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Figuring Out the iPad's Place
An anonymous reader writes "One of the most interesting notes from Apple's recent quarterly report was that iPad sales are down. Pundits were quick to jump on that as evidence that the iPad was just a fad, but there were still more than 16 million units sold. iPads, and the tablet market as a whole, clearly aren't a fad, but it's also unclear where they're going. They're not convincingly replacing PCs on one end or phones on the other. Meanwhile, PCs and phones are both morphing into things that are more like tablets. New form factors often succeed (or fail) based on what they can do better than old form factors, and the iPad hasn't done enough to make itself distinct, yet. Ben Thompson had an insightful take on people demanding desktop functionality from the iPad: 'This sounds suspiciously like the recommendation that the only thing holding the Macintosh back was its inability to run Apple II programs. It's also of a piece with the vast majority of geek commentary on the iPad: multiple windows, access to the file system, so on and so forth. I also think it's misplaced. The future of the iPad is not to be a better Mac. That may happen by accident, just as the Mac eventually superseded the Apple II, but to pursue that explicitly would be to sacrifice what the iPad might become, and, more importantly, what it already is.'"
It exists already in the niche that exists between the full computer experience, and the phone experience. Why the hell would it have an infinite growth and replace computers and phones?
Perhaps sales are slowing down because of market saturation. The iPad was the first of its kind (that people actually bought, used, and liked). Almost everyone who wants one has probably bought one and the slowing rate reflects market saturation. A diminishing pool of new buyers and a steady pool of people replacing older models would help to explain the "dwindling" sales.
I thought the iPad was Blizzard's new Hearthstone console.
Sales are down because we already have one and don't need two. The things are not nearly as disposable as people seem to think.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
I [...] still believe what I wrote back in 2011 when I said that all the general-purpose devices we use for computing and communications–desktop computers, laptops, smartphones, tablets and maybe even a do-everything console like the Xbox One–are PCs. They just happen to come in a variety of form factors, with different capabilities.
To me, it's not a personal computer unless the person who owns it controls what computing is done on it. Nintendo has rejected games such as The Binding of Isaac, and Apple has rejected applications such as WiFi-Where. This makes these platforms not general-purpose. Thus there's no "do-everything console" unless you count set-top Android devices such as OUYA or set-top PCs such as the forthcoming Steam Machines.
I would like it if different pass codes unlocked to different layouts. This way I can have a more restricted layout and app for my son.
Brought to you by Team SPAM! where we believe: "Information in the noise!"
Agreed. If only there were an OS that had the same user experience for phones, tablets and PCs...
The tablet market gas gone through the early adopters and is maturing. It also appears to have a longer replacement cycle time than say cell phones, probably do to cost and newer models do not necessarily offer must have features, unlike phones which go from 2G-3G-4G LTE. Cost also figure into replacement time.
Right know, iPads and other tablets are good enough, even several generations old ones, for the uses that do better on a tablet than a cell phone but don't need a PC to be acceptable. For example, reading eBooks, browsing the web, light office suite use, etc. Despite speed increases and better screens, a Gen 1 iPad is still pretty good at that so there in no compelling reason to shell out $500 or more for a new one.
That said, tablets need to migrate beyond the "it's a mobile PC" mentality to becoming an information appliance that is used to get desired information in a variety of settings. In short, a mobile gateway to information that is now accessed in other ways and where a PC is to cumbersome and a phone too small.A good example is Synology's video viewer app. You can access videos from the NAS on an iPad (or phone) and use airplay to put it to a TV; bypassing a separate PC server for playback. If you leave the room you can continue to watch on the iPad or send it to another TV in the room you go to. In short, the iPad is the common connector for a better viewing experience; not a replacement viewer.
I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
Stupid-ass designers are forcing that shit down our throats without our willful participation.
For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
As for iPads, Cook still believes tablets will quickly replace PCs
That's not what Tim Cook's predecessor thought. Steve Jobs always used to claim that iPhone and iPad are to the Mac as cars are to trucks. The iPad is not a truck. Case in point: I'd be surprised if tablets replaced Apple's own PCs for running Xcode.
A tablet doesn't need a "full desktop experience" to run an SSH server or a proper copy of CUPS.
Guess what? In terms of sales, the ability to run SSH or CUPS is somewhat less important than the ability to run knitting pattern apps.
well it's not DOA for people who spend time away from a traditional computer. i have an ipad 2 and 4
my kids play games on it
remote control for apple TV, roku, xbox and other devices
i stream live TV via the time warner cable app and netflix and HBO Go. I can watch Got in the kitchen away from my kids. i can sit with my wife while she watches american idol on the TV, i'll watch a game on the ipad
i can read a book on it
Google docs and Pages i can finally finish that novel i started writing. anywhere
i can order airline tickets and check into my flight on the couch
dozen other uses that have nothing to do with file systems or geeky stuff
Maybe in a couple of year's I'll replace mine.
