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Ray Kurzweil Does Not Understand the Brain
jamie writes "There he goes again, making up nonsense and making ridiculous claims that have no relationship to reality. Ray Kurzweil must be able to spin out a good line of bafflegab, because he seems to have the tech media convinced..."
The singularity is to nerds what the rapture is to fundamentalist protestant wackjobs....
Would be nice if the summary even hinted at what the ridiculous claim actually WAS...
Namely, that we'll be able to reverse engineer the human brain in the next 10 years.
...he must be right! He used math, and everything! I'm a little shocked that Kurzweil equates blueprints with the functioning organ. I am not shocked, however, that the tech media latched onto this--at first blush it sounds so *reasonable.*
Kurtzweil is just the latest in a long line. How do you think publications like Fast Company and Wired get written?
And does anybody remember JonKatz?
Try reading the rest of the article, not just the pretty quoted stuff...
His latest claim is that we'll be able to reverse engineer the human brain within a decade
Amateur. I could put something together to simulate the human brain in about 8 months.
(Plus another 3 minutes at the start)
Summation 2
FTFA: The end result is a brain that is much, much more than simply the sum of the nucleotides that encode a few thousand proteins.
Likewise, the end result of a computer is much, much more than simply the sum of the commands that encode a CPUs instruction set.
Sejnowski says he agrees with Kurzweil's assessment that about a million lines of code may be enough to simulate the human brain.
Here's how that math works, Kurzweil explains: The design of the brain is in the genome. The human genome has three billion base pairs or six billion bits, which is about 800 million bytes before compression, he says. Eliminating redundancies and applying loss-less compression, that information can be compressed into about 50 million bytes, according to Kurzweil.
About half of that is the brain, which comes down to 25 million bytes, or a million lines of code.
Idiot. The design of the brain is encoded in the genome in the same way that the design of a 4KiB program is encoded in its load module: useful for running the program on its original hardware.
But then you have architectural issues. That 4KiB of information does not run unless it's supported by a complex operating system, which itself is supported by complex logic in an ISA and memory managment architecture backing it up. And all that is implemented on a specific design in a specific physics model.
Translating that program to SPARC takes work, and it comes out roughly the same size. Translating that program to a progression of chemical reactions produces something vastly different, especially since you need a new middle ware (chemical environment) running on top of different physics (chemistry).
Translating a physical architectural design from chemistry to computer logic on top a given ISA is the same problem. You now have odd issues that are messy, and then the program running on the brain needs to be built again. That program is even more complex and less known.
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I'm not even sure what to say about this statement
I wish I could get a job as a futurist....think about it:
"What do you think is going to happen in the future???"
"Um...dogs will bring soda to you when you whistle a Cradle of Filth song?"
"OMFG THATZ BRILLIANT. HERE R MONIES, PLZ HAS MAH BABBIES!"
Living With a Nerd
Ray Kurzweil is yet another computer programmer blathering on about things that he has no understanding on. The vast majority of software people I know do that, I don't understand why this guy gets to publish books on it.
Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.
Ray Kurzweil is yet another computer programmer blathering on about things that he has no understanding on.
Get Kurzweil a slashdot account, stat!
Would be nice if the summary even hinted at what the ridiculous claim actually WAS... Namely, that we'll be able to reverse engineer the human brain in the next 10 years.
It's a little more complicated than that. You see, the article actually breaks down the logic behind that statement and points out how poor it is. Here's the initial part of Kurzweil's argument:
Sejnowski says he agrees with Kurzweil's assessment that about a million lines of code may be enough to simulate the human brain.
Here's how that math works, Kurzweil explains: The design of the brain is in the genome. The human genome has three billion base pairs or six billion bits, which is about 800 million bytes before compression, he says. Eliminating redundancies and applying loss-less compression, that information can be compressed into about 50 million bytes, according to Kurzweil.
About half of that is the brain, which comes down to 25 million bytes, or a million lines of code.
I have only taken high school biology but I know that the genome doesn't magically become the brain. It goes through a very complex process to amino acids which fold into proteins which in turn make cells that in turn make tissues that in turn comprise the human brain. To say we fully understand this transformation entirely is a complete and utter falsity as demonstrated by our novice understanding of the twisted beta amyloid protein that we think leads to Alzheimer's. How amino acids turn into which proteins I believe is largely an unsolved search problem that we don't understand (hence efforts like Folding@Home). And he claims that in ten years not only will we understand this process but we will ... reverse engineer it?
