The Surprising Statistics Behind Flash and Apple
Barence writes "PC Pro's Tom Arah has dug up some statistics that cast severe doubt over Steve Jobs' assertion that Flash is the technology of the past, and Apple's iOS is the platform of the future. He quibbles with Net Applications' assertion that iOS growth is 'massive,' considering that mobile accounts for only 2.6% of web views, and the iOS share stands at only 1.1%. By comparison, Silverlight penetration now stands at 51% while 97% of web surfers have Flash installed, according to Stat Owl. 'At least when Bill Gates held the web to ransom he had the decency to first establish a dominant position,' Arah claims. 'In Steve Jobs' case, with only 1.1% market share, the would-be emperor isn't even wearing any clothes.'"
How is SJ holding the web at ransom if he is in such a weak position?
I've read a recent statistic that has said that of the 500m Facebook users, 100m visit via the iPhone. So 2% of web views depends entirely on the sites you count, and whether those sites actually make money from their web presence.
Back when Apple stopped shipping floppy drives with their computers just about 99% of 'manufactured' computers shipped with floppy drives. People said Apple was moving too fast. Now, a decade or so later, floppies have gone the way of the dinosaur.
There's probably quite a lot to make that analogy faulty. But I think Apple isn't holding anything randsom. They're just knowingly not supporting (what they see to be) old software.
PS: I don't reply to ACs.
This:
mobile accounts for only 2.6% of web views, and the iOS share stands at only 1.1%.
is presumably measured over a single set time period and is not a rate of change. It says nothing about this:
iOS growth is "massive"
I have no idea what the ransom bit is on about tho. Troll?
"Welcome to our world. We are the wasted youth. And we are the future too." Yes, I know these are stupid lyrics.
At the end of the day it's going to be the FCC settling this debate. Limiting consumer choice is never a good idea when you have a strong market position (like Apple's with mobile devices). The US government tends to frown on that in the long run.
Because Firefox users have no need for flash or Ad blockers do they.
I presume you are implying that the reason people use Flash blocking tools is because all Flash content inherently needs to be blocked. This isn't true.
The overly-prevalent mindset on Slashdot that "Flash is evil", "Flash needs to die", and "Flash is only used for bad things" is just plain wrong and broken. Flash is used in many places to greatly enhance things beyond what browsers are normally capable of. Games are an obvious example, but other applications such as Google Finance and Amazon's song previews are simple but effective examples. As is usually the case, the technology itself isn't really good or bad, but what people do with it can be. And people, as a rule, are decidedly good at making technology do bad things.
This then leaves the question: Why do people block flash? Almost entirely it falls into two categories:
- Flash is used in the most perverse and annoying advertisements that contain video and audio and which load the CPU unnecessarily
- Flash has security concerns
Consider these. People champion HTML5 as some kind of messiah which will bring the end to Flash's evil reign. Okay, what would that result in? I'll give you a hint: HTML5 blockers. Why? Because soon we'll transition to:
- HTML5 is used in the most perverse and annoying advertisements that contain video and audio and which load the CPU unnecessarily
- HTML5 has security concerns
Personally, Flash doesn't really bother me, but that's largely because it can be controlled. I use NoScript, partially to block Flash, and that tamed beast can do useful work. I think most people who yearn for its demise either don't understand that the void Flash leaves behind will be filled with something (at least as "bad" as Flash, if not worse), or they're just mindless zealots regurgitating Jobs' claims.
"What do you despise? By this are you truly known." --Princess Irulan, Manual of Muad'Dib
/)
I agree.
Jobs' position is one where key technologies, such as playing video, should be done by the web browser and not held for randsom by 3rd party plugin developers who'se best interest is to put their app on every device out there. Posting articles like this only pushes the debate back afew steps.
Flash + silverlight = can play video = browser plugins = win for particular corporations with vested interests to win at any cost
HTML5 (ie iOS, firefox 4) = can play video = html5 inside webbrowser = open standards = win for all
The university I work for has over 25 to 30 percent (5000 +) of it's staff using iOS devices. We gathered this info from our Exchange system. Students don't use Exchange so these are mostly well established professors and staff not a bunch of upstart kids. We have reason the believe the percentage of students using iOS is well over 30% if not closer to 50%. It's important to note that if you own an iOS device you also own a computer of some kind. People aren't using one device to access all content and iOS is by far the primary mobile platform if you are talking about small form factor or phones. You just can't produce stats that say otherwise. And yes Android is moving fast up the stats and they don't like Flash on it. Just think of all the Flash adds you are missing.
