Isaac Asimov's 50-Year-Old Prediction For 2014 Is Viral and Wrong

Daniel_Stuckey writes "The media is currently praising Isaac Asimov's vision for 2014, which he articulated in a New York Times opinion piece in 1964. The sci-fi writer imagined visiting the 2014 World Fair, and the global culture and economy the exhibits might reflect. NPR called his many predictions, which range from cordless smart telephones, to robots running our leisure society, to machine-cooked 'automeals,' 'right on.' Business Insider called the forecast 'spot on.' The Huffington Post called the projections 'eerily accurate.' The only thing is, they're not. Taken as a whole, Asimov's vision for 2014 is wildly off. It's more that 'Genius predicted the future 50 years ago' makes for a great article hook. Asimov does hit a couple pretty close to home: He got pretty close to guessing the world population (6.5 billion); he anticipated automated cars ('vehicles with 'robot brains'"); and he seems to have described the current smartphone/tablet craze ('sight-sound' telephones that 'can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books.') But he also thought we'd have a colony on the moon, be living under a global population control regime, eating at multi-flavored algae bars, and letting machines prepare us personalized meals. Most divergent of all, he believed that increasing automatization of labor would spawn not inequality or joblessness, but spiritual malaise."

Comments

Link to Asimov's actual article

[fv]

The summary links to four different commentaries but not Asimov's original article. I'd rather get it from the source.

Re:Link to Asimov's actual article

[Samantha Wright]

Not to be confused with this link to when we discussed these predictions on Slashdot, back in August. Really, I'm surprised Asimov didn't predict that we'd still have dupes in 2014.

Re:Link to Asimov's actual article

[MozeeToby]

The science and technology are amazingly accurate, the social and cultural changes are not even close; and really the social and cultural issues are far more important. A guaranteed income, mass joblessness, and and strict population controls would all have much, much larger effects on the world we live in than video conferencing and drones on Mars.

Re: Link to Asimov's actual article

[ultranova]

Rather than pay my employees more so I can stay in business, but make less money myself, I too could simply not work and make a decent wage.

Your business is obviously not providing much, if any, added value if you can't make it profitable without an endless supply of desperate people to exploit. It would be an awesome boost to economy to have such living dead enterprises go under and release the resources they've tie up for the use of actually profitable ones.

I beg to differ

[vikingpower]

Most divergent of all, he believed that increasing automatization of labor would spawn not inequality or joblessness, but spiritual malaise.

How is this different from what we have now, I insist and ask ?

Re:I beg to differ

[mwvdlee]

There is a lot less influence from religion and a far greater part of social contact is indirectly, through devices.
Our current spiritual "average" situation may wel look like malaise to somebody living in 1964.

Re:I beg to differ

[i kan reed]

Keep in mind Asimov was an avowed atheist, and his description of "spiritual malaise" referred more to human nature, and less to going to church.

Re:I beg to differ

[Intron]

Most divergent of all, he believed that increasing automatization of labor would spawn not inequality or joblessness, but spiritual malaise.

How is this different from what we have now, I insist and ask ?

The 60s were different in that they were one of the few times when there wasn't increasing inequality/joblesness - people married young and could hold on to a job for 50 years - which is the outlier, not the historical norm. Just look at the 19th century by comparison. For a bit more discussion, see here.

Having lived through that period, there was a general feeling that we could do anything: stop wars, have civil rights, go to the moon, end poverty by sharing as taught in the bible^W the Whole Earth Catalog. It was a dream, but a pretty good one. Even though the war in Iraq was as unjust and pointless as Vietnam, there was a lot less marching and rock-throwing. People seem to not believe that they can change things. I would call that a malaise.

Re:I beg to differ

[Stormy Dragon]

This is a myth that's repeatedly been debunked. US industrial output has grown steadily since the 1960's, it's only industrial employment that has been dropping:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/us-manufacturing-is-not-dead.html

Manufacturing jobs are not going over sees, they're disappearing completely. Much like we once went from a society where most people were involved in agriculture to one where a few percent can produce more food than the rest of society can consume, we're now in similar process in manufacturing.

