Of course a fifth toss that came up heads as well we could make that conclusion (at least at the 95% significance level); alternatively even if the next toss comes up tails it wouldn't take too many further tosses coming up heads to get us to the 95% significance level either. That is, if you collect a little more data (e.g. start from a year a little further back than 1995) and you'll probably have enough data to conclude the trend is real (at the 95% significance level).

    23. Re:My particular facts. by Kral_Blbec · · Score: 1
      Considering that the initial claim was that

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures.

      and the counter claim was

      Its been cooling a bit for the last 8 years

      so out of our sample of 10, we have 8 conflicting with the original claim, then yes I would say that is statistically significant. You could pull back farther into the past (I have no idea what the weather patterns were 40 years ago) but the problem with that is the claim that we dirty Americans with our pollution are causing the change. 100 years ago CO2 emissions were small compared to what they are today. So we have this problem were the weather patterns were doing whatever they were doing 40 years ago. For the sake of simplicity lets say they were going up at a slow rate. It couldn't have been too fast or we would already be baking compared to what it was in 1900. CO2 emissions were rising too, although relative to today, still pretty low. Then a few decades ago CO2 starts climbing rapidly due to global development. CO2 today is likely a few magnitude higher than it was back then, yet despite a spike in CO2 emissions, recent years show a reversal of the heating trend.

      Taken all together, it is a fallacy to disregard recent temperatures as being statistically unimportant because they are a minority. Factoring in other information, such as the amount of CO2 released in each of those years, gives them increased importance. PS here is a nice graph showing CO2 estimates over the last few centuries. I have no idea of its accuracy. I just pulled it from a google search http://www.mongabay.com/images/2006/graphs/co2_global_1750-2000.jpg Interestingly, the same place had another chart showing the past few years and future estimates by country. http://photos.mongabay.com/09/forecast_co2_line.jpg Seems the Chinese are the ones we should be worried about, not us fat Americans with our SUVs.

    24. Re:My particular facts. by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      "You are right that water vapors effect is vastly greater than all the other GHG's combined, but..." and then nothing of real substance other than making the distinction between feedbacks vs forcings.

      The distinction alone is not important.

      The effects of water vapor are so large that even the small uncertainties in its effects are more significant than the effects of all the others combined. The uncertainties are anything but small, because water vapor is responsible for clouds, a poorly understood player in that thing we call climate.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    25. Re:My particular facts. by ehrichweiss · · Score: 1

      I don't know(nor do I care) who Phil Jones is, so no trap for me, sorry. I don't care about the people or the goddamn politics; just the facts, ma'am. You're making assumptions about me(including what I'd actually rely on) that aren't going to help your position. I'm a hardcore skeptic and there's not enough real data/science on either side of the debate to even start a debate, much less to proclaim someone a winner.

      --
      0x09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
    26. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Come on mods!

      Nobody knows for certain who is right, but we know for sure that those who are certain are wrong.

      +9999999999 Right on the fucking money!

      The parent post is probably the most well thought-out post on this page.

    27. Re:My particular facts. by 10101001+10101001 · · Score: 1

      Every year for the last ten years has been setting record temperatures.

      Wrong, unless you are talking about localized records, in which case that will always be true.

      Its been cooling a bit for the last 8 years... the trend began in 2002. You are either making things up, or repeating what you heard from someone else who was making things up.

      Actually, it's more obviously the other way around. Localized records have shown cooling tends in some locations (the US was rather cool in 2009), yet the global trends show overall warming. You can see that in the temperature record since 1880. Now, those cooled areas do match up with some areas with higher temperature, but it's unlikely that your or I were in one of those areas. Besides, the poles are general were more relative warming has occurred, and it's that which is most worrying to people who lives near coastlines.

      --
      Eurohacker European paranoia, gun rights, and h
    28. Re:My particular facts. by IICV · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hey, how about you quote what Phil Jones actually said? It's not hard, and yet somehow the words that came out of his mouth directly contradict what you claim he said.

      B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

      Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

      The trend is positive (i.e, there is generally warming), but it is not significant at the 95% level. Also, although Jones doesn't say this in his answer, if you run the same calculation from 1994 to the present, the trend is significant to the 95% level. And if you run the calculation from 1995 to 2010, when we have that data, I bet you it'll be statistically significant.

      Basically, this is a case of the reporter doing his homework and asking a question that would get the response he wanted. After all, 1995 is kind of weirdly specific, isn't it? Why not, you know, "in the last fifteen years" or "last couple of decades"?

    29. Re:My particular facts. by Bemopolis · · Score: 2, Informative

      are we even sure there's a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature ? And, if that's the case, what those gases are and where they come from?

      Yes. For example, if there were no greenhouse effect at all (that is, if components of the atmosphere were transparent across the EM spectrum), the Earth would be about 35 degrees Celsius cooler than it is given its distance from the Sun. Venus has an atmosphere about equal in mass to our total atmosphere (that is, air + oceans) but composed almost completely of CO2, which we know spectrally is opaque to huge swaths of the infrared spectrum. Because of the absorption of re-radiated solar input, Venus is 400 degrees Celsius hotter than its orbital distance would suggest. Undebatable, or basically not worth the time to debate anyone who disagrees with that assertion.
      The real debate is whether or not the extraction and burning of fossil fuels adds enough CO2 to our atmosphere to noticeably change the climate. Current science yields a consensus on the side of "yes", with some qualifications. Debates among qualified individuals are ongoing on the effects of changes in solar input, the individual validity of the various computer modelling efforts, &c.

      Now, while the scientists argue over those points of qualification, politicians and other idiots use these differences as reasons to sit around with their thumbs up their asses like they want to do anyway. I will add that I have noticed that these are the same people also support the teaching of creationism in schools (teach the controversy!), but oppose the teaching of sex education in schools (you're giving our children mixed messages!). A lot of them also think that displaying the Ten Commandments everywhere will make America wholesome again, just like it was when your melanin count determined which bathroom you could take a crap in, or even earlier when it determined if a person with less melanin could own you. Often this was the order of business in the very states these politicians represent! Draw your own conclusions.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    30. Re:My particular facts. by IICV · · Score: 1

      ... so I'm even more skeptical of the claims of "global warming is causing this bad snow", though it *could* hold some truth..I just think they're declaring a winner before the race has even begun

      I see you are not a climatologist. I'm not either, but here's how it works from my understanding:

      1. The amount of water the air can hold depends on how warm the air is.
      2. The rate of absorption of water into the air over a body of water depends on how warm the air is.
      3. The amount snowfall depends on how much water there is in the air.

      So: warm air over bodies of water absorbs more water, faster. Once winter comes around and the temperature drops, all that extra water gets squeezed out of the air as snow (or rain, if it's not cold enough). Tadaa, an increase in the mean global temperature means more rain and snow in some areas.

      If you actually look at the climate change graphs, you'll see that the mean temperature anomaly (the global warming everyone's talking about) is on the order of half a degree centigrade. Half a degree! Seasonal temperature variations are orders of magnitude greater than that. It certainly won't keep the snow from falling unless you've got very warm winters already, but it'll definitely affect the rate of water absorption into the atmosphere and the water carrying capacity of air.

    31. Re:My particular facts. by chrb · · Score: 2, Informative

      The sun is the primary source of the far strongest greenhouse gas.. water vapor.

      The sun does not emit water vapour. You probably meant to repeat Climate myths: CO2 isn't the most important greenhouse gas and Climate myths: Global warming is down to the Sun, not humans.

    32. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How do you decide whether 10, 60, 200, or even 2000 years is adequate? We need mechanisms with discernible timescales. And the existence of a cycle is meaningless without knowing about its amplitude relative to all other contributions. I just don't often see a careful discussion of these sorts of subtleties among skeptics.

    33. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Yes, let's look at some historical data. As with any modeling problem, the selection of the data is much more critical than the actual model used. Wonder why models only concern themselves with the last 100 or so years? See graphs 2-7 of that link.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    34. Re:My particular facts. by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

      Phil Jones is the embattled head of the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University.He's also a dendrochronologist, and has published a good many historical climate reconstructions.

    35. Re:My particular facts. by chrb · · Score: 1

      Phil Jones has admitted that there has been no global warming since 1995.

      No, he didn't. What he said was that the data since 1995, taken over only that period, showed no warming at some given significance level. The "no warming since 1995" meme is the same as the already discredited global warming stopped in 1998 meme.

      The CRU was massaging the data to show warming that wasn't there. NASA was cherry picking data from urban heat islands to show warming that wasn't there.

      Yes, yes, It's all a conspiracy.

    36. Re:My particular facts. by chrb · · Score: 1

      you must realize that 10 years doesn't mean anything in this debate

      Then you don't understand statistics. 10 years can mean something in this debate, if the data showed statistically significant changes over that period.

      the AGW side wants non-peer-reviewed science to be counted on their side

      No they don't. The best response to this meme I've read to this is here:

      Have you noticed that all of the complaints are from IPCC WGII and WGIII? Not like you know the difference, so let me explain. WGI is about the science of climate change. WGII is about impacts, while WGIII is about how to avert it.

      In all of its reports, the IPCC is explicitly not limited to peer-reviewed materials. They can use, and I quote:

      "Peer reviewed and internationally available scientific technical and socio-economic literature, manuscripts made available for IPCC review and selected non peer-reviewed literature produced by other relevant institutions including industry".

      (I bolded the last part because you'll never see the deniers complaining about that, so I thought it deserved particular emphasis!). They can quote peer-reviewed material, governmental material, NGO material, and industry studies. The reason for this is because not everything on the planet is peer-reviewed. Peer-review is for science.

      WG1 is almost entirely peer-reviewed. It's about science, so that's what you do. WGII is mostly about "news". While a good chunk of what it mentions is peer reviewed, it does include a number of non-peer-reviewed reports. The same goes with WGIII (which has more of a focus on policy and industry).

      Most of the IPCC review effort, likewise, goes into WG1. WGII and WGIII review is much less emphasized. But the real key is that if you find something wrong with WGII or WGIII, you're not attacking the science of climate change, because those reports aren't about science. The science is in WGI. And if you find a non-peer-reviewed report anywhere in the IPCC, it is *not* violating its guidelines. WG1 just avoids them.

      Sadly, some of the people who know better (Watts, I'm looking at you) love to spread misconceptions about all of this.

    37. Re:My particular facts. by ehrichweiss · · Score: 1

      >>the AGW side wants non-peer-reviewed science to be counted on their side >No they don't. The best response to this meme I've read to this is here: Umm, brotha.... The summary clearly states that "grey research" is wanted to be included in the IPCC's reports. Does something about that not mean what it's supposed to?

      --
      0x09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
    38. Re:My particular facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're an idiot.

      Phil Jones has claimed that while there's been very little warming (0.12 degrees celsius), drawing the conclusion that global warming has stopped is unjustified because 1995-now is a very short period (AND 1995 was an exceptionally hot year, and not a particularly fair or useful starting point). Read his interview more thoroughly. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

      They weren't "massaging the data" either. This is EXACTLY what CRU has been reporting all along. If you're trying to cover up a global scam you don't usually write about it in your articles or talk about it to the press.

    39. Re:My particular facts. by ehrichweiss · · Score: 1

      Crap. Formatting again.. My reply start with "Umm, brotha.."

      But this is what the summary says...

      "One area to be examined is whether the panel should incorporate so-called gray literature, a term to describe nonpeer-reviewed science, in its reports. Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals, is crucial to seeking a complete picture of the state of climate science."

      --
      0x09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
    40. Re:My particular facts. by graft · · Score: 1
      The environment IS changing; this is observed fact. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is significantly higher, not only compared to what it has been historically, but going back prehistorically over many ice ages. Isotope ratios easily confirm that most of the increase is due to anthropogenic sources (carbon in the ground in petroleum, etc., differs from carbon in the biosphere). This is a good graph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png

      So: we've already got a massive increase in a significant greenhouse gas, and humans are to blame. Now the ONLY remaining question to consider is: do I believe in greenhouse gases? Well, do ya, punk?

    41. Re:My particular facts. by chrb · · Score: 1

      so-called gray literature, a term to describe nonpeer-reviewed science, in its reports.

