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John Carmack: Kudos To Valve, But Linux Is Still Not a Viable Gaming Market
dartttt writes "John Carmack recently presented a keynote at QuakeCon. He said Linux is still not a commercially viable gaming platform, and the two forays they have made into the Linux commercial market have not been successful. Valve's announcement about Steam for Linux changes things a bit, but it remains a tough sell."
To be honest, nothing Carmack and id Software produced in the last decade or so was marketable either.
I remember a time when people used to say DOS is the gaming platform of choice. Windows? Good enough for shitty-looking Reversi and Solitaire, but not much else.
Then Windows became the gaming platform of choice. Sounds familiar?
What I mean is, if Linux is to becomes a good gaming platform, someone has to get the ball rolling.
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
Without a good selection of available games, many people won't switch from Windows to Linux. And if many people don't switch to Linux, game publishers will be loathe to port any major games to Linux. -------- Steam may change this. It may change it a LOT. Even if just a dozen or so AAA games get ported to Linux, it would be a positive start. ----- I would love to run Linux instead of Windows 7. I really would. But the lack of games and some other applications on Linux keeps me on Win 7. ----- Good luck to any Linux gaming pioneers. Carmageddon: Reincarnation will be ported to Linux, so that is one potentially major game title being ported to the tux.
Why did the chicken cross the road? Because Elon Musk put an AI chip in its head.
I can't believe this guy thinks that their "forays into Linux commercial market" are even close to the scale of Valve porting Source.
Speaking for myself - I've definitely been using Ubuntu practically exclusively now for a few months (12.04 is a joy). I WOULD get rid of my Windows PC if it weren't for gaming. This is definitely good news for the discriminating user. I'd like to see all of my Steam games moved to Linux (never going to happen), but a Steam version of a game will make a difference to me. Eagerly awaiting LfD2 on Linux. Using a closed source OS definitely makes me nervous, there've been too many cases in the past few years of manufacturers pulling info from users when they shouldn't - would like an OS that's open to community scrutiny.
Is the problem there are no gamers on Linux or the problem there are no games on Linux?
I am Linux only.
I play MassEffect, Skyrim, MindCraft, LoTRO, GuildWars, played WoW for far to long.
I will play GuildWars2.
I paid for but have still not activated SW:ToR. It worked on Linux in Beta and then they did a zig/zag and it did not. I know there is a wine patch. Just have not done it and interest in doing so is decling.
I am a paying Linux gamer. I would have given more money to SW:ToR, but they broke their game on Linux.
When Steam does it's "Check System" thing it reports my machine as windows *sigh*, so I am not even sure I am counted.
There is a Linux market, just not sure anyone knows it.
His company's foray into Linux gaming hasn't panned out. That doesn't mean that a different strategy might not work. That's like saying that because MS tried to find consumer success with tablets for over a decade that there is no chance anyone else could do it...er...
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
Who's left to sell to?
If the FPS is better, the Windows-gamers will come...
That wasn't Carmack, that was John Romero. And, no, I don't remember Daikatana either.
Thankfully, Microsoft is making Linux a viable gaming platform by so utterly screwing up the Windows gaming platform with Windows 8. Valve is just covering its bases.
"I like systems, their application excepted", George Sand (French)
I would. Step 1 is make a large size of games available for Linux (and make them easy to install; no CLI shit!). Sure, there's a risk, but if you're not taking chances, then why bother do anything?
...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
As far as I can tell Carmack's efforts boiled down to trying to sell individual games mostly and to just accept things on Linux as they are for better or worse. What Valve is doing is trying to integrate their entire platform and being a game delivery network that works across Windows Mac and Linux, that's exactly what it is...a platform. Just like the browser is a platform. Valve is also apparently working hand in hand with the big players in the Linux graphics card space to make drivers first class. They are profiling to find bottlenecks in how their code integrates with the kernel. Valve is making a very serious effort here and it extends beyond anything Carmack has tried so far. If anything maybe Carmack could learn something instead of just lambasting because he couldn't see it through. Of course these are early days still and Steam for Linux hasn't even been released yet which even more makes me wonder why Carmack is already predicting Doom (get it?) for it.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
I second that. Rage on its own merits was a mediocre AAA FPS with a buggy launch and consolitis. As a monument to Johm Carmack's overinflated view of his own relevance to gaming in general, it was and continues to be extremely telling. Linux isn't commercially viable for game designers because the market isn't there, and the market isn't there because developers don't make games for it. Valve stepping up and bringing Steam to Linux has the potential to cut that particular Gordian knot. Frankly, Valve is big and relevant enough to do it; Carmack doesn't have the juice to do it if he wanted to anymore.
