Facebook Adds 96 Million Shares, Will Privacy Get Worse After IPO?
AlistairCharlton writes "Facebook has made yet another amendment to its S-1 filing, adding a further 96 million shares, pushing its initial public offering up to a potential maximum of $18.4bn (£11.5bn). In what is the eighth amendment to its S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Facebook has also increased the number of shares allowed for over allotment, up from 50.6 million to 63.2 million." Facebook will have a lot of pressure to increase revenue after it goes public. jfruh writes in with a story about how that will impact their privacy policies. "There's been a steady drumbeat of panics over the past few years involving how Facebook uses the personal information you give it; nevertheless, someday you'll look back at 2012 as the golden age of Facebook privacy. That's because, once Facebook has its IPO, it'll come under huge pressure from the markets to extract more revenue from its business. And with display advertising not generating game-changing amounts of money, Facebook has only one valuable resource: your data, which is going to be monetized as hard as possible."
Both Facebook and Google share many business practices and monetizing practices. While Google had the unfortunate timing for their IPO (2004) after dot com bubble burst, the exact same thing could had been said about them. Many slashdotters, however, still believe that Google does the right thing.
For me the interesting thing is how similar these two companies actually are. Both companies base their revenue on advertisement and gathering user data, provide tons of open source contributions and are free for everyone to use.
What I cannot understand is why Google gets a free pass on this while slashdotters absolutely hate Facebook. Both Google and Facebook have done their mistakes, but only Facebook is constantly cried about. I can only guess it's because Facebook goes against slashdotters nerdy backgrounds. Gee, we have a place where every person can discuss, share their life the way they want to and be social.
It isn't the first time I've read how internet should be for geeks only and normal people not given access. And that right there shows some really horrible side of geeks. It's align the lines of hating gays because you can't stand someone being different from you. Yet geeks feel like everyone hates them for being different.
Maybe it's some traumatizing event from childhood or something, but after I realized this, I cannot think geeks as nothing more than the most hateful group of people towards people with other kind of thinking. This could also very well be the reasons why geeks are bullied - if you treat other like shit, you will be treated like shit. Be nice to them and they will be nice to you.
Facebook is still a young company. They have worked more on their grown rather than revenue by now, and it has worked very well for them. Unlike MySpace, I don't think Facebook will be going away anytime soon either. They have grown past that phase and are now the number one social network in every country. We used to have same kind of services in my country even back in 2000 - they're all now seriously in bad shape because Facebook took all the users.
I also don't see why Facebook would need to use any of this for privacy violation. Just like Google, their business depends on not giving out the information, but by establishing way for advertisers to use it via their platforms. Selling out info would kill them, and even more so than if Google did it. The information, users etc is the most single biggest asset they have. This is also why Google+ and Diaspora are losing heavily and will never amount to Facebook - they don't have the users, so no other users will come.
Working in investment industry, I would seriously suggest buying Facebook shares. It is, and will be, the internets social network. They will be heavily increasing their profits once they start working on it instead of growth. It will still also heavily grow when rest of the world gets online. Currently there are amount 800 million people (a very impressive number!), but there is room for over 6 billion more. And those won't be joining MySpace, Google+ or Diaspora, they will join Facebook because that's where everyone is.
Just my two cents,
John
Will it make privacy worse?
Yes.
And here's why:
Read the fine print of the IPO - it says FB "will do evil whenever it can".
Now if that is not a slap in the face of Google, I don't know what is.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
other than tracking you on the internet google uses all kinds of other data it buys from third parties to figure out who you are to target advertising
my father in law is getting acura ads non-stop in his gmail
he barely knows how to use a computer
yet he has a 9 year old acura and is shopping for a new car. but hasn't done it online. he gets brochures from the dealerships
only explanation is that google buys up auto registration/sale data, matches it up with your IP and internet subscriber data to target ads
Your mind is totally controlled
You have been stuffed into our mold
And you will do as you are told
Until the rights to you are sold
Frank Zappa
I fill my profile with lots of fake data (such as the wrong city and birthday). Or just leave it blank (don't list my workplace or career).
My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
Facebook has a deal with Bing, everything you upload gets copied to Bing. They don't necessarily redistribute it or make it searchable, but it's all stored away on Bing hard disks. Every word, every picture, everything.
Diablo III
... nobody talks about the solution.
I'm a pretty techie guy (embedded programmer by trade) and I don't use facebook. Nobody I know at work or my family uses facebook.
Well, not entirely true. My single-parent, out-of-work aunt and her kid do. They play a *lot* of farming ville. Of course, they also watch a lot of TV - "Sorry we can't come to the family picnic; my show is on tonight." I guess facebook will do okay. After all, money from dumb people is still money.
Facebook is not just a social network, it's consumer groupware. Compare it to television or telephone, not to Myspace and other previous offerings focusing solely on the social factor.
I expect the following:
- provides ticketing for events.
- a store for media content and app content.
