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iPad Is Destroying Netbook Sales
Hugh Pickens writes "Fortune magazine reports that sales growth of low-cost, low-powered netbooks peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate but netbook sales fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad. In support of Huberty's theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March which found that 44% of US consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer. In related news, Apple announced that it sold its one millionth iPad last week, just 28 days after its introduction on April 3. 'One million iPads in 28 days — that's less than half of the 74 days it took to achieve this milestone with iPhone,' says Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. 'Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers.'"
says Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. 'Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers.' Steve -- have you tried using Pixie Dust?
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
...I find the iPad to be a perfect web surfing device. Great for e-mail and watching video. I am actually considering selling my Macbook Pro, as it is starting to get dusty. That said, I wouldn't want to write a novel on it.
Geesh... "destroyed"? "fell off a cliff"?
no bias in this article
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Or maybe netbook sales are cratering because instead of delivering quality models with high performance and low power packed into a lightweight enclosure, companies like Dell have axed all but the most profitable models, and replaced SSDs with magnetic disks and raised prices to the maximum they can squeeze out of customers. Netbook selection is terrible now compared to what it was a year ago. Last year there were many models and there was a price war, now there are a few models and they're just crappy low-end notebooks.
the /. "it'll never sell, it's just a giant itouch' crowd really knocked this one outta the park.
what can i say? when you're right 48 of the time, you're wrong 52 percent of the time.
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Is this the MPAA? Is this the RIAA? Is this the DMCA? I thought it was the USA!
Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers.
I can't imagine why some people regard Apple as a cult...
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I think it has to do more with market saturation than the iPad. All of the Soccer Moms and folks who wanted the small portable cheap computer picked them up over last year and the holidays. These aren't people on a 3 year HW replacement cycle and don't care about power so they're not going to go out and jump for another machine.
Enough iPad sensationalism.
I'm going to feel just a little bit sad for the owners of those million iPads when they drop the price and kick out the next version in 6 months. They'll be outraged, but Jobs will just say "hey, at least it wasn't 2 months this time!"
NetBooks were always strange devices. Marginally more portable than a laptop (although not portable enough to fit in a pocket), and a lot less powerful. Their only real advantage was their cost. They were very cheap, but since the original EeeeeeeeeeeeeePC they've gradually crept up in price and now they're just too expensive for what they are.
The iPad, in contrast, is not just a cheap laptop. It fills a distinctly different need to a laptop. I've not entirely worked out what that need is - it seems to target a market that doesn't contain me - but it's clearly not the same set of uses as a laptop.
The iPad isn't killing Netbooks, they're doing that all by themselves. The iPad is just giving people who might have bought one and never used it after the first couple of months something different to waste their money on.
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For the vast majority of end users, especially those who don't care what's running their devices, the iPad is a good enough substitute for a full laptop PC. The screen is big enough to do serious browsing (unless you use Flash...) and it doubles as a book reader/media player. The major problems I've always had with netbooks is the desktop OS (Linux or Windows) crammed onto a too-small screen, the speed and the tiny keyboards. I've tried to like them - I really have. But that form factor really stinks if you have bad eyes and big fingers.
(And no, I don't own an iPad. I'm the old fogey in the corner with a 14" laptop.)
Even with the lack of Flash,a keyboard and a mainstream OS, the iPad as a netbook replacement is not totally out to lunch. There are some situations where netbooks work well, usually they involve field workers in non-harsh environments who have to run full desktop apps but want a 2 pound laptop instead of a 5 pound one.
Growth in netbook sales is slowed down to "only" 6% YOY as of April. This means that they're just as strong as last year, just not going up at an insane exponential rate which is, by definition unsustainable for many generations. They are not *cratering* as the summary implies.
While it's true iPad cannot doesn't allow me to do everything my laptop does, I find that for most of the things I do with a laptop the iPad excels. Especially consuming content. Creating content is getting better (I'm more used to the keyboard and use an external BT keyboard for long writing sessions), iSSH makes it bearable to manage my servers remotely (the only servers I use anymore are "remote"), and when off work the iPad is a fantastic movie and gaming platform.
So, I am finding myself using my iPad more and my laptop less. (Ironically, I'm writing this from my MacBookPro :)
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People buy toys. . .
'One million iPads in 28 days -- that's less than half of the 74 days it took to achieve this milestone with iPhone,'
Isn't it crazy how fast people will belly up to throw cash at you when you're not also forcing them into a two year cellphone plan with AT&T with high monthly payments? I know you need a service plan to use the iPad's 3G but there's also a model with no 3G. I wonder what the breakdown of that million sales looks like (yes, I know the 3G just came out). I'd wager the faster adoption of the iPad is mostly due to the consumer's ability to make their own choices. Consumer options are a good thing. I know that's not the way Jobs likes to do things but that's just my analysis.
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641% wow man.. thats a lot of growth, if they could keep that up the number of netbooks in the market doubles roughly every month, it would only take just under 3 years for the entire population of the world to have a net-book (starting with 1 net-book at the 1st month) isn't it more likely that the net book market has saturated itself. I find it hard to understand how people can compare these two different product types, these tablets don't even have keyboards, and cost at least 2wice as much. enough already with this apple out to conquer the world hogwash don't believe the hype
An iPad is really a "new class" of device: a "content access" tool rather than a "content creation" tool. A notebook is really good for creating stuff. But for viewing stuff, its actually decidedly second-class.
And netbooks are just small notebooks: with all the limitations that a notebook has.
