US, Russia Agree On Plan To Dispose of Syria's Chemical Weapons
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has announced an agreement between the U.S. and Russia on a plan for removing and destroying Syria's chemical weapons.
"Damascus will be given one week from now to give an inventory of its chemical arsenal and will have to allow international inspectors into Syria 'no later than November,' Kerry said after a third day of intense negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva." The weapons must all be eliminated by mid-2014. "If Syrian President Bashar Assad fails to meet the demands, then a resolution to enforce compliance would be sought at the U.N. Security Council, Kerry said. The action could include sanctions, and Kerry said that the U.S. would reserve the right to use military force, but Russia remains opposed to any armed intervention." President Obama said, "The use of chemical weapons anywhere in the world is an affront to human dignity and a threat to the security of people everywhere. We have a duty to preserve a world free from the fear of chemical weapons for our children."
...someone to explain to me why killing people with chemical weapons is somehow worse than killing them with bullets.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has announced an agreement between the U.S. and Russia on a plan for removing and destroying Syria's chemical weapons.
I don't understand why we have to resort to reasonable non-violent solutions when we had a perfectly good rash hotheaded answer in bombing the bejeezus out of them. When will we stop the sanity?!?
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I dare the US, Russia, Canada, the UK, or any other nation to try to get an accurate inventory out of their militaries in only a week.
Furthermore, the US has been working on destroying their chemical weapons for THIRTY YEARS. They're still talking several more years to dispose of roughly the same amount as Syria has, with the destruction plants pretty much already built.
This agreement seems to be set up to fail. I realize some sort of numbers and deadlines had to be put out there, but I guarantee they won't be meeting this schedule.
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
to kill children with and you are ok!
This is a reasonably good outcome. Yes, it increases Russian influence in the Middle East, but so what? The U.S. now imports 36% of the oil it uses, down from 60% in 2006. The Middle East is losing its strategic importance to the US.
Jeffrey Lewis over at Arms Control Wonk give some thoughts about the nuts and bolts of eliminating Syria's chemical weapons, the link is a few days old but I expect us still valid http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/6807/syria-cw-elimination-modalities
It's about the shooter and the target, the same way terrorism is defined. *Point the gun the other way, and be my friend*
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
Any entry level chemist and minimal funding can make several flavors of nasty agents, including the sarin they are discussing.
Heck some cults have done it in the past, and used them, I just can't for the life of me remember their name(s) at the moment.
a handful of selfish greedy people are no match for millions of selfish, greedy people -u4ya
I thought the US Administration's goal was to punish Assad for the large-scale use of chemical weapons with a "limited" military strike. How exactly does destroying the weapons count as punishment?
It's a bit like me turning in my guns to the cops if I commit a murder and that being the end of it.
It almost makes one think that this is really about Obama saving face for making a stupid comment about a "red line". Was Obama prepared to kill more innocent people in an ineffectual missile strike to save face? Now the Russians have given him an out are we not going to punish Syria after all? Hypocrisy?
When someone points a gun at you and threatens to kill you, and someone else points a gun at them and says "look, you can kill that guy, but I'll kill you," that's not getting rolled. That's getting stopped. Getting rolled is when they take something from you while you're sleeping. Here, nothing was taken other than the opportunity to buy some new tomahawk missiles. Effectively, Putin saved the American taxpayers from getting rolled.
Some chemical weapons have significant commercial uses -- chlorine, phosgene, even nerve agents as pesticides (sarin is an organophosphate, just like common insecticides). Any nation with a reasonably competent chemical industry can turn the stuff out in lots.
References:
http://www.transparencymarketresearch.com/phosgene-market.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organophosphate_compound
Unlike fissionables, biological weapons, or even sophisticated conventional arms, pretty much any nation with a university and few bucks can produce and weaponize chemicals. Doing it on a massive scale and producing weapons that are useful on a battlefield against prepared soldiers is much harder, enough so that most nations consider it not worth the bother.
