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Has Any Creative Work Failed Because of Piracy?

Andorin writes "Anyone familiar with the piracy debate knows about the claims from organizations like the RIAA that piracy causes billions of dollars in damages and costs thousands of jobs. Other studies have concluded differently, ranging from finding practically no damages to a newer study that cites 'up to 20%' as a more accurate number (PDF). I figure there's got to be an easier way to do this, so here's my question: Does anyone know of any creative works that were provably a financial failure due to piracy? The emphasis on 'provably' is important, as some form of evidence is necessary. Accurately and precisely quantifying damages from p2p is impossibly hard, of course, but answering questions like this may lead us to a clearer picture of just how harmful file sharing really is. I would think that if piracy does cause some amount of substantial harm, we would see that fact reflected in our creative works, but I've never heard of a work that tanked because people shared it online."

21 of 1,115 comments (clear)

  1. Short answer by girlintraining · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No.

    Gone must be the days when a creative work was loved for its contribution to the arts... Plato, Socrates -- failures, all of them, because their works are no longer copyrighted and thus can no longer make a contribution to society. /sarcasm

    --
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    1. Re:Short answer by djconrad · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Socrates never wrote a damn thing, and the critics still ruined his career.

    2. Re:Short answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      The short answer is also wrong and based strictly on your support of piracy and not the facts. I'm a writer/director and it's well known in the independent community that if you release a film you either have to sell distribution foreign and domestic at the same time or release it foreign first. Once it comes out in the US it will be pirated within days and no one will risk releasing it for sale in most territories. The Southeast Asian market is largely worthless due to rampant piracy. I was told by a distributor nearly ten years ago that my first film was selling side by side with 100 million dollar films in Malaysia for a $1 a copy. Foreign used to be a good market for independents but it has most dried up over the years due strictly to piracy. In the US it's gotten hard to even get a distributor because everyone is focusing on higher profit studio films. You can argue over the impact on big budget studio films but to say there's no impact is is denying what the ones on the ground are dealing with every day. I'm planning to be out of the film industry within two years because it's already nearly impossible to sell films as it is. What's happened is in order to hang onto their tightening profit margins the studios are squeezing out the independents. Anyone that thinks film profits are going up hasn't done their homework. Actual ticket sales have been falling for years. Increased ticket prices have somewhat offset the drop but they've maxed out what people will pay for tickets so over the next few years the box office take will start to drop. DVDs are faltering and over the next 18 months most of the brick and mortar stores will close up. There's less profit in the download rental services so that's more loss of revenue. Most of the films count on theater money to at least break even. The industry bet the farm on 3D out of desperation. It'll never last so one day those cash streams will dry up and films will become unprofitable. Already fewer films are made and released. It's not that people are watching fewer films they are simply starting to find ways around paying for watching films. The marginal films will die first but don't expect to see many blockbusters in ten years. George Lucas was dead on when he said by 2025 the average studio budget will drop back to 3 million dollars per film. That's more like what it was when he started out and that's without adjusting dollars. So what? How many 3 million dollar films have you watched in the last year? I'll bet they are mostly on the SciFi Channel. That's the future that is being created in large part due to piracy.

    3. Re:Short answer by b4dc0d3r · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I wish they would go straight to $3 million films. Cut out the overpaid actors, there's a great start. There are plenty of talented actors who would fill the headliners' shoes completely, and possibly better. The only reason they get so much money is because the name draws people into theaters.

      look what happens then. $25 million payday to star in a medicre movie, and the star agrees to do it, and their box office value starts dropping. They are using my ticket price to hire someone I know so I evaluate the movie on its stars instead of its plot. Then audiences enjoy the movie based on its writing or cinematography, or hate it for those reasons plus the actors' poor delivery.

      I loved Cruise in Tropic Thunder until I realized it was him. I can still enjoy the movie but it makes me feel uncomfortable because I've seen so many of his overacted crapfests. I loved Vanilla Sky despite him, mostly because the story was stolen (Obre los ojos) and slightly updated. There are people I will see in any movie because they only select good scripts and good directors/producers to work with, and the result is good. The actor does the filtering for me.

