Slashdot Mirror
Iran War Clock Set At Ten Minutes To Midnight
Hugh Pickens writes "The Atlantic has assembled a high-profile panel of experts, including a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran, a Senior Vice President at the Council on Foreign Relations, a Deputy Head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and a military correspondent at Haaretz, to periodically estimate the chances of conflict with Iran. The Iran War Clock is not designed to be pro-war or anti-war. Instead, the purpose is to estimate the chances of conflict in the hope of producing a more informed debate. Each panelist makes an individual estimate about the percentage chance of war and we report the average score and based on this number, the Iran War Clock is adjusted so that the hand moves closer to, or further away from, midnight. 'On the one hand, the panelists are highly knowledgeable. On the other hand, there are sufficient members of the panel that any individual error should not have an overly negative effect on the aggregate prediction.' If there is a zero percent chance of war, the clock hand is at 20 minutes to midnight. Each extra 5 percent chance of war moves the hand one minute closer to midnight. 'We're humble about the accuracy of this prediction, which is really a collective "gut-check" feeling. But it may be closer to the truth than the alternative forecasts available.' The panel's first estimate puts the odds of war in the next twelve months at 48 percent, consistent with predictions market Intrade.com, which estimates a 40 percent chance of a U.S./Israeli strike by December 2012."
Hearing the ticking of a clock and seeing a deadline approaching always has a calming effect!
I'm sure this will be taken every bit as seriously as the Doomsday Clock.
This is possibly the most deliberately confusing way to try to explain our chances of war to anyone. Twenty minutes to midnight means a 0% chance? Why are we restricting a scale designed to have 720 minutes to just 20? This is just designed to scare people (for whatever reason) into thinking war is more probable than it really is. I have no problem with the panel, just the manner in which they displayed their results.
"Going to war without the French is like going deer hunting without your accordion." ~General Norman Schwarzkopf
I'd say the probability of a war with Iran is 0.
That is, unless Israel and/or the U.S. is determined to start one.
is give peace a chance.
The chance of going to war with Iran is a 9.5 based on a scale from 9 to 10.
WTF - a zero chance of war means 11:40pm. Shouldn't that be closer to 12:01 AM? I mean 10 minutes to midnight (when, I presume, we launch the pumpkins and somebody gets caught wearing rags instead of a ball gown) sounds a lot worse when compared to a 24 hours day than to a 20 minute window.
Threat Level for the day: Chartreuse
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
I assume none of you tech types are actually going to die in Oil War III?
This (and the Doomsday Clock) are just stupid gimmicks. They get in the way of facts. It's just lousy journalism.
Just state the percentage chance -- percentages are clear. Even if they are just probabilities and do not necessarily reflect what will happen in any way.
Considering Iran's leadership, anything could happen at any time. Using a retarded clock with a deliberately confusing scale isn't going to make that any clearer.
This is possibly the most deliberately confusing way to try to explain our chances of war to anyone. Twenty minutes to midnight means a 0% chance? Why are we restricting a scale designed to have 720 minutes to just 20? This is just designed to scare people (for whatever reason) into thinking war is more probable than it really is. I have no problem with the panel, just the manner in which they displayed their results.
I thought the same thing. Why not simply say "48% chance of war by December 2012"? Another thing I found quite humorous was that this is titled "The Iran War Clock" which made me think 'damn those war mongering religious fundamentalists' but then when I get to the end of the summary I see they reference a "U.S./Israeli strike" which makes me think 'perhaps this should be called The U.S./Isreali War Clock'? I mean, is this clock about Iran nuking a neighbor or Israel? Or is this clock about the US and Israel tag-teaming on Iran? Or is it a split and, if so, what's that split on the 48%?
And yet another peculiar thing was that I searched around for the panel's positions and stances of each member in order to understand why this war clock is now at ten minutes and how this is any different than, say, the past twenty years of Iran. It's a coin flip that war will break out by the end of the year? Hasn't this always been sort of the sentiment with Iran? What makes this so different now, specifically?
My work here is dung.
