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Android Users Aren't As Disloyal As Reported

ergo98 writes "As we discussed recently, a CNN article had a statement that '77% of iPhone owners say they'll buy another iPhone, compared to 20% of Android customers who say they'll buy another Android phone.' This was a gross misrepresentation. The CNN story now has up this note: 'Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said that 20% of Android customers say they'll buy another Android phone. The survey actually revealed that 20% of all smartphone customers say they'll buy an Android phone.' The Yankee Group has further sought to clarify the situation by saying that the 20% are people who explicitly said they would buy a 'Google-branded' phone (which excludes the overwhelming majority of popular Android phones) — as Google gets out of the business of selling branded phones. Summarizing their position on Android: 'Yankee Group still believes that Android will become the next breakout mobile phone platform, making it the third most popular platform behind iPhone and RIM's Blackberry in installed base for at least the next five years.'"

37 of 246 comments (clear)

  1. Confirmation Bias? by recoiledsnake · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Someone here got accused of confirmation bias for doubting the study.

    by gyrogeerloose (849181)
    Alter Relationship
    on Saturday July 24, @06:08PM (#33016628)

    Who did they ask? People inside of Apple's campus.. You've got to be kidding me.

    Got to love it--some research challenges your preconceived notions so, of course, the only thing to do is reconsider said notions, right?

    Wrong. Better to disparage the research than admit they might have been incorrect.

    Come on, parent is not a troll. (Score:3, Insightful)
    by Abcd1234 (188840)
    Alter Relationship
    on Saturday July 24, @06:17PM (#33016700) Homepage

    In fact, he nailed it spot on. The GP doesn't like the conclusions of the study, so he just assumes the study or the researchers are wrong. It's an excellent illustration of confirmation bias (or, in this case, its inverse).

    Maybe it was actually confirmation bias from the said Apple fan, that Android was so disliked and hence he got taken in by the false report?

    --
    This space for rent.
    1. Re:Confirmation Bias? by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Maybe it was actually confirmation bias from the said Apple fan, that Android was so disliked and hence he got taken in by the false report?

      Why does this have to be an 'either/or' question? We all know surveys like this don't really provide an actual usable data.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    2. Re:Confirmation Bias? by MintOreo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Woo, my confirmation bias tells me your incredulity is confirmation bias.

      In my experience people who bemoan others for 'preconceived notions' are most often the ones truly guilty of it. Similarly, to be 'open-minded' has simply come to mean 'alternately' or 'unconventionally' 'minded'. Sad world we live in where cultural-mental 'progress' is merely a shift and all the same problems exist; but I've gotten off topic.

    3. Re:Confirmation Bias? by therealobsideus · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Maybe it was actually confirmation bias from the said Apple fan, that Android was so disliked and hence he got taken in by the false report?

      An apple fan . . . admit they're wrong about Apple being the greatest thing since sliced bread? What weird world did you come from.

      I'm an Apple fan, yet I have no problem admitting when they are wrong and their product shortcomings.

    4. Re:Confirmation Bias? by WrongSizeGlass · · Score: 2, Funny

      Why does this have to be an 'either/or' question? We all know surveys like this don't really provide an actual usable data.

      Actually, 77% of these surveys don't really provide usable data. 20% want to be an Android survey.

    5. Re:Confirmation Bias? by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Funny

      And Linux/Open Source Zealots are any different. Any Statics against Open Source are obviously false. Any stats for get a bunch of "About Time!" posts. Zealotry/Fan Boyism will lead to endless debates and complaints.

      Apple is Evil
      Linux is Lame
      Windows is washed up.

      They all have their weeknesses zealotry on any product really hurts the product you are zealot about. Because you turn a blind eye on many of its faults and failed to see the other sides strengths.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    6. Re:Confirmation Bias? by dgatwood · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm going to guess neither. I'd imagine it was more of an application of Sagan's Law: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

      A study that says that a popular smartphone OS is so bad that only 20% of its users plan to buy another one is an extraordinary claim. If that were true, there's no way that a second or third manufacturer would start building phones based on the same OS and technology, much less the almost two DOZEN smartphone makers currently building Android-based phones. Even as an iPhone user, I'd have a had time believing that sort of a stat. It's just absurd on the face of it.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  2. I sense a disturbance in the force by GrumpySteen · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's as if millions of fanboys suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced

    1. Re:I sense a disturbance in the force by interkin3tic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's as if millions of fanboys suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced

      and replaced by the cries of millions of opposing fanboys.