      The summary is incorrect. Gray literature refers to "a body of materials that cannot be found easily through conventional channels". It does mean "nonpeer-reviewed science". As the poster I quoted said "WG1 is almost entirely peer-reviewed. It's about science, so that's what you do."

    42. Re:My particular facts. by chrb · · Score: 1

      Correction: It does not mean "nonpeer-reviewed science". Science, by definition, is peer-reviewed. There is no such thing as "nonpeer-reviewed science".

    43. Re:My particular facts. by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      Damn it, why don't people like you spend about an hour reading about climatological processes before spewing yet more idiotic statements?

      Look, water vapor by volume is a STRONGER green house gas. But it is a SHORT-LIVED greenhouse gas. The water cycle is very fast so it takes a lot of energy to increase it appreciably over a long period of time.

      The problem comes with LONG-LIVED greenhouse gases like CO2. It's currently estimated that the carbon cycle on Earth is 100-150 years. There isn't anything absorbing the additional CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere, and the CO2 records are very clearly showing this.

      There ARE more potent greenhouse gases than CO2, but CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a LONG time. Then it's thermodynamics.

      ~X~

      --
      ~X~
    44. Re:My particular facts. by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      Cool pattern for who?

      I think Australia might argue that they weren't in much of a cool pattern. Temperatures in Alaska and Greenland were downright balmy compared to the eastern seaboard.

      Globally temperatures were above the norm in January. This has contributed to increased moisture content of the atmosphere and more precipitation.

      BUT, the main culprits for our weather has been the strong El Nino as well as a strongly negative NAO. These are meteorological events, though they could be influenced by climate change.

      Since climate scales are years to centuries you can't pin any weather event or set of weather events on climate change. Now if this becomes a regular thing over the next decade then you can start the hypothesizing about links to climate change.

      ~X~

      --
      ~X~
    45. Re:My particular facts. by 10101001+10101001 · · Score: 1

      Because everything past a certain time period is extrapolation. That is, while we have had thermometers and have been measuring for the last ~150 years, all the ice cores, tree rings, etc are maped to temperature based upon those thermometer readings. Add to that issues of how much moisture, orbital alignment, solar output changes, and other things might skew the figures of what has so far been in a measured decimal increase in global temperature, and the models want as accurate data as they can to remove the risk of even minor error skewing the results.

      Btw, it's funny how there's so much complaint about the "falseness" of the climate science yet there's a willingness to use the climate scientists' own "raw" ice core data to temperature mapping. What if there's some sort of, oh, hidden agenda by the climate scientists to make the past look warmer? It's all a trick! I want to see the real raw ice core data and create my own appropriate mapping function!

      --
      Eurohacker European paranoia, gun rights, and h
    46. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
      Unfortunately, those thermometers we're relying on aren't all that accurate, especially when looking at fractions of a degree.

      .
      If the ice core data, or bristlecone data is good enough for AGW proponents to use for justifying their conclusions, then the same data - which shows counter - should at least give pause to the conclusions drawn, no?

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    47. Re:My particular facts. by 10101001+10101001 · · Score: 1

      Yes, older thermometers are less reliable and hence temperature data has to be corrected for just like things like urban island effect has to be corrected for today.

      And apparently my joke went over your head. Yes, of course the ice core data is used by AGW proponents (and climatologists in general). The seeming discrepancies in the ice core data, at least in recent time, is well accounted for in models, actually; I don't mean fudged, btw--things like the Medieval Warm Period occurring in Greenland and/or Europe doesn't mean that it was a global event (Souther Hemisphere data indicates it wasn't). It very well might have had to do with the North Atlantic Current.

      The real question to ask is, why is it that current models only map well to current temperatures when man-released CO2 is a significant component in the noted global warming; that is why don't things like methane, natural CO2, solar variance, etc account for nearly all the warming?

      --
      Eurohacker European paranoia, gun rights, and h
    48. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      One point that needs to be made about the accuracy of thermometers. When you're examining how temperature changes over time the absolute accuracy of a thermometer isn't as important as its repeatability. If the thermometer gives the same reading for the same temperature all the time then it will accurately show temperature trends. Accurate thermometers to at least 1/10 a degree were available in the 1700's. The reason the mid-1800's is used for the start of modern day records is that there were finally enough temperature measurements spread widely enough around the globe to make a reasonable estimate of global temperature.

    49. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Of course the sun is the source of probably 99% of the energy on the surface of the Earth. But if there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the average temperature on the surface would be around -18C (0F). Instead it's 32C (58F) warmer because of greenhouse gases.

    50. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yes, older thermometers are less reliable and hence temperature data has to be corrected for just like things like urban island effect has to be corrected for today.

      Unfortunately, it appears the modus operandi is to correct the real rural stations UP to match the urban stations, exactly opposite what any rational person would do.

      And apparently my joke went over your head. Yes, of course the ice core data is used by AGW proponents (and climatologists in general). The seeming discrepancies in the ice core data, at least in recent time, is well accounted for in models, actually; I don't mean fudged, btw--things like the Medieval Warm Period occurring in Greenland and/or Europe doesn't mean that it was a global event (Souther Hemisphere data indicates it wasn't). It very well might have had to do with the North Atlantic Current.

      Sorry, I missed the joke. Currently the Southern hemisphere really isn't seeing warming anywhere near the trends of the Northern hemisphere; perhaps the relative lack of land down South stabilizes the temperatures (being so totally dominated by oceans)? Nevertheless, data is data, and many of the most vocal proponents of AGW appear to have no issues with tossing data that doesn't fit the model, which is pretty much the opposite of what the scientific method calls for.

      The real question to ask is, why is it that current models only map well to current temperatures when man-released CO2 is a significant component in the noted global warming; that is why don't things like methane, natural CO2, solar variance, etc account for nearly all the warming?

      Perhaps because CO2 is something that can be taxed and controlled, as opposed to solar output or ocean currents. There's at least one scientist with a model that appears to tie climate change to the Sun and currents, and does so quite accurately.

      But then, if it's not something we can control then there's no justification for taxation by Governments meaning why finance that type of research?

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    51. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
      Please re-read the link. It's about poor siting of the thermometers. Moving them from open fields to the ends of runways causes a sudden, non-climate shift in temperature upwards. Buildings constructed around the instruments affects them.

      .
      It's not so much the absolute accuracy of the thermometer per se, but the method and location of its use. And unfortunately, more often than not, when a true rural and urban sets if instruments disagree, the rural is "corrected" to mimic the urban, even though it is much more susceptible to urban heat island and other urban-based issues.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    52. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      A recent study* using Anthony Watts surfacestations.org list of well and poorly sited weather stations found that the poorly sited stations actually introduced a slight cooling bias to the record. I guess they overcompensated for the UHI effect. Again, even if a thermometer is located in a poor site it can still measure temperature trends accurately. The events that lead to the UHI effect are usually rather abrupt such as putting up a building. The effect can often be seen in the record for the station and compensated for. I'd love it if you could show me actual scientific evidence that rural (presumably you mean well sited) stations have been corrected to mimic urban (presumably poorly sited) stations.

      *The actual paper is On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record (Menne 2010) [PDF]. A synopsis of the findings can be read here. Of course the study only covers the continental USA, a mere 1.5% of the Earth's surface.

    53. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
      Here you go. In fact, you can see pretty much all of them and that 80%+ have serious problems. The fact such "corrections" happen at all should be troubling.

      .
      As far as the NOAA paper, this should be enlightening.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    54. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      LOL, whatever. Watts responses aren't peer reviewed science yet although I hear he an Pielke Sr. are collaborating on a paper they will try to get published. I'll be interested to see it if it is. Maybe it'll spur more studies like Menne's.

    55. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
      Did you read the links? The NOAA paper you linked used data from Watts that Watts specifically SAID was dubious because it had not been through a quality control pass and scrubbed of errors. Yet they took his data and used it anyway. That's not a concern to you?

      .
      Whatever, indeed...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    56. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Yes I did read them. One shows data from a single weather station and implies the GISS adjustments are inappropriate without supplying a scientific basis for the implication. Another is Watts showing some nice pictures and going off on homogenized data which is something Menne didn't use in his paper.
       

    57. Re:My particular facts. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Actually, I don't think you did read them otherwise you would have seen that Menne used unchecked, unvalidated, partial data from Watts that Watts said not to use as the quality was suspect. And Watts wasn't even notified that his raw, unscrubbed data was being used for a paper by Menne. Yet you'll take Menne's conclusions and ignore the concerns of the man who actually collected the data and disclosed up front the issues and errors contained therein.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    58. Re:My particular facts. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      So what is it. Should climate scientists use the raw data or the massaged data? The data Menne used from Watts was his ratings on the quality of weather stations. I haven't heard that there are problems with that. The actual temperature records were from the NOAA database. Watts was most certainly aware they were using information from his site and dragged his feet on participating long enough that they went ahead and wrote the paper without his input. Is Watts trying to hide is raw unscrubbed data? Does he not want to share it with others? Sounds familiar.

  5. Yay planet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why would the U.N. need to do this? THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED according to Al Gore. Man-made global warming is destroying the planet and the only way to fix it is to be heavily taxed for all use of carbon and give that money to the international banksters. I'm not too clear on how giving trillions to criminals will fix the planet, but if I was smart I probably wouldn't believe the global warming scam at all.

    1. Re:Yay planet by Sulphur · · Score: 1

      Al Gore is an earth quack.

    2. Re:Yay planet by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Well yes, the science is "settled", in that scientists know that the planet is warming, and that human emissions are causing it. These are observed facts. So they have moved on from that to investigating the actual details.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    3. Re:Yay planet by narcc · · Score: 1

      [quote]Well yes, the science is "settled", in that scientists know that the planet is warming, and that human emissions are causing it. These are observed facts.[/quote]

      This is why you're not a scientist.

      Neither "the planet is warming" nor "human emissions are causing it" are "observed facts". They're conclusions drawn from the available data.

      I would recommend that you review an elementary school science text book.

    4. Re:Yay planet by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Neither "the planet is warming" nor "human emissions are causing it" are "observed facts". They're conclusions drawn from the available data.

      You are mistaken. The warming is something scientists have observed directly (a fact), as is the observed fact that the greenhouse gases emitted by humans cause warming. AGW is therefore a fact. But it is also a theory: It explains how and why.

      So again, AGW is both a theory and a fact. It is an observed fact, and a theory which explains said observed facts.

      Just like gravity is a fact and theory. We observe gravity (fact), and we explain how it works (theory).

      Just like evolution is a fact and a theory. We observe evolution (genetic changes in populations of organisms over successive generations), and we explain how it works (theory).

      Thanks for playing, though. Perhaps you should follow your own advice.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    5. Re:Yay planet by narcc · · Score: 1

      Wow, you're a total moron.

      Your little fact/theory diatribe had absolutely nothing to do with my post.

      Before you pickup that science book, I'd recommend a short course in reading comprehension.

    6. Re:Yay planet by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      It had everything to do with your post. You claimed that AGW was not a fact. I explained to you how it is both a fact and a theory.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    7. Re:Yay planet by narcc · · Score: 1

      It had everything to do with your post. You claimed that AGW was not a fact. I explained to you how it is both a fact and a theory.

      Nope. I did not claim AGW was not a fact -- I claimed it wasn't an observed fact. My post clearly explained why.

      Work on that reading comprehension. It will serve you well.

    8. Re:Yay planet by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      It is indeed an observed fact. You fail again.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    9. Re:Yay planet by narcc · · Score: 1

      You do know the difference between observation and inference, right?

      The content of your ridiculous posts suggests that you don't.

      Go do some reading. You've got a loooong way to go.

  6. Let's just invade by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    Can anyone prove that IPCC doesn't have some WMDs? I know I'd like to make sure they don't.

    1. Re:Let's just invade by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Well, they claim that vast land areas would be flooded in not-so-distant future, killing and displacing millions of people, and destroying property on large scale. Sure sounds like WMD to me. FTGJ!

  7. "will be appointed" by uassholes · · Score: 2, Insightful

    By who?

    1. Re:"will be appointed" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seeing as it is the UN, my guess would be the UN member nations.

    2. Re:"will be appointed" by Oligonicella · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah, right. It will be UN bureaucrats. There will be no voting or even asking.

    3. Re:"will be appointed" by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Where's Richard Feynman when you need him?