'We're humble about the accuracy of this prediction, which is really a collective "gut-check" feeling
Actually, we asked two guys if there would be a war. One said "yes", the other "no". So we were going to say there was a 50% chance, but then we changed it to 48% because that sounded more scientific.
How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
It's 11:06 Here in Tehran and as I was reading the title there was a explosion near my apartment. I thought US/Israel have started the war and they are blowing Mehrabad Airport (as in Battlefield 3)
It was just an end-of-the-year fireworks explosive...
He abandoned it when Einstein discovered that time is relative. I would only agree that a symbolic clock is as nourishing to the intellect as photograph of oxygen to a drowning man.
Claiming that we're 10 minutes to war, even a figurative 10 minutes, is like claiming that we're 20 years from nuclear fusion.
It's not something you can sensibly calculate, and any attempt is going to be based more on personal prejudices. They will also have an incentive to constantly keep the clock near doomsday for the same reason that the Homeland Security threat level never goes down to green.
except the US has now been at war for almost 11 years and most people are tired of it and the 5000 or so dead soldiers. there is close to 0 public support for another war
and the US army isn't ready for it either
I'm on my 33rd Iran War Calendar.
How about we just stop playing world police? I don't want to send our youngsters out there to die in another shithole just because of overly paranoid people in government.
Leave Iran alone. If they actually *ATTACK* our allies, *THEN* I can understand going to war. But let's not fucking START one.
It was a Bush underling, Jed Babbin. Schwarzkopf was honored as a Honorary First-Class Private in the French Foreign Legion in 1991. France sent 18,000 troops to that war.
Looking for attention
That makes it seem like it's entirely random, like the chances for an asteroid collision.
In fact, though, the decision to go war or not will be made by a handful of people or just one: Obama.
And since this is going to be a preventive war (preventing Iran from enriching nuclear fuel for its power and medical reactors), it's an at-will decision.
I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
I always thought that the whole point of the Doomsday Clock was to demonstrate the brinkmanship of the Cold War, ie that we were always near the point of outright conflict, and that certain events could bring us closer to or further away from that point. Our relationship with Iran is vastly different than ours was with the Soviets, and we are much further away from an outright war than we were with the Soviets. To me, 10 minutes to midnight means that Israel has already loaded the bombs on the wings and Iran has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz and we can expect a war soon unless people back down, not a 50% chance of war with both sides posturing but still talking. Their choice of 20 minutes=0% means they are simply exaggerating the implications of their results and trying to make the situation seem worse than it really is. It's a very disingenuous move designed to grab headlines and generate publicity, nothing more. "10 minutes to midnight" sounds a lot scarier and more headline-worthy than "5:45pm". But 5:45pm is much more accurate to where we are, using a clock model (assuming noon is 0% and midnight is "holy shit World War 3 just started").
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
Every Israeli is require to serve in the military (or equivalent public service). And when those soldiers finish basic, they do it on top of Masada. Pretty powerful message. Better to take on the Roman Empire and be completely wiped out than to compromise, even in the slightest.
If Israel wants to jump off the cliff and start a war, that's their business. If they would rather all die than to compromise with the Palestinians or Iranians in any way, that's their call. Build all the provocative settlements on Palestinian land you like, put up more walls to ghettoize them even more, kill all the Iranian nuclear scientists you like. Keep being pricks all you want.
But this American doesn't want to follow them off the cliff that they seem DETERMINED to jump off of. I don't want to see my President start World War III out of some foolish bullshit belief that Israel is looking out for ANYONE else but Israel, that we're BFF's. Find another way to get the Jewish vote, Mr. President.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
I feel like you haven't been watching the republican preliminaries...
Does this mean the use of a nuclear weapon is more probable?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B - D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
Not the Secretary of State, not Assistant Secretary of State, not Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, not even Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, but 'Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran'. If that isnt a made-up title it ought to be. As distinguished as the title of Junior Interim Alternate Representative for Regional Greensward Eliminations that I gave my dog.
Iran has been at war with us since the revolution. Its time Americans started recognizing that fact and speak/act accordingly.