It all starts at 0
I bet if I go through my installed applications list, there's a ton of crap I don't use.
Silverlight? Yeah sure, huge installed base. I've never installed it. When I hit a site that requires it, I say "no thanks". I have yet to hit a site that was so good it broke down my resistance to installing that. I'd uninstall Flash too, but YouTube requires it. That's it. YouTube is my killer app for Flash. Whatever YouTube requires, I will probably use, unless it requires something I so despise that I decide to pull the plug on YouTube.
So to reiterate. Installed base: Worst. Stat. Ever.
You can't automaticly detect user base without being a bit more intrusive. It's user base that matters.
Note, I'm not really defending Apple's position here. I'm just saying that installed base is a flawed counter-argument.
Silverlight would be dead if it weren't for Netflix. I really wish they'd use something else ( although, honestly, it seems to outperform every Flash-based video service on my lower end computers ).
No, no. You have it all wrong.
HTML5 is going to save the internet from bloat and security problems.
Also, with HTML5, videos might play in webages if you have the appropriate codec the site's content was encoded with, and your browser can tap into it properly.
It's just like the tag which worked decades ago, but it's new and therefore magically better.
Netflix uses Silverlight. That's a rather large chunk of the intentional deployment, beyond the "Oh, it's here on Windows Update, I better install it" crowd, I would imagine.
Really, an article proclaims Steve Jobs to be "holding the web to ransom" because he didn't approve of using Flash on his mobile devices, and further says he is not justified because mobile devices only account for 0.xyz% of web traffic?
How is it possible to say someone is holding something for ransom, yet is not in a dominant position?
You don't need to be a fanboy of any sort to see through this troll piece.
the would-be emperor isn't even wearing any clothes.
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but it seems like a failed attempt to be clever. "It's like the emperor's new clothes, except this time... HE ISN'T EVEN WEARING ANY CLOTHES!" He's not wearing clothes in the original story.
It doesn't take a fanboy to know IOS and Flash aren't competing technologies, nor that "Steve Jobs held the web hostage" is so much flamebaiting hot air (seriously, wtf?).
Bottom line: Flash sucks on Android big time.
I don't get it. I have a nexus one. I have flash installed and I have it set to load when I ask it to. So here's what happens:
Here's what happens on the ipod touch:
So how does this suck?
If you're talking about the user experience, yes, many flash pages were not designed for a touch device because you can't completely emulate the mouse pointer with touch. But many javascript pages don't work well either when they assume a mouse pointer as well.
Finally, the voice of reason.
I use Flashblock because I want to use Flash services on the web.
The problem isn't flash, it's how certain organisations use flash. This isn't the fault of flash but it is something I have to deal with (have dealt with). If Flash died tomorrow, I guarantee you by Friday (+8 GMT) all the punch the monkey ad's on the web would have been converted to HTML5. Apple and Apple fanboys are benefiting from the same thing that they've always benefited from, lack of negative interest. HTML 5 is better right now because there's no money in writing HTML 5 ad's at the moment, this does not scale. If HTML5 becomes dominant it will become just as unusable as an un-flashblocked browser because Flash is not the motivation for all the Flash annoyances on the web.
Put simply, blame the ad producers, not the conduit they use to display ads.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
Well it would explain a lot that he gets paid to say this. Why he feels the need to drag actual computers into something that is strictly about small portable devices. Gee, next hell tell us that everybody making cell phones is a dickhead, because 99% of PCs have a DVD or at least a CD-ROM drive, so not having one must mean you are taking the silvery disk buying community at ransom.
Fandroids hate facts.
Wait, so a programmer who uses a polling loop instead of an event listener is blameless, but Flash is responsible for all of the CPU usage? Puhleez. Flash is just a tool, and can be very efficient when used properly.
Join the window installer's union, where prosperity is a brick throw away!
I don't know, I suppose the same way we mark you as -1, Fanboy
Thus you make his point for him nicely. There is no way to express an opinion on this subject without pissing people off, and it's mostly due to the tone of this article.
Currently hooked on AMP
Flash + silverlight = can play video = browser plugins = win for particular corporations with vested interests to win at any cost
HTML5 (ie iOS, firefox 4) = can play video = html5 inside webbrowser = open standards = win for all
The "particular corporations with vested interests" being the MPEG-LA members, I take it? There are two kinds of video codecs: those that work in Safari for iOS and don't work in Firefox 4, and those that work in Firefox 4 and don't work in Safari for iOS. Apple has chosen not to implement any permissively licensed audio or video codec in Safari for iOS, not Vorbis, not Theora, and not VP8. How is this any improvement over the QuickTime vs. Windows Media Player war that existed before FLV?
