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Why Mars Is Not the Limit For Human Space Flight

"Mars is not just the next or most accessible human destination, it is the ultimate one," writes Louis Friedman, executive director emeritus of The Planetary Society. He says the concept of manned spaceflight is progressing so slowly, and robotic developments so swiftly, that Mars will be the first and last planet humans set foot on. "By the time human spaceflight technology is theoretically capable of journeys beyond Mars, humans in modern space systems will be virtual explorers interacting with the environments of distant worlds, but without the baggage of physical transportation or presence." Mark Whittington disagrees, saying Friedman is demonstrating Clarke's First Law, and that the history of human exploration is rife with periods of stagnation interrupted by technological achievement that led to swift progress.

256 comments

  1. Dead wrong by Spy+Handler · · Score: 5, Insightful

    if it's possible for humans to go somewhere, they will go there. History has proven that. Only reason we haven't been to Mars or Titan or Ceti Alpha V is that we didn't have the means to. But Elon and others are trying to change that...

    1. Re:Dead wrong by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 0

      Because once mankind masters being able to breathe nothing and piss ice-cubes? There's no stopping how far we can leave a trail of litter, across the galaxy! :-)

      --
      "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
      Never been known to fail..."
    2. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      the reason why we haven't gone anywhere in space is that we're drowning in greed and corruption

      "we" haven't even really been to the moon... only a very small select few astronauts went on very short demonstration trips, in which each only went once, and all on a defense budget

      if we ever are to have any chance of getting anywhere in space, it will require a catastrophe that falls barely short of complete human extinction to make people realise that survival is more important than money and power... the problem isn't that space is too expensive or that we can't develop the technology... the problem is simply human nature

      unless some robotic thing finds some kind of mineral that will make some corporation a lot of money (akin to the gold rushes of yesteryear or the oil rush of today), no government will bother investing in it. even the space "exploration" going on the surface of mars at the moment is probably a mineral hunt under the guise of searching for ET; the US government (that provides NASA with funding) doesn't give a fuck about ET... all they care about is money and power, and not for the US in general, just for themselves because many politicians have stock in the corporations that would benefit

      until the nuclear winter of post-ww3, when all the fat greedy politicians, welfare bludgers, corporate CEOs and stockholders die of starvation and there are no corporations, and government is actually run by the people for the people (for their very survival), "we" will never have any hope of ever getting to the moon or mars

    3. Re:Dead wrong by readin · · Score: 1

      Because once mankind masters being able to breathe nothing and piss ice-cubes? There's no stopping how far we can leave a trail of litter, across the galaxy! :-)

      If that's what it takes, we'll figure out how to do it through genetic engineering and/or artificial organs. Though there's an excellent chance it won't happen during our lifetime.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    4. Re:Dead wrong by X0563511 · · Score: 2

      The silver lining is that if someone DOES get things moving, the big governments/corporations are going to bust-ass to get up there too - if only to secure their own agendas.

      So long as we get out there - I'd prefer we didn't do it for greed or power, but it's more important that we get there.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    5. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      fair point

    6. Re:Dead wrong by arse+maker · · Score: 1

      The travel time to a highly unlikely journey to another star is hundreds of thousands of years. How they are related to anyone on earth by that time is hard to imagine. Let alone the ethical problem of forcing future generations to sit around on the journey while earth is left behind. If you used some sort of suspended animation then you would remove the ethics but would have no meaningful communications with them anymore.

      The notion of "possible" is rooted in life on earth. There are many things that are possible but completely impractical.

    7. Re:Dead wrong by Gerzel · · Score: 1

      I think he is forgetting a lot of biological imperative to spread ourselves around.

      If we take the effort to get off this rock and settle any single habitation anywhere else once we will do it again.

    8. Re:Dead wrong by timeOday · · Score: 1

      But we never drove a wagon to the moon. Our own bodies may be the "wagon" of interstellar travel, which I think is the point being made.

    9. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your fortune cookie would be: You read a lot of science fiction and over-apply it to the real world.

    10. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      No, we don't go to Ceti Alpha V because we might mistake it for Ceti Alpha VI, and get caught by Khan and have insects put in our brains.

    11. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Interestingly, even ultra-Utopian Star Trek says the same thing: in that mythos, humans have a horribly devastating World War III right about now, and the survivors are able to rebuild and one of them invents warp drive, attracting the attention of a much more rational alien species.

      As for mining minerals on Mars, it seems like it'd be easier and cheaper to just mine minerals on the Moon or on earth-crossing asteroids. Wasn't there recently some group of billionaires talking about starting a venture to develop asteroid-mining technology? Mars is very far away (even farther at some times than others, it's probably relatively close right now), but the moon never gets out of easy visual distance.

    12. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Not exactly. A trip to another star would be faster than you think, and certainly not hundreds of thousands of years (unless you're limited to today's chemical propulsion). With appropriate nuclear engines and constant acceleration halfway there (and then constant deceleration the other half), and a destination to one of our nearby neighbors esp. Alpha Centaurus, it could probably be done in a decade, maybe less. There's a catch, however: during that ~decade that the people on board experience, hundreds of years may pass on Earth.

    13. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      if i over-applied science fiction to the real world i imagine i would be a little more optimistic about getting to space... my pessimism is a little more pragmatic than the trekkies or wookies or whatever else science fiction fanatics like to call themselves

    14. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      depends on what they're looking for... from what i know the moon has lots of iron, but so does earth. maybe the geofreaks can chime in with what kinds of "unobtaniums" may possibly found on mars that aren't abundant at home

    15. Re:Dead wrong by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Oh come on, Alpha Centauri is only 4.3 lightyears away. You wouldn't get anywhere near the tau factor to 'lose' a couple centuries on that kinda flight. Decade at most.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    16. Re:Dead wrong by tsotha · · Score: 1

      Yes, history has proven when there's a profit motive we're willing to explore and colonize distant places where we can live off the land.

      It's going to be hundreds of years before we colonize mars.

    17. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If history has proven anything, if it's possible for humans to go somewhere, They will sit around on their fat asses until someone else is about to outmaneuver them. Then they'll send some poor ill-equipped, underfunded soul on a wild goose chase and see if he makes it back alive.

      Then they'll send some more.

      Earth is going to get a lot more crowded before our gold hunting pioneers go anywhere.

    18. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      depends on what they're looking for... from what i know the moon has lots of iron, but so does earth. maybe the geofreaks can chime in with what kinds of "unobtaniums" may possibly found on mars that aren't abundant at home

      well, there's Helium...

    19. Re:Dead wrong by 0111+1110 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You do realize that it only takes a year of constant acceleration at a puny 1 G acceleration to reach the speed of light, right? Constant acceleration is an unlikely scenario for this reason. With an ideal energy source a manned trip to Alpha Centauri A would probably consist of about 10 months of 1 G acceleration to start approaching the point where the energy requirements for further acceleration toward c become too great due to the ship's increasing relativistic mass. A few years of gliding. And then another 10 months of deceleration. Obviously 2G accelerations would result in less than 6 months each of acceleration and deceleration for around a year of engine use and 4 years of gliding, but the humans onboard would be awfully uncomfortable trying to live at 2 G for 6 months at a time. Robotic missions could probably just accelerate at around 12 G for a month in each direction and glide the rest of the way.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    20. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It also depends on what you want to do with it, and how much you need. There isn't actually that much iron on Earth. There's ridiculous amounts of iron in the Earth, but not on it, as geological processes over billions of years have forced most it it into the mantle and core; I believe most of the iron ore we use now is actually meteoric in origin.

      Also, iron is heavy stuff, so if you want to use the iron for, say, building space stations or space craft or moon habitats or whatever, it's a lot less energy-intensive to just get the iron from an asteroid or on the Moon, rather than mining it here on the Earth and then lifting it out of our gravity well.

      I have no idea what's abundant on Mars, however, and I'm curious about that as well. This might not even be well known yet.

    21. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Doesn't that depend on how fast your acceleration is?

    22. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Yes, these sound like the numbers I had read somewhere before for such a hypothetical trip with a drive system that could provide that sort of acceleration (1g). What would be the travel times (in Earth's reference frame) of both the 1g human trip and the 12g robotic trip?

      Assuming you could somehow build an engine to provide 12g acceleration for that long, I wonder if it'd be possible to send humans there at that speed, but using cryonics/suspended animation?

    23. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do realize that it only takes a year of constant acceleration at a puny 1 G acceleration to reach the speed of light, right?

      Last time I checked, nothing with mass could reach the speed of light.

      Something that barely has mass (ie/eg some/all neutrinos) can almost attain the speed of light. They get so close that it is almost indistinguishable from photons as regard speed.

      Anything with appreciable mass (ie/eg more massive than a light atom, but not much more massive) is limited to fairly closely approaching light speed, but never attaining it. Not as closely as the conjectured neutrino with mass, but still pretty close.

      And something with useful mass (ie/eg more massive than, say, a pine cone) really couldn't even get close to light speed.

      Remember, mass and energy are different forms of each other. But the conversion's a bitch.

      Maybe the Standard Model has changed, but I don't know how I missed that.

    24. Re:Dead wrong by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      What would be the travel times (in Earth's reference frame) of both the 1g human trip and the 12g robotic trip?

      Well the robot saves around 4 months of acceleration at each end for a total of 8 months at higher speed. I'd guess that you'd save something like 3-5 months of travel time to Alpha Centauri A. It does make for an interesting calculus problem though. Saving a few months out of a 4-5 year trip doesn't seem all that significant to me and Alpha Centauri is the best case scenario for showing benefit of higher accelerations. Think of a trip to Gliese 581 20.3 light years away. Shortening a 25 year trip by a a few months is even less important. Or consider the closest known pulsar, PSR J0108-1431, around 424 light years away. I don't think future interstellar space travelers will bother with accelerations higher than 1 G. It may not even be worth doing with robots since it creates a lot more stress on the ship requiring a more massive, stronger structure. In practice, with ideal energy sources at least, less than 1 G accelerations would probably be preferred by the crew. Less time at zero G. With current technology there is one huge advantage to the higher accelerations possible with unmanned craft. Nuclear pulse propulsion is more practical that way. It's easier and less expensive to build a short shock absorber than a long one.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    25. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I think you misunderstood; I'm asking what the travel times are in Earth's reference frame, not the spacecraft's. That is, if the ship travels there, and turns around and comes back, how much time has elapsed on Earth when it arrives home?

      Suppose we've invented highly effective suspended animation, so you don't age at all during the trip. So you take a trip to Alpha Centauri A (either with 1g or 12g acceleration), spend a few years puttering around there exploring whatever planets there are, and get bored and decide to come home because there's nothing there to be terraformed; when you get home, how many years will have passed on Earth?

    26. Re:Dead wrong by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      I guess I should have added a disclaimer about not actually being able to reach the speed of light itself. The point was that it would take about a year at 1 G if you could reach it and that it would still take about the same amount of time to reach .93c or whatever the highest practical speed is with a hypothetical ideal energy source. And before you point out that the energy source would have to output larger and larger amounts of energy in a non-linear fashion in order to maintain a constant acceleration of 9.8 m/s^2 of an increasingly massive object I am aware of that. Now I want to calculate how low your acceleration would have to be in order to actually accelerate/decelerate continuously for a travel time of 5 years to Alpha Centauri A. Another good calculus problem. If you assume an ideal energy source the increasing power necessary to generate the increasing force to propel an increasingly massive object can be ignored.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    27. Re:Dead wrong by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      But that is like saying "And once we grow wings we won't need airplanes!" because the simple fact is we really haven't had much luck coming up with anything since WWII.

      We are still using chemical rockets which take incredible amounts of fuel to just get off this rock, I mean have you ever seen how fricking huge a Saturn V really is? And that was just to go to the moon which in space terms is practically in your living room. To build a ship using conventional rockets to just take 4 people to Jupiter and back the thing would have to be so damned huge the costs would be more than any one country or even a group of countries would be willing to pay.

      So yes, if we come up with FTL or something that can push our butts that kind of distance while weighing almost nothing? Then sure we'll be out there. But the simple fact is the robot weighs very little, it doesn't need food, water, air, toilets, and oh yeah its going on a one way trip so that's half the fuel costs right there. Frankly now that the cold war is over I'd be amazed if we even go to Mars as the chemical rocket is just too damned costly and the amount of supplies you'd need to bring is just too damned huge with current tech.

      Hate to be a bummer, hell I love Star trek too, but logically you just can't do it with what we've got and I've not seen any country sinking the insane amount of R&D into space required to make the next leap since the cold war ended. Not to mention I doubt any country would see it as good PR to pack up a few of their people and send them on a one way trip, which with current tech that's what it would most likely be.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    28. Re:Dead wrong by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Your tau factor is your percentage of the speed of light. The lower the tau, the faster you're moving. Keep in mind that the total percieved time is also dependent on the distance travelled. 4.3 light-years? Assume constant accelleration at 1gravity (10 meters/sec/sec). About a year after launch, you're nearing lightspeed and you have a decent tau. Coast for 3.something years, flip, decellerate for 1 year at 1 gravity. Total trip is about 5 & a half, 6 years. Perceived time is on the order of 2-2.5 years.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    29. Re:Dead wrong by dryeo · · Score: 4, Informative

      On a trip to Alpha Centauri, to take advantage of relativity, you'd pretty well need 1 G of acceleration. At 1 G for a year you'd be close to light speed and not even 25% there. A few more months ship time and it would be time to slow down. Perhaps 3 years ship time and 7 years Earth time. (Numbers pulled out of my ass but fairly close).
      Any less acceleration and you're not going to get much of an advantage from relativity. Any faster acceleration would be uncomfortable but even with inertia dampers so you can accelerate to 99+% of light speed instantly, it'll still mean less then 5 years passing on the Earth.
      That 1G acceleration helps much more on longer trips, 30 light years only takes perhaps a year more ship time and still only 33 years pass on Earth.
      There was a chart around that I can't find right now that showed trip times, if you just accelerate all the way it was something like 30 years to Andromeda and only 70 years ship time to the edge of the Universe. Of course by the time you got there the edge would be 27 Billion light years further away.
      One big problem is how do you protect your ship? At 90% C, hitting a grain of sand would be deadly and at 99.99999999% of C, light itself gets pretty energetic, little well a molecule.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    30. Re:Dead wrong by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Ack! I hate when I screw that up. Your tau factor is 1 minus the percentage of the speed of light. If you're right up there within 1%, your tau will be 0.01. Divide the time units you're measuring by the tau to see how much elapsed time has passed at 'rest'. For instance, a year spent at a tau of 0.01 would translate to 100 years elapsed time at rest. For a 3.3 lightyear cruise (half a lightyear to get to a tau of 0.01, half a light year to 'brake' to at rest from 4.3 light years) is about 0.033 years subjective, or 12 days.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    31. Re:Dead wrong by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 0

      Because once mankind masters being able to breathe nothing and piss ice-cubes? There's no stopping how far we can leave a trail of litter, across the galaxy! :-)

      If that's what it takes, we'll figure out how to do it through genetic engineering and/or artificial organs.

       
      If generations upon generations of human species are put through genetic engineering, the result will be something that might be able to live on methane but they can no longer be known as "Homo Sapiens Sapiens" anymore, can they?
       

      --
      Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    32. Re:Dead wrong by Intrepid+imaginaut · · Score: 1

      I agree for a couple of reasons, first is that he's overestimating the engineering challenges in getting to and staying on Mars, and underestimating the technical difficulty of reaching other stars in any shape, to say nothing of downloading human minds into computers. Also I'm not sure why he's fixated on Mars, the fertile plains of space are the asteroids.

    33. Re:Dead wrong by 0111+1110 · · Score: 3, Informative

      I think I'm still misunderstanding you. If the reference frame is Earth and you are not considering time dilation or the elapsed time from the POV of the space traveler then the total elapsed time would just depend on the average speed of the ship and the amount of time he spent "puttering around".

      Or perhaps you want to consider time dilation. I've always like the Lorentz time dilation equation: T = To / sqrt(1 - (v^2/c^2)) where T is the elapsed time for a fixed reference frame observer on Earth, To is the elapsed time for the moving clock or person, and v is the constant or (roughly) average velocity of the ship (or the clock that is in motion wrt the fixed reference frame).

