The Difficulty of Dismantling Constellation
Last month, we discussed news that President Obama's 2011 budget proposal did not include plans to continue NASA's Constellation program, choosing instead to focus on establishing a stronger foundation for low earth orbit operations. Unfortunately, as government officials prepare to shut down Constellation, they're warning that it won't be a quick or simple process due to the contracts involved. From the Orlando Sentinel:
"Obama's 2011 budget proposal provides $2.5 billion to pay contractors whatever NASA owes them so the agency can stop work on Constellation's Ares rockets, Orion capsule and Altair lunar lander. But administration officials acknowledge that this number is, at best, an educated guess. ... Many inside and outside of the space agency, however, think the number is too low. The agency has signed more than $10 billion worth of contracts to design, test and build the Ares I rocket and Orion capsule that were the heart of Constellation. But government auditors said last year that the costs of some of those contracts had swelled by $3 billion since 2007 because of design changes, technical problems and schedule slips. How much NASA will owe on all those contracts if the plug gets pulled is unclear. Many of the deals are called 'undefinitized contracts,' meaning that the terms, conditions — and price — had not been set before NASA ordered the work to start. That means the agency will need to negotiate a buyout with the contractor — and that can be a long and painful process, according to government officials familiar with the cancellation process."
We could continue the Constellation project - or sell out to private companies - and quit letting the government take over health care.
Since neither will happen, not sure what else we can do. We've lost our backbone for adventure as we've continued to reinforce the entitlement mentality that is draining our country dry of resources.
"There is a way that seems right to a man, but its end is the way of death." Proverbs 16:25 (NKJV)
They seriously signed a contract that stated "do work and we'll pay you"? I know a pretty good way of getting the budget under control. Don't do that!
I've seen it happen in the software industry... if project after project is canceled, people eventually assume that the next project they work on will *also* be canceled. And when that happens, they subconsciously or otherwise don't do a good job any more, because they don't really believe that what they're building will ever see the light of day.
In aerospace, that can get people killed. Sometimes it's better to actually build something imperfect, then to start and stop program after program after program without ever producing anything. Sooner or later, the institutional knowledge of how to actually do something gets lost.
Is anyone surprised shutting down Constellation isn't any easier than shutting down any other government program? How often does that happen?
OTOH, I suppose if they're successful, it's a one-time cost. But I'm skeptical that it will ever actually be shut down. There's too much pork for too many districts for Congress to ever let that happen. The cost of the political horse-trading to make it happen will probably be expensive enough that it would be cheaper just to complete the damn program.
American Third Position
Finally, a real choice!
cause in 10 years the USA will be a technological wasteland of ancients
YOUR stupid forever almost copyrights and patent systems
the slowing begins now
all the rest fo the world has to do is SAY FRAK ACTA
and your benefits will come longer term.
Why not make the contractors finish out their work, take what technology and experience we get and at least have something to show rather than saying gee, sorry we can't finish, but here's your billions for equipment and labor you don't need to pay for now.
So instead of paying them to finish the project, we are going to pay them what we would have paid to finish it to cancel it! Go Obama!
Hey, I don't think it's time to be talking about scrapping Constallation yet. It seems a bit unlikely as this proposed budget will get through Congress anyway, as it seems to be generally disliked by both parties... :P
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/asd/2010/02/26/01.xml&headline=NASA%20Plan%20Falls%20Flat%20In%20Congress&channel=space
Hey, I know I signed a contract so that you'd build a house for me, but I no longer want it. Of course, by our contract, I'll still pay you as though you would have built it.
Yeah, great plan.
"Many of the deals are called 'undefinitized contracts,' meaning that the terms, conditions -- and price -- had not been set before NASA ordered the work to start."
Oh, that sort of thing always ends well. /sarcasm
I thought the previous administration had thought itself good at business dealings?
With reasonable men I will reason; with humane men I will plead; but to tyrants I will give no quarter. -- William Lloyd
The fact that Nasa is contract stupid (I'm guessing deals to placate various legislators, but hey, I'm paranoid.) is only part of the problem.
Nasa lives and dies over gee wizz flashy programs to get funding. Nasa has to impress the powers that be, President, advisors, legislators, defense contractors, and even lobbyists, to get decent upper management and funding. They have to be even more impressive to maintain the needed funding over multiple years and administrations.
Because...
Most ventures having to do with space require a lot of time as well as consistent funding. Congress, who holds the purse strings, is motivated by short term goals and is easily swayed by other vested interests (see above).