The man is insane. I've posted about this same biologist criticizing him before and it looks like P.Z. Myers just decided to take some extra time to point out how imprudent Kurzweil's statements are becoming. Kurzweil will show you tiny pieces of the puzzle that support his wild conclusions and leave you in the dark about the full picture and pieces that directly contradict his statements. This is a dangerous and deceptive practice that -- despite my respect for Kurzweil's work in other fields -- is rapidly turning me off to him and his 'singularity.' He's becoming more Colonel Kurtz than Computer Kurzweil.
My work here is dung.
"Read it. Other than the solid date he predicts, it's pretty plausable."
No it's not. If it was possible to do in a million lines of code, it would have been done by now. Windows XP had something like 40 million lines of code. While we can agree it was probably coded relatively inefficiently, there is no way that any OS even comes close to the complexity of the brain.
Let's see. On another recent article it was stated that the average car has several million lines of code running in it. I haven't come across a sentient Prius yet.
And there's that pesky parallel processing the brain does. I don't think that a rack full of Nvidia Tesla cards can approach the average two year old's parallel processing capability.
I agree, Kurzweil is smoking something and not sharing.
Aside from the article, it would appear arbitrary to apply loss-less compression to the LOC.
Code must be very very compressible losslessly (I am betting like 90%, as plain text is often 80% when zipping). This would imply to me that one would need 10 times as many LOC as the (faulty) premise assumes.
The article itself points out that it is not just a matter of writing the code, but also simulating the machine. So yes, if we could accurately make a machine (real or virtual) that could compute the way that DNA computes perhaps we could then make a brain that functions in it with not too much code, but it does not follow that we can just a tersely describe it on a computer as we have them (Turing Machine?).
Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
I haven't read the article yet, but Ray Kurtzweil is a technology speculator - like a sci-fi writer except that he doesn't make up a story to go with his ideas and tries harder to convince people they're actually going to happen. He wrote "The age of intelligent machines" and "The age of spiritual machines" where he takes a hard AI stance that computer thought can become indistinguishable from human thought. He is also a proponent of technological singularity.
Generally his ideas aren't taken very seriously by academia in Computer Science, or at least that has been my experience. The philosophy department at my university sometimes enjoyed going over his ideas; but the philosophy department at my university was very fond of pseudoscience.
Sejnowski says he agrees with Kurzweil's assessment that about a million lines of code may be enough to simulate the human brain.
Kurzweil explains: The design of the brain is in the genome. The human genome has three billion base pairs or six billion bits, which is about 800 million bytes before compression, he says.Eliminating redundancies and applying loss-less compression, that information can be compressed into about 50 million bytes, according to Kurzweil.
Dude, the equations of quantum mechanics can be written on one page. General Relativity can be written on a second page. What more do you need ? Clearly, a few hundred lines of code (and a few do loops) should be enough to simulate the entire universe, brains and all.
Glad we cleared that up. All you physicists and astronomers can go home now and work on your resumes.
To simplify it so a computer science ignorant biologist with a tendency to inane rants can possibly get it, you don't need to simulate electrons in a semi-conductive material at specific temperatures in order to build a complete working emulator for an old computer.
"I love my job, but I hate talking to people like you" (Freddie Mercury)
...except, maybe, Pinky.
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What do you mean "infinite"? The human brain is composed of one hundred billion or so neurons. Looks like it's pretty much finite to me. I have ten times as many bytes of information in my hard disk.
He actually has one.. And he's a dick, too.
He's doing the calculation the wrong direction!
The genome contains enough information to build the brain from raw materials. However, this data has already been losslessly compressed by countless generations of evolution. We would need to discover the evolved compression algorithm to "unpack" the 800 million bytes into the 3.2 billion bytes (using his factor-of-4 ratio) in order to begin understanding it.
Scanning down the comment list, it looks like every (+2 or more) comment has read the article and is quoting from it -- what has happened to the slashdot I knew and loved?
I mod down anyone who says "I will be modded down for this", regardless of the rest of their comment
Which account is it?