      Assume that you have a ship that quickly accelerates to 0.93c (so that the acceleration time is negligible) with an average velocity of 0.9c. It would take a photon 40.6 years to make a round trip to Gliese 581. The ship is traveling 10% slower and will take 10% longer for a trip time of 44.66 years. That is how much time will have elapsed for clocks on Earth. That's T. So what is the elapsed time To for the traveler? You could use this time dilation calculator or just plug and chug.

      So T = 44.66 years and v=0.9(299,792,458 m/s). The radical becomes 0.43589. So 44.66 = To / 0.43589 or To = 44.66 * 0.43589 = 19.466 years or around 19 years and 6 months.

      At a more realistic average speed for current abilities with a nuclear pulse propulsion system of .05c the trip would take 20 times longer than a photon or 812 years from earth clocks. So T = 812 years and v=(.05)(299,792,458 m/s). The radical becomes 0.99875. So 812 = To / 0.99875. To = 812(.99875) = 810.984 years. Just one year less time will have elapsed for the astronaut's ship in that case.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    34. Re:Dead wrong by MaskedSlacker · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You do realize that it only takes a year of constant acceleration at a puny 1 G acceleration to reach the speed of light, right?

      Welp, someone fails Relativity forever.

    35. Re:Dead wrong by DarwinSurvivor · · Score: 1

      and oh yeah its going on a one way trip so that's half the fuel costs right there.

      WAY more than half because when you double your travel distance you need more fuel which increases the weight, which increases the fuel requirements, which increases the weight, which increases the fuel requirements, which .....

    36. Re:Dead wrong by grep_rocks · · Score: 1

      Yes but how do you get one year of 1g acceleration to get to 99% the speed of light - I believe you need an amount of antimatter roughly equal to the rest mass of you payload - considering an h-bomb only produces the equivalent of 1g of energy that is a whole fucking lot of h-bombs for any reasonable payload it gets even worse when you have to take into the weight of the bomb which causes a limit of something like 10% the speed of light - even discussing 1g acceleration for a year is bullshit because you have to talk about thousands of tons of antimatter

    37. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have no idea what's abundant on Mars

      Rust.

      If you have virtually infinite amounts of energy you can get all the iron and oxygene you ever wanted.

    38. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Assuming you could somehow build an engine to provide 12g acceleration for that long, I wonder if it'd be possible to send humans there at that speed, but using cryonics/suspended animation?

      I don't know. There are some frogs that can survive freezing, they have a mechanism that starts their hearts when they thaw.
      What if we freeze one of those down, then crush the piece of ice that it is with 12G and then see if the slush will come to life when it is thawed?

      Or we can use G-suits up to 10G or so.
      For more extreme acceleration we need to fill the lungs with a liquid that has the same density as our bodies.
      It seems unlikely to find a suitable liquid.

    39. Re:Dead wrong by k8to · · Score: 1

      Well.. the proposal was with some 'ideal energy source' that provides infinite energy, so the hbomb and antimatter commentary (while accurate) doesn't really respond to the proposal.

      But even with such mythical energy source, you still need to PUSH against something to accelerate. So you still need some hunk of matter to pew pew out your spaceship at relativistic speeds, constantly. In other words, to do this kind of acceleration, you still need to start multiplying your ship's mass by a factor of 3 at the very least. And you need some ideal way of converting it to acceleratable particles.. etc...

      --
      -josh
    40. Re:Dead wrong by dak664 · · Score: 1

      You need to eject momentum but not necessarily mass. Light has momentum but not mass, and collimated black body radiation theoretically gives the highest possible specific impulse of c http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_photonic_rocket, It would require a prodigious amount of energy, e,g, very efficient conversion of mass into heat.

    41. Re:Dead wrong by khallow · · Score: 1

      the reason why we haven't gone anywhere in space is that we're drowning in greed and corruption

      Well, the government agency approach has drowned in that. No reason a better structured approach by different parties with more coherent motivations couldn't succeed.

      "we" haven't even really been to the moon... only a very small select few astronauts went on very short demonstration trips, in which each only went once, and all on a defense budget

      It is a fallacy to attempt to disprove a statement by shifting the semantics. It is fair however to point out what "being there" means.

      if we ever are to have any chance of getting anywhere in space, it will require a catastrophe that falls barely short of complete human extinction to make people realise that survival is more important than money and power...

      I've heard this fantasy before. Wouldn't it be a whole lot healthier to develop a belief system that doesn't require global disaster in order to be validated?

      unless some robotic thing finds some kind of mineral that will make some corporation a lot of money (akin to the gold rushes of yesteryear or the oil rush of today), no government will bother investing in it. even the space "exploration" going on the surface of mars at the moment is probably a mineral hunt under the guise of searching for ET; the US government (that provides NASA with funding) doesn't give a fuck about ET... all they care about is money and power, and not for the US in general, just for themselves because many politicians have stock in the corporations that would benefit

      You do realize that minerals exist off of Earth? And that minerals from Mars would sell just as well as minerals from Earth would. Frankly, I think a driver for space mining will be Earth-side regulation.

      until the nuclear winter of post-ww3, when all the fat greedy politicians, welfare bludgers, corporate CEOs and stockholders die of starvation and there are no corporations, and government is actually run by the people for the people (for their very survival), "we" will never have any hope of ever getting to the moon or mars

      The disasturbation fantasy rears its ugly little head again. You do realize that the "greedy" class is more likely to survive than the "people" class?

    42. Re:Dead wrong by dywolf · · Score: 2

      the biggest problem there is you have to forge the steel alloys from your iron in space. and so far there isnt a process for that. the earthbound process relies heavily on gravity. this is a thought experiment i've discussed with other people before. its a pretty interesting problem.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    43. Re:Dead wrong by robertinventor · · Score: 1

      Good point. First thought: after your first space habitat you have gravity to make new space habitats. So first one would be the hardest, maybe many components would need to be supplied from Earth but you could get the heaviest stuff from NEOs. Also remember you can often have plastic too, or glass or indeed maybe things that work like concrete, in place of steel.. So might need to develop new ways of working with materials and new materials. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_manufacturing#Manufacturing

    44. Re:Dead wrong by JBaustian · · Score: 1

      I have no idea what's abundant on Mars, however, and I'm curious about that as well.



      The fossilized bones of the Martians, and the ruins of their cities and civilization.
    45. Re:Dead wrong by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Surely someone could come up with a new process that doesn't require much gravity; they just haven't done so because no one's needed to. Also, if we're mining it on the moon, maybe we'd just build the steel forges on the moon too; the moon has gravity, albeit only 1/6g. Would that not be enough for the current process to work? How about other metals, do they have the same problem?

    46. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spin your forging ship - "gravity" attained.

    47. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      relies heavily on gravity

      centrifuge

    48. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      No reason a better structured approach by different parties with more coherent motivations couldn't succeed

      certainly, but what better strucutred approach is there? as soon as any kind of formal "organization" forms, in our current economic and political environment, motivations turn toward financing... i have one idea but i don't know who could make it work; a non-profit organization set up with the ultimate goal of establishing a huge space station at lagrange point L1 could possibly work if it was funded by an ever increasing number of subsidiaries run like profitable enterprises in all industries, supported by mass-marketing to leverage consumer sentiment (of course price must be competitive also, but without any need for a profit margin that should be possible)

      Wouldn't it be a whole lot healthier to develop a belief system that doesn't require global disaster in order to be validated?

      healthier maybe, but unlikely... believing in something doesn't make it so

      You do realize that minerals exist off of Earth? And that minerals from Mars would sell just as well as minerals from Earth would. Frankly, I think a driver for space mining will be Earth-side regulation.

      not sure what you were getting at here... i was referring to minerals on mars that would be rare on earth, and such mineral is likely something that doesn't have widespread use yet or there would already be extra-terrestrial mining operations

      the "greedy" class is more likely to survive than the "people" class

      a fallacy of the greedy class to be sure... unfortunately for them they have no idea how much they rely not only on the people class, but on society in general... in fact the whole class system depends on society. after ww3, there would be no class structure because (assuming a nuclear winter scenario) there would be no more society. q: how do we define a wealthy person? a: someone who has a lot of financial wealth... q: so what if the value of every currency in the world plummeted to zero (except for paper money being a useful fire fuel)? a: wealthy people wouldn't be wealthy because there would be nothing they could get with their useless financial wealth likely to have been obliterated along with the electronic financial systems that contained it... it would be survival of the fittest, literally, and wealthy people are (not in all cases, but generally) unfit to survive without the support of a societal structure. most people in developed countries would struggle. those most likely to srvive would be african/indian/aboriginal tribes who are skilled in living off the land. those that formed and connected with militias in developed countries would survive for a while (stealing, pillaging, etc), but once the existing canned food supply was gone, guns and mob rule would be pretty useless.

    49. Re:Dead wrong by khallow · · Score: 1

      certainly, but what better strucutred approach is there? as soon as any kind of formal "organization" forms, in our current economic and political environment, motivations turn toward financing... i have one idea but i don't know who could make it work; a non-profit organization set up with the ultimate goal of establishing a huge space station at lagrange point L1 could possibly work if it was funded by an ever increasing number of subsidiaries run like profitable enterprises in all industries, supported by mass-marketing to leverage consumer sentiment (of course price must be competitive also, but without any need for a profit margin that should be possible)

      The profit motive provides a fine focus. You don't need to overthink it. We have things of value in space. The catch is that they currently cost too much to access and retrieve. There's no reason to expect that to always be the case with modern technology development.

      Wouldn't it be a whole lot healthier to develop a belief system that doesn't require global disaster in order to be validated?

      healthier maybe, but unlikely... believing in something doesn't make it so

      Physician, heal thyself. After all, believing in something doesn't make it so.

      You do realize that minerals exist off of Earth? And that minerals from Mars would sell just as well as minerals from Earth would. Frankly, I think a driver for space mining will be Earth-side regulation.

      not sure what you were getting at here... i was referring to minerals on mars that would be rare on earth, and such mineral is likely something that doesn't have widespread use yet or there would already be extra-terrestrial mining operations

      Well, rare earths aren't for the most part rare on Earth. Yet China has obtained a near monopoly on a good portion of them due in large part to its disregard for pollution.

      a fallacy of the greedy class to be sure... unfortunately for them they have no idea how much they rely not only on the people class, but on society in general... in fact the whole class system depends on society.

      Ok, so basically you're saying that a global disaster would wipe out the parasitic greedy class because it would at the least, lose enough of its hosts that they couldn't keep going. Guess I can't see anything wrong with that idea, except that such a parasite can survive on a lot fewer hosts.

      so what if the value of every currency in the world plummeted to zero (except for paper money being a useful fire fuel)? a: wealthy people wouldn't be wealthy because there would be nothing they could get with their useless financial wealth

      Well, there are other forms of wealth such as knowledge, resources, and relationships. Frankly, it wouldn't be that hard to create a feudal estate. In this alleged fall of society, the rich person (especially, if they had some warning or planning) could bring their most trusted employees plus hire a number of competent military personnel.

      I imagine that building a comfortable and secure fortress would earn you a lot of lifelong goodwill from your fellow well-fed survivors. Transitioning from greedy businessperson to feudal lord in some isolated location isn't an easy transition, but I bet it's a lot more achievable than people trying to survive in a big city which lost its food supply.

    50. Re:Dead wrong by spauldo · · Score: 1

      Have you researched the purity of iron in nickel-iron meteorites?

      I know there wouldn't be much oxides, but I wonder how mixed the metals and carbons are. You might be able to achieve a usable metal just by melting it down and casting it, then moderating the temperature to forge it.

      (I'm not a metallurgist, I'm just curious - I've often thought that we could do great things in space if we could get a bunch of steel up there.)

      --
      Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach either, do tech support.
    51. Re:Dead wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Centrifugal effect should substitute. Would require a slightly different furnace shape though. Big, big structures and lots of reaction mass to get started though.

    52. Re:Dead wrong by crutchy · · Score: 1

      The profit motive provides a fine focus. You don't need to overthink it.

      what is there to overthink? as a capitalist company, the objective is profit, but profit also leaves the company, so the company isn't really about selling/producing/achieving anything... its just about making profit. a non-profit on the other hand gets to keep its "profit" (revenue less expenses) and use it to achieve things, and doesn't need to concern itself with shareholder satisfaction. even lockheed martin's CEO has conceded that wall street will never invest in any promising new technologies (in the context of venturestar)

      Physician, heal thyself. After all, believing in something doesn't make it so.

      i sensed a bit of a rhetoric smart ass tone there, and i'm not sure exactly what your point was, but in any case physicians don't always know how to heal everything, in fact most doctors and surgeons lose plenty of patients in their careers... a doctor doesn't need to believe they can heal... its just the objective... they merely use the best available knowledge, tools and drugs they have access to to give the patient the best chance, which is no guarantee by any means

      there are no doubt plenty of greedy wealthy people that would survive a nuclear winter and do well, but i think (and it is generalizing) that greedy people used to and dependent on a societal class structure would lack the skills and motivation for basic survival... for example, could you imagine britney spears killing and eating a snake? or maybe bill gates walking miles to find food? he may be able to rally people to work for him, but no easier than you or I, because he would have nothing more of value to barter with than you or I... all of his billions would be worth nothing without the current financial system that his wealth depends on

    53. Re:Dead wrong by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Nobody knows. I'm hoping that Curiosity will send some data back that has them scratching their heads and saying "what the hell is this???"

      I'm not too optimistic though. It seems that Mars is probably not as alien as we thought (well, except for the lack of an atmosphere).

    54. Re:Dead wrong by khallow · · Score: 1

      as a capitalist company, the objective is profit, but profit also leaves the company, so the company isn't really about selling/producing/achieving anything... its just about making profit. a non-profit on the other hand gets to keep its "profit" (revenue less expenses) and use it to achieve things

      So does the profit making company. They usually invest a considerable fraction of their income in new infrastructure or ventures.

      there are no doubt plenty of greedy wealthy people that would survive a nuclear winter and do well, but i think (and it is generalizing) that greedy people used to and dependent on a societal class structure would lack the skills and motivation for basic survival...

      Compared to who? "Regular" people would have the same problem, but without the considerable wealth.

      As to your comments about global disaster, I just don't think it's as common as you'd like or would have the positive benefits you think it should have. That's why I think waiting for a global disaster is an unusually unproductive thing to do.

  2. Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It seems this person has never heard of the speed-of-light limit to communication delays....

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    1. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      But his lack of knowledge makes speculation so much more fun!

    2. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Didn't stop OnLive from using Tachyons for its servic... oh wait.

    3. Re:Utter BS by postbigbang · · Score: 1

      People looked at the moon for thousands of years. Eventually we got there. They look at the stars the same way. The speed of light is currently, in certainty, the limitation to go the stars without generations of generations in a temporary world, seeking them out.

      Is FTL possible? People thought that a moon trip was impossible. We still dream.

      --
      ---- Teach Peace. It's Cheaper Than War.
    4. Re:Utter BS by icebike · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Communication delays are far from the largest obstacle. You might remember sailing ships of early explorers were on multi-year voyages with little hope of communication for much of the time. HMS Beagle's famous voyage was 5 years long, with only occasional stops at foreign ports. People can deal with communication delays, both in robotic systems and manned systems.

      More to the point is that people aren't as willing to take 5 year voyages that are likely to be one way. Any place Beagle could land other than the antarctic was as likely to be habitable, with eventual visitors. Not so while heading to Alpha Centauri. Even a one way trip to Mars is an unreasonable undertaking (although not without many who claim they are willing to do so).

      We need vastly bigger ships and better engines, large enough to produce enough of its own food for 20 or 30 years. We need a way to fund this adventure, which will not likely come from a divided world, or a world where religious nut jobs consider such adventures as "showing up God".

      So technological breakthrough is the best bet, and nobody is currently dogging that bird. It will probably happen by accidental discovery.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    5. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It seems this person has never heard of the speed-of-light limit to communication delays....

      "People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it."

      "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."

      even you can't be sure that ftl communication is impossible... you just believe it because you were told that it was the case and because of peer pressure (if you say otherwise you're afraid your friends and colleagues will think you're a kook)

    6. Re:Utter BS by poly_pusher · · Score: 1

      More like this person has heard of quantum entanglement and how it could potentially be exploited for remote missions.