No kidding... I went out for some persian the other night and the next day I was as sick as a dog. I'm never going back to that joint.
Let's nuke 'em.
Eh... it could go either way (waggling hand).
The world isn't about right and wrong and anyway, what you consider right and wrong is considered rather silly by 6 billion people. It is about trying to ensure that tomorrow won't be a hell of a lot worse then today. And a Muslim run world would be a hell of a lot worse? Want to proof me wrong? Reverse the migration streams. As bad as some claim the west is, a lot of people would risk a dangerous crossing in tiny boats for a living as toilet cleaners rather then be anywhere else.
What does migration have got to do with it? Libya used to help Europe in stemming the tide of immigrants from further south. Further uproar in that area will not help stem further migration, it was one of the reasons actions against Libya were opposed in the west by a lot of people (because they were for peace you thought? How silly).
Iran is a lynch pin in a very complex scenario where all the actors and their lines are unknown and performed in the dark for a blind audience. You could say it is playing a game but what game? With what rules and with which cards? The west has learned the hard way that enforcing its values on another culture doesn't work, Iraq and Afghanistan are disaster areas. Libya is too early to tell so going into Iran is unlikely be a quick easy win. But as long as Iran remains, Syria remains. Sudan remains, Northern Nigeria remains... gutting Iran would send a strong message but is also unacceptable... so what to do?
Nothing? Then you keep having to react to whatever it pulls next... Iran not hostile? Yeah, the mass murdering in Sudan and Nigeria are just for laughs. Iran knows Muslims soldiers have the military value of they regimental donkey so they fight their wars by proxy.
What do YOU propose is done in Syria? Nothing? Deny anything is wrong? Somehow blame it all on Israel? Well nothing you can do it about it without upsetting Iran. So thousands of Muslims die at the hand of Muslims and you do nothing? Speak up when you say that... no, that is not acceptable either.
Politicians are often said to think as this, "people say something must done, this is something, so it must be done". That is true enough... but people keep shouting "something must be done". YOU come up with something better.
Ideally, war should be the last answer, it often is. The pity is that it often also is the only answer. Will Iran be attacked by the end of the year? No idea. To many interest, not always as you expect, many conflicting and a lot of actors who are pulling unseen strings. It is not just about testing the west by proxy, those pulling those strings would also not want to be seen to fail again, so they might force their puppet to relax. (If Iran backed by China fails and the Chinese economy suffers are the oil now moves west again without China buying it cheap thanks to the Iran embargo limitting competition for it would the Chinese people realize they can rebel as well) Overly complex but that is how it is all connected.
War happens when those pulling the wires loose control of them. It has been happenig quite a lot really and by definition of loosing control, you can't predict it.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
the US has been at war with the iranian people since the cia overthrough the democratically elected government in '53 and installed the shah who was a brutal, totalitarian who squandered the oil wealth of his country. when the shah was finally thrown out the cia got their friend saddam to start an 8 year war that left over a million iranians dead and saw the use of nbc used on iranian military personnel and civilians.
clearly the iranians are to blame.
read All the Shahs Men for a first-hand account of the '53 coup
Just in time for daylight savings time, after which the clock will be 10 minutes until 1AM, crisis averted.
try { do() || do_not(); } catch (JediException err) { yoda(err); }
"If there is a zero percent chance of war, the clock hand is at 20 minutes to midnight."
Just posting something remotely like this is an insult to the readers.
Wow, really nerdy/geeky news! Kudos Soulskill, you're the new FoxNews!
Get my e-mail after a captcha test in: http://tinymailt
with out new wars.
That doesn't mean that someone isn't pushing them into it. No public support and lack of preparation has never stopped politicians. They're just waiting for an opportunity to spin it into a positive thing.
