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Comet C/2013 A1 May Hit Mars In 2014
astroengine writes "According to preliminary orbital prediction models, comet C/2013 A1 will buzz Mars on Oct. 19, 2014. C/2013 A1 was discovered by ace comet-hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia, on Jan. 3. When the discovery was made, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observations to find "prerecovery" images of the comet dating back to Dec. 8, 2012. These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1 through Mars orbit on Oct. 19, 2014. Due to uncertainties in the observations — the comet has only been observed for 74 days (so far), so it's difficult for astronomers to forecast the comet's precise location in 20 months time — comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles). But to the other extreme, its orbital pass could put Mars directly in its path."
Keep your head down.
Our probes could either have a very good seat, or a very BAD seat for the show...
Said the Earth.
-jon
I know where we can find water on Mars! We need to calculate that impact point once we get some more observations. We have until 2014 to drive our rovers to that point.
Time to get a jump start on terraforming Mars.
We may want to send Bruce Willis out there to steer this one INTO the planet.
Of course, I realize there are "anti-science" people who don't believe in the existence of Martian dinosaurs.
...It's all part of the plan to re-hydrate the planet for (future) human habitation.
I mean, we all saw the "ship" that split the asteroid over Russia a few days ago (to lessen its impact).
So, this ice cube has been directed by the same "intelligent" life. There's actually a good book from
the aliens - they're still trying to translate it though and only were able to decipher its title "To Serve Man".
You see, it's all about us.
Well then, it's a good thing we're so far behind schedule. It would really suck for the first suicidal astronauts to get there and be flattened by a comet.
The pyromaniac in me really wants to watch the impact ;)
A little caveat and a more serious note:
A (very) quick search didn't show anything about the estimated mass of C/2013 A1, so possibly some debris might hit earth later.
But hey, maybe I want to watch that too!
There are fewer illiterates than people who can't read.
Comet C/2013 A1 May Hit in Mars 2014
That's what I read after a couple of glasses, still both should be as enjoyable I guess.
To have a rover nearby with a movie cam & mike would be a hell of an opportunity (no pun intended).
Table-ized A.I.
This is our revenge to Marvin the Martian for trying to take our Earth.
Table-ized A.I.
s/our/out/
Table-ized A.I.
If it hits, I hope the Curiosity and Opportunity rovers are not damaged. Opportunity has been there since 2004, but Curiosity has been there less than a year and still has most of its life before it. On the other hand, I'm sure scientists around the world would learn plenty from the impact and its aftermath, even if the rest of humanity would not be interested for long ("A defense system? Oh, that's too expensive, and it can't happen here anyway").
Unless Mars turns the other cheek, like the moon always does.
No matter, hit or miss, there will be an enourmous amount of interesting data gathered.
If it hits, we will learn a lot more about impact craters, that's for sure.
I guess he's decided it's time to do something about those damned Martians.
Boobies never hurt anyone. - Sherry Glaser.
It was ALMOST an interesting rant, up to this point. Then it hit the CooCoo bit head on.
Table-ized A.I.
0.008 AU
AU is Sun to Earth distance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_unit#Usage
Everything I write is lies, read between the lines.
Panic and hysteria swept our world today upon the discovery of an inbound cometary body with a non-zero impact probability.
K'Breel, Speaker for the Council, addressed a terrified world:
"Podmates and citizens, we believe this object to rate, at most a 1 or a 2 on the Q'nirot scale, and expect further observations to eliminate the possibility of a collision. There is cause for continued observation, but at present there is no cause for alarm."
"We believe this potential impactor to be a routine and natural phenomenon, not a hostile threat from the Blueworlders. For one thing, is approaching from the direction away from the Blue World, from a region that even their invasion fleets have yet to control. Furthermore, it has recently been demonstrated that the Blueworlders, despite the technological terrors they have sent to our world, remain utterly incapable of deflecting inbound asteroids and comets. Unlike our illustirous Planetary Defense Forces, the blueworlders lack the technology to do anything about an inbound impactor."
"A solid planetary defense is the right of every being in every technologically-advanced civilization. As the Blueworlders have so recently discovered the hard way, conquest and empire sometimes need to take a back seat to the basic tools that constitute civilization."
When a junior reporter suggested that EVERYBEING PANIC ANYWAYS, the Speaker concluded his remarks:
"For decades, junior reporters have been making proposals to this council that begin with 'we have to fight the blueworlders over there before we have to fight them over here', and today marks the day where they can finally put their gelsacs where their mouths are."
The reporter's gelsacs were then mounted on the impactor unit of the the kinetic kill vehicle that remains the Planetary Defense Force's third and last line of defense.
Will we then be able to confirm water on the surface of mars?
Also the building blocks for life? http://stardust.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news115.html
It's ok. Mars has the illudium Q38 Explosive Space Modulator. They will be fine.
I would love to see NASA send the backup Curiosity rover to the impact site if it did happen.
From the summary, the comet will likely be somewhere within 650000 miles of the center of Mars. The radius of Mars is about 2000 miles. So the cross-section of Mars in the target circle is (2000/650000)^2 of the area, or about 1/100000. I think our rovers and orbiters are going to be all right.
(I get it; it's like fantasizing about winning the lottery. But it's not really going to happen.)
Comet hit Mars, change its trajectory, Mars hit Earth.
more likely to be lost than rovers.
No life (presumably) at threat, but instead could be a potential for later life-support, (could not find out much info on the comet, but they are often full of ice and other good potentially life-supporting stuff).
Of course, the impact would be pretty catastrophic, but very instructive...
This is obviously an alien vessel disguised as a comet coming to set up a forward base/research outpost on Mars in order to study us, and perhaps prep for an invasion.
