Slashdot Mirror


Where Will Apple Get Flash Memory Now?

An anonymous reader writes "EE Times examines whether Samsung could be about to control the equipment output of Apple by putting the Cupertino company on a rationed supply of NAND flash as the non-volatile memory goes into short supply in 2013. The analysis argues that Apple may need to put down billions of dollars of cash to fund a guaranteed NAND flash supply plan, something that Samsung did in the middle of the last decade."

60 of 245 comments (clear)

  1. At the prices Apple charges for extra memory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    they could probably pay someone to assemble the bits by hand under an electron microscope.

  2. Non story by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Apple may need to put down billions of dollars of cash to fund a guaranteed NAND flash supply plan

    ..which wouldn't be a problem for them.. and given the way they've worked with processors and displays, is to be expected.

    1. Re: Non story by jittles · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well the story assumes that Apple hasn't already secured their supply. This story from 2005 reports how Apple made 5-year deals with 5 different manufacturers to secure their supply. The deals have since run out but it doesn't take a grand strategist to guess that Apple may have negotiated new deals. Remember Apple is very secretive so that may not announced to the world all their plans. Also, Apple has been known to front money to their suppliers in exchange for guaranteed supplies. Today they are sitting on billions in cash.

      I doubt such a deal could remain secret due to SEC filings from Apple. Not to mention the fact that the suppliers will want to say "Look at us! We just got a billion dollars!" so that they may boost their stock prices. If we haven't heard about Apple making such a deal, then it probably hasn't happened. And it may not happen easily. Everyone is using flash storage now, and there is likely to be a lot of concern over supply. The big players may not want to make a deal with Apple to guarantee a supply so that they do not artificially limit the supply for their own products. Of course with a few extra billion, you could possibly increase your production significantly.

    2. Re: Non story by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Well the story assumes that Apple hasn't already secured their supply. This story from 2005 reports how Apple made 5-year deals with 5 different manufacturers to secure their supply. The deals have since run out but it doesn't take a grand strategist to guess that Apple may have negotiated new deals. Remember Apple is very secretive so that may not announced to the world all their plans. Also, Apple has been known to front money to their suppliers in exchange for guaranteed supplies. Today they are sitting on billions in cash.

      Please rtf the original article. The deal with 5 different manufacturers is why Apple will find it difficult to source the supply in 2013. They schemed the manufacturers and always projected they needed way more than they purchased. This lead to oversupply in the market and lower prices. So the 5 year, 5 manufacturer deal fell off the cliff. Therefore Apple in 2013 will have to put up billions as opposed to 1.25 billion and they probably have to buy all of the nand they think they need. Not just project and then play one manufacturer against another. Therefore Apple will possibly pre-pay and possibly pre-pay much higher prices and will also need to buy it. They will probably not make as much money on the NAND but still a significant margin.

      And the parent post is modded informative! The best of slashdot. This post needs to be modded down into negative territory.

    3. Re: Non story by Sez+Zero · · Score: 4, Informative
      That's probably the most interesting part of the story. Because of what they did in 2005, they might not be able to do it again. By over-estimating the amount they would need, they kept the price of NAN down. Because they had deals with almost everyone, all those NAN suppliers made too much. From TFA:

      Back in 2005 Apple pre-paid $1.25 billion to five NAND flash memory suppliers to ensure they would be able to supply Apple with memory through 2010. That was a five-year supply agreement (see Apple to pre-pay $1.25 billion for flash memory) that made sure Apple could continue its apparently inexorable rise as a mobile consumer electronics supplier. The five NAND flash memory suppliers were the same as those listed above although how the pre-payment broke down was not revealed at the time.

      Apple also then proceeded to give its suppliers an indication of its estimated future needs year-by-year so that the vendors could tailor their manufacturing to meet its needs. The only problem was that towards the end of the five-year agreement Apple was reportedly accused of always over-estimating the need causing the flash memory vendors to be always in an oversupply situation and unable to raise prices. These accusations circulated in South Korea during 2009 (see Apple accused of NAND price manipulation).

    4. Re: Non story by hairyfeet · · Score: 3

      I don't know if I'd bet the farm on that Hoss, in 2011 Flash prices were pretty volatile and there was fabs being built and shrinks happening so I wouldn't be surprised if Apple chose to wait until things were more stable before signing a long term contract of such high value.

