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The iPhone Is a Nightmare For Carriers

New submitter HungryMonkey writes "According to the latest EBITDA numbers from AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon, the subsidies they have to pay Apple in order to carry the iPhone are drastically reducing their profits. From the Article: '"A logical conclusion is that the iPhone is not good for wireless carriers," says Mike McCormack, an analyst at Nomura Securities. "When we look at the direct and indirect economics that Apple has managed to extract from the carriers, the carrier-level value destruction is quite evident."' So one money sucking leech has attached itself to another money sucking leech?"

47 of 438 comments (clear)

  1. Perspective by Effugas · · Score: 5, Insightful

    http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2012/01/82-percent-of-atts-q4-2011-sales-are-smartphones-66-percent-are-iphones.ars

    Yeah. 66% of AT&T's 4th quarter sales were iPhones. I was on Verizon for years, switched to AT&T only for their iPhone, and stuck with them only for their GSM capabilities worldwide. Sure, your margins are less when you offer a better service. Would you prefer no sales though?

    1. Re:Perspective by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Gag me with a spoon. FTFA:

      chalk another victory for Apple's superior product and unmatched level customer satisfaction. Businesses are just as gaga over the iPhone as individuals -- even archconservative firms such as Halliburton have made the switch.

      OK, you like Apple. Next time don't put so much sugar in the Kool-Aid.

      Basically, he's just wishing that the wireless carriers would just be dumb pipes and let Apple's Goodness permeate the eather unimpaired.

      As I said, too much sugar.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Perspective by Aerorae · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad? Regardless of who's "goodness permeates"?

    3. Re:Perspective by Shakrai · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad?

      Minor nitpick: If they were "dumb pipes" they wouldn't have to subsidize the cost of the iPhone. You'd pay full price for it and obtain service without a contract.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    4. Re:Perspective by wed128 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Deal. I've wanted this for years.

    5. Re:Perspective by Tyler+Eaves · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, again, this is bad, why?

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      --
      TODO: Something witty here...
    6. Re:Perspective by Dusty · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad?

      Not as far as I'm concerned. The sooner the carriers work out where the future is taking them, the sooner they can change their 'investment' in phone branding to improving their network infrastructure.

    7. Re:Perspective by Tharsman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Would having wireless carriers be dumb pipes really be so bad? Regardless of who's "goodness permeates"?

      For us? No.
      For them? Yes.

      I really think they will die if they have to become dumb pipes.

      They are running an insanely high profit margin scheme right now. The dumb pipe business is very low profit, relatively speaking. A company can certainly live off doing this, but not a company that is setup to depend on such a high profit scheme.

      Call it the Kodak scenario. Kodak is not dying because of relevance, or refusal to adapt. They are dying because their entire structure was setup around extreme profit margins and it is nearly impossible to scale back without dying. Keep in mind scaling back usually means selling factories and real estate (if you find someone to buy them) and firing insane number of employees, all while restructuring your workflow to manage everything with drastically less manpower.

      The same will happen to carriers once they are forced into becoming wireless ISPs. They will start struggling to survive, and new companies built from the ground up with a more streamlined structure will become the dominant dogs.

    8. Re:Perspective by geekoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Except most people are horrible at thinking ahead in financial terms.
      And companies don't go out of their way to inform them of the relevant details so the customer can make a reasonably informed decision.
      oh, and if people had to pay full price, it would probably lower the cost of the iPhone 200 bucks.

      Of course allowing consumer to make informed decision cause a decrease in profits, so it isn't good for Apple of the carrier.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    9. Re:Perspective by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Since you have been able to do that for years, I don't think you are telling the truth.

      Really? Its possible to do that in the USA with an iphone? I'm calling urban legend on that. As far as I know that is not possible. It MIGHT be that you can either get the phone for "free" and pay $120/month for service or you can pay $600 for an unlocked phone and also pay the same $120/month. Or you can buy the phone and pre-paid / non-contract voice service but no data service.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    10. Re:Perspective by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The manufacturers hate this idea because most people would buy the $200 phone instead of the "free" $600 phone.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    11. Re:Perspective by ebinrock · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm hoping that at some point, as what happened to PC's, the prices of unlocked smartphones will come down from $600-$700 more to $100-$200. Wireless carriers will have to adopt the unlocked/dumb pipe model in order for consumers to see the true cost of the phone and therefore have the market lower the prices. But until we really get real competition among U.S. carriers, they're not going to let go of their control. Because of the subsidized model, or maybe even independent of that business model, carriers have WAY too much control over the phones, let alone the plans. All their bloatware is on it, and you can't get it off (unless you root or jailbreak the phones). (I'm talking mostly about the Android and other platforms; somehow Apple was able to avoid this on their units.) Even with a PC, if it came with bloatware, you can always uninstall it. And (again, mostly with Android) you can't get the latest OS on a brand new device unless it's of the exclusive Nexus line (and that's not always on every carrier, and lately some have put some bloatware on it as well, and denied a core functionality on it in favor of their own version). It's a mess. I would love to just buy a "naked" phone and choose my carrier, just like I can with the good ol' landline phone.