      Box office name recognition is the worst thing to happen to movies ever. I'm not just talking about actors, I'm talking about expensive licensing deals too. Pay a bunch of money, make a Batman movie, and it doesn't matter how terrible it is you're a millionaire. Video game movies, novel-based movies, anything with a well-known name. Name recognition is crap.

      Get a good script, good actors, and actually spend money promoting it like they do the big blockbusters. That's how you get people in the seats. Stop spending money on name recognition and the costs go down and audiences will return to movie-going. A $3 million movie with a $3 million advertising budget needs to sell maybe a million tickets to break even.

      Actors and licensees don't need to be set up for life on one movie. If acting is your job, you can live on $500k per year. That will cover plane tickets and expensive clothes. Do 2 movies per year and, minus taxes and expenses, you'll have a very comfortable life *working*, not spending my ticket money on hookers and blow and mansions for MTV's Cribs.

      Let's have the $3 million movie movie, I'm all for it.

  2. Actually Yes by JamesP · · Score: 5, Informative

    A film producer had his film stolen, and the thief got a lot of money for the screenings.

    The producer that ended penniless: Georges Melies

    The Thief: Thomas Edison

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Trip_to_the_Moon

    --
    how long until /. fixes commenting on Chrome?
  3. sort of.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I did some work for a man who paid to have drivers written for SCSI harddrives, a while a go, that was his edge over the competition. The competition simply pirated his drivers and sent him out of business. This may not be 'creative works' but the process is the same.

  4. Excellent call! by Penguinisto · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When I first read the title, I thought that kdawson (I know, I know) was asking if a creative work failed in the sense that no one accepted it, it was not disseminated, etc. Then TFS says "financial" failure.

    Problem is, the question (in any aspect) is too one-dimensional. Paul Gauguin was a financial failure, as were most painters who weren't sponsored by some aristocrat or other. Yet one would hardly call his (or their) works "failures" in most aspects of the term. Meanwhile, even in just the one aspect - money - well? Today, just try and buy an original Gauguin and say it's a failure. I dare you.

    Even with recent/modern creative endeavors, the question is stupid. If you're creating a work of (art, music, or similar) just for the money, that creation is almost guaranteed to suck. See also the products of Britney Spears (...remember her? no worries if you don't), "Lady Gaga", or whatever manufactured 'star' of the moment you care to name. Viewed dispassionately and apart from the personality, the music quite frankly sucks ass. If we shift to works of writing, you can almost always tell at which point a writer loses his/her passion for the craft, and instead just does it for the money - the quality drops accordingly. Visual art? Heh - I'll pick on The Simpsons... about five years ago, it was glaringly obvious that Matt was just doing it for the paycheck.

    But anyway, long story short - IMHO, the only way a work succeeds or fails is in the metric of how widely accepted it is, and in how long it remains in the public consciousness. The successes become treasures that never die in spite of passing centuries, the failures are forgotten in less than a decade no matter how widely marketed.

    /P

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    1. Re:Excellent call! by Antisyzygy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      To be fair, Lady Gaga has a LOT more talent than Brittney Spears.

      --
      That brings me to an interesting point, / . is just "the ramblings of socially-inept, technology-literate news-mongers".
    2. Re:Excellent call! by hitmark · · Score: 5, Insightful

      http://radar.oreilly.com/2006/08/piracy-is-progressive-taxation.html

      "Obscurity is a far greater threat to authors and creative artists than piracy."

      --
      comment first, facts later. http://chem.tufts.edu/AnswersInScience/RelativityofWrong.htm
  5. Re:Let the rationalizations begin by gilgongo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I write music for a living...I should only get paid for the first copy sold?

    Depends. If you're any good, I'd like to see you paid for about 7 years after you wrote the work. Then I'd like to see your work go into the public domain to be used by others in any way they want, for free. Meanwhile, you're going to write other stuff, because you're good at what you do, aren't you? If not, fuck off and stack shelves for a living, like me.

    The big problem at the moment is NOT that people are copying stuff, it's that artists (well, publishers really) are demanding payment for works for literally hundreds of years after they were first produced. That's wrong, and it must stop because without a public domain, you can forget about anyone producing any art at all.