PS: Go fuck yourself.
if you rtfa you'll see that the million lines of code only gives you the proteins that make up the brain - i.e., it gives you a parts list and a delivery schedule, not a set of assembly intstructions. The genome doesn't give you how the proteins interact, in usually complex ways (i.e., three or more proteins interacting simultaneously), in billions of cells in parallel, over the course of 9 months to give us an infant brain (even leaving aside the tremendous amount of development that takes place in the brain during childhood).
As the author of tfa writes: To simplify it so a computer science guy can get it, Kurzweil has everything completely wrong. The genome is not the program; it's the data.
IOW, the program is the developing organism itself, the complex protein interactions and it's (uterine) environment none of which are encoded in the genome. The organism uses the data encoded in the genome to produce proteins which interact with each other and the organism and its environment to grow cells which eventually form a brain.
The mistake in Kurzweil's thinking is the typical mistake engineers make when dealing with biology; the enviroments into which engineers place their designs do not typically spontaneously cooperate in the construction of the engineer's design. When an engineer designs a circuit board, his lab bench doesn't spontaneously start soldering connections and adding components for him and automatically complete parts of the design
without his explicit instructions. But the organism does precisely this with proteins syntesised from the genome.
As a result, the genome alone cannot possibly tell you how to "make" an organism, because the genome only tells you the parts list and delivery schedule for the organism, not the assembly instructions. The assembly instructions are not explicit anywhere in the system; the assembly instructions are implicit in the combination of the complex behavior of the cells of the developing organism, the uterine environment and the very complex ways the proteins sythensized from the genome interact.
In order to extract the actuall assembly instructions we'd need a full blown molecular biology simulator that could correctly simulate:
1. protein folding (still unsolved)
2. comlex multi-protein interaction (still unsolved)
3. simultaneous behavior and development, (i.e., in parallel) of billions of living cells each undergoing trillions of chemical reactions per second (computationally prohibitive)
IOW, it's not going to happen in the next 10 years.
I've never read anything hinting that the way to simulate a human brain would be to simulate how the molecules in the brain behave. [...] From the number on neurons in the human brain, considering how many interconnections there are and how fast the neurons can fire, I think a machine with one million processing cores at 1 GHz would have approximately the same data handling capacity as a human brain. The rest is software. Neural network software is pretty much routine stuff, the tricky part is learning what are the interconnections between the neurons.
Neurons constitute about half of the brain. About the rest we know pretty much nothing at all (when compared to neurons). What we know at least is that this "rest" plays a role in several aspects of information processing, learning and in all major diseases of the CNS and that it cannot be reduced to spiking neuron models. If it was possible to model the brain as a relatively simple neural network we would have done it 15 years ago and our inability to do so has a lot to do with modeling the behavior of a little number of molecules. I am not an expert programmer but I know enough to say that the complexity of the brain is way beyond what any human being has ever designed.
Yes. Well done. Did you try reading the article that you are criticising because it rips your point apart fairly easily. The thing about an upper limit is that it should be at least as large as the thing that you are estimating. The article shows quite conclusively that Kurzweil's "upper limit" is far too small because he knows nothing about brains and pulled some numbers out of his arse.
That "tangent" that Myers went off of was a reasonable argument for why the amount of information described is not sufficient to simulate a brain. Not least because it is a highly compressed description of a process that builds a brain. It is not a description of a brain itself. Furthermore to use that description to build an actual model of the brain you need to understand all of the biological processes that are relevant in executing that construction code, and the environment that they run in.
Oh the irony, it's burning my eyes. You're defending somebody who was caught babbling about something they don't understand by repeating the trick. Well done you.
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I don't think the claim is entirely implausible; 25MB of code may well suffice to simulate the human brain if it was written in something like brainfuck.
I do however disagree with the assertion:
The difficulty in truly understanding the genome is that it's both program and data.
You also lack an understanding of what is involved in the functioning brain.
Biochemistry is incredibly important. The brain is not just a neural network; it is an electrochemical organ and the chemicals floating around in there greatly affect the operation of neurons. There is no distinction between "hardware" and "software" in the brain--every new thought or stimulus causes the physical structure to change: neurons form new pathways, areas get flooded with neurotransmitters, etc. This shit is way more complex than you believe, and not in a way that is friendly to computation.
Computer people like to think that if we just throw enough cores at the idea it will magically come to fruition. In reality there are many important differences between brains and computers, enough that I don't think digital computers are going to be more than a dead end. I could maybe see implants that let us control real-world stuff with concentrated thought, but that's about the limit of digital interfaces.
