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Sea Level Rise Can't Be Stopped

riverat1 writes "Sea level rise won't stop for several hundred years even if we reverse global warming, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. As warmer water is mixed down into the oceans, it causes thermal expansion of the water. Under the best emissions scenario, the expected rise is 14.2 cm by 2100; under the worst, 32.2 cm from thermal expansion alone. Any water pumped from aquifers or glacial/ice sheet melt is added to that."

45 of 521 comments (clear)

  1. Bye Florida! by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

    Serves you right. You let all those New Yorkers in and bad things happen....

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    1. Re:Bye Florida! by hairyfeet · · Score: 4, Interesting

      They won't have any problem, same as the armadillos that USED to live in TX went through AR and are halfway through OK now. As a certain line from a movie went "life finds a way" and while we here in North Central AR may be roasting under 104F temps the armadillos just packed up and moved north. At the current rate I expect Canucks to be dodging armadillos in about a decade.

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      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    2. Re:Bye Florida! by jd · · Score: 4, Insightful

      32.2cm is the mean sea level rise. If you picture the ocean as one gigantic seesaw, it's how much the midpoint rises by, not the endpoints. The lever on either side of this midpoint is around 3200 km long. I will leave you to figure out the total area of any given slice your side of the midpoint - and what will happen to that during spring tide. Sure, low tide might actually be lower as a result, but I'm thinking that any land much below 32m below current sea levels will be in real trouble.

      That's ignoring the ocean currents. Those help take hot water away from the Gulf of Mexico, so lose/weaken them and you get longer, more severe hurricanes.

      And this is still ignoring the fact that much of the SE is reclaimed swamp. Water table shoots up, even if only 32cm, and you WILL lose houses nominally on dry land because they're not designed for that. You'll also lose your storm drains and sewage systems, so the survivors can expect massive outbreaks of cholera. If there are any survivors - the road system there basically uses sand as a foundation, so you WILL lose most of your road network and that means no possibility of evacuation when the hurricanes arrive. New Orleans had substantially evacuated before Katrina, you won't be able to. With South Carolina in the same boat - literally, there also will be far fewer places to evacuate to.

      By 2112, everything from Florida to the middle of North Carolina will be an uninhabited, uninhabitable lost land, barren of all life. Nothing will survive there.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    3. Re:Bye Florida! by kelemvor4 · · Score: 3, Funny

      meh.. I live in Florida. About a mile from the Gulf of Mexico. 588cm above sea level. The expensive beach house owners might have to worry but much of FL will be just fine. Who knows, maybe someday my house will become a beach house!

    4. Re:Bye Florida! by catchblue22 · · Score: 5, Informative

      From the parent post

      Well, we only have 88 years to deal with a foot rise in water. Damn, that's devastating, we'd better get right to work.

      From the summary

      ...32.2 cm from thermal expansion alone...

      I know it is easier to ignore reality, but I think the parent poster has gotten so used to ignoring science that he ignores the clear language in the article summary. Here is a fact: Most sea level rise will come in the end from melting glaciers. And the melting is accelerating.

      So the "twenty feet by 2100" thing is gone now then is it Mr. Gore, cause, gosh, that sure sold a lot of movies books and carbon taxes.

      Except that Gore didn't actually say twenty feet by 2100 in his movie. Here is a link to the transcript (pdf) of An Inconvenient Truth. I believe the passage that is often referred to occurs when Gore shows the maps of water inundated coast lines. Here is the transcript of that part of the movie:

      If Greenland broke up and melted, or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica broke up and melted, this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida. This is what would happen in the San Francisco Bay. A lot of people live in these areas. The Netherlands, the low-countries: absolutely devastating.

      The above statement is basically true. If you broke up the entire Greenland ice sheet, the rise in sea level would be catastrophic. Mr. Gore does not say this will happen in the next 100 years. It is a conditional statement. If something happens, then something else will happen. The time scale is not certain, though given recent trends in melting, three feet by 2100 is not unlikely. A basic search of recent literature will support this.

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    5. Re:Bye Florida! by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Meanwhile NC recently banned their civil engineers from considering the impact of any rise in sea levels due to AGW, they insist that infrastructure planning must only use the historical sea level records for forcasting future sea levels.