The only way I can see to fix this would require a law or constitutional amendment, if necessary, to enable congress to assign budgetary funds, ideally multi-year, that are paid in advance and very difficult to change. At least a 2/3 or even a 3/4 vote should be necessary to remove or repeal. This sort of protection will have to include the top management at Nasa as well.
Not a lot else you can do unless you can make all three branches of government reasonable, honorable, and able to think and plan on a long range basis.
Ward
. Silence! Be thankful thy species is unpalatable! .
Like they negotiated the bank bailout ("you will take this money or we will spend the next 10 years auditing you")? Like they negotiated the GM bailout ("sorry bondholders with a legal contract, we're fucking you over in favor of the unions")? Or like they negotiated the Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, and AIG bailouts ("how much money do you want? Let's triple that just in case. Come back in 3 months and we'll give you some more.")?
Do you even lift?
These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.
I wish there was more money for space, but for heaven's sake - if it really was a choice between socialised healthcare for people, or socialised manned space travel, I'd still put the former first.
But it's not one or the other. Curiously this false dichotomy is used by people against manned space travel. After all, the argument against the common "But the are more important things to spend money on than manned space travel" is not to somehow argue that manned space travel is more important than people living and having basic needs, but to point out that there can be money for both. As one example, perhaps if they spent slightly less on a socialised military, there'd be plenty of money for both socialised healthcare and socialised manned space travel.
We've lost our backbone for adventure as we've continued to reinforce the entitlement mentality that is draining our country dry of resources.
Yes, obviously it's those evil people who are ill who are just draining resources, obviously they should be paying for those who have a sense of entitlement to go travelling in space. There's no "entitlement" here - your view on how taxes should be spent is no less an "entitlement mentality" than anyone else's.
I know this won't happen because the government likes maintaining it's stranglehold on US space exploration, but why they don't just privatize NASA?
We're far away from the the 60's where the government had a mission to get to the moon. For the last 15 years, NASA's manned missions have all been about international cooperation. The government hasn't been able to do it all on it's own- it's needed help from virtually every technologically advanced country on the planet in order to (A) keep the shuttles flying, and (B) put the ISS in orbit.
The level of cooperation needed in order to allow NASA to go beyond the shuttle program, and beyond the ISS is going to be enormous, and is going to need involvement from everyone to make it happen. Privatize NASA- yes it will take some time, and won't happen overnight, but it can put them into a position to try and become a global space exploration company that can bring in resources from wherever it finds them in order to fulfil a GLOBAL mission of putting a human being on Mars.
If there's anyone out there watching us, let's give them some indication that we can work together as a planet to do something spectacular.
Where rather than paying about $10B for a giant accelerator we paid something like $3B for a useless hole in the ground. Spending billions of dollars on a marginal project may not be a great idea, but its a LOT better than spending billions and getting nothing.
plus reasonable shutdown costs to complete archiving of documentation. That's the way it should be.
The problem is that all the people who have regular contact with the contractors and their employees are good friends and colleagues, so they're far more likely to make sure their "friends" has a soft landing.
Now we'll see what kind of idiots work on the contract negotiation side of NASA. Time for the blood sucking lawyers to get to work...
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
I hear Americans so often talk of this so-called "entitlement mentality". It is a confusing concept for us non-Americans.
On one hand, many Americans claim there are certain abstract concepts that are inalienable. That is, things that everybody is entitled to, without having to earn it. Freedom of expression, the right to life, the right to bear arms, and so forth.
Yet those same Americans will turn around seconds later, and complain about how other Americans have an "entitlement mentality" when these other people want such basic things as affordable (not even "free"!) health care, or even a slight degree of job security.
What differentiates between those ideas that it's okay to feel "entitled" to, versus those that lead to a "entitlement mentality"?
I heard NASA are engaging in a new project far more ambicious than the colonisation of the moon:
http://punchbaby.com/2010/02/nasa-scientists-plan-to-approach-girl-by-2018/
Assuming this is true, then if they idiots spend $5 billion on alternatives then the idiots really spent $15 billion. That's just beautiful.
and quit letting the government take over health care.
needs a kneejerk /kneejerk tag
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
According to Wikipedia, CV64 is to be cut up for scrap sometime in the next 5 years. It will be a big job.