What about Iran's continuing threats to destroy Israel, not just the supposedly mistranslated rhetorical device "wipe from map" but also the very real and unmistakable threats to destroy the country? What about their continued stockpiling of advanced missiles in Lebanon, manned by Iranian technicians, with the sole purpose of bombing Israel from just over the border, in direct violation of the 2006 UN-mediated armistice? What about Iran's continued sponsorship of terroristic activities all over the world? The large number of American soldiers blown up by Iranian-supplied bombs and armor-piercing ordnance in Iraq?
You can cluck about peace all you want, and both a mercantile/high tech Israel and a war-weary U.S. would love it to be a peaceful world, but unfortunately the real world simply is not so, and Iran least of all. Most of the Iranian people doubtlessly want peace just as we do, but they are ruled by crazy mullahs who have an apocalyptic vision of a golden cloud over Jerusalem. They are planning to nuke Israel, and idiots in the West ignore this at their own peril. Not only would Israel undoubtedly retaliate and destroy most of Iran's cities, but the conflagration would probably spread. Tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people are going to die if we don't stop them, by sanctions or by espionage or by outright war.
My gut feeling is that while the Israelis are talking war, they are actually planning more devious steps to halt the Iran nuclear project. For one thing, they have hinted all along that they have resources deeply embedded in Iran who have been sabotaging the nuclear projects since the 1980s. This may be a kind of disinformation, but Israel has thousands of Iranian immigrants to draw on, who are fluent in Farsi and the culture.
Probably, Mossad is hoping to detonate a dirty nuke of some sort deep inside the enrichment facility that would render the place unusable, kill minimal bystanders, and set the Iranians back by several years. It would be hard to trace the cause, and Iran would be faced with either admitting it was building nukes, or else try to cover it up while trying to rebuild, a daunting prospect given the tightening noose of sanctions. This would be the most appealing outcome to the situation.
it's = "it is"; its = possessive. E.g., it's flapping its wings.
Meh. The Republican primaries are all about appealing to the core Republicans, since they're the ones you have to make happy to win the nomination.
Whoever comes out of the primaries is going to be in for a shock if they keep beating the drums of war in the run-up to the general election.
But I'm betting it'll be Romney and he's smarter than that.
The enemies of Democracy are
5.000 soldiers is a lot. Care to say how many civilians? Or do you not care about the people you are trying to liberate?
Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
Iran has been at war with us since the revolution.
More like America has been at war with Iran since 1953, when the CIA overthrew their popular democratically elected leader for oil profits. Learn some history. The 1979 revolution was payback after years of being under an American puppet leader.
Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
This is just designed to scare people (for whatever reason) into thinking war is more probable than it really is.
Oil companies would love for us to go to war with Iran, but the threat itself will do. Gasoline prices going through the roof lines their pockets, and they don't give a rat's as that it will destroy the already fragile recovery of a recession that was caused mostly by gasoline prices. $1.05 here when oil man Bush took office in 2000, $4.65 when the economy collapsed eight years later. That money that goes in the gas tank is money that doesn't go to the clothing store or restaraunt.
There are other people who would benefit from another collapse of the economy -- those who want to inhabit the White House or be elected to Congress. High gasoline prices are Obama's biggest threat right now, and America's as well.
Free Martian Whores!
People generally care more about their friends and neighbors and spouses and children than they do about nameless, faceless people from the other side of the globe. Americans care more about their troops being killed, and I'd wager that the Iraqi people care a lot more about neighbors killed as "collateral damage" than they do about some American soldiers being killed by a suicide bomber at some check point in another city. There's nothing wrong with that -- it's human nature.
except the US has now been at war for almost 11 years and most people are tired of it and the 5000 or so dead soldiers. there is close to 0 public support for another war
The Iraq war stared on March 20th and the Libyan War started on March 19th.
This can go one of four ways:
1) it happens now, in the hopes that it's over by the election
2) it happens shortly after Obama is re-elected
3) it never was going to happen - it's all a ruse to get the Republicans spitting crazy so that come election season, Obama can look like the reasonable voice on War (assuming Dr. Paul isn't the nominee)
4) Israel goes nuts at a random date and the US has to decide whether to light off WWIII.
I suggest erring on the side of not killing more brown children for political agendas.
My God, it's Full of Source!
OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
By creating the clock you have given more validity to the pro war meme currently being circulated in the republican debates and MSM, the fact that Israel just asked us for a "bunker buster" bomb is telling, and the fact they were forced to promise not to use it this year (due to elections?) is more telling.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/us-iran-nuclear-israel-usa-idUSBRE82717220120308
Israel uses the US as a proxy army, utilizing the power of AIPAC to further it's own goals through lobbying and manipulation of American politics, one need only watch a republican debate and see how the candidates stumble over each other is their pledge to support Israel, this has really gone far enough don't you think?
Israel has nukes and refuses to sign non-proliferation treaties, Iran has no nukes (yet) and no one in their right mind would think Iran would attack Israel if they did have a nuke, it would bring the World down on them and Israels retaliation would be swift.
Iran with nukes presents a different sort of problem, not one of using the nukes but one of political implications and Israeli paranoia is dragging the US into another "war" we can't afford.
Currently all 3 countries involved in this fiasco are gearing up for elections so what does that tell you about all the rhetoric?
Enough is enough.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
Iran has been at war with us since the revolution. Its time Americans started recognizing that fact and speak/act accordingly.
I hope you're posting that from your barracks, tough guy. Since you're so eager for us to "act accordingly" and all.
The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
Wow your ignorance of the Iranian people and culture is mind boggling, that you actually believe what you wrote is terrifying.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
Yeah we'll see about that.
Let's hope that when Israel attacks Iran, the U.S. just stands back and lets them work things out.
but I'm not that optimistic.
Not enough oil?!? Russia is the largest producer accounting for 13% of total world production. And by 1940's tanks do you mean the late 80's T80U or the 1990's T90?
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
Sadam was killing a hell of a lot of people, though, to keep control. And he was fond of torture - he'd torture people to death just for fun, and his followers seemed keen on it as well. So compared to the status quo ante, the ongoing civilian death count wasn't so much. Compared to the casualties in most wars, the civilian death count was nothing.
And, hey, it worked. Democracy in Iraq, Arab Spring, too early to say how it will all end but this democracy fad might just catch on.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
> except the US has now been at war for almost 11 years and most people
At first glance many people (here in US at least) are not aware we are at war. Take a look at most mainstream media and very little is mentioned about war activity in Afghanistan and Iraq. Although we have "pulled out" (actually replaced soldiers with contractors) some think we can then use those resources to start another war, which is probably the objective as it's election year.
mfwright@batnet.com
It might be your nature. It isn't mine. It isn't human nature. And there's everything wrong with it.
Hush now - don't go confusing him with facts. All he needs to know is that Iranians = A-rabs = Bad.
Tubal-Cain smokes the white owl.
TEHRAN (FNA)- The wife of Martyr Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan Behdast, who was assassinated by Mossad agents in Tehran in January, reiterated on Tuesday that her husband sought the annihilation of the Zionist regime wholeheartedly.
"Mostafa's ultimate goal was the annihilation of Israel," Fatemeh Bolouri Kashani told FNA on Tuesday.
Bolouri Kashani also underlined that her spouse loved any resistance figure in his life who was willing to fight the Zionist regime and supported the rights of the oppressed Palestinian nation.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
I doubt it. Sadly.
So you care as much about the old guy who just this second passed away (and another this second, and yet another this second) as you would (did?) about your own father passing?
Either your an emotionless psychopath, or you must spend every waking moment in mourning. The rest of us care more about people the closer we are to them. We love our immediate family more than our friends, our friends more than acquaintances, acquaintances more than friends of friends, friends of friends more than a random guy across town, a random guy across town more than a random guy across the country, a random guy across the country more than a random guy across the world, a random guy across the world more than a random guy from a century ago, and a random guy from a century ago more than a random guy from a millennium ago.
If you want to pretend to be a perfectly rational robot, aren't the deaths of the people killed during the sack of Babylon in the 16th century BC just as sad as those of the people killed in the recent midwest tornadoes? Of course, no actual human being would feel that way, but if it makes you feel special, go on pretending.