- even a premium subscription model to remove ads (hi Slashdot!).
Facebook Adds 96 Million Shares, Will Privacy Get Worse After IPO?
Another question I've been mulling over lately is: will Kim Kardashian become less private now that she's dating Kanye West?
I'm pretty interested in how they're going to try to monetize mobile after spending a ton of money on Instagram and other mobile companies. Finishing up my own mobile app, I decided to not put ads in part because Facebook and Google don't have them on mobile, but mostly because the interface is already so limited and I didn't want it to be incredibly frustrated trying to use it without accidentally click ads all the time.
I think they'll have a very difficult time creating a mobile app with ads which doesn't completely alienate their user base.
Step 1: Change the subject: Let's not discuss X, let's discuss Y instead!
Step 2: Play the 'victim.' - waaa, those evil privacy advocates are ruining teh internetz!
Step 3: Point the finger - 'we may be bad, but we're not as bad as *gasp* Google!
Step 4: If all else fails, insult the audience - "This could also very well be the reasons why geeks are bullied - if you treat other like shit, you will be treated like shit."
Well played, sir, well played...
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
The interwebs is filled with stories, articles and opinions about why getting in on the Facebook IPO is such a bad idea. I can't find a single piece that argues for buying FB shares now (if you do, can you please share?). So I'm wondering, if there is such an overwhelming negativity against the shares, what's driving this demand up and making fb add more shares?! brokerage firms are offering pre-orders for pre-screened buyers with a minimum number of orders and still are not guaranteeing issuance of shares. If so many people are saying don't do it, who are all the people who are doing it, and why? I find it hard to believe that so many people are actually ignoring the news and willing to put money down - surely there's something we're missing?
what's the pro argument for fb shares?
My sig has been answered.
Almost all of my profile data is fake, much of it obviously ludicrous (my college is right, my degree in "Bible Sexuality" not so much, my occupation in the "Salt Mines" is factually incorrect but metaphorically true...). The only profile picture I've ever had that was actually a photograph of me was when I was 6 years old (40-odd years ago). There are no photos tagged of me.
I don't really understand how they will plan to make money off this.
Currently there are amount 800 million people (a very impressive number!), but there is room for over 6 billion more. And those won't be joining MySpace, Google+ or Diaspora, they will join Facebook because that's where everyone is.
Last time I checked 800 million is way less than 6 billion (about 13% of 6 billion), which kind of contradicts the statement that 'that's where everyone is'
Working in investment industry, I ...
Oh is that where the fuzzy math comes from?
Before I reach for my wallet, could mister financial industry explain how facebook's revenue (around 1bilion) justifies the current valuation of 100 billion? Short of making every single living person on the planet a facebook member and then quadrupling their net income per user (currently at about $1) I don't see how any investment made now will break even in the next 5 years.
Here is one view to think about:
âoeWe want to dump a lot of money into Facebook,â one says, citing peersâ(TM) activity on the site as evidence of its longevity. âoeYouâ(TM)re on Facebook half your day, if not more. Itâ(TM)s a necessity. Itâ(TM)s water, itâ(TM)s death and now itâ(TM)s Facebook.â
People have high hopes for Facebook.
Palm trees and 8
I am personally going to leave Facebook after the IPO; it's the safest way to leave it. However, the data that they already have from my account will still be accessible by them for a long while.
It's rather agitating that they don't offer shares to Facebook users first since they're going to be the ones shafted if anything happens. And I am certain that several wouldn't mind investing in protecting the online environment.
By increasing the size of the IPO, they are offering closer to 15% of the shares, rather than 10%.
At a price of $34/share, the market cap will be north of $120 billion, and the price on Day 1 could spike much higher than that, when all the rubes jump into the secondary market.
Facebook may never again have a market capitalization greater than it will on its first day of trading.
Does anyone think Facebook's privacy will be improved by a massive infusion of investment?
Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
Worldwide ad spending. The only thing they can sell right now is ... you. But the buyers are spending less than a trillion worldwide annually. That's the total market. Their annual revenue is already about 4B. Realistically, they should be able to grab no more than about double their attention share, and what is that, maybe 5% (generously). That puts about a 25x growth cap on facebook, and assumes that they successfully reach basically everyone who ever sees advertising.
Personally I'll be shocked if they can grow revenue 10x.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
Facebook is caught between a rock and a hard place with regard to user privacy. They already take a lot of flack from users who don't like what they perceive as Facebook's lax privacy protection. Facebook can't simply dilute it further without risking a flood of protest from its users. It can't afford that. That's not to mention the various state and federal privacy regulations already in place that will also constrain them.
Oh, and don't count out Google+ as competition just yet. Google isn't going to declare defeat in the social media space any time soon. They recently completely revamped the Google+ interface and have shown that they're in it for the long haul. They will be waiting for Zuckerberg & Co. to stumble and give users an excuse to jump ship. I suspect they won't have to wait long.