Your brain is not a computer.
I'm not sure what it is about his claims that are supposed to be so ludicrous. For example, a million lines of code seems at least plausible, as long as we bear in mind the following:
1. We're not trying to mimic the brain at the protein level, rather at the broader, inter-neuron level (and whatever complex intra neuron behaviour we discover).
2. The million lines of code don't need to encompass the capacity of the brain, just its general neural architecture and adaption rules - there will no doubt be many gigabytes (terabytes?) of working memory, which would actually store the neural connections and whatever parameters they may have.
To be honest, the authors of this article seem to be rather too cocksure in dismissing all this. Even the apparent agreement of Terry Sejnowski (co-inventor of the boltzmann machine) doesn't give them pause. I'm not that familiar with Kurzweil's predictions, but this seems fairly reasonable to me.
There is a google tech talk by Geoff Hinton on restricted boltzmann machines, (a sort of stochastic neural network) that's well worth a watch, for those that are interested. They are considered biologically plausible, and he seems mostly to apply them to machine vision tasks.
Ray's documentary about the Singularity has been touring the national film festivals along with Ray. I saw it June. Its begins as a dull-talking heads piece about the current state of A.I. Many of the Big Name A.I. Scientists are interviewed. Then it transitions into a crime-drama story about the legal rights of A.I.s. That part was more interesting, since it had a story. The film is full of special effects to advance the story. Although I know most of the film to be factual, I suspect it will look like a scifi movie to the average audience member. I think Ray is seeking looking at broader distribution on cable television or arts theaters after the festival run.
Ray was interesting in person during a film-makers Q&A. He reminded me of Woody Allen, but more confident and intelligent. He was graduated from M.I.T. about decade before myself. I personally believe in the Singularity, but more likely in centuries rather than decades.
From the number on neurons in the human brain, considering how many interconnections there are and how fast the neurons can fire, I think a machine with one million processing cores at 1 GHz would have approximately the same data handling capacity as a human brain.
We are not sure yet whether the equation :
"human brain" = "some current technology" * "some large number"
has merit or not.
I wish we were there, but the vast majority of neuroscientists currently think this NOT to be the case. There is likely some qualitative difference that we still fail to understand. Assuming the equation above to be true, is largely responsible for the clear failure of AI of the last few dozens of years.
PS: to avoid misunderstandings - this does NOT mean that there is something mystique about our brain. We have simply not fully understood how it works, yet - but we are making very fast progress in this area, especially in the last 15 years or so. It's still a long road ahead, though.
"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong." (Oscar Wilde)
Kurzweil's assessment that about a million lines of code may be enough to simulate the human brain.
If you accept that, then the real problem to solve becomes: in what language do you write the code?
Why, Brainfuck of course!
Want to improve your Karma? Instead of "Post Anonymously", try the "Post Humously" option.
Haha, see what I mean?
There are currently four academic disciplines working on the reverse engineering of a human mind. Linguistics, psychology, computer science, and philosophy. You can count neurology too if you want to start talking about the *actual* brain. Several tens of thousands of individuals are directly and indirectly working on this problem. We've come a long way in the last few decades. Unfortunately, we have a pretty long way to go. For the moment we lack a model which accurately describes how mental processes work. There isn't even a consensus on how the processing is done.
"modeling the brain" is not even really the hard part. One only needs sufficient computing power to model what they *think* is going on logically (there isn't even a consensus here). The trick is modeling the mind. We are very, very far away from that.
A fun number to throw around is how many synaptic connections are present in the brain. Synaptic connections are widely believed to be the best indicator of overall memory storage and processing speed (to an extent). There are about 10 to the 15th (Peta I believe?) synaptic connection in a normal human brain. A significant number of these are active at any given time. In other words, the brain is performing a HUGE number of "calculations" simultaneously at all times. Modeling just the hardware is obviously not easy... modeling the software is currently not possible. I doubt it will be in the next 50 years.
For a good read on what many cognitive scientists think is going on, though it is clearly not an accurate model but rather a best guess, go read up on "connectionism".
The code is simple.