This just goes to cement the fact that obama and his entire administration are a pack of fudging idiots. Leave it running, or sell it off to private contractors.....oh wait, then they put caps and tariffs on them for breaking atmosphere and producing those much abused and misunderstood greenhouse gases the media is always using out of context. Then boom, they turn a loss into a profit and the industry dies....if we lose our space program, we lose our country. Everyone i speak with says "we will just use russian rockets to get to the iss and satellites....that, is the most idiotic thing i have ever heard. What happens if russia decides they don't like us anymore? Or what if one of our spy sats goes down and needs maintenance? Will they allow us to go up in THEIR rockets if a satellite of ours that circumvents and watches THEIR bases? It makes no sense to me, am i alone in that?
People carrying out plans need to make contractual commitments, otherwise nobody would invest in it (either their money, capital equipment, reputation, education or career). It can seem disgusting to be paying out for things you no longer require, but these guys made investments and plans based on promises and they shouldn't suffer - unduly! - because they lived up to their bargain but the other guy broke his word.
True, they shouldn't be compensated for nothing. They should be paid for work they have done and everything else is to take them to a position neutral to what he would have had if the contract had never taken place.
The question really is on whether the contracts were reasonable in the first place. People entering into contracts tend to be convinced there will be no backing out on their part and therefore are happy to agree to a 100% commitment in return for a 2% price cut. This is where protocol and leadership comes in - people with foresight concerned about risk. But much of the time with any major organisation (government, corporation, whatever) the guy who makes the decisions to commit is actually short sighted - he knows, assumes or at least fears he will lose responsibility for it well before it becomes an issue.
Worse, the detail is being arranged by guys who are aware that their ultimate boss is relatively short term. They are wont to make contracts solid basically to make it as unappealing as possible for the next guy to back out - acting against their employer's best interests in order to entrench their position and secure their own jobs.
Agency risk does not only apply to deliberate action against the interests of the principal, most of the time it's just people acting human.
P.S. In evaluating whether Obama is making the right decision here, it's a fallacy to consider all this money as being wasted. The money was already committed, it's a sunk cost - irrelevant to decisions. The decision today must be based on whether a) the additional money to continue Constellation or b) the additional money to pursue the new plan is better. If you want to discuss this committed money, you're appraising decisions made in the past.
how many time has the American gov been screwed by contractors? Why not pay back the favor and pull out
Project Dynasoar was nearly complete when they canceled it. It is probably they way we should have been going into LEO. Then we could have started building a nuclear powered VASIMIR. Heck project Orion might have been done by now.
Oh, yeah! Wise guy, huh? Woob woob woob woob! Nyuk! Nyuk!
"Superconducting Super Collider": that just sounds too expensive.
When Congressmen are hunting for some pork for their district, they look for the biggest beast to slaughter. So that there will be enough pork to go around for a group of them. This collider project got their attention, just because of the name.
So my advice to physicists: avoid "super" and "collider" in the name of your project. Call it something like, "mini-micro particle separator." That name will not draw any attention, because it sounds innocuous.
Oh, and the reactions of Alabama's politicos seemed like a giveaway: it just smelled like someone had just stolen their pork.
Unfortunately, Congress is more interested in pork procurement, than science.
We lose.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
I sense a lot of hot air in those numbers. And I predict the numbers will keep growing the closer you get to the actual deadline.
After all, the involved people have no incentitive to make the shutdown seem - or even in reality be - cheap. "Look, you can't shut us down, it will cost just as much as letting us finish, or maybe even more!"
I'm a little amazed about complains - people voted for these programs (through their politicians), why to complain now? Governments, as anyone else (except of course the banks and car companies - used to be mining, copper, banana, chemicals, etc) are supposed to honor the contracts, or?
Until someone is kept responsible on bad deals / ideas this will go on and on. And today keeping responsible is nicer than it used to be - in old times you lost your head, today it should be money, position, maybe ended with a concrete booths, etc instead of a promotions or votes to make more mistakes?
So - what else is new?
As explained by the likes of John Locke, the idea of fundamental human rights stems from the idea that you are your own sole master -- or in a religious wording, that nobody can claim ownership over you but God. Therefore, if anyone kills you, or enslaves you, or forces you to work for their benefit, they've infringed on this ownership. This idea of life, liberty and property stands in sharp contrast to ideas like a "right to health care", because the modern "rights" necessarily involve using force to violate other people's lives, liberty or property. To grant your right to live -- that is, to not have anyone take your life by force -- all I have to do is not murder you. To grant your supposed right to health care, I have to work and let you take the product of my labor by force. Meaning that you claim partial ownership over my labor and my thoughts, independent of the practical argument that we must tax people to protect their rights against each other's aggression. To turn a "right to life" into a "right to take anything you need to live" has the same problem of innately violating other people's rights.
