Windows 8 Sales Below Projections

harrymcc writes "With early reports on Windows 8 sales indicating that the new operating system is off to a slow start, it's worth pondering what Microsoft could have done differently. Over at TIME.com, I considered several different scenarios, ranging from one in which it released a much more conventional Windows upgrade to one which would have been much like like the Windows 8 we got — except with the ability to boot directly into the desktop, complete with Start button."

Comments

microsoft looks to have fired to architect of win8

[Dan667]

that is pretty telling of what they should have done differently.

It wasn't time

[Murdoch5]

We didn't need another OS. Windows 7 was still alive and well, by releasing Windows 8 they only confused / distracted the current user base. I can't even count how many people have asked me what is special about Windows 8, besides the horrible new desktop I honestly can't really saying anything. No one is ready to upgrade from 7 to 8, if they waited another year or two then the outcome would be different, they haven't given people the chance to want something new.

Re:It wasn't time

[spire3661]

What happens when Microsoft breaks your $5 app? I would rather pay more for Windows 7 then be forced to put the Xbox interface on my workstation.

Re:It wasn't time

[Jeremiah Cornelius]

We didn't need another OS. Windows 7 was still alive and well

"We" don't. Microsoft does. Microsoft sales, does, at least. And inside MS, sales is the only thing that matters. Trust me on this.

MS recognizes its big dollars on Enterprise License Agreements, (EA). These have many recurring, subscription-like components that contribute discount for customers, that MS likes to describe as the "total EA value".

A principal incentive in the EA is "Desktop Assurance". That's a sub, where you buy a future-proof, free upgrade to your desktop license count. The rub is this: if there's no significant upgrade to the desktop over several years of window? There's no value in buying desktop assurance! It is cheaper to let DA expire and go 3-4 years, then acquire new licenses when a desktop is actually released.

This sucks a BIG annually-realised amount out of enterprise accounts, so MS needs a principal release, before 3 years are up. They shovel all kinds of shelfware/perkware from their incubation BU to keep year-to-year value for IT. This was the route for Forefront AV, etc.

Then? There's the sync of engineering efforts with Server. Win Server needs to fight for its scrappy share against ESXi and against appliance-like Linux application hosts. So they are pushing a release cycle that was tied back to the desktop with Vista.

Add to this, the OEM revenue that happens when they mint a new version number, and Microsoft really NEEDS a new desktop Windows at a frequency which will drive their uses to Macintosh. ;-)

Re:It wasn't time

[SJHillman]

I upgraded to Windows 8 ($40 for Pro, I needed an OS reinstall anyway... worth trying it, worst case is I put 7 back on). It took two weeks to get Chrome to run. It still bluescreens at random intervals, sometimes several times a day (event log is no help in explaining why). I miss having XP mode (although Client Hyper-V is one of its best features so far). So in the end, I'm sticking with Windows 8 but I'm not going to be recommending it to anyone any time soon other than for tablet use and maybe netbooks.

The biggest design fuck-up in my opinion is that they expanded multi-monitor support, but the Win8 UI is absolutely horrible with multi-tasking (the main purpose of multi-monitor for most people). You can't have Win8 apps on more than one monitor, can't float them in their own little windows, can't launch another one without interfering with the current one. I do like some of the apps, but because I can only use one at a time, and I have to hide it to pull up the Start menu, makes them unusable.

In the end, I had to add a third-party Start menu replacement that's similar to Win7's and give up on using apps altogether. The stability is somewhat expected of a new OS but still disappointing.

Not to say Windows 8 doesn't have some nice features - Client Hyper-V being my favorite - but even that has issues. For one, you can't run the Netflix app if you have Hyper-V installed (this may have been fixed since I last tried). Also, you can't import an XP Mode VM into Hyper-V... although you reportedly can import XP Mode into VMWare or Virtual Box without too much of a problem.

Overall, I can only recommend Windows 8 to people who do no multitasking whatsoever and don't run much more than a browser and email. Congratulations, Microsoft, you've developed the first mainstream OS catering exclusively to elderly grandmothers.

Re:It wasn't time

[localman57]

We didn't need another OS. Windows 7 was still alive and well

Microsoft knows this. In fact, I think they're counting on it.

what is special about Windows 8, .

What's special is that they're trying to unify (to the degree possible) their product across phones, tablets, and the PC.

I think Microsoft learned an interesting lesson from the XP/Vista/7 cycle. Vista was fucked up, in a big big way. Did it cost them sales? Some, mostly from people who would have upgraded their software. But this is a small piece of the pie. Most OS sales are pre-installs. And, even with vista out, Microsoft kept selling XP licenses (later via downgrade rights).

