Slashdot Mirror
Sea Level Rise Can't Be Stopped
riverat1 writes "Sea level rise won't stop for several hundred years even if we reverse global warming, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. As warmer water is mixed down into the oceans, it causes thermal expansion of the water. Under the best emissions scenario, the expected rise is 14.2 cm by 2100; under the worst, 32.2 cm from thermal expansion alone. Any water pumped from aquifers or glacial/ice sheet melt is added to that."
Serves you right. You let all those New Yorkers in and bad things happen....
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
It will be ok in North Carolina since their legislature said you can only use linear extrapolations of sea level rise to plan building in coastal areas. Guess they didn't get beyond simple algebra in school (no quadratic equations etc).
Should have known better than to try to save that ungrateful environment. I'm buying an SUV.
Suck my balls, you lying hippies!
What political party do you join when you don't like Bible-thumpers *or* hippies?
Time to unload all that beachfront property. 32cm is like, over 12 inches. That's gonna be noticeable.
Any water pumped from aquifers or glacial/ice sheet melt is added to that.
How big is the effect of thermal expansion in comparison to melting of ice? How much would be the additional rise in the worst case scenario?
Screw Jesus. I want Noah. Praise be Noah!
I really thought our cunning plan of exporting our coal consumption to Asia was going to work. I mean, nothing that happens over there is in the Environment, right?
This paper is just further evidence that we've already released enough CO2 to continue the warming trend. Even if all humans disappeared, like one of those History Channel Life After People episodes, the globe would continue to warm towards a non-ice age state.
My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
That coastal property I bought in Arkansas for 48 BTC is going up uP UP!!! My investments own.
Yes, this: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/
But that map makes even a 60m rise seem not bad at all.
This may be a stupid question, but isn't there a way to collect massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, compress the carbon into some sort of solid composite, and store it somewhere where it's land-locked (similar to how trees store carbon in wood)?
I know, I never liked Florida either.
Well, for one, in the US alone, more than half the population lives in a coastal area.
Even if just 10 percent are directly affected, that's still a large number of people.
In the US, can you imagine all the lawsuits and politics about how to move people, does the government have the right to do it, does the government have the obligation to do it, and who is going to pay for it?
For countries like Indonesia that are mostly islands, or in countries or areas that are largely below sea level, this could result in a major loss of housing and usable land.
Anything that changes ocean patterns could affect shipping and fishing, both of which would be major blows to the global and regional economies. If we lose major fish populations, that will increase food prices, and if shipping becomes riskier, that will affect the price of virtually everything.
It's a lot more than avoiding getting wet.
It's a poorly understood fact that any unwanted facts can simply go "poof" if you scream LIBURAL LIBURAL LIBURAL over and over.
creates even more CO2 with our current energy generation
Because, of course, the laws of nature obey your political ideology.
Here's news, moron, the Universe doesn't give a fuck about Liberal vs. Conservative, Socialist vs. Capitalist. It does not fucking care. If pumping millions of years of sequestered CO2 into the atmosphere in the space of two centuries is going to cause serious climactic changes, it is absolutely fucking irrelevant who you fucking vote for, or whether you masturbate to Vladimir Lenin or Ayn Rand.
Fucking hell, you ideological fanatics are a tiresome, mentally handicapped lot. Don't like evolution because you think it falsifies your religion. Don't like acid rain or climate change because it means there are consequences to wide-scale and uncontrolled industrial activity. Don't like regulations because it kills your particular get-rich-quick-while-fucking-the-economy scheme.
Is there any part of you at all that isn't a selfish, greedy piece of stupidity? Is there any part of you that gives the least little fuck for anyone other than yourself? Or are you really the vile repugnant sociopathic troll you appear?
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Now that there is nothing we can do about it, the shills can stop pretending it isnâ(TM)t happening.
Already, Exxon has stated the obvious - burning fossil fuels is warming the planet by increasing the co2 level; however had to mute it with a statement that we can handle the change.
I suppose a whiff of honesty is better than before.
What if Jesus sent you scientists warning you what you were doing was bad?
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_expansion#Expansion_in_liquids
Translation: You're a fucking idiot.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Or sea level rise from magic. Or because Gaia hates George Bush.
That global warming is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until your tootsies are completely soaked.
But when I think of climate change, I think of longer periods of temperatures that are outside what a human can really aclimate to, and food can really be produced in. For instance, daytime temperatures that approach or go over 100F during the day and don't get under 80F at night. In Europe we are seeing another winter with temperatures staying at freezing for a continuous period. This is a concern because if we can't produce food, we can't survive. Look at the desertification of Africa. Look at the fight over water going on now in Texas and California. There are going to be some things that are just going to involving restructuring, insurance, and large writeoffs. This will be over and forgotten each generation, like the recurring banking crisis that hits us every 20-30 years. The other, like weather and temperature changes, are not going to be so easily fixed.