The fact that Americans are now divided by whether they accept what I (and our Founders) said is why we might, unfortunately, be headed for civil war.
Revive the Constitution.
The contracts I've worked on or negotiotied:
First Cost Plus is NOT cost plus percentage.. that's been illegal for decades. It's cost plus fixed fee (CPFF) or more commonly cost plus Award Fee (CPAF), where the award is determined, in part by how close the contractor came to hitting the target/bid cost. Go over, and the fee decreases. And that's really painful because the "percentage" fee goes down.
Second, most contracts have a "termination liability" written into them. If you order work or parts from a subcontractor that has a long lead time (very common for space qualified parts), then there's a negotiated amount to "close out" the contract if you decide not to finish it out. Almost all contracts have a clause for "termination at the government's convenience".
the game playing (aka "getting well") happens in "contract mods" or "engineering change orders", where you ask for a change in scope or deliverables, and the contractor comes back and says, "that's gonna cost X more"... But even there, the fee can't be increased more than a certain amount. It's genuiinely a "bigger job", not just "the job cost more than I expected, but hey, we profit on the percentage".
Undefinitized contracts are more like "we need 5 to 20 units, and we're not sure, so quote us a price for the non recurring engineering (NRE) and for the "per unit" cost, and we'll tell you how many widgets we need".
This stuff gets audited up and down the yin/yang, so it's not like there's lots of scope for fraud. If the contractor says they spent $10M, they darn well really spent $10M (probably to the fraction of $1K). That doesn't stop you from making stupid purchases, but you certainly pay for exactly what you asked for.
Expensive? Difficult? Since when did these ever dissuade the reckless decision makers in this Whitehouse? I am quite confident when Falcon 9 crashes in the Atlantic next month that the congress will take control of NASA and reinstate Constellation.
an ill wind that blows no good
The X-37 is a terrific alternative to Orion - if we want to launch midgets. Get a clue.
an ill wind that blows no good
As an aside, I almost feel ashamed to be an American right now since after this year, we will no longer have ANY manned space flight capability. The Russians, Chinese, and even the Indian's have active manned space flight programs but the United States of America does not.
WTF?
The graph was on the first page of results for the search term I used - 'federal budget graph', iirc. I agree that it's misleading - where are the figures for off-budget items?
There is no difference between most democrats and republican. They tow the party line and beat their drums about change, but the railroad tracks still go in the same direction.
There are two exceptions (and maybe a few others): Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul. The rest are clueless, stupid, or deluded with 'false power' (that is, they think they're a bull, but they really just get led around by the party-installed nose ring).
I choose to get off the train, and go my own way.
Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.
www.teslabox.com
The "mandatory spending" is only mandatory because of the !@&#(* spending bills that REQUIRE certain monies to be spent on certain things.
So...mandatory spending is only mandatory because it is mandated?
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
What else would you expect from the New York Times? The chart is highly misleading.
The "mandatory spending" is only mandatory because of the !@&#(* spending bills that REQUIRE certain monies to be spent on certain things.
Uh, yes? In what way is this misleading?
I realize that during the Bush years, Republicans didn't think laws were much more than general guidelines. But we're back in the real world now, buddy.
Our (Democrat Party controlled) government has been spending like a drunken sailor with no regard whatsoever how to come up with the funds to meet our spending obligations. Democrats will typically point to the Bush administration and say "Look at what he spent!". Does one irresponsible act warrant another?
When eight years of deficit spending got us into this mess, it's going to take about that long to get us back out of it.
Were you not listening when some of us were saying it's going to take 20 years to undo the damage Bush was doing to this country during his two terms in office? He took a surplus and turned it into the largest deficits this country has ever seen. And he did it during economic prosperity. How do you expect Obama to take a recession he inherited and turn that deficit spending around in a year?
The damage Bush did is going to take a long, long time to recover from. This should not be news to anyone.
I love the double ententre implied in your statement. We've definitely been celebrating mediocrity since dollar year. I'm not sure which dollar year you are referring to, but whenever big dollars are in play, mediocrity seems to follow :)
Does Bush's out-of-control spending justify Obama ramping spending up by an order of magnitude?
If when you talk about "the damage Bush did", you are referring to the growth of entitlement programs like free prescription drugs for seniors, then I agree with you.