      As for TFA, the phenomena of thermal inertia has been understood for decades (it's why the hottest weather occurs a month or two AFTER the summer solctice, and is also the origin of the "pluto is warming" canard). More and better data have added weight to that knowledge and more finely tuned our accounting of what mechanisim is responsible for what portion of the changes (such as the recent stories about the draining of aquifiers contributing to the rise). All this is because the IPCC avoids using data that is less that 2yrs old in it's reports, they're currently approaching the cut off date for new data to be added to the 2014 reports so you can expect to see these kind of stories over the next month or so. The next two years will be spent arguing over the expected 100k or so individual review critisisims of the draft reports.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    6. Re:Bye Florida! by catchblue22 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The above statement is basically true. If you broke up the entire Greenland ice sheet, the rise in sea level would be catastrophic. Mr. Gore does not say this will happen in the next 100 years. It is a conditional statement. If something happens, then something else will happen. The time scale is not certain, though given recent trends in melting, three feet by 2100 is not unlikely. A basic search of recent literature will support this.

      A perfect example of how to be misleading without actually lying.

      As opposed to the original parent post I responded to:

      So the "twenty feet by 2100" thing is gone now then is it Mr. Gore, cause, gosh, that sure sold a lot of movies books and carbon taxes.

      Which is an example of being misleading while actually lying

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
  2. Bad news unless you are in North Carolina by Jeff1946 · · Score: 5, Funny

    It will be ok in North Carolina since their legislature said you can only use linear extrapolations of sea level rise to plan building in coastal areas. Guess they didn't get beyond simple algebra in school (no quadratic equations etc).

    1. Re:Bad news unless you are in North Carolina by olsmeister · · Score: 5, Informative

      Link for anyone that didn't hear about this.

    2. Re:Bad news unless you are in North Carolina by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 5, Funny

      Algebra? That sounds Arabic. Must be a terrorist training camp. Shut it down!

      I heard they were working on weapons of math destruction!

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    3. Re:Bad news unless you are in North Carolina by Artifakt · · Score: 3, Funny

      We don't need you Liberals telling us where Al Gore ithms got their start, you leftist hippy!
      (And if you're not sure if I'm joking either, then God bless you))

      --
      Who is John Cabal?
    4. Re:Bad news unless you are in North Carolina by Samantha+Wright · · Score: 5, Funny

      You don't understand; it's a cultural exchange program! They just want to integrate!

      --
      Bio questions? Ask me to start a Q&A journal. Computer analogies available for most topics!
  3. Then wtf am I doing driving this Prius?!? by crazyjj · · Score: 5, Funny

    Should have known better than to try to save that ungrateful environment. I'm buying an SUV.

    Suck my balls, you lying hippies!

    --
    What political party do you join when you don't like Bible-thumpers *or* hippies?
  4. Overall rise by zrbyte · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Any water pumped from aquifers or glacial/ice sheet melt is added to that.

    How big is the effect of thermal expansion in comparison to melting of ice? How much would be the additional rise in the worst case scenario?

    1. Re:Overall rise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      If the entirety of the Greenland ice sheet melted, over twenty feet of rise. There's a heckuva lot of ice sitting up on top of Greenland.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet

  5. Re:Nothing to worry about by Nick+Fel · · Score: 5, Funny

    Screw Jesus. I want Noah. Praise be Noah!

  6. Re:It's briefly touched upon in TFA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Yes, this: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

    But that map makes even a 60m rise seem not bad at all.

  7. remove excessive CO2? by pak9rabid · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This may be a stupid question, but isn't there a way to collect massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, compress the carbon into some sort of solid composite, and store it somewhere where it's land-locked (similar to how trees store carbon in wood)?

    1. Re:remove excessive CO2? by ethergear · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Beyond growing wood or some other plant matter, not really.

    2. Re:remove excessive CO2? by slew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Removing the CO2 is damn near impractical. However, even if we did it, it wouldn't be enough.

      Any warming (should it exist) eventually is likely to cause two other effects...
      1. an increase in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (which is currently responsible for about 50% of the greenhouse effect compared to 20% for CO2).
      2. an increase in methane clathrate melting in the permafrost and ocean releasing large quantities of methane into our atmosphere. Methane is ~70x a potent a greenhouse gas as CO2 (but currently only accounts for about 7% of greenhouse effect)

      Many speculate that if warming actually happens, these two effects could effectively cause run-away global warming. That's why people are thinking about how to block the heating from the sun (e.g., spraying particles in the air), not just sequestering carbon or just living with the consequences of warming. It's probably too late to just think about CO2. That ship has probably sailed...

    3. Re:remove excessive CO2? by wierd_w · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I have actually thought about this.

      Take something like kudzu. Evil vine that ate the south. It grows over a foot PER DAY.

      Ok, plant it on an enclosed, circular growing area, with a slow moving, automated cutting system that continually dead-heads the vines, and keeps them inside. The cut off cruft is put into a hermitically sealed solar sintering system with sand, and heated to vitrefaction.

      Carbon rich black glass is produced. The stuff would be more geologically stable than coal.