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First of all, the Linux userbase is really small to begin with. Within that small userbase, you have two relatively large groups:
1. The ideologues, who really believe in RMS's idea that proprietary software is unethical.
2. The cheapskates, who aren't going to pay for software.
Do you have any actual evidence that the Linux userbase is composed primarily of these two groups? Because anecdotally I hear lots of Linux users that are chomping at the bit for Steam to come and looking forward to paying for games. Furthermore, the Humble Indie Bundle has shown that there are gamers on Linux that will pay. Will that translate to profit for Valve et al? Who knows. But it does show that you, dear AC, have no idea what you are talking about.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
First of all, the Linux userbase is really small to begin with. Within that small userbase, you have two relatively large groups:
1. The ideologues, who really believe in RMS's idea that proprietary software is unethical.
2. The cheapskates, who aren't going to pay for software.
Considering that I have paid for Linux applications (for my home PCs), and subsequently paid for version upgrades for those applications, I think you need a third category:
3. The people who pay for decent software that fits a particular purpose better than the free options.
In case, you're wondering: Mathematica and Bibble Pro[*]. Both have native Linux versions with excellent support.
[*] Apparently, Bibble Pro was renamed to Corel Aftershot Pro after Corel bought Bibble.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
First of all, the Linux userbase is really small to begin with. Within that small userbase, you have two relatively large groups:
1. The ideologues, who really believe in RMS's idea that proprietary software is unethical. 2. The cheapskates, who aren't going to pay for software.
Who's left to sell to?
Well. Apparently I don't exist! Good to know.
Until someone decided to try and make them into one. Now there are tons of sales.
Will Linux become a common gaming platform if no one tries? No.
You didn't get it: the "game" for Rage was getting Rage to run on your system, with in game achievements for various textures and colors displaying correctly. The actual run-around-and-shoot-stuff was just DLC for the people who had already won. I haven't won yet, but then again I haven't felt like doing complete AMD driver reinstall yet.
Or: after departure of John Romero.
The guys together were a great combo. Separately, they are just mediocre.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.
The big difference is that Windows actually was just capable of shitty-looking Reversi or Solitaire back in the day when DOS was still the primary PC gaming platform. DirectX changed that and it was only after the release of DirectX that gaming on Windows became viable.
Linux however has had gaming capabilities for a long time, but still there's a huge lack of compelling titles. The reason why gaming on Linux isn't taking of is because of politics, not a technical reason like with DOS/Windows.
Pretty good is actually pretty bad.
I won't mean anything if the only games they bring over is L4D2 and Portal.
That's pure strawman and you know it. There is no way that only those two games will be on Linux. Peruse steam and look at the games for Mac and that will give you at least an idea of what can be expected for Linux. Also bear in mind the relative ease of porting between OS X and Linux (kind of like porting between iOS and Android) and you instantly add a significant amount of people to your potential non-Windows user base which should have a nice additive effect and make even more games show up in the Mac/Linux column.
Steam on Linux is 100% panic from Valve realizing that Steam is about to become irrelevant.
I'm sure it started out that way but who fucking cares? It's happening so they might as well give it all they have and make it work. As a Linux user I benefit and will definitely buy games.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
About to become irrelevant?
I'd love to hear how you came to that conclusion. Please. Anything?
In this case, I agree. The guy knows his shit. :)
Of course, that still doesn't mean you have to agree with him.
Yes. And since it has been years since any attempt and Linux use has grown. Perhaps time to try again, or at least take pre-orders with a promise of "if X orders come in, we'll do it for sure".
FWIW - last time they (id) tried, about 11-12 years ago, I bought 3 copies of Q3 for linux - one "l33t tin edition", and 2 "regular" versions (one to use and play, the other for a friend). And, I bought them on pre-order/release day at full retail price.
Shortly after, Loki started selling their stuff, and I bought several (SoF, Mechwarrior, Descent 3d) - wish I had gotten more of 'em.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos
I know this will turn into a "chicken or the egg" conversation...
"We shouldn't build games for Linux unless there's a proven market!"
"There can't be a market if there are no games to buy!"
But, there's an obvious "egg" here. There must first be a venturing company with a solid history of great games (*cough* half-life, portal, TF2, etc.) that's willing to take the risk. Forging new markets it ALL ABOUT RISK. If you're stunted by your fear of risk, then you're probably not a good entrepreneur.
Work it Valve. I hope it works out for the best. And if it doesn't, then EVERYONE will still thank you for giving it the ol' Orange Box try!
Sorry John but successful people create a market, they don't wait for it to be ready for you. Valve working with GPU manufacturers is a signal that they want to create a market. It is sad to say this but Id was a market defining company, now a follower
I love when nerds praise JC but then he speaks the truth about linux and they start dissing him and calling him irrelevant. carmack: OPENGL FASTER THAN DIRECTX!!! TELL EVERYONE!! carmack: LINUX IS STILL NOT VIABLE GAMING PLATFORM!!! DOWN WITH CARMACK HES IRRELEVANT AND DOESNT KNOW WHAT HES TALKING ABOUT!!!!