But you can already make a web app on iOS that bypasses the store
Of course you can in theory. It'll just run dog slow because the JavaScript engine reportedly isn't a JIT compiler, and it won't be able to use any feature of the hardware that the Safari DOM doesn't expose. For example, how well does WebGL run? Can web apps prompt the user to turn on the mic or camera?
Flash + silverlight = can play video = browser plugins = win for particular corporations with vested interests to win at any cost HTML5 (ie iOS, firefox 4) = can play video = html5 inside webbrowser = open standards = win for all
Exactly.
What point was missed in the stats was that while 97% of people may have flash installed and 51% have silverlight 100% of "web surfers" (hate that term) have a web browser installed.
Rather than 3rd party extensions to get the functionality needed for media doesn't it make a lot more sense to have open standards so that all browsers can display the media by implementing the standard? It becomes platform agnostic when you don't have to rely on a single vendor to release a binary for your particular platform (in this case platform being OS and browser combination).
"If you are going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill
Worse still, differences in CPU performance with HTML5 when compared to Flash have been shown to be negligible. (In fact, some of the stats on that page show that Flash 10.1 is more efficient with its CPU utilization.)
And in other studies, spaghetti is faster than purple. HTML5 is a standard, not an implementation. Flash may or may not be faster than a given browser's HTML5 video codec, but I'd be willing to bet you can find a different browser that would demonstrate the opposite results.
Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
That sounds like Mozilla's position, but last I heard Jobs' wants you to use H.264 for video, which is *gasp* proprietary.
How about
HTML5 + Flash + Silverlight = open web = more choices = more awesome = win for all.
I'm all for HTML5, and having video in the standard (and canvas!), but I'm far from convinced that the next awesome browser technology will start as an open standard.
Jobs is correct, IOS owns the mobile smart phone market.
Really? When did iOS smartphones outstrip Symbian or RIM? And I guess Android passing iOS for new smartphone sales never happened, either...
iOS barely made it to 3rd place, and is now starting to slip down to 4th, probably to be firmly entrenched there sometime early next year, as Android moves into 2nd behind Symbian.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Uhhh...sorry, but...are you high? "Not held for ransom" with HTML5, did Steve come out in support of OGG Theora while I wasn't looking? Might I remind you that Steve is backing H.264, which is probably THE most patented video codec on the planet and you seriously talk about open standards and a win for all? Are you serious?
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
HTML5 video playback is limited compared to what flash can do.
Not only on the implementation; on the (yet to be implemented completely on any browser) standard. Youtube flash player allows you to go to a specific part of a video, even if you have not pre-downloaded it. HTML 5 (the standard) lacks such mechanism.
Maybe in 5-7 years we'll have something worth it on the HTML5 field.
The HTML5 vs Flash, at least in the video section, is to me a "existing technology that works" vs "possible technology that might work in the future. Stress on 'might'". For now, I'll stick with what works.
Wow, way to put some words in my mouth, and didn't even get close to what I was saying! I'm saying that claiming ANY standard that will cause a troll hammer of patents to fall down upon you is "open" is like claiming MSFT is open because you can write Windows programs, okay?
Not that hard to follow, and claiming ANYTHING involving H.264 is open is total bullshit. I think everyone here follows the GPL style standard of standard of open, as in everyone is free to use it, whereas H.264 may be open to those like Apple and MSFT who have nice patent warchests and big checkbooks, everyone else? not so much.
So I'm sorry, and while I have nothing against Steve and will give the man credit for taking a company on life support and making them a powerhouse, anyone trying to claim the most heavily patented codec in world history is "open" is drinking some serious iKoolaid. And can you show me ANYWHERE where I said lack of openness is not a good argument? even one? if you are gonna debate, at least don't make straw men.
I personally would have preferred WebM become the standard, but if given a choice between the patent minefield that is H.264 or flash where I only have to deal with a single company vs 2000+ patent holders, and possible submarines on top of that? You bet your last buck I'm gonna pick dealing with a single company, especially since MPEG-LA has already proven to be asshats with their nasty licensing, whereas I haven't seen adobe say boo about Gnash or any other emulation of their product.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
Nope. The issue is that a lot of countries are now spending taxpayer money to create IOS applications, which then end up on a closed, even walled platform. All this because those in charge believe the Apple hype and think that 90% of the people are using an iPoney. And this is not a Good Thing (tm). Reality Distortion at its finest. I will never switch to an Iponey due to its closed nature, however this won't stop my government and many government funded organisations to throw money at Apple oriented products.