But getting them into field proven artillery shells, ones in use all over the planet is a new thing. And something the Syrians have managed to do.
Also, scale matters....
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
The 'proposal' was Kerry's. Russia and Syria said, "Let's go for it". I'm only wondering if that response was expected or not.
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
Nope. The United States' strategy is to control OTHER country's oil imports. The United States only imports a small amount of its oil from the Middle East.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo
I think there was another or two.
The process that seems to be difficult isn't creating the gas but increasing it's purity in a binary precursor solution so the agents don't degrade and become useless when needed. Another problem is mixing them upon delivery. Artillery shells generally have a glass like divider between two chemicals that will break when being fired and mix due to the rotation of the shells as they fly through the air. This also makes accidents with the weapons limited on damage and keeps them safe for storage and transportation. It also makes them ineffective delivery systems for IEDs like we found out in Iraq circa 2004 when insurgents used an 155mm sarin gas shell to blow up a convoy. Only two or three US soldiers got exposed and it was minimal exposure requiring little treatment.
They seem to have chemical weapons too. They should be disarmed from them as well.
To me, this plan looks like a setup to disarm Syria to prevent it from attacking Israel or US invasion troops when (not if) they declare he has not cooperated enough. The same happened with the UN inspectors in Iraq, it didn't matter what they reported they just were there as an excuse to start the attack.
The US has not even declared war with Syria. Seems they learned the lesson Japan gave them in 1941 about the effectiveness of sneak attacks well.
Heck some cults have done it in the past, and used them, I just can't for the life of me remember their name(s) at the moment.
I guess you mean Aum Shinrikyo. They released sarin in five coordinated attacks on the Tokyo subway at the peak of the rush hour. As result, 13 people died and about 50 people were severly injured. The death toll was not as high as one might expect because of impurity, which caused its quick degradation.
To kill over 1400 people over a large area of open air requires completely different expertise in chemical weaponry and much larger amount of the nerve gas.
There's just a little bit of difference between teargas and Sarin.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
The US has had a lot of trouble figuring out how to detoxify its stockpile safely. Ultraviolet and soil bacteria are apparently not enough.
The Nunn-Lugar legislation was an example of what's called moral courage. It did things that felt wrong and disgraceful, sending money to a former enemy knowing it would often get stolen, to accomplish a higher goal.
Government can work if we elect sane people.
not worth the mod point.
Syria and Iraq both got their first chemical weapons from Egypt, and then went on to manufacture their own. Egypt got their first weapons from the Soviet Union.
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
100,000 or more dead in this conflict with millions displaced and refugees and the USA is running around in circles screaming like little girls becaise 1400 die due to chemical weapons? How does the method of killing have anything to do with the fact that people are dying left and right? And what gives the USA the right to judge them when the USA has one of the largest arsenals of chemical and nuclear weapons in the world? If WMD's are an affront to human dignity, then the USA is the biggest afront in the world.
From what I've read cultists also seriously kludged their deployment resulting in a good bit of the gas ending up in the ventilation shafts rather than in the subway tunnels.
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not entirely sure about the universe - Einstein
Biological weapons (not including certainly obscenely-complex biologically-derived toxins) are actually pretty easy to reproduce, depending on the agent. Viral agents can be manufactured in the same apparatus used for making vaccines. Bacterial agents can be cultured in a home-made hot-house using eggs. However the same scaling and weaponizing problems you mentioned for chemical agents apply here two. If you're interested in the subject, I highly recommend Biohazard by Ken Alibeck. It discusses the history of Soviet biological weapons programs during the later part of the Cold War.
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not entirely sure about the universe - Einstein
Syria never ratified the 1994 convention prohibiting making and ownership of chemical weapons. Neither did Israel or Egypt. It means that it is perfectly legal for them to have that weapon stockpile.
OTOH, US and Russia ratified that treaty and only disposed half of their chemical weapon stockpile. That story is not a big victory for international conventions. Just the stronger bending the arm of the weaker.
Don't we also have a duty to preserve a world free from flying killer robots for our children?
