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Why 2012 Will Be the Year of the Android Tablet
lseltzer writes "The iPad has dominated the high-end tablet market so far, but that is about to change. At CES in Las Vegas in a couple weeks you will see tablets running Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich) everywhere and at prices that will make an iPad a lot harder to justify. The competition from the OEM model in the Android markets will massively shift market share away from Apple, just as it has done in the smart phone market."
The Kindle Fire will pave the way, not because people will choose it over the iPad, but because it is opening the market on the low price range, and for people (like myself) that use computers to compute, and midsize tablets for light duty tasks. Of course, the Nook is also helping develop this market. They both prove that there is a sub $300 market for basic tablets that can surf, watch movies, be good book readers, and serve in areas where even a laptop is too large, and a netbook is not efficient.
Rest assured, the iPad will still dominate the large tablet market, it is just that the new products aren't trying to compete and are instead focusing on growing the market in places that the iPad never entered.
Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
Because the Mayan tablets said so? No wonder archaeologists got it wrong. It's the end of the handheld world as we knew it.
This is the year of Linux!
The article seems to presume that there is a static size for the amount of people who buy tablets. There isn't. As lower-cost entries enter the market, people who previously could not afford one will be able to buy one. So the market will grow, but it's also likely that Apple's overall sales will grow as the market grows. So, sure, Apple's "market share" may shrink, but it's not like Apple's going to make less money than they did before.
Also, there seems to be an assumption that people buy a tablet sorely based on cost. That is certainly part of how people buy something, but there are also metrics of quality, ease of use and also what you've got already. If you already have an iProduct, I'll bet people are a lot more attracted to the idea they can plug it into the iTunes that's already set up and have it work. Learning something new probably isn't a big driver, even if they save a hundred bucks. Apple could also drop prices on the iPad 2 when the 3 comes out, just as they have done with the iPhone when new generations have arrived, in order to compete with the lower end of the market.
2012 will be the year of failed predictions and prophecies.
That... depends a lot. Do they have 40-50% share of a much larger market? Are they am making more, less, or the same amount per unit? I don't think Apple's board, or anyone else, ever expects to dominate any one niche forever. They don't need to. Apple's profits are rising. They make more per phone (and tablet) than any Android manufacturer and sell more units than any Android manufacturer. Their goal is make money, not dominate markets. They *still* make more profits on their computer division than any other single computer manufacturer, despite only being around 6 or 7 percent of the market share. When compared to "Windows PCs", Macs are a small minority of computers. When compared to "Dell PCs", Macs beat all the other manufacturers in sales and make more per unit. Dominating markets is nice, but it's not likely to last. Being a huge player in a much larger market makes just as much money and can last a good long while.
Look at phones. For a while iPhone dominated the smartphone category. Then Android joined the fray. People started buying Android phones too. Eventually more people bought Android phones than iPhones, but here's the thing... More people were buying iPhones than ever before. Every ad for an iPhone is, in a way, and ad for an Android phone. Every ad for an Android phone is, in a way, an ad for an iPhone. Ads for both make people want smartphones, and that's good for everybody. Would you rather have the whole 12 inch diameter pie, or a quarter of a pie the size of a dining room table?
I don't need a million points of light, just two points of multi-mode fiber and a 10 Gig-E router.
As somebody who has both a HoneyComb tablet/Samsung 7" tablet and an iPad (original and 2) I have to say I am really really disappointed with Android. Android has four flaws:
1) Hardware update support SUCKS! I have both a Sony Ericsson Xperia phone, and Acer Iconia Tablet. When I bought the phone it was essentially out of date because Sony said to get the new Android OS you need to buy the more expensive phone. HAD I known that I would not have bought the phone. However Sony did a 180 and said, "ok ok ok we will get you an update." When the original update was released it too Switzerland 7 months to get it. The exact same thing happened with my Acer Iconia. Acer kept hemming and hawing on their 3.1 update and being in Switzerland I was essentially at the tail end of the release. I had Acer Germany unlock the code for me to get my update. This just effen sucks! The Android vendors don't get updates! They just think it is an opportunity for you to buy the latest and greatest piece of hardware NOT!
