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The iPhone Is a Nightmare For Carriers

New submitter HungryMonkey writes "According to the latest EBITDA numbers from AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon, the subsidies they have to pay Apple in order to carry the iPhone are drastically reducing their profits. From the Article: '"A logical conclusion is that the iPhone is not good for wireless carriers," says Mike McCormack, an analyst at Nomura Securities. "When we look at the direct and indirect economics that Apple has managed to extract from the carriers, the carrier-level value destruction is quite evident."' So one money sucking leech has attached itself to another money sucking leech?"

31 of 438 comments (clear)

  1. Perspective by Effugas · · Score: 5, Insightful

    http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2012/01/82-percent-of-atts-q4-2011-sales-are-smartphones-66-percent-are-iphones.ars

    Yeah. 66% of AT&T's 4th quarter sales were iPhones. I was on Verizon for years, switched to AT&T only for their iPhone, and stuck with them only for their GSM capabilities worldwide. Sure, your margins are less when you offer a better service. Would you prefer no sales though?

    1. Re:Perspective by Aerorae · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad? Regardless of who's "goodness permeates"?

    2. Re:Perspective by Shakrai · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad?

      Minor nitpick: If they were "dumb pipes" they wouldn't have to subsidize the cost of the iPhone. You'd pay full price for it and obtain service without a contract.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    3. Re:Perspective by wed128 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Deal. I've wanted this for years.

    4. Re:Perspective by Tyler+Eaves · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, again, this is bad, why?

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      --
      TODO: Something witty here...
    5. Re:Perspective by Dusty · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad?

      Not as far as I'm concerned. The sooner the carriers work out where the future is taking them, the sooner they can change their 'investment' in phone branding to improving their network infrastructure.

    6. Re:Perspective by Tharsman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad? Regardless of who's "goodness permeates"?

      For us? No.
      For them? Yes.

      I really think they will die if they have to become dumb pipes.

      They are running an insanely high profit margin scheme right now. The dumb pipe business is very low profit, relatively speaking. A company can certainly live off doing this, but not a company that is setup to depend on such a high profit scheme.

      Call it the Kodak scenario. Kodak is not dying because of relevance, or refusal to adapt. They are dying because their entire structure was setup around extreme profit margins and it is nearly impossible to scale back without dying. Keep in mind scaling back usually means selling factories and real estate (if you find someone to buy them) and firing insane number of employees, all while restructuring your workflow to manage everything with drastically less manpower.

      The same will happen to carriers once they are forced into becoming wireless ISPs. They will start struggling to survive, and new companies built from the ground up with a more streamlined structure will become the dominant dogs.

    7. Re:Perspective by geekoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Except most people are horrible at thinking ahead in financial terms.
      And companies don't go out of their way to inform them of the relevant details so the customer can make a reasonably informed decision.
      oh, and if people had to pay full price, it would probably lower the cost of the iPhone 200 bucks.

      Of course allowing consumer to make informed decision cause a decrease in profits, so it isn't good for Apple of the carrier.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    8. Re:Perspective by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Since you have been able to do that for years, I don't think you are telling the truth.

      Really? Its possible to do that in the USA with an iphone? I'm calling urban legend on that. As far as I know that is not possible. It MIGHT be that you can either get the phone for "free" and pay $120/month for service or you can pay $600 for an unlocked phone and also pay the same $120/month. Or you can buy the phone and pre-paid / non-contract voice service but no data service.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    9. Re:Perspective by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The manufacturers hate this idea because most people would buy the $200 phone instead of the "free" $600 phone.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    10. Re:Perspective by Cutting_Crew · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, again, this is bad, why?

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      how is it $20 instead of $80. I thought your bill wasn't going down if you bought a phone outright or after your 2 year contract is over(your bill still doesnt drop, supposedly you have paid them back the subsidized portion.

    11. Re:Perspective by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      T-mobile USA? Ever heard of them? They've offered non-contract monthly plans (with data, same options for the same price as the contract plans, but one payment up-front and no ETF if/when you leave) since forever, and they recently (a year or two back) added contract plans that are cheaper if you bring your own phone.

      As a bonus, since T-mobile uses SIMs and aren't evil (or at least aren't the class of evil one expects from US mobile providers), if you got on a cheap ($35/mo, a few hundred minutes + unlimited data) monthly plan plan that was offered only for non-smartphones to tether your N800, you can swap the sim to your N900 when you upgrade, then cut it down and swap it to your N9, still pay the same -- I speak from experience.

      On the conventional refill-type prepay, I think T-mobile does have some data options for those (not sure) but I know some of the MVNOs have prepaid data options.

