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UN Study Shows Record-High Increases For Atmospheric CO2 In 2013

Figures released Tuesday by a United Nations advisory body reveal that 2013 saw new recorded highs for both carbon dioxide and methane, as well as the largest year-over-year rise in carbon dioxide since 1984, reflecting continuing worldwide emissions from human sources but also the possibility that natural sinks (oceans and vegetation) are near their capacity for absorbing the excess. From the Washington Post's account: The latest figures from the World Meteorological Organization’s monitoring network are considered particularly significant because they reflect not only the amount of carbon pumped into the air by humans, but also the complex interaction between man-made gases and the natural world. Historically, about half of the pollution from human sources has been absorbed by the oceans and by terrestrial plants, preventing temperatures from rising as quickly as they otherwise would, scientists say. “If the oceans and the biosphere cannot absorb as much carbon, the effect on the atmosphere could be much worse,” said Oksana Tarasova, a scientist and chief of the WMO’s Global Atmospheric Watch program, which collects data from 125 monitoring stations worldwide. The monitoring network is regarded as the most reliable window on the health of Earth’s atmosphere, drawing on air samples collected near the poles, over the oceans, and in other locations far from cities and other major sources of pollution. The new figures for carbon dioxide were particularly surprising, showing the biggest year-over-year increase since detailed records were first compiled in the 1980s, Tarasova said in an interview. The jump of nearly three parts per million over 2012 levels was twice as large as the average increase in carbon levels in recent decades, she said.

427 comments

  1. Meanwhile in the real world... by durrr · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    The hiatus still continues.
    And yes there is a hiatus nowdays even in the mainstream pro-agw camp, saying otherwise makes you a denier.

    1. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Informative

      Some "hiatus" with 2013 and 2012 and 2010 and 2009 and 2008 and 2007 and 2006 and 2005 and 2004 and 2003 all making the list of top 10 hottest years since we started measuring.

      Not that it matters, because you repetitive dolts have exactly zero null hypotheses that you've got any hope of establishing.

    2. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by gstoddart · · Score: 2

      saying otherwise makes you a denier

      And, yet, we've seen articles recently which say the ocean may be absorbing some of the heat, and this one saying the levels are at the highest ever and have increased by the most ever.

      So, yes, you probably are a denier, because you seem to be wanting to ignore the actual evidence out there.

      Do we understand our climate and all of the factors 100%? Nope. Do we have really strong indications we're causing change? Absolutely.

      Will we be really screwed if we keep acting like nothing is happening until it's too late? Betcherass we will.

      It's mostly the fossil fuel industry and people who own their stocks who have the most stake in saying "not to worry, nothing is happening, you can't prove it, la la la".

      It's a mentality of keep levels the same so we can keep profits up, and until we're faced with 100% irrefutable proof we'll keep claiming nothing is happening.

      That's either stupidly ignoring the problem, or actively trying to divert attention and making it sound like nothing is happening.

      That's pretty much the definition of denial.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    3. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Isn't this the report that was shown to be flawed in that NOAA started using average peak temperatures when previous reports used average over all temperatures ?

    4. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      it was cold. once. where i live.
      therefore prolonged global warming is a myth.

      because we all know anecdotal local data completely disproves long term multidecade global averages and trends.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    5. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 0

      You know that there's a drop down right there at the top that lets you look at previous years' reports

    6. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by MrKaos · · Score: 3, Interesting

      saying otherwise makes you a denier.

      No it doesn't - it just shows that you really don't give a fuck about any future human beings. It's the kind of selfishness that ignores even the slimmest chance that you are wrong because even if you are you will not have to deal with the consequences.

      You're like a screaming child that wants their own way no matter how much someone else has to suffer. You're difficult to ignore and eveyone wants to slap you.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    7. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by jellomizer · · Score: 1, Interesting

      The problem is people are still trying to convince the deniers that there is a problem.
      All this does is increase the radicalization of the deniers. The Deniers will not believe any logic or proof that you tell them. Because...
      1. They don't want to believe it. Any logic your bring up is part of a conspiracy.
      2. It is inconvenient to believe it. AKA they have a lot of money in industry that profits off of releasing global warming gasses.
      3. Their religion/philosophy/political view has chosen to not to believe it. Not form any religious text per say but because of a charismatic Person for #1 or #2 who has manipulated the text. It isn't because all these people are just brain dead followers... But because they are in a situation in their lives where they have learned growing up that they are good guys and bad guys. And the bad guys are obviously wrong, or corrupt.

      Now there are liberal agenda items that are not backed by science however they will firmly deny them as well, so it isn't that the other group is that stupid, but it is due to the human condition.

      To correct climate change, We need to stop trying to convince the deniers about the problem, they won't listen. But you need to create solutions where alternatives are available.

      For example don't mention green.
      1. It is cheaper.
      2. You have more control of your power and you are not as dependent on someone else.
      3. Jobs available in a new energy market.

      You need to get the tree huger/I HATE AMERICA type cast from the issue. That way you can sneak it into their culture without them having to really believe in global warming.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    8. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Of course, we have to define "screwed". It's incautious statements like that that fuel their paranoia and claims of "alarmism". We can quantify that harm, and it's not civilization ending.

      But it's way way way way costlier than doing nothing. From lower productivity of farms, to relocation of productive areas near sea level, to the fact the human workers get less done per day in hotter climates, to the diseases that spread better in warmer temperatures(ebola is one such disease), to the fact that warmer temperatures measurably provoke violence.

      And anyone who's done a conservative estimate of how much that will "cost" in terms of economic productivity(at 5 C) ends up coming up with much larger number than those generously analyzing the cost of infrastructure conversion.

    9. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Will we be really screwed if we keep acting like nothing is happening until it's too late? Betcherass we will.

      citation, please? Otherwise you're a chicken-little like everyone else. The earth's climate has changed. It will change. It was once hotter. It was once cooler. And it will be again. And only zealots like to label skepticism as "denier".

    10. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you understand anything AT ALL to 100%? Nope.

      But somehow you make decisions EVERY DAY about those things that you don't understand even 10%.

      Why? Because THERE IS NO NEED TO UNDERSTAND 100%.

      If it's 99% likely to be real and 1% likely to be a shibboleth, you don't go for the 100-1 shot. If you do, the bookies must fucking LOVE *you*.

      Talking of denying the facts of the past, what was the temperature when CO2 was higher? And did you remember to include the effects OF THE SUN in your facts? Because apparently you didn't, otherwise you would have noticed that despite a cooler sun, the temperatures were much higher when CO2 was higher. So it can hardly be claimed on THESE facts that CO2 has no effect.

      But your ignorance is undiminished, isn't it?

    11. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ha Ha, the hottest on record, what a laugh.

      That's like a 30 year old saying the past five years are the tallest he has ever been. But he is not growing.
      Also this points to the shortness of the temperature records with thermometers. We are snapping out of the little ice age, so warming is expected. But the medieval warm period( AD 800-1250), the Roman warm period and Minoan warm period were warmer than the current temperatures.

      Warm is good, more people die from cold than heat. Where do most people go for vacation...somewhere warm. people do well in warmth, in cold spells like the little ice age, crops fail, people die.

    12. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      If climate != weather, then why is there always some global warming advocate on the news attributing every hurricane, tornado, drought, and heat wave to global warming? It seems to me that a more accurate representation of what I'm seeing on the news would be:

      If weather = unusually-warm OR chaotic
        Then climate = weather
      If weather = unusually-cold OR mild
        Then climate != weather

      Of course, I'm sure you're going to throw some "no true Scotsman" and say that those environmental advocates on the news aren't the REAL scientists. But if that's the case, then why aren't the REAL scientists shouting down all the fake ones?

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    13. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      because.....why?
      what exactly do they get out of doing such a thing?

      There are millions of scientists involved in this worldwide.
      What do they get out of it? Public funding? Research grants? Cause Lord knows we just lavish scientists with tons of public money in this country.....no wait, thats the exact opposite of what we do. and further, they dont get to pocket what little money they do get. that's illegal.

      the ONLY climate "scientists" who get rich from their research and live high on the hog are those in the employ of the fossil fuel industries.
      Speaking of motivations...lets look at the fossil fuel industries. unlike those "lying AGW scientists", they actually do recieve tons of money from the government. hundreds of billions a year. and they make even more in profits selling their product. and they spend billions in lobbying every year.

      so yes, let's talk motivations and stakes you AC idiot.
      the phrase "global million scientist conspiracy exposed by plucky group of oil billionaires" is not reflective of reality.
      rather reality illustrates just how mentally deficient your post is.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    14. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by durrr · · Score: 1, Informative

      If natural systems can sink all supposed manmade change, why could natural systems cause all the change too? If the natural sink capability massively underrated too, what's to say there's really a cause to worry at all?

      If we really will be screwed by society being forced to change due to climate, what's to say we won't be equally or greater screwed if we're forced to change due to policy? If natural variability is underrated as suggested by the previous paragraph, what's to say we can't be fucked over twice; first by policy and then by natural climate drift? Unless you're denying ice ages we already know that natural drift have a very wide range.

      What about the people with stake in large multinational wind and solar producers claiming we can save ourself with all-renewable society? Are they saints incapable of lying, or could it be that any alarmism and climate hype serves their cause and fills their pockets?

      Why should we listen to people like you who claim that we're bound for disaster with certainity, while at the same time IPCC is revising their predictions downwards for every new report released. Why should we suppress the debate by claiming it's all settled when it obviously isn't?

      Why is polarizing hardline rethoric constantly used by environmentalists? Why is the pro-agw side always the good side and everything else is universally bad? Could it be that you're not actually seeking facts to improve earth science, but just want to advance your activist agenda and shallow ideological belief?

    15. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by JWW · · Score: 2

      When you climb to the top of a plateau you are at the highest point AND you are no longer going up.

      Both "pause in the increase in warming" and "x of the last y years are the warmest on record" can be true statements AT THE SAME TIME.

    16. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1

      you do realize what the hiatus refers to right?
      even if the hiatus as denierzs understand it were true (it's not, but just say for the moment)...it still supports the theory of global warming and does nothing to disprove it.
      then consider that deniers completely misundersdtand and mischaracterize what the hiatus even is, and their position becomes even more unteneble.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    17. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by JerryLove · · Score: 1

      If climate != weather, then why is there always some global warming advocate on the news attributing every hurricane, tornado, drought, and heat wave to global warming?

      Same reason there's always someone blaming God's wrath against immorality for disasters... because it sells.

      Of course, I'm sure you're going to throw some "no true Scotsman" and say that those environmental advocates on the news aren't the REAL scientists. But if that's the case, then why aren't the REAL scientists shouting down all the fake ones?

      That would be a tautological assertion that "true scientists" are defined as "those who support global warming".

      Real scientists can be wrong. They are wrong all the time. But we are not discussing a scientist, nor a group of scientists. We are discussing the entire community of scientists over decades. (We are also discussing easliy accessed data, such as global average temperature).

      Climate change will result in weather change (extreme dependence on initial conditions). It will also result in shifts in trends. I don't know what the specific support for, for example, an increase in hurricanes is. I don't know if that specific result is indeed caused by global warming or oother factors (though since hurricanes are powered by heat...).

      But that's the point of putting up all the talking heads... so sew confusion and dobt into established science.

    18. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by JerryLove · · Score: 1

      We don't know what will happen. a 5C drop from the beginning of the industrial revolution would put much of the world under ice. The rise? Could we have a runaway greenhouse (as the Earth has experienced runaway snowballs in the past)? Maybe. We don't truly know where it will end, but it is going to suck

    19. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Honestly, this explanation doesn't sit well with me. I'd love to get in their heads, because I don't get them. But this explanation of their behavior doesn't seem to mesh with how they act.

      They seem like people who want to imagine cynicism and naive skepticism lets them see further than everyone else. You know, like truther types do.

    20. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      ". We can quantify that harm, and it's not civilization ending.
      it most certainly can be if we don't stop emitting greenhouse gasses. The trapped energy will increase with more greenhouse gasses. If we don't stop and work on lowering it, then it won't stop.

      Now, we can do it using science, and brains, and engineering and planning. Or we can stop because the earth no longer supports humans.

      Cost is irrelevant when dealing with complete collapse. The longer we wait, the more aggressive we must be.

      To be clear, I'm not talking about tomorrow or next decade, but it can get too warm for human civilization as we know it in 100 years.
      When the heat sink are no longer available, the temp will rise even more dramatically.

      Yes, I am raising the alarm. The change we must make will take decades. There isn't a silver bullet, there isn't 1 solution. We must be aggressive in out planning.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    21. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Alioth · · Score: 1

      It's also human nature. We know we're slowly buggering things up, but it'll take a while. To fix it means a large change in the way we run our world, and it will be difficult and may cause mild discomfort in the short term. On the other hand we can simply deny it's happening and continue with the business as usual which is far easier and the path of least resistance. People don't want to feel guilty for driving an SUV either, it's easier and more consistent to deny that anything is happening rather than admitting that you're (an albeit tiny) part of the problem.

    22. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      which is surprising because American deniers keep sprouting no end of co2, hot air and bullshit after all cant let the earth get in the way of chasing every dollar like Jesus told you to,

    23. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 0

      Except, of course, we're talking about a phenomenon that doesn't operate on a year-to-year basis.

      just this century is still warming. You have to cherry pick hard to find otherwise.

    24. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by mjm1231 · · Score: 1

      If climate != weather, then why is there always some global warming advocate on the news attributing every hurricane, tornado, drought, and heat wave to global warming? It seems to me that a more accurate representation of what I'm seeing on the news would be:

      >

      Stop getting your news from shitty sources. On NPR news, this doesn't happen. Though for some reason, I have heard conservatives consider NPR to have a liberal bias.
      As to your second question, I have heard the nutty right wing rant of the jews control the media, but never heard that the scientists control the media.

      --
      Ideology: A tool used primarily to avoid the bother of thinking.
    25. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by JWW · · Score: 1

      Sure the estimate of what could happen if it warms 4C by 2100 is a large number.

      However, we are currently looking at increases in the historical record being around 0.14-0.18 degrees C per decade. Considering there are 8.5 decades left until 2100, the math says we could expect about 1.19-1.53 degrees warming by then if the decadal increase remains constant (ie. the "pause" in increases). These numbers are not 4.

      To have an increase in temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 a positive forcing feedback must take a dominant position it the climate. We have not yet found this forcing to exist. That of course doesn't mean that it doesn't but the models are predicting it and the actuals are not (as yet) showing it.

      The thing with CO2 is that increases in temperature are related to doubling of the concentration in the atmosphere. That is to say that as CO2 increases, it takes more CO2 to continue to add on more increases in temperature as concentration goes up.

      In the end it all relates to forcing. Is feedback positive and large or do negative feedback loops exist that respond to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere (increased albedo of clouds for example)? There's lots of science and studies we need to do here. What we know now is not correct (the models aren't accurate) that means we need to search for more measures to include in them.

    26. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Atrox+Canis · · Score: 1

      There are millions of scientists involved in this worldwide.

      Perhaps there are millions of scientists but are they ALL working on AGW research? I think not.

      the ONLY climate "scientists" who get rich from their research and live high on the hog are those in the employ of the fossil fuel industries.Speaking of motivations...lets look at the fossil fuel industries. unlike those "lying AGW scientists", they actually do receive tons of money from the government. hundreds of billions a year. and they make even more in profits selling their product. and they spend billions in lobbying every year.

      We might need a couple of citations here. I know there are billions of dollars involved but I rather suspect that the fossil fuel industry scientists are not getting "billions a year"

      If you tone down the rhetoric just a bit, or restate your premise to be a bit more precise, you might gain some credibility.

      Just trying to help.

      --
      Charter Member of The Committee Group For The Elimination And Eradication Of Repetitive Redundancy
    27. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      That may not be true. It seems group can actual realize the science is true. Below is a link to a graph showing belief in the science over time among the D/I/R political groups.

      images.sciencedaily.com/2013/01/130124122934-large.jpg

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    28. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      why aren't the REAL scientists shouting down all the fake ones?

      It's better to let the pious lies go than create more doubters.

    29. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      top getting your news from shitty sources. On NPR news, this doesn't happen.

      You mean this NPR?:

      http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/07/11/how-climate-change-exacerbated-the-drought/

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    30. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by JWW · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that's what I said. A pause in the increase. This means that the decade over decade increases are not becoming larger but staying the same. The rate of increase is not changing, but the temperature is increasing over time.

    31. Re: Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like you could use some anger management help.

    32. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by plover · · Score: 1

      This. Something like 5-15% of people are immune to logic, and you just have to ignore them if you want to make progress. What it means is that you have to convince more of the people in the "unknown" category. The problem is that of those logic-proof people, some have a strong financial incentive to sway opinions to their side, so it becomes a tough battle.

      --
      John
    33. Re: Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like you could use some anger management.

    34. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by bigpat · · Score: 2

      The problem is that those concerned about stopping greenhouse gas emissions don't have a viable plan without substantially increasing nuclear power production and instead those most activist about Global Climate Change are also against nuclear and have been successful at turning back the clock on nuclear power in some places.

      There is a direct correlation between the reduction in nuclear in Germany and Japan and the increased use of coal. All the gains in Solar and Wind in those countries have been eaten up by the increased use of coal. You can get rid of nuclear and accept Global Warming, or you can actually head off excessive Global Warming with an expansion of nuclear. It is a direct trade and you can't have both without some new technology that we don't have yet.

    35. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'm going to wager that you didnt watch Cosmos did you? He presented probably the simplest most accessbile explanation posssible.
      Here's a good link to the clip: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/nei...
      That or you still dont understand the concept of averages.

      It's not that "climate != weather"
      It's that climate = sum(weather) / (time*area)
      IE, climate is the average of weather over time or a region or both.

      hurricane, tornado, drought, and heat wave to global warming?

      Do those thing represent one day of local weather, or large events on large scales that last a long time?
      I'll break it down for you again, and ignore your attempt to put words in my mouth, and then tell me how I'm wrong.

      -Weather is what's ouside your window. It's what's happening right now. In a very small time scale, in a very small regional-scale. Local, short term observations.
      -Climate is a whole bunch of those local observations strung together. It's a very large time scale, on a very large regional-scale.

      Hurricanes are a climatological event that produce extreme weather (wind, rain). They are spawned by climatological factors, but grow and self-reinforce on a large scale and themselves grow to affect climate (in a way they give vent to rather large pent up energies). Tornadoes are a weather event, but the supercells that form them are themselves driven by climate trends. A heat wave is a string of related weather events. It may be localized or cover a large area, but being a string of related weather events again points more to the climate side of the scale. Droughts again: large scale, long term, climate.

      In the case of AGW those scales are a) global, and b) range from a couple centuries, to several My depending on which line of evidence you're looking at.
      It was unusually cold in New England this winter. That's weather. But overall, this winter was still one of the 5 warmest on record. That's climate.

      All these things are interwoven together. Ocean currents, the jet stream, warm/cold water layer mixing, warm/cold air mixing, humidity, water/air temperature gradients...all these things combine and interact to create the global climate which you see on a daily basic as weather. If an ocean current shifts it can reduce cloud formation lowering the water content of an air mass and increasing the radiative heating of the land surface immediately inland. these combined factors can lead to a lack of rainfall and/or increase in temperates. IE, drought and/or heat wave. In Cali's case, the Sierra range normally causes some preciptation as the air mass moves eastward, trapping it as snowpack, which then feeds water over the year into the arid region we know as the Central Valley. its what allows an arid region to also be good farmland inspite of its aridity. this year, there wasnt even enough moisture in the air for the mountains to squeeze any out.

      The polar vortex happened because something pushed the normal wind pattern out of shape. it allowed a large mass of unusually cool air to penetrate south a long ways. The reverse also happened: a large mass of warm moist air pushed much north than normal, leading to increased temperatures in the North Pacific and Alaska, and parts of western Canada. Some climatalogical event altered the normal roughly stable route of the vortex. The vortex itself then affects large scale climate effects and drives local extreme weather.

      See, the mistake here that denier consistently make is in thinking that this is a basic input output machine. It's not. It's a web of interconnected loops. Every output is the input to another stage in the machine, and every stage of the machine is linked to every other stage. Everything is in a feedback loop to something else.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    36. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      The "hiatus" is nothing more than cherry picking of data.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    37. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by MightyMartian · · Score: 0

      The hiatus is just cherry picking by the Koch Brothers' trained seals.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    38. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I burn a bucket or two of coal a week down here in florida. i brought an old wood stove down with me from new york. It's really a good way to shut down the green types. I'd buy an SUV or a truck, but they are kind of expensive.
      All in all, I'd say my little act of defiance compensates for about 100 windbag environmentalists that have never done a damn thing in their life. Plants need co2.

    39. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by phlinn · · Score: 1

      A plateau is still a hiatus in growth. Your point is nonsense.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    40. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by MightyMartian · · Score: 0

      I spent over a decade debating Creationists on Usenet. As much as I could ever get into a science-denier's head, I have to say that they just simply are emotionally incapable of accepting certain branches of science. Whether they've been poisoned by ideology or religion, they have made science denial a core part of the intellectual and emotional makeup. They are largely infantile, emotionally insecure and have compartmentalized their cognitive processes to such an extent that the overwhelming majority of them will never ever accept the science.

      What can we do? Well, if Creationism is any guide, you just have to hope you can wait them out.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    41. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1, Informative

      This the change you're referring to. It is explained quite well, and the total change in the data is onl\y 0.2%.
      As in, basically nothing. Not that that has stopped deniers from saying 'NOAA IS PART OF THE CONSPIRACY!!"

      http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/G...

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    42. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1
      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    43. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1

      No, those warm periods we not warmer. Nor were they global in nature.
      And news flash: the little ice age was also eurocentric (ie not global), and it ended hundreds of years ago.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    44. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by hendrips · · Score: 1

      The math pedant in me would like to point out that, technically, a null hypothesis can never be established. Statistical tests can only "reject" or "fail to reject" a null hypothesis.

      And that's the point - the null hypothesis is that there has been no change temperatures, and there is absolutely enough statistical evidence to reject that hypothesis.

    45. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who the hell mods this stuff. why is this post modded a 1 and the parent modded a 4? Somebody's got their head up their arse. Parent post has no citations and is full of rhetoric...

    46. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Erm, sorta. A null hypothesis would be the "fallback" if the main hypothesis failed. What I'm saying is that these people who are so dedicated to denying what's going on, don't have a meaningful alternate prediction.

      I'd argue at this point, man-made global warming is the null hypothesis. And the burden of proof has shifted.

    47. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by mjm1231 · · Score: 2

      Stating that climate change had an impact is neither the same as attributing it as the single cause, nor the same as equating climate with weather. If you expect climate change to never have an impact on weather, then either your definition of weather or your definition of climate is very flawed.

      --
      Ideology: A tool used primarily to avoid the bother of thinking.
    48. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like a very complex pile of bullshit designed to create an unfalsifiable hypothesis to me.