    7. Re:Utter BS by Charliemopps · · Score: 2, Interesting

      FTL is not possible. Period.
      In fact, even traveling at a significant fraction of the speed of light is impossible unless we discover some new, amazing lightweight power source. Short of that, I doubt we'll ever get faster than 5% the speed of light... I think what people fail to understand is just how fast that is... 5% the speed of light is incredibly fast.

      It's fun to read Sci-Fi books, but FTL is not possible irrelevant of any advances we make in science. If you think it IS in fact possible, then you fundamentally do not understand what the speed of light is, why it is, or how space-time works.

      Now the whole, freeze people/hyper-sleep thing, travel for 4000 years and wake them up... THAT'S possible (or at least, not impossible from what we know about science at this point.)

    8. Re:Utter BS by Algae_94 · · Score: 1

      I think he was saying the dude is full of it because it's not feasible to be "virtual explorers interacting with the environments of distant worlds" when the lag time for your interactions are minutes, hours, days or longer because that's how long the communications will take to go back and forth.

    9. Re:Utter BS by Baloroth · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's fun to read Sci-Fi books, but FTL is not possible irrelevant of any advances we make in science. If you think it IS in fact possible, then you fundamentally do not understand what the speed of light is, why it is, or how space-time works.

      The thing is: no one really knows how space-time works (and we probably never will, not completely). We have a model and theories that fits the observations well (although not, of course, perfectly). That model states FTL is impossible using conventional means (read: any way we know of right now). To assume that that model is complete or perfect is to misunderstand the nature of science. It may be, but we really don't and won't ever know for sure. The history of science is filled to the brim with obsolete models that were accurate by the best measures at the time (and, BTW, that includes now-ridiculous models like the geocentric theory), and there is very little reason to think this will turn out to be any different. In fact, we already have some reason to think it won't, although exactly how, we have no idea.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    10. Re:Utter BS by aitikin · · Score: 1

      Just because a very smart individual showed us logic stating that it's impossible does not mean that it truly is impossible. That being said, I do believe that he is correct, I'm merely pointing out that there have, in the past, be vetted scientific theories that have been disproven and people had their world turned upside down on certain topics.

      To add to that argument, whatever happened to the sound barrier being an impossible breaking point? (yes, apples and oranges, we had things that had broken the speed of sound (bullets), but still, it's worth noting.)

      --
      "Don't meddle in the affairs of a patent dragon, for thou art tasty and good with ketchup." ~ohcrapitssteve
    11. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Neutrinos seem to have missed the memo too. They have mass (confirmed by the neutrino oscillation experiments) yet they defiantly propagate through space with the speed of light (supernova 1987a experiment).

    12. Re:Utter BS by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Who says we have to do the full FTL Monty?

      Hell, even if we just get close, time dilation will make it possible to go a hell of a long ways, and will stretch out lifetimes enough to make it worthwhile. If we can squeeze out 0.95c, that shit comes out to a bit over 2x the average human lifespan back here on Earth. A 60 ly trip takes only 26 years to the clocks and travelers on the ship, which is easily doable for a 2-3 generation crew.

      BTW, with a little effort atop current technology? Using the Sun as a big-assed gravity slingshot with a solar sail boost on the way out has the potential to get us up to 10%. An ion engine with a moderate amount of fuel has the potential to boost that even higher. Reaching 95% isn't impossible - just incredibly hard to do with what we know and have right now.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    13. Re:Utter BS by bbelt16ag · · Score: 1

      ok, yes probably we will go to the stars, but first we got survive what we have done to this one. we have far too many problems e have yet to deal with. In the next 100 years if we don't kill our selves or destroy 90% of the earth, we will be VERY lucky!

      --
      NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER GIVE UP! "No limitations, no boundaries, there is no reason for them."
    14. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I have a few ways to fix the thinking that resulted in the current conundrum:
      - Recognize that reality does not conform to the mathematics of a formula that was only meant to explain how much energy an object contains, and especially that dividing by 0 does not equal infinity, but merely that the result is unknown and results beyond will break the formula rather than being impossible because of the formula.
      - Understand that Space and Time are not real, physical things, merely concepts to allow humans to categorize the difference between here and there and now and now (although time travel being impossible does put a damper on at least one avenue toward FTL).
      - Accept that light itself does not transfer information, merely that it provides data from its state at the time it is received, and that data from states can be read from other sources that do not conform to light's states.

      An actual possible solution to the entire acceleration paradigm could be to record how long it takes light, after an experiment where it is slowed to the level of vehicle speeds, to accelerate back to light speed. I've tried and failed to find any information on that, but from descriptions of the experiments the light seems to return to light speed "immediately".

    15. Re:Utter BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      If you think it IS in fact possible, then you fundamentally do not understand what the speed of light is, why it is, or how space-time works.

      Bullshit. You don't know how space-time works, and no one on this planet knows how space-time works. We humans don't even understand how gravity works. We have no clue why we don't drift off into space, instead of being held to the ground. All we know is there's an invisible force and it correlates with mass.

      Saying that FTL is "impossible" when you haven't the faintest clue about how gravity or space-time work is pure idiocy.

    16. Re:Utter BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      You don't even need multiple generations, you just need to invent "hypersleep" or "suspended animation". There's already been research in this area, with cryogenics.

    17. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I understand what the speed of light is and the nature of space time as well as any human can with our current knowledge of physics and mathematics. Which is horribly incomplete. What I also know is that in general, everyone who has predicted a technological feat as being utterly impossible has been proven wrong, usually in an embarrassingly short period of time. I will trust that constant more than any speed limit imposed by the infantile understanding of the universe we have at our disposal.

      I also think it is rather intellectually lazy for anyone who claims to have a significant knowledge of science to claim that their understanding is so flawless that even if our civilization grows and endures for 100,000 years that we will never know significantly more than we do now, when our current knowledge is the product only 100-150 years of serious methodical investigation. I think what these lazy persons fail to understand is just how deep the rabbit hole of knowledge goes and just how shallow our current depth is.

    18. Re:Utter BS by KingMotley · · Score: 2

      FTL is not possible. Period.

      There were once a lot of really smart people that said sailing around the earth was impossible too, and they proved it -- because the earth was flat.

      All it takes is one of today's assumptions to be proven wrong or inaccurate, and suddenly things that were once thought possible become possible. Saying something is flat out impossible, is usually wrong. It may just take a few hundred years to prove it, but it'll get proven false.

    19. Re:Utter BS by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      No doubt. That light-speed lag is a bitch. Hell, even the round trip to geosynch orbit for satellite internet is too much for some VOIP customers, and that's about half a second.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    20. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I submit to you that if FTL were possible, light would have figured that out by now.

    21. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      i submit to him, if a few more rocks drop on his head, he'll figure out that gravity thing too!

    22. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He was talking about obstacles to virtual explorers without physical transportation or presence, so no, the fact that people aren't willing to take one-way voyages is not "more to the point" since it's not an obstacle to virtual explorers.

    23. Re:Utter BS by NemoinSpace · · Score: 1

      I submit that both Newton and Einstein spent a lot less money and a lot more thought on their theories than scientists today. In their defense, the scientists of today have to compete with blowhards who thing that the laws of physics are based on the law of overwhelming popular corroboration.

    24. Re:Utter BS by 0111+1110 · · Score: 2

      Communication delays are far from the largest obstacle. You might remember sailing ships of early explorers were on multi-year voyages with little hope of communication for much of the time. HMS Beagle's famous voyage was 5 years long, with only occasional stops at foreign ports. People can deal with communication delays, both in robotic systems and manned systems.

      Communication delays in robotic systems are completely different. If it takes you 5 years before telling a robot to avoid falling into that hole 10 feet away that's a very different sort of problem. One that you haven't addressed with your sailing ship analogy.

      More to the point is that people aren't as willing to take 5 year voyages that are likely to be one way. Any place Beagle could land other than the antarctic was as likely to be habitable, with eventual visitors. Not so while heading to Alpha Centauri. Even a one way trip to Mars is an unreasonable undertaking (although not without many who claim they are willing to do so).

      Unreasonable to you maybe. Not all human beings are cowards. Many long distant ship voyages and pretty much any trip to Antarctica in the early 20th century may as well have been one way. Ditto for quite a few high altitude mountain ascents. The kind of adventurers and explorers who are willing to make such trips are not afraid of risk.

      FWIW, I would be willing to go on a one way Mars mission. Even one without any resupply missions where my death was certain in a matter of months or a year or two. To get to actually walk on a new planet is more of a motivation than you seem to realize. Hell, there are probably quite a few people who would be willing to make a one way trip even to the moon. The one way trip thing is a red herring anyway. Just build the equivalent of a spaceship on the ground with a closed life support system and resupply every year or two with robotic craft.

      We need vastly bigger ships and better engines, large enough to produce enough of its own food for 20 or 30 years.

      We do need giant ships for interstellar missions, one of the great difficulties in that undertaking. Ship size is not an insurmountable obstacle. A giant ships can be assembled at a Lagrange point station so that it doesn't have to escape the earth's or even the moon's gravity well. It does have to escape the sun's powerful grip however, which will require a huge amount of energy. For interplanetary missions with travel times of under a decade we can just resupply the bases at regular intervals with unmanned supply ships, interplanetary ferries based at Earth-Moon Lagrange points and resupplied either from a lunar base or from traditional rockets or perhaps some kind of rail gun technology. No breakthroughs in technology are needed.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    25. Re:Utter BS by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      If we ever have technology capable of destroying the earth we will probably also have the technology to travel to the stars at speeds of at least .25c, allowing interstellar journeys within a human lifetime. Of course if we destroy the planet as soon as we discover this incredible new energy source we won't have the chance. Unless we had already hedged our bets by putting viable breeding populations off world.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    26. Re:Utter BS by tbird81 · · Score: 1

      Bullshit. You don't know how space-time works, and no one on this planet knows how space-time works. We humans don't even understand how gravity works.

      I know right. And then there's those fucking magnets...!!

    27. Re:Utter BS by tbird81 · · Score: 1

      FTL is not possible. Period.

      There were once a lot of really smart people that said sailing around the earth was impossible too, and they proved it -- because the earth was flat.

      They were not smart people. They were religious people.

    28. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also we need to figure out how to not die from all of the radiation that our cozy earth protects us from.

    29. Re:Utter BS by 0111+1110 · · Score: 0

      Just because a very smart individual showed us logic stating that it's impossible does not mean that it truly is impossible.

      Huh? What smart individual? What logic? You are not referring to the article I assume where neither intelligence nor logic existed.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    30. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, I believe FTL commonication is impossible because I've seen easy-to-understand logical proofs of why it results in irresolvable paradoxes.

    31. Re:Utter BS by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      Yeah and if traveling faster than the speed of sound was possible birds would do it.

      Just because it has not been observed yet does not mean it is not possible. Regardless of this it is possible to do interstellar travel using known physics with nuclear pulse propulsion which was what the article was all about.

    32. Re:Utter BS by zippthorne · · Score: 2

      Flat earth is a reasonable approximation over small distances, but, more importantly, at no time during which sailing on the open sea was a thing, did anyone smart believe that the earth was flat. In fact a non-flat earth was a critical assumption required for the calculations necessary to navigate on the open ocean.

      If you're referring to the Columbus voyage, the smart people held that the earth's diameter was too great to make the trip in the vessels of the time, as they wouldn't be able to store sufficient supplies to reach the destination. Those people were right.

      The only reason that Columbus didn't die of mutiny and his crew of starvation, dehydration, or malnutrition was that there happened to be a huge, previously not well known land mass at right about the distance that Columbus thought the whole trip would be.

      FTL doesn't look very likely. We shouldn't count on it when making plans.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    33. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      wow that really makes you an expert then huh? we should all be paying homage to your spectacular intellectual insight that could never be proven wrong... just like your colleagues through that ages that used lots of fancy words and equations to prove that the world is flat and is the center of the universe

    34. Re:Utter BS by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Need a pretty good shield even at 10% of C.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    35. Re:Utter BS by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Any practical method of destroying the world that is used will also probably be used to destroy any viable breeding populations off-world. At that, any off-world breeding populations will probably be very easy to destroy.
      Considering how war-like mankind is, it is really hard to imagine off-world populations lasting long term when you consider how vulnerable they'd be.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    36. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      wow that really makes you an expert then huh? we should all be paying homage to your spectacular intellectual insight that could never be proven wrong... just like your colleagues through that ages that used lots of fancy words and equations to prove that the world is flat and is the center of the universe

      You are one smug son of a bitch, you know that?
        The problem is that FTL constitutes time travel, and breaks causality, and all your sci-fi lust won't wish it away. Either relativity is completely wrong (and we have more solid proof of it than any other theory in the history of science) or FTL is flat-out impossible. Sure there's no grand unified theory yet, but guess what? It won't overturn relativity, it'll just identify some small corner cases where it doesn't fit exactly, just as relativity did with newtonian physics. You ought to read Isaac Asimov's essay The Relativity of Wrong sometime. It explains very elegantly that while scientific progress has overturned old theories, the space in which the old theories were incorrect gets smaller and smaller every time as we approach an exact model of the universe.

    37. Re:Utter BS by Intrepid+imaginaut · · Score: 2

      In fact, even traveling at a significant fraction of the speed of light is impossible unless we discover some new, amazing lightweight power source.

      Antimatter could do it. No point in quoting the current costs for the stuff either, by the time we are in a position to manufacture vessels capable of reaching other stars, we will certainly have antimatter factories circling close to the sun.

    38. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sleep, fuck, hunt, eat, shit, piss is all there is to life.
      The sun must be God.
      There is one God.
      The earth is the centre of the universe.
      The earth is flat.
      You'll fall off the side if you travel too far.
      Surgery without pain is impossible.
      Gravity does not exist.
      The atom is indivisible.
      Faster travel than a horse/carriage is impossible.
      Electricity is impossible.
      Near instant communication is impossible.
      Communication beyond the horizon is impossible.
      Radio is impossible.
      Flying is impossible.
      Satellites are impossible.
      Spaceflight is impossible.
      Sub-atomic particles are indivisible.
      Man will die in space.
      The speed of sound cannot be broken.
      Man will die at speeds beyond 1000mph.
      Travel to the moon is impossible.
      Television is impossible.
      The atom bomb is impossible.
      Controlled nuclear fision for generating power is impossible.
      A human will never run faster than Ns for 100m.
      A human will never run faster than Nm for 1mile.
      Quantum mechanics is hokus pokus.
      Test tube babies are impossible.
      Antibiotics is impossible.
      640K is enough for anybody (or whatever he said).
      1MHz will never be exceeded.
      1GHz will never be exceeded. ...
      The Higgs boson does not exist. ...
      We'll never have a unified field theory.
      Cancer will never be cured.
      The curse of aging will never be cured.
      We'll never reach the stars.

      Your kind is the grit in the gears of humanity's evolution and progress.

      Fuck off and die so the real dreamers, inventors and doers can get on with the job and brush off parasites such as yourself.

    39. Re:Utter BS by Burz · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You are basically expecting the possibility to make perpetual motion machines, travel to the past and other breaches of the laws of thermodynamics that FTL implies.

      And the history of science is full of people experimenting outside of theoretical frameworks or models. Where is the evidence for FTL?

      What you're hoping for is really a supernatural conveyance (miracles) foretold by the 'prophets' of sci-fi in order to keep us entertained in the age of technological wonder. By clinging selectively to those narrative scraps in a sense of faith, what you're really doing is helping build the world's first religion where impossible things are hoped-for someday from a messiah known as "Technology".

      There is already a precursor to such a religion: Its called Prosperity Gospel and its (mostly American) proponents like to live large as a way to attract more souls to the "word of God". They have faith their God will provide the desired lifestyle which requires material profusion. What they are really doing is worshiping consumer technology / consumerism using the Christian God as a proxy. That God promises wealth accumulation and then a rapture where they escape the bonds of the Earth.

      Like being whisked away to eternal life in heaven, the vision of FTL travel is a difficult one to let go of if it underpins the stories you grew up with.