Hold up there, homeslice. There are a lot of people that post on Slashdot and some of them like Carmack and some of them are Linux users. There is nothing inherently mutually inclusive between these two groups. I think Carmack is cool and I use Linux but nobody is perfect. Note all the people that piss all over Rage and Doom 3 so it is pure strawman to say that every nerd praises him at every turn. He says that Linux isn't a viable gaming platform and his main argument is that he failed to crack it. That's not a good argument as to why Valve can't make it happen. Matter of fact Valve is taking a completely different approach so it is unlikely that any conclusions can be drawn from id's experience in the space. Maybe you and Carmack should wait and see. Newell and co. might just show us all how it's done.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
Agree with both you and the GP. Additionally: Isn't he just a corporate shill now? And honestly the engines that have come out since Q3A have been mediocre through and through. Go check out ogre's SampleBrowser and tell me he had half of those effects demo'd in even Rage. The only possible neat thing to come out since Doom 3 was megatextures and honestly though were a kludge for a problem existing due to memory constrained systems, requiring the grunt on the dev box side to 'bake' them instead.
Enjoy your retirement John, you've earned it.
Because of the integration of Microsoft Marketplace in Windows 8 of course.
Games on Steam are non-exclusive. Nobody is preventing publishers who are already selling through Steam from adding their products to Microsoft Marketplace. In time this may mean people will look for games on Microsoft Marketplace (which is already on their system) and not even bother to download & install Steam.
Pretty good is actually pretty bad.
I remember a time when people used to say DOS is the gaming platform of choice. Windows? Good enough for shitty-looking Reversi and Solitaire, but not much else.
Then Windows became the gaming platform of choice. Sounds familiar?
Yes, it does sound familiar. Unfortunately, Windows was the upgrade path from DOS, and further, it would run virtually all DOS games if you booted it into DOS mode, so the comparison doesn't really hold as Windows was essentially guaranteed a strong user base.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
It doesn't matter. It's been too long since Carmack tried. So anything he has to say on the matter is terribly dated. It's like anyone else that tries to use Loki as an example.
So you failed 10 years ago? Big deal. It's been a long time since then. Things change.
They used to say the same thing about MacOS gaming too.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
does his sales figures include the decade of games where you would download the linux binary off of their website and copy the data files off the windows retail copy? cause a whole generation of ID games allowed you to do just that.
It could be worse. At least Carmack hasn't married Yoko Ono.
xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
I am Linux only. I play [...] Skyrim...
I tried to run it on Linux...
Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
[false strawman deleted]
> Who's left to sell to?
The people that keep on making the Indie Humble bundles as successful for Linux as they are MacOS.
If you want to paint Linux users as cheap or as theives then you are barking up the wrong tree. Clearly it's Windows users that are the biggest pirates and trying to claim any different is insane or retarded.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
Peruse steam and look at the games for Mac and that will give you at least an idea of what can be expected for Linux.
Was that supposed to be an argument that Carmack is right or wrong?
The number of AAA games available on Steam on Mac is tiny in comparison to either Steam on Windows or any of the major consoles.
If this is going to work, then when Steam on Linux launches, there needs to be a wave of gamers who have been itching to move away from Windows waiting to jump on all the new and improved Linux gaming goodness. If it's just a trickle of Linux fans and a couple of curious not-quite-geeks, this will go nowhere and probably kill gaming on Linux forever, because no other company is ever going to invest in a serious Linux port if there proves to be no profitable market there.
Getting the kind of orders-of-magnitude shift required is going to need either a sensible range of big name titles in each major gaming genre or at least a couple of killer titles that aren't available on any other platform that will get the ball rolling and sustain it long enough for momentum to build, or preferably both. If Valve aren't actively working with several other major studios to promote this idea and get serious games other than their own ready to launch on day one, they've totally lost the plot. Hopefully they're working on a huge joint marketing effort with at least one major Linux distro, too.
On the other hand, if Valve are not only working the back channels to get serious games in the pipeline but also planning to throw everything they've got behind launching a dedicated Linux-based gaming console to cut out all the middle men, then a few execs at places like Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft ought to be worried. It might be a spectacular failure, but Valve are big and powerful enough that they might just pull it off, and introducing a fourth credible console whose games can also be played on geeks' Linux boxes would be a substantial threat, effectively making them the Apple of the gaming world.
If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
Yeah, that's true. But I would still use Steam on Windows because I like Valve's atittude toward their customers. Valve is the only company which has pledged that they will support migrating the software you've purchased off their platform if they ever go under. I also like the fact that they have vision, which is something that's sorely lacking in the industry. Many other publishers have hack solutions for downloading games, and I choose not to use those because they can't even figure out how to integrate their own games into their service.
EA's origin system is a perfect example. It sucks, and half the time when I start up older EA games and log in it still won't authenticate my DLC. Simply put, it's buggy crap. Valve has a history of putting together competently built software for all of the platforms they support, so I'm pretty confident that they'll do Linux gaming very well even if nobody has succeeded before. This is mainly because Valve knows what "well" looks like.
Maybe they should just bundle the shared libraries like they do it on Windows.