    12. Re:Perspective by Cutting_Crew · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, again, this is bad, why?

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      how is it $20 instead of $80. I thought your bill wasn't going down if you bought a phone outright or after your 2 year contract is over(your bill still doesnt drop, supposedly you have paid them back the subsidized portion.

    13. Re:Perspective by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      T-mobile USA? Ever heard of them? They've offered non-contract monthly plans (with data, same options for the same price as the contract plans, but one payment up-front and no ETF if/when you leave) since forever, and they recently (a year or two back) added contract plans that are cheaper if you bring your own phone.

      As a bonus, since T-mobile uses SIMs and aren't evil (or at least aren't the class of evil one expects from US mobile providers), if you got on a cheap ($35/mo, a few hundred minutes + unlimited data) monthly plan plan that was offered only for non-smartphones to tether your N800, you can swap the sim to your N900 when you upgrade, then cut it down and swap it to your N9, still pay the same -- I speak from experience.

      On the conventional refill-type prepay, I think T-mobile does have some data options for those (not sure) but I know some of the MVNOs have prepaid data options.

    14. Re:Perspective by Fnord666 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Sure, you have to front the $600 for the phone, but your monthly bill is now $20 instead of $80. After 10 months you're breaking even, and after the two years of the contract your're about $700 ahead, enough to pay for a "free" phone upgrade, and then it's gravy from there on out.

      Except that in the US, you would pay $600 up front and still end up paying the $80 each month. US carriers do not offer any sort of discount if you bring your own phone with you.

      --
      'The tyrant will always find pretext for his tyranny.' - Aesop's Fables
    15. Re:Perspective by jackbird · · Score: 3, Informative

      USA -> USA rates:

      $0.17/minute voice
      $0.12/text
      $0.17/MB data

      Holy crap. Nearly $300/month for medium usage (500 minutes + 200 texts + 1 GB data). This is an improvement?

    16. Re:Perspective by The+Mister+Purple · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Speaking of Apple avoiding non-Apple bloatware, I often smile when I imagine the wailing and tooth-gnashing at the wireless carriers that must have followed negotiations with Apple.

      --
      "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." Feynman
    17. Re:Perspective by Tyler+Eaves · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Because the carriers are forced to actually compete on price, since people can switch carriers at the drop of a hat. NO LONG TERM CONTRACTS.

      Plus carriers only have to cover actual operating expenses, not making back the $500 or so that they "lost" from a heavily subsidized phone.

      To give an actual example, a sample plan picked more or less at random, in the UK (Virgin Mobile)

      600 minutes, 2500 texts, 2.5GB of data. 21GBP = ~$33.

      A similar (but inferior plan) from Verizon in the US
      450 minutes = $39.99. Add another $10 for 1000 texts (or $20 for unlimited), and another $30 for 2GB of Data.
      Oh, and your're locked in for 2 years.

      --
      TODO: Something witty here...
    18. Re:Perspective by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 3, Informative

      You can't do that with AT&T as a new subscriber any way that I can find. All their data plans require a 2 year commitment (i.e. contract) regardless of whether you get a phone subsidy or not. Presumably, once you come out the other end of that, you can bring your own iPhone to the party. I've done that with T-Mobile and my string of Blackberries. Another problem with AT&T here in the SF area is that there are so many iPhones that the network is saturated and just crawls.

      --
      Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
    19. Re:Perspective by Aryden · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, but the UK and the rest of the EU treat mobile phones in a completely different manner. Here you have certain phones for certain carriers (mainly because of the bullshit lolTDMA, CDMA, CDMAMod, and 3 different bands of GSM covering the US. The system here has been retarded since the very beginning. I sold cell phones after I got out of the Army and it was friggin miserable.

      Dumb pipe model is the way it really needs to go. AT&T doesn't dictate to me what landline phone I can connect to my home phone service, it shouldn't have to with mobile either.