      Think about it. The whole system is designed to make disproving global warming IMPOSSIBLE. No evidence can be used against it, because no matter the trend you can just shift the goalposts to another scale. Even if we have DECADES of cooling, you either keeping shifting out further or cherry-picking evidence from some different part of the world or some different means of measurement that supports your cause.

      Sounds like you've created a religion to me--complete with your own holy dogma, armageddon, priests, heretics, etc. And the more shrill its fanatical supporters become, the less and less it sounds anything like the empirical science that I was taught in grad school.
      .
      Of course, this is going to get modded into the dirt because this is slashdot--A Holy Temple of Global Warming Worshipers

    49. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      So if we have *don't* have a drought or heat wave in Texas this year, you'll be cool with this being treated as evidence against global warming in an article?

      Or, do you only accept evidence that *supports* your cause, and reject all the rest?

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    50. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      ... but creationism is still the most popular worldview regarding the origin of life among US residents(with deity directed evolution coming in at #2). We won some hard fought court battles to keep it out of science classes, but when it comes to what people believe and vote on, that problem is completely unresolved.

    51. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by RabidReindeer · · Score: 2

      Or maybe accept ALL the evidence and weigh the overall statistics instead of extrapolating from cherry-picked points. Realizing that the difference between statistical behavior and deterministic behavior is that there's a joke about a statistician who drowned in a lake averaging 2 inches deep. Because statistics are what you use when analyzing things that fluctuate a lot and occasionally do the exact opposite of what is expected. But only occasionally.

    52. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Oh please.
      Millions is admittedly and obviously an expression.

      And the point still stands: to deny the existence of oil and gas subsidies, to deny their massive lobbying power, to promote the myth of the rich scientist, is to deny reality.

      the myth of the rich scientist pushing it for his own personal gain is just that: MYTH. much like the supposed "vaccine" or "cancer" conspiracies: the idea that thousands of scientists or doctors or researchers are all complicit in a global conspiracy, with not one person of integrity among them (keeping in mind that science doesnt function without integrity), not one whistleblower in the lot is simply farsical on its face.

      and the further idea, that their "stakes" are somehow in any way comparable to that of the oil and gas industries, is just laughable.

      From 1950 to 2010 toil, natural gas, and coal received $600 billion in subsidies, or 10 billion annually. From the US alone.
      The EU. being similar in size and makeup to the US, is probably similar. Then factor in the other big producers in Russia and hte Middle East and South America...
      http://www.misi-net.com/public...

      Their profits for last, excluding some Chinese companies as they dont have same reporting requirements, exceeded 270 billion.
      And here's their *reported* lobbying ammounts: https://www.opensecrets.org/lo...

      So stuff you "credibility" attack.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    53. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by radtea · · Score: 1

      Hurricanes are a climatological event that produce extreme weather (wind, rain).

      This is the most perfect example of begging the question I have ever seen on /.

      The whole point of the GP's argument is that hurricanes are weather, and you have countered by simply declaring hurricanes are climate, or "climatological events", whatever that means.

      Here is the problem in the simplest words I can think of:

      1) Climate is a set of distributions, and is defined by the parameters of those distributions at any time.

      2) Weather is a set of events drawn from those distributions.

      Warmist talking heads who attribute every heat wave and extreme weather event to climate change are engaged in exactly the same fallacy as Denialist talking heads who claim every cold snap is proof of no climate change: both groups deny that the distributions in the case of a) climate change and b) no climate change overlap so substantially that only a liar or an idiot would draw any conclusion about the shape of the distribution from a single event.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    54. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by PortHaven · · Score: 2

      Odd because, well, most folks (and I mean across the globe) that I know have been lauding some rather cold weather. We've seen hundred and even thousand year old records broken.

      Maybe we don't necessarily agree that the temperature recordings are accurate, or rather they're accurate, but that modern satellite records (which are fairly recent and new) have not been properly synced with historical temperature records. A simple fact of which puts all models into question.

      The fact that models have largely and universally failed at prediction would cause any respector of science to contemplate whether they have made an incorrect assumption - unless you've got ego or money in the boat.

    55. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

      Well, when you're talking 1-2 degrees over a century. 0.2% is an EXTREMELY significant change.

    56. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by amiga3D · · Score: 2

      I believe that the Earth is getting warmer. A lot of people do but where I and most of the "True Believers" differentiate is in the details. Things like how bad it will be and what is actually possible to do about it. So many of the True Believers foam at the mouth while screaming about the end of the world. I'm a little less paranoid. No doubt it will change the world but I'm not so sure about ending our existence. The other side is of course what to do and what it will take to accomplish these goals. Most True Believers talk like we can just wave a magic wand and without any real sacrifice we can reduce carbon output to a fraction of what it is now. Surely they can't really believe something so stupid? How do you force emerging nations to kill their economies for something that may or may not be the ultimate tragedy? The requirements would need force of a draconian nature and probably bring about a war to make WWII look like a scrimmage.

    57. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Ravaldy · · Score: 1

      What he wrote isn't that complicated to understand and only points out the fact that many variables were brought into the equation. As human beings, we love waiting for things to be a problem before dealing with them.

      How long did it take for us to decide putting our waste water in our lakes and rivers is a bad idea? The answer is thousands of years. The reason for this is that it was never an issue until enough was being dumped in. What we know is that our planet has worked well without humans for millions of years but in the last 100 we have made our presence more obvious than ever. Is it unreasonable for research to point us towards a path of prevention? I doubt there's any harm in that.

      my 2 cents.

    58. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by mjm1231 · · Score: 1

      No. The article you linked to did not at all state that the drought in Texas was evidence of global warming.

      --
      Ideology: A tool used primarily to avoid the bother of thinking.
    59. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because you morons who fight with creationists are trying to knock down the head guy while plenty of low hanging fruit just sees both parties as a bunch of red-faced airbags with nothing better to do but shout at one another. Given that they see no real value in your efforts they just keep on believing whatever they want at that point in time. Even people I know as atheist-leaning start to turn about as their parents die off and they realize that they're next. I have a friend who has made a hard turn on the matter since she caught her husband in some kind of "side play" and she's facing the death of one of her parents at this moment. It's human nature and fighting to knock someone down instead of lifting someone else up is only making it easier for this kind of ebb and flow to continue.
       
      The larger portion of the creationist camp today will never be swayed. It's a generational kind of way of thinking. Any effort to discredit them to their own face is a wasted effort. As more and more of them pass on the percentage of fence sitters will increase but, again, they'll likely ignore you if you come off like a rabid dog. Give them something worth coming to and not something to push away from. Guiding people to something better has a different psychological effect than telling them you're getting them away from something bad.
       
      The fight for the science class is noble but when people try to push it out of public education as a whole it's going to meet some strong resistance. When I was in public school, two and a half decades ago, we were taught the basic aspects of the world's leading religions in a humanities class. It gave people a better idea on what others thought and it kept the fundies at bay since they weren't being banished from the public eye. I think it's a solution that keeps everyone somewhat happy.

    60. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The little ice age as well ad the medividal warmth periods all where global.
      Perhaps the effect was stronger in europe ... but it happened all over the world.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    61. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      I like to class myself in the rational crowd, and I think a major blind spot between sides is regarding the degree of warming. The following are further facts I think we can agree must be recognized if someone wants to be taken seriously:
      1. The instrumental record over the last 125 years clearly shows things are warming.
      2. CO2 in the atmosphere acts as a GHG and causes warming.
      3. Human activity is dumping sizable quantities of CO2 into the environment and measurable amounts are accumulating in the atmosphere.

      These are all well documented, measured and verifiable facts, not part of any honest debate.

      That said, I STILL count myself a skeptic of the 'degree' or 'rate' of warming that we should be anticipating over the next decades. Having all the hottest years on record occurring in the last decade or two doesn't alarm me over much. We only have 100 some years of data, and the trend in it is a relatively linear warming from start to finish.

      The point of contention is the question of whether or not we are facing 'catastrophic' change or not. Plenty of reconstructions and climate models argue for exponential warming. Such predictions go back to the very first IPCC report, which current global average temps are nearly cooler than the coolest error bars of predictions from back then. More recent estimates start the 'curve' later and later which has served to keep predictions consistent with measured reality. Despite this though, the best models all still DO recognize the absence of accelerated warming in recent years as a problem. They didn't predict it.

      If anyone is still reading and thinks I'm missing important reasons to still anticipate catastrophic results, please let me know, but in all my searching of journals and actual, honest research I am just NOT finding any strong evidence or suggestion that it's time to 'panic'.

    62. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      From 1950 to 2010 toil, natural gas, and coal received $600 billion in subsidies, or 10 billion annually. From the US alone.

      And the USA spends, collectively, somewhere around $150B on coal and natural gas annually. Which means that the subsidies you are decrying amount to less than 7% of the annual spending.

      Alas, you're not going to produce massive changes in lifestyle if you dump the subsidies and cause the price to go up by ~7% as a result.

      Especially since that would be a one-time jump, as opposed to the yearly 7+% increase in medical costs that we live with....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    63. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      To have an increase in temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 a positive forcing feedback must take a dominant position it the climate.
      That is nonsense. You only need enough CO2. Do you mean according to current exhaust we won't produce enough CO2 till 2100?
      We have not yet found this forcing to exist.
      That is double false, or even tripple false.
      First of all: there is no such 'special' force. So nothing to detect.
      Secondly, we exactly know how the runaway effect is triggered. Melting permafrost in the tundras will release CH4 in absurd amounts.
      Thirdly, the greenhouse effect is emphasizing itself anyway via having more water vapour in the atmosphere.
      Everything about this is well known and a no brainer. The only open questions are: how much CH4 will be released in what timeframe, and will it really trigger a runaway effect that leaves the planet at +10 or +20 degrees increase of average temperature.

      The thing with CO2 is that increases in temperature are related to doubling of the concentration in the atmosphere. That is to say that as CO2 increases, it takes more CO2 to continue to add on more increases in temperature as concentration goes up.
      That is wrong. Seems to be a /. myth, saw it repeated here the last weeks several times. The relation is linear, add CO2, you get an corresponding absolute increase in temperature (neglecting side effects like increase in water vapour).

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    64. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The thing is that yes, there is a problem. However, the solutions presented only are to make the proles have to sacrifice for it, when in reality, it doesn't matter whatsoever. It used to be in my area of town, people would let their lawns go fallow, to the point where their foundations would crack due to no water in the soil. This stopped happening when the water they saved was a slight fraction of what the nearby golf courses used [1].

      Taking people's cars and forcing everyone to commute on bikes is a noble goal. It won't help much compared to cutting the amount of cargo ships that burn highly polluting bunker fuel [2], cutting the amount of planes in the air, or cutting the amount of coal plants which is the worst culprit. One coal plant puts out more CO2 than a state's worth of cars does in the same time period.

      The same thing can be said about forcing everybody from the country and suburbs into urban 600 square foot apartments. Yes, it might save resources, but deploying latest gen thorium plants would be just as good and not ruin everyone's quality of life.

      Finally, it isn't the US's fault (which propaganda artists would have you believe.) Most of the worldwide pollution comes from China, and this is by a wide margin.

      [1]: I kept trees from dying by having the gray water from the clothes washer and other appliances go through a filter, then into a storage barrel, which was then used for watering. I wouldn't use this water for gardening, but it is good enough for oak trees.

      [2]: This is essentially filthy tar and has to be heated in order to get it to go into the diesel engine.

    65. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      You've misread the graph.

      What it shows is that:

      1. Dems are close minded - they believe in AGW
      2. Repubs are close minded - they don't believe in AGW
      3. Independents are open minded - they believe in AGW if the last two days were warmer than usual.

      This research is hilarious.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    66. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      There was no unusually cold weather the last 30 years.
      When it was cold, it was 'unusually' cold in relation to the previous 5, 10 or 15 or 20 years you happen to have experienced. Which where unusually warm! So as soon as it is as cold as it ought to be you call it 'unusual' and try to use it as an argument? How short exactly was this cold period around the big lakes last winter? 4 weeks? It used to be 4 months!! And you consider that 'unusually' cold? In relation to what?

      Suppose you visit your hometown and get to a cafe you used to be as a boy. They used to serve the coke on ice, but now they have cold cokes from the fridge. After 20 mins the coke is "unusually" warm, so you don't like to drink the rest.
      Now you ask the waitress to bring you a coke on ice ... surprisingly that coke on ice stays longer cold and is colder than the "unusually warm" coke you got before.

      Wow, looking closely at it you will realize: the unusually cold coke is just as cold as you have been used to it 30 years ago, there is nothing unusual about it at all!

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    67. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong
      The changes were global, and there are many papers to support this.
      http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617 -world wide ocean temps
      http://www.desertusa.com/mag05/feb/cold.html -SW of USA
      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/05/new-paper-confirms-little-ice-age-was.html little ice age in Antarctica-definitely not Eurocentric !

      GISP2 Greenland ice core temperatures showing very warm periods in history
      http://www.c3headlines.com/2009/12/are-modern-temperatures-unprecedented-us-govt-greenland-ice-core-research-finds-theyre-not-even-clos.html

    68. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      There is certainly no sustained increase in coal usage in Germany.
      And I doubt there is any in Japan either. Japan used oil plants as fall back in power production, not coal plants.

      And: you simply can not burn more coal in existing plants than you did before. Plants have to follow the mid range or peak load ... and that they did before wind power came a majour contribution and that they do now.
      The only way is to de-mothball old plants if you want to burn more coal. None of the countries did that.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    69. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Attribution studies are performed to determine whether a specific event can be attributed to climate change.

      Aside from that, you need to look at the trends. People will tell you that climate != weather when you use one cold day to dismiss the warming trend. The world is warming. One cold day doesn't change that.

      A news caster who finds an event that fits the trend and uses it as an example of that trend it is less wrong than someone who finds meaning in an event that contradicts the trend.

    70. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      I can't speak to other science denialism, but I spent some time in an Orthodox temple where the rabbi was a strong opponent of Evolution. (I spent time there when I disagreed with the rabbi so much only because my parents belonged there and so I didn't need to pay any dues to join.) The rabbi's argument basically boiled down to "Scientists keep changing their theories. Our 'God did it' theory never changes. Therefore, our theory is stronger and theirs is weaker, ours is right and theirs is wrong."

      Religion has a strong reliance on the past and a strong element of momentum. You do X because Very Religious Person Y said you should and therefore your father, his father, and his father did X. X has been done for generations and any changing of X would be against your religion. If a new situation crops up, it must be somehow fit into the most applicable existing situation and made to follow the Old Rules. Any change is bad because it means veering from The Way Things Always Were. Even if they actually weren't always like that, the past will often be retconned to either ignore unsavory events or to re-write what people did. (e.g. The bible says Abraham served milk and meat together. That's not allowed in the Jewish religion but this was before the Kosher laws were given. Still, having that big of a figure ignoring Kosher is icky so that passage is "retconned" by an explanation that he served them in the proper order and separated in time just the right way,

      The end result of this is that science, with it's ever-changing theories, is seen as bad - even though the theories change to better suit the data. Meanwhile, religion, with it's never changing rules (or, at least, rules that "have always been" this way once you retcon them) is seen as better.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    71. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      A newscaster who uses a warm event as an example of the warming trend is less wrong than a contrarian blogger or talk radio host who uses a cold event to dismiss the trend.

    72. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Reminds me of Asimov: "when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."

    73. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      And news flash: the little ice age was also eurocentric (ie not global), and it ended hundreds of years ago.

      ...and by eurocentric you mean "including at least also Asia, Mesoamerica, Africa, Antarctica, Pacific Islands, New Zealand, and South America."

      The claim that the Little Ice Age was a phenomena local to the north atlantic was completely debunked by the existing data immediately after the claim was made.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    74. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      I think the title "How Climate Change Exacerbated the Drought" would beg to differ.

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    75. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Prune · · Score: 1

      I doubt there's any harm in that.

      There's tremendous economic harm.

      --
      "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    76. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, if you're going to take that take, then there is no such thing as unusual weather of any kind.

    77. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Hot years are not incompatible with a "hiatus" in lower atmosphere warming. Obviously, more recent years are going to be the hottest even if global warming stopped completely, because global cooling would be required to return to where we were in the past.

      The Earth has continued to warm the past decade, just at a much more modest rate than it had been warming in the 1990's or even since the 1950's.

      The reason is because the bulk of that extra heat is not being stored in the lower atmosphere like it was in the 1990's. More likely it has been absorbed in large part by the oceans.

    78. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The hiatus still continues.
      And yes there is a hiatus nowdays even in the mainstream pro-agw camp, saying otherwise makes you a denier.

      And the climate science deniers continue to believe that if the current theory is correct that temperatures should rise in lockstep with rises in greenhouse gases like the output of a manual transmission in relation to the input.

    79. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      You also have to watch these bastards closely.

      They've previously been caught treating taxes on gasoline, that are used to maintain roads, as a subsidy on gasoline! WTF? Fucking liars.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    80. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Stop capitalizing Groups of People You Don't Like. It looks stupid as hell.

      At any rate, honest, scientific analyses* of the costs and harms have been done, and it doesn't really endorse this lukewarm attitude.

      *These are just summary versions, the actual details of how all these issues are computed requires more than just a 76 page picture book, and you'd have to peruse to the full version, and not only that, the couple hundred of reference citations of each of the chapters.

      Now, if you actually did that, it's more effort than I've put into this particular question, which would actually justify these "You don't know what you mean" rants that are so common.

      You're going to have to acknowledge you don't actually have any evidence of what you, personally, and not Some Capitalized Group That's Magically Uniform, are saying.

    81. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      It doesn't even remotely keep creationists happy.

      Who are you kidding? They still engage in organized pushes to teach creationism in science classes sometimes.

    82. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Simple, Weather and climate are two separate but related things...

      Weather cannot prove climate and climate cannot prove weather, but they are connected. If climate could prove weather, the weatherman would ALWAYS be right. but truth is it can't. just as weather can't prove climate, because weather is extremely localized, and climate is not local at all.

      Climate change has an impact on weather, If you want to think of how it's connected. a global annualized increase of 1 degree C affects the climate in may ways. the water cycle changes, (ie. higher evaporation in warmer areas, resulting in lower condensation over the warmer areas = Drought) which can greatly impact weather. more water vapor will condense when it moves into the cooler areas (above the sea) and with greater cloud cover/convection currents over the ocean, lead to greater storms. That is how climate can affect the weather. the climate is more the relationship between temperature/water/atmosphere/air currents. Weather is a measured result of the relationship between temperature/water/atmosphere/air currents.

      That's not to say that weather doesn't have the same effect on a smaller scale. Whereas climate concerns itself less with the fact that Calgary AB got 3 CM of snow last night, and more with the fact that Alberta had X amount of precipitation over the past year, the water levels in the lakes dropped x cm, and the glaciers retreated x meters... All those have an impact on exactly how much water vapor is in the air, and how much fell, and can then be put into air current models to see where that water is going. weather is more concerned with (It's going to be +4 today with a chance of rain)

    83. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      then it won't stop

      I've previously pointed out the 'climate scientists' can learn a lot from engineers. If only to prevent themselves from making foolish statements.

      Here is a prefect example. An idiot who doesn't understand feedback and control systems publicly demonstrating the humor of his SIG.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    84. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Ravaldy · · Score: 1

      The next big questions are:

      1. How much economy is greater than the future of human kind?
      2. What short term benefits do we gain by compromising now?
      3. What are the long term benefits?
      4. What is a reasonable amount of compromise?

      Every time this debate is brought up I get the same answers and it immediately points me towards how selfish our society has become. I know that me personally am willing to help the next generations by making reasonable compromises right now but it seems it's not the general consensus.

    85. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotSanguine · · Score: 1

      ". We can quantify that harm, and it's not civilization ending. it most certainly can be if we don't stop emitting greenhouse gasses. The trapped energy will increase with more greenhouse gasses. If we don't stop and work on lowering it, then it won't stop.

      Now, we can do it using science, and brains, and engineering and planning. Or we can stop because the earth no longer supports humans.

      Cost is irrelevant when dealing with complete collapse. The longer we wait, the more aggressive we must be.

      To be clear, I'm not talking about tomorrow or next decade, but it can get too warm for human civilization as we know it in 100 years. When the heat sink are no longer available, the temp will rise even more dramatically.

      Yes, I am raising the alarm. The change we must make will take decades. There isn't a silver bullet, there isn't 1 solution. We must be aggressive in out planning.

      I'm not sure why you bother. Or why anyone does. The scientific models are incomplete. It will take many decades or even centuries to refine those models until they can reliably represent climate changes. We should wait until we know exactly what's going to happen before doing anything at all. Besides, I need my latest new shiny toy, I don't have time for speculative bullshit. You show me the Empire State building ten floors deep in rising sea levels and I might care. If not, take your science and shove it up your well-reamed asses!

      I mean, so what if the AGW folks are right? It's not like any of us will be alive to see one way or another,

      Who cares what will happen to our grandchildren anyway? They're just a bunch of useless rugrats taking up space and not contributing to the economy (i.e., making me more money).

      If they were worth a damn, they'd be job creators and hard workers, In which case, they'd have the resources to buy their own politicians.

      As it is, they just sit around eating and pooping in their diapers and whining about every little thing that annoys them. Or worse, they're sperm and ova eating up the planet's resources without providing anything useful.

      It's their responsibility, not ours.

      The politicians I own are going to make sure I have what I want. Those lazy fucking babies and their unconceived brethren can bloody well do it themselves. It's no concern of mine. Oh, and fuck you, Jack! I got mine.

      --
      No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
    86. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Honestly, this explanation doesn't sit well with me. I'd love to get in their heads, because I don't get them. But this explanation of their behavior doesn't seem to mesh with how they act.

      They seem like people who want to imagine cynicism and naive skepticism lets them see further than everyone else. You know, like truther types do.

      When it comes to humanity, always bet on stupidity

      --JMS

    87. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      Rave on True Believer. There's plenty of warming evidence I'll admit. What it all means is not exactly so clear and what impact it will have is even less clear. I'm not saying it'll be a good thing, no doubt there will be dire consequences but raving about the end of the world as most True Believers do isn't going to convince anyone. I've seen so many different climate models come and go and it seems like in their struggle to convince people to believe that the scenarios get more and more outlandish every year. And still I haven't heard any real plan to cope with carbon release that addresses reality.

    88. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by mjm1231 · · Score: 1

      Then you fail at reading comprehension. From the title, a belief in climate change can be assumed, but not that the drought is evidence for it.

      --
      Ideology: A tool used primarily to avoid the bother of thinking.
    89. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1

      No. No there is not.
      The fact you would even say so shows tremendous ignorance and short sightedness.
      Your statement is akin to saying "the replacement of horses with cars will lead to tremendous economic harm".

