Study Links Game Piracy To Critics' Review Scores
An anonymous reader writes "A new study (abstract) published at the annual ACM Foundations of Digital Games conference by researchers from Copenhagen Business School and the University of Waterloo explores the magnitude of game piracy on public BitTorrent trackers. The researchers tracked 173 new game releases over a three-month period and found that these were downloaded by 12.7 million unique peers. They further show that the number of downloads on BitTorrent can be predicted by the scores of game reviewers. Overall the current paper gives a seemingly robust overview of the state of game piracy on BitTorrent. Although the results may not be all that surprising, it's certainly refreshing to see a decent report on BitTorrent statistics every now and then."
As can be seen from the table below, the most downloaded games are all major commercial titles.
If the piracy is directly linked to review scores, it means that people just want the games for free and aren't that much interested in trying them out before actually buying them. Such argument would hold more water if it was said that game piracy is linked to overall sales, but here it's saying that the better reviews and comments from people games get, the more they are pirated too. The most sad thing is when people pirate indie games
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How is a tautology even vaguely newsworthy?
The more higher rated a game is, the more people download it on BT?
Is that it? What an unexpected result.
Higher rated -> More people want to play it -> More people buy it OR More people download it
Simple.
Great news...
When I first read the title I assumed that they found out that games with lower scores get pirated more. This would have made perfect sense to me, since I understand the idea of "try before you buy", especially for games which are reported to be flawed in some ways. Then I saw that they didn't weigh the amount of pirated copies by the sales of the specific game, which then only shows that good games are popular.
Better game scores. Combating global warming. We should all be pirates
What's this stealing thing you're talking about.
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The best way to fight piracy is to make shitty games
...and in other news water is wet.
I guess companies should continue to buy or otherwise influence reviews.
I just skimmed the actual study and it doesn't really provide much more info. It does make the claim that their methods are closer to the true number of pirated copies and refreshingly that these are not necessarily correlated with lost sales. However it's conclusions aren't all that interesting. My guess? This was more about their measurement techniques and the outcome was tacked on so it could get published (or have a chance of getting published)
The music and movie industries have already tried that tack, and it doesn't seem to be working.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Looking at the table presented in the article, their conclusion seems a bit odd...
Fallout: New Vegas - Downloads: 962,793 Avg. rating: 83.7
TRON Evolution - Downloads: 496,349 Avg. rating: 59.5
Starcraft 2 - Downloads: 420,138 Avg. rating: 89.5
"Metacritic Scores explain 10% of the variance in the unique peers per game on BitTorrent,”. I guess the remaining 90% is just noise then...?
Given that more hyped games generally get higher review scores *regardless*, and more hyped games are more likely to be pirated just because there are more people who want to play them, I'd hardly say that a correlation like this can be used to say anything conclusive.
Better game gets downloaded more, well duh.
09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
It's like the story of Robin Hood where you take ("steal") from the rich and give to the poor (the "thieves"). More common day it's called "They owes me!", and, "They make a lot of money so won't notice.", and, "FU Man! I take what I can!", and this classic, "My boss stole my GPL!", only that's sort or pe/reverse.
I thought it was obvious that the better games got downloaded more.
If someone linked the number of downloads with number of purchases I wouldn't be surprised if they were following the same curve.
How do you count downloads on bittorrent? At best, you can get a sketchy number of peers and seeds but how does that translate to actual downloads?
Also, how do those download numbers stack up against actual sales? Is there a method to determine what portion of these downloads represent actual loss for the companies (copies that were only pirated) versus what is essentially pre-sale test drives?
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This is really nothing new, a good example is Deus Ex: Human revolution, the 10-hour leaked demo (everyone has their suspicions the devs leaked it on purpose) has done amazing things for the game.
Wasn't a Steam-account from an Italian game-journalist phished to get access? Plus Square filed a lawsuit to get Valve to surrender the access-logs.
Deus Ex: 2 was a horrible failure of a game, but after the 10hour leak they've seen an increase in pre-orders and the developers have pushed up the release date.
[citation needed] First time I read that.
They further show that the number of downloads on BitTorrent can be predicted by the scores of game reviewers.
Since the link is blocked at work, it would be nice if the summary actually included what the link was. I assume higher reviews correlate to higher piracy. Which is another way of saying popular games are pirated more than unpopular games, which is another way of saying popular games are popular, which ultimately says fuck all.
But with Starcraft you don't get the full game, with Fallout you do. With Starcraft all you get is the campaign mode, which really isn't much fun. You don't have access to multiplayer which is the entire reason why you play Starcraft (to get pwned by Koreans). On the other hand, with Fallout, a pirated game is missing nothing but the DRM.
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
This would be more interesting if it was also correlated with sales... Some things that aren't answered by the numbers in the article could indicate that a well reviewed game has higher sales, too. For instance, what if pirated downloads of those were a smaller percentage of sales than with less well reviewed games?
Just showing the review scores and the number of downloads is too far from a complete picture...
Actually, not even that. Here's what it should be:
"NEWS: Good games are both highly reviewed and heavily downloaded."
I see nothing in the article that would hint to causality. Especially with only 10% of the variance in downloads linked to scores - wouldn't you expect at least that much association just from both variables being linked to game quality?
It could have been interesting to show that reviews lead to a temporal spike in downloads. Of course, that would require reviews to be published after games ship, which often isn't the case.