"She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
Something tells me that 32.2cm won't affect all of Florida.
It's call tidal surge. And increased atmospheric energy leading to more frequent and more powerful hurricanes.
Florida's not going to be a very hospitable place to live or grow crops if large parts of it are under saltwater frequently.
Anyhow, screw future generations, I've got mine. They can just adapt to the new normal, they'll never miss what they never had in the first place.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but 14.2cm in 80 years doesn't exactly seem so bad (or even 32.2cm for that matter). Surely cities that are going to be effected will have ample time to relocate those in "danger".
Too right. Let's move them into the last Indian reservations.
Exactly where would you propose we move tens of millions of people? Not only Florida and low areas of the Eastern Seaboard, but gulf coast and low lands of Texas, right up to Houston are at risk.
Walt Kelly's Pogo -- We have met the enemy and he is us.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
The Netherlands seem to be doing just fine below sea level. It might cause some economic harm, but it's not going to be a tragedy. Also, most low-lying islands are coral islands that follow sea level.
Particularly in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. Sounds like a good thing to me.
one of the Beetles died that way, jumping off a pier at low tide in a area with unusually low, low tides.
If you are referring to the band The Beatles, then no current or former member of the Beatles has ever died jumping off a pier into low tide. Stuart Stutcliffe died of a brain hemorrhage (not resulting from diving off a pier), George Harrison died of cancer, John Lennon was shot to death, Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr, and Pete Best are all still alive.
"But this one goes to 11!"
well at least it would do something to the economy unlike our current politicians....
-Noc
And this prediction is for a 1 inch rise a decade.
The panic, I'm missing it.
It's is wildly unlikely someone will drown because they were caught unaware the water rose a meter over a century.
But it's quite highly likely that Florida will be declaring more and more natural disasters with greater and greater frequency since storms that now have an added foot, 2 feet or meter to build on are increasingly destructive.
And YOU will be paying for that since it's a 'national' emergency.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
Tides in South Carolina routinely affect land 100 MILES inland. Just because 'you' are high and dry doesn't mean it's not a pressing national issue.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
Who doesn't?
But that map makes even a 60m rise seem not bad at all.
Seriously? 60m puts the states of Florida and Delaware underwater, half of Maryland and New Jersey, and major cities including Houston, New Orleans, Baltimore, Washinton DC, Boston, Philadelphia, and oh yeah New York City. That's well over 50 million people left homeless on the Eastern seaboard alone.
Internationally, also say goodbye to Shanghai, Tokyo, Nanjing, Pyongyang, Nanjing, Cambodia, Bangkok, Bangladesh, Denmark, The Netherlands, London, Sydney, Melbourne.... notice the trend where highly populated major metropolitan areas are located near waterways?
Nope, it is densest at 4C. I know this from spending my summers swimming in 4C water. The thermoclines set up, you get a bottom of near-freezing water, and the visibility is spectacular.
---
ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
Sea levels stopped rising in 2008 and, according to some interpretations of the data, have actually been declining ever since.
In times of universal deceit, telling the truth gets you modded -1 Troll
I never get this kind of map. If you take their logic, Netherlands should already be flooded. As far as I can see from my window, it isn't.
Higher sealevel just means building some infrastructure against flooding.
You need a decent government for that. In the U.S., we knew for decades that much of New Orleans was going to be underwater if a decent hurricane hit it (I first learned about it in college in 1992). Nothing of substance was done.
Global warming is a treacherous dutch plot to help their flood control engineering consultants. Fiendish.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
As for sea-level rise due to aquifers, I'd be as much worried about aquifer depletion as about sea-level rise.
Gubdummit! One natural disaster at a time! Take a number and wait yer turn like everybody else.
;-)
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
You Sir are having a rational thought, which can be very dangerous to your karma around here.
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
That map show sea levels. In high tide of low tide, not storms, not erosion, etc... What happened when level five hurricanes start hitting land happening monthly?
If the world was static, and the oceans still, then the map is what you would get.
It also doesn't take into account erosion.
That said, no one is really talking about a 'water world' The idea is stupid on the face of it.
But most people are talking about planning for future development of houses, cities ports, inward migration.
This is why deniers drive me batty. They are making it hard to make policy changes. They talk about nonsense such as 'bigger government' What we need is policy, at this point. wait longer then, yes, the government will need to spend a lot more money. Act now.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Here's a quick inventory of problems to cope with.
Florida has a maximum land height of 42 feet. A three foot rise in see level, plus shore erosion due to larger and more frequent storms could reduce Florida to a stub of the current state with central islands where the everglades are now.
Expanded erosion of barrier island and sand dunes along the gulf and eastern seaboard will eliminate thousands of square miles of existing shoreline, destroying some of the most valuable property in the country.
Much of the Mississippi delta and most of Louisiana will simply go away (a great deal of which is already below sea level due to subsidence from poor river engineering by the Army Corp of Engineers.)