    --
    "And the meaning of words; when they cease to function; when will it start worrying you?"
  6. Re:Lady Gaga sucks??? by Soilworker · · Score: 5, Funny

    Leeaavvee GAGAA AAAALONNEE!!!

  7. Re:Starsiege: Tribes took quite a hit from piracy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A good example of the absurdity of the "we wouldn't have bought it anyway argument." If Slashdotters weren't in denial because of their addiction to mass media content and aversion to paying a fair price for it (what rational person thinks 0 is a fair price for something they want?), they'd be able to see that some fraction of those 220k+ people would have bought the game in the absense of piracy. Maybe 5%, maybe 75%. Either way, infringement hurts producers of intellectual property and causes the market to produce and inefficiently low amount of it.

  8. Re:Lady Gaga sucks??? by Mister+Kay · · Score: 5, Funny

    Speak for yourself there buddy, I love lady Gaga to death!

    Sounds to me like a case of.... bad romance...
    <Insert groans here>

  9. Missing the point... by JoeMerchant · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The real damage caused by piracy aren't the works which were created and then failed to produce return on investment (this is all to easy to do without piracy), the real damage is done in works which are never created in the first place due to the perception that piracy would make them financially irrelevant. The poster is all concerned with "provably," but really, if you sit down with any group of investors and propose a new creative project, the provable effect of piracy is when the investors walk away from a project because they won't get their money back before pirates saturate their market with ripoffs.

    Even in patented space many works (especially medical devices) struggle to make a profit before patent protection runs out. Patents are more beneficial to the world at large in this respect - ideas which can be realized in a reasonable time are pursued, and then within 20 years they become public domain. The effective infinite life of Copyright is wrong on so many levels. I think a reasonably time limited copyright scheme would be more respected / less violated, and more productive in the creation of new works, as opposed to the infinite repackaging of existing brands that we have today.

    1. Re:Missing the point... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are begging the question.

      How many walk away because their product will not make a profit... based on how many in the past have failed, due to piracy? You have to have one before the other will happen. So, the question is: have any actually failed? If not, why would they walk away?

      The Movie industry has been crying foul (one major studio CEO recently said in a speech that piracy is "killing the industry")... while that same industry has been racking up record profits. Sorry, but that made my bullshit detector go off the charts.

      The music industry has seen declining CD sales... but there are numerous possible reasons for CD sales to be in decline without even considering piracy (like the fact that the music industry refused to change and give people what they want today). Some of those reasons no doubt actually apply.

      So the question still comes back to: has anything really failed financially because of piracy? And "creative accounting" is not acceptable... we all know how the movie studios make movies look like they are losing money so they don't have to pay out percentages. An example from just the other day was how Harry Potter brought in $977 million (almost a billion) dollars, yet the studios used creative accounting to "show" that this most successful series of all time "lost" $167 million. And the courts are starting to call them on it.

      I do agree that the extension of Copyright beyond all reason needs to change. Copyright was created for the good of the public. But the public does not benefit if the Copyright lasts 100 years or more!

    2. Re:Missing the point... by Artifakt · · Score: 5, Insightful

      1. The law needs to be built on facts: If there aren't some provable cases, how can the law impose punitive damages fairly? Remember, for the US, there's the cruel and unusual punishment angle - if there are no provable cases of piracy stifling creative expression, then one of the grounds for the law's severity is undermined, and so the argument that the law is unconstitutionally cruel gains weight.

      2. How can there possibly be works that were never made because of piracy without there also being works that were attempted and failed? Are you seriously claiming that every film that bombed at the box office for one reason or another somehow proves the producers have perfect judgement about avoiding the risks caused by piracy, so they never attempt to make the ones that fail from that cause? If the various Heaven's Gate's and Howard the Duck's don't prove that Hollywood, at least, can fail abysmally to evaluate risks rationally, then no wonder you're arguing against proof, because to you nothing what-so-ever can be proved. Admit that they sometimes get it wrong, and if piracy is one of the factors in any significant way, there will simply have to be the product that failed from piracy. Provably.