      At the end of the day Apple can get bit in the ass by a sudden change in the market, no different than anybody else. I mean I'm sure Dell and the rest of the OEMs wished they had bought a year's supply of hard drives before the flood but it just didn't make sense at the time because sizes were going up and prices down, sometimes shit does just happen ya know. Hell considering how fricking loyal Apple fans are they could probably raise prices 30%+ to cover the cost of getting the flash and still make crazy profit so I'm really not seeing this actually hurting the company, if flash gets tight the ones I see it hurting are those Droid tablets that are in a race to the bottom right now.

      Gotta give Jobs credit, nice thing about marketing your company as a high end brand is people expect it to be expensive so passing on the costs to the consumer really isn't as hard for them as it is a Dell or HP that have razor thin margins.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    5. Re: Non story by c · · Score: 4, Interesting

      if flash gets tight the ones I see it hurting are those Droid tablets that are in a race to the bottom right now.

      If flash gets tight, Adnroid tablet makers don't have many qualms about reducing internal flash and externalizing storage costs via (micro-)SD cards. As it is, a lot of those tablets might already be using lower capacity/spec flash that Apple wouldn't touch if it was free...

      --
      Log in or piss off.
    6. Re: Non story by Xest · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The reason Apple's iPhone/iPad sales were up last quarter but their profit remained flat is because they were losing more money on the supply chain.

      So I wouldn't assume it wont hurt them, it already did on other components (screens), it likely will on flash too. It may well mean that not only will profits be flat again with an increase in sales, but might actually decline despite shifting more units.

      Effectively much of Apple's profits have been gained because they had great deals on components, they don't have those deals any more, and their suppliers like Samsung are sick of their lawsuit antics and in close competition now so are unlikely to sign such sweet deals again either. You're right that they could raise prices but that will have an impact on sales - maybe not to fans, but certainly to the average Joe who also buys the iPhone normally.

      Effectively they're in a quandary, because costs of production has gone up as fast as rate of sales causing flat profits, if they raise prices then they'll lose even the continued increase in rate of sales, if they don't, then profit might actually go down. The only way they can deal with it is to make more profit elsewhere (i.e. a new product line), or somehow more drastically increase rate of iThing sales to outpace the growth in component cost.

      In reality they'll probably attempt both, the success of which will no doubt play out in front of our eyes in the next year dependent on whether the iWatch and iTV turn up, or the iPhone 6 and iPad 5 can steal a serious share of the market back off of Android. They certainly can't rely on cheap component deals though - I suspect even Foxconn will be reaching a point where it realises it's got Apple by the balls in terms of manufacture given that perhaps no one else can churn out the levels Apple needs to meet demand and may start upping it's prices somewhat too.

    7. Re: Non story by fermion · · Score: 4, Informative
      There has to be historical context here. Prior ro 2005 there not much demand for NAND flash memory. USB drives were around, but cost $50, though prices were dropping rapidly. All computer still came with CDRW and discs were cheaper. Apple decided to move from the microdrive to flash and introduce the iPod Nano, I am sure for suppliers this was a boon as Apple it significantly increased the market size for the product. Apple also is continuously upgrading product, so it would guarantee a market for larger sizes as they became available. I am sure that any of us would agree that if the there was a decision between almost no market and a huge market, the huge market would be preferable.

      This only become a better situation for memory manufacturers with iPhone and iPod with demand for 16 and 32 GB memory sizes. Who else was buying at that size? Even the Zune never got more solid state storage than 16GB. And look a the iPad, now pushing 128 GB, while the WIndows Surface RT was released with 16GB and 32GB. The point is that if the manufacturers wanted to sell memory, Apple was the firm that was mass marketing large quantities to consumers.

      What really changed in 2010 was Android, and the smartphone market share approaching 10%. It is interesting to note at that time RIM still had the largest market share, and would grow in revenue for another year. It is also interesting that most phones only has 1GB or none at all. Android phones, OTOH, like iPhone, built a demand of lots of memory. The smartphone was going to grow, and it was going to require lots of nand flash. Apple, for the first time had real competition for memory.

      Here is where the manufacturers have to be careful. While tablets are going to drive memory demand, phones may not. I bought the 64(57available)GB iPhone and now realize that there is no way I am going to use all of it. With permanent cloud storage for purchased content and streaming I do not need it. An android phone I bought last year had almost no storage. It does not need it. All content is streamed. So right now we are in a bubble. People still want memory, but how long are they going to pay for memory they do not need? And if other do what MS is doing, which is selling tablet with insufficient memory, how is that going to effect the market?

