Slashdot Mirror
Why 2012 Will Be the Year of the Android Tablet
lseltzer writes "The iPad has dominated the high-end tablet market so far, but that is about to change. At CES in Las Vegas in a couple weeks you will see tablets running Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich) everywhere and at prices that will make an iPad a lot harder to justify. The competition from the OEM model in the Android markets will massively shift market share away from Apple, just as it has done in the smart phone market."
...first post
If you find this post offensive, don't read it! THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING! I am what I am because of how apes behave.
Sure, and just as with smartphones, "All Android Phones" will be bigger in the market than the mere iPhone. But look at any individual manufacturer, and that "All Android Phone" share is sliced into so many tiny pieces that Apple dwarfs them. Same with the iPad - Android tablets together may take over 50% of the market... but no individual Android tablet is going to have more than 5%.
The Kindle Fire will pave the way, not because people will choose it over the iPad, but because it is opening the market on the low price range, and for people (like myself) that use computers to compute, and midsize tablets for light duty tasks. Of course, the Nook is also helping develop this market. They both prove that there is a sub $300 market for basic tablets that can surf, watch movies, be good book readers, and serve in areas where even a laptop is too large, and a netbook is not efficient.
Rest assured, the iPad will still dominate the large tablet market, it is just that the new products aren't trying to compete and are instead focusing on growing the market in places that the iPad never entered.
Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
Because the Mayan tablets said so? No wonder archaeologists got it wrong. It's the end of the handheld world as we knew it.
This is the year of Linux!
Every time some tech columnist makes some glorious prediction that "[YEAR] Will Be The Year Of [TECH]", I roll my eyes.
Does it make you happy you're so strange?
Does this mean that the supply for iPads will be able to satisfy the demand?
If I used a sig over again, would anyone notice?
This is just like the "20XX is the year of the Linux Desktop".
I will wait for the end of 2012 before believing the claim.
There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
And all sides will fire off patent lawsuits over trivial features like form filling and email forming. The lawyers will get rich the market will be blocked and confused.
All hail patents the great pusher of innovation, NOT.
It that's going to happen it will become the year of the Apple lawsuits.
From TFA: "There are many companies making Android devices and the magic of competition will force them to drive prices down and quality up."
Drive prices down? Yup!
Quality up? Uhm... what? Just like it's done with the current crop of Android phones where there is tons and tons of crap and a few really good ones (Galaxy S2, Nexus, etc)?
I clicked on this thinking the guy might have some insight on why Android tablets were about to make a big jump forward, but all this guy is missing is pom poms and a miniskirt..
The article seems to presume that there is a static size for the amount of people who buy tablets. There isn't. As lower-cost entries enter the market, people who previously could not afford one will be able to buy one. So the market will grow, but it's also likely that Apple's overall sales will grow as the market grows. So, sure, Apple's "market share" may shrink, but it's not like Apple's going to make less money than they did before.
Also, there seems to be an assumption that people buy a tablet sorely based on cost. That is certainly part of how people buy something, but there are also metrics of quality, ease of use and also what you've got already. If you already have an iProduct, I'll bet people are a lot more attracted to the idea they can plug it into the iTunes that's already set up and have it work. Learning something new probably isn't a big driver, even if they save a hundred bucks. Apple could also drop prices on the iPad 2 when the 3 comes out, just as they have done with the iPhone when new generations have arrived, in order to compete with the lower end of the market.
This has been predicted over and over again - pretty much since the launch of the original iPad.
It was always "Oh, the iPad was released for $500 less than everyone was guessing, but it's still way overprice! Just you wait for the cheaper, better, faster Android tablets.... any day now.... next month.... just a few more months! The Xoom is coming and it will destroy the iPad, I mean it will have Flash and an SD card slot, and there's no way it will cost more than an iPad and ship with both of those 'key' features broken... Oh, the iPad 2 is out now... well, what did you expect, honeycomb was never designed for tablets properly, even though we have been crowing about how it was going to be the answer to the 'inferior' iPad... just you wait for Ice Cream Sandwich...."