Isn't it the killing that's the terrible thing, not the method that's used? This reminds me of the stupidity of classifying some crimes as "hate crimes", as if it's worse that someone gets beat up because they're gay than if they get beat up because they're walking down the wrong street.
"Grab them by the pussy" -- President of the United States of America
I bet they're seeing the tax dollar investment in chemical weapons as a bit of a waste now that they used them like twice and the entire world stepped in to force them to destroy them. SURPRISE, they're illegal on Earth. Do they not have history class there in Syria or what? I can't imagine them being particularly cheap to assemble and store.
That's like a guy in some certain state having spent money on 50 automatic rifles and then firing one at a target once only the have the police confiscate them all since they're illegal in that state. Hmmm, not such a smart monetary expenditure at that point, huh?
Granted. There is still a danger, though, as Russia prepares to re-approach the world stage. If it does so from the perspective of loathing -- blaming the US for their economic struggles instead of their own totalitarian arrogance, then it could lead to Cold War II or World War III.
The real threat from this angle is not Russia, but Putin specifically. He still sees things largely in Cold War terms. He thinks that the US sees Russia as a caged and chained animal. That's isn't how we see them, but he's eager to force us to change our opinion. That type of brash approach could lead back to brinkmanship.
It is how we treat Putin, personally, within his position of power that will ultimately determine how Russia makes itself felt. The US could really benefit from them as a partner and ally, but we've been doing a good deal to distance ourselves from him as an individual. That is going to cost us. I just hope the price isn't exorbitant.
I won't join Slashcott. OTOH, If Beta goes live, I just won't be back until it's fixed. Sorry Dice.
It absolutely wasn't expected. I believe that this was discussed behind closed doors with Russia, but they blocked it, or were dragging their feet. When Kerry said it on tv to Syria, very sternly, he expected to be ignored. He was trying to bag a few lose international points. Putin decided that they couldn't have that. Why let the US look good, when Russia can take the credit?
I won't join Slashcott. OTOH, If Beta goes live, I just won't be back until it's fixed. Sorry Dice.
It absolutely wasn't expected.
To tell you the truth, I don't believe it. In this business there can be no surprises. The drama you see on the TV does not happen in the back rooms. In fact I don't believe they discuss chemical weapons at all, outside of prices and delivery dates. They do their business, then they put on their red noses and do a song and dance in front of the cameras, then go home and bang their wives, girlfriends, hookers, with total indifference towards anything outside the gate.
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
In international politics, surprises are bad, bad news. They make you look like you're not in control. That's precisely why Putin went along with this in the first place. It makes the US look like it's not in control, and Russia is. Kerry absolutely didn't see this one coming. (He may have secretly been hoping for something like it, but he really didn't expect the Russian back-hand.)
I won't join Slashcott. OTOH, If Beta goes live, I just won't be back until it's fixed. Sorry Dice.
From what I've read cultists also seriously kludged their deployment resulting in a good bit of the gas ending up in the ventilation shafts rather than in the subway tunnels.
Though deployment of Sarin was far from perfect, the gas was released mostly inside of trains, so I am not sure why ventilation shafts playing any important role in that. In any case, despite a huge number of people who were exposed to the sarin, only very few of them died, because of impurity.
There was another attacked conducted by Aum Shinrikyo just 9 months prior to the attack on the Tokyo subway. In that attack sarin was released in one neighbourhood on unsuspected people late in the vening, which caused seven deaths (plus one more victim, who suffered severe brain damage, died 14 years later). So, this is a scale that a well orgganized terrorirst group can achieve.
The death toll in the Ghouta attacks in Syria clearly indicates that military-grade gas and delivery systems were used. I think there will be more evidences when the UN report will be released.
Poof, oh we made a mistake. No more chems? Magic?
"President Obama said, "The use of chemical weapons anywhere in the world is an affront to human dignity and a threat to the security of people everywhere. We have a duty to preserve a world free from the fear of chemical weapons for our children."
The United States needs to start dumping its own stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons then.....
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