      --
      "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
    8. Re: Non story by jonbryce · · Score: 2

      Their latest 10-Q filing shows $6.6bn in "other current assets", and $5.1bn in "other assets". Prepayments to suppliers will be included in there - "other current assets" if it is in respect of components to be supplied within the next year, or "other assets" if the components are to be supplied after more than one year.

    9. Re: Non story by DarkOx · · Score: 2

      Well, being bitten is something else that they planned for--by having an enormous mountain of cash.

      Yes and no. On the surface you are correct Apple has so much money not matter what problem they face they can probably write a check to make the immediate issue go away. They have such great contribution margin on many of their products they many even still be profitable writing that big check.

      Trouble is as always Wall Street. The institutional share holders don't like that Apple has left them out of the profits; no dividend payments. Right now a goodly chunk of Apple's market cap is directly supported by the cash pile, 30-40%. There is a growing consensus that their cash cow iDevice market is being commoditized so expectations of profit growth there are shirking just on the loss of pricing power. Now you add increasing production costs and it starts to look like lots of head wind.

      Wall Street does not like that cash pile for another reason too; control. APPL does not need outside investor interest or credit to fund its operation and won't need it even if it were shoveling dollars through a turbofan all day long for years. The stock is widely held so doing anything about the board would also be impossibly expensive. So there is and will be more fear about what happens: If APPL goes off the rails will I be able to get out? How can they possibly continue to meet expectations without opening new markets; and can they do that without Steve?

      In the short term the company is very much isolated from the performance of their shares on the market. If that cash pile runs out though they won't want the reputation of their stock being a dog. It took them years to shake that the last.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
  3. they bought Anobit but.... by maroberts · · Score: 3, Informative

    Anobit has no fab plant, so it doesn't solve the problem of not being able to get the actual components.

    --

    Donte Alistair Anderson Roberts - hi son!
    Karma: Chameleon

    1. Re:they bought Anobit but.... by NatasRevol · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Apple could probably put a small percentage of their capital into TSMC and double or triple their capacity.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
    2. Re:they bought Anobit but.... by NatasRevol · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They would have decided two years ago.

      Maybe there's a reason Apple's capital spending has increased dramatically in the last 2-3 years.

      http://www.asymco.com/2012/12/11/the-new-age-of-capital-intensity/

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  4. Re:Anobit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Because Wikipedia: "Anobit Technologies, Ltd. is an Israeli fabless designer of flash memory controllers." For the reading impaired, this means that they design memory controllers, not memory chips, and they only design them, they don't make them.

  5. So much FUD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Every time a company is not 100% vertically integrated you get these kind of fearmongering articles. NAND flash is a commodity, they can find it somewhere else.

    1. Re:So much FUD by Joce640k · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Every time a company is not 100% vertically integrated you get these kind of fearmongering articles. NAND flash is a commodity, they can find it somewhere else.

      But not necessarily at a price that makes people happy.

      --
      No sig today...
  6. What Would Steve Do? by Maximum+Prophet · · Score: 4, Funny

    If Steve Jobs were still alive, he'd just find the next big thing, and stop using NAND flash. Memristors anyone?

    Of course, if anyone else tried this, the new tech would be non-viable, but Steve would use his force of will to make the new tech work at the price he wanted to pay.

    --
    All ideas^H^H^H^H^Hprocesses in this post are Patent Pending. (as well as the process of patenting all postings)
    1. Re:What Would Steve Do? by Em+Adespoton · · Score: 2

      If Steve Jobs were still alive, he'd just find the next big thing, and stop using NAND flash. Memristors anyone?

      Of course, if anyone else tried this, the new tech would be non-viable, but Steve would use his force of will to make the new tech work at the price he wanted to pay.

      I hope you're not serious. Apple has NEVER found the next big thing, ever. Everything apple has ever made has always been done by someone else previously. Apple is just really good at attracting people in their 40s and people in their 20s to buy their products at a premium and that's it.

      And as soon as apple releases a product at least 2 other companies release their own version which is a superior product at a much lower cost.