The West Coast won't pass unscathed, because towns along the bays in both southern and northern California, will suffer significant land loss.
The simple fact is that the big cities of the world are virtually all coastal cities and as such will be seriously impacted. The amount of land shared be people and critters will shrink a couple percent (large coastal plains will be inundated... kiss Bangladesh and a number of small islands in the South Pacific goodbye.)
You bet we can engineer around it. Move cities slowly back. Build higher dikes and levees. Abandon places that are hopeless. Its just one more cost, and significant cost to consider as we continue to spew greenhouse gas into the air.
Oh, I wish I had ranted that. Well done.
Climatology became political because the fossil fuel industry spends a boatload of money on public relations to make it so. If they can stall the development and adoption of carbon-neutral energy technologies for even 10 or 15 years by spreading misinfomation and confusion, it still means hundreds of billions of dollars to them, and PR firms are cheap compared to that.
I've spoken with conservatives - a couple in my own family - who've never taken any interest in any science of any kind, yet have big, loud opinions on climatology and "bad science". Their complete lack of interest and knowledge in the subject shields them from having to consider any evidence you might present, so reason is useless. To ask them how they arrived at their conclusions is to open up a boiling cauldron of nonsense and paranoia that usually boils down to all scientists belonging to some great liberal conspiracy bent on destroying the economy. Or sometimes, just a blank stare.
> Nope, it is densest at 4C.
that is only true for fresh water.
~.~
I'm a peripheral visionary.
Water has no thermal expansion? Really? Basic physics huh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Properties_of_water#Density_of_water_and_ice
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2007/AllenMa.shtml
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ww6BIy3nc0
And water is actually slightly compressible:
http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/compressibility.html
The Netherlands seem to be doing just fine below sea level. It might cause some economic harm, but it's not going to be a tragedy. Also, most low-lying islands are coral islands that follow sea level.
Do you have a clue how expensive the water management system in the Netherlands has been? Do you realize that the Netherlands is tiny compared with the areas under threat from sea level rise in the US alone? Hell, it's tiny even compared with Florida. Do you realize that duplicating the Dutch diking system for American coastal areas would likely bankrupt the country? Not to mention how future sea level rise will make it even more difficult for even the Netherlands to maintain the integrity of their diking system.
This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
UNDER lords. Underlords.
sig: sauer
cutting emissions is economically harmful
Why do you think that? I love the way everyone thinks change = sacrifice. Even the progressives fall into that kind of thinking.
A War on Global Warming would be economically beneficial. War stimulates the economy. And unless you've been in a coma for the last 5 years, you know our economy could really use some stimulating. Producing solar cells, wind mills, hydro power, biofuels would create a lot of jobs.
World War II made the Greatest Generation great. The next generation kept the Cold War cold. Our generation also has a big challenge, a chance to live up to our parents and grandparents' examples. That problem is Global Warming, and it is bigger than terrorism, bigger even than nuclear proliferation. We've spotted and verified the danger, we have a number of plans to address the problem, all we need do now is get to work.
But so far, our conduct has been downright shameful. Denial, fear, and even lying and treachery. Imagine if after Pearl Harbor, the US had cut and run. Abandoned Hawaii and ran whimpering back to the west coast, opined that maybe those Japs and Nazis had legitimate grievances and they actually weren't bad fellows, acknowledged that we pushed the Japs into attacking by denying them oil and other resources, told Britain that Neville Chamberlain should be reinstated and France should be left to its fate. And besides, it's more profitable to keep trading with the Axis. Republicans often accuse Democrats of being wimps, peace loving fools, and impractical dreamers. Now it's the Republicans who are screwball cuckoo crazy. Even their much vaunted reputation for fiscal prudence is just so much noise with no substance. If they think they impressed me with that debt ceiling showdown last year that damaged our credit rating, while the bankers who wrecked our economy still enjoy respect, privileged access, and massive bailouts, they are mistaken! Makes me sick, the way they lobbed softballs to Dimon just the other day. The air raid siren is wailing and the Republicans are sitting there, hands over ears. "Confirmation, Kaminsky. I want confirmation." Where are the real Republicans? All dead and honorably buried in veterans' cemeteries?
We haven't had a Pearl Harbor moment yet this war, at least not a big enough event to convince the skeptics. Larsen Ice Shelf B was a footnote. Hurricane Katrina was the equivalent of blitzkrieg on Poland. We're in sitzkrieg. I hope we still have good options when the public at last acknowledges the danger.
Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
This is apparently Gore's equivalent of "I did not inhale" or "it depends on your definition of 'sex'". What this amounts to is that, in order to push his political agenda, Gore has been using technically true statements intended strike fear into people. And a lot of the advocates of action on climate change are doing the same thing, like Hansen's statements about runaway greenhouse warming and the numerous pictures of burning planets and scorched earth. The reality of climate change is much less dramatic.
I was right, it is above your reading level.