Did you read the 'limitation' Valve added? Should your dispute get to the point of arbitration, Valve agrees to refund the cost of the software. In exchange you don't get to file a class action lawsuit.
Now, in what scenario would you file a class action lawsuit over a game where the payout would be greater than the cost of the game?
Yeah but that took the better part of a decade and a half.
No, the transition of DOS to Windows went surprisingly quick. You just have to know when to start counting.
Before Windows 95, Windows was not really considered a full operating system by Microsoft or its users, but merely a GUI to run applications on top of DOS. This was nice for productivity apps or file management, but no gamer was interested in any of that. Most users were very aware of the fact Windows was running on top of DOS as most of them didn't even start Windows by default, but only launched it when needed. Windows didn't facilitate gaming in any way, but there was also no need as everyone was completely fine with running games straight from DOS with which they were already familiar with.
When Windows 95 came out, things changed as it was no longer possible to boot up to DOS and launch Windows later, as it was common with prior versions of Windows. So only when the GUI became the default environment, the need started to arise for games to run on the Windows platform instead of relying on DOS. The problem with this was however that Windows 95 didn't allow programs direct access to the hardware, which caused problems with achieving the required performance to run games properly. Microsoft actually saw this problem coming (oh how the times have changed) and started working on DirectX to solve this in 1994. By the end of 1995 (the year Windows 95 was released) the first version of DirectX became available to the public.
Just a year later in 1996 the first batch of "real" games became available which made use of this new technology (C&C: Red Alert and Diablo to name a few come to mind). In 1997 a huge amount of PC games were making use of DirectX to run directly in Windows (Age of Empires, Tomb Raider 2, Quake II, Dungeon Keeper etc. etc.). In 1998 the amount of games released for MS-DOS was close to zero.
All in all the transition from DOS to DirectX was one of the biggest leaps in PC gaming technology. And the entire operation was basically completed in under three years. It's one of the bigger success stories of the industry and certainly not something to talk down.
Pretty good is actually pretty bad.
>>>I remember a time when people used to say DOS is the gaming platform of choice.
Not anyone I ever met except those who were unfortunate enough to be stuck with 16-color PCs that went "beep". The true gaming platforms of the 80s and early 90s were:
Atari 800
Commodore 64
Commodore Amiga -or- Atari ST
- These machines blew-away anything the PCs of the day could do. Of course nowadays there's very little difference in graphics or sound, so people just pick the defacto standard (the OS that has 88% desktop penetration).
My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
In what universe is this? Publishers are interested in any marketplace they can sell things on, as long as it's successful...Windows will have the marketplace built in. What do you think people's default is going to be?
Regardless, I'd say he's pretty familiar with the gaming market with a better-than-average understanding of how viable the platform is.
And I say this with all due respect to my fellow linux users, I'm pretty sure he's right on target here. That's not to say it can't change... it's just an accurate comment on the current state of things.
So there's no need to "poison the well" here by trying to sell everyone on Carmack's supposed irrelevance.
Enough with the personal attacks on Carmack. He's not the issue, the marketplace is. 15 years after it first appeared, desktop Linux has shown no sign of grabbing more than a tiny fraction of the market. Catering to that tiny fraction is not a sound business model, for game companies or anybody else.
Why would this be such a tall order? Everything on your list Microsoft already does with Xbox Live.
Pretty good is actually pretty bad.
Steam isn't going to magically create supply or demand by itself.
No it won't. Steam occupies that niche between the two: Marketing.
Steam doesn't create supply or demand. It aggregates them. It brings all the Suppliers and Consumers under one roof. Consumers looking for Linux games can browse Steam rather than hunting down lists of "10 Best Commercial Games For Linux (by Some Guy; Jan 23, 2008)", and developers looking for Linux customers can upload to Steam rather than create their own distribution channels.
PC gamers use PCs because they can upgrade hardware components easily. Macs have always been "black boxes" for the most part, have focused on proprietary hardware, and have generally approached gaming as a secondary priority, if a priority at all. Linux, however, will run on a PC, and supports a wider range of gaming-oriented hardware than Apple OSs ever have.
People don't buy Macs for gaming; they own Macs and then want to play a particular game. To make the switch, they have to spend more money (to get a copy of Bootcamp and Windows, for example). People who own PCs run either Windows or Linux; to switch from Windows to Linux is free. If you only run Windows to play games, you can dump Windows and run Steam in Linux without incurring any additional cost. Not so with Mac. So, comparing the Mac market to a potential Linux market is apples and oranges, really.
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That's not quite correct. As a whole games are mostly pirated. What steam has done is make prices low enough that we can make instant purchases. If linux becomes a viable platform, more people will move to Linux and certainly indy game publishers will get the benefit since Steam would be the main system on Linux for this if they want games for Linux.
Not anyone I ever met except those who were unfortunate enough to be stuck with 16-color PCs that went "beep".