      Seriously I think that one of the most important lessons from his role on the NASA Challenger commission, is what an outside can accomplish. He did this by asking questions that the insiders never thought of, and took as "givens."

      I would like to see a panel of experts that are not outspoken about global warming, in one way or another. Even if they are not weather experts, they may provide some insight to the scientific methods used.

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    4. Re:"will be appointed" by Bemopolis · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Seriously I think that one of the most important lessons from his role on the NASA Challenger commission, is what an outside[r] can accomplish.

      You left an important word — qualified outsider.

      Even if they are not weather experts, they may provide some insight to the scientific methods used.

      Repeat after me — "Weather is not climate; climate is not weather."

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    5. Re:"will be appointed" by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The scary part is that they are even considering the idea that 'grey literature' might be acceptable. The answer is no, and we already have examples of why not: they are not held to the same standards and are often wrong.

      Seriously, if you need grey literature, what it really means is you need to do more research. That is all.

      --
      Qxe4
  8. How do you know what is real? by microbox · · Score: 3, Informative

    I was thinking the same thing. For example, a political action group could be using this process to strip climate science of the peer-review process. As a consequence, certain ideologically motivated (*cough* laissez-faire capitalists *cough*) institutions will further their actual claim that there isn't scientific consensus.

    However, there was scientific consensus in the 70s.

    So -- how do you know what is real?

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    1. Re:How do you know what is real? by A+beautiful+mind · · Score: 3, Informative
      Thanks for that link. I for one knew about Naomi Oreskes' work as a historian of science, however I didn't know the specifics. I'm 16 minutes in and already I've learned that Lyndon B Johnson not only knew that the carbon dioxide composition of the atmosphere is changing, that we're responsible and that could cause AGW, but publicly said so in 1965:

      This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through...a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.

      I'd suggest to any climate change denial to watch the video.

      --
      It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
      Be yourself no matter what they say
    2. Re:How do you know what is real? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the link, it's a great summary of the history. Naomi Oreskes has done a good job of tracking down the tabacoo scientists and creationists who's anti-science propoganda often gets quoted word for word here on slashdot. Unfortunately her work gets very little MSM attention.

      For those who still think Al Gore invented AGW in 2005, here's a 1958 video from Bell Labs on the subject.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  9. Science vs. Government by Pete+Venkman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The main problem with this issue is that science and government operate very differently. When are people going to realize that governmental panels on climate change will not work as science.

    1. Re:Science vs. Government by Cymurgh · · Score: 1

      The IPCC doesn't do research. It "reviews and assesses" the science in order to "provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences".
      http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm

  10. Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by jfengel · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The report is going to conclude that a bunch of minor errors were made, and does not alter the fundamental conclusions. This is what has been said all along.

    The climate change deniers, who believe it's all part of a massive conspiracy against them, will simply see that as more evidence of the conspiracy. They did not understand the science in the first place, which is why they were able to seize on small errors and blow them out of proportion.

    I suppose it's intended to demonstrate integrity, to develop another report confirming that the errors did indeed exist (and possibly even uncover others). They should even go in with the full intent of finding serious errors, should they exist. But failing to find those errors will not convince anybody who needs convincing. Nor can I imagine what would.

    1. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by russotto · · Score: 1

      The report is going to conclude that a bunch of minor errors were made, and does not alter the fundamental conclusions. This is what has been said all along.

      The climate change deniers, who believe it's all part of a massive conspiracy against them, will simply see that as more evidence of the conspiracy.

      You're stating the conclusion in advance of the investigation and you don't see how that's evidence of, if not conspiracy, something very wrong?

    2. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by JDmetro · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They did not understand the science in the first place, which is why they were able to seize on small errors and blow them out of proportion.
      The climate change supporters always say "they just don't understand the science" so then why don't the climate scientists explain things very nice and clearly instead of making wild claims and picking on the minors and ignoring the majors and all the while refusing to show anyone their raw data.
      It is kind of like not showing your work in math class then whining that the teacher is unfair for accusing you of cheating. You can't prove you did any calculation right if you don't show your work.

    3. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by jfengel · · Score: 1

      I am stating a prediction. An informed guess, based on the fact that the report has been closely scrutinized and no significant errors were found yet, only simple ones. I am not on the investigating team and my prediction carries no weight with them.

      I am also stating the observation that there is no conceivable way for this report to clear the project, since they will simply be regarded as part of the conspiracy if my prediction holds true. There is no way to disprove a conspiracy, so what is the point of the exercise?

    4. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by inthealpine · · Score: 1

      As soon as I hear the term "climate change deniers", or the more common "climate deniers", I know I'm listening to a climate evangelist. The cultist mentality that is coming out of the climate evangelism movement is a huge turn off. I think if the money, power and politics was taken out of climate science it might get better response from masses. Before someone says that 'most' of the masses agree on climate change and it's just a few nut job right wing morons that don't understand science, but somehow at the same time are corporate fat cats with endless bank accounts pushing their addenda...wait...wait...Climate change has been losing steam with the masses for years now. More and more people realize that it is not the end of the world and that it has been cooling not warming in near history. Now if anyone would like to tell me how I'm ignorant, stupid, uninformed, right wing, red neck, republican, Rush Limbaugh, climate denier or whatever insult works best to satisfy you so that you needn't consider my point of view relevant and go on your marry way preaching how carbon is the devil and we will all burn one day for weak indulgences...I need to finish shoveling snow, have at it. **Oh, please point out any spelling or grammatical errors as well, that will show me! If I use the wrong their, there or they're that will definitely show me that I can't have an opinion on 'global-warming-climate-change'. Thanks.**

      --
      "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash"
    5. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by jfengel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Don't care about your race, class, political party, gender, sexual preference, or anything else aside from your ability to evaluate the facts.

      I do care that if you're going to express an opinion on climate change that you have a source other than blogs, and enough science background to evaluate the claims.

      There do exist climate change skeptics. I've met a few. They have a science background and grasp the complexities involved.

      Those who deny it without the science background, believing it to be nothing more than a conspiracy, I term "deniers". Especially those who grasp at any straw, from "it's not happening" to "it's not our fault" to "it's OK", because their concern is less with the reality of the situation than with ensuring that nothing is done because those who want something done are bad people.

      The former are very interesting. The latter are irrelevant.

    6. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by inthealpine · · Score: 1

      I'd have to assume that those that agree with 'climate-change' and don't have a the appropriate science background are irrelevant as well? What you said can work with what I said IF and only IF one condition is met. If I as a non-scientist cannot have an opinion, then you cannot have my money. If that is agreed upon, problem solved.

      --
      "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash"
    7. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by zippthorne · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is that there is a massive conspiracy trying to use climate change as a lever to promote a social agenda. They have insinuated themselves into the process and have tainted some of the research.

      There is also a loose gathering of industrialists trying to use the same thing as a bullet point to help separate you from your dollars. From the greenwashing of GE using their mouthpiece of every show on NBC, to the auto companies with their claims of 200+ mpg hybrids (which, of course, get a "small" portion of their motive energy out-of-band...), to the electric utilities with their "we need you to approve another rate hike because those windmills we haven't installed yet cost twice as much per kW as conventional fuels" plans.

      There are a lot of thumbs leaning on the scales, and it's made it more challenging to separate the nuggets of truth from the nodules of crap that have been surreptitiously dumped into this "perfect storm" of conflicting interests.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    8. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by jfengel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'd have to assume that those that agree with 'climate-change' and don't have a the appropriate science background are irrelevant as well?

      In fact, yes.

      If I as a non-scientist cannot have an opinion, then you cannot have my money.

      As long as we are putting things into everybody's air, we are going to have to come to a conclusion. In a democracy, all those people get a vote, regardless of the fact that their opinions are ill-founded.

      But if you want to actually win an argument, rather than an election, you need to be able to back up your opinion.

    9. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by Coryoth · · Score: 1

      I'd have to assume that those that agree with 'climate-change' and don't have a the appropriate science background are irrelevant as well?

      Yes, people who are convinced and could not be dissuaded by any evidence are just as bad as those who are deniers. Interestingly completely uncritical convinced people are often the shrill annoying ones.

    10. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by inthealpine · · Score: 1

      In a democracy, all those people get a vote, regardless of the fact that their opinions are ill-founded.

      If the congress does not pass a cap and trade bill, then my vote/opinion/money is spoken for (if they did pass a bill the same would be true). Would you agree that the EPA has no right to step in and over rule congress? That is not a trick question, I'm just curious.
      As far as the argument is concerned I've lost by default by your standards because my opinion is immediately irrelevant. I'm not saying you are not listening, you have been thoughtful in your responses. I would encourage you to look at this issue from a non-scientific perspective. When top climate scientists make bold clams that can cost the world trillions of dollars and then we keep seeing non-sense that makes it into these UN reports on climate change or the emails that clearly show questionable ethics, people don't separate the two subjects. Even if these errors were 'small' they are still errors. These were once wildly accepted scientific facts that are now not true. Combine the errors with some poor ethical decisions and people will not trust what science says.

      --
      "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash"
    11. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They're not irrelevant, they're malignant. Just like people who push to have evolution suppressed in schools, if you ignore them then they'll cause harm.

    12. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by commodoresloat · · Score: 1

      The former are very interesting. The latter are irrelevant.

      Unfortunately, they're not irrelevant -- it is sadly the latter rather than the former who are driving the public debate. And somehow the actual consensus of scientists can be dismissed out of hand thanks to a phony "scandal" that was far more political than scientific.

    13. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by Cymurgh · · Score: 1

      I guess they're trying to seem responsive because the IPCC head didn't when this first came up. And because there's a media feeding frenzy over this (well, in the UK at least) where any bogus claim of a global warming science error can get an airing.

      Next time they just have to remind all their Working Group II and III authors and editors that those guidelines they've got on how to use 'gray' literature are actually meant to be followed. And they could use some routines to make sure that, say, a glacier expert looks over everything that is said about glaciers in those 3,000 pages, and not just in the glacier chapter. But it's an open, volunteer-based process, so I guess there are limits to how tight a ship they can run.

    14. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know, whining that you're being insulted with the term "climate deniers" while, scant words later, calling the speakers "cultists" and "climate evangelists" seems hypocritical and makes me take you about as seriously as you take others.

      Just saying: you're not helping what you're decrying.

    15. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      I'd have to assume that those that agree with 'climate-change' and don't have a the appropriate science background are irrelevant as well?

      Not necessarily. Accepting the scientific consensus has been shown to be a great way to move on without having to learn every single little detail yourself. I don't know how to build a plane, but I know from experience that the methods they use to do so work. So even though I'm quite ignorant of the details, I have a stronger case than some nutcase who makes the obviously false claim that it's impossible for an airplane to stay in the air.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    16. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is also a loose gathering of industrialists trying to use the same thing as a bullet point to help separate you from your dollars. From the greenwashing of GE using their mouthpiece of every show on NBC, to the auto companies with their claims of 200+ mpg hybrids (which, of course, get a "small" portion of their motive energy out-of-band...), to the electric utilities with their "we need you to approve another rate hike because those windmills we haven't installed yet cost twice as much per kW as conventional fuels" plans.

      Isn't this what everyone has been asking for? If 200+ mpg hybrids and windmills were economically viable, they would already be the dominant force in the market. The global green consciousness is getting what they asked for, and it costs more. Open your wallet! Don't you care about the planet?

    17. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      As soon as I hear the term "climate change deniers", or the more common "climate deniers", I know I'm listening to a climate evangelist. The cultist mentality that is coming out of the climate evangelism movement is a huge turn off.

      But you are a denier, so what's wrong with being called a denier?

      I think if the money, power and politics was taken out of climate science it might get better response from masses.

      I agree. Tell your right-wing friends to stop spending millions of dollars to spread FUD and lies about the research. Problem solved.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    18. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      The climate change supporters always say "they just don't understand the science" so then why don't the climate scientists explain things very nice and clearly instead of making wild claims and picking on the minors and ignoring the majors and all the while refusing to show anyone their raw data.

      But deniers clearly don't understand the science. Someone who understands the science won't make completely retarded claims. The science has been explained clearly and nicely countless times. The ones making the wild claims are the denialists. You can even access the raw data if you want to! Not that you would understand any of it, of course. And no matter what it shows, you will deny it.