Simulate_Brain();
Now just find the compiler with the right set of libraries that can compile it. And yes, I am NOT just being anal. Half a million lines of code is MEANINGLESS. Quickly, how many lines do you need for a "Hello World" program? In assembly? C? Java? PHP?
If one day someone designs a cpu with a built in Hello World function, then it would require what? 2 instructions in assembly? Meanwhile the java guy will be pounding out yet another page of code.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Obviously, by your logic, a free market economy is impossible, Our economy is too complex to have evolved on its own. In fact, it is far more complex, with far more different parts, than a human being. It must have had a creator. If most any part of the economy, like the steel industry, say, were removed, the economy would not function. How did the economy function before there was a steel industry? Obviously, it couldn't, and therefore we have demonstrated irreducible specificated complexification or something.
All this free market talk is obvious bullshit, and we actually DO have a centrally planned economy because it is impossible for something so complex to have evolved without a central planner.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
First off, Ray Kurzweil doesn't want to die. That's a preoccupation that a lot of people have (including one of his critics, Rudy Rucker, who has written whole books hoping to find immortality in the fourth dimension), and it leads them to some pretty fantastic conjectures from time to time. It's not necessarily a bad thing, as long as you keep the proverbial grain of salt handy. Modern chemistry and its not insignificant contributions to our vastly expanded lifespans arose from the alchemical search for immortality. Alchemy was bullshit, of course, but the incidental discoveries of alchemists on the way to their illusory elixir of life paved the way for the real science to follow and build upon after it had ejected the dross.
And secondly, I don't think it's entirely implausible that we can eventually design hardware and software that will match and exceed the performance of the human brain. Our brains, after all, are the end product of evolution, and like pretty much every other part of our bodies, an accumulation of kludges that were just good enough to get passed to the next generation (or not bad enough not to get passed on). It's also implemented using hardware so unreliable that it wouldn't function at all if it wasn't constantly repairing itself, and even then, no matter how well you treat it, it irreparably craps out after about 75 years. And it still doesn't work all that well -- ever seen the long chain of train wrecks that is the history of human civilization? We might be able to engineer something that works a lot better. Granted, it's not going to be by deriving simulated human brains from a copy of the human genome. More likely, it will be very much unlike the way biological brains work.
The fundamental problem, which I think smart and optimistic guys like Ray Kurzweil are particularly prone to forgetting, is that it may not be possible for a mind to understand a mind of equal complexity, i.e., humans may lack the necessary intelligence to duplicate their own intelligence. That will force us back on genetic algorithms to evolve AI, leading to an end product that will likely be just as badly undesigned as natural brains. Worse, it will do little to advance our understanding of how minds work: if we can't reverse-engineer our own brains, we probably won't be able to reverse-engineer even more sophisticated artificial minds, nor will they be able to reverse-engineer themselves. (We can hope that they could reverse-engineer us, and then explain it to us in terms we can understand, if such terms exist, but that takes us so far out on a conjectural limb that I can see Ray Kurzweil from here.)
Anyway, there's room for bold conjectures. That doesn't mean that when Kurzweil completely fails to understand the way molecular biology works that we shouldn't call bullshit on it, but we shouldn't be entirely hostile to futurist speculation. By nature, most of it will be bullshit, but a lot of progress in unexpected areas has been made in the pursuit of mirages (alchemy leading to chemistry, astrology leading to astronomy), and explaining (or discovering) why a conjecture is bullshit is a beneficial exercise in and of itself.
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because it's an odd-looking creature that seemingly has 'random' bits and pieces from various other animals... the full question being "what specific selections in 'natural selection' led to this particular evolutionary path?"
So the question isn't to 'explain' the platypus.. that would be like asking to explain the number 5 or explain the color red.. the question itself doesn't make any sense without being more specific.
It's also not a question of 'why does the platypus exist?' - natural selection was already the answer, and can even be thought up by people on their own; clearly if it exists, it had some benefit being exactly the way it is within the environment it is in.. if it weren't well-adapted to that environment, it would have died out a long time ago (presuming the environment didn't radically change).
To be honest, the fully expanded question is actually an interesting one - and one which biologists and others continue to try to answer to more detail to this day. I hadn't actually looked into Platypus info since I was a kid (a school project on its venom, along with other animals' venom), and wiki tells me it was only discovered in 2004 that the Platypus has -10- sex chromosomes, and its genome mapped fully only as recently as 2008. Seems to me there's plenty of questions left.