      Apple has little to do with jobs at all really, he was just the spokesman. His engineers, marketing department, designers and lawyers are what built apple. He didn't do anything but soak up credit for it all and grand standed in front of everyone. Kind of like how movie directors take credit for everything when they are just a small cog in a big machine, or everyone thinks the president runs the country when in reality he is just a mouth piece. Jobs was just a showman that's it. Apple lovers praised him for being a genius, everyone else though he was a dick, and only half of those people were right.

      I'm pretty sure he wasn't serious... but I hope you aren't too.

      Back in the day, Woz created a floppy drive that didn't require physical sectoring -- it was picked up by the entire industry, and was part of what ushered in the PC era. Sure, you could argue that floppy disks were around before, but they were clunky, prone to failure, and the controllers were really expensive. Apple got it right.

      That's pretty much the trend you see at Apple (except for the blip under Scully and Amelio) -- they took ideas in the industry, and then re-thought them to make them both affordable and useful (not just one or the other). Apple also, of course, has had more than its share of "me too" technologies, such as the mouse (ball and laser versions), USB, LCD screens, EFI, etc. But in all these cases, I think you'll find that Apple's implementation often drove market acceptance.

      Apple grabbed people in their 40's and 20's for one very big reason: they targeted the education market when both of those groups were in elementary/highschool. To those groups, Apple is a brand synonymous with technology done right. Then Apple went after the hipster movement, and fed new lines of product into the same demographics.

      However, Apple has also targeted other markets -- it's why you'll still find graphic designers using Apple products, as well as die hard groups in the US Military, among other places. Apple has always sold vision and a story, not just technology.

      And this is where Jobs came in -- he was an excellent salesman for vision and story. He knew how to deliver the entire package in a way that would capture people's imagination (hence the reality distortion field).

      And here's the big part: he didn't just use these skills on the general public: he did the same thing within Apple. As a result, he wasn't just a spokesman; he was the man who drove his engineers, marketing department, designers and lawyers. He pushed all of them -- hard. This is why he gets so much credit; he was a genius at getting things done, and was a dick when he needed to be to accomplish this. Not the sort of person I'd like to have as a friend, but as a totalitarian leader for a large company, he had just the right talents.

      Oh, I missed out your comment about "superior products at a much lower cost" -- examples please. Apple used to be this way back in the 90's, when they were hefting most of the R&D costs and clueless about where they were actually heading. These days, prices are all similar, components are identical, and Apple is really only fronting the marketing research, with R&D being done by all the leaders on the technology front.

  7. so who is samsung going to sell to? by alen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    this is not a school yard
    samsung borrowed lots of money to build high tech flash memory factories. they can play hardball with apple, but they need to have a customer lined up to buy up whatever apple doesn't. unused capacity means lost revenue while salaries and interest on the debt still has to be paid

    1. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by h4rr4r · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This.
      The article is completely crap. Samsung will sell flash to anyone who will buy it, until they are out of capacity. Sure they will likely give better deals, faster delivery, whatever to their own mobile and computer divisions, but they are in the business of selling these chips. They are not out of spite going to ignore a huge customer.

    2. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by radio4fan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The summary is way over-dramatic.

      The customer they have lined up to buy the NAND flash is Samsung itself, as they're now making a shit-load of smartphones, tablets, TVs and whatnot. There just may not be enough flash memory to go around.

      The article is also littered with phrases like "what effect, if any..", "one can imagine that...", "there is the possibility that..."

    3. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by hairyfeet · · Score: 2

      The problem with your theory is this: In 2011 there really wasn't as much stuff using those chips as there are now. In 2011 only the most high end TVs were "smart TVs", now even the low end sets have some smart features which means flash, hell pretty much every thing with a screen now uses flash memory and with so many appliance makers out there if Samsung wants to play hardball I seriously doubt it'll be hard to find takers for those chips.

      But Apple is sitting on such a mound of capital I'm shocked they just haven't had their own fab built, not like their usage of flash chips is gonna go down at any point in the next several years barring some breakthrough in storage tech so if Apple has to scramble for chips i could easily see them either building their own or buying one of the smaller fabs for themselves. After all wouldn't be the first time, look at how they bought PA Semi so they could bring chip design in house.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    4. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This other confidence inspiring gem FTA stuck out:
      "There are few reliable sources for this, a comment in the Korea Times here, an unnamed supply chain sources there, but the general opinion is that..."