Of course, the investors will be howling for Facebook to bring in the numbers, especially now that GM has announced yesterday that they are cancelling all of their advertising on FB due to its lack of effectiveness. You can bet that move has caught the attention of every other large advertiser. Facebook is in trouble. They have very little maneuverability to enhance their revenue stream and a lot of pressure to do so. Something's got to give and I predict it will not be pretty for either FB's bottom line or their stock price.
Things will get much, much better. They are already well into the negatives for anything privacy related, so if they go further the integer will wrap and they'll find themselves well into the positives. This was a brilliant move by Facebook and should make the users very happy. Users will just have to hope they're using 32 bit integers instead of 64 or it could take a while longer.
I'm sure there's a good chance there's 96million people (aka shareholders) that don't give a d*mn about your privacy. Playing with number of a popl. of 6billion, that's 2% of the world's population.
If loss of privacy == cash, then I can easily see 2% of the population greedy enough to take advantage of it.
Ah, nevermind. Who cares about FB anyway.
I bet you will be seeing more of their so called "accidental releases" of personal data in spite of the members privacy settings.
If I had bought 10% of Facebook at the start, I expect to own 10% no matter how many shares are issued. Where are these shares coming from, MZ's own portion?
When a company is as successful as FaceBook, it can sometimes be hard to imagine how they could fail. But an IPO suggests at least one possible scenario: To "maximize shareholder return," as US public corporations are required by law to do (caveat: IANAL), they start charging for something. This pisses everybody off, but most people go along with it at first because there's no alternative. Then they start charging for a bunch of things. They they start charging for everything. And more and more people get pissed off, until some tipping point is reaches, and suddenly everybody switches to some free alternative. The end.
So facebook take you info sells, then turns around become publice so stupid people will buy stock in a company who just screwed its user over on many levels. Makes sense. right. want to get a better price on th ipo stocks. Concince user to stop using faebook for a period of time loss in acces loss in data lower the ipo may go.
Did slashdot recently connect firehose to the 'inflammatory' category feed on IT World? I've stopped reading.
OK, for a nice summary analysis of Fadbook, have a look here: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/worlds-first-phenomenally-forensic-facebook-analysis-what-you-need-you-invest-pt-1
Now, for me its pretty simple:
1. 1 billion users, valued at 100 USD per user is absurd. I don't see them being able to monetize traffic better than Google does, especially international. They are locked out of China too, so forget that market growth. FB is way too faddish. You will see major attrition over time without the addition of real services that people need. Instagram is a perfect example of what to expect of the company, just see what happens to that service over the next 2 years.
2. 25X revenues is absurd. That's a PE multiple not a REVENUE multiple. ~500X PE is not just overvalued, its extremely overvalued and even comical. I don't see the plan to get the growth needed to justify this valuation.
3. Insiders selling lots of shares, and increasing the number up to IPO date. Wow, this is a pretty good clue.......
Real men don't need signitures!!!
Wow, first time poster and you managed to get this giant diatribe about what a great investment facebook is posted in a matter of seconds. Impressive, astroturfer, impressive.
And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for you damned kids..
GM is pulling out their advertising campaign on FB, because it doesn't work.
A pizza joint in New Orleans spent 200+ USD for each new customer. How many pizzas does that person have to buy?
Advertising is lame and doesn't work. Even less so in a "social context". The problem is the world is saturated with advertising and people are just fucking fed up with hearing lies disguised in funny/sweet/cute/annoying/artistic/dumb/weird presentations. The last thing they need is to hear that same lame crap from their "friends", imaginary or real.
Not that anyone will ever see this, being posted at a the end of a gazillion other posts.
I've never really understood why it is felt that the stock market/share price has such a direct influence on a business' behaviour. The market valuation of a company should make almost no difference in the day to day running of the business except in the most extreme cases. If Widget Inc. is trading for 1 billion on Monday and 2 billion on Tuesday, that just means a bunch of people think it is worth that much, but it has no impact on the business practices other than indirectly. If it is "under priced" investors have incentive to buy; if "over priced", incentive to sell, but why should the people running the company care who owns the shares or how much they are worth?
I suppose if the share owners all think the company is being run poorly they (through the board) can make changes in management, but it seems like this "distance" between shareholders and management would moderate knee-jerk reactions to fluctuations in market valuation.
Are the pundits overstating the influence the market has on business practices? Has the influence grown just because the media has repeatedly said that the link is strong? Did "the market" historically have the same effect on business practices? Has regulatory or other changes impacted this relationship over the years?
Maybe I should take an economics degree.
There, someone HAD to say what we've all been thinking for some time now.
Facebook will be worth as much as MySpace in 3...2...1...
Just sayin'
This Facebook IPO is a farce... this company is over-valued by many times. What a joke. Full analysis: http://www.singledudetravel.com/2012/05/why-facebook-isnt-worth-100-billion-or-anything-close-to-it/