    12. Re:Perspective by Fnord666 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      Except that in the US, you would pay $600 up front and still end up paying the $80 each month. US carriers do not offer any sort of discount if you bring your own phone with you.

      --
      'The tyrant will always find pretext for his tyranny.' - Aesop's Fables
    13. Re:Perspective by The+Mister+Purple · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Speaking of Apple avoiding non-Apple bloatware, I often smile when I imagine the wailing and tooth-gnashing at the wireless carriers that must have followed negotiations with Apple.

      --
      "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." Feynman
    14. Re:Perspective by Tyler+Eaves · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Because the carriers are forced to actually compete on price, since people can switch carriers at the drop of a hat. NO LONG TERM CONTRACTS.

      Plus carriers only have to cover actual operating expenses, not making back the $500 or so that they "lost" from a heavily subsidized phone.

      To give an actual example, a sample plan picked more or less at random, in the UK (Virgin Mobile)

      600 minutes, 2500 texts, 2.5GB of data. 21GBP = ~$33.

      A similar (but inferior plan) from Verizon in the US
      450 minutes = $39.99. Add another $10 for 1000 texts (or $20 for unlimited), and another $30 for 2GB of Data.
      Oh, and your're locked in for 2 years.

      --
      TODO: Something witty here...
    15. Re:Perspective by schlachter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not in the rest of the world. This is how they buy phones.

      --
      My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
    16. Re:Perspective by drakaan · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Actually, it sounds like it's even worse than that.

      ...Nomura's McCormack said carriers feel the need to have the iPhone to maintain their market share. But to make money on the devices, he thinks they will have to raise rates or get tough with Apple on reducing the subsidy...

      OK. Charge people more for iPhones or get tough with Apple, got it.

      ...The latter is practically impossible. So carriers have been gradually hiking prices. Over the past year, Sprint increased its smartphone rates by $10 a month, Verizon ended its unlimited data offering and New Every Two deal, and AT&T ended its unlimited plan and raised its prices by $5 a month...

      ...Wait, what? Yes. Carriers have been hiking prices, but across the board. So now I'm subsidizing the people who want iPhones because the carriers want iPhone users? And iPhone users increase market share but not profit? Am I in bizzaro-world?

      The situation here seems to be that not carrying the iPhone is profitable, since the subsidy cost is so high, but carriers *feel* like they need to carry it because otherwise people who won't end up making them profit will complain and not sign money-losing contracts that cause price hikes for non-apple customers that *do* make them money.

      WTF???

      --
      "Murphy was an optimist" - O'Toole's commentary on Murphy's Law
  2. Then why... by TrailerTrash · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Don't carriers drop Apple? "We'll lose money on every transaction but make it up in volume" has nevevr worked.

    Or, is it that profits are reduced, not eliminated? Value destruction means losing money, not reduced margins. Pretty important to distinguish. If they were losing huge buckets of money, we wouldn't see carriers clamoring to carry the devices. OTOH, selling at reduced margins at high volume can potentially be profit maximizing (e.g., Wal*Mart).

    1. Re:Then why... by Kenja · · Score: 4, Informative

      They (the carriers) dont lose money on each transaction, they just make less. So in that case, less profit per unit by more units is a sustainable business model.

      --

      "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
  3. Poor babies. by Picass0 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Apple drug these backward-ass bozos kicking and screaming into the modern phone era, so cry my a river.

    When I think of the punitive overage changes these carriers have for data, roaming, SMS texting... It warms my heart to think of their financial discomfort.

    For what we pay for cell service in the US we should have a state of the art infrastructure and widespread 4G access.

  4. Really? by tekrat · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Carriers are crying all the way to the bank. Anyone selling the iphone has seen their sales jump as people ditch their carriers in a mad scramble to get the hottest phone on the market.

    A story came out last week detailing that Apple is now one of the biggest phone makers on the planet. This is from a company who's primary market was computers. Clearly, they are doing something right if everyone wants what they are selling.

    If the carriers don't like the iPhone, stop selling it, and watch all your business dry up. That's how the free market works, capitalist pigs.

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  5. And yet they continue to carry it by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Which tells me it must make business sense to do so.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  6. Drastically reduced profits? by tomhath · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Between 2009 and 2010, Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) averaged EBITDA service margin of 46.4% per quarter. In the first quarter that the iPhone went on sale, that fell to 43.7%. Last quarter, when Verizon sold a record 4.2 million iPhones, its margin plunged to 42.2%.

    Gee, margin "plunged" from 46.4% to 42.2%. It sounds like their profits have dropped from really, really obscene to just really, really obscene. I need to get out my tiny violin and start playing it for them.