Right.
You already had me convinced when you had to capitalise "more" but you totally blew my mind when you said that it's totally true.
Totally foolish otherwise, bro. Totally didn't understand a single word before but I'm totally enlightened now. Totally thankful.
there is close to 0 public support for another war
Not true. Americans are sick of *some* wars; 75% of Americans support withdrawal from Afghanistan by Obama's timetable or earlier. But... 70% of Americans believe Iran already has nuclear weapons, and 58% of Americans say they support U.S. military attacks on Iran. The Young Turks: Can we stop a war with Iran?
5000 or so dead soldiers
6,300 U.S. soldiers killed, 46,000 U.S. soldiers wounded, estimated hundreds of thousands of civilian dead, and $3 trillion of public money given to "defense contractors".
And now Iran is being blamed for 9/11: U.S. District Court Rules Iran Behind 9/11 Attacks (December 23rd 2011)
How convenient. After 2001, 44% of Americans believed that the 9/11 hijackers were Iraqi, and 70% of Americans believed Saddam did 9/11. In fact, not a single one of the hijackers were Iraqi, and secularist Hussein and Islamist bin Laden were known to hate each other. It was all a lie. Even now, after the whole argument has been completely discredited time and again, including by the CIA, 41% of Americans still believe that Saddam Hussein was directly involved in 9/11. But now Iran did it, so we have to attack them.... omg..
I can't believe people are falling for this again...
It would have been funnier if it counted towards Dec. 21, 2012 rather than just midnight.
Faith is a willingness to accept something w/o complete proof and to act on it. Reason allows you to correct that faith.
Self destruct clocks are always stopped with 3 seconds to go.
Have gnu, will travel.
that's reserved for our favorite nation,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_favoured_nation#United_States
every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
I find it very amusing that you feel the need to attack me instead of simply accepting that not everyone is like you and that your inane generalisation is simply wrong. Clearly I'm the psychopath. In words I'm sure you'll understand "2/10 would chuckle again".
So you have no argument, then. You're just gonna stick with the story that yes, you do care just as much about people who died a thousand years ago as you would about your own wife, because "people are different, man!"
The simple truth is we're not that different. People experience the same general feelings everywhere. You just got up on a high horse, and can't figure out a way to get back down without losing face. So go ahead and laugh it off, if that's what you've got to do. But from personal experience, you grow more as a person when you admit (if only to yourself) that you were wrong.
People generally care more about their friends and neighbors and spouses and children than they do about their enemies.
Free Martian Whores!
So, by this metric, the sentient toaster invasion clock is at 20 minutes to midnight.
And who thought this was a reasonable metric?
Just another ignorant American.
Then it's time for you to grow again and judging by your behaviour you still have a lot of growing to do.
Don't misinterpret my apparent lack of arguments. It's merely a lack of interest in debating with you.
You obviously believe that your opinion is the gospel and people who disagree with you are mentally challenged.
I wonder why you feel the need to win a debate with someone who's mentally challenged. After all, you clearly have no issues.
Didn't we just learn this lesson?
LOL
Deleted
They are only negotiating the dates and times. Before or after the election.
Deleted
There have been stern warnings about war with Iran since about 2005. Every time we hear about how "All options are on the table" and similar threats. Some sanctions that Russia and China ignore are enacted, etc.
If there was going to be war on Iran it would have happened already. It hasn't. It won't.
If the clock never goes earlier than 15 till midnight, why don't they just scale it out to 60 minutes? That way a change from 10 minutes to midnight to 5 minutes to might midnight would instead be a change of 20 minutes (11:20 -> 11:40). That would be a much more noticeable difference!
At approximately a 50% chance, it's around noon.
That is a day clock for you.
Or, it can be 1 millisecond to midnight!! OMHFGAAAAHHH! If you only use the last 1.1 msec of the day.
bah.
Did they account for leap seconds? How about daylight savings time? Does the imminent war spring forward and fall back?