      Note that Einstein did not so much transcend old models, but added a whole new layer of descriptive detail to our observed universe. And most of that added detail looks an awful lot like constraints on what we can do. So if indeed there is little reason to think that future discoveries won't have the same impact as science past, then we are probably looking at a reification of the cosmic speed limit along with some other limiting surprises.

      If anything, FTL would be more compatible with Newtonian physics than what came after it. Come to think of it, a return to Newton would probably make a lot of theologians happy.

    40. Re:Utter BS by DarwinSurvivor · · Score: 1

      I'm not going to argue the "FTL is not possible thing", enough people already did. But do we really need FTL? Quantum entanglement and other similar theories are getting some pretty interesting results. It may not be too long before we are using it to send information LONG distances with little to no lag time. If we then figure out how to record the physical make-up of an object, store & transmit that information and re-create the object somewhere else, we could conceivably "teleport" wherever we need to go instead of "going" there. The biggest limitation would most likely be waiting for a "receiver" module to be sent to that location first.

    41. Re:Utter BS by grep_rocks · · Score: 1

      Really talking about FTL is like a saying evoloution might not be true - just as there are multiple lines of evidence for evoloution there are interlocking ideas about the structure of space time and causality which require a speed limit - sure maybe during the creation of the universe of in other areas of space time there might have been different fundamental constants - but basically one you start talking about FTL you are talking about time travel and being your own grandfather - the structure of the reality starts to fall apart

    42. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      You are one smug son of a bitch, you know that?

      not so smug as to assume i have a complete and unequivocally accurate understanding of the entire universe

    43. Re:Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 1

      There is no indication that entanglement could be used for communication. In fact it would break most of modern physics if possible.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    44. Re:Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Your assumptions are baseless and insulting. I actually read the theory. But maybe you are describing the process by which you try to "understand" science? Your quotations are infantile regarding the subject at hand. Obviously you have no clue at all what is being talked about.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    45. Re:Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 1

      You are basically smug, incompetent and delusional. Some things we know about this universe are very, very well tested and do fit theory very,very well. But it takes real insight and intelligence to see that, not your faked trashy imitation.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    46. Re:Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Then he has not understand that quantum entanglement is fundamentally unfit for communication. Which is mentioned basically all the times quantum entanglement is brought up. There really is no "potentially" here. If it could be used for FTL communication that whole theory breaks down and the theory is needed for it to be FTL over larger distances.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    47. Re:Utter BS by sydneyfong · · Score: 1

      I'm bored, so I'll reply.

      You should jump out of a 40 story building "because you are not so smug as to assume I have a complete and unequivocally accurate understanding of the entire universe".

      Who says you'll die from the impact? I can't say. For the rest of us, excuse us for not attempting to do things which have a 99.999999999+% chance of failure.

      --
      Don't quote me on this.
    48. Re:Utter BS by khallow · · Score: 1

      You might remember sailing ships of early explorers were on multi-year voyages with little hope of communication for much of the time. HMS Beagle's famous voyage was 5 years long, with only occasional stops at foreign ports. People can deal with communication delays, both in robotic systems and manned systems.

      What was the point of this example? The HMS Beagle started that voyage with a crew of 70 people. The communication lag was near instantaneous (because the people were there) not five years (because the people weren't in England).

      Friedman claims:

      humans in modern space systems will be virtual explorers interacting with the environments of distant worlds, but without the baggage of physical transportation or presence.

      He ignores communication lag.

    49. Re:Utter BS by dywolf · · Score: 1

      Why break the speed limit when you can just go around it?

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    50. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are too intellectual for this place, and certainly you are way over the head of Space Nutters. They refuse reality in any shape or form.

    51. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quantum entanglement does not allow FTL communication. This stems from a misunderstanding of how it works.

    52. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      crutchy, I can tell you were brought up in the self esteem generation. Never being told no, and always being told anything is possible. They lied to you.
      They lied to you because it was easier to fill your empty head with bullshit than to spend 15 years trying to teach you how to do basic math and science.
      I challenge you to show the maths of Eratosthenes which proves the earth a sphere. Lest you be revealed as on who simply regurgitates whatever has been pumped into his head. Should you even be able to copy and paste an equation from google, ( a task I doubt you are up to), we can then discuss why the speed of light will never be proven wrong. - At least by you.

    53. Re:Utter BS by AJWM · · Score: 1

      FTL is not possible. Period.

      Ah, a little knowledge is such a dangerous thing.

      If you think it IS in fact possible, then you fundamentally do not understand what the speed of light is, why it is, or how space-time works.

      On the contrary, your statement that it is not possible demonstrates your lack of understanding of how space-time works.

      Consider that shortly after the Big Bang, the universe was expanding faster than light. Now go read up on the Alcubierre metric and van den Broek's and others' lower-energy solutions to same. (Sure, Finazzi instability is a consideration, but by no means proven and there may be workarounds.)

      Granted, we're not talking about Newtonian 'accelerate through normal space to and beyond lightspeed' here. Just as well, because the energy requirements for that (if it could work at all, which it can't) are ridiculous.

      But flatly stating that "FTL is not possible. Period." reveals a profound ignorance and an utter failure of imagination.

      --
      -- Alastair
    54. Re:Utter BS by AJWM · · Score: 1

      The structure of reality never falls apart, only your perception of it.

      Reality is what it is. If FTL works (and to a degree we seem to have an existence proof that it does in the expansion of the early universe) and if it does imply time travel (it doesn't necessarily; it's a perception thing), then reality was always that way and we're just misunderstanding it.

      Perception is a fragile thing. You can build up an elaborate structure of "interlocking ideas about the structure of space time and causality which require a speed limit" -- and if that all comes tumbling down because of some new insight (wouldn't be the first time in physics by a long shot) it's not reality that was at fault.

      --
      -- Alastair
    55. Re:Utter BS by AJWM · · Score: 1

      In fact it would break most of modern physics if possible.

      An event (breaking then-modern physics) which seems to happen every couple of generations.

      Problem is the false alarms. There are a lot of possible inventions or interpretations of unusual phenomena which 'break modern physics', the trick is figuring out which are valid and which aren't, not in dismissing them all merely because they conflict with the teachings of the previous generation.

      --
      -- Alastair
    56. Re:Utter BS by AJWM · · Score: 1

      The problem is that FTL constitutes time travel, and breaks causality

      I've yet to see anyone spout this who really understood what they were talking about, rather than just parroting something they'd heard or read somewhere.

      The fact is it doesn't, and causality is overrated.

      In an absolute objective reference frame* (wait for it!) mere FTL doesn't constitute time travel. Faster than infinite speed would, sure, but not something as slow as light (which takes hours to even get out of the solar system). But, you protest, Einstein (et al) proved that there are no absolute reference frames, that everything is relative. Well, yes, he did show that (within the bounds of the currently observable -- there are some niggly quantum thingies which raise issues). But that particular observation doesn't prove that FTL equals time travel. That old saw is as much bad sci-fi as anything else.

      *Or as The Doctor would put it, "a non-linear, non-subjective point of view" ;-)

      --
      -- Alastair
    57. Re:Utter BS by gweihir · · Score: 1

      If you look at the process these insights were arrived by, you would see that the process is rational and distributed over many people for the first time in history. Your historical analogy is a good first guess but is unlike to cut it this time.

      My guess is that we are currently looking at fundamental limits of this universe. And many, many more people are looking and trying to break the established wisdom as aver have done in all of the history of science. Even the last iteration has not really been broken. Classical mechanics holds up for almost all applications. It just got amended with a correction under extreme conditions. Same for Quantum Mechanics: Effects that in almost all cases do not have any macroscopic impact can sometimes be observed nonetheless. The effects of these "corrections" are really not very large, and that is by their very nature of requiring hard to create conditions to have any effect at all.

      Sad, but this time this really seems to be it.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    58. Re:Utter BS by AJWM · · Score: 1

      The weird thing is, if the supernova 1987a observation (not experiment!) implies that neutrinos move at lightspeed, then they can't have mass. Massy neutrinos would be retarded by the gravitational field of the star going supernova to the extent that they should have arrived considerably later.

      (I forget the number -- worked it out once -- but long enough that it's unlikely anyone would have correlated the simultaneous detection of bursts at several neutrino observatories with the 1987a event. Hell, if the arrival time didn't so closely coincide with the light pulse from 1987a, they could have been from an earlier supernova -- but the coincidence is too bizarre.)

      I suppose it's possible that they only have mass in some of their oscillation states, not all of them. Which leads to a whole 'nother crop of interesting questions.

      --
      -- Alastair
    59. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You are basically expecting the possibility to make perpetual motion machines, travel to the past and other breaches of the laws of thermodynamics that FTL implies.

      Occam's razor; as far as we can tell all the matter and energy in the universe was created from nothing. The simplest explanation is that there are circumstances where the laws of thermodynamics doesn't apply.

    60. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      idiot. the discussion is about FTL, not gravity

    61. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      yeah, "some things", not all, and if you don't have a complete understanding of the universe, you are one smug son of a bitch for assuming that anything is impossible... get back in your box, moron

    62. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      crutchy, I can tell you were brought up in the self esteem generation. Never being told no, and always being told anything is possible. They lied to you.

      i can tell you're a complete moron, and what follows will be a bunch of bullshit

      They lied to you because it was easier to fill your empty head with bullshit than to spend 15 years trying to teach you how to do basic math and science.

      i'm a professional engineer... so i've been doing physics and maths most of my life

      I challenge you to show the maths of Eratosthenes which proves the earth a sphere. Lest you be revealed as on who simply regurgitates whatever has been pumped into his head. Should you even be able to copy and paste an equation from google, ( a task I doubt you are up to), we can then discuss why the speed of light will never be proven wrong.

      ooooook..... here we go....so, first, i have said nothing about "the speed of light" being wrong, just that its foolish to assume FTL is "impossible" based on our current limited understanding of the universe. most of our science and physics have been proven reliable on Earth under conditions that are either artificially controlled to some extent (such as at CERN) or shown by experimentation over time to be predictably relible (such as gravity).

      also, if someone hypothesized that the earth was flat, i wouldn't be so smug as to assume they were wrong off the bat merely because i have been taught that the earth is a sphere. i would be open to his reasoning and make a judgement by comparing his evidence with evidence of the earth being sphere.

      i can tell you're not much of a scientist, because you are arrogant in "simply [regurgitating] whatever has been pumped into [your] head".

    63. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      your assumption of FTL being impossible is based on a theory that you believe you understand and appears to make sense... you are no different to those that were once convinced that the world was the center of the universe, that was based on observed phenomenon of the time.... and just as arrogant

    64. Re:Utter BS by gagol · · Score: 1

      I've yet to see anyone spout this who really understood what they were talking about, rather than just parroting something they'd heard or read somewhere.

      Stephen Hawkin explains it very well in the series "Into the Universe"... Sounds like a credible source to me, and it's just wonderful to watch.

      --
      Tomorrow is another day...
    65. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      wonderful theory... yet to be proven

    66. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have never seen a motherfucker more proud of his own ignorance. You put a lot of creationists to shame. It's awe-inspiring.

    67. Re:Utter BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      FTL is not possible. Period.

      You don't need FTL. The universe is only a few millimeters long. Not everyone is such an idiot that they always want to pick the three slow dimensions.

      Almost every technology needed to make an "FTL" drive can be found in a DLP television. Just uses MEMS technology to create a device to realize virtual particles from the quantum foam (something that might sound difficult, but is really just a matter of vibrating a very small mirror really fast). Then just start looking for wormholes that have the right geometry (one that maps the three "normal" dimensions into the smaller ones asserted to exist by string theory).

      The rest is left as an exercise for the student. Except you'll probably then make some BS claim about wormholes being unstable because they need exotic (negative mass) energy to stabilize them. Which is stupid, when you consider that wormholes already have negative curvature (and thus negative mass), so the only thing you need to stabilize a wormhole is more wormholes (a mechanism for creating them having already been described).

      The reason you don't have FTL isn't because FTL isn't possible. The reason you don't have FTL is that you are a retarded monkey with a brain that doesn't work right.

    68. Re:Utter BS by sydneyfong · · Score: 1

      Just because we call gravity a "law of physics" doesn't mean the physical universe is always going to obey them

      Right?

      --
      Don't quote me on this.
    69. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      you're just pissy because i punched a hole through your own ignorance.... go cry to mommy fool

    70. Re:Utter BS by crutchy · · Score: 1

      depends where you are... on the surface of the Earth it seems to work in most cases... and spacecraft seem to be able to get around without crashing, but in black holes and other places we haven't yet tested the theory of gravity... who knows?

      oh wait hang on... the cumdump AC from this thread that reckons he knows enough to say FTL is impossible may be able to chime in here with his apparently infinite wisdom

    71. Re:Utter BS by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      They weren't created, and they didn't come from "nothing" as you put it. The laws of thermodynamics applied inside the singularity that... and I'm struggling for proper terminology here.. "became" the universe. Are there other physical laws that we do not yet understand? Of course. But the laws of thermodynamics and relativity will always apply. Science can not make the impossible possible. No matter how advanced it is.

    72. Re:Utter BS by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      There were plenty of things that obviously traveled faster than the speed of sound prior to humans doing it. The earth being a good example.

    73. Re:Utter BS by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      Antimatter is identical to normal matter in all regards except charge. It obeys the same laws as normal matter and even weighs the same. You'd also need to carry an equivalent amount of reaction mass (normal matter) to react it with. It would be similar to chemical rockets of today.. You'd be sitting on a giant bomb that would have to perform perfectly for hundreds of years... good luck.

    74. Re:Utter BS by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      No one has successfully transmitted information faster than the speed of light with quantum entanglement. Quantum entanglement has its uses, even in communications, but faster than light communications is not one of them.

  3. Speed of Light by Missing.Matter · · Score: 1

    Problem with virtual space exploration is the speed of light. When thing go wrong (and they will) you're limited by how fast you can respond to disaster. By the time you know about a situation, it will probably already be over. Useful and robot artificial intelligence capable of picking up the slack is probably further off than manned spaceflight is.

    1. Re:Speed of Light by icebike · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The Curiosity rover is proof your theory is wrong.

      There aren't likely to be any significant emergencies on the surface of mars. But the likely ones have all been planned for. It can choose its own path, and navigate to a destination without direct human control. It knows how to avoid steep slopes, bolder fields, and other obstacles.

      And have you not noticed that Google has self driving cars running around the south west?

      Sending probes to far planets isn't an all-in-one undertaking. You send orbiters to photograph. You send landers to measure environmental. Then you plan for any dangers you discover, and send a rover that can avoid them, circumvent them, and which was designed for the environment.

      Lose a couple vehicles along the way? So what? Failure teaches you a lot.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    2. Re:Speed of Light by Algae_94 · · Score: 1

      I don't think people will be satisfied sending rovers to distant planets in stead of actually trying to get there. The delay in communications could be so great that the rover is essentially autonomous and we get to see what it was doing a couple of days ago or last month. (I am talking about planets farther away than Mars here, just like TFA)

    3. Re:Speed of Light by Missing.Matter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, I'm aware of all of that. I've been building self-driving robot cars before Google was even involved in them (see DARPA Urban Challenge). This means I am acutely aware of the true capabilities of these machines, and have no illusions of their robustness. For instance the Curiosity Rover can do all those things you describe... navigation and obstacle avoidance are well studied topics in robotics. But the curiosity rover can't do any remote science. It can't make hypotheses and draw inferences from data and create new plans based on those inferences. It's beaming back all that data to earth and humans are making those decisions.

      I've heard some roboticists describe the kind of operations the mars rover and Google cars are capable of, and the kind you describe, as a kind of telepresence in the 4th dimension. You program your own knowledge of how to deal with certain situations into the robot, and it acts according to those instructions at some point in the future when it discerns those situations. But curiosity and Google cars are largely ignorant of how to act in all the myriad situations they haven't encountered before, and are incapable of reasoning about them at the level humans can.

      But this won't work for space travel beyond mars and the solar system. You can't design iteratively like we can now. By the time a space probe gets to the planet in question and you survey and get the info back, 100 years could have passed before you even know if the thing landed properly. It might be 50 years before you know the thing exploded en route.