Biggest oops

[blogan]

He keeps thinking there will be a 2014 World's Fair.

Re:Biggest oops

[ahaweb]

The next world's fair will be in Milan, Italy, 2015. http://www.milanworldsfair.com/

Re:And your predictions?

[MBGMorden]

Seeing your gripe at Asimov's article I am very curious... What are your predictions for 2064?

The Year of Linux on the Desktop?

Not bad

[BringsApples]

From one of TFAs:

... mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine.

But what he failed to grasp was that the mindset of people in general changes. So if we're all bored, all we'll do is invent shit like facebook, and call it 'an integrated part of our society'. But he knew that 'passing time' isn't just some thing to do. This guy was a genius to conclude that robots would be doing a lot of the labor that men used to do, and since the people would be so great in numbers, they'd get bored to such an extent that would cause them mental repercussions. This is beyond what anyone would have been able to experience up to the 60's, in my opinion.

Re:Only Art

[jedidiah]

Don't be so dismissive of recipes.

The 2nd thing that the printing press was used for was recipes.

All that diveregent? Really?

[K. S. Kyosuke]

I have yet to see how inequality and joblessness don't cause "spiritual malaise" as a consequence. At least they certainly have "serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences", even if not along the same pathway. Ask your psychiatrist.

"eating at multi-flavored algae bars"

[Culture20]

I eat at Taco Bell semi-regularly.

Why so negative?

[OblongPlatypus]

Sure, "spot on" is obviously stretching it, but considering the time scale I think he did really well - I doubt anyone today would be able to predict 2064 equally well. Some good examples from the original article:

State of robotics: "Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence."

State of space exploration: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works."

Smartphones: "Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books."

Fiberoptics for data transmission: "Laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material and atmospheric interference."

Flatscreens: "As for television, wall screens will have replaced the ordinary set."

Slightly too optimistic on the proliferation of programming skills, but remarkable considering the state of computers in 1964: "All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary "Fortran""

Spritual Malaise is exactly where we are

[Gothmolly]

If "spiritual malaise" doesn't describe 21st century America, then I don't know what does.

Re:And your predictions?

[Sperbels]

Asimov was a smart dude, and he did a lot better at predicting 50 years away than most "technologists"/"futurists" would today.

Well, it's rather simple to see the future when you're the founder of psychohistory. Duh.

Not that inaccurate.

[wcrowe]

I don't know about Asimov being that inaccurate. Keep in mind that a lot of what he is describing are exhibits at the 2014 World's fair. These would still be futuristic things even in 2014, but technologically possible. Many of the things he describes are devices or systems that are technically possible, but still not quite reasonable from an economic perspective. Obviously he is way off on some things, but that just goes to show how difficult it is to predict future developments.

Summary is wrong

[goombah99]

But he also thought we'd have a colony on the moon, be living under a global population control regime, eating at multi-flavored algae bars, and letting machines prepare us personalized meals

multi-flavor algae: Sodium alginate is a major food additive. many flavors.

  global population control regime:
        china we all know about:
        uzbekistan: forced sterilization or IUD.
        india: more than two children and you can't particiapte in many elective offices
        iran: manadatory contraception to obtain marriage lic.
      USA: ask Sarah Palin what she thinks of Title X
      Israel: ordered sterilizations.

Auomated custom meal preparation robots:
          http://www.psfk.com/2012/11/burger-making-robot.html#!rgOyn

Automated labor sparks malaise:
        Foxcon suicide fences. no layoffs just repetitive work that machines won't do.

Re:Summary is wrong

[complete loony]

Automated custom meal preparation robots

Go to your local supermarket and really look around. How much of the foods you see purchase there were made exclusively by human hands?

There is a huge amount of automation in the food industry. It just scales better further up the supply chain.