I wonder whether part of the problem is that after having one of these devices, people aren't so keen to replace them. Our third gen iPad is about two years old, and already we have problems with app upgrades breaking things, and of course Apple themselves pushing us to upgrade to a new version of iOS that gets terrible reviews. Plus the general closed ecosystem isn't an obvious downer for most people when you buy the first time, but after finding all the little frustrating things it can't do, I can see that at least some significant proportion of users might be put off.
Tablets as a format seem to be useful for a certain niche: basically, they're good for receiving information and some basic interaction, but not serious interaction/content creation. But there are more tablets than just Apple's, and Android tablets seem to be increasing their market share at Apple's expense. So it might be a market saturation issue with the tablet format, but I suspect there's more to it than just that in the specific case of iPads.
If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
"Figuring Out the iPad's Place" ?
The bathroom. So you can browse while you download.
For years we've had snobbish hipster tech journalists gleefully informing us that we are now in the "Post-PC era", that our watt-hungry desktop dinosaurs are on the way out, that they are being replaced by a constellation of sexy, small gadgets like smartphones and tablets.
Except it isn't happening.
Every one of those goddamned articles was written on a laptop or desktop computer. You, fair reader, do your job or schoolwork on a laptop or desktop PC. The many limitations of tablets makes the idea of performing any meaningful work on them downright laughable.
I have an iPad Air and Zagg keyboard case for it. Toys. Both of them, toys. Poor keyboard experience meets poor word processing experience (unless having Lou Ferrigno sized deltoids from constant arm extension is your thing) meets horrendously poor multitasking meets a giant bucket of buyers remorse.
If I didn't really enjoy playing Hearthstone on my iPad Air, I would have eBayed it weeks ago. I rarely use it for anything else.
With factory refurb'd Macbook Airs popping up on Apple's "Special Deals" page now at $599 (when in stock), the argument for buying a $500 iPad Toy to play Angry Birds on the toilet and watch "Sherlock" on that flight to Denver to visit your in-laws just.. doesn't make good sense anymore, when for $100 more you can get a real computer.
So my operating theory is - Not only are people holding on to the tablets they already own, softening sales of new models, but they have also already discovered they're horrible to type on, make overweight poor quality e-readers, have games that you tire of after 1 hour and you feel no urgent need to run out and drop $500 on a new one that will only continue to do all those things poorly, but is a tiny bit thinner.
THIS SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK.
Apple specifically addressed this during their conference call. Sales are not down; if you look at two quarters combined, sales are flat or slightly up. Sales only appear to be down year-over-year because they had supply issues five quarters ago, which pushed sales from that quarter (which was low) into the start of the next quarter (which was high).
This is why I got the Surface 2 (not pro). It has a real file system. I can mount network drives. I can go to the command prompt (or powershell). Sure it's locked down as far as what apps you can run, but you can compile things yourself using the free version of Visual Studio. Personally I think it's a lot less locked down than Android or iPad. And the hardware is quite expandable. It has USB3, so you can plug in all kinds of external peripherals. It's not as open as a Linux tablet would be, but I don't think I've seen anything like that out in the wild that actually worked well. I think the only thing more open is the Surface Pro, but that's a little outside my price range.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
Strange... I control what computing is done on my iPad.
Not if a particular computing is among the classes of computing that the App Store Review Guidelines forbid. Then you have to buy a second computer (a Mac) and pay a recurring iOS Developer Program fee to take control of your device. By then, you own the hardware but lease the privilege to use it.
By your definition, a modern, high-spec Windows box isn't a 'personal computer' because I can't choose to run AS400 software on it.
You can choose to recompile your AS400 software for it, or you can run an emulator. Apple, on the other hand, forbids emulators that allow users to add their own software.
(Someone other than me made a decision which prevents me from doing so.)
It's not just "someone other than [you]". I'm referring to restrictions put in place by the manufacturer of the device on which you want to run applications, not restrictions put in place by the publisher of an application. If a particular application is proprietary, binary-only software available only for System i, it's not the PC maker that put this restriction in place but the application publisher.
We have a couple iPads in our house, and I find myself resentful of the price to upgrade, so we haven't. The competitors are nearly as good, and cost half as much. The price points for more memory in particular outrages me. Why is anyone shipping a premium tablet starting at 16 GB of non-upgradeable storage these days!? How can you justify another $100 just to get to 32 GB?! 64 GB should be the starting point for tablets in Apple's target premium price range.
Earlier on I could understand the premium price, as the competition was simply nowhere near the polish and functionality. But the extra bells and whistles Apple has added just are not keeping pace compared to the premium they are still charging.