      It is kind of like not showing your work in math class then whining that the teacher is unfair for accusing you of cheating. You can't prove you did any calculation right if you don't show your work.

      Thousands of scientists around the world have independently verified the facts. Just because you are ignorant of the science doesn't mean that the science is wrong, dear denialist.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    19. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      The problem is that there is a massive conspiracy trying to use climate change as a lever to promote a social agenda.

      So what? Just because someone is using scientific facts for something you don't like doesn't mean that said scientific facts are wrong.

      There are a lot of thumbs leaning on the scales, and it's made it more challenging to separate the nuggets of truth from the nodules of crap that have been surreptitiously dumped into this "perfect storm" of conflicting interests.

      No, it's not challenging at all. Just look at the science.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    20. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by JDmetro · · Score: 1

      The science has been explained clearly and nicely countless times.
      Sorry I never watched an "Inconvenient Truth". Or paid myself for carbon credits for that matter. http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/cover031307.htm"

    21. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      You're not getting 200 mpg if you use a gallon of gas and 200kWh to travel it.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    22. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1
      Wow, you deniers will jump at any opportunity to ignore people's points and spew your dishonest talking points, won't you?

      Al Gore is not a scientist. I don't give a shit about his crappy movie.

      Carbon credits suck.

      So what? It's irrelevant to the actual scientific facts, which idiots like you reject because they don't match our right-wing ideology.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    23. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by JDmetro · · Score: 1

      Sorry for starting a silly argument but I live in Northern Canada. Nothing is melting in fact it's freezing and there are 8-10 feet hight drifts of snow in some areas. It's kind of hard to believe some one when they say its melting in my back yard when I look out the window and see otherwise.

    24. Re:Can't imagine what they hope to achieve by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Case in point: Deniers don't understand the science. If you had bothered to check the facts instead of automatically being a denier, you would have known that the reason for the addition cold periods this winter is due to arctic winds reaching new areas. The globe as a whole, on the other hand, is warmer than ever.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
  11. 2 big problems in that report by RingDev · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The 2 big issues I've heard about that report are the citing of a non-peer reviewed source for the Himilaya glacier and an incorrectly phrased line about flooding in the Netherlands (propertly cited, just incorrectly stated)

    Now those two mistakes should not be in a paper from such a highly regarded organization, but...

    THE PAPER WAS OVER 3000 PAGES LONG.

    If I were to write a 3000+ page paper and only had 2 significant mistakes in it, I would be freaking estatic! I mean really, we are humans, there are going to be mistakes in everything we do. That the IPCC has been so responsive in retracting the parts of the paper that have not stood up to review and that out of such a huge document so few mistakes have been reported, shouldn't we instead see this as a great work?

    -Rick

    --
    "Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
    1. Re:2 big problems in that report by Rockoon · · Score: 0

      THE PAPER WAS OVER 3000 PAGES LONG.

      The dramatization of the number of pages is mooted by the dramatization of the number of peer reviewers, which is "thousands of scientists"

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    2. Re:2 big problems in that report by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Um, so those are the only two errors or just a couple that were really obvious? I think we both know the answer to that question.

      Given that the entire thing is based on bad data (if it weren't it would have been released), I'm not even sure why we're still discussing this. It's a sham.

    3. Re:2 big problems in that report by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Insightful

      When I find two major errors in such an important report that was supposedly written, edited, and reviewed by some of the top experts in the world - I wonder what other mistakes slipped by. Checking your writeup against your sources and verifying those sources is something even Wikipedia enforces.
       
      I'm doubly suspicious when it takes the people derided as 'deniers' to find the errors, but the people who support the conclusions can't be bothered to take time out of their cheerleading to double check the document themselves. That smells of religion, not science.

    4. Re:2 big problems in that report by uassholes · · Score: 1

      Two?

      You're drinking the wrong Kool-Aid

    5. Re:2 big problems in that report by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A little mistake is fine. Referencing a WWF report is not a little mistake. Arguing that "gray literature" is required to get an accurate picture basically blows your credibility.

    6. Re:2 big problems in that report by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Working group 2 of the IPCC seems to have made some embarrassing mistakes. Upon seeing the letter in Science, I wondered why I'd never noticed these ludicrous statements before. Then I realized that the mistakes weren't in working group 1 report, which is all I'd ever bothered to read. Here's what each working group does:

      The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

      The main topics assessed by WG I include: changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere; observed changes in air, land and ocean temperatures, rainfall, glaciers and ice sheets, oceans and sea level; historical and paleoclimatic perspective on climate change; biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, gases and aerosols; satellite data and other data; climate models; climate projections, causes and attribution of climate change.

      The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

      It also takes into consideration the inter-relationship between vulnerability, adaptation and sustainable development. The assessed information is considered by sectors (water resources; ecosystems; food & forests; coastal systems; industry; human health) and regions (Africa; Asia; Australia & New Zealand; Europe; Latin America; North America; Polar Regions; Small Islands).

      The wild claim that "glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world", the 2350/2035 typo, confusion of Himalayan glacier area with the worldwide total, and reliance on non-peer-reviewed source material all occurred in a single paragraph(!) in the WG2 report (section 10.6.2, paragraph 2).

      Statements in the WG1 report regarding glaciers, on the other hand, accurately reflect conclusions in the peer-reviewed literature.

      Due to my obsession with the physical sciences, I'd never even realized that other working group reports existed. Perhaps other scientists reacted in a similar fashion, which might be why such an absurd cluster of errors went undetected for so long...

    7. Re:2 big problems in that report by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's funny seeing how the goal posts keep changing. Not long ago objections to parts of the report was labeled Woodo-Science by the ipcc-chief. Now there are 2 minor errors.

      The assumption that developing countries near the Equator will be most negatively affected is based on error, as well as the assumption that climate-change has caused more extreme-weather. These are currently not admitted as actual errors, but when they do the AGW house of cards well really start to come down,

    8. Re:2 big problems in that report by Hawthorne01 · · Score: 1

      If I were to write a 3000+ page paper and only had 2 significant mistakes in it, I would be freaking estatic!

      So, using that standard, if I wrote a 3000+ page paper on gravity, and made only one error on it, say, that gravity has no effect on people who fall from heights of 250 meters or higher, would you, on that basis, be willing to take a swan dive off the Empire State Building ? I mean, it's only ONE error in a 3000+ page report, what could possibly go wrong?

      In the same way, I'm not prepared to ruin the economy of the entire planet because of a few, very significant errors in a report that says we should shut down any industrial progress for the next 100 years just so the glaciers on K2 can stay where they are.

      --
      "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
    9. Re:2 big problems in that report by Cymurgh · · Score: 2, Informative

      The 'deniers' didn't find the Himalaya glacier error. It was found by a glacier expert, Georg Kaser, who happens to be one of the lead authors of the snow-and-ice chapter in vol. 1 of the IPCC report, which deals with the physical science basis for man-made climate change. (No errors found there.) The error was in vol. 2, which deals with the impacts of climate change, way down on p. 493 in a 'case study' inside the chapter on Asia, which apparently was not reviewed by any glacier expert.

      The other error -- regarding the percentage of the Netherlands that is below sea level -- came from no lesser a source than the Dutch government (oops).

    10. Re:2 big problems in that report by commodoresloat · · Score: 1

      So the entire complaint about this report is actually based on mistakes that weren't found rather than the two that actually were? And these are errors found by people specifically looking for errors in the report in order to discredit it; this was the best they could do??

    11. Re:2 big problems in that report by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      "A little mistake is fine, but..."

      Except that it is not claimed that those are "little" mistakes.

      In fact the parent called it "significant" mistakes.

      The argument is that 2 mistakes in a 3000 page long document is not bad at all; it means 99.9 % of the findings in the report are not mistakes.

    12. Re:2 big problems in that report by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      The more time passes, the more errors come out. The biggest error, in my opinion, is citing works that aren't particularly reliable. WGII has WWF reports cited all over the place. There is no need for this, and it causes errors (another one you haven't mentioned is a clearly unjustified, and wrong, estimate of the effect of global warming on the amazonian rainforest). You can easily verify this for yourself, open a chapter in WGII and do a search for WWF, and you will see all the citations. This is bad science.

      On the other hand, WGI doesn't cite the WWF (anywhere that I can find), which isn't surprising since I always felt it was better written. Different parts of the IPCC report are of different quality, which also isn't surprising since they were written by different people. In my opinion the Summary For Policy Makers is the worst infractor, since its purpose is propaganda instead of accurately being a summary of the underlying information (ie, different graphs are used that make warming appear more scary, they leave out a lot of the uncertainty).

      --
      Qxe4
    13. Re:2 big problems in that report by chrb · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Um, so those are the only two errors or just a couple that were really obvious?

      If the errors were really so obvious, then why did it take two years for anyone to notice them?

    14. Re:2 big problems in that report by wytcld · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals, is crucial to seeking a complete picture of the state of climate science.

      Ceoyouo confuses the camps. The "scientists" who say we need gray literature are those who produce the gray literature. The gray literature is almost entirely supportive of the denialist political camp. The UN would panel, if it leaves out the gray literature, will most likely end up fully supporting the IPCC's reports, aside from the small corrections already noted as necessary such as the estimate of the speed of glacial melting in the Himalayas, which in that case crept in from gray literature itself (although from bad pop reporting rather than denialist pseudo-science).

      So: The IPCC would prefer to exclude gray literature, and regrets it wasn't 100% successful in its prior attempt to do so (e.g. the Himalayan thing). Those opposed to the IPCC, most of whom haven't been able to publish in peer-reviewed journals, insist that their gray literature - largely papers published by think tanks funded by oil interests, outside of the recognized scientific press - should be taken into account. They believe that the peers who peer review are all in on the conspiracy, so that any limitation to peer-reviewed literature misses the "truth" of how nearly everyone in academia is part of a vast effort to bring One World Government, an agenda which includes fostering panic and fear so that the population turns over control of the economic system to bureaucrats, whom it is presumed most scientists have a deep, instinctual, natural love of.

      What do you say, scientists? I know a few of you are reading this. You love bureaucrats, don't you? Ha.

      --
      "with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
    15. Re:2 big problems in that report by chrb · · Score: 1

      Checking your writeup against your sources and verifying those sources is something even Wikipedia enforces.

      The standards of inclusion in the IPCC reports are much higher than Wikipedia. There are no non-peer reviewed articles quoted in the IPCC science report. However, the other reports are not limited to peer reviewed journals, but can instead use "Peer reviewed and internationally available scientific technical and socio-economic literature, manuscripts made available for IPCC review and selected non peer-reviewed literature produced by other relevant institutions including industry".

      I'm doubly suspicious when it takes the people derided as 'deniers' to find the errors

      Not true. The Himalayas mistake was mainly discovered by J. Graham Cogley, professor of geography at Trent University, who has said "I don't think it ought to affect the credibility of the edifice as a whole".

    16. Re:2 big problems in that report by graft · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What bad data are you talking about? The temperature record? The CO2 record? Both of those are fairly open datasets. Are you talking about data from, say, 1986 not being available? Is that really surprising? How much stuff do you have left from 1986? Scientists aren't always completely diligent about keeping around old data, little imagining that 20 years later some jackass who thinks they're guilty of (20-year sustained and multiply sourced) conspiracy is going to come around and ask for it.

    17. Re:2 big problems in that report by fritsd · · Score: 1

      The other error -- regarding the percentage of the Netherlands that is below sea level -- came from no lesser a source than the Dutch government [www.pbl.nl] (oops).

      Yes, I found that one hilarious. The error was that it was reported that 55% of the country would be below sea level, but in fact the original report stated 55% of the country at risk of floods, and only 26% of the country under water.
      Only 26%
      We're talking here about the 26% most densely populated part of the 16th richest country in the world, the 6th largest exporter of the world (after China, Germany, USA, Japan and France), being *under water*.
      When the country looks like this, most of The Hague and Utrecht will still be dry, but Rotterdam (3rd largest port in the world after Shanghai and Singapore) and Amsterdam (famous for its tourism) will have to make radical changes in industrial and living areas.
      Sure, nobody dies because it's a slow process, but that's an expensive loss in world transport and trade.