      With that said, a possible damage caused by piracy might well be works never created in the first place. If there are some provable cases where someone can demonstrate investors at least should have walked away because of piracy, then we can infer that piracy caused damage, either in the form of losses if they went ahead anyway, or your 'damage if the project was never made'. But claiming that piracy causes only the type of damage that, by you, can't be proved is also claiming that a bunch of big commercial content holders have perfect track records - obviously false to fact.

      --
      Who is John Cabal?
  10. I think there's something to that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Back in my highschool and university days, I pirated a lot. Reason was money. I had little discretionary income so I'd take things where I could get it. However as I've gotten older and moved on to the working world, I've little need to pirate stuff. I simply buy it. It is faster and easier, plus I really do like doing the right thing.

    Few, if any, sales were lost to my piracy. I simply could not afford the things I was pirating.

    1. Re:I think there's something to that by Runaway1956 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      You missed GP's point. Today, he has money to waste on entertainment. He just PAYS FOR IT, because it really is faster, and easier. The pirate who wants to play Super Duper Mario Brothers Meet the Exterminator and Predator has to find a download, find a crack, apply the crack, etc ad nauseum. Then, he probably can't play the online version, which includes the "value added" appearance of Alien.

      Piracy is work, in case you hadn't noticed. People who are willing to spend no money, no time, and no effort to get their games/music/entertainment have to do without.

      I agree, companies need to fight piracy, but following a mindless nazi doctrine that all pirates are evil and should be exterminated is as stupid as stupid gets.

      Jim Baen, over at Baen Books came to understand that. He fought piracy by giving away books. http://www.baen.com/library/ Somewhere on their site, is a rather long discourse, in which Baen Books proves that every time they give away a book, especially an older, out of print book, not only does Baen realize a profit, but so does the author whose books was released for free.

      Wake up and smell the coffee. Cooperating with the pirates can be lucrative.

      Game producers could take a hint, and release a "pirated" version of their game, put it up on the torrent sites, sit back and allow the wider community to pay for distribution - then wait for a lot of pirates to come back and pay for the "value added" version that includes Alien.

      --
      "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
  11. The Bilestoad, Apple II, 1980s by jvbh · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Excerpt from an interview with the author, Marc Goodman at http://www.dadgum.com/halcyon/BOOK/GOODMAN.HTM

    The game seemed popular and received great reviews. Did it do well commercially?

    Nope. Datamost only sold around 5,000 copies of the game. I've gotten email from a lot of people and even met people who know and love the game and you know what? I've never met or talked to anyone who had an official copy.

    Pretty frequently I see the recurring threads on software piracy on various newsgroups. People really believe that there is no impact from their copying software. Well, there is an impact. I couldn't support myself by writing computer games, so "The Bilestoad" was the last game I did.

  12. I expect any real example will be naysayed, but... by seibai · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I used to work in the independent games industry. In 2004, I designed and wrote a little Action-Puzzle game titled Drop! (feel free to look it up on GameFaqs). We sold it in stores for $10, and online for $5, however, we got $.33 per retail copy sold (blame publishers) vs. $2.50 or so per online copy sold. We sold a few hundred thousand copies or so at retail across a 6 month period (#4 for sales for a couple months, but no one pays attention to jewel case games).

    Here's the trick: the online version had an online high-score system. You could play the online copy for free, but you didn't get access to the shared high-score system unless you bought it. We sold less than 100 copies online, but saw several hundred thousand unique IP addresses hit the high score system every day (and this kept up for years, not just people "trying out the high score system").

    For 6 months of work, I made about $30,000 on that (a couple other guys made similar amounts), which eventually didn't justify the effort - because people who want to play a game don't care about making it possible for the creators to keep making games.

    I work for Microsoft now :P

  13. Re:He sega dreamcast by PitaBred · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Bullshit. The Dreamcast was the last Sega console because of a number of missteps by the company, and because developers were scared of it turning into a SegaCD or 32x or Saturn, so didn't want to commit the resources to developing titles. It had nothing to do with piracy.

    http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1572800/why_the_dreamcast_failed.html