    20. Re:Perspective by schlachter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not in the rest of the world. This is how they buy phones.

      --
      My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
    21. Re:Perspective by drakaan · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Actually, it sounds like it's even worse than that.

      ...Nomura's McCormack said carriers feel the need to have the iPhone to maintain their market share. But to make money on the devices, he thinks they will have to raise rates or get tough with Apple on reducing the subsidy...

      OK. Charge people more for iPhones or get tough with Apple, got it.

      ...The latter is practically impossible. So carriers have been gradually hiking prices. Over the past year, Sprint increased its smartphone rates by $10 a month, Verizon ended its unlimited data offering and New Every Two deal, and AT&T ended its unlimited plan and raised its prices by $5 a month...

      ...Wait, what? Yes. Carriers have been hiking prices, but across the board. So now I'm subsidizing the people who want iPhones because the carriers want iPhone users? And iPhone users increase market share but not profit? Am I in bizzaro-world?

      The situation here seems to be that not carrying the iPhone is profitable, since the subsidy cost is so high, but carriers *feel* like they need to carry it because otherwise people who won't end up making them profit will complain and not sign money-losing contracts that cause price hikes for non-apple customers that *do* make them money.

      WTF???

      --
      "Murphy was an optimist" - O'Toole's commentary on Murphy's Law
    22. Re:Perspective by Bill+Hayden · · Score: 3, Informative

      Except in the US, you pay minutes for received calls too. Many people from Europe don't realize this.

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  2. Problem? by zoloto · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I can't see the problem with this. Phone carriers, internet carriers too since many seem to be doing both, should be dumb pipes. There's no dark side to that.

  3. Then why... by TrailerTrash · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Don't carriers drop Apple? "We'll lose money on every transaction but make it up in volume" has nevevr worked.

    Or, is it that profits are reduced, not eliminated? Value destruction means losing money, not reduced margins. Pretty important to distinguish. If they were losing huge buckets of money, we wouldn't see carriers clamoring to carry the devices. OTOH, selling at reduced margins at high volume can potentially be profit maximizing (e.g., Wal*Mart).

    1. Re:Then why... by Kenja · · Score: 4, Informative

      They (the carriers) dont lose money on each transaction, they just make less. So in that case, less profit per unit by more units is a sustainable business model.

      --

      "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
  4. So? by viperidaenz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Its an expensive phone. Are Apple forcing them to give it away? sounds more like "Carriers business model is destroying their profits"

  5. Poor babies. by Picass0 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Apple drug these backward-ass bozos kicking and screaming into the modern phone era, so cry my a river.

    When I think of the punitive overage changes these carriers have for data, roaming, SMS texting... It warms my heart to think of their financial discomfort.

    For what we pay for cell service in the US we should have a state of the art infrastructure and widespread 4G access.

  6. Really? by tekrat · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Carriers are crying all the way to the bank. Anyone selling the iphone has seen their sales jump as people ditch their carriers in a mad scramble to get the hottest phone on the market.

    A story came out last week detailing that Apple is now one of the biggest phone makers on the planet. This is from a company who's primary market was computers. Clearly, they are doing something right if everyone wants what they are selling.

    If the carriers don't like the iPhone, stop selling it, and watch all your business dry up. That's how the free market works, capitalist pigs.

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  7. And yet they continue to carry it by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Which tells me it must make business sense to do so.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  8. Drastically reduced profits? by tomhath · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Between 2009 and 2010, Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) averaged EBITDA service margin of 46.4% per quarter. In the first quarter that the iPhone went on sale, that fell to 43.7%. Last quarter, when Verizon sold a record 4.2 million iPhones, its margin plunged to 42.2%.

    Gee, margin "plunged" from 46.4% to 42.2%. It sounds like their profits have dropped from really, really obscene to just really, really obscene. I need to get out my tiny violin and start playing it for them.

    1. Re:Drastically reduced profits? by GameboyRMH · · Score: 3, Funny

      DID YOU KNOW that the execs' kids had to swim in a gold-rimmed pool? How are kids supposed to learn to swim without a platinum-rimmed pool!?

      They all wept into their caviar and took a private jet to a sad violin concerto in Italy.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  9. WTF??? by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How is this Apple's fault? The carrier needs to buy the phones from Apple, and they have a cost.

    In order to get people to sign up for contracts, they give you the handset at a cheaper price, but you have them locked into a 2 year (or whatever contract).

    If Microsoft (or anybody else) came out with the new Super Duper Happy Fun Phone that everyone suddenly wanted ... they'd be in the exact same boat. Because most people aren't going to pay the full cost of a new phone outright. Phones have always been expensive.