      --
      To be, or not to be: isn't that quite logical, Slashdot Beta?
    18. Re:2 big problems in that report by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      I'm not confused, but you've obviously got a pretty strong political agenda. This is a scientific issue. The gray literature supports BOTH "camps." That's because anybody who wants to can write it. Elements of both sides would also like to have it treated as some kind of evidence. From members of the non-scientific community that's not really surprising. From members of the scientific community it is.

    19. Re:2 big problems in that report by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We have seen what Hogan did to the WTC. I wouldn't dismiss the WWF so lightly.

    20. Re:2 big problems in that report by jhol13 · · Score: 1

      You are missing the point entirely, apparently on purpose.

      The point is, that the "2037" was put there while knowing it is crap. Is there other selected articles or maybe just a bit "adjusted" ones?

    21. Re:2 big problems in that report by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 1

      If you take the credits for a 3000+ page paper, yet keep pitching its blatantly wrong executive summary for years, you're nothing but a fraud. Or, writing a 3000+ page paper only to arrive at erroneous conclusions is a case of mind-bogglingly stubborn stupidity.

      --
      I'm not a coward by any name.
  12. Crucial means CRUCIAL. by Tsar · · Score: 1

    "Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals, is crucial to seeking a complete picture of the state of climate science."

    If it's crucial, it should be peer-reviewed. If no one has time to peer-review the material, it shouldn't be part of the basis for multi-trillion-dollar policy decisions. How is that non-obvious?

  13. Peer review vs. "gray literature" by farlukar · · Score: 1

    Peer review indeed isn't a guarantee for proper science if easily-debunkable crap like this can get through peer review.

    --
    Ceci n'est pas une .sig
    1. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by Pax681 · · Score: 1

      WOW.. stunningly good links my friend......

      i have a friend who is a professor of physics at the University of Edinburgh who has helped me understand quantum and string theory to a better extent after watching a few programs on them and wanting to know more.(i am by far NOT a quantum physicist or string theorist but i can understand a little more in depth than i previously did as he explains things so well to the layman)

      si i am gonna bookmark these and sync them to my N900 and show them to him and get him to explain more. because if this FUNDAMENTAL mechanism of global warming is shown to be a bunch of air blown the the anal regions it then follows that the theory it backs is also a load of hot anal air...

    2. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Sure, but it's a lot better than just believing anything somebody at the WWF decides to write.

    3. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it's so easy then do a debunking of it and post it here so we can peer-review it.

    4. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      arxiv is not peer reviewed. It's a preprint server.

    5. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by farlukar · · Score: 1

      Holy blap, what part of "crap" don't you understand?

      A LaTeX document with lots of formulas doesn't automagically mean proper science, you know.

      See this and this.
      And thrown in for good measure: The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus

      --
      Ceci n'est pas une .sig
    6. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by Pax681 · · Score: 1

      a professor at the University of Edinburgh DOES = good science and for things like this... i think i'll ask someone i KNOW to be an expert.... good idea don't you think?

    7. Re:Peer review vs. "gray literature" by farlukar · · Score: 1

      a professor at the University of Edinburgh DOES = good science and for things like this... i think i'll ask someone i KNOW to be an expert.... good idea don't you think?

      Come to think of it, it probably is a good idea. The more people get to know about this guy, the better.

      --
      Ceci n'est pas une .sig
  14. Gray literature by s-whs · · Score: 1, Informative

    One area to be examined is whether the panel should incorporate so-called gray literature, a term to describe nonpeer-reviewed science, in its reports. Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals,

    The whole point of peer reviewed literature is that you can accept it as being probably well researched, having assumptions that are probably correct. If you want to include non-peer reviewed research you cannot scan the article, and especially not its conclusions, but you will have to check everything! So you start doing your own peer-reviewing turning them in peer-reviewed articles. If that's not done by someone qualified, having some non-peer reviewed 'respected research' included is dangerous in that it may contaminate good research with crappy stuff.

    And if this 'respected research' is worth something, it's probably already used/cited in peer reviewed articles I would imagine.

    In any event, the non-believers have a small success. From mistakes in a report (everyone makes mistakes), results a scan of more literature. Will that change anything? Almost certainly not. The uncertainties in climate models are known, but what's not in doubt (by real scientists) is that there is change (at least partially man-made) and besides the crackpots or people who just don't give a damn [ I remember an interview in a dutch TV programme ca. 2004 IIRC with someone senior in the US government who simply said: If other countries want to clean up the air, fine, we're not going to do it because it would hurt our economy ], this seems to serve no-one. I.e. it's more like politics.

  15. Sure, but... by srussia · · Score: 1

    IPRIPCC would be such a badass acronym!

    --
    Set your phasers on "funky"!
  16. you're giving it too much creditibility by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 1

    although there is no scientific consensus to that effect.

    It has nothing to do with "concensus", there's no belief that the Himalayas are going to melt in the next 25 years. It was a misquote by someone which ended up being quoted as fact through an obnoxious game of "telephone".

    That tells you how much credibility to give to the rest of it.

  17. Novel concept by andoman2000 · · Score: 1

    Wow an independent panel to investigate a independent panel that's a novel concept

  18. Debate the Solution, not the Problem by dwguenther · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's good that another review has been announced in order to offset the political hype, but it's discouraging that there was political attacks on the science to begin with. As the article points out, the controversy has essentially been about a single wrong number in the IPCC report, which itself is a summary of over 10,000 peer-reviewed papers published over the last three or four decades. Criticism of this single error has only gained traction because of pointless repetition by critics who stand to make some profit over creating controversy.
    The discussions and debate should be focused on policy, not on the science. We have already made our best effort at determining whether there is a problem. Now we need to determine what to do about it.

    1. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by uassholes · · Score: 3, Informative

      That is typical. In other words; "Don't argue with us; we are right. Case closed".

      There were no political attacks on the science. There were political attacks on the politics. If you can't keep those two straight, then it's no wonder that you are an acolyte in the Church Of Global Warming.

      Maybe this will help (http://www.ocregister.com/common/printer/view.php?db=ocregister&id=234092):

      ClimateGate - This scandal began the latest round of revelations when thousands of leaked documents from Britain's East Anglia Climate Research Unit showed systematic suppression and discrediting of climate skeptics' views and discarding of temperature data, suggesting a bias for making the case for warming. Why do such a thing if, as global warming defenders contend, the "science is settled?"

      FOIGate - The British government has since determined someone at East Anglia committed a crime by refusing to release global warming documents sought in 95 Freedom of Information Act requests. The CRU is one of three international agencies compiling global temperature data. If their stuff's so solid, why the secrecy?

      ChinaGate - An investigation by the U.K.'s left-leaning Guardian newspaper found evidence that Chinese weather station measurements not only were seriously flawed, but couldn't be located. "Where exactly are 42 weather monitoring stations in remote parts of rural China?" the paper asked. The paper's investigation also couldn't find corroboration of what Chinese scientists turned over to American scientists, leaving unanswered, "how much of the warming seen in recent decades is due to the local effects of spreading cities, rather than global warming?" The Guardian contends that researchers covered up the missing data for years.

      HimalayaGate - An Indian climate official admitted in January that, as lead author of the IPCC's Asian report, he intentionally exaggerated when claiming Himalayan glaciers would melt away by 2035 in order to prod governments into action. This fraudulent claim was not based on scientific research or peer-reviewed. Instead it was originally advanced by a researcher, since hired by a global warming research organization, who later admitted it was "speculation" lifted from a popular magazine. This political, not scientific, motivation at least got some researcher funded.

      PachauriGate - Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman who accepted with Al Gore the Nobel Prize for scaring people witless, at first defended the Himalaya melting scenario. Critics, he said, practiced "voodoo science." After the melting-scam perpetrator 'fessed up, Pachauri admitted to making a mistake. But, he insisted, we still should trust him.

      PachauriGate II - Pachauri also claimed he didn't know before the 192-nation climate summit meeting in Copenhagen in December that the bogus Himalayan glacier claim was sheer speculation. But the London Times reported that a prominent science journalist said he had pointed out those errors in several e-mails and discussions to Pachauri, who "decided to overlook it." Stonewalling? Cover up? Pachauri says he was "preoccupied." Well, no sense spoiling the Copenhagen party, where countries like Pachauri's India hoped to wrench billions from countries like the United States to combat global warming's melting glaciers. Now there are calls for Pachauri's resignation.

      SternGate - One excuse for imposing worldwide climate crackdown has been the U.K.'s 2006 Stern Report, an economic doomsday prediction commissioned by the government. Now the U.K. Telegraph reports that quietly after publication "some of these predictions had been watered down because the scientific evidence on which they were based could not be verified." Among original claims now deleted were that northwest Australia has had stronger typhoons in recent decades, and that southern Australia lost rainfall because of rising ocean temperatures. Exaggerated claims get headlines. Later, news reporters disclose th

    2. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Last winter we had 2 inch of snow, this we had 20. that means we'll have 200 inches of snow the next winter and 2000 after that. This is clearly a true and well determined problem, we can't afford to wait until next winter before we implement a multi billion$ anti-snow policy. We also should not waste any more money on any further studies of the predicted snow depth because I already have a consensus that it's a real problem.

      If you disagree with me you don't understand the science or hold stock in snow-removal services. And those are the only possibilities, there's no one that cares about truth anymore, there's only monetarily motivated people and stupid people in this world.

    3. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by dwguenther · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is also typical. Attack the science with quotes from an opinion column that cites other opinion columns that make up stories and repeat falsehoods until they look like truth. Thank goodness most national governments aren't run by bloggers, so we can actually get something done.

    4. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by izomiac · · Score: 1

      Where is this science under attack that you speak of? I only see accusations of politics being disguised as science. Obviously there is great incentive for this because science, unlike politics, is shielded from criticism by non-experts. "Science" that is difficult to falsify with RCTs is particularly vulnerable to this type of manipulation.

      The IPCC report isn't science, it's politics. They don't exactly try to hide that fact, "IP" stands for "International Panel", it's founded by the UN, and does no original research. You don't need to be a scientist to verify the origin of citations, and the people have a right to criticize politics.

    5. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I am so not replying to all of those. Come on, man. This is like trying to be right because you scream the loudest.

      I stopped reading after this one, though, because...

      ClimateGate - This scandal began the latest round of revelations when thousands of leaked documents from Britain's East Anglia Climate Research Unit showed systematic suppression and discrediting of climate skeptics' views and discarding of temperature data, suggesting a bias for making the case for warming. Why do such a thing if, as global warming defenders contend, the "science is settled?"

      ... okay, let me answer that question. They were discrediting sceptics' views because scientific organizations exist to discredit the nonsense that those idiots put out. I'm not saying all sceptics are idiots, but global warming opponents in general do bravely lead the way in spouting non-scientific absurdities. They were discarding temperature data because some data is not accurate, useful or unbiased and NEEDS to be discarded. Like weather stations that used to be suitably far away from a city but aren't anymore due to urbanization (which, had they not filtered those out, would actually have meant a bias towards higher temperatures, mind you). In order to get a good and clear report of the actual temperatures, you NEED to strictly impose restrictions on which stations you use for your data. This is called doing science.

      ClimateGate was one gigantic manufactured controversy and it GENUINELY saddens me that there are so many people who fall for this.

    6. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      As the article points out, the controversy has essentially been about a single wrong number in the IPCC report, which itself is a summary of over 10,000 peer-reviewed papers published over the last three or four decades.

      It wasn't one number. It was several numbers in the section, and the conclusion. You can read it in the IPCC report (and it's not hard to find if you go to their website).

      But that wasn't what made people upset, the scary thing was it wasn't a conclusion from a peer reviewed paper. You call the IPCC report a summary of over 10,000 peer-reviewed papers, but it turns out, they've been citing non-peer reviewed papers all over the place (mainly in WGII, actually). You can verify this for yourself, easily, by opening any chapter in WGII and doing a search for WWF. This won't find all of them, but it will find a lot.

      The discussions and debate should be focused on policy, not on the science.

      How about we start with the policy of only including peer reviewed articles in the IPCC report? Is that too much to ask?

      --
      Qxe4
    7. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Nice straw man there. You even fooled some gullible moderator into modding your nonsensical drivel up. Good job.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    8. Re:Debate the Solution, not the Problem by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      There were no political attacks on the science. There were political attacks on the politics.