    5. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by default+luser · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Short of buying someone with a fab, Apple cannot just buy a fab. They need the knowhow as much as the physical plant. What will happen is they will buy rights to the output of a fab for X years for Y dollars. They could also buy a small Fab firm, but there are not that many of those left. Who short of Intel and Samsung is down to 22nm? And we both know Apple is not buying Intel or Samsung.

      How about Sandisk?

      They're a 6 Billion dollar a year company in terms of revenue (about a quarter of Samsung), and with a market cap of 14 Billion they're quite purchasable.

      The company has a shiny outlook thanks to the increase in flash prices this year, so I would think that a takeover bid would be graciously accepted right now.

      They have their own NAND fabs, have a growing SSD business (vertical integration with desktops?). The only stick point I can see is the Sansa music players, which might get buried during the buyout.

      --

      Man is the animal that laughs.
      And occasionally whores for Karma.

    6. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Sandisk are not really a viable competitor to Samsung for very high end devices though. Samsung have a big advantage in terms of performance and low power consumption, and are very competitive on price. That's why Sandisk flash mostly ends up in SD memory cards, mid-range devices and devices where power consumption isn't an issue.

      Hynix do some okay stuff. Building/buying a fab is an option but I doubt Apple would want to go down that road because the cost of R&D and investment just to keep up with the state of the art is immense, and Apple doesn't do any manufacturing anyway.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    7. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by h4rr4r · · Score: 2

      I doubt it would be allowed by regulators.
      It would be bad for the entire industry to have the nearly monopoly CPU vendor for the server/desktop space so closely linked with an OS vendor.

    8. Re:so who is samsung going to sell to? by Algae_94 · · Score: 2

      funny thing about a hostile takeover, buying all those shares of Intel would cause the price to rise to the point that the takeover is way too expensive to do, even for Apple. Intel is just not a likely acquisition for Apple.

  8. Re:Yes please by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Nothing like the nerdrage geeks seem to have against companies they have nothing do with. Grind your teeth!

    Disclaimer: I hate the fact that people get so riled up over cell phones

  9. So what... by multimediavt · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Pay particular attention to the 'Total cash' line item. Apple could build their own fab anywhere they wanted with the amount of cash they have. Why is this an issue? Oh yeah, it's not. More FUD on a slow news day.

    1. Re:So what... by Targon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A fab isn't just some generic piece of equipment, and getting beyond 32nm has proven difficult for most companies. If it were so easy, then AMD would have 22nm processors currently and wouldn't be having nearly as many problems competing in the CPU space. There is also expertise that is required beyond the basic equipment.

    2. Re:So what... by interval1066 · · Score: 2

      Yes, they probably can do this. But building a fab for every supply problem isn't practical.

      --
      Python: 'And then suddenly you have a language which says "we're all stuck with whatever the whiniest coder wants".'
    3. Re:So what... by Dishevel · · Score: 2

      Not only the expertise, but also the time required to get up and running, but also the time.
      Once you decide to set up your own chip fabrication plant it will be a few years (maybe a few more) before you start producing the chips.
      By that time the entire market can change. Setting up your own fab is not a solution to a problem you see coming in 2013 or even probably 2015.

      --
      Why is it so hard to only have politicians for a few years, then have them go away?
  10. Re:apple are retards by DougOtto · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It'd be easier to accept your assessment of Apple's intellectual prowess if you used things like capital letters and punctuation.

    /just sayin

    --
    Solving Unix problems since 1989...
  11. The usual way... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...they invent flash and sue everyone who uses their patent.

  12. Re:Stupid Move by TheSkepticalOptimist · · Score: 4, Insightful

    6 years ago Samsung was barely a competitor in the non-smartphone market, now Samsung is outselling Apple in smartphones.

    Samsung is probably their own biggest customers for their NAND flash. Companies often "buy" within their own divisions, so Samsung's phone division is Samsung's component division's best customer.

    Now also consider that Samsung has become the largest manufacture for smart TV's and AV components, all requiring NAND flash, even some of their refrigerators have web services built into them. Samsung is creating an empire significantly larger than Apple.

    ANY Samsung shareholder should be thrilled with the direction Samsung has taken and turning it into a household name that exceeds Apple's mindshare around the world.

    You could be a stupid investor and dump Samsung shares because you don't like how they are treating Apple, but realize Apple is becoming a small drop in Samsung's profits and business strategy. Considering how vocal Apple has been about moving away from Samsung, Samsung is taking the right steps to sever ties and move towards more lucrative and profitable industries, namely, themselves.

    Samsung makes phones, tablets, computers, the parts that goes into those devices AND TV's, appliances, and so much more. Samsung is so friggen diversified that Apple probably NEVER made a significant impact on their profits, so if I ran Samsung, I would say good riddance and cripple one of their pissy competitors in only one of their many many divisions.

    --
    I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
  13. Re:Yes please by Thud457 · · Score: 4, Funny

    OH YEAH?!! Well, your favorite brand of pencil sucks. They don't even use sustainably-grown cedar!

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  14. Wow... Talk about pulling a story out of thin air by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The article starts by saying there's little to no reliable evidence for this... but Apple MAY be planning to jump ship on Samsung with regards to manufacturing of its A7 processor. Then, from there it goes on to "if this happens, how will it affect Samsung's willingness to sell memory to Apple", and speculates (with zero support, not even rumors) that maybe Samsung MIGHT need to keep more of its own memory for its own products, in which case it MIGHT have to allocate how much memory Apple can buy (again, this is not even supported by some whisper the author heard in a bar - he's flying solo).

    That's bad rumor-mongering even by analyst standards.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  15. Re:Wow... Talk about pulling a story out of thin a by MightyYar · · Score: 3, Informative

    ...all in the midst of a glut in capacity in the semiconductor industry.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  16. Re:I hate the term FUD by DragonWriter · · Score: 4, Informative

    The most famous and probably the start of the term "FUD - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" was Microsoft's comparisons of their OS with Linux

    No, its not probably the start of the term; it goes back, in that specific form, at least to IBM's tactics against competitors in the 1970s.

  17. Re:american companies have quit looking long term by Chance+Phelps · · Score: 2

    Quite true. Most American companies have to show more revenue and profits than what they got in the previous quarter, else the shareholders will scream bloody murder. However, the Asian companies have got it right: profits don't matter. Marketshare does. Once you have control over the market bordering on the monopolistic, you can charge what you feel like. They also make long term investments (like Samsung in TFA). On the other hand, you have companies like HP whose operations seem to be planned on a day-to-day basis. Even then, they have trouble sticking to their plans (or CEOs).

  18. Apple may need to put down billions of dollars by Swampash · · Score: 2

    Yeah, that'll be a real disaster, what with Apple being so short of cash and all.

  19. Re:WTF? by NatasRevol · · Score: 2

    Samsung has a monopoly on NAND flash chips?

    Not a monopoly, but a clear majority of world wide manufacturing.

    --
    There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  20. Re:Yes please by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yes, would've been much better to still be in these mythical days when everything about smartphones was cheap, open, easy to use, and not at all locked down and preconfigured with abortionware by the cell carriers.

    You lot amuse me - the iPhone is orders of magnitude more "open" and functional than anything that existed in anything remotely resembling a "mainstream" smartphone market prior to the iPhone's debut. But because it's not completely open in every way you can imagine, you clickety-clack away on Slashdot, burning all that nerdrage - and probably some lean tissue - talking about how Apple's entrance into the smart phone market plunged us into some sort of Smartphone Dark Ages.

    The good old days you all seem to remember aren't anywhere near as good as you'd like to believe they were. And the best thing is, we have legitimate competition in the smartphone market between Android & Apple - which means that we, as consumers, will continue to benefit as they duke it out.

    Quit yer bitchin - these are great days we're living, bros.

    (Incidentally - since Apple's 30% cut is so unreasonable and extortionary, where are the multitude of viable competitors charging something significantly less than that? Maybe that 30% really is a lot closer to 'break-even' or 'modestly profitable' than you'd like to admit, given that they're handling hosting, sales, distribution, and payment processing?)

  21. Re:american companies have quit looking long term by WindBourne · · Score: 2

    Before the GD, we allowed executives to own stock. As such, many of our companies were short-sighted and we had crashed every 20 years or so. Since 1933 when the no-executive-own-stock was put in place, the companies switched to long-term focus and we had massive economic expansion. It was after reagan rolled that EO out and allowed executives to own stock that we have seen nothing but short-term focus. It has nothing to do with profits. It all has to do with stock manipulations. Look at GE, IBM, and HP. They have done massive damage to themselves via CEOs that look short-term. Heck, an even better example is American Airliens. They did great under Bob Crandall. Under the next 2 CEOs, the companies was bankrupted. Why? Because the executives had loads of stock and pushed for short-term manipulation that ran up the stock price at which point the executive sold much of their stocks, while waiting for more.

    What is needed is for an EMPLOYEE STOCK. One that is tied to profits, and is not allowed to be sold on the open markets. Yes, basically, an ESOP. However, they need to make it so that NO employee is allowed to own any public stock in the industry.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  22. Lets put your convo in perspective by tuppe666 · · Score: 2

    Apple much to its disgrace has large amounts of unused cash around, that perhaps it should have invested earlier, but buying out Samsung is simply not even close to being a reality, Samsungs market cap sits at $200Billion admittedly half that of Apples Plummeting Market cap of $400Billion, but it is far too large for Apple to buy.

  23. this is why Apple has a huge cash stash by swschrad · · Score: 2

    need a fab? buy a fab. update it. make a screaming pile of flash memory. undercut the market price while supplying all their own.

    oh, and One More Thing... we remember who our friends are, and they get a discount.

    --
    if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
    1. Re:this is why Apple has a huge cash stash by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Unfortunately a fab is not a household appliance that you can have installed by next Tuesday. These things take time to plan and build and need to operate for a while before they crank out working chips. If Apple needs flash memory next year, this year is a little late to start planning.

    2. Re:this is why Apple has a huge cash stash by tibit · · Score: 5, Funny

      If you have Apple's pile of cash, getting a fab is pretty damn easy. You just hire people who know exactly what they are doing. If you scramble, you can have blueprints and permits done in a month, all the POs and contracts can be signed by next month, and you can break the ground and go ahead. All it takes is focused people who know exactly what it takes in their discipline -- architects, process engineers, building site managers, etc.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    3. Re:this is why Apple has a huge cash stash by David_Hart · · Score: 4, Informative

      If you have Apple's pile of cash, getting a fab is pretty damn easy. You just hire people who know exactly what they are doing. If you scramble, you can have blueprints and permits done in a month, all the POs and contracts can be signed by next month, and you can break the ground and go ahead. All it takes is focused people who know exactly what it takes in their discipline -- architects, process engineers, building site managers, etc.

      Seriously?? LOL...

      I used to work for a company that builds the robots/machines required for fabs. It would take 6 to 12 months just to spin up extra capacity in an existing fab. Most fabs took at least 2 years to build, from planning to production. In addition, it then takes another year or so to improve chip yields to get the plant at maximum efficiency. And this is working with major chip manufacturers with experienced personnel already on their payroll and with huge budgets. For Apple to build a fab, it would take them much longer as they would be literally starting from scratch with hiring fab managers, etc.

    4. Re:this is why Apple has a huge cash stash by vux984 · · Score: 2

      oh, and One More Thing... we remember who our friends are, and they get a discount.

      2% discount, provided you buy it on valentines day, and you don't mind that it's already engraved with "Happy Birthday Julilly-Lynn"

  24. The "skilled labor" problem by swb · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Is less about outsourcing and more about pay rates and employer expectations.

    http://www.startribune.com/business/164935926.html?refer=y

    There was another story in this paper as well about this I couldn't find the link to -- a survey found that the "problem" wasn't a lack of workers, it was the low wages and working conditions that kept employers from recruiting workers.

    Training is an issue as well -- employers have a desire to hire "ready for work" employers, even though the employees they often want need to have extensive education and experience with complex, high tech manufacturing systems that are difficult to get experience with...without working on one.

    It's a self-perpetuating problem for employers. As long as they refuse to invest in training and paying salaries, they will have a shortage of workers.

    I also think they have another problem -- the culture of manufacturing and blue collar employment generally. Manufacturing jobs have historically been "dumb" jobs -- the kind of work some high school dropout or grad got working on an assembly line turning a bolt, adding a part or whatever. Little to no skill, no education. Treat them awful and throw them away, we can always plug another body into this. It's why much of this COULD be outsourced -- there's little difference between an ex-jock who barely got a high school diploma and some third world country mouse who moved to the city.

    Unions boosted the wages of these jobs until the early 70s, but there was always this cultural gulf between "labor" and "management"" and usually open hostility, as management sought to screw labor any way they could, and labor sought to take management for maximum compensation and minimum work. Labor were people to be piss-tested, searched and yelled at, and sic your security goons on if they step out of line.