    Subsidizing the phone cost is a loss leader, which is exactly what is happening. However, over the next two years, how much profits are they going to make by gouging people for the wireless service/bandwidth they've signed up for? I bet it far outstrips the cost of the phones ... it just happens that a lot of people are moving to those kinds of phones right now.

    The problem is that the carriers have been unwilling to invest in their own infrastructure to keep up with growth, and now they're whining that the device that people want to have costs more than they can afford in one shot.

    I fail to see why Apple (or any phone manufacturer) needs to come down on the price in order to ensure the carriers make money. They can raise the price they sell the phones for, or let another company do it and lose out on the potential business.

    If the carriers are giving too much of a subsidy ... well, that's kinda their problem, isn't it? Apple never told them to give it away.

    I'm betting the latest, shiniest phones from Microsoft, Samsung, Nokia, and pretty much everyone else are pretty damned spendy. If you give away expensive things, that's what happens.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  10. leeches and centipedes by jduhls · · Score: 3, Informative

    So one money sucking leech has attached itself to another money sucking leech?

    It's more like a "Human Centipede" relationship.

  11. NEARLY 50% MARGIN by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 4, Funny

    Falls to "ALMOST nearly 50% margin."

    Fuck me gently with a chainsaw, Heather. I fail to weep.

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
    1. Re:NEARLY 50% MARGIN by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's a rent extraction - not economic value through gain in actual goods or services.

      That's why there's a recession/depession - an economy leveraged on wealth-transfer over actual work.

      It seems the "free market" wants to be a casino, not a merchantile exchange.

      --
      "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
      Never been known to fail..."
    2. Re:NEARLY 50% MARGIN by Serious+Callers+Only · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's a rent extraction - not economic value through gain in actual goods or services.

      You don't consider lending money or investing to be a service? I'd love to see the mental gymnastics you have to perform to square that one away.

      In an information economy the intangible can become as valuable as the tangible, and 'actual work' can be performed on bytes, transforming them into some other non-random set of bytes, without coming into contact with the real world - all that is solid melts into air, but the air is still considered valuable. The distinction of rent from payment for labour is really quite a difficult one to make when you consider service to be labour, as many services (say setting up a website) could be considered simply owning the means of production and collecting rent from your users. Things have moved on a bit from 1848 when there was a far more clear distinction between those who laboured and those who had the means to hire labour.

    3. Re:NEARLY 50% MARGIN by bmajik · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It seems the "free market" wants to be a casino, not a merchantile exchange.

      Certainly, actors within the market want that to be the case.

      But they cannot acheive this without cooperation from the government.

      Corporations aren't stupid. The easiest way to beat your competitors is to lock them out of your markets with legal power.

      Tried setting up a competing GSM network in your neighborhood lately? OpenBSM exists, after all. You _could_ do it. But the FCC (on behalf of Verizon, AT&T, etc) would haul your ass into court.

      And who gave Verizon the right to blast their harmful radiation onto your property and into yoru house anyway? You didn't. I don't suppose Verizon would be ok if you parked outside their company headquarters and shined lasers into the windows all day.

      What's the difference between them assaulting your property with their radiation and you assaulting their property with yours?

      They paid more for the laws than you did.

      That's the difference.

      Your tax dollars are paying for the police that keep them safe from competition and take you to jail if you _try_ to compete with them.

      Is it Verizon's fault for pulling the strings this way? Sure. Isn't it your fault for agreeing to be a marionette?

      --
      My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
  12. Re:Ya know what would be really funny...? by TheRaven64 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Even better, if mobile phone carriers stopped selling phones altogether. Most of the smaller ones in the UK have stopped already. Just buy a phone, buy a SIM, combine the two yourself.

    Of course, if you look at SIM-only plans, you see how much you're actually paying for the 'free' phone. My carrier, for example, offers a £12 SIM-only plan and an identical £30 smartphone plan. The SIM-only deal is a 1-month contract, the smartphone plan is a 12-month contract. So, if you use it for the minimum period, you've paid £216 more than if you were on the SIM-only plan. The smartphone plan comes with a few choices of phone. The first one I looked at, the HTC Desire S, costs £154 (new) unlocked, on Amazon. Probably less if you shop around.

    So, the 'subsidised' 'free' phone actually works out as a loan with an APR of about 40%. If you buy it now on your credit card and pay the bill at the end of the year, you'll still be better off...