      Firstly, just researching something cannot lead to any economic harm. So you must obviously be refering not to research, but to the actual abandonment of fossil fuels. But that leads to number two which is: you are assuming absolutely no new technologies or markets will emerge to replace fossil fuels. News flash: they're already here.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    90. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by bigpat · · Score: 1

      There is certainly no sustained increase in coal usage in Germany.

      That is not what I am reading about Germany. Despite the much hyped gains in renewables, those gains have been offset by the reduction in nuclear and the rise of coal use

      And I doubt there is any in Japan either. Japan used oil plants as fall back in power production, not coal plants.

      And that is not what I am reading about in Japan either where there are "Plans by Japanese companies to spend billions of dollars on new coal-fired plants"

      If the plans all come to fruition, Japan's coal-fired power capacity would increase to around 47 gigawatts over the next decade or so, up 21% from the time right before the Fukushima accident.

      So, we have increases in coal in Japan and Germany. China is still using coal like gang busters to power the largest industrial economy in the world, but to their credit they are also making a big investments in nuclear, solar, hydro and wind. The US is basically shifting to more natural gas which is better than coal, but nuclear is pretty much stalled and solar and wind are growing at a fast pace relative to their relatively low percentage of the energy mix, but isn't going to make a real dent in CO2 anytime soon unless those renewable growth rates are sustainable... but those growth rates aren't sustainable because all the easier locations for solar and wind are being built out first which should result in a slowdown in the adoption curve in future years unless solar panel prices really plummet and then the economics of it really changes.

      Also, I noticed in one of those articles that Japan was promoting coal for developing economies, which would put us even further into a CO2 hole and undermine progress being made elsewhere as developing economies embrace coal as the lowest cost alternative. If the highly stable and developed economies are embracing coal, the developing world is embracing coal, then the current efforts for renewables look like little more than window dressing on the fact that Global Climate change is really being considered as a fait accompli by the world's decision makers.

      I take Climate change seriously. I would rather not have the world experience the worst case scenarios, but I think that if we are going to avoid that worst case scenarios, then most environmentalists need to stop opposing nuclear or we might as well just do nothing now and pray for a technological miracle sometime before it is too late. Personally I would rather put forward a viable plan now that includes government subsidies and incentives for big increases in solar and wind, big increases in nuclear and maybe natural gas for the remaining 20% of the mix. I think that moving away from oil and coal and eventually most natural gas is doable. But not if you think that solar panels and wind turbines are going to provide for all our energy needs alone, not at anywhere near these population levels they won't.

    91. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      You need to take off your rose-colored glasses when reading.

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    92. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And as a liberal, I bet you think the opposite about debt. Destroying the purchasing power of future generations is OK as long as we don't have to resort to austerity measures now. I mean, what do you care? You'll be dead when the borrowing and debt is no longer sustainable. Raise the debt cieling again.

    93. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      First of all bloomberg is wrong about germany, and besides a headline on one picture I fail to see on what base they conclude that Germany has increased its coal consumption or CO2 output. Perhaps google for data on fraunhofer.de ... they have nice anually updated background data of power production.
      Secondly if Japan is indeed: spending billions of dollars on new coal plants then they are definitely not right now burn more coal. As they lack plants, as I said, which contradicts our parents claim.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    94. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by kenai_alpenglow · · Score: 1

      Having in the past evaluated proposals for a $100K SBIR, and seeing what lengths a (sometimes not-so) small business will go through to get said contract, I don't see why it would be anything different for a researcher to go through similar hoops for a grant for "whatever-I-believe-in" (or "whatever-keeps-me-employed"), right or wrong.

    95. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by bigpat · · Score: 1
      If you don't believe Bloomberg News, then Try the BBC

      The impact on CO2 emissions has been immediate. "There has been an increase of between 5%-7% in CO2 in the past two years," says Prof Claudia Kemfert, head of energy at the German Institute for Economic Research.

      And on Japan how can you claim that Japan lacks coal plants? Japan has 18 Coal fired power plants and according to that other article they are planning more.

    96. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      In the case of AGW those scales are a) global, and b) range from a couple centuries, to several My depending on which line of evidence you're looking at.
      It was unusually cold in New England this winter. That's weather. But overall, this winter was still one of the 5 warmest on record. That's climate.

      Which is the source of a huge part of my skepticism regarding the severity of the 'problem'.

      1. Our climate is warming, period. We have almost 125 years of instrumental data to prove it. The but is that, 125 years is not enough data points for phenomena that as you pointed out span centuries and even millenia.
      2. CO2 is a GHG and contributes to warming, and we are dumping significant quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere. What severity of impact is that causing though? We have just barely been dumping that CO2 for a century, and our best data points don't give us much reference of the 'before' trend.

      What pushes me past skepticism though and into outright rejection is graphs like the IPCC published Mann et el graph showing temperature over the last 2k or more years. The work and principle of looking at older proxy records to get a longer reference of climate is vitally important, and a way to extend what we know and can use to improve prediction. The principal is good. The published articles are pure hack jobs though. Data points projected by proxy prior to 1900 are posted and attached to current instrumental records and show an alarming and sudden upward trend in temperature starting at 1900. Now, any sane, skeptical mind would point out the change in data sources as the first and most important cause. Instead, Mann et al claimed a eureka moment, as human CO2 emissions also roughly coincide with that time, so clearly human activity is the cause.

      That isn't just bad science, IMO it is deliberately and intentionally bad science. The fact is further proven and demonstrated if you take Mann's oldest and original graphs and just map out what 2014 and 2020 aught to look like if his observed 'trend' is real.

    97. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      There's plenty of warming evidence I'll admit. What it all means is not exactly so clear and what impact it will have is even less clear.

      What exactly do you think I linked, there? A debunking of something you imagined I imagined you said?

      That link was a clear and straightforward presentation of the most likely negative consequences of human induced climate change.

      I refuse to have one of those arguments where you're arguing with an imagined version of me.

    98. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't that be exactly the cynicism I'm blaming on others? "Stupidity" is far too reductionist.

    99. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      They lack coal plants to increaee coal usage significantly, if a coal plant is burning at 100% it certainly can not increase its rate of burning.
      Burning more coal than actual power is consumed makes no sense either.
      However, I did not think about that, they can produce base load with coal where they once used nuclear plants.
      Nevertheless their main increase (similar bad ofc.) was in oil, not in coal.
      Why don't you look at the graph above that 'claim'?
      Since 1997 germany has more than halfed!!! its usage of coal! So from 140 'units' we went down to 50. Then we had a short phase where it increased from 50 to roughly 60 ... big deal. According to that graph gas usage declined in an equivalent amount.
      But the graph is pretty useless, it does not reflect actual energy production (it should show 25% - 30% share of renewables). Well looking at it snd thinking about it, it seems it is not about electric power production but total energy consumption/production, including house heating etc. The last two winters where cold, obviously people need more coal for heating then.
      And finally: the quote about the last two years was made 2012, so it is again two years old ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    100. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      All these things are interwoven together. Ocean currents, the jet stream, warm/cold water layer mixing, warm/cold air mixing, humidity, water/air temperature gradients...all these things combine and interact to create the global climate which you see on a daily basic as weather. If an ocean current shifts it can reduce cloud formation lowering the water content of an air mass and increasing the radiative heating of the land surface immediately inland. these combined factors can lead to a lack of rainfall and/or increase in temperates. IE, drought and/or heat wave. In Cali's case, the Sierra range normally causes some preciptation as the air mass moves eastward, trapping it as snowpack, which then feeds water over the year into the arid region we know as the Central Valley. its what allows an arid region to also be good farmland inspite of its aridity. this year, there wasnt even enough moisture in the air for the mountains to squeeze any out..

      All these factors you cite pale in comparison to CO2, nay to the human-generated CO2 as opposed to the "good" naturally occurring CO2, without which we would all starve to death. Notwithstanding all these poorly understood interactions, and many more you did not deign to mention like the sun's output, the strength and orientation of the earth's magnetic field, the fact that hotter objects radiate more than cooler ones, etc. the fact is that this massive non-linear partial differential equation all boils down to CO2. The actual math is so trivial that it is left as an exercise for the reader.

    101. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      If *you* had to choose between more freedom and the promise of a slightly cooler environment, which would you choose? Do you think future human beings would choose freedom or the promise of climate control? Or would you selfishly make that choice for them? Make no mistake, climate legislation is designed to diminish individual freedom.

    102. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Beck_Neard · · Score: 1

      > or cutting the amount of coal plants which is the worst culprit.

      Which is pretty much the exact thing that responsible policymakers have recommended doing, so I don't see your point.

      --
      A fool and his hard drive are soon parted.
    103. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Beck_Neard · · Score: 1

      I don't think they can all be categorized in the same way. There are the "look at me I'm smart because I'm skeptical of everything" types that you mention, plus the crazy conspiracy nut types, the oil industry types, and also the religious types.

      By the way, just for the sake of fairness, there are also a lot of nuts in the climate change camp too. But what matters is the science and evidence which firmly points to anthropogenic climate change being true.

      --
      A fool and his hard drive are soon parted.
    104. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Coal burn is not counted in # of units. Those that do so are obviously lying with statistics.

      New coal plants are typically much bigger and usually sit right next to the mine. It being cheaper to transmit power then coal.

      For example there are coal fired plants physically in Nevada and Arizona that are in the California control area. Because they are better connected to the CA grid (which they were built to serve) then the local Nevada one.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    105. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by sycodon · · Score: 1

      I think you don't really understand the word, "Exacerbated". Hint: It's not what you do in the shower on Friday nights.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    106. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I haven't really seen exponential warming being predicted anywhere, only faster adjustment than is naturally possible to a new equilibrium. I would assume that every respectable climate scientist agrees that new equilibrium will be reached, but how does earth look when that eventually happens is under debate. The panic comes from the rate of change and uncertainty of what will happen in the future. Reasonable and very direct consequences of warming climate are rise of sea level, and unpredictable weather. On top of that fear of collapsing ecosystems around the world and triggering feedback loops that far outweigh human efforts are being discussed, but of course we will not know for sure until those ecosystems do collapse and runaway methane emissions start occurring. Cost of doing something now is matter of few percentage points of global production, cost of not doing anything has potential to cause significantly bigger damage.

    107. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by CaptainDork · · Score: 1

      "unfalsifiable ... to me."

      Exactly the point.

      --
      It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.
    108. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      In europe or especially germany we have a unit called "Steinkohke equivalent Einheit", SKE.
      Energy is often measured in that unit.
      So a nuclear power plant might be measured in how much power it produces in comparision with a coal plant. That is easy with SKE (also easy with GW/h of course)

      So yes, coal is counted in 'units' of SKE.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    109. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by bigpat · · Score: 1

      Since 1997 germany has more than halfed!!! its usage of coal!

      Yes, that was good for them back in the 90s, but now coal usage is going up.

      They lack coal plants to increase coal usage significantly, if a coal plant is burning at 100% it certainly can not increase its rate of burning. Burning more coal than actual power is consumed makes no sense either. However, I did not think about that, they can produce base load with coal where they once used nuclear plants.

      And all it takes is a simple search to find Germany is building new coal power plants. Which is my point. By eliminating nuclear and moving more production to coal then they are offsetting all the gains they have made in renewables when they should be keeping nuclear and reducing coal and oil instead.

    110. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by mpe · · Score: 1

      What about the people with stake in large multinational wind and solar producers claiming we can save ourself with all-renewable society?

      Where things start getting really daft is that using wind and solar can easily mean that you need to run fossil fuel plants very inefficiently in order to "balance the grid". Thus it's possible for these to have a huge "carbon footprint". Yet nuclear power tends to be dismissed out of hand by the same people demanding "something must be done".
      Similarly it's quite easy to produce "bio fuels" which require more petroleum than "petrol fuels".

    111. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The whole idea of disproving a strawman null hypothesis is nonsense. The hypothesis to be nullified should be one that you believe, not something that no one thinks is true. The one used by climate scientists ("there has been no change in temperature") is perhaps the most egregious example of nonsense use of statistics, but the ones used by psych/sociology/medical researchers ("two groups of people have exactly the same average") is really just as bad.

    112. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which is nothing different than any other of his posts.

    113. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Prune · · Score: 1

      I know that me personally am willing to help the next generations by making reasonable compromises right now but it seems it's not the general consensus.

      You do what you want, but who are you to tell other people how to live their lives? And yet, that's what most environmentalists do. This is why environmentalism really is like a watermelon: green on the outside, red on the inside.

      --
      "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    114. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by strikethree · · Score: 1

      because we all know anecdotal local data completely disproves long term multidecade global averages and trends.

      More anecdotal data, but data that "proves" the reverse:

      When I was a child, there used to be LOTS of snow pretty much all winter long. As an adult, there is not so much snow and it is not all winter long anymore.

      Anecdotal data is anecdotal data. It can be useful over long enough timelines or across wide enough areas but it is never proof.

      --
      "Someone needs to talk to the tree of liberty about its ghoulish drinking problem." by ohnocitizen
    115. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      If *you* had to choose between more freedom and the promise of a slightly cooler environment, which would you choose?

      If you think you are free then you are a fool. If you aren't arguing for change in energy policy then you are reinforcing the status quo of oil and coal companies whose manipulation of the media to cast this doubt over the science presented over many years has produced the very state of mind you are in.

      They call you "useful idiots".

      If someone comes to try and educate you or demonstrate why you are arguing against your own best interests you respond in the hostile aggressive way you have been programmed to.

      Do you think future human beings would choose freedom or the promise of climate control?

      I think they would choose life over a hidden taxation that they will inherit. They will have no choice but to pay it.

      Or would you selfishly make that choice for them?

      I will take the responsibility for arguing in their interests because I have analysed the threat and the evidence supports the need for modifying the way our world works.

      The difference between my position and yours is that mine gives them a choice and yours denies them a choice. Your position takes away their freedoms whilst mine position grants them their freedom because my position takes responsibility whilst your position forces responsibility onto a later generation for which they have no choice but to deal with our irresponsibility.

      Irresponsibility because we don't own the air , oceans or land, we are borrowing them off future generations of humanity. Acknowledging that doesn't mean you're a hippy, it just means that you think humanity deserves a future. If you don't think humanity deserves a future then just let the people concerned with building a future free of oil/coal externalities get on with it.

      Make no mistake, climate legislation is designed to diminish individual freedom.

      Yes it does. It diminishes our individual freedom because we are choosing to do so. We are choosing to take responsibility when there is still an opportunity to prevent consequences we don't understand. We are acknowledging that we are stewards to future generations of humanity and adult enough to accept that there are burdens that come with it.

      You can either choose to be responsible to future generations or not - to take their freedom or not. That is the freedom you have now.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    116. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by American+Patent+Guy · · Score: 1

      Ah, a rational point of view!

      I myself have been accused of being a "global warming denier". I don't deny at all that either average global temperature or CO2 is increasing: what I do deny is that any of these pundits can show that these changes are meaningful to me or anyone else. Yet again we hear the drumbeat of the UN chicken-littles: (from the article)

      “We know without any doubt ... our weather is becoming more extreme due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “...We are running out of time ... The laws of physics are non-negotiable ... Pleading ignorance can no longer be an excuse for not acting,” said Mr Jarraud.

      What I have not seen, Mr. Jarraud, is any proof that "extreme" climate changes you shout about are actually going to happen. You can't even point to, with any certainty, a few tenths of a degree at some location on the planet that supports your global warming theories. I don't have beachfront property: if the ocean rises by a few inches I won't care. If my temperature warms by a degree or two, my response will be ... so? Someone will cry out about rainfall change, and I will ask: how are you going to stop that from changing?

      There is a wonderful, clean energy source that is available right now with a well-developed and reliable technology. It's called "nuclear power". The generators can be located well away from population centers, and they can be located far underground to shield them from attack. The fuel is practically inexaustible: it's a by-product of mining operations on-going and in the past. The waste product is solid, and will not pollute the environment. The electricity that it provides can be used to generate hydrogen or other hydrogen compounds that can be used as fuel for a fuel-cell or simply burned, which waste products can be easily returned to the environment in the forms they naturally occur. Having such technologies available makes the people using it independent from exporters of coal, oil and natural gas.

      Here we read all kinds of rude comments using words beginning with "f", "s" and other words. If we could convince the population that the word that begins with "n" is a good one, then perhaps the stupidity expressed by Mr. Jarraud and his crowd could be silenced.

    117. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Goragoth · · Score: 1

      It baffles me that some people actually believe that those concerned about global warming think that it will cause the end of humanity. It won't. Even if the most catastrophic predictions come true, not only will life on Earth continue on just fine, but human life will also continue. We are a very adaptive species and even in the case of extreme climate change, parts of the Earth will become more hospitable to humans than they are now. It just happens that people concerned about climate change don't think that 20% or more of the human population being wiped out is an acceptable path to take when reasonable alternatives exist.

      It is possible for us to reduce CO2 emissions right now, with minimal economic impact, if we are willing. All it would take would be a concentrated push towards nuclear power generation, coupled with electric vehicles for transport and we could reduce emissions in short order without destroying any economies. Of course instead both Germany and Japan are dialing down their nuclear programs in favour of burning more coal.

    118. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      No, what it shows is:

      1. Democrats believe the science
      2. Republicans don't believe the science
      3. Independents believe themselves over anything else

    119. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      The new coal plants are replacing older plants, and this was planned before the "Energiewende". The new plants release far less CO2 than the old ones, so it's still a net reduction.

    120. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Well, yes, but my formulation was funnier.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    121. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Ravaldy · · Score: 1

      That's not what I was pointing out. What I was pointing out is the lack of wanting to help further generations. Nobody if forcing anybody but I expect those who don't want to help to stop singing the conspiracy song and calling everybody a liar just because they don't want to be the black sheep. It gets old really quick especially for those educated enough to understand what is reasonable for compromise. The naysayers are just preventing very simple changes from being applied.

      It don't find this any different than cigarette propaganda in the 70s. While health groups were trying to save people one cigarette at a time, the manufacturers were putting up advertisement to make people feel at ease that smoking wasn't going to ruin their lives.

    122. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by bigpat · · Score: 1

      How do you emit less CO2 burning more coal? Most or all of these new coal plants are not intended to do underground sequestration as far as I can tell. And the reporting indicates that they expect to increase net coal consumption not just replace older plants. I think cleaner means fewer particulate emissions, which is good for lung diseases and quality of life, but still the plan is to burn more coal and therefore more CO2 which is bad for Global Climate Change.

    123. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Blah blah blah, all I'm hearing is "I don't have a remotely scientific explanation for the course of temperature changes through the 20th century, and that's a good reason to dismiss the primary scientific one"

    124. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Have you looked at global temperatures? Last winter in Minnesota was very unpleasantly cold, but Minnesota is not the whole world (regardless of what people in neighboring states think we think). The world as a whole was pretty darn hot.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    125. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Japan used oil plants as fall back in power production, not coal plants.

      Are oil plants that much better? They're both burning fossil fuels and putting sequestered carbon into the atmosphere.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    126. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Thing is, what other people do has a very large effect on my life. If I don't walk around with a firearm taking random potshots, that doesn't necessarily help me if others do. Are you maintaining that that's a valid lifestyle? Or are there limits to what we should allow people to do if it harms others?

      If you admit any limits on behavior, we're down to talking about where they should be. In this case, there's a lot of evidence that putting CO2 into the atmosphere is going to harm a whole lot of people. (Yes, I'm guilty too.) It's a very long-range effect compared to firing guns randomly in my neighborhood, but it appears to exist.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    127. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      There was unusually cold weather last winter where I live, and I go back a lot more than 20 years. Similarly, the summer around here has been unusually cool.

      I know perfectly well that this was counterbalanced by unusually warm weather elsewhere, and that this is an exceptionally hot year globally. Doesn't mean I enjoyed the winter and not the summer (summer before this one was exceptionally warm where I live).

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    128. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      That was not the point.
      The point was the parent made idiotic, wrong, wild claims. Not only about Japan, but about Germany, too!

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    129. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      You are right. We are not nearly as free as our recent ancestors. The shadow of tyranny grows inexorably because of do-gooders who believe they know what is best for everyone else. This is not new. Plato's Republic, Hobbes Leviathan, More's Utopia, and Marxism all promised security in exchange for liberty. Wannabe master minds can never deliver. Liberty does. As long as there is liberty, people will adapt.

    130. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Oki, idiot.
      We burned 150 units of coal in 1989!
      We burned 52 units in 2012.
      We burned 54 units in 2013. INCREASE! INCREASE! INCREASE!

      Germany is building new coal plants to phase out inefficient old ones. That got mentioned here on /. minimum 100 times now, at least 20 times by myself.

      I don't know why people link bloomberg web pages, even when I read their links besides a headline or a note below a picture there is absolutely noting in the article supporting your claim.

      I could now behave like an asshole and say: learn german, read a german web page, learn to google in german.

      But I'm only annoyed and don't consider myself an asshole so: for fuck sake stop telling us germans what we do. You are wrong, you don't know what we do!

      When my school mates went to school exchange in 1985t the USA some got asked: 'does Hitler still live?', others got asked 'do you have electricity in Germany?' How retarded is that? Most hillarious: one girl got a phone call from another german school boy, but was absent. The guest mother took the call and when the girl came home she told her. The girl shrugged and changed dresses and when she wanted to leave the mother was like: "What? You can not go now, you had that phone call, he will call again". The girl: "Eh? What?" The mother: "He certainly wants to date you, you simply can not go now!" The girl: "To date me (what actually does that mean?)? And why should I need to wait now for him, for his call? If he wants something he will call again. Chance is, I meet him later anyway with my class mates. Certainly I meet him tomorrow in school!"
      Worthless to mention: the guest mother "war von den Socken!"

      Now you keep telling us: you increase CO2 ... no we don't. You need nuclear plants ... no we don't. Grids will be unstable ... you know noting about grids, so shut up. Solar does not shine at night ... yeah, I noticed. In fact I wondered why it is so dark at night for my first ten years, but then my grandpa told me: it is because of the stars, if it was light we could not see them. What a smart guy.

      So again: if you want to know something about german energy production, learn german or ask me or another german and stop repeating stupid ANGST posts from known renewable hater organizations like bloomberg.

      Or if you google, look for german sites (Germany the country) in english (english the language).

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    131. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by niftymitch · · Score: 1

      How do you emit less CO2 burning more coal? Most or all of these new coal plants are not intended to do underground sequestration as far as I can tell. And the reporting indicates that they expect to increase net coal consumption not just replace older plants. I think cleaner means fewer particulate emissions, which is good for lung diseases and quality of life, but still the plan is to burn more coal and therefore more CO2 which is bad for Global Climate Change.

      And events that might naturally sequester CO2 are considered evil in the same context.

      A large region of an ocean that flips into an anoxic state and starts to rain organics
      on the ocean floor would be seen as a global disaster. Yet such disasters may
      be necessary to reverse the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere.