PZ Myers threw a red herring there. What Kurzweil says is pretty reasonable, he used the total amount of information in the genome to get an upper limit estimate of the amount of library code needed to simulate a brain. I say "library" to differentiate from data, since a lot of our brain information comes from our experiences, i.e. library == instincts.
Actually he's right. The statement is pure bullshit.
Or maybe that's too much. Kurzweil just doesn't understand how Kolmorogrov complexity works.
Let's say the brain as a machine is the output of a process. How complicated is that process? The Kolmorogrov complexity of a string (or whatever) is the minimum size of the data that you have to give to a machine in order to produce the string. E.g. a string of 100 0s is simpler than a string of alternating 0s and 1s and simpler than encoding the first 100 digits of pi. Write code for each of those and you'll see the measure works (and it's actually a lower limit, but it's the closest concept...)
But the crucial point is that the size of this string depends on the kind of machine. The size of the input (program) for a Turing machine is very different than that for an actual computer.
So, yes. 800MB of code. But that's not the library code. The library that interprets that program is the egg that grows those 800MB of data into a human, together with all the laws of physics and chemistry involved in the process.
Take all the chromosomes encoding a whole human genome and drop it into a test tube of distilled water. Does it grow a brain? What if you put it into a chicken egg. What grows out? Putting those 800 MB into a computer doesn't do anything if you don't provide the equivalent of the egg. The bootstrap structure and the underlying architecture are as important as the code in understanding the whole system.
Myers is right. In order to understand the human brain directly from the genes you have to understand all chemistry that interacts with it, all the self replicating machinery provided by the mother and simulate that at a molecular level.
So the upper bound is NOT 800 MB. It's 800 MB plus the size of a codebase good enough to simulate every interaction at an atomic level plus a full 3D scan at an atomic level of the egg provided by the mother. Or simplified models of all those things, provided by the chemists and biologists out there, as Myers points out. (Plus data equivalent to a few years of training like we do with children)
Not saying that simulating the brain is necessarilly that hard, it's just that Kurzweil's pseudo-scientific measurement is just bullshit.
Entering college we get students whos goals in life are the following.
Make a True AI/Mimic a Human Brain - If they good they will end up getting a PHD and being a computer science professor and perhaps doing some cool research on a limited area of AI.
Make an Operating System which can run any code for any platform faster and more securely then the exiting OS's - If they are good they may work for a software company doing some lower level programming
Make the ultimate game which will make them millions nay billions of dollars - Working as a Web Designer or if they are really lucky working on some small subset of a game.
Then in college they realize there is No Magic in computer science and a lot of things that are easy for a Human do do is difficult for a computer to do. And a lot of things difficult for people are easy for computers. You cant just tell a computer an Abstract concept and hope it know what to do with it. It takes real work and actually a fair amount of brain power for a lot of the mundane tasks that need to be done.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
And the huge hole in his theory is the execution environment, e.g., the cpu that the brain is running on is REALITY itself. So be sure to add that to your cost of simulation of the brain.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
I don't think it's all that big a leap. There are lots of very smart people actively trying to simulate human intelligence. While a million lines of code is a fairly large undertaking, it's not an unmanageable amount. If anyone actually believed it could be done in a million lines of code, it would have been done, because the profit potential is huge and undeniable. Indeed, why isn't Kurzweil working on it right now?
Even creating just the part that could find interactions between proteins based upon their genetic structure and relative concentrations would make you fabulously wealthy.
The reality is that the problem is vastly more complicated than presented in his estimates.
It hasn't happened decades later because the singularity date isn't past yet. You may criticize Kurzweil, which I do, but you should read what he says before criticizing vaguely. As it is, you sound like a misinformed radicalist. Just so you gain something from this post: a) I think he predicts the singularity to happen near 2030; b) He predicts humans will 'fuse' with machines, not that machines will replace humans.
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you
Is this a slashdot story, or someone's twitter page? At least some kind of objective summary would be nice, other than "Lul Kurzweil, here, a link, he stoopid!"
But before I just hit preview and go, lets take a look at the article itself. Aaand, holy crap, the post is verbatim from the article.
Kurzweil's effective claim is "There's only so much data in the DNA. The brain is about 50 million bytes. If we can reverse engineer the process used to turn those 50 million bytes into a brain, we can then reverse engineer the brain."