MS can't come out and say it, but I really don't think they give a shit if enthusiasts upgrade or not. Same with the enterprise market. You don't see Balmer out there throwing chairs, yelling "PLEASE! PLEASE DON"T BUY OUR WINDOWS 7 LICENSES!" As long as you're buying something of theirs, he's a happy chimp.

They're pushing 8 out to people via new PC sales, primarily in the consumer market. But what they really needed, and delivered, was something that works decently from a UI perspective on a phone, and on a tablet. That's what's driving this. And eventually the PC will follow. Or, people will keep buying Windows 7 licenses for the next five years. MS gets paid either way.

Re:It wasn't time

[Billly Gates]

Downgrade to Windows 7.

I believe your pro license has downgrades rights. Go download it from digitalriver and use your OEM key. Your BSOD will go away and you can have your XP mode back and be back in WIndows 7 paradise again and be supported for 10 years. I believe WIndows 8 like vista might only get 6 years of support.

Windows 7 is well tested, is an industry standard, it is what your apps are designed to use, and works fine so why change?

Re:It wasn't time

[DigiShaman]

If you're having to purchase a 3rd party hack to radically alter the UI of a brand-spankin-new OS right out of the box, something is fundamentally wrong with your decision making.

Re:Idea

[Kenja]

As a developer, I feel the job of the OS is to launch applications and then get out of the way. This is something Windows 8 fails at.

Re:Boot directly to desktop?

[hduff]

I agree it would be nice, for the sake of completeness, to totally bypass tiles, but if I was Micro$oft I wouldn't either. People need to move forward, otherwise keep using Windows 7.

This same strategy has worked well for GNOME.

Re:Boot directly to desktop?

[spire3661]

Dont you get that the entire purpose of Metro is to force advertising into those tiles...

You know its pretty bad

[Billly Gates]

... when even Windows-fan-boi site Neowin.net, the anti slashdot talks about how WIndows 8 is failing and what went wrong afterwards.

Basically, Sinofsky made the decision to drop the start button in a meeting with Balmer saying it was a must if users were to get used to Metro. They must get immersed so Windows 8 phones can sell more etc.

Here is a little business 101 lesson. Your customers decide which UI you use and how you design your product. Not the other way around! Every company that told customers this is what you will do and how you will like it do poorly or go under. No one listens to them and MBAs feel it is their job to convert customers and tell them what to do.

They feel to acknowledge the customer can just walk out the door and take his or her business elsewhere.

So they fired Sinsosky and that is a good thing. Sad, as he did a great job for Windows 7 but they did not do any QA or UI usability testing with METRO. Just get it out FAST!! and it was was rushed. Customers hate change and Windows 7 works just fine thank you very much.

After numbers come it the problem will only get worse. Lets hope they do not something really stupid like get rid of the desktop entirely and just be a tablet company now. They lost focus on their core strengths which is another business 101 lesson you never do. They are not a consumer gadget entertainment company and they killed their number one product and money to get there. Wow! Balmer should be fired next too

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[vinehair]

They did not fire the woman mostly responsible for the Metro UI. Guess again.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[mcgrew]

Useability expert jacob Nielson trashed its useability. It sounde like MS doesn't do any testing at all. One thing in the linked article that made me sit up: W8 isn't Windows except in name, it's Window.

Microsoft says that the new design will increase usability. Many people who used the software, however, have criticized it for a steep learning curve that impacts both novices and experienced PC users.

Speaking of experienced users, Nielsen said his study revealed that those folks were downright confused by a software called Windows not actually supporting windows.

"Windows" no longer supports multiple windows on the screen. Win8 does have an option to temporarily show a second area in a small part of the screen, but none of our test users were able to make this work. Also, the main UI restricts users to a single window, so the product ought to be renamed "Microsoft Window."

That lack of multiple window support forced Nielsen to dub it "one of the worst aspects of Windows 8 for power users."

In the end, Nielsen believes that Microsoft has focused on tablets with Windows 8 to the detriment of PCs. He argues that while Windows 8 is "weak on tablets," it's "terrible for PCs," adding that "on a regular PC, Windows 8 is Mr. Hyde: a monster that terrorizes poor office workers and strangles their productivity."

Only Microsoft calls removing features an upgrade... no, wait, Sony has done that, too.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[RabidReindeer]

Only Microsoft calls removing features an upgrade... no, wait, Sony has done that, too.

So did the Gnome 3 people.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[SJHillman]

I think they're referring to the UI formerly called Metro. You can put two apps side-by-side, but most apps don't work well like that and it's a huge pain in the ass to work with more than one app at a time. If you use a desktop, it's more of a traditional feel and I routinely use a dozen apps at a time like that... just no Metro apps.

