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Climate Change Could Drive Coffee To Extinction By 2080
Hugh Pickens writes "Coffee is the world's favorite beverage and the second-most traded commodity after oil. Now Nick Collins reports that rising global temperatures and subtle changes in seasonal conditions could make 99.7 per cent of Arabica-growing areas unsuitable for the plant before the end of the century and in some areas as soon as 2020. Even if the beans do not disappear completely from the wild, climate change is highly likely to impact yields. The taste of coffee, a beverage of choice among Slashdot readers, will change in future decades. 'The worst case scenario, as drawn from our analyses, is that wild Arabica could be extinct by 2080,' says Justin Moat. 'This should alert decision makers to the fragility of the species.'" Read more, below.
Hugh Pickens continues: "Arabica is one of only two species of bean used to make coffee and is by far the most popular, accounting for 70 per cent of the global market, including almost all fresh coffee sold in high street chains and supermarkets in the US and most of Europe. A different bean known as Robusta is used in freeze-dried coffee and is commonly drunk in Greece and Turkey, but Robusta's high caffeine content makes it much less pleasant to most palates. In some areas, such as the Boma Plateau in South Sudan, the demise could come as early as 2020, based on the low flowering rate and poor health of current crops. The researchers used field study and 'museum' data (including herbarium specimens) to run bioclimatic models for wild Arabica coffee, in order to deduce the actual (recorded) and predicted geographical distribution for the species. 'Arabica can only exist in a very specific pace with a very specific number of other variables,' says Aaron Davis, head of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens. 'It is mainly temperature but also the relationship between temperature and seasonality – the average temperature during the wet season for example.'"
Oh, wait...
Thank God I'll be dead before then. Without coffee, life wouldn't be worth living.
If you don't drink coffee, you feel the same in the morning as somebody who does drink coffee - after they've had their morning cup.
At last there's a plausible cause for a zombie apocalypse.
Even when the climate changes, there will still be some areas suited to the growing of coffee, and since it is popular, people will try to grow it in those locations.
Also there will be incentive to genetically modify it so it can grow in more places.
Of course there may not be enough to go around, but it won't be gone altogether.
OTOH species that live in really cold climates (like polar bears) will go extinct because there won't be any really cold places left.
(And polar bears are not as useful to man as coffee)
We only drink coffea robusta, from Brasil!
Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
Because getting shit faced at work is generally frowned upon. That and if my beer intake matched my coffee intake I'd probably be fat and have all sorts of health problems.
Jesus H. Fucking Christ, and we wonder why way too many people pooh-pooh climate change claims.
NOAA and other reports have already stated that global temperature has no changed in 15+ years of monitoring. There are some warming trends in the northern hemisphere, but there are cooling trends in the southern hemisphere. Ice levels at the north pole are shrinking, but Antarctic ice levels are setting new records highs. There has been zero net change globally.
then I'll start bicycling to work.
Look at a map of the world.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that as agricultural regions shift poleward even slightly, the amount of arable land favorable to crop-growing will greatly increase.
Moreover, I recall from the 1970s concerns that the breadbasket areas of the US were going to be 'exhausted' by the intensive farming (which hasn't happened, but let's go with it)...warming of the climate, shifting optimal growing regions northward in the US will essentially 'open' virgin lands barely farmed for more intensive processes like multiple crops per year. One would suspect that as some particular, marginal soil fades from viability to grow a specific species of coffee, others will be discovered.
To suggest it's going to be "extinct" is just FUD like claiming redheads will be extinct....something so obviously tragic that everyone will be "inspired to action" without really thinking about it.
-Styopa
http://www.dilbert.com/strips/comic/2003-06-19/
About disappearing stuff, like oil, coffee, etc. Necessity is the mother of invention, and the necessity to have something in place of what is poised to disappear, will drive new technological breakthroughs to meet market need.
By 2080, we'll probably have the technology to mass-produce artificial coffee, as no serious entrepreneur will ignore the potential for profit with the millions of caffeine-starved coffee drinkers looking for a substitute beverage.
Of course, before that, the increasing rarity of coffee will drive prices high, natural coffee will become a luxury, and some will make big bucks.
As for other things still found in the wild right now, natural coffee will be a thing of the past. The following generations will have no notion of it. Eating & drinking entirely artificially-produced products will be the definition of normality, Sad but true. As for coffee lovers like myself, there's a bright side: most of us will be dead by 2080.
That's why you post as Anonymous Coward, whereas he is whoring for karma with a first post about beer.
// posted while having a coffee break from sanitising bottles for my homebrewed beer.
But we know what plants crave. Brawndo. It's got electrolytes.'
'...Okay - what are electrolytes? Do you know?'
'Yeah. It's what they use to make Brawndo.'
'But why do they use them in Bawndo? What do they do?'
'They're part of what plants crave.'
'But why do plants crave them?'
'Because plants crave Brawndo, and Brawndo has electrolytes.'
Just more expensive FUD produced by modelers. Wholesale prices have fallen by 30% in the last year and Brazilian coffee growers expect a record coffee crop this year. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/coffee-prices-fall-but-not-at-starbucks-2012-11-08
"Wild arabica is already quite rare."
Wild arabica was always rare. :)
This is why it took until the last centuries until we had a global production of coffee even if it has been known for millennia.
Will the climate change make it dissappear? Probably not, but at least make it rare enough to preclude further harvesting.
Here's the paper. What's the fucking point in open access if nobody bothers linking or reading the research?