  7. WTF??? by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How is this Apple's fault? The carrier needs to buy the phones from Apple, and they have a cost.

    In order to get people to sign up for contracts, they give you the handset at a cheaper price, but you have them locked into a 2 year (or whatever contract).

    If Microsoft (or anybody else) came out with the new Super Duper Happy Fun Phone that everyone suddenly wanted ... they'd be in the exact same boat. Because most people aren't going to pay the full cost of a new phone outright. Phones have always been expensive.

    Subsidizing the phone cost is a loss leader, which is exactly what is happening. However, over the next two years, how much profits are they going to make by gouging people for the wireless service/bandwidth they've signed up for? I bet it far outstrips the cost of the phones ... it just happens that a lot of people are moving to those kinds of phones right now.

    The problem is that the carriers have been unwilling to invest in their own infrastructure to keep up with growth, and now they're whining that the device that people want to have costs more than they can afford in one shot.

    I fail to see why Apple (or any phone manufacturer) needs to come down on the price in order to ensure the carriers make money. They can raise the price they sell the phones for, or let another company do it and lose out on the potential business.

    If the carriers are giving too much of a subsidy ... well, that's kinda their problem, isn't it? Apple never told them to give it away.

    I'm betting the latest, shiniest phones from Microsoft, Samsung, Nokia, and pretty much everyone else are pretty damned spendy. If you give away expensive things, that's what happens.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  8. NEARLY 50% MARGIN by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 4, Funny

    Falls to "ALMOST nearly 50% margin."

    Fuck me gently with a chainsaw, Heather. I fail to weep.

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
  9. Is it iphones, or smartphones? by nweaver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The carrier subsidy on the Android phones, especially the fancy ones, also appears to be huge. An unlocked 8 GB Galaxy S2 at Amazon is $600, while a 16 GB iPhone 4S from apple is $650.

    Yet AT&T charges $150 for the S II, and $200 for the 4S. So if the carrier subsidy is related at all to the gap between the contract price and no-contract price, the carrier subsidy for an iPhone is no worse than an Android phone.

    So its probably not the "iPhone", but just the general trend to expensive smartphones compared with lower subsidy needed feature phones.

    --
    Test your net with Netalyzr
  10. Re:"Money sucking leech"? by bonch · · Score: 4, Informative

    Is there a way to block stories by editor?

    Yep! Check your account options in the upper right. People used to take advantage of this feature to block the infamous "personalities" JonKatz and michael.

  11. Oops, typo in the article... by It+doesn't+come+easy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...the subsidies they have to pay Apple in order to carry the iPhone are drastically reducing their [insanely high, customer gouging] profits.

    There, fixed that for you.

    --
    The NSA: The only part of the US government that actually listens.
  12. Carriers brought this on themselves by Karmashock · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Carriers shouldn't have any control over which phones work on their network. They should stop selling cell phones altogether.

    Sell sim cards. Period. Offer some cheapo phones you don't really care about in your store. But make it obvious that users should really get the actual phone somewhere else especially if it's a smart phone.

    AT&T used to sell or even rent land line phones in the early days. If you wanted a phone you had to buy one from the phone company. Today, if you want a landline phone you pick one up at practically anywhere for between 10 dollars for the cheap ones to 200 for the really fancy ones. That's what the wireless carriers need to do.

    When they do that apple can't charge a fee anymore. It's just selling a phone. A bit of hardware. And the carriers aren't selling a phone. They're selling a data plan. Because I imagine that "minutes" are going to be a thing of the past at some point. At what point does it become more practical to just skype everything? Does skype cost the carriers more money then a regular phone connection? I wonder. They're obviously turning it all into data anyway. In any case, once all phones have internet the typical phone/voice connection becomes redundant. Just give everyone a data plan. People will stick to email and text most of the time to save on connection charges and that has to use much less bandwidth then a voice conversation.

    Just sever the relationship entirely between phone and carrier. Sell sim cards. Then the carriers can anti trust apple or something if apple gets snippy about letting some carrier's sim cards work and others not.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  13. Ran out of worlds smallest violins by ilsaloving · · Score: 4, Funny

    Wow, first the RIAA complaining about unfairness, and now telcos complaining they don't make enough profit.

    I think the store just ran out out of Worlds Smallest(tm) violins!

  14. Re:Because the iPhone is selling like crazy by Xeranar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    . . .That was sales not actual devices active. In other words because a huge number of people updated their iPhone in that time period they sold more than Android did. It didn't change the US market share makeup. Apple is still hovering around 30% and Android around 50%.