The modular design of the PC meant that improvements in graphics and sound would eventually out-pace even the best of the systems whose tech was frozen in amber.
Games like King's Quest demonstrated the raw horsepower of the 16 bit IBM PC.
No hardware supported sprite animation?
No problem.
But is what he is saying wrong? I don't think so. Other than a few things like the humble bundle the simple fact is FOSS is built around "free as in beer" as much as it is "free as in freedom" so there simply aren't enough users willing to buy to make it a market worth pursuing.
I mean you have at best estimates around 3% being actual desktop users (no you aren't allowed to count servers, routers, your CCC Droid phone, because lets face it those won't run the latest Quake engine games) and of those how many have bought software in the last 6 months? Frankly if that answer was 20% I'd be amazed, probably less than 10%. FOSS users are simply used to getting everything "free as in beer" and if you are trying to actually sell software that's just not a market you should target.
In the end we all know Old Gabe at Valve isn't looking at Linux because he gives a rat's ass about Steam on the Linux desktop, okay? Ballmer dropped trou and waved his sweaty ass at Gabe by trying to cut Valve out of the market with the appstore and old Gabe don't get mad he gets even by trying to royally fuck MSFT in a market they've spent billions trying to capture, the home console market. Well if you're Gabe how to you do this? Why using a stripped down Linux and COTS hardware of course!
I'm sure he'll have a nice little bidding war between Intel and AMD for the platform (which I wouldn't be surprised if AMD wins, they can sell Valve chips for less and with their A series APUs you could have built in crossfire with an AMD discrete and give the box some crazy graphics power).Once he settles on a platform its not like he is gonna have to worry about updates hosing drivers or anything like that since he'll control the system. Put in a hardware DRM chip and they're off to the races. He already has deals with most of the indies so all he has to do is get a few of the other big names like Activision on board and he can fuck over Ballmer AND make good money.
So I gotta agree with Carmack, if you are building a "steambox" type of device? Well Linux is a damned smart move, its mature, already has tons of coders working in embedded, it cuts the hell out of your time to market. But if you are like ID and only interested in selling software? It just doesn't make sense, just not enough money there to be picked up to make it worth the expense.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
Following up here's just one example of one of his comments from a 1997 .plan file:
Linux
I consider linux the second most important platform after win32 for id. From a biz standpoint it would be ludicrous to place it even on par with mac or os/2, but for our types of games that are designed to be hacked, linux has a big plus: the highest hacker to user ratio of any os. I don't personally develop on linux, because I do my unixy things with NEXTSTEP, but I have a lot of technical respect for it.
What happened to you, John?
I think the major problem is people looking at 'games for linux' like it was 'games for Windows'. Linux doesn't refer to one operating system, it refers to hundreds and hundreds of variations of an operating system, running all sorts of different desktop environments on all different types of hardware with patchy driver support.
If there were an operating system Linux that they were making games for, it might work, but does that mean Debian, or Ubuntu(based on Debian) or Fedora, or SuSE, or what? There's just too many platforms within the category to properly support them all from one port of a game.
If the only way you can accept an assertion is by faith, then you are conceding that it can't be taken on its own merits
I'm an MBA (hold off on the throwing of the rotten vegetables! I'm a IT person too!) So I'd like to put my 2 cents worth on the whole thing from a business perspective.
Everyone's talking about it being a chicken and egg situation where devs aren't making games for Linux because there's no market, and there's no market because there aren't any games. This isn't really the situation. The execs at big companies often deal with situations where they have to take a leap of faith. Every time there's a new console, for example, the execs at companies like EA decide whether or not to make games for it well before the console is released, so they're making games for a market with 0 users! They make the decisions based on a few key factors, including looking at the risks, the chances of success, and the possible rewards given the market. Here are just some aspects that are probably discouraging to an exec at a big gaming company:
1. History. Linux is old. Really old. And it hasn't taken off in the consumer market yet. So it's a pretty big leap for an EA exec to think it's going to get popular now. There hasn't really been any change in the market that would point to a massive upswing in Linux gaming.
2. High potential risks. Xbox isn't that big a risk to support, since it uses similar tech to Windows. Linux? It's a bit different. Sure, it uses OpenGL, like a mac, but it's a whole different platform. This wouldn't be a deal killer by itself, but it's another nail in the coffin since it increases the risks.