An iPad is different: it actually sucks for creating content for the most part: the keyboard just is a steaming pile of "not good" compared with even the keyboard on the XO laptop. But for data access it is brilliant: Light weight, long lived, easy to use.
And with the app ecology, apps are just more "data to access", and its really good at that. I'd expect to see, eg, a lot of interesting industrial/business applications as well start to develop. Its not just a "for fun" device really, its just a reflection that there are different roles for devices, and apple built a specialist-in-a-different direction device.
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Its also entirely possible that people have begun to realize that netbooks are just annoying.
Too small for long term use, too large for stuffing in your pocket or a small purse, battery life no better than my MBP for the same tasks and utterly incapable of doing the same things. Not useful as a phone.
Netbooks were a cute fad but lets face it, they aren't really useful to most people and it took people a little bit to realize it.
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First there was no such device as a netbook. Then the geeks saw the OLPC and then they ran around, screaming "I want one of these!!!!" After some screaming, Asus thought it might be nice to sell some of these devices to geeks. Hey its about money. And then more people saw that netbooks are nice devices so they bought one. As the demand for netbooks was high the sales jumped up (because the industry suddenly provided a portable product which was very much needed by many people). Now most of those people who want a netbook have a netbook and so the sales are going back. Also there was/is a financial crisis going on. And while the crisis more or less hit the public in the US very quickly it took some time to have an affect countries with "social backup systems".
So in short: It is not a falling of a cliff it is just the end of a peak. And yes, as already mentioned, there are no really cheap netbooks anymore.
Or maybe netbook sales are cratering because instead of delivering quality models with high performance and low power packed into a lightweight enclosure, companies like Dell have axed all but the most profitable models, and replaced SSDs with magnetic disks and raised prices to the maximum they can squeeze out of customers. Netbook selection is terrible now compared to what it was a year ago. Last year there were many models and there was a price war, now there are a few models and they're just crappy low-end notebooks.
Indeed, at least one study in late 2009 predicted that Netbooks would fall off of their own accord
http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3855261/Netbook-Sales-to-Cool-Off-in-2010.htm
That was a month before the iPad was announced.
You know, I think you've basically just proved Apple's marketing campaign for the last several years.
Usually the PC is saying they can do spreadsheets and other similar boring business type tasks. The Mac is more concerned about doing interesting things like managing photos and playing music and having a life.
To a lot of people, Microsoft Office and Quickbooks aren't things they want to do. Apple seems to have made a market about selling people devices which do fun things. And, yes, that likely is a whole new audience.
The fact they've sold a million in this timeframe means it's a big audience. I don't know what I'd do with one, but what I've seen of them makes me secretly want one -- I won't be buying one, but I do covet them.
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...with help from notebooks.
When netbooks came on the scene, they were dirt cheap. Sure, they could do less than a notebook, but, again, they were dirt cheap, they were small, and battery life was good. Just what you needed for Web browsing and light productivity work. Oh yeah, and they were dirt cheap, easily several hundred less than most notebooks except that once-in-a-blue-moon sale you might run across.
However, this didn't last. Companies started cramming more and more into these things, which drove the price up. In and of itself, that might have been OK, but notebook prices started coming down, and they offered more features. They were bigger, but you could do more with them, and I really believe that a significantly lower price is what drove netbook sales, not merely their size. So, people could spend maybe $250-$300 for a netbook, or, if they caught a sale, they could spend $350 for a basic notebook, which offered much more bang for the buck. That's what killed netbook sales, IMHO.
A friend of mine has one that I got a chance to try out. It's an interesting little device - I'm not going to get one, but then, it's not meant for me.
The iPad does notably excel in one simple thing that I have been missing for the past few years. It has no interface lag. My phone? When I'm switching screens, it lags for a couple seconds. My two year old laptop I got fed up with and threw out because the power jack kept breaking? Opening a directory took a noticable amount of time. Even my streamlined, power-user, performance gaming desktop has moments where its trying to access things and it chugs along before giving me any feedback.
The iPad's interface is responsive. It does what you want it to, when you want it to. When you drag an icon around, it responds immediately. When you poke at a link, it responds instantly with feedback - the webpage might take a moment to load, but it lets you know it's heard you immediately. And everything else in the environment remains responsive. You access the dropdowns, they come right down. You hit the 'menu' button, and you don't get 'the application is waiting to close' hourglass or anything like that, you get MENU.
I can see how that would appeal to many consumers in a world of stuttering, jerky computers.
They show a chart that lists declines in Netbook YoY growth from July of 2009, and cite the iPad as being the reason why. The iPad wasn't even ANNOUNCED until January of 2010.
The chart doesn't list netbook sales, but rather the rate of growth over the last year. You'll note that netbook sales still have positive growth.
So despite the fact there was this sudden MASSIVE surge to buy netbooks in the past two years, netbook sales continue to grow. But the growth rate of that surge did not continue upward. And even though the decline started six months before anyone had heard of an iPad, clearly this is all about the iPad.
Bull-fucking-shit. But nice try.
That being said, I'd buy an iPad at $200. For $300 or more, I expect more PC-like functioanlity and would prefer a netbook. In fact, Asus makes a nice convertible netbook/tablet that is cheaper than the iPad, has 10 times the storage, a faster processer, a webcam, I can install whatever software I want, it runs Flash, has more RAM, has a full keyboard built-in when I want it, etc. etc. etc.
If I can get that at $450, why would I want to spend so much more for far less functionality?
Oh, the i-before the name!
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