Seems logical - and even though the endpoint might not be "brain on a chip" it might be "oh, there's a flaw in the DNA here that's causing the hypothalamus to be malformed, lets start checking for that and maybe fixing it in the womb." There are many, many scientists that are trying to puzzle out this "source code" for that very reason. It's a perfectly valid point of study.
Kurzweil is a futurist. His scientific area of study is not "You should do X Y and Z to get to points A B and C." His area of study is "Scientists are working on X, which may lead someday to Z, and might bring us technology C." There's an important difference there, which I always find amusing when scientists and the anti-singulatarians start hooting, "he forgot Y, A and B!"
His math all points to Technology C and beyond being really amazing, but that's besides the point. His area of study is not "every technology field ever", but rather "this is where things are trending". People mix the two up, sometimes intentionally, and hoot hoot hoot, Y A B.
Anyway. Back to the article. The rebuttal in the article is "We cannot derive the brain from the protein sequences underlying it; the sequences are insufficient, as well, because the nature of their expression is dependent on the environment and the history of a few hundred billion cells, each plugging along interdependently."
In other words, It's too complex to do. It's maaagiiic. (Feel free to insert hand wiggling here.)
He forgot Y, A and B!
See, the brain might have a source code, one that's remarkably small and turns into something really complex, but that doesn't mean anything cause... maaaagic. And you can't understand magic, right? Everyone knows that something that's so complex that it seems impossible to understand should never be attempted. Worthless endeavor. Everyone knows that. Right? ... Maagggiiiiccc~~~
The fact of the matter is, DNA is source code. For a system we don't fully understand, one that's remarkably complex, but ultimately, DNA, even our DNA, is just data. We can understand, change, manipulate, and create data.
To treat it all as magic -- as something that we will just never be able to understand -- is to do a disservice to centuries of scientists, of the past and the future.
A model of the human brain would need to model 10^10 neurons, each connected (not at random) to some 10,000 other neurons to produce a net of 10^14 synapses.
To understand the challenge of modelling a system this vast and complex, consider the state of research on the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans (a tiny worm). After many years of work its nervous system has been (almost) exactly mapped: it contains 302 neurons, 6393 chemical synapses, 890 gap junctions, and 1410 neuromuscular junctions. Imagine now the difficulty of reaching this level of precision in a system 10^7 times larger. Unlike the genome, we have no clues about how to automate mapping of an intact brain.
But the good news is that with this level of neuro-mapping precision we can now completely simulate the neural network ("brain") of a tiny worm, right? Right?
Wrong. Not by a long shot. We are still struggling with characterizing the behavior of this primitive neural net, and making efforts at simulating some aspects of that behavior. The 302 neuron "brain" is far beyond our abilities to simulate at present.
Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
Here's how I tell the difference between a serious skeptic and a "pop" skeptic: I ask them if acupuncture is "woo". One question, that's all. The question works just as well with tai chi chuan.
And what if this was my answer; a vast majority of the claims relating to acupuncture are woo, though there are some areas that demand further research. I would use chiropracty as a test, personally, since 90% of the claims, and supposed reasons, are pure, unadulterated woo, but 10% of it is actually helpful (if if the reasons for its effectiveness is often pure hokum). The same would go for acupuncture and tai chi, there might be some useful bits in there, but the stated mode of operation (chi, spiritual energy, invisible whatnots) is probably 100% woo. Also, with acupuncture and chiropracty the woo is firmly bundled with the real bits, making it very hard to distinguish where one begins and the other ends.
So.. with acupuncture, at least, we can say some functional aspects of it are non-woo, but if you accept it as it stands with it's traditional rational, then you are a follower of woo. If you toss out the idiotic bits, and accept an actual accepted scientific explanation for it, then you can join the woo-less camp.
It doesn't help that there are tons of fake, woo-speading, "naturalpathic"/alt-medicine journals that spread self-aggrandizing quasi-studies.
BTW, I really enjoy saying "woo".
A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
Kurzweil didn't make that ridiculous claim in the first place, despite Myers' third-hand assumptions.
It was just an aside pointing out that the brain's overwhelming complexity all stems from a few million bytes worth of DNA, implying a significant level of replicated structure, andcertainly not a suggestion that we could derive a whole working brain from it.
Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?