3. Lack of proof of a market. As people have pointed out, the Humble Bundles sold well, but they had people giving to them because a. They wanted to support small indie developers and b. they wanted to support the charities that the Humble Bundles give to. When companies look to predict what's going to happen they look for comparability, that is, they try to find similar situations where there was a success, and there is very little evidence for this. Should they take a chance anyway, and do something new? That leads us to the last and perhaps biggest point:
4. Low first mover advantage. One of the things a business looks for is first mover advantage, that is, what kind of benefits do they get by taking the risk of being the first to do something. What they're looking for is some reason to think that going first will let them get and HOLD ON TO a chunk of the market. This isn't the case with Linux. Let's say that Carmack decides to make his latest game (Quake 7, this time it's even Quakier!) in Linux. Let's be generous and say that Q7 is released, the Linux gaming market explodes, and everyone buys Q7 for Linux. Carmack took a big risk. What did he get in return? Well, he got big profits, obviously. But he didn't do as well from this deal as you'd think: Let's say that Blizzard, after seeing Q7's success, produces a first-person Linux game called Starcraft 3D: Raynor on a Plane. Assuming it's of a similar quality to Q7, their profits are about the same. Maybe even better, since the market has now grown even more. But they didn't have to take the risks that Carmack did: they lost nothing by waiting until Linux was already a success. And unlike with a console Linux doesn't have a short life cycle, so they had all the time in the world to wait. It's true that Q7 had the advantage of being the only game in town, but that advantage won't last long. Therefore, there's nothing to be gained by being the company that takes a chance on Linux. Sad but true.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that most of the discussion on Linux's chances of success revolve around its worthiness as a platform, but a good platform isn't enough. There has to be a strategy to attract gaming business, and Linux doesn't really have one that works. Steam's support is nice, but in the long run it just isn't enough given the risks that an EA or iD would have to take as things are.
As a whole games are mostly pirated
I like to pirate stuff as much as the next guy, but that's simply not true. Yes, many people pirate software on the PC, but the fact remains that a HUGE part of the gaming market is not on a PC at all, and pirating games for console systems has become exceedingly complicated.
Even on the PC, sales still outweigh pirated copies by quite a bit. The media and industry really want you to believe that piracy is this HUGE issue driving them out of business, but it isn't at all. My personal experience is when working for Sony, our sales team estimated the total loss to piracy to be right around 1.2% of our total sales. Some months would be as high as 2.5% or so, but usually much less.
My only idea for why software developers might be struggling is a lack of original material. Is Killzone 8 or CoD:12 really going to sell as much as Killzone or CoD: 2/3? Of course not, people get bored with that identical rehashing of control, plot, graphics, etc. Also, the technology used for games has nearly stagnated. Yes, you have all the new DirectX 10/11 geometry shaders and cool features like that, but due to the cost of hardware to properly run them most people remain at a DX9.0c level of gaming. With new computers shipping with DX10/11 compatible hardware now, they can use the newer games but just because that feature is supported doesn't mean it will run at full, or even one step above the lowest settings. Even simple games like Minecraft (which prides itself in being low-res) require more in the way of graphics and hardware than a stock one-year-old i3 laptop can provide.
If the only way you can accept an assertion is by faith, then you are conceding that it can't be taken on its own merits
MacOS gaming: still sucks in 2012.
Oh, sure, you have access to about 10% of PC titles, but performance is roughly halved on the same hardware. Only a handful of GPUs are supported in 3D accelerated mode at all. That sounds suspiciously like the Linux gaming experience, no ? Carmack is still quite relevant, and his points ring true because very little has been done on either platform to change the situation.
Me, I don't care. I have work machines, and I have gaming machines. I use whichever OS is most appropriate for the task at hand. I don't need Linux to be a great gaming platform, because that's what I use for work, not play.
-Billco, Fnarg.com
Carmack's relevance is not overinflated. He is a brilliant programmer. He's just not a designer. That used to be Romero's job, back in the glory days. Romero would put out the cool ideas, and Carmack would bring them to reality.
A lot of programmers are like that. You can be a technical genius, a creative genius, or somewhere in between. You can even oscillate between the two poles, but I've never heard of anyone being a creative technical genius. They are fundamentally contrasting modes of thought.
Give the man a great, fleshed-out concept and he will turn it into a top-tier game. He has a gift for tackling complex, multi-faceted problems that seem insurmountable. He just needs someone to provide those challenges, otherwise he will continue to churn out the same tired old crap.
-Billco, Fnarg.com
The difference is OSX users are prime marketing real estate. They generally have a lot of money, and don't mind spending it. This isn't to say Linux users are the opposite, but the population isn't as flush with cash on the whole.
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Other than a few things like the humble bundle the simple fact is FOSS is built around "free as in beer" as much as it is "free as in freedom" so there simply aren't enough users willing to buy to make it a market worth pursuing.
Many users and advocates of FOSS software have accepted the fact that "free as in beer" will never translate into AAA titles being developed for your platform so I don't think Valve has this particular hurdle to overcome. As far as the minimum viable number of users I don't know what that is but I would assume that Valve has crunched those numbers and feel like it is indeed a market worth pursuing. Note that they have access to the Steam install statistics so they know exactly how many people are playing the games in Wine. Of course that will not directly translate to sales for the native Steam but it is a good guideline as to the size of the underserved Linux AAA title game market. There is also an argument to be made for "creating" a market. Newell seems to be very committed to this idea and it is already known that Valve are working with hardware vendors on drivers, they're optimizing their own very popular Source engine for Linux, and they are highly motivated through fear of the future for independent software distribution platforms on Windows their core market. If Valve can adequately address the historical difficulties of bringing proprietary software to Linux then I would expect the market to grow larger as a by-product of that.