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
I've been telling people since the war in Iraq started that it's been about Iran all along. Establishing bases in Afghanistan and Iraq was just a stepping stone. Delaying major victories in both countries was to help stretch US presence until this juncture was reached.
That's what I would have thought. Until I started watching the republican primaries.
Except the only candidate that doesn't want to go to war with Iran is Ron Paul. As far as I can tell (from Australia) he is not really in the race.
unfortunately I have to conclude that America is not yet tired enough of war to even select a non war mongering republican candidate. :(
the saber rattling, the threats of war against Iran is because the globalists/banksters dont want Iran to have nuclear power, they want Iran to stay on the petroleum production treadmill so keep opec supplied with petroleum, If Iran builds nuclear power plants then they will rely less on petroleum for their power plants (electrical generation), i really doubt the news when it says iran wants to wipe Israel off the map i think it is propaganda.
Politics is Treachery, Religion is Brainwashing
English has a word with the same meaning: truce.
"and the US army isn't ready for it either"
It's had twenty-plus YEARS Middle Eastern combat experience, is finished with Iraq, and nation-state war is different from "nation building".
The lesson is not to build nations, but to defeat your opponents then sign a peace treaty (remember those???).
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
But now Iran did it, so we have to attack them.... omg..
Iran has always been responsible for 9/11. Stop spreading your crimethink.
The enemies of Democracy are
And, hey, it worked. Democracy in Iraq
Yes, I hear Sunni and Shia are getting pretty good at democratically killing each other there.
Arab Spring
The one that brought hardline Islamists to power in Tunisia and Egypt, and plunged Libya in a civil war (that's still going on - militia have started fighting it out between themselves now) that is most likely to also end up in an Islamist regime?
too early to say how it will all end but this democracy fad might just catch on.
It's catching on, alright. The only problem is that democracy does not equal freedom, equality and human rights. If the majority of the populace want back to Middle Ages, democracy lets them do just that.
At some point you have to ask: does it matter if an innocent person is torture-killed on the orders of a brutal dictator, or according to a democratically enacted law?
there is nothing democratic about the regime in Iran.
Quite the opposite. Iran is a classic example of tyranny of the majority. Kids "getting killed on the streets" are not one - they're just better at having their voice heard in the West, who can understand them better than the conservative rural folk.
Make no mistake, if Iran is attacked, you won't see their soldiers surrendering en masse. If anything, it will just give them more excuse to brutally suppress the few who'd still keep dissenting by that point once and for all, and the rest would rally around the present government for the lack of any other organizing force capable of resisting foreign aggression.
Secrecy is treason in a democracy. The people cannot help control the government if they have no trustworthy knowledge. Whoever controlled the U.S. government lied to start a war with Iraq. Now the evidence is that they are lying to start a war with Iran.
Another war will make us poor. There are fewer Jewish people in Israel than in the United States. Somehow they have enough political power to get the U.S. taxpayer to pay for the security of Israel.
The Bush and Cheney families had investments in weapons companies. Those in control hid their involvement.
close to 0 public support for another war
You should try skimming the comments on Fox.com sometime.
If you do what you always did, you get what you always got.
So, basically Iran just stumbled upon Wideband Delphi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wideband_Delphi and thought they'd give it a go.
If you do what you always did, you get what you always got.
foxnews.com that is. O_o
If you do what you always did, you get what you always got.
You completely missed the memo on ironic detachment. 90% of what passes for OMG over-reaction comes from bored (not frightened) Chicken Littles. "I'm bored. What should I do? I know, let's start a game of OMG! Tag, you're it."
The other 10% comes from an industrious soul with OCD paranoia who has misplaced his meds (if no two electrons can be distinguished, and an electron travels backwards and forward in time, Occam's razor decrees that there is only one very busy electron).
Clearly this group is targeting the rile factor, however insignificant the ignorant response.
I might actually give up Google for a search engine where I could search on queries such as "/OMG 911" or "/OMG nuclear" or "/OMG GM" or "/OMG paid to have sex". If you click "I'm feeling lucky" it comes back with an error page: "Code Blue: server hyperventilating". If you press your luck, it comes back with the actual query results.