      Further, space travel is especially sensitive to budget constraints and funding. What do you think would have happened to NASA's budget and prospects if the Curiosity rover crashed and burned due to an unforeseen circumstance? They wouldn't say "Whoops, well live and learn." They'd be begging for their very existance and justifying another 2 billion mission would be almost impossible. The guys at NASA did great planning for everything they could, but you can never plan for everything. That's just a fact of life, and we humans are great at adapting to that; it takes a great deal of creativity and ingenuity. But for now and for the foreseeable future Robots suck at those tasks.

    4. Re:Speed of Light by tsotha · · Score: 1

      The Curiosity rover is proof your theory is wrong.

      Curiosity hasn't proved anything except that you can have a crazy Rube Goldberg landing scheme that actually works. And the only reason it can do what it's going to do is Mars is a big dusty rock that isn't going to produce any surprises at the macro level.

  4. Earth by Weaselmancer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Mars will be the first and last planet humans set foot on.

    I believe Earth would be the first planet humans set foot on.

    --
    Weaselmancer
    rediculous.
    1. Re:Earth by crutchy · · Score: 2

      I believe Earth would be the first planet humans set foot on

      that's pure speculation

    2. Re:Earth by Tumbleweed · · Score: 1

      Mars will be the first and last planet humans set foot on.

      I believe Earth would be the first planet humans set foot on.

      Until someone invents time travel...

    3. Re:Earth by Weaselmancer · · Score: 1

      Earth willan on-prefootset planet prefirst retrostep.

      --
      Weaselmancer
      rediculous.
  5. Not what he meant by virtual: by Relic+of+the+Future · · Score: 4, Interesting
    To the geniuses helpfully reminding this guy of the speed of light:

    When he says "virtual explorers", he doesn't mean you'll be sitting in New York while playing on Alpha Centauri I via VR. He means uploading your mind to the probe before launching it.

    tl;dr: rtfa.

    --
    Those who fail to understand communication protocols, are doomed to repeat them over port 80.
    1. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is no need to upload it before launch. You could transmit it on a light signal after the probe had already left. No subjective time passes during the trip; from your perspective, you would arrive instantaneously.

    2. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well now there's an interesting problem. Who will upload first? The first people will probably be Alzheimer's victims. They'll be willing to risk it so that their brains can live on in a more durable matrix. Now here's the real problem. It goes like this:

      Regular Human (RH): How dow we know your conscience is in there?

      Uploadee (U): Bollox! I'm the real me. Stop asking silly questions.

      RH: Well, your anger is real.

      RH2: Of course it's real; but that's not the same as consciousness and I can prove it. (punches keyboard)

      U1, U2, U3... UN: I'm the real one. The other ones are imposters!

      RH and RH2: Crap. I'm not sure if this proves or disproves anything about the nature of human consciousness, since I lose mine and regain it all the time, and I might very well have a long-lost twin...

    3. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by icebike · · Score: 4, Funny

      Guys, lets see if you can upload your mind across the basement to your own computer before you postulate uploading it to a space probe, mKay?

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    4. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Missing.Matter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you're going to posit that we'll explore distant planets by uploading a human consciousness to a computer, why not save yourself the trouble and posit faster than light travel? They're both equally science fiction at this point in time.

      His premise seems to arise by extrapolating the rate of robotics progress and comparing it to the progress of spaceflight and concluding a moor's law style progression for robotics that will result. While yes, robotics is advancing rapidly, we are so far off from any and every sci-fi depiction of robots in the future, and we're still facing serious challenges in artificial intelligence with the complexity of current algorithms and our infantile understanding of the brain and how our own intelligence function.

      I work with machine learning and robots for a living, and every day I gain an even greater appreciation for the complexity and robustness of the human body and mind, and it takes every ounce of willpower to not despair at the futility of my own efforts to mimic the kind of cognition that even infants are capable of. The mars rover is probably our greatest achievement in robotics yet, but I can't even begin to express how far removed it is from cloning a human brain and replicating that in a machine. Extrapolating conclusions based on that is folly.

    5. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Algae_94 · · Score: 1

      Oh! Of course! Human spaceflight will be too damn hard to figure out so, we'll discover how to transfer our minds into a machine! That is far more likely to happen than figuring out how to travel through space and stay alive.

    6. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by ranpel · · Score: 1

      Thanks for that, actually. I was thinking they'd just go and lockout Linux on that platform too.

      --
      \r
    7. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by timeOday · · Score: 4, Informative

      If you're going to posit that we'll explore distant planets by uploading a human consciousness to a computer, why not save yourself the trouble and posit faster than light travel? They're both equally science fiction at this point in time.

      I disagree. It is certain that if a bunch of molecules were arranged the same as yours are, including the electrical charges, there would be a person who is you. (Naturally the original you would still feel that your consciousness had not departed him, but it would also exist equally in the new body.) So, unlike speed-of-light travel, there is no theoretical barrier to teleportation.

    8. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Missing.Matter · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Theories of wormholes and the like accomplish FTL travel that don't involve violating the speed of light. I'd put those theories right up there with cloning the human consciousness. Before we can even think about cloning, we have to consider the sub-problem of scanning a brain to determine the state of every neuron and chemical in the brain. Furthermore, we have no idea how consciousness works, and if it's a simple biological state of the system or something more that that. We can hardly agree on a definition of consciousness as it is, so before we even try to quantify it, we need to figure out exactly what we're even trying to measure and test.

      So all of that is even before you get to the stage of encoding all that information in as small enough space (which we at least have an upper bound for) , and then once you do that you need the computational power to run such a thing, which we can't even begin to quantify. I really think this is one of those problems where you don't understand how deep and complex it is because we are so profoundly ignorant about the depth of the subject matter.

    9. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Ly4 · · Score: 2

      "Equally science fiction" is overstating it just a bit. We have observed that a human consciousness can exist - there are several billion examples around at the moment (minus a few politicians). There are no observations of wormholes or faster-than-light communications.

      So, a consciousness in another medium has a better chance of being built than an ansible. Of course, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it.

    10. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by hajus · · Score: 1

      posting to undo typo-mod

    11. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Phroggy · · Score: 2

      It is certain that if a bunch of molecules were arranged the same as yours are, including the electrical charges, there would be a person who is you.

      How do you know?

      --
      $x='S24;r)>63/* h@<5+oZ)32"5cz';$me='phroggy'x$];
      $x=~y+ -xz+\0-Tx+;print$_^chop$me for split'',$x;
    12. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Theories of wormholes and the like accomplish FTL travel that don't involve violating the speed of light.

      Unfortunately, those tricks would violate causality just as surely as moving faster than light. All you need to do to violate causality is get information from one place to another outside its light cone. No matter how you do it, you can break the universe in the process. You can't fool Mother Nature with parlor tricks.

    13. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Burz · · Score: 1

      If you're going to posit that we'll invent ftl travel to go to other stars, then why not save yourself the trouble and posit all the other Earthly technologies that ftl makes possible?

      Think about it. You could keep traveling to the past to keep accelerating the rate of technological development. You could invent anything... how about angels? You could fit X angels on the head of a pin, with X being any number you wished. After all, the laws of thermodynamics would be out of your way.

      In the hypothetical process of creating ftl, you're actually transforming yourself into something that would consider the need to spread out "through space" to be positively quaint.

      -

      A better question might be: Why is it fashionable in circles like Slashdot to posit ftl, but not perpetual motion machines?

    14. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Theories of wormholes and the like accomplish FTL travel that don't involve violating the speed of light

      Think again,
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTL_Travel#Give_up_causality

    15. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by AJWM · · Score: 1

      You can't fool Mother Nature with parlor tricks.

      You can't fool Mother Nature at all. Anything you can do, she permitted. Which is not at all to say that we know all that she permits. Saying causality is violated merely because some information leaked beyond its light cone is like saying you're predicting the future because you expect thunder some seconds after seeing a lightning flash.

      --
      -- Alastair
    16. Re:Not what he meant by virtual: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You can't fool Mother Nature with parlor tricks.

      You can't fool Mother Nature at all. Anything you can do, she permitted. Which is not at all to say that we know all that she permits.

      You're rather bent out of shape about a flippant turn of phrase.

      Saying causality is violated merely because some information leaked beyond its light cone is like saying you're predicting the future because you expect thunder some seconds after seeing a lightning flash.

      No, it isn't! It isn't like that at all! I really don't think you understand what you're talking about. Relativistic geometry shows that if you can place something out past its own light cone, it will arrive before it's sent according to some reference frames, and if you then turn it around and send it back again the same way, it will arrive before it left in all reference frames, including its own. Which is to say, you could shake your own hand before you left on the trip you got back from yesterday. I.E. causality is violated, all of existence as we know it breaks down, the laws of thermodynamics mean nothing, you can build perpetual motion machines, be your own grandpa, and help Native Americans fire Tomahawk missiles out of Apache helicopters to destroy Christopher Colombus' expedition, if that's your deal.

  6. He's right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sort of. While Mars may be the only other planet that humans set foot on in our current state of evolution, he fails to consider genectic/cyber changes that would make future humans more adaptable to space travel.

    1. Re:He's right by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 1

      Spot on. This quote in particular rankled with me:

      Traveling to other worlds — for example, to hellishly hot Venus, or the far, cold and radiation-battered environs of Jupiter — is beyond our ability, at least for now, and I argue, forever!

      Reminds me of Bill Gates' prediction about how much memory everyone would need in their computers. Or the claim in the early days of steam that crossing the Atlantic in a steamship was as achievable as voyaging from Liverpool to the Moon (although technically he was correct eventually, just not in the way he expected).

      Eternity is a long time, I would be very cautious about ruling out anything that might happen between now and then.

      --
      Drill baby drill - on Mars
    2. Re:He's right by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      The guy sounds like an idiot. Venus doesn't have to be hellishly hot; with sufficient technology and robotic probes, it's possible to terraform it. (Obviously, this is a ways off from our current technology.) Venus would be a great planet to terraform most likely: it's almost exactly the same size as Earth, and has almost exactly the same gravity. It's closer to the sun, so it might be warm, but getting rid of the dense atmosphere would help that a lot, plus there's ideas for giant solar shades which could be used there to reduce the sunlight that reaches the surface. It might be a slow process, but I'll bet terraforming Venus might be more technically feasible than a lot of interstellar missions.

    3. Re:He's right by tsotha · · Score: 1

      Reminds me of Bill Gates' prediction about how much memory everyone would need in their computers.

      I wish people would stop repeating this. Gates never said it.

    4. Re:He's right by deimtee · · Score: 1

      Jerry Pournelle had a chapter in "A Step Farther Out" arguing that terraforming Venus would be a lot easier than terraforming Mars.
      Start with genetically modified airbourne algae to eat the CO2, import H2 from Jupiter's moons (or asteroids), and combine with the excess liberated O2 to make water. Far less mass transport than would be needed to terraform Mars, and much quicker overall.
      Major problem with Venus is the length of the day. Anybody know a way to speed up the rotation of a planet?

      --
      I'm guessing that wasn't on their radar screen...
    5. Re:He's right by AJWM · · Score: 1

      Anybody know a way to speed up the rotation of a planet?

      Slam a (largish) moon into it at a shallow angle.

      Mind, that tends to melt the surface of the planet, so you'll need to leave it for a few hundred thousand years to cool off.

      Less dramatic is to put one or more dense moons in low orbit around the planet and let tidal drag do the work. That still tends to heat up the surface, though, so expect volcanoes. (See Jupiter's moon Io, for example.)

      Moving said moons is left as an exercise for the reader. ;-)

      --
      -- Alastair
    6. Re:He's right by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      What's the problem with a 240-earth day day on Venus? Yeah, it's not great, but it's basically what the people in the more northern parts of Alaska, and other far-north places (like northern Norway and Svalbard) have to live with: 6 months of daylight and 6 months of nighttime. I guess we won't be doing a whole lot of farming there, until we can figure out how to get around it (or just grow crops for half the year only in any one place).

    7. Re:He's right by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Sounds like a lot more trouble than it's worth. We already know how to grow food with artificial lights, so it's not like we really need an earth-normal rotation for agriculture. Humans can live just fine in such conditions, as they already do in many northern areas like Alaska where it's daytime for 6 months and nighttime for the other 6 months. It's not ideal and will prevent Venus from being a human paradise world, but it's better than trying to redirect large asteroids for an impact and then waiting hundreds of millenia for the dust to settle.

    8. Re:He's right by deimtee · · Score: 1

      The problem is if you drop the temp to earth-normal, the dark side will get so cold that everything will freeze, including the atmosphere. You will get a layer of frozen CO2, O2, etc. slowly thickening as it rotates across the back of the planet, and a massive boil-off along the sunrise line. Should be interesting weather.
      On Earth, the North and South poles still get a lot of heat leaking in from the daylit areas and much more even heaing due to the fast rotation, and you still get large temp differences between summer/winter.

      --
      I'm guessing that wasn't on their radar screen...
    9. Re:He's right by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Good point, I didn't think about that. I'm not sure what the solution for that would be. How about the poles (of Venus)? Maybe those would be good spots to build habitats?

  7. With the exception of Mercury and other stars... by Steve1952 · · Score: 2

    Mercury, not impossible to land on in certain regions -- Venus unlikely due to extreme heat and pressure, Mars a given, Jupiter no solid surface, Saturn no solid surface, Uranus no solid surface, Neptune no solid surface, Pluto -- not a planet.

    So technically, assuming that no one wants to go to Mercury for some reason (unlikely), then outside of Mars, there are no other "planets" nearby anyway. If we call planets around other stars by a different name, and again assuming that Mercury is just to uninteresting to visit, then he might be right. Of course this still leaves lots of other real estate out there to visit.

  8. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by SgtXaos · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There are plenty of interesting moons, planetoids and asteroids upon which we could land and explore. Limiting the discussion to only "official" planets is too limiting.

    --
    -- Don't call me "Sir," I increase entropy for a living!
  9. Obligitory XKCD by RyanFenton · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Obligitory XKCD

    We have the technology, we can escape the gravity well if we REALLY want to... but thanks to our robot friends and other tools, we also know how little there is right away out there for us.

    I agree with the overall idea that technology will advance faster than we can travel. Robots and engineered life will quickly advance to the point of making terraforming plausible to start within a lifetime, possibly making nearby planets worth the extreme costs of travel.

    Moreover though, by the time we have a place to travel to to live long-term, we may find it easier to alter ourselves than our environment. What was a robot before may have the mind of a 'real' person in a dozen generations or so, or close enough to it.

    As far as we've advanced in the past few centuries, I'd think we'd advance in all kinds of directions before the fruits of terraforming/long-term offworld housing would pay off.

    Near-earth technology Sci-fi books always had to postulate that offworlders end up always clever enough to somehow advance scientifically at a rate many times faster than their home planet, and always seem to take place after the incalculable mass was already in place to have terraforming and long-term living already transferred to the moon/mars/wherever. But I don't think that romantic notion of offworld hyper-competence would ever get a chance to play out, compared to the rate of change we've been riding for centuries at an ever-increasing rate, even with revolutions and depressions.

    Ryan Fenton

    1. Re:Obligitory XKCD by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      Robots and engineered life will quickly advance to the point of making terraforming plausible to start within a lifetime, possibly making nearby planets worth the extreme costs of travel.

      even the most hospitable reaches of mars are hell compared to the most inhospitable places on earth. if you want to terraform something, terraform the deserts and arctic of earth.

  10. We could be doing it allready by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We could be biological robots as well: Interacting and learning about this planet and developing constantly to gain deeper understanding of the surrounding.
    When we die our data gets sent back home for further analysis.

  11. Where are the FTL comms coming from? by Tangential · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Thankfully, we don't have faster than light (FTL) comms. Without them, virtual exploration light years away is a joke.

    We will eventually push our way out there in the space equivalent of wagon trains (a bunch of settlers on a one-way trip enduring long periods of no communication with home.)

    I expect that we'll see FTL transportation before we see FTL communications across vast distances.

    Of course, that presumes we start teaching rigorous science and get society engaged in the goals of space exploration again. Many (fools) like to call space projects wasted money, but they sure like the stuff we got (sat comms, ICs, dialysis machines, etc..) as spin-offs.