  3. What an Idiotic Blunder by ceraphis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Not only did I not trust Yankee Group's numbers before, but now I realize they asked an ignorant question about "google branded" phones? What the hell sense does that have in a comparison between iPhones and Android phones? I'll be sure to consider immediately discarding any statistics released by "Yankee Group" in the future, because they could have just "accidentally" forgot to mention some important detail. Ridiculous.

    1. Re:What an Idiotic Blunder by DriedClexler · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Some non-nexus phones are google branded. For example, I have a samsung moment, and it says "Google" on the outside in permanent lettering. So some android phones are additionally google branded

      Still, it's pretty stupid to equate android with google branding.

      --
      Information theory is life. The rest is just the KL divergence.
    2. Re:What an Idiotic Blunder by OverlordQ · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I'll be sure to consider immediately discarding any statistics released by "Yankee Group" in the future, because they could have just "accidentally" forgot to mention some important detail. Ridiculous.

      It's not their fault CNN Money fails at reading comprehension and cannot gist data correctly.

      --
      Your hair look like poop, Bob! - Wanker.
    3. Re:What an Idiotic Blunder by Em+Ellel · · Score: 2, Informative

      Some non-nexus phones are google branded. For example, I have a samsung moment, and it says "Google" on the outside in permanent lettering. So some android phones are additionally google branded

      Still, it's pretty stupid to equate android with google branding.

      If you read the links, "Google Branded" only includes phones manufactured under Google name (i.e. Nexus One) - does not include the "Google Inside" stickers on some Android phones. They only collected data on manufacturer name of the phone, not os - so they have no idea on Android stats as same manufacturers would manufacture non-Android phones.

      -Em

      --
      RelevantElephants: A Somatic WebComic...
  4. How many Android users know what they're using? by Kenja · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I know a number of people who have "that cool phone" or "the phone I saw on that tv show". They dont know its Android since thats not really a brand name. This is expounded by how different the UI elements are on different brands Android phones. HTC looks quite different from Motorola (stupid moto-blur) and so on. Some manufacturers are even rebranding Google funconality, see the "Genius Button".

    --

    "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
    1. Re:How many Android users know what they're using? by 16K+Ram+Pack · · Score: 2, Interesting

      In the UK, the phone shops are now mentioning that phones are Android.

    2. Re:How many Android users know what they're using? by Kenja · · Score: 4, Interesting

      And in the UK "Android" phone sales are up 300%.

      --

      "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
  5. My wife likes her HTC Magic by MichaelSmith · · Score: 3, Interesting

    In fact it is the only technological device she doesn't constantly complain about. The way it is going she will get a new phone of the same type when this one comes off contract.

  6. Another phone? by Hatta · · Score: 2, Funny

    Why would you need two phones?

    --
    Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    1. Re:Another phone? by unix1 · · Score: 3, Informative

      As a backup?

    2. Re:Another phone? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Funny

      So you can use the second to make calls when your first has antenna problems...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  7. It's still looks pretty bad...but it's not. by MrCrassic · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A lot of people automatically associate Android with Google because the first line of Android-capable phones (G1, Hero, myTouch3G) were marketed that way. In fact, I think the release of the Droid on Verizon officially put a stop to that trend, but I'm not entirely sure about that. Thus, I'd say that surveying how many are likely to get Google-branded phones is a pretty reasonable indicator of how well Android is doing in the marketplace.