Five links in the summary, NOT ONE OF THEM TO THE FUCKING PAPER THAT REPORTED THE RESEARCH. Naturally the Telegraph article doesn't link to it either. Apologies for shouting, but this really fucks me off. Yeah, I know, if I hit the fourth link in the summary, there's another link three screens down that page which would take me to the article. Whoopee.
Would it have killed The Telegraph, Hugh Pickens, or Timothy to do us this small courtesy? As it is, the Telegraph sensationalizes the abstract, Slashdot sensationalizes the inaccurate Telegraph article, and 1000 idiots then argue about completely irrelevant points suggested by free-association from the title, because they couldn't be arsed to read the summary.
Henceforth I shall be tagging these stories "wheresthefuckingpaper".
Sorry I'm so grumpy folks, haven't had my coffee yet :-). I'm off to read the paper now -- why not join me?
best part about coffee? If you abstain for a few months you get that kick in the rear when you start drinking it again.
Just like heroin. The first time you try it after abstaining you will get a big surprise in the rear!
The IT industry, teachers, researchers and may more depend on their morning dose of coffee. When that is gone, this will be the end of the Western civilization. However, we could adapt to tea. Tea has a wider range of flavors than coffee so it is not necessary to invent all these untasteful coffee mixtures, which only exist to give people who have not to make many decisions every day, a chance to do so, by answering 5 questions to get a coffee. However, we still have subway and can make seven decisions until we get to the food.
However, we most likely do not need any coffee by 2080, because our industry will be crashed for good, as they do not want to adapt to the necessities of reality. Then we will all sit at home without jobs. I do not need coffee to cry in my pillow. It is contra-productive to drink coffee and stay in bed. So, no big deal when there is no coffee anymore.
Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy, Coffee is proof he wants us to be productive and have enough money to buy more beer.
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
One of the things that the article does not seem to mention is any study of areas which will become suitable for growing Arabica beans. All they seem to study are the existing locations. As the climate shifts new areas will open up. For example vineyards are becoming more feasible in the south of England due to climate change. So before I'll believe that coffee is endangered I'd want to see a study confirming that there will be no new areas that are becoming more suitable for coffee growing.
A lot of the really rich ones aren't trying to create new wealth, they're trying to monopolize the old wealth. When Bain Capital shuts down a profitable factory in the States you'd think somebody would come along, say hey, I can make money doing that! and reopen it. They don't. That's because the guys at the top all just sorta agree not to step on each other's toes (aka compete)...
It has little to do with competing and a lot to do with ROI. A huge problem with the US today is that we have a lot of the economy structured around a low cost of labor but in fact have a very high cost of labor. This means that in order for things to work it is necessary to find someplace where the cost of labor is low - or we have to restructure the economy.
This means that once the production from a factory has moved to a lower-wage location it isn't coming back. Sure, it might be possible with enough government tariffs and protection to squeeze some local profits out of a factory staffed with high-wage workers but it can't compete economically on a global scale with the low-wage version that has already been set up. This means there is no possibility of success for building a factory in the US these days except in very specialized areas. It isn't a matter of competition, it is a matter of economic sense. People that invest to build a factory will only do so if they have an expectation of making a return on their investment. Today not even the government can guarantee there will be market for expensive goods made in the US when the same item is available cheaper from offshore.
Rich people are that way because they invest in things that pay off in the end. If they don't do that, they will not be rich long and there are many examples of that happening. I suppose the government could try to resurrect the factory economy in the US, but it would only work with both lots of government spending and military force - we would need to blockade the ports to prevent smugglers from bringing in the goods that US citizens would want at cheaper prices. And the blockade runners would have a huge economic incentive to deliver the goods people want. It would be an amazing time for some people.
Another huge problem that we have yet to face is what to do with the current labor pool of unskilled labor. The idea (rather wrongheaded) was that it would be possible to retrain unskilled laborers into high-skill technology jobs. Dockworkers into programmers, if you like. This has been found to not be terribly successful so we are left with a large number of unemployed unskilled laborers. They are never going to get their old jobs back because the economy will not support paying them high wages when low wages can be paid elsewhere just as easily.
Every year a new crop of unskilled folks comes into the labor market and they are finding it harder and harder to find work. Looking at the unemployment statistics will show that young people without high-tech skills are having about as tough a time as people over 50. What exactly are we going to do with these people if the jobs have moved on?
Glaciologists appear to disagree: http://climatecrocks.com/2012/11/08/new-video-antarctic-versus-arctic-ice-apples-and-oranges/.
If you bothered to dig a little deeper you'd find that the increase in Antarctic sea ice is partially a result of global warming and partly a result of the Antarctic ozone hole. Meanwhile Antarctic land ice volume is still dropping.
Not true; the NOAA says global average temperature is rising: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/
"...The taste of coffee, a beverage of choice among Slashdot readers, will change in future decades.
Oh, so climate change will be to blame for the change in coffee taste? Gee, and here I thought it was the double-mocha-pumpkin-spiced-triple-vanilla-chai shit that everyone pays Starbucks $5 for that might have something to do with it.
The few who know and respect the actual flavor of coffee will likely go unaffected by this, other than perhaps higher prices paid, which is the standard cost for rarity (look what bean aficionados pay today for rare varieties). The rest of the "coffee" drinking world will somehow learn to adapt...when the next seasonal flavor comes out.
Don't let Starbucks find out about this, or your $5 espressos will become $10.
Be seeing you...