The Doomsday clock is such a joke. Right now it's at 5 minutes to midnight, 7 minutes closer to midnight than at the Cuban Missile Crisis. How can anyone take this seriously?
In Capitalist US, the commerce controls the Government.
Wake me when Iranians butcher their Mullah slavemasters and burn their mosques.
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
Yeah, you're an idiot.
Not so much in regards to the fact that the iranian government is fucked up, but completely in regards to male-female interactions, and the iranian people in general.
And yes, I've actually been there.
And I suppose the stories about Saudi princes beating said immigrants is just the same as immigrants not being all that well like in the west. Except it isn't.
What about Kuwait? Liberated by the west, it ranks very high in GDP per person, that is because in Kuwait, only the natives are counted. Immigrants are not. Even legal immigrants who are needed to actually do the work that makes the country so rich. Palestinians? Kuwait has a lot of them but of course the Palestinians choose wrong with supporting Saddam and they are now treated by their fellow Muslims as scum...
But you are right, migration is not just to the west. A lot of Africans go to South Africa for jobs... where they are totally not hated by the South Africans (black) with regularly exploding violence on a scale and brutality not seen for not nearly long enough in the west.
In many ways, you add to my point. Yes, there are migration patterns to other parts of the world and ALL of them end up with worse results for the migrant then in the west. We WIN again, even if it is just because we suck less (which is not a way to win at all).
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
So you care as much about the old guy who just this second passed away (and another this second, and yet another this second) as you would (did?) about your own father passing?
If "caring for" means "not supporting the killing of/blowing to kingdom come in an airstrike", then yes, I do care about that man just as much as anyone else.
US intelligence
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/world/middleeast/us-agencies-see-no-move-by-iran-to-build-a-bomb.html
and Israeli intellence, first paragraph
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-iran-still-mulling-whether-to-build-nuclear-bomb-1.407866
Both saying Iran has not made any decision to make a bomb. And yes, I know you expected another angle :)
if someone bombed the oil platforms the government would collapse
Yes, and that "someone" would be a terrorist.
I'll also ask this: If Iran's program is peaceful, then there's no reason for them to limit access to UN inspectors
"If you're not doing anything wrong, you have nothing to hide"
The panel's first estimate puts the odds of war in the next twelve months at 48 percent, consistent with predictions market Intrade.com, which estimates a 40 percent chance of a U.S./Israeli strike by December 2012."
Every time we believe what we are told without fact, we create what we fear.
With that said, lets start acting like a 1st world country, and, the mayan calendar doesn't end, although this baktun was significant (?), it's not the end of the world, let's not make it so.
It's gotta be a zombie apocalypse. bright lights and thats it would suck.
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
I am sure that there are many other solipsists out there.
Is that 99% of the noise that absolutely positively the Dreaded Zionist Menace (tm) is going to bomb the peaceful peace loving Persians of peace are a) the same people who want to see Israel wiped off the map and b) have been promising us this every single day for the last 15 years.
Wow! A totally foreign and shocking concept to my Western mind! I am QUITE certain NONE of my ancestors have ever engaged in such a vile, deceitful tactic! You sir, have just blown my mind!
It's often the case that people, when given a chance at democracy, elect a dictator-for-life because that's what they know. But not always - and everyone deserves that chance.
The early days of American democracy were full of conflict and morally questionable positions. Perfection is not required here. Democracy in the Islamic world simply won't look like Western democracy, but that doesn't mean it won't work.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Except Iran isn't our "opponent." It's a country on the other side of the world that's minding its own business. They have done nothing to provoke or warrant our aggression. Bombing their oil platforms, thus ensuring chaos in their society while their population quite possibly starves to death unless they capitulate to their demands, is indeed terrorism. Bombing an airstrip or fortified position is one thing. These are civilian facilities run by innocent people.
I mean, what would you call it if were done with Al Qaeda suicide bombers or a truck bomb instead of U.S. bombers? It's terrorism, plain and simple, on an international level.