I mean you have at best estimates around 3% being actual desktop users (no you aren't allowed to count servers, routers, your CCC Droid phone, because lets face it those won't run the latest Quake engine games) and of those how many have bought software in the last 6 months? Frankly if that answer was 20% I'd be amazed, probably less than 10%. FOSS users are simply used to getting everything "free as in beer" and if you are trying to actually sell software that's just not a market you should target.
Again, ask the typical Linux user if they believe AAA games will come to Linux for free and I doubt very many would say yes. As a Linux user and as a software developer, I am very pragmatic about the situation. I want a free platform that I can install and have a usable computer. I want drivers to run my hardware that do not necessarily have to be Free but if they are non-free then I should have a reasonable expectation that they will carry me for the life of the product. In the case of video drivers, nVidia is very good at supporting their products on Linux for their useful lifespan whereas AMD will drop support in a heartbeat. Ergo, if I want to game on Linux, I buy nVidia. Going beyond that, I prefer essential software to be Free as that is what makes the computer usable. But, and this is where the difference comes in, when it comes to non-essential throw-aways like games, I don't have any problem at all with them being non-free. I'm not into playing the same game after I've beaten it once so I don't care about recompiling it for future hardware or anything else. I understand that there are still Doom die-hards playing multi-player with that but I'm not in that camp. I think the success of Android amongs Linux users points to the pragmatic acceptance that some things just aren't Free. There is no remotely modern handset on the market with completely free hardware and while that isn't the greatest thing ever, it isn't something stopping Linux users from buying Android phones. I don't think Steam being non-Free will be a serious impediment either.
In the end we all know Old Gabe at Valve isn't looking at Linux because he gives a rat's ass about Steam on the Linux desktop, okay? Ballmer dropped trou and waved his sweaty ass at Gabe by trying to cut Valve out of the market with the appstore and old Gabe don't get mad he gets even by trying to royally fuck MSFT in a market they've spent billions trying to capture, the home console market. Well if yo
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
On your a) point, yes, it will be extremely difficult for MS to make that happen but they have an Ace in the hole with Metro. If they can get consumers to move to using Metro in lieu of the classic desktop then they don't have to de jure block third party developers because the consumers have de facto done it for them. This scares Valve.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
First, the premise that there are no gamers on linux, therefore, don't create games on linux is a chicken and egg problem. Game *developers* have to make an unprofiitable leap of fait to get the ball rolling. Given a large potential base of users that grudgingly tolerate MS platform (potentially exacerbated by Win8), giving them an out may be sufficient.
As Steam has taken on a life of it's own, Valve seems to be less and less about developing games and more and more about being a marketplace for digitally purchased gaming content. This presumably means that revenue from that endeavor is dwarfing what they historically have gotten from developing games, *despite* having some of the most acclaimed titles of all time. Both Apple and MS threaten that by wanting to push their own app distribution facility as first-party, reducing the value of the Steam offering. It is in Valve's *long* term interests to try to push users away from platforms like Windows and OSX onto a platform that is the least likely to have a single coherent strategy lock out things like Steam. To this end, Valve could even do something insane, like release HL2: Ep3 as a Linux exclusive. Would that be catastrophic for the sales of that title? Absolutely. Would it simultaneously bring in a critical mass of gamers to Linux, a platform where Valve may continue to thrive in an 'app store' world? Very possible.
Finally, sometimes it's not *purely* a straightforward business call. For reference, see Blizzard. Blizzard titles have consistently supported MacOS since 1994, even in the most pessimitistic times for the platform. It's quite possible the Mac versions of many of their titles 15 years ago lost money compared to effort required to do it, but they presumably maintained that effort out of love of the platform or continued need to prove they can be a multi-platform company. Keep in mind that while Linux isn't that directly popular (ignoring ubiquitous embedded application and android), it is immensely popular amongst developers and computing enthusiasts. That's the same market that companies like Valve hire from, and developers likely would support Linux as a labor of love.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
It also does another thing: it removes all consumer rights from the consumers. This alone should kill Steam's current model, but it appears they've done a great job at not advertising that fact, and very few people point it out. They even say "buy" and "own" in their store, so I guess they desperately want people to be oblivious to their business model. Fantastic, and probably horribly illegal.
Regardless, I'd say he's pretty familiar with the gaming market with a better-than-average understanding of how viable the platform is.
Yes, because Carmack really hit the mark with critically panned Rage. These days I'd trust Newell's judgement more than I'd trust Carmack.
Carmack is living in the 90's, it's been at least a decade since he's made anything of worth, I rate him as useless as Romero. Fossils that tell us a lot about the past but nothing of the future.
Or people just don't care. I don't. I'm fully aware of the fact that I won't be able to sell the games I buy on Steam. But I wasn't goign to anyway, and even if I was it's 75% off, I'm saving at least as much as I would have gotten from selling it.