I long ago realized I was not in their target demographic for phone and PC sales, and now I think my next tablet is not likely to be an Apple one. Somehow they feel they are exempt from following the steady march downwards of electronics prices.
Heck I'd even be interested in shelling out extra for an iMac, but every time I check they are still not upgradeable, and come with rather underwhelming processors/memory/GPU considering the extreme markup.
Oh well.
you literally named nothing a laptop wouldn't do better.
If you're doing something that doesn't involve typing, a tablet is easier to use while standing up and holding the device. That's the biggest advantage of tablets: they don't need to be set on a desk or lap.
Always connected mobility and apps: smartphone.
For which the carrier will want you to subscribe to yet another voice and data plan. Otherwise, it's just a 4" tablet like the iPod touch.
GPS: Garmin. eReader: Kindle.
Additional devices to carry and keep charged.
I'll volunteer the term "Casual Computing".
Tablets serve one particular market exceedingly well, better than any other device produced: Casual consumption.
Flipping through email. Browsing boredpanda.com. Reading documentation. Any task where the primary interaction is absorbing content, is excellent for tablets. Especially when you are doing so in a place other than your desk. I don't need a tablet when I'm at my desk. My tablet is utterly fantastic when I'm on the bus, the train, or when I'm in bed and I really really wanna show my spouse that new Hamsters Eating Burritos video.
Trying to shoehorn tablets into being a desktop replacement is just stupid. Sure, you can approach that level by buying a bluetooth keyboard and maybe a mouse if your tablet supports such things, but why would you do such a thing when using an honest to god computer is so much better for the task?
Turning them into a phone-replacement is a possibility, but only within a very limited range of use-cases.
Having a drop in sales was inevitable. Most people who really wanted one have now got one.
So what? The whole point of IOS it to make it ridiculously simple for untrained end-users. These people you speak of chose the wrong platform, and now want it to be something other than it is, so the failure is entirely theirs. If they want a phone/tablet that's like a desktop there are Windows 8, and Ubuntu phones available.
Hopefully in the future the world has increasingly little tolerance for closed platforms where a single vendor reigns over all execution.
Your reasoning is just plain incorrect. Obsolescence on Android is far worse than it is on iOS. With Android you might see one, maybe two OS upgrades before the vendor stops supporting the device. App support is even worse... every device has device-specific quirks which many app vendors on Android have NEVER bothered fix.
Developer support on iOS is far better, for far longer. Apple supports their devices far better, and for far longer.
I have an ipad 1, and an ipad 2 (and many other devices). The ipad 1 is too old, period. The cpu is too slow and it only has 256MB of ram. I still see regular developer app updates for my ipad 1 but it just can't run all the apps out there due to the tiny amount of ram it has. It can barely load some web pages. It isn't the OS's fault. The OS version has nothing whatsoever to do with it (other than developers keying off the OS version when making assumptions about RAM use). Even my second-generation ipod touch still runs Pandora, which is all it is really good for with its tiny amount of ram and slow cpu.
And frankly, Apple supported my ipad 1 for far longer than any Android vendor supported my Android devices from that era. My ipad 1 is still usable. My Android devices from that era are not. They are all dead or worthless.
My ipad 2 with 512MB of ram only has trouble with the more bloated games, and its plenty fast enough for me. It is still my go-to device when I travel. If I can only bring one thing (other than my phone), it's the ipad-2 and not the chromebook and not the nexus-7.
More importantly, Apple devices are under Apple's control, not other vendors. In particular not the phone vendors. I've had to remove most of the apps from both my android phone and my nexus 7 because so many of them access *all* my personal data and accounts these days. The telcos install all sorts of crap onto Android phones that I don't want and can't remove.
On Apple you don't have to worry about that. The App has no control over what resources it's allowed to access, the user does. My next phone is going to be an iphone-6 (my current phone is a Motorola Razr M which is great except I can't run any major apps on it any more due to security issues). And, no, running an android app that forces permissions off doesn't work either... that crashes the target app more often than not (when it works at all).
So if your complaint is that Apple is not supporting their customers, it falls flat on its face. Apple is doing a far better job than anyone else.
-Matt
Trying to shoehorn tablets into being a desktop replacement is just stupid. Sure, you can approach that level by buying a bluetooth keyboard and maybe a mouse if your tablet supports such things, but why would you do such a thing when using an honest to god computer is so much better for the task?
I can think of three reasons, from most technical to most ideological:
AFAIK that Commodore emulator got banned from the appstore because it could load arbitrary code from the internet. That means you should have been alowed to hand write your own basic code on it. (But I never tried that one).
Regarding your first question, Apples rules are openly published in the Apple forum. There is no developer account required for it.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.