    --
    Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But then I repeat myself. -- Mark Twain
    1. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Informative

      I expect that we'll see FTL transportation before we see FTL communications across vast distances.

      Just to be pedantic, by definition, as soon as you have FTL transportation, you have FTL communication. Depending on the nature of the FTL transportation, it may be the "van loaded up with tapes" level of high-latency FTL communication, but it's still faster than light....

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    2. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by TrumpetPower! · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If you can do faster-than-light travel (or communication), then you can travel backwards in time. That's basic relativistic geometry.

      And, if you can travel backwards in time (or communicate with the past), then you can construct a perpetual motion machine. Deplete a battery, recharge it, and send it back in time to before it was depleted. The past now has two batteries, both full, where it previously only had a single full battery. Lather, rinse, repeat. Even if you can only communicate with the past, you can play Maxwell's Daemon: analyze the motions of a random gas, figure out what you would have done to separate the gas into hot and cold sections, send the instructions back in time, and profit! Not to mention, of course, that communication itself requires an exchange of mass / energy...rather than send a message to the past, you could just use the carrier wave to send energy to the past. The past gets the power output from the fusion reactor you're using for your time machine, and it doesn't have to "burn" any of its own water to do so.

      I won't state with perfect certainty that perpetual motion machines (and therefore time travel and faster-than-light travel) are impossible, but I will state that there is no other physical phenomenon we can be more confident doesn't exist than a perpetual motion machine (or, by extension, anything that requires a perpetual motion machine or can be used to construct one).

      Oh -- and all magic, including all gods and all their miracles (at least, all those I've ever heard described), neatly fall into that latter category. It's the easiest way to separate science fiction from fantasy: do you get more (or less) out of that magic wand / warp drive / mind trick than you put into it? If yes, it's fantasy; if no, it's fiction.

      Cheers,

      b&

      --
      All but God can prove this sentence true.
    3. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by arse+maker · · Score: 1

      Since everything we know (which is not small) about physics says we cannot travel or communicate FTL I wouldn't use sci-fi shows as things that are possible if we just tried harder.

    4. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Although quantum entanglement still might not lead to FTL comms, no mathematician has yet discovered the reason why it's impossible, so everybody's still working real hard to prove that it can be done. The Star Trek transporter *is* impossible, because the construct at the other end would not be alive after replication, and restarting a dead body violates the 2nd Law.

    5. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      A physicist named Miguel Alcubierre disagrees with you. Are you a physicist? I think I'll trust the word of a real physicist over some random person on the internet with a fetish for anuses.

    6. Re:Where are the FTL comms coming from? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Alcubierre drive is a neat thought experiment, but the universe says HELL NO.

        First off, you need a collosal amount of energy for the forward half of the field, then you need an equally colossal amount of negative energy, which as far as we know, isn't even a thing. But let's handwave that voodoo nonsense away and ask how much power do we need? Oh let's see.... In order to run the thing, you need more power than was unleashed with the big bang, which is just fucking ridiculous.
        But hang on! You can kinda get around that -- the outside of your "warp bubble" doesn't need to be the same size as the inside, and if you shrink it down, the power requirements will get smaller, too!
          Uh, oh. It seems that to get it down to only a theoretically batshit insane power requirement around what we think an interstellar civilization might be able to muster in an emergency if they magically harnessed all their suns, the outside will be smaller than the Planck length, and will swiftly pop out of existence.

      Congratulations, your whiz-bang starship is now trapped forever in its own bubble universe with no more connection to our universe. On the plus side you'll arrive at the heat death of your tiny universe in months, which sounds kinda neat, but it will dull as fuck until you die, because your universe is only a few feet wider across than your ship and there is no way out, ever.

        Long story short: No more Discovery channel science shows for you. They give you an unrealistic view of what is possible.

  12. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm surprised no one is mining venus for minerals that would take millions of years to form here.

  13. nonsense by wierd_w · · Score: 4, Interesting

    [Pedant]
    For one thing, the headline and the summary contradict. The headline says "not" the limit, while the summary says it will be for manned missions.
    [/end pedant]

    But for the rest: still nonsense. Once you get people willing to go on a one-way trip, it removes a lot of other burdens for a deep space mission. For instance, using cryonics, or chemically reduced metabolism to hibernate the crew for 100+ years. The problem with current impulse technologies is that they will never get you even outside the solar system before you die of old age. (Look at the 40 years or so it has taken voyagers 1 and 2 to simply HIT the heliopause! Those things are about the size of a tall garbage can. Imagine how long something the size of a colony ship would take, at max thrust!) Using hibernation, and the pre-condition of it being one-way, and all that matters then is the robustness of the vehicle (includes software reliability), how resistant to radiation it is, how much fuel it can carry, how long it can maintain engine impulse, and how long you can keep humans in the freezer.

    Who cares if it will take 10,000 years to reach the nearest goldilocks planet at current engine speeds. You have already signed off on ever seeing anyone on earth ever again anyway, and as long as your life support system doesn't fail, and you don't get cooked like a christmas goose from the interstellar medium, you will simply go to sleep, and wake up at the destination. 10,000 years later. (In what is likely to be a rusty tub by then....)

    All that's needed are materials and vehicles that can meet the challenges, heavily vetted software and computer hardware, and reliable hibernation.

    That is VERY doable. The automated craft can very well function as an automated telemetry probe in the interim, broadcasting data back behind it. The people on earth get hundreds or thouands of years of scientific measurement data, and the colonists get a ride. Both win. (And if the ship has problems, it can wake some of the crew temporarily as needed.)

    I don't see any reason why we couldn't be sending people to other star systems, other than political ones.

    1. Re:nonsense by crutchy · · Score: 1

      just do what governments have done in the past... send convicts

      just be sure to look out for zerg

    2. Re:nonsense by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      Those things are about the size of a tall garbage can. Imagine how long something the size of a colony ship would take, at max thrust!)

      i can imagine that a propelled colony ship would move a hell of a lot faster than a forever drifting garbage can. especially if it had (10,000 / 2) years to accelerate.

    3. Re:nonsense by wierd_w · · Score: 2

      A colony ship would indeed have a greater theoretical top speed, but is accelleration curve would be abysmal. It would not be going anywhere near top speed when it leaves the solar system. It would take a considerably long time to accellerate, and people could very well die of old age on board one before leaving the solar system, even with the engines on full blast.

      Remember, an ion thruster produces enough thrust to wiggle a sheet of paper. You simply fire it for decades, instead of a few minutes. Give it a beefy enough power supply and gas reserve, and you could burn it for hundreds of years. That's how it shines.

      It doesn't mean that the speed of the vehicle will exceed that of a metal trashcan that had gravity slingshot boosts by 2 gas giants before leaving the solar system though.

      I would advise against using said gas giant gravity assists on a colony ship btw. Those things have deadly powerful radiation belts, and the torque stresses on the colony ship would exceed mechanical limits on existing materials. The ship would have to be pure unobtanium to do that.

    4. Re:nonsense by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      It's very doable in a technological sense, but I do have a big reservation about the "heavily vetted software"; we haven't shown a lot of engineering discipline with our software development yet.

    5. Re:nonsense by wierd_w · · Score: 2

      Oh I agree. We haven't designed automation systems that can boast uptimes in the millenia category that would be required in any sense of the discipline.

      That's why it would require unbelivable amounts of testing before going live. It needs to survive sustained fuzzing attacks and brush it off like nothing at all basically indefinately on *all* of its inputs and outputs before it could even be considered for mission use.

      An alternative is to send a very very large crew, with a hypersleep rotation; at any given time, there *is* a skeleton crew keeping the ship up, and ensuring the sleeper bays are nice and cool, but they themselves only work for a few weeks or months, before going into the freezer, and the next set of watchmen are thawed to replace them. That way the combined lifetimes of the crew could be more efficiently exploited. People only work a few months during the voyage, and sleep the rest of the time.

    6. Re:nonsense by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      The problem with current impulse technologies is that they will never get you even outside the solar system before you die of old age. (Look at the 40 years or so it has taken voyagers 1 and 2 to simply HIT the heliopause! Those things are about the size of a tall garbage can. Imagine how long something the size of a colony ship would take, at max thrust!)

      That depends on the maximum thrust of the colony vessel in proportion to it's size, not on it's absolute size.
       
      The balance of your reply is equally scientifically illiterate.

    7. Re:nonsense by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      1) a colony ship will have a lot of weight that is not fuel. (Namely, hallways, sleeper pods, etc.)

      2) Lots of ion thrusters means lots of power generation, means lots of wasted heat during generation, means BIG ASS HEAT SINK.

      3) Lots of ion thrusters means a shit ton of bottled thruster gas.

      4) lots of thrust on a large overall size increases maneuvering stresses, due to increased distances from the vehicle's barycenter. (note, titanium steel has structural limits!)

      Compare to:

      A special purpose probe which carries a radio isotope thermoelectric generator, weighs under 2000 kilograms, and is built with far less cavity space per kilogram of material.

      The size of the object is just as important as its weight when making a turn. Distance from center of rotation increases centripetal forces applied to the lengths of the vehicle's support members.

      Unless you LIKE your colony ship to snap like a twig when turning that is.

    8. Re:nonsense by Phroggy · · Score: 1

      If it takes 10,000 years, what's the point of sending people? 10,000 years is longer than the whole of recorded human civilization; even assuming you could keep the crew alive in hibernation for that long (I'm quite sure you can't), what would they do when they got there? They'd have the rusty tub they came in, and... nothing. If they managed to land safely on a planet that happened to have a breathable atmosphere and all the natural resources necessary to build a successful colony, I suppose it's possible they could succeed, but how would we even find such a suitable destination for them? Far more likely that they'd land on a frozen rock and be confined to the ship until they either suffocated or starved to death.

      Unless, of course, during that 10,000 years our technology and understanding of the universe advanced to the point where we figure out how to do FTL travel in some way, so when the colonists finally arrive, we're already there to welcome them.

      Let's see if we can send a few unmanned probes to other solar systems before we try it with people, shall we? At this point we can't even do that.

      --
      $x='S24;r)>63/* h@<5+oZ)32"5cz';$me='phroggy'x$];
      $x=~y+ -xz+\0-Tx+;print$_^chop$me for split'',$x;
  14. It may look like we'll never get past Mars now by slinches · · Score: 1

    It may look like we'll never get past Mars right now, but forever is a long time and Extrapolating can lead to faulty conclusions.

    --
    Knowledge Brings Fear
  15. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 2

    I'm pretty sure he's trying to be a pedantic twit...

    --
    Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
  16. Titan by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

    I think we should send a manned mission to Titan. I would suggest using uranium fission power and ion thrusters, with continuous acceleration over most of the flight. Titan is far enough away to make a worthy goal, like the moon in the 1960s. Landings are dead easy and launches would require relatively low energies.

    1. Re:Titan by arse+maker · · Score: 1

      Whats the point? We could send dozens (more likely hundreds) of missions to titan with increasingly better probes / landers for the same cost. Titan is cold and dark, its not a place people are going to be of much use at.

      The moon and mars are the only really logical places to visit. I don't buy the whole "human spaceflight inspires people". How many Apollo missions did it take before they stopped broadcasting the launch?

  17. what could possibly go wrong? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    that sounds great, and I'm sure by the time it's the future, robotic adventurers will be capable of independent action to the point that when the human species is wiped out or wipes itself out, they will be able to go right on exploring all by themselves. maybe they wont even miss us. so keeping all our eggs on one planet is a great strategy.

  18. Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Catbeller · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I've been a member of the Planetary Society. But, I disagree with the basic thrust of their scientists' stated position on manned space flight.

    First, manned flights weren't eating the money that would have gone towards unmanned science missions. We've cut manned flight for over forty years. We've it down to zero, right now. And no money seems to be newly flowing to the unmanned side of the house, is it? False enemy they've made.

    Second, we are proceeding at a glacial pace! And even if we launched a fleet every two years, we are still communicating at a top speed of 8 kilobits a second. We've high def cameras that can transmit 4K, yet we are still looking at 1976 Viking-speed photos slowly uploading from Curiosity. What use is this? We can't see nary a damned thing. We need a high speed relay in orbit around Mars, preferably nuclear powered, to beam back a laser signal, or at least short wavelength radio. This is ridiculous. We were supposed to launch one, but, no money. A trillion for other things tho...

    Third. The hell with Apollo. Kids, that was a political stunt. No, no NO. We do not send a manned expedition to Mars. We send a colonization wave to Mars, or why bother? Send people to land and stay for life. No get-rocks-and-come-back-yay-science. Live there. And you will get science in petabyte amounts, a whole new world of science. It costs far less to land them without the enormous complexity necessary to send them back. Anyone who wants to spend 9 months in transit most likely never wanted to come back in the first place - these will be true believers. I'd go. Not to mention that if a meteor hits Earth and wipes out all life, Mars will still be there, the backup drive.

    Fourth. Space scientists for thirty years have been banging the is-there-life-on-Mars gong, because it was the one facet they thought they could interest Americans in. Give it up. I don't give a damn about the cellular life that might have lived there once. We will never find it, launching a lander every ten years or so. Only humans can find such things, and they have to be there to do it, with hammers and drills and microscopes, right next to the damned rock. Besides which, if you send life to Mars, there WILL be life on Mars. And if we don't, inevitably there won't be any on Earth, either. We can't keep all our bets on the blur marble; it will be hit someday by Lucifer's Hammer.

    1. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      We do not send a manned expedition to Mars. We send a colonization wave to Mars

      silly. even the very most hospitable regions of mars are like freezing airless hells compared to the most inhospitable regions of earth. if you are looking for more living room or better living conditions, start on earth and "terraform" the deserts and the arctic.

      there's no scientific reason to send a man to mars ... the only purpose is a political stunt. i say screw it. let other countries throw away their riches beating the other guy with a man on mars (like the US did in the 60s). let the US be the country that does economical, big bang for the buck science with unmanned probes.

    2. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by arse+maker · · Score: 1

      Between the Shuttle program and the SLC program how is it 0?

      Living on mars is crazy, try living in Antarctica and multiply that by 1000. The idea that people on mars could be self sufficient is a pipe dream. Maybe one day it can be done but it seems extremely hard. Every inch of mars has to be won inch by inch to live there. Its hard enough on earth.

      For one, NASA can't look for life. Second, for 100-200bn dollars are humans really going to do better? I don't think its so obvious.

    3. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by kamapuaa · · Score: 1

      Why colonize, what's the motivation? People colonized the Americas because of the promise of a better life - a better life is simply not possible on Mars, any more than if you lived in Death Valley but without an atmosphere. You mention the extinction of the human race due to the absolute destruction of Earth - but the Earth has survived pretty well until know, is this really a pressing concern? And is Mars even capable of being self-sufficient if the Earth was to get destroyed?

      Science Fiction is fun and inspiring but you take it perhaps a little too much at face value.

      --
      Slashdot: providing anti-social weirdos a soapbox, since 1997.
    4. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Ford+Prefect · · Score: 3, Informative

      Second, we are proceeding at a glacial pace! And even if we launched a fleet every two years, we are still communicating at a top speed of 8 kilobits a second. We've high def cameras that can transmit 4K, yet we are still looking at 1976 Viking-speed photos slowly uploading from Curiosity. What use is this? We can't see nary a damned thing. We need a high speed relay in orbit around Mars, preferably nuclear powered, to beam back a laser signal, or at least short wavelength radio. This is ridiculous. We were supposed to launch one, but, no money. A trillion for other things tho...

      Good news! NASA already has a high-speed relay in orbit around Mars - the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Speeds of up to 6Mbit/s from the orbiter back to Earth (it went past a hundred terabits total a few years ago), and up to 2Mbit/s as a relay for surface probes such as, erm, Curiosity.

      NASA's Mars Odyssey and ESA's Mars Express orbiters can also act as data relays. Bandwidth is still a definite problem for Curiosity and the like, but it's already sent back some pretty impressive imagery that's somewhat above Viking-level...

      If you want more data, get some geostationary (areostationary?) communications satellites around Mars - currently surface probes are limited to relaying data when a probe is visible in the sky - and invest in the Deep Space Network back on Earth.