In short, I've heard it all before. The Eee Pad Transformer is good I guess, and at $400 is cheaper than the iPad but so far not much headway. I really hope there are a few really competitive Android tablets to rival the iPad as there have been handsets to rival the iPhone - the competition is good for everyone. So far though, not seeing it.
that have been saying this kind of stuff for years. iPod is lame. iPhone is a useless device. Nobody in their right mind will buy iPad. iPod's price will drive people to competitors. iPhone's price will make in untenable as a phone. iPad is priced more than a laptop, only idiots will pay for it.
Blah, blah, blah. Once a week someone predicts that Apple has finally reached its apex and it's all downhill from here, as the products lack features, are too expensive, the garden is walled, and new competitors X, Y, and Z have finally figured it out and this will be their week|month|year.
So far, this has always been empirically demonstrated to be so much crap by the time the next week|month|year has arrived. Of course, at some point Apple WILL fail, just like all companies and indeed all things in the universe eventually disintegrate, and because at least once a week someone predicts that this will happen this week, at some point someone will be right.
But when that happens, it won't be because of any insight—just because the pundits have made sure to predict the failure of Apple during EVERY week|month|year cycle. And I seriously doubt this is the time, having just been at the local office supply chain store looking at Android tablets yesterday.
STOP . AMERICA . NOW
People want iPads, not tablets. People don't even know what "tablets" are. Apple have defined a new market, most people buying iPads aren't really sure why they want them yet. It will be impossible for the competition to win over mindshare until they have something *better* than the iPad has. Price will not convince many because as said, people don't want tablets, they want iPads.
This will probably change. But it will take a few years yet IMO. Think about how long it took for people to know why they wanted a PC. This is different (people understand why they want a computer nowadays), but it will still take time.
I write video games for a living, and lately, we've been using Unity. Whenever we do an android build, it has to be tested on a wide array of devices just to be certain that there are no issues related to screen layout or any problematic performance problems. To top it all off, we also have to make multiple builds so that the data can be stored efficiently on each type of platform. This is problematic because it requires separate repositories of the same code-base, because trying to switch between different builds on a single repository within Unity can take several hours as all of the art assets of the work must be reprocessed. To top it all off, drivers for each indiivdual device must be installed, because there is no single general android driver that works for all android devices, which complicates setup tremendously.
On iOS, we can simply test on each generation of the iPhone we are intending to support, and also on the iPad1 and iPad2... and there is absolutely no reprocessing of assets required, as all iOS devices store their data in the exact same way. Finally, supporting the iOS device for development only requires having a mac. No additional drivers are required... one is good to go as soon as they have XCode installed on their system and have installed the necessary provision profiles for uploading to a physical device.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
My spouse wanted an iPad.
For myself, the extra $100-200 premium over an Android tablet is nothing compared to the amount of aggravation I would face
attempting to convince spouse that the Android is equivalent, or even better than the iPad.
Since spouse chose the iPad, she can't blame me for shoddy apps, or confusing interfaces, or crashes.
Sure, it's a case of marketing over facts, but all the other tablets in her office are iPads, so I go with the flow.
If Google/Android really wants to grab market, they should offer a reasonably priced 3G/4G data-only infrastructure,
as I would spend close to the cost of the device on a data plan from the incumbent wireless carriers.
Mission: To provide products that consume time and energy as entertainingly as permitted by the laws of thermodynamics.
You just described the death of Android.
I'm not seeing Android die anytime soon from where I'm sitting.
Python: 'And then suddenly you have a language which says "we're all stuck with whatever the whiniest coder wants".'
As somebody who has both a HoneyComb tablet/Samsung 7" tablet and an iPad (original and 2) I have to say I am really really disappointed with Android. Android has four flaws:
1) Hardware update support SUCKS! I have both a Sony Ericsson Xperia phone, and Acer Iconia Tablet. When I bought the phone it was essentially out of date because Sony said to get the new Android OS you need to buy the more expensive phone. HAD I known that I would not have bought the phone. However Sony did a 180 and said, "ok ok ok we will get you an update." When the original update was released it too Switzerland 7 months to get it. The exact same thing happened with my Acer Iconia. Acer kept hemming and hawing on their 3.1 update and being in Switzerland I was essentially at the tail end of the release. I had Acer Germany unlock the code for me to get my update. This just effen sucks! The Android vendors don't get updates! They just think it is an opportunity for you to buy the latest and greatest piece of hardware NOT!