Re:Boot directly to desktop?

[Billly Gates]

It is very hard, according to the experts. Clicking the desktop tile totally misses the point!

It truly is the worst UI ever made. It is not logical, practical, or offers any advantage. It hinders productivity and requires the user to learn new reflexes and do more to accomplish the same tasks. THe search ruins multitasking ability in the brain as it forces the brain to switch hemispheres in crtical thinking! You have to use the mouse now for instant search because something like p-o-w-e-r will offer you catagories instead of fucking just showing you the control panel power options! ... I could go on and on.

I had a link (lost it) I think from WIndows fan boy site Neowin where Sinsosky made the decision to remove the start menu on puprose to force users to get used to Metro so they can sell more tablets and phones. Not because it offered any advantage and Balmer had to approve it. MY GOD.

So they tell us what to do.

Here is an idea (car analogy)? Why doesn't Honda just take out the Drivers seat and steering wheels of its cars with that of their motorcycles? No gas or brake pedals. Just an uncomfortable seat and handle bars that function just like their motorcycles! That way they can sell more etc. Now it is a poor car and a poor motorcycle.

So you learned the inefficient reflexes and UI for Metro. Good for you. I will stick with Windows 7 thank you very much. It works and is designed for productivity.

Flaming at 1200 baud

[TiggertheMad]

Win 7 is a resource-sucking pile of goat clusters.

Everytime I am forced back to a Win desktop - XP or 7 - I'm astounded people put up with it!

I have been on Linux of various flavors and OSX for so long, I forgot about the Stockholm syndrome of Microsoft's captive audience.

Oooh! Oohh! I want to play the platform flame war, too!

*straps on the asbestos underwear*

You know, some of us can afford a computer faster than a 486/66, so we don't have to use a crappy OS that supports 20 year old hardware. Now, shave off that neck beard and learn how to use a goddam mouse, you communist hippy!!!!!!!!

*Wheeeeee!*

Thanks for that trip back to 1994, I forgot how much fun usenet was!

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[RenderSeven]

Ive been using the power switch to close Metro apps. Seems to be working awesome! Works best if you just leave it that way.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[Nerdfest]

You're being modded as off-topic, but you're right, and relevant. All the 'designers' are pushing for dumbing down the desktop with no thought to those that actually need to use the more advanced features to actually do more than browse FaceBook. The Unity/Gnome-Shell changes are a perfect example (and I even find Gnome-Shell mostly usable). I wish they'd picked a better time to screw around with an exception Gnome 2 interface ... they could likely have grabbed more marketshare from Microsoft. As it is, it makes it hard to recommend Ubuntu to a new user for the same reasons that it's hard to recommend Windows 8.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[Luckyo]

FYI, Jacob Nielsen is the #1 name in usability, and has been that for decades now. Most of the improvements that you see in apple products for example are based on implementing his teachings.

Nielsen is also author of most of the reading that any decent university course on usability will give you.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[The Archon V2.0]

I've been screaming at it. Doesn't work at all, but I feel better. Though it does make me think that if they were gonna add a human sense to Windows they should've added hearing, not touch.

Re:microsoft looks to have fired to architect of w

[hairyfeet]

Oh that's nothing, you want telling watch this video of a bog standard average user plopped down in front of a new Win 8 system, just like what would happen if they bought one and brought it home without taking classes for the damned thing first. This is EXACTLY what I saw from the 7 months I had a unit running in my shop for folks to play with, only with more frustration and anger that they were having trouble with even basic tasks. Nothing pisses someone off more than to feel helpless, and if you don't have all the keyboard shortcuts memorized (Protip: The vast majority of Windows users are "clicky clicky" mouse users and don't know the shortcuts) you will quickly feel overwhelmed and helpless.

That is why for months guys like me that work with average users have been saying things the reviews now confirm which is Win 8 is THAT bad from a user perspective. Now if it works for you? I'm happy for you, but I bet you are nothing like the average user, instead being more of a keyboard heavy power user. But the only features I've seen that make Win 8 has some advantage over Win 7, hybrid boot, hyper-V, on demand services..these frankly are vastly outweighed by the boat anchor that is the metro UI.

Why they simply couldn't have let the USER choose when UI they wanted is beyond me, you know it would have been trivial to simply leave the Win 7 desktop UI in the system and let the user switch at any time. probably afraid nobody would take the WinPhone which the metro UI seems to be designed to force us to "learn to love" but if the combo of user backlash and low sales has proven anything, its that most agree with me that Win 8 is a pass.