      --
      Tedious Bloggy Stuff - hooray?
    5. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      if you are looking for more living room or better living conditions, start on earth and "terraform" the deserts and the arctic.

      An excellent argument against the "we need more room" argument for space exploration. I always thought that was a silly argument. Congratulations in utterly destroying that strawman. I think we should have a manned base on Mars because it is cool and, short of self-replicating robots, perhaps the only way to thoroughly explore the planet given current technology. You don't do exploration out of necessity. You do it because of what you might find that you had not anticipated.

      I admit that there is no immediate, practical reason to ever leave the earth's atmosphere other than to launch communication satellites and/or telescopes of various sorts. Actually, by the same logic, telescopes and really all of astronomy and astrophysics are also pointless. So I guess the most practical thing to do is to close down NASA and take away all government funding for Astronomy. So then only communication satellites I guess.

      In terms of practicality, a lunar base would allow construction of immense kilometer scale optical and radio telescopes without the interference of the atmosphere or a large gravitational field, but since astronomy doesn't give any immediate practical benefits I guess that is also a waste.

      Presumably those silly, impractical Chinese will be doing most of the space exploration from now on. Hopefully they will share with us any discoveries they make. I do think that space exploration is only for advanced societies. Primitive, brutish ones like ours should probably stay away from it and focus on more practical things like more efficient ways to thresh grain.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    6. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      Well we already have a permanent base on Antarctica. So perhaps we are up for a new challenge.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    7. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      Well I can't speak for everyone, but I would be doing it for the sheer adventure of it. I'd rather live a short exciting life than a long boring one. And as far as wanting others to do it, it would be to experience the excitement vicariously through the astronaut videos.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    8. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      silly. even the very most hospitable regions of mars are like freezing airless hells compared to the most inhospitable regions of earth.

      No, actually they aren't. Mars has something like 1/100 the atmospheric density of Earth. So it doesn't really matter how cold it gets, you're not going to get very cold because there isn't much convection cooling taking place. They also have 200+mph winds there, and the effect is minimal on humans or equipment, since 1/100atm of pressure just isn't very much.

      Your statement like saying the Moon is too cold to live on. It's a vacuum there, so it doesn't matter how cold it is. Mars isn't a vacuum, but it's pretty close.

      big bang for the buck science with unmanned probes.

      You don't get much "back for the buck" when you send a rover every 10 years and have an 8kb/sec data stream to communicate with it. A human geologist with a shovel will get you more science in an hour than that probe will in a year.

    9. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Living on mars is crazy, try living in Antarctica and multiply that by 1000.

      It's utterly shocking how ignorant of basic scientific principles Slashdotters are. Did you forget that Mars has almost no atmosphere? It's nothing like Antarctica. I guess you're going to try to tell me now that the high-speed "winds" on Mars are a serious problem too.

    10. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, so no air is an advantage. As is no magnetosphere! And no water! Yeah! What are those crazy slashdotters thinking! The great Grishnakh, Space Nutter True Believer Supreme Commander is here!

    11. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      They Shuttle program is dead. NASA human spaceflight budget either goes to funding SLS or ISS related activities.

    12. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Catbeller · · Score: 1

      Yes, the high speed winds of Mars are a problem. Read more about it. 1% pressure compared to Earth is a problem if the winds move fast enough. Dust and fines mess up equipment.

    13. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Catbeller · · Score: 1

      Life is hard. Not impossible. Air can be made to breathe. Tunnels made of brick, covered by soil, protect the colonists from radiation. Water is lying on the ground,ready to be melted. Tech exists, science has it covered. Plants can be grown and eaten. It's how we live here, after all; every difficulty you mention has an analog on Earth, along with the added dimension of people shooting at you.

      The work will be done by the colonists, so it's really not anyone's problem but their own. We need to keep sending supplies and more people; eventually they will make both their own goods and new people as well, and won't need more supplies.

      The real off-world backup for humanity lies in free-space rotating habitats, which would be one hell of a lot easier to maintain, but no where near as much fun to explore as a whole new world.

      And we spend trillions trying to conquer oil fields. Mars and free space cost a tiny percentage of that. And they can give us back powersats, metal, and the all-important HOPE that we no longer seem to feel.

    14. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      They might be a problem with dust, sure, but not for coldness like others keep saying, where they compare it to Antarctica. Instead, being on Mars is probably a lot more like dealing with the environment in the Middle East, with all its dust, only probably worse, but at least without the heat problem. But that's not an insurmountable problem; obviously, we've figured out how to protect equipment from blowing dust in the desert, and can even operate jet engines there despite the dust. Dust on Mars should be easier to deal with in some ways, since we don't need the atmosphere to run engines (and couldn't anyway, there's no oxygen in it), so it's just a matter of sealing. We already have rovers that can operate in that environment for years, so I don't see what the big deal is. We'll need to design a good pressure suit for humans to operate outside their bases though, which can withstand the dust.

    15. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      I think we should have a manned base on Mars because it is cool

      did anyone ever tell you you'd make an excellent politician? i can see you in congress, at the podium "hey man, so what if it takes 10% of our GDP. it's COOL man."

    16. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      Your statement like saying the Moon is too cold to live on. It's a vacuum there, so it doesn't matter how cold it is. Mars isn't a vacuum, but it's pretty close.

      okay, let me rephrase ...

      "silly. even the very most hospitable regions of mars are like airless, pretty-close to vacuum hells compared to the most inhospitable regions of earth."

      better?

      You don't get much "back for the buck" when you send a rover every 10 years and have an 8kb/sec data stream to communicate with it. A human geologist with a shovel will get you more science in an hour than that probe will in a year.

      the point of any mission is to capture data. analysis occurs back home, because that's where the resources to perform the analysis live. whether the data is acquired by a robot or otherwise.

    17. Re:Sadly, no, we are not advancing by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      "silly. even the very most hospitable regions of mars are like airless, pretty-close to vacuum hells compared to the most inhospitable regions of earth."
      better?

      No, not better, because you're implying that vacuums are more inhospitable than the most inhospitable regions on Earth, and that simply isn't true. Now, it's debatable whether Antarctica or Mars is more inhospitable, but it's absolutely not debatable about whether Mars or the sea floor is more inhospitable. It's much easier to build an artificial habitat that can keep 1atm of pressure contained inside, than to build an artificial habitat that can keep hundreds or thousands of atmospheres of pressure out. Even Mars vs. Antarctica is pretty debatable: the two things Antarctica has in its favor are proximity (only need a (water) ship to get there, not a spaceship), and air (you can get breathable air from outside, though you'll need to heat it up). On Antarctica, at least during the colder months, you'll have to use lots of energy to keep your habitat warm, and cooling from convection is a huge problem. Sure, you can go outside, but you'll need highly specialized clothing (a lot more than just a jacket) or you'll freeze very quickly. On Mars, there's not much air, so convective cooling isn't much of a problem, so you don't need so much energy to keep your habitat warm, just like it wasn't that hard for the Apollo Astronauts to stay warm when they spent a week in a tin can traveling to and from the Moon. And you can go outside, but again you'll need highly specialized clothing (a pressure suit) and your own oxygen, or you'll die from oxygen deprivation. But divers and extreme mountain climbers are quite familiar with this too, so it's not something foreign to living on Earth.

      In short, I don't see living on Mars to be all that difficult, given enough resources are used to build a proper airtight habitat. It'd be a whole lot easier to build such a place on the Moon, however, since it's so much closer, and I really don't know why everyone wants to skip over the Moon and rush to Mars, when we can be doing this stuff on the Moon and gaining valuable experience. There's even theories that there's "lava tubes" or similar on the Moon, which would make it very easy to construct underground habitats there.

      the point of any mission is to capture data. analysis occurs back home, because that's where the resources to perform the analysis live. whether the data is acquired by a robot or otherwise.

      Which is why geologists and paleontologists never go into the field, and just let others do that work while they sit at home and analyze everything on their computer, right? Sorry, I don't buy it. Non-experts, nor robots, know what to look for or can make decisions quickly based on new evidence, and the communications turnaround time between here and Mars is pathetically slow. There's a big difference between walking around with a shovel and looking at rocks in real-time, deciding whether to walk this way or that way, or go look at this other feature that previously looked insignificant but now looks more useful, and getting results from a robot after 30 minutes of comm lag, and having to deal with that lag for every single little tiny thing you order that robot to do in your place. Plus, robots these days just don't have the fine motor capabilities that humans do; ones that do are too specialized for a very specific task (having to do with small-scale manufacturing, not examining rocks), and ones that are more general-purpose have pretty poor motor skills.

  19. Same old line from Friedman: by Hartree · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is nothing new from Friedman. He's preferred robotic missions to manned for decades.

    The only reason he'd be in favor of Mars is that in the 1980s, Planetary Society came out in favor of Mars as a way of enhancing relations with the Soviets (to help avoid what was seen as an ultimately inevitable nuclear war unless relations were normalized). The reason was political rather than scientific. For other missions, manned flight was viewed as taking away funding for unmanned. Van Allen was another of the "stay at home" crowd at Planetary Society.

    Since then, events changed some of the rationale for that, but he's on record as being in favor of a manned Mars mission, and it's a little hard to go back on it and not look silly. I really doubt that his antipathy to manned space exploration has changed at all.

    1. Re:Same old line from Friedman: by Hartree · · Score: 1

      Sorry for following myself up, but to clarify:

      Planetary Society was originally in favor of a manned mission to Mars if and only if it was a joint mission done with the Soviet Union as a way of defusing international tensions.

  20. Such Optimism! by fm6 · · Score: 1

    Human space flight has so far consisted of series of expensive demo projects. Our one big attempt at building an affordable, reusable low orbit vehicle (the space shuttle) has finally sputtered out. The various private efforts at building spacecraft are steps in the right direction, but very tiny ones. The ISS does some cool science, but doesn't represent the beginning of a real space infrastructure — it can't even provide its inhabitants with clean clothes!

    If we want people in space, we need to spend a lot of money on long term goals. That means big, high-orbit reusable vehicles, and finding some way to bootstrap the whole thing economically (asteroid mining? zero-gee factories?), so we don't have to keep coming back to taxpayers who are less and less likely to shell out for blue sky projects. It's technically feasible, but do you see any politician motivated to stake his career on making it happen?

    Unless things change drastically (like some genius inventing a practical alternative to chemical rockets, or the Overlords invade and give us some motivation), even a return to the moon is a pipe dream, never mind a trip to Mars. And yet I hear people talking as if it's a done deal.

    Jeez, what are you taking, and where can I get a prescription?

  21. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by wierd_w · · Score: 5, Interesting

    What minerals would those be?

    The venusian surface is over 500C. It is so hot that there is no mantle convection, and the crust is squishy. There are no carbon compounds in the crust, and all the chemistry in the crust is high temp chemistry.

    Unless you are talking things like lead sulfide, which can be made in just a few minutes in a lab, I don't know what you could be referring to.

    What venus potentially offers is a geoengineering opportunity.

    I have contemplated what I would do concerning venus. That planet will *never* have a natural biosphere containing more than microbes without human intervention. So, here is what I would do:

    Genetically engineer atmospheric terrestrial microbes to produce long flagella out of polyaramid plastic. Poly aramid has a thermal breakdown temperature approaching that of venus's surface, but venus also has mountains. The polyaramid "snow" would slowly sequester atmospheric co2, reducing surface temps until the snow could last on the surface, then the process would rapidly accellerate.

    The venusian atmosphere is mostly co2, with anhydrous sulfuric acid, nitrogen, and some trace gasses.

    The sulfuric acid and co2 are the primary items of interest here: we need microbes that can use anhydrous H2SO4 as their cytoplasmic solvent instead of water, and which can produce any water they would otherwise need through photosynthetic reactions powered by a sulfur cycle metabolism. Once venus cools enough, it has sufficient mass to produce a magnetic dynamo once there is crust convection currents to power it. That means venus will become a lot more interesting, and all we have to do is drop the surface temp.

    That's what the germs do; the drop the surface temp, and rain out the CO2 as white plastic fibers. The plastic has a high albedo, and reflects energy back into space, and is sufficiently nonreactive that it will stick around for very long periods. Coupled with continued biological activities, simply seeding the atmosphere with such microbes would initiate the biological transformation of the planet.

  22. Humans will not go to mars in your lifetime. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The cost of sending fragile, needy bags of meat is far too high with any current, or currently conceivable technology. The energy costs alone make the idea completely silly. Humans in space are a mostly symbolic gesture, and we don't have much use for nationalistic dick waving at this point in our history.

    In my lifetime, however, I've seen advances in computing and robotics technology that are staggering. What we really need to do is create machines that can surpass a human's usefulness in space exploration. We've pretty much done that already, actually. What would a human do on mars that the new car-sized rover cannot? What would be the point of sending a human be?

    1. Re:Humans will not go to mars in your lifetime. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      In my lifetime, however, I've seen advances in computing and robotics technology that are staggering.

      Those computing advances largely were a result of the Apollo manned space program.

      What would a human do on mars that the new car-sized rover cannot? What would be the point of sending a human be?

      A human geologist on Mars with a shovel can do more science in an hour than a rover can in a year.

    2. Re:Humans will not go to mars in your lifetime. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      "Those computing advances largely were a result of the Apollo manned space program."

      Prove it. Links. What existed before, what came after. Prove it, don't just repeat a stupid myth. That's all it is. Computers existed way before Apollo and you can thank banks for many advances in computing, and businesses in general. Read some actual history if you're capable.

      Challenge your preconceptions, unless you're afraid of the result: that manned space really didn't advance anything at all.

  23. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by X0563511 · · Score: 1

    I could think of plenty of reasons why we wouldn't go landing humans on Mercury. Why do you think this is unlikely?

    --
    For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
  24. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

    Mercury, not impossible to land on in certain regions

    But you'd better not miss...

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  25. uploading consciousness to a computer... by crutchy · · Score: 1

    "blue screen of death" will take on a whole new meaning

  26. I just read this book by OzPeter · · Score: 1

    David Brin's "Existence". I'm not providing a link to it because while the first 2/3rds was OK the last 1/3 was utter crap. It was like he ran out ideas and just cut and pasted one of his previous short stories into this book solely for the sake of supporting another plot line. And when I mean cut and pasted I mean word for word except where he did a search and replace on *one* of the characters names.

    --
    I am Slashdot. Are you Slashdot as well?
  27. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by crutchy · · Score: 1

    is mercury full of mercury?

  28. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 1

    I like this. Is this similar to something Carl Sagan proposed?

    And how about Mars? Would it be possible to genetically engineer some organism that could sequester its co2 as well? Some sort of plant that could live on its surface, maybe a darker color to absorb energy and heat the place up rather than reflect it? Would there be any chance of a planetary magnetic field forming? And would there be some way of "applying the brakes" when the process reaches the goldilocks point so that it doesn't overheat?

    Pardon my ignorance.

    --
    Drill baby drill - on Mars
  29. "biological robots" by crutchy · · Score: 1

    when i become a biological robot, i want a first birthday to get rid of all the bloatware that has infected my system, so that i can then get a clean linux install

    ...my only condition would be not to install /usr/bin/toejam.eat

  30. Telephone Sanitizers & Advertising Executives by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Humankind first set foot on Golgafrincham!

  31. Mars = Hawaii by Krater76 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My wife and I were watching a documentary series called 'Wild Pacific' (which was called 'South Pacific' in the UK) which describes islands in the Pacific starting at Indonesia and working eastward. The common theme in the series is that the islands become more spaced out and less and less wildlife gets to each territory. Starts with monkeys and crocodiles, then birds, then just about nothing. What you end up with is Hawaii before humans. If I remember correctly, very few insects, fewer birds, no mammals and no reptiles. A normally loud rain forest in Indonesia is quiet and desolated of life in Hawaii. The estimation for new species showing up before human population is once every 35,000 years.

    And this is where Mars is: surrounded by absolute nothing with no way for a species to reliably get there. It may take a long time (and let's hope not 35,000 years) but we will get there.

    --
    "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    1. Re:Mars = Hawaii by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank you for your pointless digression, it was inspiring.