    --
    I am TheRaven on Soylent News
  13. Is it iphones, or smartphones? by nweaver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The carrier subsidy on the Android phones, especially the fancy ones, also appears to be huge. An unlocked 8 GB Galaxy S2 at Amazon is $600, while a 16 GB iPhone 4S from apple is $650.

    Yet AT&T charges $150 for the S II, and $200 for the 4S. So if the carrier subsidy is related at all to the gap between the contract price and no-contract price, the carrier subsidy for an iPhone is no worse than an Android phone.

    So its probably not the "iPhone", but just the general trend to expensive smartphones compared with lower subsidy needed feature phones.

    --
    Test your net with Netalyzr
  14. Re:"Money sucking leech"? by bonch · · Score: 4, Informative

    Is there a way to block stories by editor?

    Yep! Check your account options in the upper right. People used to take advantage of this feature to block the infamous "personalities" JonKatz and michael.

  15. Apples Warranty by Pirow · · Score: 3, Informative

    I work for one of the UK network operators which had made me develop a new level of hatred for iPhones.

    One of the way the iPhone is hurting carriers is that Apple only offer a 12 month warranty as standard, sure you can extend it with Apple Care, but no one bothers even if they take out the iPhone as part of a 24 month contract.

    A customer will phone up over 12 months into an 18 or 24 month contract to say their iPhone is faulty, all we can offer is a chargeable repair as the phone's out of warranty, naturally they're not very happy ("I got it from you, not from apple!") and they'll either want to cancel their contract without any sort of termination fee or get a working phone, 99% of the time if they complain enough they'll get a free of charge replacement iPhone just to keep them happy in the hopes that they'll upgrade at the end of their term (and it works out cheaper than having the call escalate further). This is happening hundreds if not thousands of times a day where I work, sure it happens with other brands too, but to a lesser extent and normally with lower price handsets.

    I'm shocked that so many people are willing to accept a 12 month warranty on a product that markets its self as the best in the market.

  16. Oops, typo in the article... by It+doesn't+come+easy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...the subsidies they have to pay Apple in order to carry the iPhone are drastically reducing their [insanely high, customer gouging] profits.

    There, fixed that for you.

    --
    The NSA: The only part of the US government that actually listens.
  17. Carriers brought this on themselves by Karmashock · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Carriers shouldn't have any control over which phones work on their network. They should stop selling cell phones altogether.

    Sell sim cards. Period. Offer some cheapo phones you don't really care about in your store. But make it obvious that users should really get the actual phone somewhere else especially if it's a smart phone.

    AT&T used to sell or even rent land line phones in the early days. If you wanted a phone you had to buy one from the phone company. Today, if you want a landline phone you pick one up at practically anywhere for between 10 dollars for the cheap ones to 200 for the really fancy ones. That's what the wireless carriers need to do.

    When they do that apple can't charge a fee anymore. It's just selling a phone. A bit of hardware. And the carriers aren't selling a phone. They're selling a data plan. Because I imagine that "minutes" are going to be a thing of the past at some point. At what point does it become more practical to just skype everything? Does skype cost the carriers more money then a regular phone connection? I wonder. They're obviously turning it all into data anyway. In any case, once all phones have internet the typical phone/voice connection becomes redundant. Just give everyone a data plan. People will stick to email and text most of the time to save on connection charges and that has to use much less bandwidth then a voice conversation.

    Just sever the relationship entirely between phone and carrier. Sell sim cards. Then the carriers can anti trust apple or something if apple gets snippy about letting some carrier's sim cards work and others not.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  18. Ran out of worlds smallest violins by ilsaloving · · Score: 4, Funny

    Wow, first the RIAA complaining about unfairness, and now telcos complaining they don't make enough profit.

    I think the store just ran out out of Worlds Smallest(tm) violins!

  19. Re:Because the iPhone is selling like crazy by Xeranar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    . . .That was sales not actual devices active. In other words because a huge number of people updated their iPhone in that time period they sold more than Android did. It didn't change the US market share makeup. Apple is still hovering around 30% and Android around 50%.

  20. Losses one time, revenue forever... by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Informative

    Sprint announced a large upswing in new customers last quarter -- all because of the iPhone. However, their losses increased, too -- all because of the iPhone.

    The losses are a single quarter. The revenue the new customers bring lasts for two years.

    And after that there's a great chance Sprint gets to keep them as customers (if they manage things well).

    So it can make a LOT of sense to take some loss now for quite a lot of potential future gain (and a lot of the gain is not just potential, but pretty much assured).

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley