Slashdot Mirror
Half a Billion PCs To Ship In 2013, As Desktops and Laptops Dip But Tablets Grow
An anonymous reader writes "The PC market (desktops, notebooks, and tablets) is expected to see almost half a billion units ship this year, 493.1 million to be exact, representing 7 percent year-on-year growth. Unsurprisingly, the key driver behind this growth will be tablets, accounting for 37 percent of the overall market and seeing 59 percent growth to 182.5 million units. The latest estimates come from Canalys, an independent analyst firm. Nevertheless, it's worth emphasizing that these are estimates, though they do line up with what the broader industry is seeing: desktops are down, laptops are down, but tablets are up."
And who said PCs are dying? Easy to solve that problem...
All we need to do is redefine what a PC is (desktops, notebooks, and tablets)!
Problem Solved!
Simples!
if i understand correctly they count tablets (i.e ipad) but only if they are big, smaller (i.e ipod touch) is not counted. tablets should probably be counted in a mobile category along with smartphones.
Blame Microsoft Windows 8... for having a Tablet interface on a non-interface hardware.
However thanks to XBOX ONE, PC market might increase in gaming.
The Metro interface in Windows 8 which they released last year is faily innovative.
Millions of geeks saddled with supporting family and friends who have no business getting near a general purpose computer, celebrate the advent of tablets for browsing/email/casual gaming.
Statistics making the irrelevant relevant since the 1850's
Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.
faily innovative
Sounds about right.
When did they start?
Altair BASIC
PC's are big, expensive, power hungry and noisy.
Tablets are small, cheap, portable, silent, generally have a camera, speakers, and microphone which gives them built in telephony features, and an easy UI. I can buy a decent tablet for less than $100 on eBay or the local discount store.
What are the redeeming qualities of a PC? Tactile IO: there is something to be said about a typing with a keyboard as opposed to a flat screen. Better audio and video quality: its just has a bigger screen and a better presentation system then a system with micro speaker and 7" screen. Deeper interfaces. For all the issues that Window's has its can do more then a tablet OS. Modularity, Upgrade-ability, and repair-ability: If I want a bigger screen I buy one for my PC. If want bigger screen in tablet I have to buy a whole new machine.
For these issue PC's will always be around. But they will get pushed in the development and special needs category in the next decade or so. Tablets will keep coming down in prices. Operation system like Ubuntu that give tablets more of the PC's feature. One off devices like the Roku and game systems like the XBox One will take up the home media center and entertainment.
You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
What is called a mainframe these days hardly resembles what a mainframe was 20 years ago.
From the people at Canalys: who predict Windows Phone will overtake iPhone in 2017. Gartner claims this will happen by 2015, and IDC claims this will happen in 2016.
Analysts: Telling their clients what they want to hear since 1950.
When did they start?
Altair BASIC
Since when is porting a language interpreter innovative?
Sales of men's ties continued to grow this year, a category that now includes neckties, bow ties, and t-shirts.
sorry, posting to undo a mod glitch
Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
These classifications are just plain daft! :- (1) PCs. (2) Tablets and similar (i.e. handheld and mobile devices with touchscreen interface) and (3) smartphones.
A PC is a proper computer that sits on (or under) your desk and traditionally has a mouse and keyboard for input, and a seperate, large screen. It does all the web stuff (email, farcebook, twatter etc) and is also a creative/business tool and workstation.
Tablets are NOT PCs, any more than posh phones are.
There is a strong case for having three broad classifications
Smivs on the intertubes!
Yes, but I'm also saddened for a generation of kids who grow up interacting w/ computers to only consume media, not to create.
Steve Jobs put forth that computers were ``bicycles for the mind'' [1] --- but this switch to tablets is taking general purpose computers out of the hands of our kids and replacing it w/ an interactive TV. While there have been some web mentionings of it [2] I can't find a copy of the ad, or a full set of the quotes. [3]
Where are the brilliant creativity and programming tools for Tablets? (and I say this as a person who uses Autodesk Sketchbook, Creaturehouse Expression, Futurewave SmartSketch, Macromedia FreeHand, Runtime Revolution and Lotus Improv on his Tablet PC)
I'd love to have a list of great creativity tools for tablets (though I wonder how much good it'll do --- I've been unsuccessful in getting my son to d/l and install Petit Computer [4] )
1 - http://folklore.org/StoryView.py?story=Bicycle.txt
2 - http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2011/12/21/steve-jobs-bicycle-for-the-mind-1990/
3 - http://creativityandinnovation.blogspot.com/2011/10/steve-jobs-amazing-quotes.html
4 - http://www.petitcomputer.com/
Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
A PC is a proper computer
A "proper computer"? A tablet or a smartphone or even a pocket calculator are proper computers. They are all general purpose computers with a CPU, RAM and storage. I agree with your premise that the market segmentation matters between tablets and PCs but they are both "proper computers" by any reasonable definition. The only real difference between them is the software that determines the interface. You could easily take the tablet and put a mouse and keyboard on it just like you could take a PC and put a touchscreen on it. The segments matter because they are optimized for particular uses right now but the segments are going to converge over time. The line between a tablet and a PC is going to blur and Google, Apple and Microsoft have already started the process.
yes, if you claim that tablets are "personal computers", you can lump them together, but I am tired of the rhetoric, especially from companies like Apple, that boast how it's the post PC era and claim how wildly successful their iPad's are in defining the post-PC era, but then lump iPads with Macs when they want to boast about how they are the #1 PC seller over Dell and HP.
Also why a tablet is not a PC is you still can't, for the most part, develop on it. While tablets like Surface Pro allow you to develop apps directly only it, tablets like the iPad are still woefully incapable of developing "true" apps for it. Sure it has a slew of Fisher Price paint-by-numbers like App dev kits you can get for the iPad. Developing an App these days still requires an "application" and "applications" run on PC's, not Tablets. It's why Apple has seen wild success in the Mac since the iPhone and iPad were released, Apple wants devs to buy "PCs" to support their "Post-PC" era.
I will put tablets into the PC category when they have all the features of a PC, including the ability to develop on it. But as long as there is a lack of some features on a tablet claiming it is a PC is like claiming your camera or Nest themostat is a PC just because it has a screen and a processor in it.
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
PCs are, as many of us agree, not dying, but they are changing and becoming a niche product -- again.
The term "personal computer" was in a way a misnomer, because personal computers existed before: we called them "workstations", and at the time they were quite a revolution, because we could do whatever we wanted with them instead of sharing computing time on Unix boxen, VAX, or mainframes. They were also super expensive, enough that they were not worth the money except for specific tasks where computing independence was absolutely required,
The "personal computer" revolution should really have been called the "small office computer" or "home computer" revolution: these were new kinds of "workstations" that were cheap enough that we could buy them for ... small offices and homes.
I predict that we're moving back in time, in a way. Most consumers would prefer tablets and similar devices. For those of us that need serious computing power, we will still have our computers to buy. But they will likely be targeted and priced accordingly for the "prosumer" market. It would be easy to buy a cheap tablet, but forget about cheap laptops: manufacturers won't make them because they won't sell well. Instead, they'll focus on premium desktop computers for premium users.
So let's call them "workstations" again. Meanwhile the term "personal computer" may finally make perfect sense for phones and tablets: truly "on-person" computers.
BING = Ballmer Is No Guru.
When did they start?
Altair BASIC
Since when is porting a language interpreter innovative?
1975
"The PC market (desktops, notebooks, and tablets)"
One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn't belong. Can you tell which one of these things it is by the time some dumbass writes an article about it?
Tablets are not PCs! They can't run x86 or x64 software! They're impossible to type on! They're not PCs! If they're PCs then so is my phone and my PSP.
The real computing market is saturated... but not the market for idiot-viewer devices. My old homebrew OC Intel E8400 desktop (with recent SSD upgrade) does just fine on my Matlab, C++, ..., and Office tasks. As a mathematician, I feel no need to build a new machine. OTOH, if all I did was watch movies and posture on Facebook, then the new fondleslabs would be calling.
My wife is a consulting engineer and requires portability. For many times the cost of my desktop her recent high-end laptop gets barely acceptable performance and requires a second (large) monitor when in the office. After trying my old, but faster desktop, she's now considering a desktop even with the synch issues that presents when she is on the road. The fondleslabs would be great for travel, but can't do the job.
Agreed. If you count tablets as "PCs" then you should include smartphones. So don't.
I have a BenQ S6 that I still use all the time. It was manufactured in 2008 (and discontinued soon thereafter), but honestly, it's not that much less powerful than some of the netbooks being sold today. It's an Atom 800MHz processor, I can easily attach a BT or USB keyboard, and runs a full Linux distribution. There was also a second iteration of the device that ran WinXP. I also have an equally old Nokia N800 that I still occasionally use (and it kind of pains me to say that 5 year old mobile tech is old - ancient, actually). It's not at all the same, because, while I can run many applications, I CAN'T run any desktop application I want.
The BenQ is a full computer in my book - albeit pocketable, able to run any desktop application. Smartphones, on the other hand, aren't able to do that, even though smartphone processors may be more powerful. At least not yet.
Sorry, but tablets are clearly distinct from PCs, they are manufactured mostly by other companies, run different software and so on.
Tablets are different but the differences are mostly superficial. The only really meaningful difference is in the software which has been tuned for how each is typically used. The underlying hardware is fundamentally the same - both have CPUs, RAM, storage, graphics processors, etc. You could trivially turn a tablet into a PC or vice-versa. There is nothing limiting Android from running on what we normally call a PC and Windows can be made to run on a tablet if desired. They are barely more different than a Mac is from a PC. Tablets and PCs are both general purpose computers and can be programmed to do the same things and even run the same software.
Furthermore the two types of devices are converging. Apple, Google and Microsoft are gradually merging the touch and mouse/keyboard interfaces with Microsoft seemingly being the most aggressive in doing so. I think if a few years you'll see a large portion of laptops replaced by tablets with some form of keyboard option. There is no reason Android or IOS cannot work with a spreadsheet just as easily as Windows or OSX. We just haven't done it yet due to present day technological limitations. Many of those will fade away in time.
Oh, and the fact that different companies might assemble the product is irrelevant to the discussion. PC makers use a variety of manufacturers too. Who made it is not the relevant bit - *what* is made is the bit that matters.
Yes, but I'm also saddened for a generation of kids who grow up interacting w/ computers to only consume media, not to create.
If you think they aren't creating you aren't looking hard enough. Just because not all of them are coding doesn't mean they aren't creating. Many of them are hugely creative and not in ways you or I would expect.
Plus what is available now is a HUGE improvement in interactivity over what was available when I was young which was just a television with a handful of channels. One way mass media is far less interactive in every meaningful way.
i'll buy a tablet when i can play some MMORPGs on them. Until then, I'm sticking to my desktop with my Nvidia Geforce 560 card. i know, tablets aren't designed to run fancy games.
i guess you can play flash-based games on them. my friend showed me his tablet. we can watch online video on it. nice to see that tablets are fast enough to stream video from Hulu and Netflix. sure beats lugging a 10 pound laptop around to a hotel.
... is POPULATION. These cretins seem to be unaware that the worlds population has been GROWING for more than the past 100 years, so of course there will be 'growth' in any given market. So what?
I have yet to meet anyone who can sincerely say that he gets some real work(TM) done with a tablet or phone.
My wife office is a medical office and they use tablets to manage everything about patient interactions. Hugely useful. I use my smartphone heavily for managing customer interactions, documenting work instruction (especially pictures), conducting time studies, managing documents and more. A lot of the sales reps I work with use iPads with a bluetooth keyboard and some custom applications to do their work when in our office. It's all "real work" and all an improvement over a PC for the purposes we use it for.
That's not to say PCs aren't hugely useful too. We certainly do for the things they are good at. It' pretty annoying to try to lug a PC of any description out onto the shop floor of my plant and do anything useful with it. I certainly need a keyboard for a lot of what I do. PCs and laptops are really only useful if you are stationed at a desk. That description doesn't fit a huge percentage of the work force.
Clever as they may be, tablets etc are never going to be as universally useful as a full desktop PC - that's why when you go into any office or workspace you will find PCs sitting on the desks.
Not as "universally useful"? Rubbish. If anything it is the other way around since a tablet is portable and a traditional desktop PC is not - even a laptop is not especially portable compared with a tablet. Not everyone sits at a desk for their job. A gigantic portion of the workforce in fact. Tablets are already beginning to be used by many of the people who don't spend 8 hours a day sitting down in front of a desk.
Realistically there is no fundamental difference between a tablet and a desktop PC. They are the exact same type of device capable of running functionally identical software. A desktop PC is optimized for certain tasks (at present) and a tablet is optimized for others but underneath there is little difference between them. Put a touch screen and some software to use it on a PC and you effectively have the same device as a tablet. Android can already use a keyboard and I think a mouse if desired. Windows 8 is a clumsy effort to merge the two. We turn the speed down on the processor in a tablet to conserve power and reduce heat but that just means you are tuning it for a particular use. You could easily make a tablet just as fast as any desktop PC - with the crappy battery life and high heat to match. We don't for obvious reasons but it isn't because they are somehow irreconcilably different.
Dreadful statistics from Canalys (whoever they are). Empty precision, undocumented analysis of dubious accuracy.
They predict 459.6 million units shipped in 2013 and 713.8 million units shipped in 2017.
These predictions have four digits of precision; their report is peppered many such high-precision statements
Worse - How did they arrived at their conclusions? In circular reasoning, they give: "Source: Canalys estimates"
Nobody at Canalys has taken introductory statistics. Nor have they any idea of how to credit research or justify numerical conclusions.
Next time a slashdot argument pops up about "should computer people study math", please reference this bogus "study".
I have YET to meet a single person that has gotten rid of their PCs for a [expletive] tablet
And I have yet to meet another regular user of a home theater PC within the sample set of my extended family. But as you're aware, that doesn't mean they don't exist, just as the lack of people switching from PC to iPad among your sample set doesn't mean people like this don't exist:
The underlying hardware is fundamentally the same - both have CPUs [...] Windows can be made to run on a tablet if desired
But incompatible instruction sets. If an operating system is non-free, its publisher has to make a business decision to port the operating system to a particular device. And Microsoft has made a business decision to lock third-party desktop apps out of the ARM version of Windows, making the device less useful when docked.
There is nothing limiting Android from running on what we normally call a PC [...] They are barely more different than a Mac is from a PC
What you say would have been more true prior to Apple's adoption of x86 in 2006. There exists a project to port AOSP to x86. But a lot of popular Android applications are built using the NDK and compiled only for ARM, and the publisher of each application has to make a business decision to include x86 binaries in the APK.
There is no reason Android or IOS cannot work with a spreadsheet just as easily as Windows or OSX.
Other than that Apple would frown on the interpreter needed to run spreadsheet macros under iOS.
In what sizes is the Surface Pro available? Some people need a physically large display for whatever reason, be it low vision or wanting to view two documents side-by-side.
I remember Jobs saying general purpose computers are like trucks. Some people will always need trucks to haul things but most people really need a car or other forms of transportation.
Jbolden mentioned that analogy earlier. So what should someone do who only occasionally needs to use a truck? I seem to remember that a lot of people have been buying SUVs because they can act as a car most of the time but as a truck when needed.
Maybe not every kind of creation is the creation of computer software?
Consider a high school student who owns an iPad and then discovers that she has to take a programming class before graduating, and that the tools needed for doing homework aren't available for iPad. What's the next step? Sell the iPad and buy a low-end PC?
limited number of people that want/need to learn programming
It's not "limited" when a high school makes it a requirement for graduation, just as algebra, chemistry, and the six best-known Shakespeare tragedies have long been requirements. The college I went to made Introduction to Programming a first-year prerequisite even for people not going into computer science. As things like that filter down from college into the third and fourth years of the college-prep track of high school, much as calculus has done, we'd better hope that the Raspberry Pi stays in production.
We don't want to limit mainstream computing to what will make a good programming platform. That's a niche use of computers.
At some level, it doesn't have to be a "good" programming platform, just a programming platform at all. Apart from Codea, the iPad has failed even that.
If you need something small, just pick a small form factor. There are models at 13 or 11 inches
The problem is that they stopped making the 10 inch ones at the end of last year, and the larger bag needed to carry a 13" laptop tends to be a magnet for thieves.
A tablet or a smartphone or even a pocket calculator are proper computers. They are all general purpose computers with a CPU, RAM and storage.
A tablet running Android or a smartphone running Android is general-purpose and is just as much a PC as anything running Windows 7, Windows 8, or Mac OS X. An iPad or iPhone is not because there exist purposes that Apple explicitly bans on these devices.
I only include machines with x86 derived CPUs, designed to run DOS/windows.
For those, I'd use the term "Lenovo compatible" personal computers (formerly "IBM compatible" until sometime in 2005). Macs have been personal computers since 1984; the product line became Lenovo compatible a little over two decades later once Apple switched to x86 CPUs and made Boot Camp available.
Also why a tablet is not a PC is you still can't, for the most part, develop on it. While tablets like Surface Pro allow you to develop apps directly only it, tablets like the iPad are still woefully incapable
I have a cheapie $100 quad-core ARM tablet with Android. I can put Ubuntu on it
TheSkepticalOptimist was referring to the iPad, which Apple cryptographically locked down specifically to prevent what you went on to describe. Your Android tablet that you rooted and installed Ubuntu on is ultimately more like a Surface Pro than like an iPad.
You seem to be defining the category of hardware by the software running on it.
If a piece of hardware is cryptographically locked to run only one piece of software, then the hardware and software need to be considered together as a unit. For example, a Wii game console and a Macintosh computer with a G3 processor have the same CPU, both have an ATI GPU, and a Wii even looks like a Mac mini. The defining difference between a Wii and a G3 Mac is the software. The Mac ran Mac OS X and explicitly supported homemade applications. The Wii, on the other hand, verifies the digital signature of all applications against Nintendo's certificate and doesn't (officially) allow a retail console's owner to add an additional root of trust.
Tablets are not PCs! They can't run x86 or x64 software!
Can a modern PC run software made for MS-DOS or Windows 3.1?
They're impossible to type on! They're not PCs!
All-in-one desktops have an external Bluetooth keyboard. Tablets have an external Bluetooth keyboard. The big difference is that tablets also have a multi-hour UPS.
If they're PCs then so is my phone and my PSP.
Your phone is a PC if it supports what Android calls "Unknown sources" or USB debugging. Your PSP is a PC if it has custom firmware.
Don't you get x86 builds enabled by default if you use a reasonably recent NDK version?
Even if you do, a lot of existing applications on the Store probably aren't built using bleeding-edge NDK, and some may have had x86 binaries stripped out to fit under Google's 50 MB limit for an APK.
If her parents were able to get her an iPad, they can almost certainly afford to get her a low end PC.
Unless they're still paying off the iPad. Or unless they follow the practice of delaying the purchase of new computer hardware until mid-December, a practice that I find harmful but which is common in the United States.