2) The apps are lacking on Android. Two apps come to mind; Aligator water, and Wetter.com. Put the iPad and Android tablet edition side by side and what you see is that the iPad or iOS app is so much better. Why is that? When I run my Android apps they are slower, and jerkier (yes this has been discussed due to the software architecture choices made). Frankly I don't shive a git! I want a smooth flowing tablet and if Apple found the ideal way so be it, it is the right approach.
3) Hardware software compatibility. I have so many little tweaks and twiddles with the Android system that it just tires me out. Take for example setting up the wireless networking. On my iOS I can use DHCP and everything works. For some odd and strange reason with Android the network connections drop, come back, drop, come back, and drop and come back. They do this for about 5 minutes until they just stay connected. If I put in a network address all is good. Of course you could argue, "wait your network does something funny." Well my answer is that my laptops (windows, linux, and OSX) work just fine, as does my iPhone, and iPad. Thus while maybe it is network issue, I consider it an Android issue since the other devices are ok.
4) The hardware is sub-standard by most, not all vendors in comparison to Apple. Most of the Android hardware sucks. I have a Samsung tablet and it is not bad. Good quality. The Acer is ok, but things like battery life just suck. Overall for the amount of money I pay I am disappointed.
Overall I have to say I am completely disappointed with Android (had high hopes) as I feel Google is doing piss poor job of ensuring a certain amount of quality and usability. Android might sell more devices, but unless Android really changes its stripes it will always be a cheap-skates paradise...
"You can't make a race horse of a pig"
"No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
You bought an Acer and you're complaining? lol
Android is to mobile phones what the Windows PC is to computers. Except Microsoft is better at supplying updates.
It's the commodity - large amount of choice, from many vendors, and thus biggest market share. But most of it poor quality,and full of accident complexity.
As you say, the cheap-skates paradise.
I think it's like this: 2012 is the year of phone ensmartening - which is to say, a big proportion of the world's people will upgrade from a dumbphone to a smaprtphone. Many of them will do it with the attitude "I don't need a damn smartphone anyway, but if it's easier to text with that on-screen keyboard thingie, and my carrier will basically cover the costs, I might as well. So what's my carrier offering me for real cheap?" And you know very well that it will be some crappy Android handset. So yes, I see Android making much bigger gains in 2012 just because it's the default upgrade for billions. The iPhone simply isn't. You have to want one, you don't "get upgraded" to one.
I'm not seeing Android die anytime soon from where I'm sitting.
The glossy white throne with perfectly rounded corners is right over here.
Funnily enough, no it doesn't. Only part of Android is open source, the rest is closed source and needs to be licensed from Google. And if the manufacturer doesn't license the closed source parts, they can't call it Android as Android is a trademark of Google.
Kindle Fire doesn't license those parts, and thus doesn't have the full Android functionality, can't call it's software Android, and doesn't have access to the Android Marketplace.
It's related to Android, but it isn't Android.
Objective-C was developed by Next before they were acquired by Apple. It is the basis of all modern OS X and iOS applications. It is also used by the OpenStep framework for other platforms but I wouldn't classify it as widely used. It is really just an object oriented extension to standard C, much as C++ is. In my opinion it has no equal for building dynamic UI APIs. It really is an advantage for iOS. Any competent C programmer can pick up Objective-C in a couple of days.
As somebody who has both a HoneyComb tablet/Samsung 7" tablet and an iPad (original and 2) I have to say I am really really disappointed with Android. Android has four flaws:
I have an ASUS Transformer and was lent an iPad 2 by a friend. Let's compare!
1) Hardware update support SUCKS!