      Slow, but could be nearly completely automated. Done on a large scale, you could remove tons of carbon from the atmosphere daily in rainy tropical areas.

    4. Re:remove excessive CO2? by Ichijo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      At 468 passenger-mpg, people would take trains more often if the market failure were fixed by adding the external cost of carbon to the price of fuel. A demand curve shows how price affects demand.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  8. Re:It's briefly touched upon in TFA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I know, I never liked Florida either.

  9. Re:Not too bad? by afeeney · · Score: 4, Informative

    Well, for one, in the US alone, more than half the population lives in a coastal area.

    Even if just 10 percent are directly affected, that's still a large number of people.

    In the US, can you imagine all the lawsuits and politics about how to move people, does the government have the right to do it, does the government have the obligation to do it, and who is going to pay for it?

    For countries like Indonesia that are mostly islands, or in countries or areas that are largely below sea level, this could result in a major loss of housing and usable land.

    Anything that changes ocean patterns could affect shipping and fishing, both of which would be major blows to the global and regional economies. If we lose major fish populations, that will increase food prices, and if shipping becomes riskier, that will affect the price of virtually everything.

    It's a lot more than avoiding getting wet.

  10. Re:Sell! by KhabaLox · · Score: 4, Funny

    32cm is like, over 12 inches. That's gonna be noticeable.

    Somewhere in there is a "Your Mom" joke, straining against the seams to get out.

    --
    Ceci n'est pas un sig.
  11. Re:The sky is falling... by MickyTheIdiot · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's a poorly understood fact that any unwanted facts can simply go "poof" if you scream LIBURAL LIBURAL LIBURAL over and over.

  12. Re:The sky is falling... by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Because, of course, the laws of nature obey your political ideology.

    Here's news, moron, the Universe doesn't give a fuck about Liberal vs. Conservative, Socialist vs. Capitalist. It does not fucking care. If pumping millions of years of sequestered CO2 into the atmosphere in the space of two centuries is going to cause serious climactic changes, it is absolutely fucking irrelevant who you fucking vote for, or whether you masturbate to Vladimir Lenin or Ayn Rand.

    Fucking hell, you ideological fanatics are a tiresome, mentally handicapped lot. Don't like evolution because you think it falsifies your religion. Don't like acid rain or climate change because it means there are consequences to wide-scale and uncontrolled industrial activity. Don't like regulations because it kills your particular get-rich-quick-while-fucking-the-economy scheme.

    Is there any part of you at all that isn't a selfish, greedy piece of stupidity? Is there any part of you that gives the least little fuck for anyone other than yourself? Or are you really the vile repugnant sociopathic troll you appear?

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  13. Good news... by mevets · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now that there is nothing we can do about it, the shills can stop pretending it isnâ(TM)t happening.
    Already, Exxon has stated the obvious - burning fossil fuels is warming the planet by increasing the co2 level; however had to mute it with a statement that we can handle the change.
    I suppose a whiff of honesty is better than before.

  14. Re:Sell! by ackthpt · · Score: 5, Funny

    Time to unload all that beachfront property. 32cm is like, over 12 inches. That's gonna be noticeable.

    A-ha! I own the property just behind yours! I'm that much closer to having beachfront property!

    I once opened a fortune cookie to read: You'll make your home in the mountains and by the sea.

    I didn't realize it meant at the same time.

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  15. Re:Yes we knew this by Hentes · · Score: 4, Informative

    No, this paper is a theory. Observation of sea level rise is evidence.

  16. Re:Nothing to worry about by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    What if Jesus sent you scientists warning you what you were doing was bad?

    --
    People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
  17. Re:But then there's the laws of physics by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Informative
    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  18. Listen and understand. by feepness · · Score: 4, Funny

    That global warming is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until your tootsies are completely soaked.

  19. pshaw! by Thud457 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Something tells me that 32.2cm won't affect all of Florida.

    It's call tidal surge. And increased atmospheric energy leading to more frequent and more powerful hurricanes.
    Florida's not going to be a very hospitable place to live or grow crops if large parts of it are under saltwater frequently.


    Anyhow, screw future generations, I've got mine. They can just adapt to the new normal, they'll never miss what they never had in the first place.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    1. Re:pshaw! by siddesu · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There is no need for more hurricanes, getting the same number, but stronger and with more rain is more than enough. And this is already happening.

    2. Re:pshaw! by siddesu · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Unless the US recession continues indefinitely, this will change.

    3. Re:pshaw! by TapeCutter · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'm not a climatologist either but I have been interested in it for at least 30yrs. Having said that, wtf does the "MMGW" acronymn stand for?