    Nonetheless, even though Android doesn't seem to be getting a lot of love lately (or at least according to this survey), the thing to keep in mind is that Android's market presence has become notably stronger since the G1 came out. I honestly think that from a phone perspective, the Nexus One had serious potential to realistically compete with the iPhone (3GS) behemoth, considering that it's similar to the iPhone while offering a completely different, and completely usable, experience at a lower price. It's a shame that Google (and T-Mobile!) didn't promote the phone as actively as they could have; it had TONS of potential. Look at how well the Droid's doing on Verizon! (Yes, the Samsung Galaxy S line is much more feature-rich, but it's a toy. The Nexus One was a statement...and a damned good looking one.)

    Let's put it this way: at least it's not just Blackberry and Windows Mobile anymore!

    1. Re:It's still looks pretty bad...but it's not. by MrCrassic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It was a great success. Look at the phones that have been released before (Droid, Aria, Espresso, Behold, etc.) and after (Droid X, Galaxy S, EVO) the Nexus One. I won't say that it was directly responsible for the proliferation of seriously powerful and (reasonably) feature-packed devices, but it did push the platform forward just like the G1 did.

      I think Google will make another effort down the line. Android seems to be losing its focus, since it's becoming a lot like Windows Mobile in its execution. The ONLY phone shipping the "Google Experience" (i.e. Android as intended, more or less) was the Nexus One, every other phone out there has some sort of skin FORCEFULLY installed on it (HTC Sense, MOTOBLUR, TouchWiz, etc). To further feed the fire, many of those phones have tons of applications that are completely unnecessary and only seem to help the carrier --- COMPLETELY like the carrier-provided smart (and dumb!) phones that came before the smartphone explosion.

      Forget the fact that most of these phones are a bit difficult to root/unlock. When a person buys an iPhone, they get software that, in its stock form, is EXACTLY as Apple intended it. It doesn't have Facebook or anything like that pre-installed; the user get the Apple bits right from the beginning, and everything added after that is entirely up to him or her. Not so when you buy Android...and the sad part is that the stock UI is actually quite good! It's not like Windows Mobile where HTC et. al. HAD to put TouchFLO/Sense on top of it because it was fugly compared to everything else out there.

      Look at TouchWiz on the Vibrant, for instance. It tries really, really hard to provide an iPhone-like interface in hopes of being easy to use. The only problem is that it's not. They COULD try and provide something 'different' (which a LOT of people would probably appreciate, if it works) like HTC does with Sense, but that would make way too much sense.

    2. Re:It's still looks pretty bad...but it's not. by wfolta · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Android seems to be losing its focus, since it's becoming a lot like Windows Mobile in its execution. The ONLY phone shipping the "Google Experience" (i.e. Android as intended, more or less) was the Nexus One, every other phone out there has some sort of skin FORCEFULLY installed on it (HTC Sense, MOTOBLUR, TouchWiz, etc). To further feed the fire, many of those phones have tons of applications that are completely unnecessary and only seem to help the carrier --- COMPLETELY like the carrier-provided smart (and dumb!) phones that came before the smartphone explosion.

      Apple's customer is the consumer, and they will fight the carriers to create the experience they believe the consumer will want. They may not deliver an experience you (or I) want, but they are trying to deliver an experience for an end user.

      Google's customers are the carriers. They only want to keep the smartphone market segmented and open to their ad/search control. As long as they can sell your eyes and your personal information, they really don't care what your personal experience is. (Except it can't get SO bad that you can't stand to use any Android phone/carrier at all, robbing them of their real income.)

      The only thing holding carriers back from totally ruining handsets again is the iPhone and a fanatical Steve Jobs who simply will not allow carriers to mess with things. Other carriers have seen how successful the iPhone is, and so have to at least make as if they care about customers and good design now. If Android trounced the iPhone and Apple went broke next year, we'd soon be back to the worst-of-all-possible-worlds ideas of addware-ladened PCs combined with carrier-controlled designs and restrictions.

  8. Push Poll by TheMeuge · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is a marketing strategy known as the Push Poll (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll).

    You ask the questions in such a way as to get the answer you want.

  9. Sad to see Google bail on the hardware by Eponymous+Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I really disappointed that Google is going to stop selling handsets. I was waiting for a Nexus Two.