You think that's bad? In German, it's called a "Raubkopie" (robbed copy). Know what a Raubkopie really is? If I go into a store and hold a clerk at gunpoint to create a copy of a CD, then take the copied CD without paying.
In other words, there's no problem with "Raubkopien". I've never heard of anything like this happening, ever.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Rather than developing expensive DRM solutions, publishers can cut piracy rates tremendously by ensuring their games get low review scores. Everyone knows that game sales are based mostly on hype, and ever pirated copy is a Lost Sale, so it follows that a game with a high hype to review score ratio will actually outsell a hyped game that also has high review scores.
In other news, shitwater brand bottled water will be changing their names...The CEO attributed the decision to a recent study showing that people care about the quality of products.
Those who review games without permission will be hauled into court (all records sealed, of course).
If correlation were causation, then that would mean that good reviews cause piracy. Which also would mean they found the root of their piracy problems. The easiest fix would be to get bad reviews. To do this just make really bad games. And BAM people will stop pirating them.
How is this study even useful? Am I missing something? I mean of course, I can't imagine pirating a game that has a 4 out of 10 stars in reviews any faster than I'd purchase it!
I suppose now they'll try to add their payola expenditures to civil suits for piracy.
Have gnu, will travel.
It's not a tautology. It's just incredibly obvious that better-reviewed games would be downloaded more on BitTorrent.
[To be clear a tautology is something that is by definition true, like ... "if a and b are rational numbers, then ab is rational".
That's not a tautology. That's a mathematical consequence. Tautology is a repetition of meaning. "a and b are rational" has a different meaning than "ab is rational", even though one can be shown to always imply the second. Otherwise you could say that the entirety of provable mathematics is tautologous.
No. GP has it right, and you do not. Tautology is not about meaning, it is about truth. Bertrand Russell's quote from the Wiktionary entry is particularly apt, here. The proposition "if a and b are rational numbers, then ab is rational" *is* tautological, because in the deductive modality, the conclusion is always implicit in the premise; there is no way to "deduce" a new truth via the deductive modality. One can only restate a truth that was already present in the premise, and that is what makes the deductive modality tautological. Think GIGO, replacing "garbage" with "truth". So, as you implied, the entirety of provable mathematics is definitely not tautologous. There indeed exists another modality that is not tautological. The other modality is inductive logic, which *can* produce new truths, rendering it non-tautological.
I wish I could get paid to just point out the obvious.
It's not a tautology. It's just incredibly obvious that better-reviewed games would be downloaded more on BitTorrent.
[To be clear a tautology is something that is by definition true, like ... "if a and b are rational numbers, then ab is rational".
That's not a tautology. That's a mathematical consequence. Tautology is a repetition of meaning. "a and b are rational" has a different meaning than "ab is rational", even though one can be shown to always imply the second. Otherwise you could say that the entirety of provable mathematics is tautologous.
No. GP has it right, and you do not. Tautology is not about meaning, it is about truth. Bertrand Russell's quote from the Wiktionary entry is particularly apt, here. The proposition "if a and b are rational numbers, then ab is rational" *is* tautological, because in the deductive modality, the conclusion is always implicit in the premise; there is no way to "deduce" a new truth via the deductive modality. One can only restate a truth that was already present in the premise, and that is what makes the deductive modality tautological. Think GIGO, replacing "garbage" with "truth". So, as you implied, the entirety of provable mathematics is definitely not tautologous. There indeed exists another modality that is not tautological. The other modality is inductive logic, which *can* produce new truths, rendering it non-tautological.
If a and b are rational numbers, then is ab rational? That depends on the closure of rational numbers, which I would argue is not part of the premise at all. You are extrapolating from assumed properties of the word "rational" which are not given in the statement.
Consider this: "if a and b are imaginary numbers, then ab is imaginary". The same syntax, but not even true. What if we define "rational numbers" to be imaginary? Then the original example isn't true either.
A variation of the original example that is tautological would be "if a and b being rational numbers is sufficient for ab to be rational, and a and b are rational numbers, then ab is rational".
How the hell did you make this leap?
If the piracy is directly linked to review scores, it means that people just want the games for free and aren't that much interested in trying them out before actually buying them.
How many of us has bought a popularly reviewed game, then found out it sucked? Maybe (as is common today) reviewers are basically being paid to give glowing reviews of crap. Maybe in spite of a game having mass popular appeal, it's just not my type of game?
Maybe you're just making a wild assumption with nothing to back it up, and assuming that everyone will accept it as a valid premise?
Has no one managed to publish a crack to allow LAN play?
And there have been studies that show that studies are just as likely to be bullshit as factual. Like that one or the "New NASA Data Casts Doubt On Global Warming Models" hoax.
That would be interesting. Does review score affects sold copies more than torrents, or not?
3) They dislike the horrible, annoying, potentially-computer-breaking restrictions imposed on them by the DRM of the legal version. Possibly they're boycotting paying for it for that reason, possibly they actually *did* pay for it but still want to avoid said restrictions. I've done both of those things (for instance: a long time ago, I once wanted to play Duke 3d, which I owned, on a computer that lacked a cd drive. Duke 3d had a cd-is-in-the-drive check). I agree your first two reasons are probably the most common, but my addition's pretty common too (I wouldn't mind seeing a study about *that*, though I'm not sure how you'd get around the fact that your previously-mentioned scumbags would have no reason to not lie about it. ;))