      I have not seen any credible science that shows good analysis for any reversal
      strategy. Without reversal strategies those with vast coal reserves might do
      well to level mountain tops, mine the coal and terraform the mountain top into
      agriculture or homes. Reclamation and terraforming is ill understood... and needs
      to be understood.

      --
      Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
    132. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the two big questions are is this normal for this time in the planet;s history and if not could you even do anything about it?

    133. Re: Meanwhile in the real world... by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      How does that "hiatus" combine with the denialist trope that CO2 rises after temperature, not the other way around, to result in record high CO2 after a pause in warming?

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    134. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1

      no. 0.2C would be significant.
      0.2% of 1-2C is 0.002C - 0.004C.
      nothing extreme or significant about it.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    135. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by dywolf · · Score: 1

      yes, this post absolutely was flamebait.
      by using cited csources with actualy data and math to refute a baseless lie it is the textbook defintion of flamebait.

      spineless mod cowards.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    136. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only if you mean "a period where it's been colder, even if it wasn't at the same time".

      Under that definition, IT IS ALWAYS WINTER EVERYWHERE, since it's winter in the southern hemisphere and winter in the northern hemisphere, just never at the same time.

      The claim that the LIA was global requires that you have no concept of time.

      Idiot.

    137. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Solar + ambri looks like a potential winner. But we also have fusion right around the corner, 2022 for the first commercial options by many big names ( Focus Fusion, Lockheed Martin ). I don't have any concern over climate change these days, solar is advancing at an incredible pace that within 10 years will only be beaten by fusion for price.

    138. Re:Meanwhile in the real world... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here is a prefect example. An idiot who doesn't understand feedback and control systems publicly demonstrating the humor of his SIG.

      A sig that, like most of his postings, is inarticulate, barely-coherent and usually incorrect.

      Geekoid is apparently racing APK for the 'most fuckwitted Slashdotter' crown.

  2. Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by mdsolar · · Score: 3, Informative

    The diplomacy is already complete for imposing carbon tariffs on China. We should proceed now. http://news.slashdot.org/story...

    1. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by MrL0G1C · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Indeed, in a few years, they'll be emitting as much per capita as Germany 9.5t, the UK 7.7t and the US 17.5t

      t=tonnes of CO2 per annum per capita..

      I'm no fan of China's pollution 7t record but it seems odd to single them out.

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    2. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tarif the producer or consumer?

      Cannot export manufacturing to China AND expect high environmental standards AND for low cost.

      As always. Pick two.

    3. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      We need to single out countries that are not cutting emissions, that is the leverage that the GATT Article XX tariffs give us.

    4. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      On shoring of manufacturing has some economic benefits.

    5. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 3, Informative

      You get total emissions by taking per-capita emissions and multiplying it by "capitas". Do you see how that has a big impact with China's number of "capitas"?

    6. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Why go by an artificial boundary? What if china split up into 5 or 10?

      And, who is buying all of the produce made in China? EU's emissions could be counted as 40% higher if you consider the fact that we have externalized our pollution to China.

      Per capita is the fair measurement. US's per capita CO2 is dreadful. Nearly 1 in 3 new cars in the US are SUVs, I think that's indicative of a lot of people in the US either not giving a **** or being ignorant of the consequences of their actions.

      Asia is the highest emitting continent, but the finger pointing is.. pointless, we need standards / taxes that target CO2 emissions and those standards should be global (Doesn't mean I support TTIP, I certainly don't).

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    7. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Have you paid your tax lately?

    8. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by tendrousbeastie · · Score: 1

      Surely, when the UK has a population of around 65 million, and China has a population of around 1400 million it makes a difference. We are talking about influencing government policy. So, we spend a huge effort changing UK policy, and at most we can effect a reduction in an output of:

      7.7t * 65m = 500.5 million t ... while at the same time China is outputing:

      7t * 1400m = 9800 million t.

      The entire UK output is 5% of China's. If the UK can reduce its output by 20% (hugely unlikely, as just holding steady seems impossible to do), while the Chinese increase theirs by just 1% then the two effects cancel out (to some rounding error that I can't be arsed to calculate).

      Focusing on those countries who are both raising their output the most and also have the largest populations (hello too India) seems perfectly sensible.

    9. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Half the Chinese population is peasantry. You need to double the per capita carbon figure to get a meaningful measure of the urbanized/industrialized Chinese carbon footprint.

      If you're being intellectually honest, that is. If you're just repeating the bogus 'per captia' argument to rack up karma or whatever then carry on.

    10. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Except that you would probably be more effective lobbying the EU which the UK is a member of.

      Anyway, why stop at one region? Asia, North America and the EU are all big polluters, they should all curb their habits.

      The US could probably make the easiest savings by discouraging low-mpg car use and encouraging more efficient electricity use, the amount of electricity the average US home uses is staggering relatively speaking.

      Home automation system R&D should be funded, if homes managed themselves the same way computers can turn themselves off when they're not in use, the savings would be enough to shut many power stations.

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    11. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Indeed, in a few years, they'll be emitting as much per capita as Germany 9.5t, the UK 7.7t and the US 17.5t

      t=tonnes of CO2 per annum per capita..

      I'm no fan of China's pollution 7t record but it seems odd to single them out.

      Lets ignore all the forest fires, which in one year alone put off more carbon then every car running in the US at one time for 10-15 years. That's not to say that industry and man isn't to blame but I'm seeing this as nothing more then propaganda anymore. Which isn't how it should be...

    12. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Desty · · Score: 1

      Surely, when the UK has a population of around 65 million, and China has a population of around 1400 million it makes a difference. We are talking about influencing government policy. So, we spend a huge effort changing UK policy, and at most we can effect a reduction in an output of:

      7.7t * 65m = 500.5 million t ... while at the same time China is outputing:

      7t * 1400m = 9800 million t.

      The entire UK output is 5% of China's. If the UK can reduce its output by 20% (hugely unlikely, as just holding steady seems impossible to do), while the Chinese increase theirs by just 1% then the two effects cancel out (to some rounding error that I can't be arsed to calculate).

      Focusing on those countries who are both raising their output the most and also have the largest populations (hello too India) seems perfectly sensible.

      So if it's "hugely unlikely" to reduce the UK's output, when their per capita emissions are higher than China's, how can we expect China to do it?

      Surely it's both fairer and more realistic to treat the targets on a per capita basis and not penalise China for having a large population.

    13. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So single out my country, Australia! We need it, S.O.S. Major trouble, please invade or get Obama to flex his drones ( unlikely as we are the USA..ustralia ) !

    14. Re:Time for GATT Article XX tariffs by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Tariffs avoid military conflict.

  3. Talking Point by mdsolar · · Score: 1, Informative

    Turns out that this is a misleading talking point. http://www.realclimate.org/ind...

    1. Re:Talking Point by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You don't say. Honest question to deniers: when you see this "hiatus" point, do you all go "ha very clever"? Or do any of you recognize extraordinarily short term thinking that doesn't honestly reflect the reality of statistical analysis of noise affected datapoints?

      Please I'd like to think there's at least one among your number who has enough hope to see the extraordinary dishonesty in this point.

    2. Re:Talking Point by durrr · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Why should I trust a non-peer reviewed blogpost from the PR outlet of the people finding themself in an embarassing pinch due to the catastrophic failure of their models?

      Why should I even trust their peer reviewed material when it obviously have minimal to no predictive power and by their own admission have become a failure due to temperatures being wildly divergent to their models/guesses.

      What functions do peer review fill when the peers are just as clueless as the authors but just happen to share the hunch or opinon? We might as well use anonymous online polling.

    3. Re:Talking Point by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Because you're damn well an idiot who didn't read the link, and how this is in keeping with the models?

    4. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Why should I trust a non-peer reviewed blogpost ..."

      For the same reason why you trusted a non-peer reviewed blogpost that there was a haitus and it is continuing.

    5. Re:Talking Point by geekoid · · Score: 1

      The model are excellent. I'm not sure why you think a model that predicts things we didn't expect, and then was confirmed by problem is a failure.

      It has strong predictive power, that has been confirmed many times.

      Regardless of this press release*, the science is extremely strong. This is why you make ad hom attacks instead of discussing the science.

      *I'm not sure how else you would expect an information on science to get released to the general public other then a PR release. People know about the findnig and can look at the actual scientific literature themselves.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    6. Re:Talking Point by flyneye · · Score: 1

      You got a point, any old activist can yell "foul" from the security of their paranoia, but, it takes some checks and balances to even begin compiling criteria to even begin figuring out projections, that even resemble reality.
      On the other hand, I understand, that marijuana LOVES CO2 and replaces oxygen nicely. Therefore, we should all invest heavily in the Industrial, medical, recreational marijuana industries and limit the amount of soil depleting cotton we grow, by legislation, if necessary.
      THIS is realistically within reach, especially if the U.N. gets off their granny panties and tears up that silly treaty that bans this potentially world saving plant.

      --
      *Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
    7. Re:Talking Point by BitZtream · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Okay, first things first, before we can have an actual discussion, you have to be honest.

      Claiming the models are excellent shows that you're either utterly ignorant of the topic at hand or you're flat out denying reality.

      The models are constantly being adjusted and science is constantly finding reasons to account for their incorrect models that don't explain anything thats happened in the last 20 years. Denying this part of reality just makes it clear you're a 'believer', not someone who is actually thinking for themselves.

      We can't even start a discussion until you actually accept reality, the models fucking suck. Its a massive, huge, unbelievably big system that we know pretty much dick about. Pretending the models are excellent is just wrong. They are better this year than they were last year, but excellent they are not.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    8. Re:Talking Point by phlinn · · Score: 1
      It is outside the 95% confidence interval of existing models, according to NOAA back in 2008.

      The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.

      Reading your link, their claim amounts to adding a new correction term to bring them in sync (that's what the new green line and range on the graph is). Which means they need another couple of decades to test the new modified models to see if they are sufficiently accurate. "We're right because we can add a correction term to cover this divergence that we didn't predict before" is entirely unconvincing. I find it highly suspicious that they chose to claim 2001 as the start, which doesn't match the date anyone else is using for the start of the current pause, 1999.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    9. Re:Talking Point by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Okay, so that doesn't actually answer the question of whether you think this innane point is meaningful.

      Either own it or don't defend it.

    10. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 5, Informative

      You haven't reviewed the data, you can't, its not public, so stop acting like you know any better than I do what the truth is.

      This data?

      http://www.realclimate.org/ind...

      Looks public to me.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    11. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It isn't 2008. PLEASE try to stay up to date.

      In 2008 it had been three years since the last record highest temp and two years from the next one.

    12. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 0

      The models aren't perfect but they're pretty good IMO. There haven't been any big surprises, even the "hiatus" is just a failure to predict exactly where the heat went. They're much better than anything the denialists have come up with so far, so I'll stick with our best knowledge

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    13. Re:Talking Point by sycodon · · Score: 1

      Funny...citing a misleading talking point to call something else a misleading talking point.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    14. Re:Talking Point by Richard+Dick+Head · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Honest answer from a denier. I've found myself jumping on the climate change skeptic bandwagon, and there are a bunch of different reasons for that, none of them having to do with the actual hard data or the models, or any of the details of the science, except for some specific tidbits that enable my skepticism. (For example, most of the models I've looked at predict milder summers and warmer winters in my particular area, and flooding in areas, not nearby, where people I don't like currently habitate)

      People (myself included) don't want to hear it for the same reason that people get huffy when you mention that whole food veganism is bar none the best diet to avoid cancer and heart disease. They'll just point out the few that stil get cancer, and still get heart disease. Or smokers when you point out the cancer risks...plenty of smokers don't have a problem and live to healthy old age.

      But, you CAN find a positive. If you point out that the hottie jogging down the street is always a non-smoker, and always either a vegan or a Paleo with higher than average vegetable intake, no one can really argue with that one, and if you ask one of them they'll confirm that observation every time.

      When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...Carbon Tax, Environmental Regulation, and all the other proposed measures that wind up trading modest pollution levels for wideband economic austerity.

      I know it is frustrating when you're trying to get people to stop polluting and people want to turn a blind eye to it and keep going about their business. Yet, basing your argument on science models that can predict the climate 10 years into the future yet somehow can't predict the climate tomorrow...yeah, if there are ANY holes whatsoever in your argument when you're preaching austerity, everyone is going to focus on the holes in the argument, no matter how small or short-sighted.

      I think you'll find less resistance from me or anybody else if you focus on things that elicit a positive image...like pushing increased research funds for cleaner burning engines, real fuel production alternatives like algae. Things that benefit everyone, AND reduce environmental impact. But by default I'm going to automatically assume your motive is to argue for higher taxes and economic austerity, and of course I'll get turned off pretty quick.

    15. Re:Talking Point by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Oddly, not misleading at all.

    16. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anyone studying the effects of volcanic activity and emissions from that? The three simultaneous eruptions in Russia, the flows in Hawaii, and elsewhere have doubtless contributed, but I have never seen a comparison of natural vs. man-made emissions.

    17. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Claiming that "Claiming the models are excellent shows that you're either utterly ignorant of the topic at hand or you're flat out denying reality." shows that you're either utterly ignorant of the topic at hand or you're flat out denying reality.

      The 1988 paper from Hansen predicted a climate sensitivity of 3.4C per doubling. If the actual concentrations of gasses rather than predicted trends are put in, his paper would have been almost spot on: 0.2C per doubling too high.

      Tell me, do you have any proof that the models are wrong other than your say so?

      Google "realclimate model data comprison" for a realclimate look at several models. And then check how well deniers' predictions have done with THEIR "models".

      NONE of the changes have changed the conclusion that AGW is real and likely to accord to the IPCC predictions in the 1980's of a climate sensitivity of around 3C per doubling of CO2.

      No matter how much you claim that you have YET ANOTHER digit to add to the number pi doesn't mean that pi is equal to 3 as claimed in the bible.

      Please inform yourself from something other than the raving delusions of the denialosphere. Either learn maths and check yourself or read what those who do the maths have found: the models have been better than 90% right, and NONE of the 10% includes "AGW is not a problem".

    18. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 2

      There have been studies on volcanoes in the past, in general the influence of volcanoes is very small vs. man-made emissions:

      http://www.skepticalscience.co...

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    19. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It's not public? Horseshit.

      You're just cheerleading for your team, it has nothing in particular to do with facts.

      No one is disputing that CO2 levels are rising. No one can dispute that CO2 absorbs radiation in the IR spectrum. No one can dispute that having more CO2 will trap more heat in the CO2-rich regions. An early argument against AGW was that the atmosphere is already opaque to Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR), which is true but incomplete. Increasing the partial pressure of CO2 extends the CO2-rich region further into space, acting like a blanket. The mean free path of an IR photon varies with altitude, but is generally in the low tens of meters, even in denialist literature. See also why IR photos from any distance look fuzzier than visible light photos. It turns out that the direct effect of a doubling of CO2 is about 3.7 W/m^2, which gives a figure of ~1 degree C rise in global temperature.

      No one is particularly worried about that. The issue is that we have a shit ton of this "H2O" stuff lying around, which will phase change into a much more effective greenhouse gas given the slightest provocation. In point of fact, the ability of air to contain water vapor rises exponentially with temperature.

      The figure of 1 degree C is extremely simple physics; a trivial application of the Stefan Boltzmann law. The amplifying effects are not understood quite as well, leading to a range of estimates for the total forcing effect. However, as denialists are so quick to point out, H2O is a much stronger greenhouse gas; it is not at all unreasonable to expect the combined forcing to show a positive feedback.

      This is not a religious argument. Your ignorance is not equal to the knowledge of others, or even the ignorance of someone who trusts in the scientific consensus. The physics involved here is not so complicated that you could not test it yourself; an IR source, a thermometer, and a CO2 source should be all you need.

      You are, for whatever reason, focusing on the noise, on your sense of outrage. You enjoy feeding that sense, especially with the idea that other people are trying to tell you what to do. You are ignoring the scientific foundation of these ideas. Science is empirical, and it took a long time before any scientist believed that humans could affect the climate, and just as long for the mechanism to be accepted. AGW has stood the test of about two centuries of real skepticism, coming from a point where there was even less evidence for it than for plate tectonics. There's practically no one misanthropic to the point where they want widespread disaster, including climate scientists. No one comes to this idea willingly. I am sure it's good to be skeptical of the extreme predictions, but jumping to another extreme (that nothing will happen) is also not warranted. I encourage you to seek knowledge, not spout ignorance.

    20. Re:Talking Point by dywolf · · Score: 3, Insightful

      the deniers are saying "its not happening" when every piece of evidence in the world (literally, the world) says "yes it is".

      in scientific debate, there are many places to have disagreement and debate.
      but reality itself isnt one of them.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    21. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Someone modded me Overrated after the first mod-up for linking to information the GP requested and proving one of his points fallacious.

      GP says that science is literally as political as politics and is closely comparable to a religion, remains unchallenged at +5.

      WTF?

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    22. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yet, basing your argument on science models that can predict the climate 10 years into the future yet somehow can't predict the climate tomorrow...yeah, if there are ANY holes whatsoever in your argument when you're preaching austerity, everyone is going to focus on the holes in the argument, no matter how small or short-sighted.

      You are making a major mistake here. You can't compare predicting climate (...10 years from now) to predicting weather (tomorrow). Weather is a chaotic system which has limited predictive properties. Small changes in one area can create massive changes in others, leading to failed predictions (You know, butterfly effect and all that).

      Climate on the other hand is has to do with LONG term weather trends, which are much more predictable. If you chart the average world wide temperature since the industrial revolution, the trend is going up. Sure there are peeks and valleys, but the TREND is towards a warmer climate. That's what people are concerned about. There are many ideas about how things will be effected, and there is plenty of room for debate in this category, but that's more arguing over how bad it is, not so much if it's bad.

      Many people like to look at the "hiatus" and say "look, the trend is changing", but they really don't understand how statistics work. There was an outlier in the past (1998 I think) where it was extraordinarily hot that year. Then the number regressed to mean (dipped back down to about the average). Since then, they have resumed a warming trend, but still haven't surpassed the 1998 high by very much. Hence the claim of a leveling off. But the reality is quite different from a "leveling off". What was an ANOMALY in 1998 is what is NORMAL today. That's not a good sign and speaks towards a larger warming trend. Finally to illustrate what I'm saying, imagine the number looked like this:

      1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 15, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

      As you can see there is a steady increase from 1-7, then a crazy outlier of 15, then the pattern regresses back to normal and continues to increase from 9-13.

      What the deniers are saying is "look from 15-13 there's a hiatus of the increase, it's even down from 15!". Which is BULLSHIT, the overall trend is still an increase. The "leveling off" is simply an anomalous peek in the data.

    23. Re:Talking Point by dywolf · · Score: 4, Informative

      You haven't reviewed the data, you can't, its not public, so stop acting like you know any better than I do what the truth is.

      All of the data. ALL OF IT. Is public. You are an idiot.

      http://www.noaa.gov/climate.ht...
      http://www.skepticalscience.co...

      Or even just google of wikipedia for it. It's all out there.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    24. Re:Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Your analysis is not very accurate.
      Roughly till 15 (nearly 20 even) years ago all the world, besides the USA, agreed we are in deep shit and need to do something about it.
      Then suddenly the USA woke up, but instead of agreeing and supporting actions against global warming politicians stand up and said? Uh, global warming? What is that? Artificial? Man made? Wow! Impossible! We need more data.
      Did you ever realize that the only country with AGW deniers is the USA? And you claim all the rest of the world are religious pro AGW (pro, haha) .... or do you consider the US americans who take AGW serious as religious zealots?
      Pft ... I'm 47 years old, I learned that AGW will be a problem when I was 12! But I was so stupid that till I was 20 and later 25 I assumed the problem would be solved "10 years" later.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    25. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL. WTF is a "denier"? Do you mean like a 'holocaust' denier? Which means 'anybody who questions the Jewish myth of the '6,000,000 Jews killed in GAS CHAMBERS' (LOL).

      www.climatedepot.com

      www.nazigassings.com

      Why would the German people want to GAS Jews to death, when it's the most difficult, time consuming, and dangerous method of killing even one person, let alone six million? Do you know that the Jews were using the magic '6 million' figure decades BEFORE the so-called 'holocaust' occurred?

      http://www.radioislam.org/islam/english/revision/six_million_myth.htm

      Look at all the newspaper articles from BEFORE the so-called 'holocaust', that use the '6 million' figure. Please explain.

    26. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How you're modded on Slashdot doesn't prove anything in any way.
       
      I see your name around a lot so I'm not going to make some pointless quip about you being new here. You've doubtlessly seen the +5 mods to utterly asinine "facts" while you see a slew of posts that correct the mistake that get no mods. Welcome to Slashdot.

    27. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You completely missed the point he was making. Well done.

    28. Re:Talking Point by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      It's not 'deniers' pointing out the hiatus, but actual peer reviewed scientists. They point out that the hiatus DOES matter because it's getting close to falling outside the error bars that were meant to take into account the 'statistical noise' you want to claim as excuse for inaccuracy. Surely you realize the stupidity in claiming, essentially, conflicting data doesn't contradict method X, after all, the data the method was based on is far too noisy to expect good results. Seems like your admitting to knowing too little, which is presumably what you mean to be arguing against,

    29. Re:Talking Point by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Anyone studying the effects of volcanic activity and emissions from that? The three simultaneous eruptions in Russia, the flows in Hawaii, and elsewhere have doubtless contributed, but I have never seen a comparison of natural vs. man-made emissions.

      Another "I don't know how to use google" post.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    30. Re:Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      If marijuana decomposes or is smoked it releases the exact same amount of CO2 it consumed during its growth ....
      So what would be the point? Besides dropping prices fro weed, ofc?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    31. Re:Talking Point by Jason+Levine · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Is your argument really: "Since the deniers keep denying, you'll have to eventually accept that they are right because they don't stop denying"?

      You do realize that this could be applied in other areas where it would be even more obviously wrong:

      "Since the Evolution-deniers keep denying Evolution, you'll need to one day accept that Evolution is wrong because 'how many times am I going to have to blow off the 'deniers' before I consider maybe I'm wrong about Evolution?'"

      "Since the vaccine-deniers keep insisting that vaccines are poison and don't work, you'll need to one day accept that vaccines are poison and don't work because 'how many times am I going to have to blow off the 'deniers' before I consider maybe I'm wrong about vaccines?'"

      Just because a group denies something strongly and repeatedly doesn't make them right.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    32. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I tried accessing the sources of raw data you presented. Many were password protected sites, and others contain the caveat "the data contains errors" and "the data is 'enhanced' filtered".

      So, I don't think your sources are exactly as you suggest them to be.

    33. Re:Talking Point by Layzej · · Score: 3, Informative

      The hottest year on record was 2010 - so we're 4 years in and 11 to go on your 15 years with 0 trend: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

    34. Re:Talking Point by volmtech · · Score: 1

      So why haven't the "other" countries of the world sanction the US? Don't sell us anything or buy anything from us. And tell me, how many coal plants are still running in China and Germany?