    I want a phone that has a pure (plain?) Android experience. I don't want the layers that Motorola and HTC add to differentiate themselves, not to mention all the bloatware. It wouldn't bother me so much if I was able to reformat a phone in the same way I can reformat a Dell or HP machine to clear off all the crap, but as far as I know, I can't.

    1. Re:Sad to see Google bail on the hardware by blair1q · · Score: 2, Funny

      No dice. This year they're all getting turkeys.

    2. Re:Sad to see Google bail on the hardware by daemonc · · Score: 2, Funny

      Personally, I was waiting for the Nexus 6 model... it's seen things you people wouldn't believe.

      --
      All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream.
    3. Re:Sad to see Google bail on the hardware by bm_luethke · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There are a number of Android phones that can have custom (or vanilla) roms flashed onto them. It's not really any harder now than reinstalling a stock version of an OS on your pc (instead of the rescue disks crap they give you now). The vast majority of the process is quite automated now.

      See http://www.mydroidworld.com/ and their forums for the current state of what phones can bee rooted and what phones can be reflashed and with what. Heck many of the phones can even be overclocked if you so desire :)

      --
      ------- Sorry about the spelling, I suffer from two problems. Dyslexia makes it difficult to spell well, lazy makes it
  10. So tired of phone drama by scromp · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Buy whatever phone you like and shut up about it.

  11. Re:iPhone will lose by Nerdfest · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'd like to think that as well, but they do seem to enjoy it.

  12. Re:Strange article by Snarky+McButtface · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The CNN article only told half the story.

  13. Re:Statistics by shaitand · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Simple, the article is written by an Apple fanboi who is trying to find some way to skew things in Apple's favor.

    Apple has 28% of the smartphone market, Android has 9%. 20% of ALL smartphone users say they are going to buy Android for their next phone. In other words, even if 100% of iPhone owners were saying they'd buy another IPhone the numbers indicate Android will soon overtake the IPhone in marketshare.

    But they don't, only 77% say they intend to stick with the IPhone, indicating that while android should rise to 29% apple will drop from 28%.

  14. The Yankee Group by gavron · · Score: 3, Informative

    The Yankee Group has been a microsoft shil for years!

    Do the math.

    I'm not sure how much of a "group" they are. After all, they have more directors and officers than "analysts." Still I'm sure the microsoft money is good.. http://www.yankeegroup.com/listAnalysts.do

    E

  15. Re:Statistics by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

    It's the statistical equivalent of the question:

    "Do you walk to school or bring your lunch"?

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  16. Re:Statistics by medlefsen · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think your math is a bit off

    20% of all smartphone users say they are going to buy Android, including current Android owners. Pretending for a second that people actually do what they say they'll do and that everybody upgrades their phones at the same time, Android would get 20% of the market.

    We know that 77% of current iPhone users will buy another one but we don't know about how many the other 72% of smartphone users will buy iPhones. So all we know is that at least 21% (28% * 77%) of current smart phone owners will buy an iPhone, but it's likely to be much higher.

  17. Re:Statistics by rtb61 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The maths is all a bit off, unknown survey, with unknown breakdown, using unknown group, says 15 percent of cows jump over the moon (not maths that wrong). Seriously your playing with numbers from a survey with undeclared methods, you have got to be joking.

    The reality is the majority of smart phone users will end up going with Android for two main reasons, lots of hardware choice (including a lot of cheaper hardware), service supplier choice and of course 'free' application choice. Google only ever produced it's own branded phone to kick up interest in Android, once that was done and it did work really well, they dropped it.

    Even the android demo on PC under windows is popular, hopefully Google will produce a 'one click' download and install so that more people can more readily play with it (rather a smack in M$'s nose if people really like it and continue to use is as a app). The Apple market'droids' are working overtime pretending to be fanbois and it isn't really working and is really starting to become rather distasteful.

    Apple has some really creative people, perhaps it is time to shift to a web focus and show M$ how a better company can creative a far more successful version of MSN under another name, hmm, how about, the 'core' ;).

    --
    Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  18. Re:Statistics by Internal+Modem · · Score: 2, Informative

    Google branded does not mean it's a Google phone. All HTC Android phones are Google branded (not just the N1). Verizon Droids are Google branded.