Same thing here, my Galaxy S and Transformer both get fairly timely updates, but my friend's iPhones are blocked from getting new features like Siri even though the hardware is perfectly capable. Updates for Android make noticeable improvements where as most of the stuff in iOS updates just seems to be ways for Apple to wring more money out of you.
2) The apps are lacking on Android
There is a real lack of apps for iOS because so much is blocked from the App Store. Casual developers and open source projects won't pay the high fees and it also means apps tend to more more expensive and there are fewer free ones. Apple's ridiculous requirements mean you can't get lots of useful apps because they do things like allow you to execute scripts or load ROMs. There is also only one app store and you can't just buy apps via web sites, or back them up to SD card (or even use an SD card), or email them to another phone etc. I have a few apps that are non-market ones.
Also lots of iOS apps just seem to be flashy graphics that slide and zoom nicely but the actual functionally it lacking. In particular there are no good backup apps like Titanium Backup for Android, or BitTorrent, or Tor, or emulators etc.
3) Hardware software compatibility.
The dock connector really sucks. What is wrong with USB? I have to carry a special charging/sync cable, and I have to use the shitty iTunes software just to copy some files off the damn thing. My Android phone has basically replaced the USB flash drive I used to carry. Apple also loves to break the peripherals from the last generation, especially 3rd party ones. The guy who lent me the iPad has some speakers that work perfectly with his iPod Classic but inexplicably don't work at all with his iPhone, even though the connector is the same and there doesn't seem to be any technical reason for it.
Media support on the iPad is terrible too. Everything has to be converted by iTunes which takes ages and there is no Flash for video.
4) The hardware is sub-standard by most, not all vendors in comparison to Apple.
I'd say it's much better generally, at least on comparably priced devices.
Now, a few points of my own:
5) No user changeable battery. I push my phone quite hard and although battery life is better than what my friend's iPhone seems to get eventually that battery will wear out, and I want to be able to change it.
6) No SD card, and I need iTunes just to access the damn thing. The amount Apple charges for an extra 16GB is outrageous, more than I can get a 64GB SD card for.
7) No USB host support, I can plug any random USB gamepad into the Transformer and it just works.
8) Lack of multitasking. I often want to copy/paste from the browser to Colornote or an email but on iOS you have to close each app before going to the other one. There are no background apps either, for instance I use a GPS logger while I am taking photos on my DSLR so I can geotag them later and it does it quietly while I can look at maps etc. without closing it.
9) Poor screen. The iPad 2 screen is only 1024x768, too small for web browsing IMHO. I upgraded my old Thinkpad laptop because the screen was only 1024 pixels wide and would never want to go back to anything under 1280 now. My 12.5" Let's Note is 1400 pixels which seems to be about the right DPI.
10) Expensive accessories and peripherals. Apple charges silly money and seem to be keeping official 3rd party prices high too. You can get knock-off stuff but it tends to be crap, where as on Android I can use generic but good quality peripherals costin
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
> One word "E-Waste". We have too much e-waste from disposable electronics that become useless within a few months and Android is one of the worst culprits for this.
There is actually some truth to this. There are inevitably going to be a lot of crap Android slates released, and I for one will not be buying a slate just because it has a green logo. I've already seen less technically sophisticated friends buying knock-offs and being disappointed in them, and you're right, it does lead to electronic waste, almost more than not having a replaceable battery, requiring you buy a new device to upgrade memory, and enticing you to replace your device whenever some tiny incremental improvement comes out. Cough.
> My opposition to the expansion of Android goes beyond being a user of Apple products at home.
"How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when there is the log in your own eye? "
Just sayin'
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
Overall I have to say I am completely disappointed with Android (had high hopes) as I feel Google is doing piss poor job of ensuring a certain amount of quality and usability. Android might sell more devices, but unless Android really changes its stripes it will always be a cheap-skates paradise...
google makes the OS, not the hardware, and if you think the likes of samsung, acer, et al. would accept google coming in and demanding that the hardware meets google's quality standard, i have a bridge to sell you. hardware manufacturers are already extremely jittery about google "owning" the OS[1]. it wouldn't take much to scare them off.