      Aside from a few simplistic slogans very little has been done by anyone to stop climate change. The only way is to start a war on fossil fuels, the kind where millions die to protect the rest. Without that kind of commitment it will be business as usual for the next 50 years, then billions die.

    35. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Could you point out which ones require passwords? I'll contact the site and recommend that they are at least put into a separate section for password-protected (I'm assuming paywalled) sources.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    36. Re:Talking Point by Rockoon · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Have you looked at the data?

      heading:

      Climate data (raw)

      The *first* link, which is to the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) "v2" data is not raw temperature data. I know that the site claims that its raw data, but only precipitation data is within the main data set. Within the "v2" set is a subfolder with temperature data in gridded (processed) format, and the readme for the gridded data specifically mentions that if you want actual raw temperature data to look at the GHCN data set (yay thats what we are doing....?) Unfortunately as I already pointed out, in the v2 data set there is only precipitation data and gridded (processed) data.

      Above the folder that is linked to are links to other data. The GHCN has gone through two significant changes since its inception in 1992. They are affectionately called "v1", "v2", and "v3." The v1 data is culled and processed data presenting only monthly mean temperatures (most stations do daily recording.) This data also only goes up to 1997 at which point v2 took over. So v1 contains culled and processed data and as I already pointed out, the v2 data does not include unprocessed temperature data either. So the raw data must be in v3, right? Let me quote the readme file for v3: "A new software processing system is now responsible for daily reprocessing of the dataset. This reprocessing consists of a construction process that assembles the data in a specific source priority order, quality controls the data, identifies inhomogeneities and performs adjustments where possible." and of course this is again monthly mean temperatures, not the raw station data.

      This sort of story is true for every single link. Some of the links are literally to bitmap images of graphs, rather than to data. Others are links to only the most recent measurements at each measurement station (which itself isnt comprehensive), rather than to the hundred+ years of supposed historical data.

      They claim the raw data is available, and go so far as to pretend to link to the raw data, and that of course gets people like you to shout down people that want the raw data.

      Now to be perfectly clear what just transpired. People are asking for the raw data and are saying that the climate scientists wont release it. You then responded by linking to the blog of those very same climate scientists that it is claimed wont release the data (realclimate is run by Mann, Jones, Hansen, etc.) This blog claims to link to the raw data but actually does not. And finally, yuou tried to shout down someone that wants the raw data by yourself claiming that the raw data is available by citing the blog of the people it is claimed wont release the raw data and does not itself link to the raw data but claims that it does link to the raw data.

      Do you feel at all duped?

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    37. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You moved the goalposts, you're the first in this thread to ask for raw data, as in unadjusted daily (not monthly) values. That's gigabytes of data you're asking for which may not exist anymore - the climate models almost certainly don't use daily values after all, that's probably useful for a local weather report but unnecessarily fine-grained for long-term climate predictions.

      And couldn't unadjusted values cause errors due to the urban heat island effect? That was all the rage among "skeptics" in the early/mid-2000s.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    38. Re: Talking Point by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      And yet, america has cut its emissions the most over the last 20 years. And when oco2 has numbers, it will no doubt shock the world to find USA at the lower end of emissions.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    39. Re:Talking Point by Prune · · Score: 0

      It's because you're a crybaby complaining about moderation on Slashdot. Seriously, are you 12?

      --
      "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    40. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Real Climate...you mean the site run by a CARTOONIST?

    41. Re:Talking Point by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      This is so untrue it hurts.

      They just had a crop of them elected to controlling offices in Australia, for example.

    42. Re:Talking Point by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Our models of gravity are constantly being adjusted. Still, they have excellent predictive power and so do climate models.

      Also, different models serve different purposes. The simple models which show how much extra heat is being trapped are very straightforward and are not changed much because they have been highly accurate for the longest time.

      The models that predict where that heat ends up are much more complicated and have been tweaked over decades.

      The basic model is not a massive system that we know little about. It is basic undergraduate thermodynamics and astrophysics. We can measure the albedo, we can measure, the net change caused by the greenhouse effect, and we can measure the solar irradience. This is a simple system that gives us a highly accurate measurement of how much net energy is gained or lost from year to year.

      The complicated part is figuring out how all that extra energy caused by the buildup of greenhouse gasses is distributed.

    43. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      You haven't reviewed the data, you can't, its not public, ...

      Any time I see someone claiming this I know they haven't tried themselves and they're just repeating something they read on a blog somewhere. It makes it easy for me to dismiss their post.

    44. Re:Talking Point by Tharkkun · · Score: 1

      the deniers are saying "its not happening" when every piece of evidence in the world (literally, the world) says "yes it is".

      in scientific debate, there are many places to have disagreement and debate. but reality itself isnt one of them.

      No one denies it's not happening. What's being denied is whether humans are playing a part in it. We actually don't know regardless of how many times you take measurements and record data. We have no idea what the temperature was one thousand or a million years ago. Dinosaurs were thought to have lived in much hotter climate so post ice age (asteroid theory) we could very well be returning to the original climate of our planet. The only thing we can tell is the earth is slowly warming.

    45. Re:Talking Point by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      I think you'll find less resistance from me or anybody else if you focus on things that elicit a positive image...like pushing increased research funds for cleaner burning engines, real fuel production alternatives like algae. Things that benefit everyone, AND reduce environmental impact.

      You're hoping for some future technology to save us all--a deus ex machina. But there are things we can do now. For example, eliminate subsidies and favoritism for automobiles.

      Oh, but this would hurt Big Oil and people who love to drive, so it wouldn't benefit everyone.

      You can't please everyone all the time, so why should we even try?

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    46. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you ever stop and consider that you don't actually know shit about climatology and that you're just falling right in with the cult as if you were a religious nut job
      The irony in this statement reminds me of the way Conservatives like the Colbert Report because they think he's serious and making fun of Liberals.

      I can't think of any modern "movement" that more resembles the religious movement against Darwin's Theory of Evolution than the climate change deniers. They are so perfectly mirrored that in most discussions you can simply change the words "global warming" to "evolution" and you have Kirk Cameron right there in front of you. The irony is only made more delicious by your appeal to authority by suggesting people who admit reality are falling in with a cult due to lack of scientific knowledge, despite the fact that the overwhelming consensus of the scientific community spanning many disciplines backs the "cult."

    47. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No I didn't. I recognize that the poster was attempting to suggest that the way the message is conveyed just as important as the message itself. But then he also demonstrated that with a broken concept. That prediction of weather is comparable to prediction of climate. I pointed out a flaw in a statement made (the first paragraph and second of my response).

      Then addressed a larger point which was part of this thread (the so called warming hiatus).

    48. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You're appealing to reason with people who's beliefs are not informed by reason at all. It's never going to have an effect on them. The very first question you should ask a denier, and be prepared for evasion, is, "what evidence would convince you that the Earth's climate is warming and that human carbon emissions are the primary cause?" They're either not going to answer, or answer with a standard far above and beyond any level of evidence they require for other scientific theories. The reason is because they aren't willing to change their minds no matter what the facts are, and when cornered with admitting that fact they'll deflect.

    49. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Also the poster made a pretty clear point about doubting climate change not based on the merits of the science, but based on the fact that he doesn't like the economic ramifications of admitting it's a problem. For for example, economic austerity. This is a TERRIBLE reason to doubt something is true, quite possible the worst reason I can think of.

      It's effectively saying "I don't believe that X is a problem, even though there is a mountain of evidence that it is a problem, because if it were, I wouldn't like the solution".

      Frankly that's stupid. Believing something because it makes you feel better doesn't make it true, it makes you naive. Doubt the facts all you like, just lets the adults who can handle the truth whether it's pleasant or not decide how to deal with things.

    50. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...

      The only corrective measure that works in the long run is to reduce CO2 emissions to near zero. How you get there isn't important as long as you do. So if you don't like the proposed solutions come up with your own keeping in mind the ultimate goal.

      Yet, basing your argument on science models that can predict the climate 10 years into the future yet somehow can't predict the climate tomorrow...

      Climate models don't even project 10 years into the future well, they work more on 30 year time scales. What happens tomorrow is weather, not climate. An analogy is rolling dice. You can't very well predict the results of one or even a few tosses of the dice but you can make a pretty good estimation of the results of 10,000 tosses.

    51. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      The full name is "Climate Science Denier". It's funny how the only people making the connection from climate science denier to holocaust denier are the climate science deniers. It must be a defensive tactic.

    52. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      We can't even start a discussion until you actually accept reality ...

      We also can't start a discussion about models until you demonstrate an understanding of what models are capable of in the first place. Current models are better than any other method we have for projection future climate.

    53. Re:Talking Point by Robear · · Score: 2

      That argument that deep austerity is needed is bogus, however. For years, economists and climate scientists and even skeptics have been arguing that whether or not the problem exists (okay, well, now they usually admit it exists), there is an entire new economic sector that can be opened up to private businesses - climate change mitigation. And that is a net *positive* to the global economy, for the economy as well as through the development of new technology. The fact that if bad things are averted we also gain economically from avoiding them is icing on the cake. The downside? All the major fossil fuel industries are looking at a "co-opt or die" scenario. Cui bono?

      You can do this without extreme taxation or austerity, IF you start reasonably soon (in the next few years would be good - we passed ideal a few years back). It's the fear and exaggeration of the costs, largely put out by fossil industry interests, that is delaying change.

      So if you really do just tune out and think of nutbar extremists when you consider the costs of this, what you're selecting is guaranteed to be the most expensive path through the next few decades. If you're *lucky*, the cost of that will be minimal as thousands of climate scientists are proven to be wrong. But if you're wrong, well.. That's when that choice gets ugly for your kids.

      How much are you willing to be that the climate scientists and their peer-review system are so totally corrupt and incompetent that they are completely wrong? Your future, and your kids and grandkids futures? Hey... Go for it. Maybe modern climate science is the equivalent of catastrophe geology up against Alfred Wegener. But... That's a huge bet to make against the professionals.

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    54. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you linking to the published temperatures or the measured temperatures?

    55. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The pause is real.

      Summary:

      "The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations..."

      "The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system."

      In other words...whoops! we left some pretty important shit out and if we'd did our due diligence by seeing if these things worked on the past, we'd have been able to predict this. One wonders what else they've left out.

    56. Re:Talking Point by pastafazou · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's not moving goalposts. If you ask for the data, you expect you'll get the original recordings, not a bunch of values that have been adjusted arbitrarily at someone's whim without an explanation of those adjustments and a means of extracting the original values.

    57. Re: Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      ROFL.
      The USA are the best, we all know that. Especially in marketing.
      The USA still produces 3 times the amount of CO2 per capita than China or germany and two times as much as a UK citicen.... you have still to go a long long long way.
      Not even challenging if your claim is true or not ... the amount you think you have reduced or the amount you actually did is just a droplet in the water ... insignificant. I don't get why you seem so proud about it.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    58. Re:Talking Point by dywolf · · Score: 1

      then you havent looked very hard.
      this study has been done many times over.

      volcanoes emit ~3 billion tons of CO2 globally, yearly.
      human emissions on the other hand are >40 billion tons, globally, annually.

      http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad...

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    59. Re:Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Germany has reduced its CO2 production by over 20% in relation to 1997.

      Unfortunately sanctioning USA is against a few dozen trade treaties ... pretty difficult. And the USA have the nukes ... still. But it is only a matter of time.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    60. Re:Talking Point by sexconker · · Score: 0

      Wrong. Go look at the fucking data and read it.
      It's all adjusted bullshit. If you want RAW data you won't be able to find it. if you do manage to find it, you'll quickly see that it's so wildly different from the "adjusted" data that anything referencing the adjusted data is absolutely worthless.

    61. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, this link actually posts just a fraction of data. The good stuff is locked away, available for purchase.

    62. Re:Talking Point by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      Here is my favorite line of climate modeling code: valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor

    63. Re:Talking Point by Richard+Dick+Head · · Score: 1

      You're hoping for some future technology to save us all--a deus ex machina.

      Is it incorrect to have hope for the future when it comes to technology? If you told someone from 1959 that in 10 years we would have our human deus ex machina moment all the way to the moon, and then go walk around on it...the response would probably be incredulous. But after so much win happening all around us every day, isn't a bit premature to suggest that we can't collectively come up with a solution by simply giving the science or the market time to cook up something more effective than an edict from above could provide?

      "Big Oil" works out pretty well for everyone right now. Eventually we'll be complaining about "Big Algae", I'm certain.

    64. Re: Talking Point by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Sadly, idiots like you do not look at facts and need to put somebody else down all the time, typically with lies.
      First, america or capita is about 2x both Europe's AND China. China's per capita has risen fast to be about Europe's rate.
      Secondly, over the last 20 years, Europe's rate has not changed much. In POF, america is the only major nation to have made major cuts.
      Thirld, Co2 is tied to manufacturing, not ppl. Those who choose per capita are kidding themselves. As such, Europe is in the lead on that, but america is in the middle of the European pack. But China is in the bottom 5 in terms of co2 per $ real GDP.

      And while China continues to grow their emissions by 3-5% a year, and Europe is actually growing as well, only Americas continues to fall.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    65. Re:Talking Point by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Climate models don't even agree to 10 years out, much less 30.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    66. Re:Talking Point by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Only because we have models that make all the possible predictions. One will be right.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    67. Re:Talking Point by mpe · · Score: 1

      Climate models don't even project 10 years into the future well, they work more on 30 year time scales.

      So do those from 1984 do a better job than those form 2004 when it comes to matching what we observe to be the case now? No matter how each group of models compare with the other how well do they do in absolute terms?

    68. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The models are constantly being adjusted and science is constantly finding reasons to account for their incorrect models that don't explain anything thats happened in the last 20 years. Denying this part of reality just makes it clear you're a 'believer', not someone who is actually thinking for themselves.

      The amount of outright denial which goes on in the "warmist camp" makes it just makes things so ironic.

    69. Re:Talking Point by dywolf · · Score: 1

      no wait. i was wrong.
      miscounted my zeroes.
      my bad.

      volcanoes arent 3 billion tons.
      they only do 0.3 billion tons.

      so we emit >100x the amount that volcanoes do.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    70. Re: Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Iif the raw data is unavailable how do you know its been adjusted? You're just talking out of your ass.

    71. Re:Talking Point by flyneye · · Score: 1

      Dropping weed prices would facilitate a healthier definitely,longer lasting and arguably more potent, in some cases, high. Food, nutritious and delicious and topical unguents , as well. Whatever isn't used for the industrial hemp is fed to livestock. Marijuana has potential as a superfood. Food, cloth, paper, medicine,machine oil and more.
      If the CO2 isn't lost in some process, then it stands to reason we have the same amount of CO2 as we began with. I believe outdoor marijuana grown far longer than a minimal 12 week cycle would convert more CO2 than it produces. Elsewise, other plants are no better and this is all a delusion we've been laboring under in Dark City.....

      --
      *Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
    72. Re:Talking Point by sillybilly · · Score: 1

      It's urban sprawl and grass cutting of bushy and wooded areas, now made vogue all over the world, just like forced insurance. It is the senseless grass cutting that keeps carbon storage in fertile areas low per acre, dumping it all into the atmosphere. The world population is growing out of control, and so does the lawn acreage expansion with it, together with food crop areas, though food crop has a good excuse. But a lawn grass layer 2 inches tall vs. a bushy layer 12 inches to 60 inches or forested layer 5 to 30 meters tall, that's a whole lot of difference in carbon storage ability, per acre. It is the senseless grass cutting, and senseless devastation of weed flower dependent bugs like butterflies, above everything else, that's gonna precipitate a global economic collapse, brought on on purpose by the mind controlling parasites that inhabit every living animal, including every human being.

    73. Re:Talking Point by budgenator · · Score: 1

      The hiatus still continues.
      And yes there is a hiatus nowdays even in the mainstream pro-agw camp, saying otherwise makes you a denier.

      Turns out that this is a misleading talking point. http://www.realclimate.org/ind...

      from your link

      Unfortunately, however, the hiatus looks likely to be temporary, with projections suggesting that when the trade winds return to normal strength, - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/ind...

      If the hiatus is a misleading talking point, why are the warmistas trying so hard to spin it into a supposedly temporary event? There been something like 38 different hypotheses as to why the warming has stopped for eighteen years.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    74. Re:Talking Point by budgenator · · Score: 1

      You moved the goalposts, you're the first in this thread to ask for raw data, as in unadjusted daily (not monthly) values. That's gigabytes of data you're asking for which may not exist anymore - ...

      If the raw data doesn't exist, (Phil Jones admited it was destroyed shortly after Climategate) then the results can't be replicated, and if the results can't be replicated it isn't science.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    75. Re:Talking Point by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you need to learn to count? http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist...

    76. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter when a climate model was created. You can run them for any time period regardless.

      Keep in mind that when I say they work on a 30 year average you're going to have to wait until 2029 to determine what the actual 30 year average for 2014 is so you have something to compare to climate model output.

      If you're wondering where the 30 year time period comes from it's defined as the classical climatological period by the World Meteorological Organization and thus is the standard period used by climatologists. It might be a bit arbitrary but you couldn't shorten it by more than 2 or 3 years without starting to run into problems caused by short term variability.

    77. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Confusion, I don't understand your point. Climate models by their very nature aren't expected to be particularly accurate on 10 year time scales. If they happen to be it's just a coincidence.

    78. Re:Talking Point by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      No, none will be precisely right and if one is it's just a coincidence. As George Box famously said "All models are wrong but some are useful." The model results you see in the IPCC WG1 reports are actually a composite of many different model results averaged together. Those results are likely better than any individual model since each model has it's strengths and weaknesses.

    79. Re:Talking Point by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      GP says that science is literally as political as politics and is closely comparable to a religion, remains unchallenged at +5.

      Are you sure? Looks like it's at +0,Troll to me.
      You should never complain about moderation until the comments are at least half a day old anyway. It fluctuates way too wildly in the early hours to draw conclusions.

    80. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...Carbon Tax, Environmental Regulation, and all the other proposed measures that wind up trading modest pollution levels for wideband economic austerity.

      I see what is the problem.
      You think that economy is somehow hardwired to wasteful technology of today. However, each major change of business conditions, either technological, environmental or regulatory, temporarily destroys the incumbents who don't jump on the bandwagon, but also creates massive space of opportunities for those who replace them.

      Refurbishing and reinventing the whole industry and food production, creating whole new now inexistent types of businesses, it is such a great opportunity, like another wave of industrial revolutions, in fact it would be a sum of all previous industrial revolutions, because virtually everything we use or produce has to be rethought, redesigned, and old substituted with new.

      If we get down to it, we will have more growth then we had for decades and it will last for quite some time.

    81. Re:Talking Point by tbannist · · Score: 1

      When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...Carbon Tax, Environmental Regulation, and all the other proposed measures that wind up trading modest pollution levels for wideband economic austerity.

      Why would you think that Carbon taxes or environmental regulation would actually trigger "wideband economic austerity"? We've been through similar measures at least twice before (CFCs and Acid Rain) and as non-intuitive as it may seem now, the interventions actually turned out to have a small positive effect on the economy. It turns out that when pollution is free, there is a certain inertia where companies often don't take steps that would actually be beneficial to their bottom line because the benefit is perceived to be small and potentially risky.

      Furthermore, there are several countries (and areas withing individual countries) already have carbon taxes and regulation and they have not been driven out of business by their less-regulated competition. Norway, for example, has had a carbon tax for over 20 years.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    82. Re:Talking Point by dave420 · · Score: 1

      A "slowdown in the rate of global warming" is not a hiatus. A hiatus is a pause or break - we are currently witnessing a slight slowdown. "Hiatus" implies there is no warming, when all evidence suggests there is still warming.

    83. Re:Talking Point by dave420 · · Score: 1

      The silence is staggering! It's almost as if he doesn't want to see the data and was looking for some reason to condemn the science because it suits him to do so.

    84. Re:Talking Point by dave420 · · Score: 1

      The ignorance is staggering. You clearly haven't even tried to study AGW or even read a summary by someone versed in the science and how to convey it to laymen. How you can post that with a straight face, knowing full-well you are being either willfully ignorant or intellectually lazy, is beyond me.

    85. Re:Talking Point by dave420 · · Score: 1

      "Big Oil" is only working out pretty well for everyone if you ignore the mountains of evidence that it's having a horrific effect on the climate. It's only working out well for those who are ignorant (either on purpose or by accident) of AGW. You seem to be espousing a position of "don't fix any problems (as other problems will undoubtedly arise), and some awesome solution will probably be discovered to fix everything, which we should definitely bet the future of humanity as we know it on", which is clearly pathetic.

    86. Re:Talking Point by dave420 · · Score: 1

      There is no hiatus, but a slowing down of warming. The warming is still happening, but at a slightly slower rate than predicted. So yeah, it's deniers who point out the hiatus, as it doesn't exist.

    87. Re:Talking Point by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      I'll be sure to break the bad news to astronomers (do they save the raw analog data stream from each receiver? At what resolution?), geologists (do they store every core they ever take? Every seismograph reading?) and physicists (you know the many terabytes of data the LHC produces every day? That's just one thousandth of the raw data, most of which is filtered off and never stored).

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    88. Re:Talking Point by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      There is no hiatus, but a slowing down of warming. The warming is still happening, but at a slightly slower rate than predicted. So yeah, it's deniers who point out the hiatus, as it doesn't exist.

      So deniers like the authors and editors of peer reviewed journals like The National Academy of Sciences and Geophysical Research Letters and Nature. Nature in particular publishing an article with the 'denier' skewed title of "Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus".

      Nothing burns me more than somebody faking as though they are all for the scientific process and defending it's 'findings' while at the same time totally ignoring the actual science. The reality as pointed out in the 3 linked articles, and many, many, many more is that since 1998 the rate of warming has dropped off heavily enough it no longer matches most predictions or modelling very well. Something in the predictions and modelling was missed that is happening in the real world, and has caused an apparent 'hiatus' in the rate of warming that was expected. Tracking, identifying and understanding that is important science, and thankfully they haven't stopped to listen to people like you who would prefer to deny that reality.

    89. Re:Talking Point by phlinn · · Score: 1

      Bullshit. I cited a 2008 article because they named a period that would indicate the models were dead.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    90. Re:Talking Point by phlinn · · Score: 1

      The existence of an outlier in noisy data is NOT THE SAME THING as ending a trend. The trendline for the last 15 years is flat. http://cosmoscon.com/2013/03/1... gives some pictures so I don't have to.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    91. Re:Talking Point by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You can use woodfortrees.org to check for yourself. The folks you cited are using data sets without global coverage, and starting at the (then) 3 sigma El Nino anomaly. The missing data is important, but even still the trend shows a rise of 0.1C over the period: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/h...

      I'm not sure why they drew a flat line through that data when the trend is actually up.