      No, right-wing demagogues are attacking the science. The science clearly shows man-made global warming.

      Maybe this will help

      The Gish Gallop. How predictable and creationist-like. Creationists, AGW deniers and tobacco deniers - all a bunch of right-wing morons.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
  19. Northwest Passage by headkase · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Remember what used to be the mythical North-West Passage? I hope to be wrong but there is now ocean where you can sail ships through that used to be a global ice cap.

    --
    Shh.
    1. Re:Northwest Passage by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

      Apparently you're off topic. Perhaps you might make wild speculations about a conspiracy among climate scientists, and make up for the karmic loss.

    2. Re:Northwest Passage by Coryoth · · Score: 1

      We don't have records about ships making it through then, but it was warmer then than it is now in the more northern and arctic regions and we know for a fact that the vikings had habitable settlements where it is all frozen ice now and you can't grow anything

      Your statement about the Norse settlements in Greenland is patently false (unless by "now" you mean "February - March" as opposed to "this century"). The locations of the Norse settlements are known. Google maps and satellite photos can come to out aid. in determining how ice covered they are:

      Consider these Googlemaps images of the sites for the Western and Eastern Settlements:
       
        Eastern settlement area, and Eastern settlement map
        Western settlement area, and Western settlement map.
       
      Just for reference, here is a zoom of the area of the Brattahlid and Gardar farms (two of the largest/richest farms), and a zoom of the Sandnes farm area from the Western settlement.

      Want more? How abut on the ground photos of the ruins?
      Gardar ruins
      Bratthlid ruins
      Hvalsey church

      Doesn't look very "ice-covered" to me, and there seems to be quite a bit growing, what with those ruins sitting amidst tall green grass and wildflowers ...

    3. Re:Northwest Passage by Tuoqui · · Score: 1

      How much has the earth's axial tilt changed in the past hundred years... That could be contributing to the melting there (as well as contributing to more ice being made on Antarctica despite chunks coming off like they always do).

      --
      09F911029D74E35BD84156C5635688C0
      +2 Troll is Slashdot's way of saying groupthink is confused
  20. Blame Canada by headkase · · Score: 1

    Because not matter the cause of the blip we now have a self-reinforcing cycle of methane release from our permafrost that will have effects. I'm all for our winters not sucking as much as they used to, I just hope the rest of the world fares as well.

    --
    Shh.
  21. As Independent as Philip Campbell? by Iyonesco · · Score: 3, Informative

    Philip Campbell was one of the "scientists" selected to join the "independent" review panel for the UEA leaks. He later had to step down when it was revealed that he had already made up his mind before any review:

    http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/science_technology/aposclimategateapos+review+member+resigns/3536642

    I'm sure he was replaced by somebody equally independent and impartial and that we can expect the same level of impartiality from the UN's review of the IPCC. This is nothing but a waste of taxpayer's money.

  22. Wrong response by A+beautiful+mind · · Score: 1, Insightful

    There should be no panel to investigate stuff, as there was nothing wrong with the report that covers the physical science and there were only a small number of minor mistakes in WG3's document (that is not about the science basis for AGW).

    Setting up a panel is exactly the wrong response, because it lends credibility to the whackjobs. What the scientific community needs is better PR and stating that essentially those who think AGW is not happening are gullible, misguided people, whackjobs and paid ex-tobacco lobbyists.

    --
    It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
    Be yourself no matter what they say
    1. Re:Wrong response by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I totally agree.

      All science should be conducted according to this method. Tobacco would still be good for your health, the earth would be in the center of the universe and god would be watching over us to make sure we live happily and get into heaven. Everything would be so much better, you've reestablished my faith in mankind!

    2. Re:Wrong response by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What the scientific community needs is better PR and stating that essentially those who think AGW is not happening are gullible, misguided people, whackjobs and paid ex-tobacco lobbyists.

      Ah, propaganda! Is there anything you can't do?

  23. Change the name of the panel by benjto · · Score: 2, Interesting

    IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    The climate has been changing for hundreds of thousands of years. But to me the name suggests there is some kind of unprecedented change to the climate that we are now tasked to study. Doesn't that prejudice the findings? What if (just a hypothesis) the data shows that the climate is not going through any kind of change that is out of line with historical patterns of change. The conclusion would be that the current dynamics of that climate to not represent a "macro" change in the climates behavior.

    Why not name the panel the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Monitoring? Let the data suggest the conclusion, not the panel name.

    1. Re:Change the name of the panel by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

      Climate is a chaotic, nonlinear system. In that context, it may or may not even make sense to state whether
      what is going on now is consistent with past climate variation. The question assumes that you can say something
      accurate about past climate variations, other than something as vague as: Well it seems to sometimes be random within these general bounds, and sometimes seems to have an attractor in its behaviour. What does it even mean to say that current changes are "consistent" or "inconsistent" with previous chaotic behaviour?

      If you go to great enough detail, all climate changes at any time are unprecedented, in that their rates of change, and peaks and valleys, are different each time.

      If the panel name was trying to emphasize unprecedented change, perhaps it would be called the
      "Intergovernmental Panel on Unprecedented Climate Change".

      p.s. Minor fix: The climate has been changing for thousands of millions of years, not just hundreds of thousands.

      --

      Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    2. Re:Change the name of the panel by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      The climate has been changing for hundreds of thousands of years. But to me the name suggests there is some kind of unprecedented change to the climate that we are now tasked to study. Doesn't that prejudice the findings?

      No, the findings were there before the panel was formed.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
  24. I am for this if... by Gonoff · · Score: 1
    This panel needs to take in all information that has not been tainted by any of the following.
    • experts in other fields (economics, law, journalism etc)
    • Big business (banks, oil companies etc)
    • Politicians (left, liberal or right wing)
    • Paid pressure groups and individuals.
    • The seriously ignorant who have irrelevant axes to grind
    --
    I'll see your Constitution and raise you a Queen.
  25. Premis Fail by KalvinB · · Score: 1

    When your premis is false your entire argument is false no matter how long winded your argument is.

    Claiming that 2 significant mistakes is no big deal is like claiming that if you built a bridge out of a million stones and only two in the base were severely damaged you'd be happy. The bridge collapsed. Why are you happy?

  26. UN should create panel to review skeptic funding by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

    In the name of balance, it would be good also if a financial audit panel were created to
    review and disclose in a public report the funding sources and amounts which
    prominent climate change skeptics and denier-advocates have received.

    I'm not accusing anyone. I just think it is fair that, as part of the vitally important public debate,
      we should know who is behind the various positions we are hearing on this issue.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
  27. So let's see here... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The panel concludes that there were only minor errors with the IPCC, and AGW is still an issue. AGW proponents cheer, saying "I told you so!" AGW detractors claim conspiracy, it's politics, and AGW is still not a problem, or that throwing money at it won't solve it.

    The panel concludes that there are serious problems with the IPCC and that AGW really isn't an issue. AGW detractors cheer, saying that's what they thought all along. AGW proponents claim there is a conspiracy, it's politics, and the problem is still real.

  28. Unprecedentedness does not matter by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

    Also, whether some climate change is unprecedented or not is logically unconnected
    with the three questions of:

    1. Are we a substantial cause of the current change trends
    2. Should we try to alter the current change trends
    3. Can we alter the current change trends

    Humans and current species have a particular climate regime we are used to and thrive
    in. The questions are about our role in moving climate out of that comfort zone, and whether
    we are smart and capable and collectively motivated enough to reverse the trend and keep
    it within the comfort zone of the currently constituted biosphere/current species and their
    current habitats, including our own, on the planet.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
  29. The Main Problem with these dang Climatologists... by Vitriol+Angst · · Score: 2, Funny

    ... if they want people to take their science seriously, they've got to quit getting misquoted in Oil Company backed blogs and media. I mean, that stupid nonsense about their article on the world freezing over from that magazine they had nothing to do with, is a great example of why this controversy still exists. Even when people point out that it's a bogus and that science can always change -- it gets repeated over and over again. What's up with that, Climatologists? Your opinions are only like a few thousand, and there are many more non-climatologists getting quoted on this controversy -- you can't even beat out a Russian Economic Think tank that gets money from US oil concerns.

    Heck, the LOL-Cat has more press savvy than you guys.

    Instead of 100% of you Climate Scientists lying for that $10,000 grant, and your Grad Students being in on this huge global conspiracy -- you should go out and earn 10 times more with your math skills on Day Trading, get a lot of money, and learn how to rent-to-own press outlets. Maybe some of your grant money would be better spent on advertisements on CNN rather than all this blinking electronic equipment.

    Stupid scientists!

    --
    >>"ad space available -- low rates!!!"
  30. MOD PARENT UP by commodoresloat · · Score: 1

    This is the problem, people get away with blatantly false claims because they are able to name names and quote "facts" that they read in a political article by a non-scientist, even if their "facts" are totally wrong. And then a few emails taken out of context confirm that any "pro-global-warming" scientists can be dismissed out of hand because of an alleged global warming conspiracy. It's a pretty cheap logical trick, but the sad thing is it works over and over.

  31. The CRU emails show show no such thing. by microbox · · Score: 2, Informative

    There actually are independent scientists, and as the CRU emails show, they have been disparaged and shut up at every possible point

    The CRU emails show show no such thing.

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
  32. The Collapse of Reason by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

    In watching this spectacle, this faux debacle unfold, I am struck that most of what is being said is devoid of any real rational scientific argument. A statement was written that made an unsubstantiated claim. SO BLOODY WHAT! It is freely admitted that the evidence for all of the Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035 doesn't exist. So the scientific process works then, it admits what it doesn't know. But most if not all of the attacks I am reading do not make actual scientific arguments. They instead attack the public's trust in the institutions of science. And the public's trust in scientists is completely irrelevant to the truth of their arguments. Most of what I read from the attack posts here amounts to irrational ad-hominem attacks on honorable and truth seeking scientists. Nothing more. You denialists. You faux-skeptics. By relying on irrational ad-hominem attacks you are chipping away at the rational foundations of our society, eroding the foundations of logic and reason which have enabled our civlization to rise above humanity's savage and irrational nature. Your attacks on the noble scientific institutions that have given us unprecedented prosperity have the potential to eventually devastate our social and economic well being. Shame on you.

    --
    This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    1. Re:The Collapse of Reason by Jiro · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Catching scientists in a misrepresentation isn't "the scientific process worked", it's "the scientific process failed, but it could have failed even worse if they had gotten away with it". Lying is an attempted subversion of the process, not part of the process. You might say that being able to catch lies is part of the process, but not lying is still better than lying and being caught.

      And many of the proposed anti-global-warming measures themselves have the potential to "eventually devastate our social and economic well being".

    2. Re:The Collapse of Reason by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Catching scientists in a misrepresentation

      There you go again. Which scientists were caught in a "misrepresentation"?

      The melting Himalayan glaciers was in the WG II report (Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability), not the WG I report. It wasn't written by scientists.

      Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).

      http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
  33. The CRU hack and Soon and Baliunas article by fritsd · · Score: 1
    Is it this one?
    Soon W, Baliunas S (2003) Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Clim Res 23:89-110
    wikipedia meta-article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soon_and_Baliunas_controversy
    The Wikipedia article claims that Climate Research's chief editor, Hans von Storch, has said:

    "The review process had utterly failed; important questions have not been asked ... the methodological basis for such a conclusion (that the 20th century is probably not the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climate period of the last millennium) was simply not given."

    before resigning. The publisher (Inter-Research) wrote the following editorial afterwards. Funnily enough they also publish a journal titled "Ethics in Science" :-) I hate to be in their shoes.
    That quote comes from here ("Global warming: a load of hot air?") which has a nice summary of the politics (in 2004).
    Lemme see if I can find the stolen CRU e-mails themselves..
    Ah here, on the quite climate-skeptical looking website the Air Vent blog.
    Can't find anything specific about the Soon and Baliunas article though.
    The people at realclimate.org have done their utmost best to clarify and debunk the e-mails here.
    To quote: "sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants". In my personal opinion, the RealClimate debunking was believable, although it definitely showed us all that the CRU scientists were biased against the climate sceptics. They look a bit paler and more faded under the shock of sunlight they received on their e-mails :-).
    Still, if the CRU climate scientists are petty and biased and spiteful but their scientific argumentation is solid (as I believe it still is--but I'm not a climate scientist), then I think we should look forward to reducing our CO2 production to the levels of 1990 and then even lower. On a worldwide level this becomes a problem for sociology or politics.
    <incoherent_rant_mode>
    I strongly suggest to read the last chapter of Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, he mentions how a societal (in this case, even global) problem can be recognized, even on time, but still the governing elite can be unwilling or powerless to do what is necessary to mitigate it due to social or cultural constraints (i.e. as if the Greenland Norse refused to live in igloos because it was "un-european" and "un-civilized"). Maybe I should even try to read Joseph Tainter whom Diamond refers to.
    I was alive and conscious in the '90's, and I can tell the young ones, that to live at a level of industrial production similar to in the '90's (Kyoto protocol proposal, a reduction of 5%, which the USA refused to sign) doesn't mean abject poverty while being enslaved to the CO2-measuring communist overlords, as some climate sceptics try to paint it. But then again I was born in Europe, not in one of the Asian Tigers for example, so that colours my perspective strongly.
    </incoherent_rant_mode>

    --
    To be, or not to be: isn't that quite logical, Slashdot Beta?
    1. Re:The CRU hack and Soon and Baliunas article by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Good post, may I be so bold as to predict the response - Oh no, its making well reasoned arguments

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  34. I hope this conspiracy gets blown wide open... by florescent_beige · · Score: 1

    The one where somebody broke into a computer and stole a bunch of stuff then released it a way that just happened to give maximum benefit to some of the richest people on the planet.

    Google and the NSA found out who wrote the code behind their break-in. They found out what buildings the attack came from. Where is the equivalent law enforcement action here? And where is the news coverage of the real actual crime?

    Of course I'm being rhetorical, I know it can't and won't happen.

    --
    Equine Mammals Are Considerably Smaller
  35. Northwest Passage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It was most likely open during the medieval warm period as well. Then froze over solid during the little ice age. That is most likely, although it cannot be proven one way or the other, it is probably true. We don't have records about ships making it through then, but it was warmer then than it is now in the more northern and arctic regions and we know for a fact that the vikings had habitable settlements where it is all frozen ice now and you can't grow anything, so that ups the odds of it being navigable to the same extent it has been in the last few summers.

    If you can accept that, then let's take that into consideration for what is being proposed today, OK?

    Basically, all they have proven so far is we have short, medium and longer lasting climate cyclical changes. Well sure, this is obvious, and no one disputes that.

        They haven't made any point that co2 levels are worth spending trillions of dollars to try and prevent. Especially with the bulk of thse trillions going to high stakes wall street gambling. They haven't even come close to proving such gambling will "save the planet".

      Now, if you want to talk just straight harmful "other than co2" pollution from burning fossil fuels, sure, plenty of evidence for that. And if they, they being the agw crowd, would keep hammering that home, they would achieve the goal they want with much less rancor and and dispute. And who owns and gets the fossil fuels, especially petroleum has certainly lead to a lot of nasty wars, and still does today, as does access to uranium and uranium manipulation technology. And coal is just dirty, we all agree on that, there's no such thing as clean coal.

        Combined with the the benefits of decentralized and alternative energy, spreading the energy wealth out into many more pockets than happens now, plus reducing the cash flow that goes mostly to rather dubiously "nice" regimes or
    "nice" huge corporations who are kingpins of the military industrial complex, you would have even less resistance to trying to reduce the burning of fossil fuels.

    If you keep insisting on economically stomping all over the established developed nations middle class, who are reeling now as it is, you are going to suffer fail, and outright revolt, and until you divorce your "science" from the global cap and trade outright congame, to which it is now completely linked at the highest levels and therefore has this "science" compromised and suspect, you won't have as much success with the general public as you wish.

    If you keep insisting that a gas that humans and other animals exhale is legally a "dangerous pollutant that must be regulated", you are going to have VIGOROUS resistance to that. It is a terrible precedent. It might not be applied today, but the potential is certainly there to start regulating humans over it.

    The more you keep pushing the congame solution to what is still just a non verifiable theory, the more people are going to resist your ultimate doom scenario.

    The more you keep ignoring climactic cycles, making believe they are just extremely minor, the more people are going to resist your ultimate doom scenario.

    If you can divorce yourself from the cap and trade con game, completely, just take it off the table and repudiate the goldman sachs crowd, who are ecstatic over the possibility of a trillion a year stolen from people from all over the planet so they can gamble around with it and create even more financial products, you just might have more success in establishing cleaner energy programs and getting more people to take you seriously.

  36. I was labeled a Troll and insulted by novae_res · · Score: 0

    On this very site for suggesting CO2 might not be the only driving factor, like it was some kind of blasphemy to question the "consensus". I don't see any of those same people showing intolerant zealotry now. This scandal has now become a case of alice and how far the rabbit hole truly goes. And now we are expected to believe the same UN which brought us all those embellished warnings of destruction is going to conduct a non-partisan investigation of itself? Pull the other one. These people should be sacked and publically denounced, but all we get is a whitewash. I've noticed recently that a lot of these same scientists, who rely on the opulent grants afforded them by taxpayers, have debased their arguments and unabashedly claimed the underlying science is right and further debate is still forbidden in a fashion befitting that of the most morally self-righteous twelfth century crusader.

    1. Re:I was labeled a Troll and insulted by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Awww, you poor thing! Maybe if you educated yourself insead of spewing straw men, people would stop treating you like the ignoramus that you are.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    2. Re:I was labeled a Troll and insulted by novae_res · · Score: 0

      Perhaps your should educate yourself, instead of blindly accepting propaganda: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI This one is particularly interesting, as it exposes that most alarmists completely ignore the scientific evidence and choose to believe unequivocally what most of these vested interest groups propagate verbatim: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzkB5DuveDE

    3. Re:I was labeled a Troll and insulted by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Perhaps your should educate yourself, instead of blindly accepting propaganda:

      I'm sorry, but random YouTube videos featuring well known liars does not count as "education". I tried to see what Bob had to say, and it was the old "not a pollutant" canard. How predictable. Again, you need to educate yourself. You could also read up on Bob The Liar Carter over at scienceblogs.com.

      This disgusting liar claims that it is not warming.

      This one is particularly interesting, as it exposes that most alarmists completely ignore the scientific evidence and choose to believe unequivocally what most of these vested interest groups propagate verbatim:

      I'm sorry, but what on earth does this have to do with anything? Never mind the fact that Monckton is an insane liar, but what difference does it make what some random female on the street has to say?

      I think it's becoming clearer now... You don't actually listen to the scientists. You prefer to base your opinions on random ignoramuses on the street (one example being Monckton).

      By the way, I notice that instead of addressing my comment, you are doing a Gish Gallop.

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
    4. Re:I was labeled a Troll and insulted by novae_res · · Score: 0

      I'm sorry, but random YouTube videos featuring well known liars does not count as "education". I tried to see what Bob had to say, and it was the old "not a pollutant" canard.

      Well know liar? He's a professor at the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Queensland. And if you had watched more than 30 seconds of the first part of his lecture, and also the rest of the parts, you would see that the temperatures and warming rates of our time are statistically insignificant. In fact from the look of things, we are heading into another mini ice age. The IPCC will no doubt believe it can stop this occurring with bankrupting taxation too? Quoting the same pro-warming (pro-catastrophe) websites do nothing for your cause; Unless you enjoy preaching to the choir?

      This disgusting liar claims that it is not warming.

      There has been no statistical warming for the past decade. Why do you think those emails caused such a stink? They admitted it themselves. But of course they would never do so in public lest they jepardise their hefty grants. Even climategate's Phil Jones conceded in a recent interview with the BBC that there had been no statistical warming recently which belies their own models.

      I'm sorry, but what on earth does this have to do with anything? Never mind the fact that Monckton is an insane liar, but what difference does it make what some random female on the street has to say?

      Not some random female, but a greenpeace activist was who he was talking to. And if you had actually watched the video instead of once again switching it off after 30 seconds, you would have known that. In it, he queries her motives and how she investigated the science. And we learn that she never actually did, but instead took unquestionably the propaganda pumped out by greenpeace as truth. This is the problem with most of the alarmists; it's no longer a scientific debate, but a matter of faith as is the case in religion. An utterly abhorrent stance in my opinion, and not one that should be taken when making decisions that could bankrupt our country.

      I think it's becoming clearer now... You don't actually listen to the scientists. You prefer to base your opinions on random ignoramuses on the street (one example being Monckton).

      It's patently obvious you have made up your mind regardless of the actual science, as demonstrated by repeated links to pro-AGW sites. If you have any real unmarred data sets (not hockey stick graphs constructed with manipulated data sets) which prove your position, then I would be more than happy to evaluate them.

      By the way, I notice that instead of addressing my comment, you are doing a Gish Gallop.

      Please point out any half-truths I may have used. Is it a half truth that in the historical temperature record, CO2 follows temperature, not the other way around? That's a fact. Another fact; The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has been ten times what it is today, yet all life did not cease to exist. Quite the opposite in fact, life thrived. One more fact; even if what you say is true, and the whole world went back to the stone age for 60 years, it would only reduce the temperature by one degree. Are you willing to give up your pc, tv, phone, social life, education, existence?

    5. Re:I was labeled a Troll and insulted by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      Well know liar? He's a professor at the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Queensland. And if you had watched more than 30 seconds of the first part of his lecture, and also the rest of the parts, you would see that the temperatures and warming rates of our time are statistically insignificant. In fact from the look of things, we are heading into another mini ice age.

      Again, you failed to address the fact that he has a history of lies, and merely parroted the same old right-wing anti-science lies. We are not heading into a mini ice age.

      There has been no statistical warming for the past decade.

      What do you base that claim on?

      Why do you think those emails caused such a stink?

      Because of creationist-like quote-mining and misrepresentation of the contents.

      They admitted it themselves.

      They did no such thing.

      Even climategate's Phil Jones conceded in a recent interview with the BBC that there had been no statistical warming recently which belies their own models.

      Oh dear. You are quoting the misinformation from the Daily Fail, aren't you? You are evidently extremely ignorant of even basic science. The "statistical significance" comment takes more than half a brain to understand, and you evidently don't have that. Educate yourself instead of showing off your amazing ignorance and dishonesty.

      Not some random female, but a greenpeace activist was who he was talking to.

      Again, this is completely irrelevant. What some random activist things is not even remotely relevant to what the actual scientists are saying.

      In it, he queries her motives and how she investigated the science. And we learn that she never actually did, but instead took unquestionably the propaganda pumped out by greenpeace as truth. This is the problem with most of the alarmists; it's no longer a scientific debate, but a matter of faith as is the case in religion. An utterly abhorrent stance in my opinion, and not one that should be taken when making decisions that could bankrupt our country.

      The hypocrisy here is quite amazing. Monckton is a dishonest and disgusting liar who himself will only parrot right-wing lies. He hasn't a scientific bone in his body. Never mind the fact that the video is completely irrelevant to the scientific facts. It's just more hand-waving to get people to ignore the science.

      It's patently obvious you have made up your mind regardless of the actual science, as demonstrated by repeated links to pro-AGW sites. If you have any real unmarred data sets (not hockey stick graphs constructed with manipulated data sets) which prove your position, then I would be more than happy to evaluate them.

      You wouldn't know unmarred data if it punched you in the face. The way you are linking to videos of the retarded moron Monckton process that you are nothing but a denialist.

      Please point out any half-truths I may have used. Is it a half truth that in the historical temperature record, CO2 follows temperature, not the other way around? That's a fact. Another fact; The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has been ten times what it is today, yet all life did not cease to exist. Quite the opposite in fact, life thrived.

      Indeed. The Gish Gallop. Typical brainwashed denialist drone. Here are the actual facts that refute your dishonest talking points:

      Climate myths: Ice cores show CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to glob

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      Clever signature text goes here.
  37. Pachauri article in the Guardian by fritsd · · Score: 1

    What the scientific community needs is better PR and stating that essentially those who think AGW is not happening are gullible, misguided people, whackjobs and paid ex-tobacco lobbyists.

    You mean something like this I presume.
    This was actually difficult to find: Woodward & McDowell lobbying firm, AB 32 Implementation Group.
    Other maybe interesting links:here, or this slightly more activist website.