So besides that what else has changed for Linux since RedHat gave up on the desktop and Loki fell?
Valve is now porting the source engine to Linux (Left4dead 2 first, but other titles are sure to follow).
Many indie games on steam have been offered via humble bundles (which require they provide a Linux version).
And here I compiled a list of Kickstarter games (Thanks to the Phoronix and reddit/r/Linux community) that got funded and are releasing with a Linux version.
And of course, with all the work they're doing porting steam and the source engine to Linux, it would make sense that Linux would be a strong contender for their 'Steam Box' .
Georgia Tech, the leader in Chia(tm) technology.
Oh wow, hairyfeet is attacking his strawmen again. Linux users, on average, spend more than Windows users by the virtue of not consisting in large part of NEETs and high school kids. They just don't spend on software because they have superior software for free, and software they would consider buying, does not exist. Last year I personally spent something around $500 on Xilinx tools for Linux (not counting stuff that came with the development board that I also bought), just so I won't have to deal with "work-related/non-work-related" dichotomy in my open source projects. Before, when I had a company, I have bought licenses for multiple versions of VariCAD for Linux because I needed a 3D CAD that can interoperate with metal shops that mostly use SolidWorks. I am not much of a gamer, and I believe that open source is a superior way of developing game engines just like it is a superior way to develop all software, however I see nothing wrong with buying games. I have games from Humble Bundles, and would buy games that I find worth playing if they were available on Linux.
On the other hand, this is how much I have paid for Windows and all Windows software over 27 years that Windows existed: $0.
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
Carmack didn't add a third dimension to the world, he came up with a way of making it run fast enough for a twitch shooter on early 90s computers, but Ultima Underworlds was earlier and more 3D than Wolfenstein (it had up and down, and jumping - but was kinda slow and clunky on the hardware of the day.) And there was the 80s turn based 3d that was popular in Wizardry etc.
It's been a very good month for me, +5-wise, so I can afford to say this:
"I don't know what Carmack is talking about -- Linus is a hell of a game market: there are hundreds of thousands of Linux users, each one of which is ready to bittorrent the games."
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
I remember a time when people used to say DOS is the gaming platform of choice. Windows? Good enough for shitty-looking Reversi and Solitaire, but not much else.
Yes, they said that when Windows was just an optional thing sitting on top of DOS.
Then Windows became the gaming platform of choice. Sounds familiar?
Yes, immediately after it went 32-bit and became its own operating system, in 1995. One year later in 1996 we had best selling games like Diablo coming out, Windows only, and setting record sales.
What I mean is, if Linux is to becomes a good gaming platform, someone has to get the ball rolling.
Problem is they started trying to get that ball rolling back in the 1990s.
And here's iTunes':
It's intriguing, really. Neither of these require forfeiture of rights. Yet for some reason, Valve insists on it with Steam. I expect the very first time that Valve faces a serious lawsuit from Steam that this model will come tumbling down; that there will be a ruling that you cannot simply call a sale of a product something else in an attempt
Sure, they have the extra cash to burn, but they can also dual-boot into Windows. It takes all of 30 seconds, runs all the games faster than native OSX ports, and well, I don't know about you, but when I'm playing a serious, full-screen game, I couldn't care less about which OS is running in the background. I actually like the separation, since when I'm booted into OSX or Linux, I'm in work mode with few distractions. It's a semi-conscious association that helps me focus.
-Billco, Fnarg.com
This guy has open-sourced all of his game engines (baring id Tech 5, but only because it's still in use commercially at id), even going so far as to rewrite critical portions of an engine (id Tech 4, specifically the implementation of stencil buffered shadow volume algorithms) so that it could be open sourced in the first place (work he would get no money from and didn't have any obligation to do... and yet did it anyway), and what happens? The Linux community, the primary beneficiary for all this open-sourced goodness which has been used in countless free games, bash Carmack because he has the balls to say that iD Software have not had any commercial success with the Linux platform.
Now whether you agree with his criteria for measuring this success or not, the number of hateful comments I'm reading people make towards this guy is truly disgusting. If I were in his position, why the FUCK would I want to even look at the Linux community anymore after giving them so much?
Most people on Slashdot are fucking idiots.
It's been a very good month for me, +5-wise, so I can afford to say this:
"I don't know what Carmack is talking about -- Linus is a hell of a game market: there are hundreds of thousands of Linux users, each one of which is ready to bittorrent the games."
...and some of them would be more than happy to pay for the games too, as long as games are offered in the right spirit. It's not totally implausible, that ratio would be better for game publishers than current bought-pirated ratio in Windows gaming world is.
Strangely I know lots of Linux users who paid good money for Neverwinter Nights (the first one) on Linux. The Linux version also had less DRM than the Windows version.
I own the steelbox of Quake3 for Linux; bought it retail.
I think the major problem is user base, not interest level or willingness to pay.
- Michael T. Babcock (Yes, I blog)