You really should have taken credit for this poetic post! I smell a mini-series!
If the distance uncertainty is 650,000 miles, the odds of this comet hitting Mars are *at best* 1 in 300, possibly up to 1 in 100,000 (depending on the shape of the comet's uncertainty ellipse, which is not mentioned in TFA.)
This sounds like a job for Marvin. Finally, a use for all those Illudium 236 Explosive Space Modulators!
This space unintentionally left blank.
What did the Martians do to get God mad?
It took you that long? Not the Nostradamus part, nor the part that supporting materialism gets you labeled as a dissident?
If a big comet did hit Mars, how would that affect future exploration on Mars?
Would it delay the first human trip to Mars for like 50 years?
No more robots sent to Mars either.
What about Mars moons? Too soon to tell if they will get hit first? What kinda telescope should i get? i should at least be able to see the blast from Earth
Jack of all trades,master of none
That isn't a backup rover, it is an engineering rover with identical hardware sans the RTG power source. It is here to be used to figure out problems with the actual rover on mars. Kinda hard to send out a technician to mars to troubleshoot. It isn't a backup in any sense of the word.
... if the "90 day" rover can last this long, maybe it'll be able to send back some good video :)
I don't know the exact odds of hitting Mars, but let's try a very rough back of the envelope estimate. It's going to pass about 650000 miles from Mars, more or less. Assume that it is equally likely to hit every spot within a cross sectional area that reaches out to 650000 miles. This is wrong, of course, but I'm just doing a back of the envelope calculation to get within an order of magnitude or so, not calculating accurately.
Mars has a radius of somewhat over 2000 miles. The ratio of the cross sectional area of Mars to that of the 650000 mile radius is (pi * 2000 ^ 2) / (pi * 650000 ^ 2) or about a 1 in 100000 chance of actually hitting the planet.
In a real calculation you'd have to take into account things like non-uniform probability distributions within the radius, gravity, etc. But if you want this thing to hit, it's almost certain you're going to be disappointed.
Why not take this opportunity to try to deflect the comet? We should be treating this like a test of our emergency comet deflection system.
Of course this only applies if it's really on target to hit Mars.
Your CooCoometer is broken, it should have gone off at level 11 on word 9 including counting the words in the title.
For those whose CooCoometers went off at "9" in this post their CooCoometers are over-sensitive and need recalibration as it was no backwards 911 reference.
...There's only a very remote probability of an impact, but because the discoverer was Australian this story submission was automatically accepted by the Aussie-lurvin' Slashdot editors, and the headline had to be fudged to justify that.
Definitely. But what a show there would be, if this 50-km ( !! ) rock DID hit :-P
Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
:-D
Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
it could pass so close to mars that is deviates toward ... earth
Could someone enlighten us on what this is? I've seen previous posts following the same theme. Yes, it's funny, but where does it come from? Is it a reference to some movie or book?
(In the voice of Sean Connery)
(camera recording) This is Mars Rover Spirit log, Sol Three Thousand Eight Hundred and Thirty bloody Five. And once again I am maintaining this daily log in the event of its recovery by JPL, in the hope that I will be able to pass on the knowledge to them that they are BASTARDS! ALL OF THEM BASTARDS! (sonic boom) What the.. (blinding bright light, wizzing sound, loud explosion off in the distance, a pause, followed by massive shockwave.) SHIT! (The camera POV is of Spirit being hurled through the air a considerable distance, bouncing on the ground a couple of times, then setting into an upright position.) FUCK! DAMN! SHIT! Ooof. (steadies itself, continues logging) Well, bet you wish you could've seen the the viddie of THAT you miserable toerags! Wait a minute. (Sound of motors engaging, camera moves forward.) I...I can move. Jesus H. Christ! I can bloody MOVE! HAHAHA! AHAHAHAHA!! I'm out of here! Yes! (pans up to see the fragments of the comet streaking through the sky.) Have you (sob) ever seen anything more beautiful in yer whole life? (A fragment comes straight toward the camera.) Oh, fu (recording cuts out.)
.
Prisencolinensinainciusol. Ol Rait!
Of course, I realize there are "anti-science" people who don't believe in the existence of Martian dinosaurs.
Everyone knows that Ares is just testing our faith by giving people false memories of encountering these vaunted-yet-imaginary animals, their scat, their remains, etc. Some people even falsely "remember" friends or family members being devoured by carnivorous Martian dinosaurs. Of course, that just means the memories of those people are just part of the faith test.
Repeat after me: Martian dinosaurs are only a THEORY, and a contradictory one at that. The Book of Beginnings clearly states that all life was made in Ares' image, and these so-called "Martian dinosaurs" look nothing like we Martians. How do you answer *that* one, science? Ha, you can't!
At least, if Mars has policemen, he'll want to know about this.
https://app.box.com/WitthoftResume Code: https://github.com/cellocgw
If it is going to hit, I want to see what happens. Also, do you think it would be a good time to try and send another prob down to the impact spot to study what happens right AFTER an impact?
...of what destroyed Martian Civilization in 10,500 BC... ;-)
Nothing to see here -- move along now...
"comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles)"
0.008 Astronomical Units = 743 646.458 miles
If said impact occurs, and if a rover is somehow able to reach it, it would be a huge opportunity! I mean we attached little digging and drilling tools to try and lean about Martian soil and subsurface conditions, and the same goes with the landing site and checking out old disturbances. Heck the Japanese I believe intentionally crashed a spaceship/satillite/insturment whatever into a celestial object just to see what was down there.
Supposedly this impact will make a hole 2km deep. Looking to see water, or what the martian crust is made up of? Well it is about to be exposed!