    --
    To be, or not to be: isn't that quite logical, Slashdot Beta?
  38. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  39. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  40. 'Gray" Material? by Hasai · · Score: 1

    "Many scientists say that such material, ranging from reports by government agencies to respected research not published in scientific journals, is crucial to seeking a complete picture of the state of climate science."

    Or, to support a predetermined conclusion.

    'Nuff said.

    --

    Regards;

    Hasai

  41. Interesting Youtube Overview by ashelton · · Score: 1

    In the end it doesn't really matter too much. Any solution would involve some negative economic effects and many of the governments have no intention of doing any such thing. China which considers economic advancement the key to social stability and the US which considers itself already losing a trade war with china. So the attack on the science is more about providing a distraction / excuse for why nothing substantial will be done at the political level.

    The discussion of the science, and how it is mis-represented, is very interesting though. I found this youtube video series by potholer54 to be a pretty fascinating introduction to the subject, with good coverage of issues and links back to actual papers.

  42. Re:The Main Problem with these dang Climatologists by Xyrus · · Score: 1

    Here's the problem. Scientists are not PR specialist. Nor do they receive funds in anything like the amounts necessary for a any sort of PR campaign. However, those with vested interests in discrediting climate science have buckets of cash to wage a PR war.

    Shout out enough lies long enough and soon they are the truth. This happened with smoking, acid rain, and the ozone hole. Trying to wage a campaign to prove you're right is the surest way to fail, and scientist seem to know how to do this in spades.

    You don't win a PR war by convincing people you are right. You wage an effective PR war by discrediting your opponent and appealing to emotion. You attack by coming up with half-truths that have just enough believability or statements that make just enough sense to the layperson that you get people wondering. Once the cracks are there, you just keep hammering. Soon, you can start making more and more outrageous claims. People will no longer question anything you say because your opponent can't or doesn't respond fast enough or doesn't respond in a manner that isn't easily digestible into sound bites.

    At that point, your opponent is finished. Nothing on $DIETY's green earth will ever convince the people your opponent is correct even if they have a 10 PB data center full of research and data to back up their claim and the pope to boot.

    The scientist have lost and will continue to lose the PR side until the adapt the tactics every other mud-slinger out there uses. One can only hope that saner more logical minds listen to the experts in the field rather than Joe Teabagger.

    ~X~

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    ~X~
  43. a physicists view on it by drolli · · Score: 1

    A disclaimer: i am a physicist (phd) working in an area unrelated to climate research. I am personally convinced that putting the ecosystem out of balance so far as we are doing it now is a terrible idea. To the question of gray literature. a) politically: excluding gray literature would hit the skeptics harsh. So yes, you are welcome to ask for that. At the same time we should ask to review the talks which are given by industry-payed lobbyists in backrooms in Washington (and other capitals) for references to such gray literature and track this. The politics has to decide if they want to base their decisions on Science or Lobbyist money. Excluding gray literature reduces Lombards pseudo-arguments in his book to shambles. BTW: in that case also kiss Creationism good bye. b) empirically about non-peer reviewed publications: The overwhelming majority of scientists/persons who circumvent peer review know why they do so. The overwhelming majority of non-peer reviewed papers strongly opposing a common scientific viewpoint is proven to be utterly wrong later. Half of what climate skecptics cite can be debunked by anybody with elementary physics knowlegde (e.g. a bachelor). c) observation of conspiracy theories: the Skeptics generate some conpiracy theories. Statistically most conspiracy theories are bullshit. But we in science compiracies blocking publications have been rumored about from time to time. Empirically i think they are small. Science has shown that it adopts new ideas quickly (e.g. theory of relativity, quantum physics took only a few years - and for sure against quite some establishment) d) Scientific misconduct in the climate community: Yes. It exists. As it does in any other field in the science. And yes, people have buddies and discuss with them to skip one or the other data point. Sadly. In comparison to how much was lied in the beginning of nuclear technology, the misconduct which i have seen published are small. In gray publications there is no code at all for scientific misconduct. e) IPCC boards: The more scientific working groups had no problems. The real problems where the working groups who should estimate the consequences (non-scientists). Ironically instead of asking the scientist in the IPCC they copied non-peer reviewed material (written by non-scientists).

  44. Who Cares? Focus on the solution. by stastuffis · · Score: 1

    Whether or not I believe we are spelling our quick demise is really none of my concern. Many publications on the topic have claimed much of the damage is irreversible. Some seem to inappropriately model the data (read: make accurate predictions). Inability to make such predictions isn't proof of incorrectness, but instead, it makes me ponder the usefulness. However, while I do I have my reservations on these findings, I do have a strong opinion on energy. With our current plans, it's quite finite.

    In short, I'd rather have more money being poured into renewable technologies, even at the expense of climate change research (not cutting it). If we know the proposed solution is a future-bound inevitability (regardless of the validity of climate change theory), what's all the fuss for? I'd just suggest to look at how much money and power the industry of energy holds. That's why it's political.

    I will add that I believe what bothers me about some "Global Warmists" is the animosity and push for dramatic overnight change. Some people even discard nuclear energy, dubbing it too dirty. Sure, it's not perfect but it's a farcry away from coal and a good stepping stone as we search for better answers.

    Infrastructures have to be rebuilt. New technologies must be found. Limitations must be overcome (wind, etc.) Resources must be considered every step of the way. Money is also required. Focus on the solution. It will be needed no matter the issue.

  45. Gray Literature, Change without Hope, etc by hicksw · · Score: 1

    One would expect the data behind any worthwhile gray literature to be incorporated in peer-reviewed literature. Perhaps it remains gray is because the data isn't worthwhile.

    It is not unreasonable to suspect that the effects on climate of the last three hundred years cannot be reversed in a decade or two, no matter how much effort we expend. In that case our efforts would be better aimed at survival in the new circumstances rather than trying and failing to restore the previous circumstances.

    I am a real denier. I know that things, including the climate, change. I deny humans can reverse the process.
    --
    If you can't be a good example, you have an obligation to be a horrible warning.

  46. Glaciers Melting by hackus · · Score: 1

    "which has faced recriminations over inaccuracies in a 2007 report...."

    Inaccuracies?

    You've got to be kidding me.

    The data was downright FRAUDULENT.

    Inaccuracies my a**.

    -Hack

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    Got Geometrodynamics? Awe, too hard to figure out? Too bad.
  47. Epistemology by zippthorne · · Score: 1

    "Scientists" deliberately mislead and misrepresented facts to promote an agenda. To a non-scientist, that taints the issue. And it wasn't a one-time affair. You can't just "look at the science" any more because you no longer have a way if knowing, without actually being one of the scientists, what the hell "the science" is.

    The existence of something is irrefutable proof of its possibility. In this case, the thing that you can no longer dismiss as "extremely unlikely" is "deliberate fraud with respect to climate data for the purpose of promoting an agenda."

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    Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    1. Re:Epistemology by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      "Scientists" deliberately mislead and misrepresented facts to promote an agenda.

      Again, so what? Actual scientists are still doing actual science, and those facts are there regardless of whether someone uses them for their own evil purposes or not.

      You can't just "look at the science" any more because you no longer have a way if knowing, without actually being one of the scientists, what the hell "the science" is.

      Yes you do have a way of knowing, because the scientific process is designed so that claims cannot be made without being verifiable by independent parties. Science is that which is published in respected scientific journals like "Nature" and "Science".

      The existence of something is irrefutable proof of its possibility. In this case, the thing that you can no longer dismiss as "extremely unlikely" is "deliberate fraud with respect to climate data for the purpose of promoting an agenda."

      The only fraud here is from the denialist camp. There is no evidence what so ever of fraud by actual scientists. If that were the case, then thousands of scientists all over the world would have to be in on it. A completely insane conspiracy theory by any measurement.

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  48. Climate change is natural and good. by symbolset · · Score: 1

    If AGW were so factual, its proponents would not be so adamant about hiding data. A scientist has not so much to hide even when he harbors doubts about his conclusions because his overriding concern is not to be right or to profit, but that the Truth is discovered and by provable steps Knowledge progresses.

    Carbon is a precious resource we should preserve because we need it. It's an important part of the photosynthesis process that plants use to store solar energy into a form that's remarkably compact and has incredible utility both for energy dense uses like transportation and accomodation of humans' thermal needs, but in the production of food. We are not well served by giving it to phytoplankton that feed zooplankton that sequester it in calcium deposits on the floor of the oceans.

    We live in an interglacial age. By fits and starts the temperature is rising as it is expected to - and we should be glad of that. A habitably warm Earth is not by any measure the norm in geological time, especially for our teeming billions. A glacial age just will not support 6 billion people. The skewed graphs that made the end of the last millenium into a hockey stick that implied a runaway greenhouse effect have been thoroughly debunked. We're still contributing CO2, and the warming stopped. If the spike existed at all, and was not an artifact of the interpretation of the data, the point remains that fifteen years on, the global climate did not increase by 5c. The sky did not fall. We are not being punished by brutal hurricanes. The Himalayan glaciers are still there, receding at the expected rate. If Men have an impact on climate, it is so small as to be unworthy of notice. Even if we used up all of the fraction of carbon fuels left accessible to us as wastefully as possible, we could not impact the climate once again as much as we have already. If anything, the arable zone has moved closer to the landmass and that's not a bad thing.

    All of that carbon was once in the air. Let's not forget that. That's how it came to be in the form and location it is in. It was sequestered by plants once before and it will be again. Far more carbon than this was once in the air and is sequestered in limestone deposits which are even now being subducted into the Earth's mantle to be seen again nevermore. If you think a Hummer produces a lot of CO2, you should look at Mayan plaster. You need not go so far as South America though - wander down to the Home Depot and read the ingredients on the box of Beadex texture (pdf) that your contractor textured the walls of your home with (Limestone, >85% by weight). The Earth was once much warmer than it is, even in human history. When that carbon (both the limestone and the fossil fuels) was in the air before, the Earth did not turn into Venus and it won't this time either because we could not with all our technolgy even release all of the carbon that was in the air before. Most of it is now dissolved into the Earth's core - and even when it was in the air Earth still went through glacial cycles and didn't runaway into Venus. It just can't happen. It was life that transformed the Earth into an environment habitable by humans, and it's life that will defend that equilibrium. We're rich, we're smart, and we're active, but we're a fraction of a percent a percent of the planet's biomass. We're just not that important in the grand scheme of things.

    Yes, climate change means the oceans rise - as they always have. At mere millimeters per year the message really shouldn't be "Run for your lives" - but more like "It might be wise to encourage your children to build their huts a few meters further from the rising sea". Yes, the Sahel region of Africa and the Chinese Gobi desert and a thin strip of South America will become less habitable over time as part of this natural cycle. If humans

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    Help stamp out iliturcy.
    1. Re:Climate change is natural and good. by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

      If AGW were so factual, its proponents would not be so adamant about hiding data.

      No one is hiding data.

      Carbon is a precious resource we should preserve because we need it.

      So is water. But not in too large amounts. Too much water is dangerous. You could try walking through a flooded area some time. Yes, we need water, but it is dangerous in too large amounts. Just like CO2.

      We live in an interglacial age. By fits and starts the temperature is rising as it is expected to - and we should be glad of that.

      No, the sun is warming the planet less than it should, which means that it should be getting colder. But it isn't. It's getting warmer despite the sun's effect being low.

      The skewed graphs that made the end of the last millenium into a hockey stick that implied a runaway greenhouse effect have been thoroughly debunked. We're still contributing CO2, and the warming stopped.

      No, the warming has not stopped, and the hockey stick has been confirmed to be essentially correct.

      Far more carbon than this was once in the air

      This is just ignorant nonsense.

      By increasing the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere we lengthen the time before the glaciers return

      Typical denialist bullshit. First you deny the facts, and now you suddenly admit that human activity is causing global warming, except now it's good for us! The retardation is strong with this one.

      But let's not panic. The world is changing - as it always has and always will.

      You are just a fucking moron who are reciting the same old bullshit denialist talking points. Educate yourself.

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      Clever signature text goes here.
  49. We all know what causes global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Clearly it's the decrease in the number of pirates So says our the great noodle in the sky.