      It is worth noting that the 3 sigma event that they chose as their starting point is now not that remarkable an event. Modest El Ninos will exceed that event at this point. Soon ENSO neutral years will top that event.

      Satellite data compiled by skeptics Spencer and Christy shows 0.08C over the period: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/u...

      The data they omit is important. Here is a data set with near global coverage. It shows a rise of 0.14C over the period: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/g...

    92. Re:Talking Point by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The only corrective measure that works in the long run is to reduce CO2 emissions to near zero.

      That's not necessarily true. There are possible geoengineering schemes that might work, for some sense of "work". Dumping iron into the ocean was an earlier idea, hoping to cause an algae bloom that then would sink and be sequestered on the ocean floor. The fact that it didn't work when tested doesn't mean no such scheme could. There's several ideas to reduce the amount of sunlight that hits the planet, although that would have other, probably bad, effects.

      On the other hand, we have a finite supply of sequestered carbon we can release (it's gotta be a lot less than 10^25 kg), and it will become less and less economical to access those fossil fuels (coal mining is pointless when it takes as much energy as the coal releases), so in the long run we will reduce net CO2 emissions to near zero. I'd like to find a way of doing that that doesn't return us to dinosaur-era climate, myself.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    93. Re:Talking Point by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      We don't know that humans are playing a large part in approximately the same sense that we don't know the sun will come up in the east tomorrow morning. Further, we darn well have good ideas what the temperature was a thousand or a million years ago. We've been developing ways to tell.

      As far as Earth's original climate, who cares about that? I'm interested in the climate variation over the evolution of the human species, and in particular the development of civilization. The modern world is set up for a certain climate variability, and a change to dinosaur-era conditions is going to cause a whole lot of grief. I'd rather avoid that.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    94. Re:Talking Point by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Do you believe in Uranus and Neptune? Newton's gravitational theory made predictions. Saturn's orbit wasn't quite in accord with the predictions. Using your reasoning, the proper thing to do was to throw out the theory because it made bad predictions. Instead, scientists figured that if there was an additional planet beyond Saturn, it might account for the variations, and it was probably in a certain area. The same thing with the orbit of Uranus resulted in the discovery of Neptune. (As it happens, the discrepancies in Mercury's orbit did turn out to be a problem with the Newtonian theory, rather than the hypothetical planet Vulcan.)

      The generally accepted science shows the planetary surface absorbing more heat, and up until now it looked like it mostly went into the atmosphere (with some discrepancies like El Nino/Nina). The considerable slowing in observed atmospheric temperatures may have a Uranus/Neptune-like explanation.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    95. Re: Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The one who is lying is you.

      Germany roughly 7tons per capita, USA roughly 18tons, that is close to a factor of 3, not 2.

      Chinas rate is still on the lower edge of European countries like Denmark or Germany.

      Secondly, over the last 20 years, Europe's rate has not changed much
      That is complete nonsense. Europes footprint dropped by 30%.

      In POF, america is the only major nation to have made major cuts
      That is nonsense, too.
      Since 1997 you dropped perhaps in 5% ... if at all.

      And while China continues to grow their emissions by 3-5% a year, and Europe is actually growing as well, only Americas continues to fall.
      wow three lies in one sentence, you are good at that.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    96. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      It hasn't been warming for 17 years. It's been warming for 16 years, mind you, and it's been warming for 18 years; and for 15 and for 19, and so on. You don't have to be a statistician to see that the best interpretation of that is that 1998 was one damn hot year on a background of every increasingly hot years.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    97. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Why are you telling us? If that site claims the days is available and it isn't, you should be raising holy hell on their comment pages, and if you get no satisfaction, bring the attention of all the skeptic sites to the matter.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    98. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      So you are saying that the climate isn't warming? The data is cooked?

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    99. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Which brings up another point; any serious statistician, and anybody with a little brainpower, should understand the error of applying statistical methods developed for a set of simultaneous samples, to a time series set of the same sample, over time. Cyclic phenomena, for instance, present over time, but not defined for a set of different samples st the same time. So, with the denialists' reliance on solar cycles, Milankovich cycles, cosmic ray cycles, etc to provide fodder for their hypothetical "it might be ..." handwaving, you'd think they'd be less likely to apply simple linear regression to some dozen or so time points without any effort at adjusting for periodicity, then take the result as definitive. The answer, of course, is that adjusting for the periodicity in this case reinforces the validity of AGW, while otherwise just waving the idea of periodicity around vaguely gives them cover to deny any results they don't like. The most you can say about this"hiatus" is that it gives us a few years of breathing room to get our act together before the warming rises again, possibly making up for lost time. Over the past few decades, similar pauses have shown up a dozen times, yet the background overall process was still inexorable warming; there isn't the slightest reason to believe "this time, it's over for sure". Other than wishful thinking, of course. When the temperature has been flat for 30 years, that'll be good evidence things have changed. Meanwhile, of course, most of the denialists believe that not only has the warming stopped, but there never was any in the first place. After all, they were telling us there was no warming, until they decided it had stopped.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    100. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Yes, everyone publishing in the climate study biz who says they are basing it on the data is lying! They're only getting away with it because the scale of the deception is so huge as to be unbelievable. That's certainly a more logical explanation than some nonsense about CO2 absorbing infrared.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    101. Re: Talking Point by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Metadenialism; the denial of the existence of denialists. You are claiming "no one denies it's not warming", in the middle of a thread begun by somebody claiming that the data is not available for review. If he's not claiming that it's not warming, then what is he talking about? If he believes it's warming, why does he think they're hiding the data? Or do you think he thinks they're hiding the data that shows that CO2 isn't rising? There isn't any other data for them to hide

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    102. Re: Talking Point by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      The one who is lying is you.

      Germany roughly 7tons per capita, USA roughly 18tons, that is close to a factor of 3, not 2.

      Per the European Edgar DB, Figure 2.4, American per capita in 2012, was 16.4. In Germany, it was just under 10. That is a factor of 1.5, and no where NEAR 3x.

      Chinas rate is still on the lower edge of European countries like Denmark or Germany.

      in 2012, China's per capita was at ~7.2, while Europe's was at ~7.3. That was two years ago.
      Since that time, Chinas CO2 emissions have risen more than 20%. China now accounts for more than 1/3 of the global emissions, with less than 1/6 of the world population.
      And all of that is based on numbers that Chinese gov. has given up. OCO2 is about to shock the world and liars like yourself.

      Secondly, over the last 20 years, Europe's rate has not changed much That is complete nonsense. Europes footprint dropped by 30%.

      In POF, america is the only major nation to have made major cuts That is nonsense, too. Since 1997 you dropped perhaps in 5% ... if at all.

      And while China continues to grow their emissions by 3-5% a year, and Europe is actually growing as well, only Americas continues to fall. wow three lies in one sentence, you are good at that.

      Per edgar, EU27 was at 4.12 in 1992. In 2012, you were at 3.74. That is a 10% drop.
      Now, in the same time span, we increased heavily due to W (from 5->5.91), and then due to our cheap nat gas, we dropped BELOW 5, though, edgar shows America at 5.19 in 2012. However, other groups show that 2013 was a major drop for America, pretty much a fixed level for Europe (esp. due to Germany's killing of their nukes and their massive build-out of coal plants), and a REAL MASSIVE increase for China's emissions.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    103. Re:Talking Point by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      The existence of an outlier in noisy data is NOT THE SAME THING as ending a trend. The trendline for the last 15 years is flat. http://cosmoscon.com/2013/03/1... gives some pictures so I don't have to.

      By the last 15 years you mean "The 15 years from 1998 till (January) 2013". That is actually missing the last 1.5 years. Not to mention that it starts in the cherry picker's most favorite year. That sure was a good year for cherries.

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
    104. Re:Talking Point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is why you make ad hom attacks instead of discussing the science.

      Oh, that's just fucking PRICELESS coming from you, Geekoid!

    105. Re: Talking Point by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Well, no idea about your numbers.
      Most "official" sites have completely different numbers, e.g. claiming that china would produce 1/3 of the worlds CO2 right now is nonsense ... but believe it if you want.

      After all you believe this bullshit: pretty much a fixed level for Europe (esp. due to Germany's 1)killing of their nukes and their 2)massive build-out of coal plants
      1) the nuclear plants are still running ... from roughly 20 plants about 5 are shut down. Next try?
      2) There are no "build ups" of coal plants. We build new coal plants and face out old one. Bottom line we are at -6 plants I believe.
      If you have had your head in the ass the last years: Germany is producing 1/3 of its energy with renewables ... how the funk should there be a reason to increase the amount of coal plants?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    106. Re:Talking Point by phlinn · · Score: 1

      After playing with the data for a bit, I found one set of data that has a downward trend. The RSS MSU lower trop global mean. Starting in 1999, which is a more reasonable year, it shift to a slight upward trend. Unfortunately your site doesn't give a value for the slope. Eyeballing it, 2002 or thereabouts is a better start, which drops them below the 15 year cutoff, except the line from NOAA didn't exclude peak to trough periods.

      Being highly set dependent is suspicious, but the on the other side the adjusments made to surface station data are suspicious in nature based on my own checking. Specifically, averaging all adjustments for the GHCN after the flap about the Darwin station, I found a definite warming linear trend in the adjustments. The USHCN had a significant quadratic trend in adjustments, such that 80% or more of the warming trend in the data was created by the adjustments.

      They were using global coverage. CRU Global average in the downward trend, and UAH in the one that had a very slight upward trend (.0004 per year). I can't see the slope of the trendline on that site you gave, but visually it's the same. Calling that basically flat is defensible, assuming reasonable error bars.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    107. Re:Talking Point by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Hi Phlinn,

      Yes, the RSS is an outlier. Should we put our faith in the minority report? Woodfortrees will show slope if you click the 'data' link at the bottom of the graph.

      Be careful if you are suggesting that the various groups analyzing station temperature are all colluding to show the same result - a result that agrees with the UAH satellite reconstruction compiled by skeptics Spencer and Christy. The adjustments are all documented in the scientific literature. They appear to be necessary in order to make the data more accurately reflect the true global average temperature.

      CRU does not have global coverage. CRU has been shown to have a cool bias due to the missing data. Even still, it does show an upward trend of 0.1C over the period. Please look again: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/h....

    108. Re:Talking Point by phlinn · · Score: 1

      I'm not in support of using the minority report. I would quibble about basically flat and could argue that some of the slopes qualify, but thanks for pointing out the data link to get the slope of the line.

      I think the more likely issue is just a matter of bias, not deliberate malfeasance. It's really hard to see errors in something when you get the results you expect. For TOBS adjustments for USHCN in particular, a mathematical artifact from the way they try to correct for it seemed more likely. That's based solely on my intuition as a mathematician though. Since we know they have engaged in deliberate efforts to conceal disconfirming evidence, and to punish journals for publishing papers whose conclusions they didn't like, I don't consider malfeasance completely implausible.

      It's interesting to just plot the trendline of various sets. I especially find it interesting when you do so from the year I suggested previously, 2002.

      CRU Global Average is how they described in on their page. Going by the link, it was HADCRUT3. Which shoes only .01C over the period. They didnt specifiy variance adjusted or not, and their choice of endpoints were on specific months, so i'm going to go with some cherry picking there as well.

      I meant to include this in my previous line. The way NOAA wrote that note in 2008 did not exclude peak to trough periods of 15 years or longer. It's a reasonable exclusion to make though, so I decline to hold that against them.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    109. Re:Talking Point by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Hi Phlinn

      HADCRUT3 has even less coverage than HADCRUT4. Why not use the latest and greatest? Regarding mathematical artifacts, replication over many different reconstructions using different methods and different data gives us confidence in the results. Regarding malfeasance, I'm not sure that the resignation of a journal's editor when it becomes clear that the journal is pushing an agenda at the expense of the truth is malfeasance. I'm not inclined to discuss conspiracy theories although I know these narratives are popular. Suffice it to say that I disagree.

      Regarding plotting from 2002, yes the trend line is negative for some data sets. It is more negative if you plot from 2010. What does that tell us? Note that the data is consistently above the trend until about 2007. Note that the data cycles above and below the trend as PDO and ENSO wax and wane. What we are seeing is a steady upward trend with natural variability superimposed on top. We're below the trend line now and the indicators show that we should be. That means we will go back above when the indicators flip back to the positive part of their cycle.

      When you look at the data, do you have any expectation that the next El Nino will not be the new hottest year on record? That's even with the PDO strongly negative. You can subtract ENSO and PDO from the trend with this tool and you end up with something closer to the real trend: http://scratch.mit.edu/project...

      P.S. if you have kids then you should introduce them to Scratch. I've been showing it to my kids and I've become addicted :) Please pardon the Scratch evangelism :)

    110. Re:Talking Point by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Hey Phlinn, In addition to my notes above, I just noticed that you can plot PDO in woodfortrees. Plot from 2002 and it shows negative: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/j...

      The PDO cycle dominates over the short term, so if PDO is negative then atmospheric temperatures will be negative. PDO does not have a trend.over the long run so while it has a great effect on the 10 or 20 year trend, it has no effect on the long term trend.

  4. Now who could it be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...maybe BRICS!?

    (apologies to Dana Carvey)

  5. obviously rubbish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    As an anonymous coward with no ties to the oil industry I can tell that this is rubbish. The headline says "atmospheric CO2" that was my first clue. Everyone who brings up this insignificant gas is a commie socialist bent on taking away our god-given right to burn stuff.

  6. One themometer won't do by mdsolar · · Score: 4, Informative

    You need a global array. Last December-January-February together were the seventh warmest on record globally. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist...

    1. Re:One themometer won't do by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      Key phrase is "on record". Global records are even more pathetic than our domestic records. Even if we had perfect records since the invention of the calibrated thermometer, it would still represent a blink of the eye in geologic time. And even if it is getting warmer or cooler, there is still the problem of causality. Given that it has warmed and cooled many times over geologic time, and we frankly don't know why either happened, it is a little disingenuous to ascribe changes to exclusively human causes.

    2. Re:One themometer won't do by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      The best estimate is that 110% of warming since the 1950's is owing to human activity. http://www.realclimate.org/ind... There are a lot of people out there trying to confuse you on that point. Don't be a chump.

    3. Re:One themometer won't do by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      110% of warming? Seriously? I hope this was an attempt at humor.

    4. Re:One themometer won't do by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      No just math.

  7. until a critical event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    until something insane happens not much will happen. something that is a clear and present danger to all humanity.
    hurricane sandy was pretty bad for nyc but in a global perspective, it meant nothing, it did nothing.
    we need an event like submerging the entire state of florida. killing off a millions of people from heat or storms.
    but i am not even sure that's enough...

    we probably need to kill off billions, that should be enough to touch everyone, and let us know that this shit is doing down for real and it'll be you that's next.

    but until then, fuck it. party like it's 1999.

  8. Peer reviewed by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    I guess because it is discussing a peer reviewed study in an unbiased manner.

  9. 1 month away.. by drewsup · · Score: 0

    Even the scientist that support AGW say a 15 year hiatus would cause a re think of their models supporting AGW, gues what... We are now one month away from a full 15 years of no significant rise in temps.
    Tues they better get back to the drawing boards...

    1. Re:1 month away.. by bunratty · · Score: 1

      And yet the melting of ice and sea level rise continue to accelerate as predicted by AGW.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    2. Re:1 month away.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the sea level has risen so much, wouldnt it stand to reason that someone like myself who has lived on the coast for 25+ years would see high tide lines higher than ever rather than in the same spot they've been for 25+ years?

    3. Re:1 month away.. by drewsup · · Score: 1

      the arctic ice has actually increased, the antarctic has abated, but again, within geologic norms.

  10. I love this debate by chubs · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I love the global warming debate. You are either an environmentalist nut-job or an anti-science global warming denier. We spend almost no time analyzing reports, comparing data and questioning our preconceived notions (a.k.a. rational thought), and instead dig around the internet for articles supporting our side of the argument and name-calling anyone who has any doubts about the methods or conclusions from our pet article.
    In any other scientific debate, you never hear about "Higgs Boson Deniers" or "String Theory Fanatics" or "Standard Model dinosaurs". As a matter of fact, this is pretty much the only scientific area where EVERY commentator acts as though they are experts. Whenever I see a /. article where global warming is the subject, I can rest assured that at least 95% of the comments will either be by or in response to trolls. It's like I'm on reddit or something.

    1. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I love the global warming debate. You are either an environmentalist nut-job or an anti-science global warming denier. We spend almost no time analyzing reports, comparing data and questioning our preconceived notions (a.k.a. rational thought)

      Questioning makes you a denier, stop that.

    2. Re:I love this debate by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Climatologists spend lots of time assessing data. The problem with AGW is that while the overwhelming majority of researchers are in general accord, the results of their science would cost a lot of money, therefore the public debate ceases to be about data or theory, and simply about emotional appeals and pseudo-scientific trickery.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    3. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In any other scientific debate, you never hear about "Higgs Boson Deniers" or "String Theory Fanatics" or "Standard Model dinosaurs".

      I want some of what you're smoking.

    4. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, there are ant-evolution evangelicals and flat earthers and other people that deny other types of scientific findings. Almost any scientific finding will have its detractors. Among paleontologists you have a debate over why the dinosaurs died off. Many have staked their careers on proving it wasn't a giant asteroid.

    5. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's just like the evolution debate. On one hand you have science. On the other, you have rationalization of a predetermined conclusion.

      The truth is that multiple independent lines of scientific evidence tell us that we are indeed causing global warming.

    6. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think a bit part of the problem is the "A" in "AGW". Does it really matter whether the warming is anthropogenic or not? Won't the effects of warming be the same, regardless of the cause? I mean, it's not like we don't have ample historical data showing large swings in global temperatures over the course of just a few years, including to averages much, much higher than what we have now. Indeed, the geological record offers ample evidence that the most common (not "normal", because there really isn't a "normal") state of the planet's climate is quite a LOT hotter than what it's been in recorded history -- the human time period has been during a short warm period in an era of ice ages. Sure, the current warming is most likely caused by our actions, but regardless of that it could also be entirely "natural" and happen just the same, with the same effects.

      I think people focus on the question of anthropogenesis because there's an implicit assumption that if it's not anthropogenic, then there's nothing we can/should be doing about it. The "can" alternative is at least possibly-logical, though it assumes powerlessness that I refuse to accept. The "should" alternative is just ridiculous.

      The fact is that even if we manage to reduce our CO2 emissions to zero, we will face serious climate change eventually, and we have little idea when that might be. Perhaps even right now. Therefore, what we should be doing is learning to understand and modify the Earth's climate. The only way we can have "sustainability" is if we take control.

      An obvious corollary of this view is that we should not be looking merely to emissions reduction as a way to fix the problem. First, it may not fix the problem, either because it's already too late, or because our emissions aren't the cause, or aren't the major part of the cause (note that I don't believe that, but it's possible). Second, even if it does fix this problem, at some point we'll face warming which we can't stop that way. So, in addition to trying to limit emissions, we should also be seriously researching other approaches to cooling the planet, perhaps by raising the albedo, or reducing incoming solar radiation (which we may have done a few decades ago by pumping a lot of particulates into the atmosphere, along with the CO2). For that matter, we should also be looking into methods of warming the planet. Should the local warm period end and return us to the ice ages, we may well appreciate the outcome of our recent accidental experiment in global warming via CO2 production.

      Knowledge is the key. We need to understand how the system works, and how to manipulate it, because we DO need to be able to manipulate it. Or adapt to it, but manipulation will be more cost-effective in many cases, I think.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    7. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not an expert - I try to find out what percentage of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere every year is attributed to human activity and I can't get a definite answer.

      Best I can figure is somewhere between .25% and 4%, depending on where you get your data. BUT, I am also told, that small percent increase is going to topple the apple cart, environmentally.

      So, you tell me, is the natural balance of emissions and absorption so precariously balanced that a couple of percentage points will result in catastrophe? Inquiring minds want to know! By the way, the answer I get is never supported by anything other than computer models. I know just enough about how computer models are like graphs - you draw the graph you want then plot the points.

    8. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, for me, the resistance comes from government. While it may cost money to fix the problem, the solutions provided appear to make rich people richer. California passed cap and trade on electrical producers and told the public, they would get a check twice a year for ~$30 for their piece of the pie. What they failed to mention is that many peoples' utility bills have gone up much more than the "profit". The rest of the money went to social programs. California also told everyone to buy electric and high mileage cars. It's good for the environment and you will save on gas. Now, California wants to add a tax to these vehicles because the electrics and high mileage cars aren't paying their fair share of gas taxes. Never mind that the weight of these vehicles don't damage the roads like larger gas using vehicles. It always comes down to suck the tax payers wallet dry. Taxes are so high in California, people are doing their best to leave this shit hole of liberal ideals. So while climate science may actually be factual, you have a government with a history that uses crisis as a means for raising taxes and/or reducing freedoms. And that for me is what the fight is truly about.

    9. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've been wondering what ended the last ice age. It had to be some sort of global warming event. The only possibility is global warming caused by man. The current host of AGW scientists have eliminated ALL possibilites that don't involve mankind, so just what did the cave men do to cause the ice to melt?
      The AGW followers assure us that there is NO possible natural event that sould cause a temperature increase, including the sub, volcanoes, etc. Theredor, the only possibility left is something those cave men did. Did they burn up the last 20 years worth of fossil fuelS? Did they burn all of the ice-covered forests, which would never regenerate?
      Whatever it was that they did, it must have been spectacular!

    10. Re:I love this debate by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      There is a strong correlation between increased CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution and atmospheric CO2. This has been confirmed in enough different ways that I don't think it's useful to continue trying to claim otherwise (so can we all stop pretending that Mann's hockey stick graph is the only correlation point we have).

      Since that correlation exists, and it's clear to just about everyone in the research community that higher CO2 emissions leads to higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2, then cutting emissions should make some difference to continued growth of said concentrations. Whether it is too late or not is a matter of some debate, though most of the reports I read suggest we still could expect some moderation of global temperatures by emissions reductions, though there will be a point in the not-so-distant future where the more severe effects will happen.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    11. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      I'm not claiming it's not anthropogenic. I'm just saying it doesn't really matter whether it is or not. In either case, we need to react to the world as it is, and fix it so that it is/becomes the way we want it to be.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    12. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I find it difficult to see how someone can possibly argue for *non*-anthropogenic global warming. There are two ways you could try to do so, neither of which sounds very plausible:

      1. Argue that temperatures are rising due to the greenhouse effect, from increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere - but that this carbon dioxide is coming from non-anthropogenic sources. The trouble with this is that carbon dioxide levels stayed more-or-less static for thousands of years, then started climbing rapidly as we industrialised - i.e. when we started burning lots of things that release carbon dioxide. Is there any realistic scenario in which these two things are unlinked?

      2. Argue that increased carbon dioxide levels, which theoretically should increase temperatures through the greenhouse effect, are not doing so for some reason - but that temperatures are increasing for some other reason. This requires the combination of two unlikely coincidences: the greenhouse effect not happening, and for some unexpected mechanism to achieve the same effect instead.