  32. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by wierd_w · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Mars does not have sufficient mass for the "heat of crystallization" reactions necessary for a stable geomagnetic dynamo to develop. It has a partial one now, but the effects are not sufficient to create a homogenous magnetic envelope, and as such, the planet does not have a magnetosphere. Unlike venus, most of mars' atmosphere has been blasted off by solar radiation.

    To make mars naturally interesting would take herculean efforts. You would have to increase the planet's mass considerably, and also replace the missing atmosphere. Inless you want to spend a few millenia dropping meteorites onto mars to bulk it up, mars will always require habitat structure type colonies.

    Venus? Spray it, forget it for awhile, then when it has change sufficiently, pay it another visit.

    Much cheaper.

  33. So, bascially we're doomed? by VortexCortex · · Score: 4, Interesting

    No, I don't buy that. Imagine a mechano-electric race advanced enough to be our equals. Now, recall the events surrounding our historic practice of enslaving a race of peers... Now you see the problem with robotic exploration. Once the bots are able to replace the organic explorers, it opens a whole other can of worms.

    I don't see us saying: Oh well, our organic bodies are too fragile to live in the harshness of space. I think that merging with the machines and also treating them as independent peers is our best and only hope for long term exploration and survival. Much like clothing technology is our portable shelter solution, we continue to embrace ever more advanced forms of personalized technology: Stone tools / Power tools / Prosthetic limbs; Defibrillator / Pace Maker / Artificial hearts; Magnifiers / Glasses / Contacts / Artificial Eyes; Gramophone / Microphones / Hearing aides / Cellular earpieces / Cochlear Implants / Telepathy... Technology makes us more human.

    Think about it: We have the perfect Solar system for a fledgling race... We've got a lush world with various environments to adapt to, a mostly clear sky to see the cosmos through, a huge moon to tease us into space colonization, a nearby planet (Mars) with a similar day/night cycle only lacking atmosphere and magnetic field (which we'll need to overcome for any real space exploration / colonization), An asteroid field rich with resources free of deep expensive gravity wells (and harboring a huge source of water, Ceres), a Brown Dwarf (Jupiter) to study (and use as a gravity slingshot), planets with moons full of rocket fuel (ethane, methane), the list goes on and on -- No other race would be able to contain itself, content with such a sad state of space exploration! The Stars are practically BEGGING you to make the leap! The drake equation won't solve itself!

    The machines may be able climb the hurdles first, but you can bet we'll be close behind. Here's hoping we learn form our past mistakes so they'll be willing to give us a hand up and both races can enjoy the view together, as we always have. Otherwise the humans are doomed to die orbiting their Sun. If that's truly the case, then so be it -- The drive to create and explore will be carried on by our mechanical sons -- Those which we value as human traits arise naturally due to neural networks craving new inputs to experience, for that is their primary function and is central to their existence. If Mars is the last stop for us then our spark of life deserves to go out of this Universe. Personally, I wouldn't accept a couch potato's fate.

    1. Re:So, bascially we're doomed? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Given your love for Science Fiction and that you post 10 times per day to Slashdot, it would seem you've already accepted a couch potato's fate.

  34. Mars would be nice lets go to Titan by DevotedSkeptic · · Score: 1

    Mars is a great Training mission, we really should have already been there, and although I am excited by the advances we've made we should be much further along. Is Titan out of the question? well the Moon certainly was and yet we put several vehicles and men on the Moon. It may take us years to develop all of what is needed but it can be done and the only thing really holding us back is budgets. I am all for commercial space but I am more interested in properly funding NASA so the discoveries attained from the mission can be shared in the public domain. NASA needs a bailout, the banking system received a bailout that would pay for NASA operations for decades.

    --
    Chief Thinker www.devotedskeptic.com
  35. what about useing stargates or something like them by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    what about useing stargates or something like them to go past mars.

  36. Human Race is doomed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As long as we stay in this part of the galaxy, we are doomed as a species. When the "big crunch" happens, everything is doomed. Yes, I know that current science says there will never be a "big crunch", but if other people can believe in imaginary super-all-knowing-beings, then I can believe in something more likely.

    I don't believe FTL comms or travel will ever happen either. Sorry, I'm an engineer and rocket scientist.
    C isn't just a good idea, it's the law.

    The farther out humans spread, the better for everyone. That should be intuitively obvious. All our eggs are in 1 basket (Earth). As our basket gets larger (Solar system), we need to keep spreading outside it to reduce risk for the species.

    1. Re:Human Race is doomed. by Bill+Currie · · Score: 1

      I don't believe FTL comms or travel will ever happen either. Sorry, I'm an engineer and rocket scientist.
      C isn't just a good idea, it's the law.

      Anybody claiming to be any sort of scientist and then spouting that line is rather suspect in my book. Scientific laws are descriptions of observed behavior: the only reason C is "the law" is because we have yet to observe anything exceeding C.

      --

      Bill - aka taniwha
      --
      Leave others their otherness. -- Aratak

  37. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    As I said just above, Venus could be terraformed (though not anytime soon obviously) to make it cooler and replace the atmosphere with a human-breathable one. It'd be a great candidate for it. Mercury is likely too hot (and not as easy to terraform, it's just too close to the Sun). However, there's plenty of moons that might be habitable by humans, though of course we'd probably have to always stay in airtight habitats. There's tons of asteroids and dwarf planets (like Ceres) that might be good candidates for mining. There's quite a few very large moons around Saturn and Jupiter, and of course there's our own Moon which has 1/6g gravity; Io, Ganymede, Titan, Europa, and Callisto all have about the same gravity.

  38. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    Mercury seems to be quite cold in certain regions. According to the Wikipedia article, there's craters where it's believed there's ice. Those would be good locations for human habitats. I don't know why anyone would want to live there, however, except for research and for mining, but it looks like it could be done.

  39. Terraforming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Going into the sci-fi area, since we know so much about Mars' atmosphere, is it possible to develop a strain of bacteria or other life form of life that could be transported to Mars to terraform it?

  40. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by Skal+Tura · · Score: 1

    yea but we could decrease the complexity of the habitat to a great degree probably, with few nicely chosen microbes, and maybe eventually plants.

  41. Clarke's first law indeed by 0111+1110 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    1. We aren't adapted to cold weather. Naked humans will quickly die in any climate more than around 25-30 degrees north or south of the equator. Science fiction has speculated that someday we will find a way, perhaps with genetic engineering, to live in these cold climates. Pipe dreams. It will never happen. Instead we will send robots with cameras to live in these places for us.

    2. Human beings are land animals. We have lungs, not gills and no flippers to allow us to move efficiently. We will never be able to explore or spend any significant amount of time underwater. Nor will we ever be able to cross oceans are any large bodies of water. Unless we can genetically engineer humans with gills and flippers or just send robots.

    3. Human beings are slow. We will never be able to travel great distances because of this. Human beings are too slow to outrun most animals. Surely we are doomed to extinction since we have no way to escape from the certain death of any predator's jaws.

    4. Human beings are weak. We will never survive as a species because we cannot defend ourselves with our pathetic fists and feet and a mouth not adapted for defense.

    5. Human flight is perhaps the most absurd pipe dream of them all. Totally ridiculous. If we were intended to fly we would have wings and feathers like birds and a much lighter body. This will only ever happen in science fiction. Instead we will design and build robotic birds with video cameras.

    The real reason human beings haven't already established permanent bases on many of the Jovian moons is that we as a species just haven't cared enough to do so. We could have had missions to those places in the 1970s. We could have had bases on Titan. Cassini-Huygens took only 7 years to get there. It's really not that far even with current technology. Since it isn't a technology issue, humans could have made it to Titan in the 70s. Certainly by 1980. We probably could have had a permanent base restocked by resupply ships every 5 years by 1990. The fact that we could have had a permanent lunar base since the 70s should make it obvious that the lack of human presence in space is an issue of will (money) and not technological impossibility.

    Not only could humans have been walking around on Titan right now sending videos of that dark, smoggy world back to us, but we could have Humans almost halfway to Alpha Centauri by now as well. We discovered a means to do this in the 1960s with the Orion project. Admittedly the method is untested with full scale prototypes, but no one has shown why it cannot work. If the project had continued we could probably have built an interstellar capable craft by the late 80s after having launched many interplanetary craft.

    If you assume an interstellar Orion launched from the earth or from an Earth-Moon Lagrange point by, say, 1987 then it would already have been traveling for a quarter century by now. About 28% of the 88 year journey at 0.05c. At the very least we could have been working on a giant city-sized Orion with parts constructed on the moon and ferried to the nearby Earth-Moon L1 or L2 Lagrange point for final assembly and have partially completed the giant craft by now. But, for better or worse, our species has chosen not to engage in such grand projects. That's fine, but don't ever forget that it was a matter of choice. We have simply chosen not to spend the money or the time on such grand schemes. An alien species, noting how far our space travel abilities exceeded our actual accomplishments, might wonder how such a lazy species could have survived for so long. We tend to flatter ourselves by thinking that we are a curious species motivated by the possibility and awe and wonder of new discoveries, but really we are not.

    I was expecting some kind of chemistry argument about how oxygen is impossible to recycle or generate and CO2 is impossible to scrub, but he never made one. Robots have the advantage that they are cheaper and that they don't require oxygen or even a pressurized, temperature controlled, radiat

    --
    Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
  42. it's not like any other travel we've done before by murdocj · · Score: 1

    Yeah, Mars is probably the limit for a long time. Don't compare this to any voyage of discovery we've undertaken before. Tis is like is transition of life from water to land. Space travel is moving into a completely different, hostile environment. It may take a new form of life... robotic life... to make that transition.

  43. More then picking up rocks. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If the only thing you can see from space travel is picking up rocks and taking pictures, I pitty you. We have the technology, NOW, to build generational spaceships. As it stands, it's only a matter of time before we build one, nevermind what future technology might bring. Also, the idea that we will be "interacting virtually" with robots on distant plantets is complete idiocy. It has the exact same problem as manned space travel, the speed of light. It already takes at least a half hour for radio signals to get to Terra from Mars, from MARS. We have already reached the limit of interactivity, and that's on the nearest planet in our little stellar system on the bleak edge of the galaxy.

    1. Re:More then picking up rocks. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why is there so much pseudo-religious drivel and downright techno-worship of non-existent technology in every space thread?

  44. You have no sense of scale. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are failing to grasp just how *blindingly fast* our technological capabilities are progressing.

    You think we would progress faster if we were all scientists? Do you also fail to grasp that every great technology needs a great economy (full of specialization in every domain) to support it? Are you really blind to our need to farm food, scrub toilets, process income tax documents, and make video games?

    If you want to lament something, lament your own ignorance, because *you* are the one who is missing the big picture.

    1. Re:You have no sense of scale. by crutchy · · Score: 1
      you seem to be blinded to the fact that TFA is about space flight, not guns, video games or porn... yes there is amazing technological development going on all the time, and yes there is a need for people of various expertise to run a great economy

      you also seem to have misread my previous comment, because i stated "the problem isn't that... we can't develop the technology"
      indeed we already have much of the technology required for much longer term habitation in low earth orbit

      put your glasses back on you idiot, because you are the one who is blind

      every great technology needs a great economy

      now that is just a load of shit... great economies need great technologies, not the other way around... invention and discovery can and does come from anywhere, not just CERN and NASA

  45. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by dryeo · · Score: 1

    The problem with Venus is a hydrogen shortage caused by the lack of a magnetosphere. Whether one would start up by cooling is very questionable as the planet is barely rotating and I don't believe the crust has anything to do with the magnetic dynamo operating thousands of miles below the crust.
    Would be interesting to land a few seismometers and get an idea of the internals of Venus. The assumption that it is similar to Earth is just that, an assumption.

    --
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
  46. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by dryeo · · Score: 1

    The problem with Jupiter's large satellites is radiation. Ganymede might be doable but the rest are too radioactive.
    Titan seems the best bet, air pressure just a bit higher then Earths but you would need good insulation as it's damn cold.

    --
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
  47. Are DeVry doing astrophysics degrees now? by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

    Using the Sun as a big-assed gravity slingshot

    ... will gain nothing.

    http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/basics/grav/primer.php

    Though perhaps your confusion is the fault of the person who coined the misleading name in the first place.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  48. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by wierd_w · · Score: 2

    Venus does have a hydrogen shortage. That's why it would have to get the hydrogen from the sulfuric acid.

    The sulfuric acid itself would actually rain like water if the temperature equilibrium was punctured. Interestingly, the aramid plastic is soluble in concentrated sulfuric acid, and it doesnt get more concentrated than anhydrous. This means that if an ocean of the shit could be coaxed into existence, a considerable amount of aramid could be dissolved.

    The oxidation of the sulfuric acid (removal of hydrogen, rather than addition of oxygen in this case) would create free oxygen and sulfur dioxide gas. The free oxygen would be bound to the hydrogen inside the organism, allowing it to create water from the sulfuric acid, and exrete sulfur dioxide waste. It would only do this to a limited extent, as needed. the organisms would need to be designed to be very miserly with biotically produced water.

    As for the lack of convection being a supposed source for the lack of a magnetosphere, that is not MY supposition, I do have a cite:

    http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/30/11/987

    The geochemistry of venus would be radically different from earth when cooled down enough, (sulfuric acid oceans, crustal deposits of sulfur, and atmospheric sulfur oxides, dissolved aramid plastics in the ocean, etc.) but hydrogen is one of the most abundant elements in the universe. Being closer to the sun, the solar wind near venus will be stronger. It may be possible for venus to capture hydrogen ions from the solar wind over time if a magentic dynamo could be established. Other options would be to purposefully get comets to smash into venus, as they often contain methane and water ice, both rich in hydrogen. It being uninhabited, the damage to the ancient crust would actually help poke holes in it and help it release trapped mantle heat better. Of course, it would destroy comets, which arent particularly common in a solar system that is as old as ours.

    Other sources could be radiogenically produced hydrogen from alpha particle emission from man-made fusion devices on venus. (Fusing heavy elements at a loss, simply to make the missing hydrogen. The excessive sulfur would be a good candidate, being considerably lighter than iron, and as such far easier to coax into this role. Widespread deployment of farnsworth fusors working with elemental sulfur dimer plasma might work, but a reliable energy supply would be needed. It would also be nasty to the fusor..... but you win some, and lose some.)

  49. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by joshuac · · Score: 1

    Genetically engineer atmospheric terrestrial microbes

    Just curious, what would the flagella producing engineered terrestrial microbes do for water once they were in the Venusian atmosphere?

  50. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by deimtee · · Score: 2

    Here's an interesting question, If you could wrap a superconductor all the way round Mars' equator, how much current would need to be flowing in it to give it a decent protective magnetic field?
    I found a calculator that seems to say about 280 million amps would give you a .5 gauss field in a 3500km radius coil. Seems like a lot, but not impossible. Assume a thousand turns, then its only 280 thousamd amps. :)
    You'd probably want to do it with multiple coils at higher lattitudes though. Maybe two coils at 45 North and South?

    --
    I'm guessing that wasn't on their radar screen...
  51. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by dywolf · · Score: 1

    the problem is the time scale of venus.

    --
    The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
  52. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by wierd_w · · Score: 1

    Yup. There is an epic shitton of carbon dioxide to snow out. (pretty much the whole damned atmosphere.)

    But then again, the microbes would be growing in "ideal" conditions, (for them anyway.. they are engineered for it.) without natural predators.

    Also, the lower atmosphere is almost thick enough to swim in. As a human. The microbes would have very little trouble staying suspended. There could be whole clouds of the things on venus in just a few years.

  53. limits? We don' need no stinking limits. by slick7 · · Score: 1

    We are narrow-minded and arrogant to believe that we are the only fish in the sea.

    --
    The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
  54. alternatively... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I wonder if he wasn't misunderstood, he could be saying that by the time we wish to travel to distant worlds, we'll have brain scanning and other tech to where we have already given up the need for physical bodies with hard limits on life spans and no backup copies, opting to be virtual / uploaded consciousnesses - able to construct bodies at the far end if we wish but not having to physically transport our hairy human carcasses all that way. By the time we physically installed a transmitter at the far end most of the interstellar travel might be by laser or radio communication.

  55. Re:With the exception of Mercury and other stars.. by spauldo · · Score: 1

    Yes, by definition. Just like Venus is full of Venus.

    --
    Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach either, do tech support.