      The only "theory" I know of concerning storms other than the obvious more heat == more turbulance is that the N. Hemisphere jet stream will ocillate more and the ocillations will move slower. This will increase the likeleyhood of Atlanitic hurricanes being "killed" by the sheraing of the jet stream, but on a global scale the monsoon rains will increase and the sub-tropic deserts will expand due to the more intense Hadley cells (Hadley cells = convection currents on either side of the equator that pump moist air up over the tropics where it dumps the moisture as rain after which the dry dry air falls down on the sub-tropical deserts). In other words heat will increase the amount of water traveling through the hydrological cycle, this is already happening as evidenced by the atmosphere already holding 4% more water vapour than it did 40yrs ago. Note also that the increase in water vapour is more evidence of a warmer planet since the atmosphere is basically chemically staurated with H20 and the only way to increase it is to raise either the temprature or the pressure (and I don't think gravity is any stronger than it was in the 70's).

      So yeah, to a certain extent the jury is still out on storms. It's pretty certain we will get more floods/snow and more droughts/heatwaves but it won't necassarily comes via hurricanes and blizzards.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  20. Re:Not too bad? by ackthpt · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but 14.2cm in 80 years doesn't exactly seem so bad (or even 32.2cm for that matter). Surely cities that are going to be effected will have ample time to relocate those in "danger".

    Too right. Let's move them into the last Indian reservations.

    Exactly where would you propose we move tens of millions of people? Not only Florida and low areas of the Eastern Seaboard, but gulf coast and low lands of Texas, right up to Houston are at risk.

    Walt Kelly's Pogo -- We have met the enemy and he is us.

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  21. Re:Not too bad? by Hentes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The Netherlands seem to be doing just fine below sea level. It might cause some economic harm, but it's not going to be a tragedy. Also, most low-lying islands are coral islands that follow sea level.

  22. Re:Not too bad? by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Tides in South Carolina routinely affect land 100 MILES inland. Just because 'you' are high and dry doesn't mean it's not a pressing national issue.

    --
    People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
  23. Re:RTFS - 14-32cm only for thermal expansion by Beardo+the+Bearded · · Score: 3, Informative

    Nope, it is densest at 4C. I know this from spending my summers swimming in 4C water. The thermoclines set up, you get a bottom of near-freezing water, and the visibility is spectacular.

    --

    ---
    ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
  24. Re:It's briefly touched upon in TFA by uniquename72 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I never get this kind of map. If you take their logic, Netherlands should already be flooded. As far as I can see from my window, it isn't.

    Higher sealevel just means building some infrastructure against flooding.

    You need a decent government for that. In the U.S., we knew for decades that much of New Orleans was going to be underwater if a decent hurricane hit it (I first learned about it in college in 1992). Nothing of substance was done.

  25. Re:Not too bad? by Genda · · Score: 4, Informative

    Here's a quick inventory of problems to cope with.

    Florida has a maximum land height of 42 feet. A three foot rise in see level, plus shore erosion due to larger and more frequent storms could reduce Florida to a stub of the current state with central islands where the everglades are now.

    Expanded erosion of barrier island and sand dunes along the gulf and eastern seaboard will eliminate thousands of square miles of existing shoreline, destroying some of the most valuable property in the country.

    Much of the Mississippi delta and most of Louisiana will simply go away (a great deal of which is already below sea level due to subsidence from poor river engineering by the Army Corp of Engineers.)

    The West Coast won't pass unscathed, because towns along the bays in both southern and northern California, will suffer significant land loss.

    The simple fact is that the big cities of the world are virtually all coastal cities and as such will be seriously impacted. The amount of land shared be people and critters will shrink a couple percent (large coastal plains will be inundated... kiss Bangladesh and a number of small islands in the South Pacific goodbye.)

    You bet we can engineer around it. Move cities slowly back. Build higher dikes and levees. Abandon places that are hopeless. Its just one more cost, and significant cost to consider as we continue to spew greenhouse gas into the air.

  26. Re:RTFS - 14-32cm only for thermal expansion by styrotech · · Score: 3, Insightful
  27. Re:Not too bad? by catchblue22 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The Netherlands seem to be doing just fine below sea level. It might cause some economic harm, but it's not going to be a tragedy. Also, most low-lying islands are coral islands that follow sea level.

    Do you have a clue how expensive the water management system in the Netherlands has been? Do you realize that the Netherlands is tiny compared with the areas under threat from sea level rise in the US alone? Hell, it's tiny even compared with Florida. Do you realize that duplicating the Dutch diking system for American coastal areas would likely bankrupt the country? Not to mention how future sea level rise will make it even more difficult for even the Netherlands to maintain the integrity of their diking system.

    --
    This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)