      Personally, I think that people postulating non-anthropogenic global warming have no idea of the actual arguments: they just hear one group of people saying "anthropogenic global warming is real", and another group saying "there is no global warming", and assume that the truth lies somewhere between these two positions.

    13. Re:I love this debate by dywolf · · Score: 2

      yes and no. the effects would not necesarily be the same, as a big part of the problem is the rate of increase.

      the climate has changed over the past. many times it was tremendously slow process, taking place over millions of years, which is the same timescale at which evolution and adaptation work, so it worked out.

      but then you get things like the precambrian extinction event. likewise this was a global warming event. it took place over tens of thousands of years. and that was still too fast for 98% of life to adapt. it tooks millions of years for life to rebound from that event.

      we're doing it in 300 years.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    14. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well sure it matters! Since there's bloody little we can do about it, the question is, how guilty should we feel? If it's AGW, the guilt is higher, and if it's GW, we're victims. Big difference.

    15. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Any thinking a cave man did would appear spectacular compared to your line of "reasoning".

    16. Re:I love this debate by sjames · · Score: 1

      Higgs and string theory won't cost money or render the planed uninhabitable. There are some real debates around string theory, but nobody has enough skin in the game to forget their manners over it. The Dinosaur thing has seen a few big changes over the years, but the primary 'controversy' seems to be if they exist or if God put the fossils there as a big April fools joke.

    17. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      Well sure it matters! Since there's bloody little we can do about it, the question is, how guilty should we feel? If it's AGW, the guilt is higher, and if it's GW, we're victims. Big difference.

      Why does how we feel matter? It doesn't affect the sea level.

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      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    18. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      hello, science is not a fucking debate.

    19. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      the climate has changed over the past. many times it was tremendously slow process, taking place over millions of years, which is the same timescale at which evolution and adaptation work, so it worked out.

      And many times -- just during the last few million years for which we have ice core records -- it has happened in decades. There are examples of >7C changes (which is huge... like moving Nordic climate to the Mediterranean or vice versa) in less than 30 years.

      In any case, my primary point is that debating the cause is really only useful insofar as it provides us with solutions... and the anthropogenic assumption does point toward one potential solution, but we don't know if that solution is adequate at this point, even if the warming is 100% anthropogenic (which we don't know), and shouldn't get fixated on it as the only approach.

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    20. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it's the unprecedented rate of change which is the crucial difference.

    21. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      My point is that the cause is not really relevant. Yes, I'm likewise fairly certain that the warming is anthropogenic. But I'm similarly certain that a similar change could happen without our involvement, because the ice core record documents bigger, faster changes with no obvious cause (not even CO2 level changes, which we can see clearly in ice cores!). And what's almost certain is that changes -- both fast and slow -- abound in the historical record, and will eventually occur again. So we need to learn how to manage the climate, and should start now.

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    22. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      it's the unprecedented rate of change which is the crucial difference.

      It's not unprecedented. There are ice core records showing changes that are both larger and faster. > 7C swings in less than 30 years.

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    23. Re:I love this debate by mpe · · Score: 1

      So, you tell me, is the natural balance of emissions and absorption so precariously balanced that a couple of percentage points will result in catastrophe? Inquiring minds want to know!

      If this is the case how can the Earth's climate remained stable for 4+ billion years? Alternativly what can have happened recently, but pre "industrial revolution" to have made it unstable now?

      By the way, the answer I get is never supported by anything other than computer models. I know just enough about how computer models are like graphs - you draw the graph you want then plot the points.

      Just about all of the climate computer "models" would be better described as "fiction".

    24. Re:I love this debate by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I'm not an expert - I try to find out what percentage of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere every year is attributed to human activity and I can't get a definite answer.

      It's the wrong question. We know from the Carbon Cycle that large amounts of carbon cycle between the various reservoirs of carbon (atmosphere, ocean, land and biosphere) yearly but that doesn't change the total amount of carbon in the carbon cycle. The carbon cycle was pretty balanced for thousands of years with the CO2 level in the atmosphere remaining around 280 ppm. Human activity takes carbon that's been out of the active carbon cycle for millions of years and adds it back in. That is reflected in the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, the lowering pH of the oceans and some increased plant growth. Since 1830 atmospheric CO2 has risen from about 280 ppm to around 400 ppm now, a 40% increase. Nearly all of that increase is attributable to human emissions.

      The basic relationship between change in temperature and change in CO2 levels was stated by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It says the change in temperature = Ln * (current CO2 level/starting CO2 level) * a constant. That doesn't require a computer to calculate.

    25. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think people focus on the question of anthropogenesis because there's an implicit assumption that if it's not anthropogenic, then there's nothing we can/should be doing about it. The "can" alternative is at least possibly-logical, though it assumes powerlessness that I refuse to accept. The "should" alternative is just ridiculous.

      Oh, but I think we should do something about it even if it wasn't anthropogenic. If we had means to stop any natural disasters, like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, asteroid impacts, ... we would certainly do so (as we do with wildfires) and here we are in the middle of the mother of all natural disasters brewing, and some of us just choose to bury their heads in sand and believe that if pretend that they don't see it, it will just go away.

      The humanity has a plan, and that plan is to cut down our contribution to the problem in hope that we soften the impact when it comes. We just need to commit to it and put it on the roll.

    26. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      Oh, but I think we should do something about it even if it wasn't anthropogenic.

      Yes, that was my point.

      The humanity has a plan, and that plan is to cut down our contribution to the problem in hope that we soften the impact when it comes.

      I think we need a better plan than that. We shouldn't just reduce our contribution, we should figure out how to engineer cooling (and warming; in case the planet starts slipping toward an ice age).

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    27. Re:I love this debate by dywolf · · Score: 1

      i keep saying precambrian when i mean permian. bah.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    28. Re:I love this debate by dywolf · · Score: 1

      are there examples of >7C global changes?
      a global change of 7C occuring in a decade would wipe out most life on earth.
      the permian extinction that i mentioned was an 8C rise, and not over mere decades.
      global changes of only a degree mask a tremendous amount of variance and extremes of weather.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    29. Re:I love this debate by swillden · · Score: 1

      Yes. Google "ice core rapid climate change". There have been changes nearly that large during the Holocene, IIRC.

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    30. Re:I love this debate by dywolf · · Score: 1

      hmm. that looks more like a localized event, like the medieval warm period. you'd need a matching ice core (or other record) from elsewhere on the globe to corroborate it and make it global

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    31. Re:I love this debate by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Global warming will not render the planet uninhabitable. We'd survive if the ice caps melted and the weather returned to dinosaur-era conditions. That doesn't mean it would be a good idea to encourage these conditions.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    32. Re:I love this debate by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      If we react to the world as it is, it appears we need to reduce the CO2 in the air, or at least limit its increase. That would suggest moving away from burning fossil fuels.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    33. Re:I love this debate by chubs · · Score: 1

      You misread that. I wasn't claiming the existence of dinosaurs was a debate. I was referring to those who embrace the Standard Model of physics as dinosaurs (an example of useless name calling).

    34. Re:I love this debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of the few sensible statements on the Global warming debate I have seen. Thank you.

      I am one of the "Deniers" but only because i have also looked at the historical record and over the eons we have had massive fluxuations in temperatures and in climate make up.

      When ever a politician wants to talk science and makes blanket statements in order to get some sort of political agenda passed - it makes we very very wary of actual "science" behind the claims.

  11. Well? by fredrated · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The story below says "US Rust Belt Manufacturing Rebounds Via Fracking Boom" and asks 'do the associated environmental risks of new "tight oil" extraction techniques outweigh the benefits to these depressed economic regions?'

    Well, do they?

    1. Re:Well? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The story below says "US Rust Belt Manufacturing Rebounds Via Fracking Boom" and asks 'do the associated environmental risks of new "tight oil" extraction techniques outweigh the benefits to these depressed economic regions?'

      Well, do they?

      Not sure. Did you try posting your comment in there?

    2. Re:Well? by swillden · · Score: 1

      The story below says "US Rust Belt Manufacturing Rebounds Via Fracking Boom" and asks 'do the associated environmental risks of new "tight oil" extraction techniques outweigh the benefits to these depressed economic regions?'

      Well, do they?

      I think that's fundamentally unknowable.

      The reason is that knowing the answer depends on two pieces of knowledge, one which is hard to estimate and the other which is impossible to know. The hard-to-estimate one is the actual environmental impact of fracking, which may be anything from negligible to catastrophic. The impossible-to-know one is the ability of future technology to mitigate that environmental impact.

      In the short term, the answer is clear, though: Yes. If your time horizon is just a few years, the economic benefits of fracking do outweigh the environmental impact.

      IMO, the rational approach, therefore, is to proceed with fracking, but to do it cautiously, investing a portion of the economic benefit into research into the environmental impacts and mitigation strategies.

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    3. Re:Well? by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Well, do they?

      Only if we can frack with sequestered CO2 instead of precious H2O...

  12. March for climate by mdsolar · · Score: 1, Informative

    There will be a march for the climate to put pressure on the UN to take action on September 21 in NYC. http://peoplesclimate.org/marc...

  13. Apparently I've become spoiled - Actual link below by geekoid · · Score: 1
    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  14. Testable Prediction by QuantumPion · · Score: 0

    On the global scale, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 396.0 parts per million in 2013. The atmospheric increase of CO2 from 2012 to 2013 was 2.9 parts per million, which is the largest annual increase for the period 1984-2013. Concentrations of CO2 are subject to seasonal and regional fluctuations. At the current rate of increase, the global annual average CO2 concentration is set to cross the symbolic 400 parts per million threshold in 2015 or 2016.

    Oh good, they actually have a testable quantifiable prediction that CO2 will continue to increase at the same rate and exceed 400 ppm in the next two years. If their prediction proves to be correct that will lend credibility to their models. But if CO2 does not do this, will they admit they don't know what exactly is going on with the environment? Or will they still claim that the less than expected raise in CO2 is also proof of climate change due to some previously undisclosed factor?

    1. Re:Testable Prediction by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      CO2 emissions are probably the easiest part of AGW modeling.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:Testable Prediction by dywolf · · Score: 3, Informative

      Your quote is reference the Annual Average...which it is set to do, and shows absolutely NO SIGNS of not crossing that milestone.
      Your post is one born of ignorance and an attempt to spread confusion.

      Technically it was passed by in 2013...several times. But the monthly averages still came out slightly below 400ppm. April 2014 however was the first time the Monthly Average PPM level crossed 400ppm. And it's been theres since.

      In fact I really dont see the point of your post. The trendline is quite clear, and is continually up. It has yet to FAIL to increase.
      It couldnt be more irrelegent of ignorant if you had said "oh good, they have a testable predictiona bout gravity. but will they still claim gravity is real if hte apple fails to fall to the ground?"

      http://www.climatecentral.org/...
      http://www.climatecentral.org/...
      https://www.climate.gov/news-f...
      http://www.scientificamerican....

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
  15. Leo Tolstoy by spud_boy_65986534 · · Score: 1

    "I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth, if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~Leo Tolstoy

  16. Nearly 3 parts in a million by Mass+Overkiller · · Score: 1

    So, according to the World Meteorological Organization, the entire earths atmosphere increased in CO2 and Methane at a rate of ... 3 parts per million. Really.. How was this measured? The WMO states that they have measured the atmosphere so accurately that they can account for 2.9 parts per million increase? 2.9 parts in a million.. They somehow measured this, in the entire planet's atmosphere? Really.. There is no chance that this increase is simply a mathematical rounding error? Statistical error? Someone added 2.9 parts to a total of a million parts that were being counted? This all implies that humans are causing this increase. The article doesn't say why 2.9 parts per million increase (if that is even realistic) is a problem. 396 parts per million is just a number. Nothing happens when it gets to 400 parts per million. Or 4000 parts per million. Unless that change is overnight (which I presume the article was not suggesting), then the problem is not a scientific one - its a political one. I still find it hard to believe they published this under the guise of global climate change and their evidence is.. 2.9 parts per million. Over the entire planet.

    1. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you must be experiencing something closer to about 70,000 parts per million carbon dioxide in your local atmosphere. Be careful, if the local concentration gets up to around 150,000 parts per million you won't be conscious to perceive the difference between your "political problem" and your "scientific" one.

    2. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Robear · · Score: 5, Informative

      Here's how it's measured at the Mauna Kea site. Accuracy is to within 0.2ppm, 1 standard deviation is 0.26ppm.
      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html

      So yeah, we know it's accurate because it's using the same techniques and technology used all over the world to measure gas fractions per mole of various gasses in many different applications. If the CO2 measurements for climate were wrong as you suspect - "rounding errors" or the like - then people would be dying left and right due to anesthesiology mismeasurements; chemical manufacturing would have far higher error rates; and other very visible and common manufacturing processes would be far less reliable than they are today. This is solid measurement technology.

      Human civilization developed at about 275ppm of CO2. It took us from the dawn of civilization (first use of fire, you could argue, so over 400,000 years) to the early 19th century to budge the needle beyond small natural variations from 275ppm. From the 1820's to 1910, just under a century, we gained 25ppm. From 1910 to 1950 - 40 years - we gained 40ppm more. From 1950 to today, we've gained another 50ppm and are currently increasing at about 2ppm per year. 400,000 years - tiny amounts of change. 190 years - 33% increase; that's got to register, since CO2 drives the atmospheric temperature as the greenhouse gas with the most effect.

      The problem is that we are now entering a climate regime which humanity has never been in before. Our entire civilization has been built on stable climates, and that's true of the past, too. We have many, many records of civilization which did poorly and even failed when their climate changed by an amount that is a small fraction of what we're doing now. Civilization will not collapse tomorrow, or in a decade, or in a century. It will simply become more expensive, dangerous, uncomfortable, impoverished and unstable than it is today. If you're comfortable with that as the future to leave to your grandchildren, well, more power to you. I hope you build your bunker deep.

      Ignoring a problem that will lead to massive changes in the world is perhaps the least conservative action possible. The fact that we are uncertain as to the total effects of these changes down the line, but we know we're messing with the entire planet, means that inaction is even *more* dangerous, because of the possible consequences. So the claim that we need to wait before doing anything is a radical, not conservative, approach.

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    3. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Rockoon · · Score: 0

      So yeah, we know it's accurate because it's using the same techniques and technology used all over the world

      At no point did you show or even claim that they actually did the measurement all over the world. We know that CO2 concentrations are not evenly distributed, ergo the argument of the person you replied to has not been been challenged by you. Perhaps you would like to try again and pay attention to what the person you are so quickly responding to is actually saying.

      Our entire civilization has been built on stable climates

      lol.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    4. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Robear · · Score: 2

      You showed no evidence that the global CO2 measurements are inaccurate. But luckily, we have satellites that back up the ground collections, and agree with them. Their coverage is global.

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty.htm

      Bear in mind that while there are local variations of CO2, the atmosphere is quite well-mixed, so you don't *need* a sensor every 100 square km or whatever to determine what the average CO2 levels are. Differences settle out regionally and globally, and that's backed up by the fact that the satellites agree with the ground station average quite well.

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    5. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Robear · · Score: 2

      Further, the cite you gave actually reiterates what I'm claiming.

      "The growth rates of CO2 concentration have increased in recent years. The distribution of CO2 growth rates differs regionally due to the variation of source or sink. And the spatial variation of CO2 concentration is small compared to that of fluxes. Because the atmosphere is an excellent filter of spatially and temporally varying surface fluxes, integrating short-term fluctuations while retaining the large-scale signal. High growth rate in East Asia has been associated with high growth rate of fossil fuel. And high growth rate in South America is due to decreased biosphere uptake of grass/shrub region in Brazil and increased wildfire release."

      "...retaining the large scale signal." That is, the global signal of increasing CO2 is not knocked down by regional or local variations.

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    6. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lets accept the accuracy of this data... as well as the temperature data over the last 20 years that shows no casual relation between CO2 and Global Temperatures.
      It comes to... so what. CO2 is obviously to week of a greenhouse gas in our global environment s to have a measurable impact.
      So there is ample data to show that the CO2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly in the last two decades. There is also ample data to show that global temperatures have not.

    7. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Our entire civilization has been built on stable climates

      lol.

      Your laughter just shows how little you understand the truth in that statement.

    8. Re:Nearly 3 parts in a million by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes and you are ignoring the fact that CO2 has gone up 8-10% over the last 15-18 years and yet temperatures have not. If CO2 controls the climate then it should. It hasn't so your theory is wrong.

      We were not at 275 ppm for the last 400k years. During the last ice age we got within 8-10% of not having this discussion. At 150 ppm plant life above the oceans ceases. Followed shortly thereafter by all the animals. We were around 170 ppm at the low point.

      During the Permian there was a 30 million year period with low CO2 and recently we are still in a 20 million year period of low CO2. In between there was 250 million years with CO2 1000-2000 ppm and plants / animals did great. Lots more foliage to feed lots more animals. Both quantity and diversity were much greater than our little inter-glacial.

      CO2 is not a pollutant and is not a problem. Wasting resources on fighting global warming when we are heading into another cold period (please not an ice age) is stupid.

  17. SLASHDOT, GAWKER, HUFF PO - 1% PROPAGANDA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hilarious.

    Is this the Huffington Post? Is this Gawker?

    Why not just run daily stories about evil white racists and white Christians opposed to queers who sodomize each other in the asshole receiving marriage licenses?

    Did any of these basement dwelling nerds walk outside this summer when it was in the 60s for weeks in the fucking deep south?

    GET OFF THE COMPUTER AND LIVE LIFE

  18. Global Temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Figures released Tuesday by a United Nations advisory body reveal that 2013 saw new recorded highs for both carbon dioxide and methane, as well as the largest year-over-year rise in carbon dioxide since 1984, reflecting continuing worldwide emissions from human sources but also the possibility that natural sinks (oceans and vegetation) are near their capacity for absorbing the excess.

    And even with all that additional CO2, global temperatures have not gone up. Tells me the models are wrong, wrong, wrong.

    1. Re:Global Temps by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      There is no hiatus. It is cherry picking of data, literally cutting of centuries of statistical analysis at 20 years for the purposes of making some sort of rhetorical point. Among the last 20 years are years that are among the hottest on record.

      Do you understand anything about statistics? Or are you so cowardly and infantile that you just latch on to any Koch-inspired meme that makes you feel better?

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:Global Temps by jpellino · · Score: 1

      No, tells me you didn't see the recent data and analysis on Atlantic deep-ocean heat sinks.

      --
      "Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
    3. Re:Global Temps by Robear · · Score: 1

      Where's the hiatus in the warming of the oceans? There's a lot more short term variation in atmospheric warming, but given that the oceans have *not* seen a hiatus, it's clear that that is simply a temporary cooling signal added to the mix. This is what should concern you, because when that cooling signal fades out, the warming in the atmosphere will be back, and possibly at a faster rate than before. In effect, we're getting temporary relief - don't think it's a permanent thing, because if we were really cooling, the oceans would show it unequivocally.

      http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    4. Re:Global Temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is not cherry picking. You start at today's date and go back in time until the line is no longer flat. There is a "pause" or "peak" and even the IPCC acknowledges it. As to understanding statistics here is how you can calculate the "pause/peak" for yourself:

      Take the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months.

      Now repeat that with the other 4 datasets and you get between 15-18 years of no warming at all.

    5. Re:Global Temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That tells me you didn't ask for the data. We only measure the top 700 meters so how do we know the heat is going down to 1500?

      Oh you may also want to ask them how the heat goes from the top to the bottom without going through the middle? The part we do measure (0-700) shows no heat going down so how exactly does heat bypass the middle?

      Data please. Show me the data.

  19. Re:Bunch of BS from the Useless Nations by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

    Humans need water. If I plunge your head into a tank of water and hold it there for fifteen minutes, you ought to be super healthy, right?

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  20. Re:Solving AGW is so easy, a caveman could do it by dywolf · · Score: 1

    your post shows you have zero familiarity with how the research funding process actually works.
    for starters: they dont get to pocket the grant money as income.
    their livelihood is in no way dependent on research funding.

    and it has nothing to do with power. you reflect the typical Civics 101 fail of more tea baggers who dont even understand what a government is.

    we could end GW today, just by stopping all fossil fuel use. we have the tech today right to do it, be it nuclear or solar or wind. we oculd do it. its just a matter of political will, or the lack thereof (fueled by massive lobbying dollars from the fossil fuel industry). the monies the FFI spends on this makes the little that GW researchers recieve look a pittance. so dont come in here with that same tired trope of the rich scientist. its manure. nothing but.

    --
    The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
  21. Climate Change!!! by miltonw · · Score: 1

    Remove science, add emotion - GO!

  22. Ocean acidification is scary by MyNicknameSucks · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Higher acidity [CO2 dissolved in water forms an acid] in seawater is known to disrupt the life cycles of many marine species — from reef-building corals to shellfish beloved by humans — by interfering with the creatures’ ability to use sea-borne calcium to build their shells.

    This bit should be scaring the pants off us. Not because we'll suddenly not be feasting on oysters, but because of zooplankton that form delicate calcium-based shells. If those critters go bye-bye, we will likely see the collapse of more ocean fisheries as food sources dry up.

    And, in something of a double-whammy, coastal regions in the tropics are often protected by reefs from the ravages of some tropical storms. If those reefs slow down their growth (that replaces damaged reefs structures), or start dissolving, we're going to be have a tidal wave (bad pun!) of starving refugees.

    You don't need to believe in global warming to see those two issues becoming problems. You need enough empathy to see this as being a problem, even if it's not in your own backyard.

    If you do believe in global warming, it's a crapshoot as to whether or not the oceans will rise high enough to wipe out their homes before acidification lays a licking on marine ecosystems.

    1. Re:Ocean acidification is scary by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      Which marine ecosystem are you talking about?

      The one in which there are, indeed hundreds of hyper specialized species which have developed to take advantage and exploit a benign, optimal climate? Of course, their rise meant that they easily out-competed more generalized species, driving them to the otherwise marginal ecosystems.

      Or the other one, the one with horseshoe crabs and jellyfish that are flourishing (again) because the fluctuating conditions favor the generalist over the specialist?

      I'm not sure what to think on coral; on the one hand we are told how desperately fragile corals are to everything. It's clear that certain coral are stressed and dying. On the other hand, warmer seas would imply that their range would be much broader. Not to mention the fact that coral are some of the oldest life forms on the planet, having durably survived far more nasty conditions, both in extremes, and rate of change including multiple extinction events.

      --
      -Styopa
    2. Re:Ocean acidification is scary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      mother nature is a cold hearted bitch who doesn't give a shit about what you or I do or do not believe.

    3. Re:Ocean acidification is scary by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The way we're going, we'll have absolutely no shortage of jellyfish. I prefer real fish.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  23. Ha! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Everything is in keeping with the models.