Um, you might be forgetting that Apple already has a historical record of business without Jobs. Granted, they didn't appreciate him that much at that time...
Actually I think I liked that Apple quite a bit more than the Apple we had under Jobs. I'm not a big Jobs fan, but it's hard to deny that he had the clout and exercised a strong role at applying radical management to their product line. Without him, they'll probably lose focus and discipline and slink back into traditional management sluggishness like other big corps.
Sure, it may take some time to happen. And I do really appreciate the kick in the pants he gave to PDA/smartphone technology.
1) Hardware update support sucks!
Nice try, but you'll have to work a lot harder to convince Slashdotters that the average upgrade experience on Android is at par or better than the average experience on Apple devices. Even with Samsung devices, you are still largely at the mercy of the cellular provider for Android updates.
2) The apps are lacking on Android
It's the walled garden filter on one side versus making no money (and thus no financial incentive to develop anything) on the other. A push at best.
3) Hardware software compatibility.
This comment has merit but is now dated with the release of iOS 5.0. And the last part of your comment complaining about peripherals is laughable... at least Apple devices have 3rd party peripherals to be compatible (or not) with in the first place.
4) The hardware is sub-standard by most, not all vendors in comparison to Apple.
Now you're just trolling mindlessly. Top tier Android devices are on par with Apple in hardware quality, the rest significantly inferior.
5) No user changeable battery. I push my phone quite hard and although battery life is better than what my friend's iPhone seems to get eventually that battery will wear out, and I want to be able to change it.
A sorta valid criticism, except that the battery in the iPhone has high quality and most evidence shows that it is plenty good over the typical length of ownership of a smartphone. I'll grant you the win regardless.
6) No SD card, and I need iTunes just to access the damn thing. The amount Apple charges for an extra 16GB is outrageous, more than I can get a 64GB SD card for.
Missing an SD card slot is a blessing in disguise, in my opinion. It WOULD be nice to have other means other than iTunes, though, to access your data from a PC or Mac. Although, on the other hand, your disgust for iTunes goes well into irrationality, as it is not half as unusable as most Slashdotters seem to suggest.
7) No USB host support, I can plug any random USB gamepad into the Transformer and it just works.
This is a significant letdown for you and the other 5 people yearning for this functionality, agreed.
8) Lack of multitasking. I often want to copy/paste from the browser to Colornote or an email but on iOS you have to close each app before going to the other one. There are no background apps either, for instance I use a GPS logger while I am taking photos on my DSLR so I can geotag them later and it does it quietly while I can look at maps etc. without closing it.
This is factually wrong, as these things are all easily done in iOS devices.
9) Poor screen. The iPad 2 screen is only 1024x768, too small for web browsing IMHO. I upgraded my old Thinkpad laptop because the screen was only 1024 pixels wide and would never want to go back to anything under 1280 now. My 12.5" Let's Note is 1400 pixels which seems to be about the right DPI.
I thought we were comparing iOS to Android here. Nice strawman.
10) Expensive accessories and peripherals. Apple charges silly money and seem to be keeping official 3rd party prices high too. You can get knock-off stuff but it tends to be crap, where as on Android I can use generic but good quality peripherals costing 1/10th as much as the iPad ones.
You can buy peripherals for Android devices now? The wonders never cease.
11) Page display in the browser. Android has reformatted pages since day one to make them readable on a phone screen, but iOS doesn't seem to do it. OK, not strictly tablet related.
This is a good thing for about 10% of the web pages the people typically view.
Yeah, the parent post overstated the sour points of Android, but your reply was an even worse exaggeration going the other way. The +5 insightful is definitely not warranted.
Nobody asked for your opinion either... but look! There it is.
The cesspool just got a check and balance.
You may have jinxed yourself. "The Samsung Galaxy S smartphone and 7-inch Galaxy Tab will not receive the latest version of Android, because Samsung has said its custom TouchWiz user interface, not Google's operating system, is too taxing on the hardware."
The US government have made it clear that we have no inalienable rights; any we do not defend vigorously will be taken.