    Now we're at this point where the people manufacturers need aren't the dumb HS grads or third world peons, they are educated people with extensive skills, but business keep perpetuating this fucked up class warfare kind of culture, with the working conditions and pay to go with it. No wonder they can't find people -- anyone self-aware enough and smart enough to do this kind of work wants nothing to do with being treated as little more than a slave.

    If we would have a manufacturing environment that treated the skilled workers more like white collar office workers and paid them that way, I can only imagine the talent pool would grow a lot deeper and the productivity would skyrocket.

  25. There are many alternatives. by MaWeiTao · · Score: 2

    Taiwan? Germany? Or, godforbid, the United States?

    The added bonus is that they wont copy your designs while they're making this stuff for you.

  26. Funniest post ever! by Overzeetop · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That may be one of the funniest things I've read in a while.

    Next time I need a baby in two weeks, I'm going to get together a team of 18 women and have them knock it out. I can pay extra, so it shouldn't be problem to get them focused and working together.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    1. Re:Funniest post ever! by Darinbob · · Score: 4, Funny

      That project might not succeed, but if they're getting 18 women pregnant I suspect there are a lot of happy developers anyway.

  27. Re:"the typical man-hour myth" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    He did specify women.

  28. Re:"the typical man-hour myth" by Overzeetop · · Score: 3, Informative

    I wager that no matter what resources I muster, getting a functioning baby, from scratch (so to speak), is going to take me no less than 36 weeks, and that's shorting the process by a couple figuring you can induce early (i.e.: the base moulding won't be applied and some of the paint won't be finished).

    I've watched some "fast track" architectural projects (I'm a structural engineer in real life), and one of two things happen: The project ends up taking just as long as it would have, or it becomes an absolute clusterfuck where nothing works properly. Occasionally, you get both the regular schedule AND the clusterfuck. On very rare occasions, and on very small projects, good planning actually saves time - but it's still never as much as the owner would like.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  29. Re:the old AMD plants are closed or underutilized by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It took SAMSUNG 2 years to build a fab in China recently. That was considered neck-breaking speed to have one built. China is the easiest place to build b/c of poor labor and environmental laws, but you can't simply clear land, pour concrete, complete a building, and get the equipment online much faster. Even if you purchased an old fab, it would take at least a year or two b/c the old equipment wouldn't be of the quality necessary -- nor would the air filtration, etc. It'd take you almost as long to re-furb an old fab as it would to build a new one to get it to where you'd want it to be.

    All companies that build fabs have the kind of money to make these things happen. Pouring more into it won't make it happen any faster as speed is always a priority in the industry. You build a fab, expect to get so many years out of it of high profit, then switch gears to low profit as you build another fab for the higher profit things... and then re-tool the old fab or sell it when the cycle starts over.

    Gah, Slashdot needs a better way to log in so I don't have to post as AC w/ out wiping what I just wrote and finding the post to reply to... oh well.

  30. Re: Big capital costs = up front money by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2

    Only if money/supply is guaranteed. If it is not, they don't have to list it. If I'm a bread maker, I don't have to list the amount I'm paying for flour unless the contract says I'm contractually obligated to buy a certain amount at a certain price. If I have an agreement that I may buy up to X amount for Y price, it isn't an obligation. I could pay $0 amount if I chose to use another supplier. Or if I bought enough to cover me for the next quarter. It all matters in the agreement. Many are saying that the memory suppliers got burned by Apple time so they wouldn't enter into any fixed agreements would they?

    --
    Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
  31. Re:american companies have quit looking long term by Patch86 · · Score: 2

    What is needed is for an EMPLOYEE STOCK. One that is tied to profits, and is not allowed to be sold on the open markets. Yes, basically, an ESOP. However, they need to make it so that NO employee is allowed to own any public stock in the industry.

    What you are describing is a mutual business or workers co-operative; where all employees own a portion of the business, are entitled to vote at AGMs and share in the profit, but the share of ownership is non-transferable- it lasts exactly as long as you are an employee. Additional capital can be raised on the open market as publicly tradeable bonds (such as PIBS), which more or less function as non-voting shares.

    This is a sentiment I whole heartedly agree with. Mutual businesses have shown themselves to be (as a rule) more stable and more long-term viable than PLCs time and time again.