2) The apps are lacking on Android. Two apps come to mind; Aligator water, and Wetter.com. Put the iPad and Android tablet edition side by side and what you see is that the iPad or iOS app is so much better. Why is that? When I run my Android apps they are slower, and jerkier (yes this has been discussed due to the software architecture choices made). Frankly I don't shive a git! I want a smooth flowing tablet and if Apple found the ideal way so be it, it is the right approach.
3) Hardware software compatibility. I have so many little tweaks and twiddles with the Android system that it just tires me out. Take for example setting up the wireless networking. On my iOS I can use DHCP and everything works. For some odd and strange reason with Android the network connections drop, come back, drop, come back, and drop and come back. They do this for about 5 minutes until they just stay connected. If I put in a network address all is good. Of course you could argue, "wait your network does something funny." Well my answer is that my laptops (windows, linux, and OSX) work just fine, as does my iPhone, and iPad. Thus while maybe it is network issue, I consider it an Android issue since the other devices are ok.
4) The hardware is sub-standard by most, not all vendors in comparison to Apple. Most of the Android hardware sucks. I have a Samsung tablet and it is not bad. Good quality. The Acer is ok, but things like battery life just suck. Overall for the amount of money I pay I am disappointed.
Overall I have to say I am completely disappointed with Android (had high hopes) as I feel Google is doing piss poor job of ensuring a certain amount of quality and usability. Android might sell more devices, but unless Android really changes its stripes it will always be a cheap-skates paradise...
"You can't make a race horse of a pig"
"No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
"Too many tablet models means application developers can't rely on as much being present and have to buy more tablets on which to test."
Just like PCs. I'd hate to be a PC developer these days, and have to buy thousands of them just to make sure my application was fully tested.
"National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
Seriously? You must not have seen ASUS' Eee Pad Transformer or the Transformer Prime (I hate how people keep forgetting about that one). How innovative is it for your tablet to dock with a keyboard (which includes goodies like a battery and USB ports) and become kin to a netbook? It's not that ICS will be the catalyst. It's that the convergence of ICS on both Tablet and Phone will make it much easier to sell someone an Android tablet versus an iPad. Got that killer app for your phone? Stick it on your tablet and be even more productive with a big screen.
Or you do what's called beta test and let other people test it for you on their tablet. Bring your thinking into the 21st century, all the big kids (read: video game companies and calling 'beta' a gold release) are doing it!
This shouldn't come to a shock to anyone. Mac except FOR A VERY SHORT period. Has always controlled their hardware (in some cases to their demise).
You have a memory leak. The mac clones almost killed Apple. The problem was that the clones cannibalize sales of Apple macs rather than expanding the marketshare of Mac OS. They were also of worse quality leaving Apple with less sales but higher end user support costs as they had to troubleshoot mac os for those clone owners.
Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
I agree "Innovative" was the wrong word for the Transformer. "Awesome" would, however, be more the right nuance.
I bought the first netbook (also ASUS, of course, the Eee PC) because the form factor worked for me as something you didn't hesitate to carry everywhere - and lightened the load on vacation while still being able to keep up with E-mail and handle all my photo review / tossing-out / rotating / cropping / blogging.
I love the "pad" style touch interface (I'm having to hold back from touching other screens now), but I'm just not terse enough to do E-mail with a screen keypad. Only useful for typing in passwords and short URLs. No E-mail, no-take-on-vacation. End of story.
An iPad with a keyboard accessory could cure that, but the Transformer is much more - doubling the battery life (and the way it does it is very clever: plug a depleted pad into the keyboard and it will actually charge it up until the keyboard is nearly depleted, so a mid-day session of catching up E-mail can have you ready to go back out to the field again; I never bring the charger to work), and providing an SD port and two USB ports. That's "killer app" compared to an iPad right there. (Oh, and Transformers have a micro-SD slot right on the Pad, so you can either increase your storage with it, or even use one in your camera and be able to review photos on a 10" screen...)
YMMV, but in my location, the price of the Transformer with keyboard and 32GB was the same as the iPad2 with 32GB and no keyboard. Case closed.