    When your model says everything is attributable to Global Warming, you really can't lose, can you?

    1. Re:Ha! by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Also didn't click the link.

      Good job.

      Thing gets predicted.

      Thing happens.

      Mindless Douchebag says: "Betcha didn't see that coming"

      All you can do is roll your eyes.

    2. Re:Ha! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The link is nothing but a rambling admission that they have no fucking clue what's going on and provides vague excuses for the pause, all the while pretending that , "oh, ya, we knew that".

      The issue of the pause is not nitpicking. It's a fundamental failure of the models and evidence of their complete lack of understand of how things work. You would say, "well, they adjust, accommodate". But what else are they missing? How can we trust what the models are saying when they have been so wrong?

      Worst of all, you morons want the world to base public policy on these P.O.S. models.

      You are nothing but a Face Painting Homer who can't back down from your position because it would make you look like even more of an asshat than you do now.

  24. Something to add by MyNicknameSucks · · Score: 3, Informative

    The reefs in the Caribbean have been dying for decades, but not from acidification.

    About a quarter of the way down on this page, http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/201... , you can see what happens as the stony corals die off. The branches of the corals break off and no longer supply refuge to small fish from predators. And there's less ... well ... hard stuff in the way to slow down waves. It's kind of depressing to snorkel or dive in Florida since you can see all the old coral skeletons lying on the ocean floor, slowly being covered with silt. While, of the three images, the one on the right looks the most vibrant, most of what you're seeing is soft coral (no calcium carbonate skeleton) and sponges that are, you know, spongy. Soft corals provide little or no protection to juvenile or feeder fish.

  25. But he DOES know better than you do! Duh. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    You CAN review the data, it IS public, and so are the tools to analyze the data.
    There's a thriving skeptic group actively doing just that, so you can still feel you're among your own kind when you look into it.

    Of course, there's always the danger that you'll be convinced, like Nobel laureate Muller, after looking at all that publicly available data.

    So be careful. You might end up knowing better than you do now, if you bother.

  26. Re:But he DOES know better than you do! Duh. by GameboyRMH · · Score: 3, Informative

    There's a thriving skeptic group actively doing just that, so you can still feel you're among your own kind when you look into it.

    A "skeptic" group already did this. The other "skeptics" didn't like the outcome:

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Envir...

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  27. As usual, much ado about nothing by bradley13 · · Score: 0

    This is an excellent example of where a microscopic amount of critical thinking would go a long way.

    CO2 dissolves in water, yes. Atmospheric levels used to be immensely higher, yes. Ocean life very similar to today's survived just fine, yes.

    Hence: "should be scaring the pants off us", no.

    It is this lack of critical thinking, this "oh noes, the world is ending" that I find totally irritating about the AGW folks. Is the earth warmer that it was 100 years ago? Sure it is, so what? It's a minor increase, climate is dominated by negative feedback loops (blindingly obvious). No need to panic, and anyway, warmer is historically better...

    --
    Enjoy life! This is not a dress rehearsal.
    1. Re:As usual, much ado about nothing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      CO2 levels were probably higher (rugosid corals had a different composition of their skeletons) ...

      But I'm going to hazard a guess that the changes in ocean pH were gradual (over millennia) rather than decades. That doesn't give critters much time to evolve and adapt to new environments.

    2. Re:As usual, much ado about nothing by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      A little more critical thinking would be in order. It's not the absolute change which is something life can adapt to but the rate of change which can cause a lot of devastation before life has the time to adapt.

  28. Actually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Actually, physics is full of nut jobs and deniers. If you are backing String Theory you are automatically a fanatic. As to the Standard Model, it is most certainly a dinosaur-like model. And every single physicist backing one of the "big three" theories -- relativity, QM & string theory -- is a denier, to one degree or another.

    If you wanted to make your point with an analogy, you should have chosen chemistry.

  29. Null hypothesis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yup, we do have a null hypothesis.

    The 20th century temperature rise is well within the range of natural fluctuations, and is not unusual, so no anthropogenic cause is necessary to explain it.

    It is up to the warmists to prove their case against that null hypothesis.

    CO2 has risen monotonically since the Keeling curve was measured and plotted, but temperatures have remained stable for 10-20 years depending on which temperature record you look at. Santner said a flat trend of 17 years is enough to disprove the models, and the models are looking pretty bad now.

    The best temp record for the US is the USCRN (google that), a evenly spaced group of climate stations in the US (so no funky "adjustments needed) iin pristine sites (no airport tarmacs heating things up) with tripple redundant state of the art Pt temp sensors.

    And what does it show for the last ten years- NO warming at all. This is the best least corrupted record we have.

  30. Wait....um...ya...it's Joe vs CO2 by PortHaven · · Score: 0

    Okay, so we cut back CO2 production, snazzy, snazzy. And yet now we're having the highest ever.

    OR

    Could it be that we're having one of the highest levels of volcanic and tectonic activity? I mean how many volcanoes are ablowing? Yellowstone aglowing? Who's aknowing? Perhaps we'll reduce CO2 only to go BOOM!

    TROLOL

    1. Re:Wait....um...ya...it's Joe vs CO2 by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      It's not likely that volcanic or tectonic activity has much of anything to do with it. Even the largest volcanic eruption of the past 100 years, Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 emitted only 42 megatonnes of CO2, only 0.2% of the 23 gigatonnes emitted by human activities that year.

    2. Re:Wait....um...ya...it's Joe vs CO2 by niftymitch · · Score: 1

      It's not likely that volcanic or tectonic activity has much of anything to do with it. Even the largest volcanic eruption of the past 100 years, Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 emitted only 42 megatonnes of CO2, only 0.2% of the 23 gigatonnes emitted by human activities that year.

      And Mt Pinatubo was most famous for SO2 not CO2 emissions.

      --
      Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
    3. Re:Wait....um...ya...it's Joe vs CO2 by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Of course. They cause a 2 or 3 year dip in temperatures. I was just responding to the GP's implication that volcanoes are a significant factor in the current increase in CO2.

  31. sea level rise NOT accelerating by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/global-mean-sea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed

    Sea level has been rising since the little ice age and the big ice ages.

    But, there is NO acceleration of the rate of rise of about 3mm/year.
    So, a slow rise that has been happening for hundreds or thousands of years...humans have been adapting for a long time-look at the Dutch.

    Models are not data, and there is no evidence of a catastrophic problem here which would necessitate destroying our energy infrastructure.

  32. Make a difference--kill your yard. by Etherwalk · · Score: 1

    So let's do something useful.

    Anyone with a grass yard should be planting a small forest of actual trees. Carbon sinks. Much better for the environment, also because there is much less energy spent maintaining them.

    1. Re:Make a difference--kill your yard. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Would only be usefull if you cut the trees regulary and bury the wood underground.
      Otherwise they release by rotting the exact same amount of CO2 they captured at first.
      But I prefer trees over mere gras anyway, or grass below fruit trees :)

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    2. Re:Make a difference--kill your yard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      One word: "Spirulina".

      Also I've stopped recycling paper and cardboard. That belongs buried in a landfill where it has some hope of long-term sequestration. Note that this strategy falls down if the paper is from old-growth.

  33. Oh wow by Tyrannicsupremacy · · Score: 1

    It's almost as though all the carbon cutting being done in the US and Europe is being rendered completely irrelevant so long as we let china keep fucking everything up.

    --
    http://i.cubeupload.com/T6cyLu.png
  34. Exhaling More by Frankie70 · · Score: 0

    I think people are exhaling more than they did 20 years back.

    1. Re:Exhaling More by Ogi_UnixNut · · Score: 1

      Nah, people are exhaling pretty much as much as they did 20 years ago. Just that there is quite a few more of them now :)

  35. REALLY??? by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    Well, this was the coldest summer in my memory. I don't think I've ever experienced 50 degree weather in July/August (and I used to live further north).

    Oh, this is just localized. Except, wow...I've got friends over in Europe experiencing the same. Okay, perhaps it is just the northern hemisphere of Earth. I haven't checked with my Aussie and S. American friends as to whether this year was warmer or colder for them.

    But if this is in fact the highest CO2, and one of the warmest global temperature years. Something is very lacking on the observable real anectdotal evidence. And yes, folks dismiss anecdotal evidence. But if anecdotal evidence is in fact in conflict with your theory. You should pause and reconsider. If you say, penguins can't fly, and suddenly see a penguin fly.....it's time to pause and re-analyze and assess whether you've discovered a new type of penguin or whether your premise is not globally valid. Perhaps one must revise to "most penguins" don't fly.

    Now granted, we have not discovered any flying penguins. But we've found a lot of equivalent questionables in regards to Global Warming claims. Enough that I think there needs to be some honest re-evaluation.

    1. Re:REALLY??? by Robear · · Score: 1

      If you live in the US Midwest, or much of Europe, yes, it's been a colder summer than usual. But that does not mean that the *global* average, which shows an increase, is wrong. Both are accurate observations.

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201407.gif

      --
      French - The lingua franca of Europe!
    2. Re:REALLY??? by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Translation: I don't know the difference between localized and global temperatures, and just post hoc cherry picking to deny global observations.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    3. Re:REALLY??? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I've got anecdotes too. Here in the pacific northwest it's been a hot, dry summer. IIRC twice as many days of 90 F or above than normal.

    4. Re:REALLY??? by PortHaven · · Score: 1

      Right, but it's been a couple years of record breaking cold around much of the world.

    5. Re:REALLY??? by PortHaven · · Score: 1

      No, translation....

      You're telling me it's hotter than ever, based on your assignment of modern temperature collecting methods

  36. In UN We Trust? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not.

  37. "The polar bears will be fine" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Freeman Dyson

  38. taxbagger? by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    Tax complainers are largely a bunch of selfish, ignorant, complaining jerks with character disorders. (some or all of those.)

    I've had a millionaire bitch to me how taxes were "killing him" as he picked up the tab for lunch and just after how he was talking about the PAIN of owning 5 (FIVE) houses, one in Hawaii. I pay more taxes than he ever did and that % I pay is felt by me more than the lower % is felt by him! If you are wondering, educating these people is impossible; the behavior is a symptom of psychological problems so fixing an issue of ignorance or whatever just manifests as something else until they get their broken minds fixed. Sadly, my experience is that them having money makes them more mentally healthy and better than normal people; so they are far less likely to ever seek help or take advice. (If you luck your way into money, then you are less likely to think that way; it's a matter of perspective. Entitled superiority vs lucky joe )

    Environmental taxes are not a significant problem. Way more tax money is spent on other things we don't need. In the USA, we don't have hardly any environmental taxes. I'm going to assume the poster is thinking of regulations as opposed to taxes but not address that BS to keep the post short.

    The LACK of sane environmental policy is indirectly costing me FAR more than the taxes-- in MONEY. Non-monetary things matter too and should be a factor over just numbers. I WANT more environmental taxes!!

    My insurance rates are HIGHER and despite shifting companies, the rate of increase is higher than decades ago; business owning friends have had it much worse.

    The energy commodity trading market is a sham (Enron like) and adds MORE to the price of gas than gas taxes do; under the guise of stabilizing the market when at least in modern times it has not done so.

    You are not being taxed "the hell out of" if you live in the USA. Look at all the other 1st world nations (which might not be fair since the USA arguably is no longer 1st world but in transition backwards with the majority of factors already there... not that all such metrics are equal which is why I'm not concluding it myself at this time.)

  39. Simple by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    In any other scientific debate, you never hear about "Higgs Boson Deniers" or "String Theory Fanatics" or "Standard Model dinosaurs". As a matter of fact, this is pretty much the only scientific area where EVERY commentator acts as though they are experts.

    Simple. The Kochs and their whores can't make money off any of that.

    1. Re:Simple by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Oh look someone brought up "the kochs" I guess it's a-okay when liberals do it to make money, like al gore, and george soros. Oh and we can't forget all that crony capitalism off expensive green energy.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
  40. until a critical event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Kill off a billion people and CO2 levels will most likely drop. At least once the bodies stop burning.

  41. Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 2

    That is a huge mistake people keep making. Tomorrow has weather. Predicting the weather and predicting the climate are too very different things.

    Predicting the climate is akin to predicting when you will need certain repairs on your car. Climatologists cannot say exactly when the median temperature will increase by 1 K, but they can say it will happen and predict about when it will happen. The engineers at BMW cannot predict exactly when your water pump will fail, but they can tell you that eventually it will fail and that it probably will fail around 150,000 km with about 10% accuracy.

    Predicting the weather is akin to predicting whether your water pump will fail tomorrow. It's much harder to do. Maybe it sounds funny, but it might take months to fail. Maybe it sounds fine but develops a sudden unexpected leak.

    It amazes me that with all the education we have, people are still confusing climate and weather.

    1. Re:Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      Climate is the integral of weather. If you do not understand the function, you have no hope of solving for the integral of that function.

    2. Re:Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by Richard+Dick+Head · · Score: 1

      Predicting the weather and predicting the climate are too very different things.

      Whoosh. I know you're educated about that specific point, but my point with my flawed comparison is that half-baked logically-flawed ideas will become serious obstacles when you present an idea that suggests you might have to do anything resembling austerity. Like cutting meat out of your diet, for example, which if you suggest it most people will give you a pretty forceful and vehement rejection outright. Facts are out of scope at that point.

    3. Re:Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by HornWumpus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Go and study some simpler non-linear chaotic systems then get back to us.

      You cannot run a simulation of weather and integrate it to get a forecast of climate. You have to run many montecarlo simulations of weather to get a statistical picture of the forecast climate. Thinking you can predict details will always bite you in the ass.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    4. Re:Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Newtonian mechanics are the integral of quantum mechanics, so we will never understand how to build a rocket to the moon or a 100 story skyscraper until we fully understand quantum gravity. . . clearly.

    5. Re:Tomorrow doesn't have a climate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Clearly. I'm glad you got the point, wisenheimer.

  42. Yup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And antarctic ice is a a record level fro the satellite era record.
    Arctic ice is making a nice comeback the past year or two, now within the +/- 2 sigma band.

    And in between lake Superior had some ice into June and July.

    The sun is in a quiet mode-similar to other cooling periods and the ocean oscillations have switched to their cooler phase.

    So, we are probably in for a few decades of cooling, which will be much worse for humans than a few degrees of warming.

  43. I'm pro-global warming by Prune · · Score: 1

    I live in Canada, and considering the number of articles in recent years which have listed the impacts of global warming on the country, it's looking like a huge win. Even if only some of the permafrost melts, this is a huge increase in arable land and will allow as much as a doubling of agricultural output. Access to additional fresh water also increases significantly, which is notable given how much hoopla is made about water as an ever-more scarce resource. Increasing population density further north, and making the north actually productive. Better access to natural resources in the north, including mining and gas/oil extraction in the arctic. Levying fees on ships going eventually year round through the northwest passage. The boon global warming, if real, will bring to this surpasses by an order of magnitude anything its politicians could bring about. So yes, please, bring it on!

    --
    "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    1. Re:I'm pro-global warming by dywolf · · Score: 1

      so much stupid.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    2. Re:I'm pro-global warming by Prune · · Score: 1

      So like a typical ideologue, when you fail to summon logical arguments to support your view, you turn in your desperation to your last resort: abusive language. I hope you realize that you're just revealing that for you, this is about emotional investment, not rationality.

      --
      "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    3. Re:I'm pro-global warming by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I'm suspicious of new arable land just because it gets warmer. It takes more than temperature to make good growing conditions.

      Also, there's going to be a whole lot of people who aren't as lucky as the Canadians.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    4. Re:I'm pro-global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Levying fees on ships going eventually year round through the northwest passage.

      The mosquitoes will get bigger than the ships. Nobody will dare go to Canada.

  44. I love this debate by tendrousbeastie · · Score: 1

    I agree with you entirely, rational debate about the facts and their support is entirely subsumed by the factional rivalry. But, there is a great and similar split in the followers of String Theory - those that assume it to be the only and obvious explanation of the world vs. those that don't even consider it science. The only difference is that because ST doesn't touch upon public policy there is a larger third community - those who don't care.

    I think that fundamentally the difficulty with the AGM debate is that it is very hard (i.e. impossible) to separate the policy issues from the science issues.

  45. People question climate alarmism around the world by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Australia just kicked their warmist politicians out of office and repealed their carbon taxes.

    Canada abandoned and stepped out of the Kyoto treaty.

    People are waking up to the scam all over.

  46. Dynamic CO2 Absorption by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

    Historically, about half of the pollution from human sources has been absorbed by the oceans and by terrestrial plants

    Interesting. That means that as human emissions have increased, so have the CO2 sinks....so back when we were emitting 2x, the environment magically knew to absorb 1x, and now that we're emitting 20x, it absorbs 10x.

    Here's the question - if the CO2 capacity of our sinks is upwards of 10x today, why did it only absorb 1x when we emitted less?

    http://theresilientearth.com/?...

    Here's an alternative - CO2 levels are driven by something else besides our emissions, and regardless if we emit more, or emit less, the "set point" will be adapted to, either by more absorption, or less absorption.

    1. Re:Dynamic CO2 Absorption by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      From the IPPC WG1 (which deals with the physical science behind the global warming) SPM report (Summary for Policymakers): "The ocean has absorbed
      about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see Figure SPM.4)"
      So the oceans compensate, to a large extend, for the emissions in CO2. But the acidification is not without risk and the ocean is likely not to do that for ever. Hence the importance of this new measurement. It could be an indication that the compensation effect of the oceans is coming at an end. That would mean that the CO2 levels are about the rise much more quickly the coming years.

      A.k.a. very bad news (but you won't care about it I guess).

    2. Re:Dynamic CO2 Absorption by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      Historically, about half of the pollution from human sources has been absorbed by the oceans and by terrestrial plants

      Interesting. That means that as human emissions have increased, so have the CO2 sinks....so back when we were emitting 2x, the environment magically knew to absorb 1x, and now that we're emitting 20x, it absorbs 10x.

      Here's the question - if the CO2 capacity of our sinks is upwards of 10x today, why did it only absorb 1x when we emitted less?

      Here's a hint: "Historically" means "not anymore".

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
    3. Re:Dynamic CO2 Absorption by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Except if you look at the data, it absorbed about half of human CO2 emissions *throughout* history, including recent history:

      http://theresilientearth.com/?...

      So the question still stands - why did CO2 sinks in our environment increase their absorption at the same time we increased our emissions?

      It's like you're pouring 10 gallons per second into a tub that has a drain that removes 5 gallons per second, and then when you move to 20 gallons per second, the drain magically increases in size to remove 10 gallons per second.

      Something is moderating the size of that drain, and it's not the water coming in...

    4. Re:Dynamic CO2 Absorption by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      Except if you look at the data, it absorbed about half of human CO2 emissions *throughout* history, including recent history:

      /quote> And again "recent history".

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  47. 3mm/year by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    25 years at 3mm/year, is about 3 inches, would you notice that with the variations in tides and waves?

  48. But is the increase meaningful? by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    Long term records show the levels have increased and decreased before. What does it mean? Is it bad? Or is it just a distraction. There is a very real issue of toxic pollution that gets ignored in the hype over CO2.

    1. Re:But is the increase meaningful? by mpe · · Score: 1

      There is a very real issue of toxic pollution that gets ignored in the hype over CO2.

      A lot of environmental issues tend to get ignored here. Possibly including those which actually have a far greater influence on weather and climate systems.

    2. Re:But is the increase meaningful? by jcupitt65 · · Score: 2

      Here's a terrific animation from NOAA putting the current CO2 levels in the context of the last million years or so. It takes a few minutes to watch, but see it to the end.

      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

      tldr: current CO2 levels are about 40% higher than the maximum levels seen in the last ten ice age cycles.

  49. and what would your excuse be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    if they had those gigabytes of data? that you want to see the actual printed paper logs in order to check the handwriting?

    Face it, we are on to your tricks. It's not as if you are all that clever anyway.

  50. How about just harvesting the lumber by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Capturing the CO2 in a nice table makes more sense to me than burying it.

  51. Re:But he DOES know better than you do! Duh. by Rakarra · · Score: 1

    Of course, there's always the danger that you'll be convinced, like Nobel laureate Muller, after looking at all that publicly available data.

    So be careful. You might end up knowing better than you do now, if you bother.

    That's pretty usual. It takes a rare individual who can be convinced even by plain facts that he is wrong. Usually he can weasel his way out, like moving the goalposts, or the weird ways in the data is attacked in this very thread. There will always be an excuse for why the other side is always the incorrect one, and as I get older I've come to believe that it's the majority of people who are like this, not just hoax-believers and conspiracy theorists.

  52. Re:But he DOES know better than you do! Duh. by Rakarra · · Score: 1

    Of course, there's always the danger that you'll be convinced, like Nobel laureate Muller, after looking at all that publicly available data.

    So be careful. You might end up knowing better than you do now, if you bother.

    That's pretty unusual.

    Fixed that for me. :-/

  53. Oceans are basic, not acidic by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

    Let's be very clear here:

    1) oceans are *basic* not acidic. Reducing pH of oceans at this point is *neutralization*, not acidification;

    2) ocean pH varies orders of magnitude more than any proposed amount of neutralization:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

    "It turns out that far from being a stable pH, spots all over the world are constantly changing. One spot in the ocean varied by an astonishing 1.4 pH units regularly. All our human emissions are projected by models to change the world’s oceans by about 0.3 pH units over the next 90 years, and that’s referred to as “catastrophic”, yet we now know that fish and some calcifying critters adapt naturally to changes far larger than that every year, sometimes in just a month, and in extreme cases, in just a day."

    It could be an indication that the compensation effect of the oceans is coming at an end.

    How can you possibly assert that as an explanation? Let's assume, for the moment, that the missing sink is the oceans (rather than say, increased plant life, or some other part of the carbon cycle we don't understand) - the moderator of how much CO2 they could absorb every year must be the amount of surface area of the oceans, yet without changing the surface area of the oceans, you're asserting that they magically figured out how to absorb *more* CO2 in later years?

    Please, *why* would the oceans in 1980 absorb x CO2 from the atmosphere, but then in 2014, they absorb Y > 10x?

    Possible suggestion: Absorption of oceans is driven by ocean temperature, and from say, 1980 - 2014, increasing ocean temps absorbed more CO2 from the atmosphere. So then what regulates ocean temperature? Cloud albedo and solar activity primarily, with maybe some minuscule contribution from underwater vulcanism. Sadly, we've got no model linking cloud albedo to CO2, or solar activity to CO2, much less human CO2.

    In any case, the fact that natural CO2 absorption has varied so greatly over the years indicates some other moderator than human CO2 emissions on final global CO2 levels.

  54. And still NO WARMING by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A question for everyone who thinks that CO2 controls the climate. How long with rising CO2 and flat or falling temperatures before you admit your theory is wrong? 20 years? 30? Never?

    All 5 of the major datasets (RSS, UAH, HadCRUT4, GISS, NCDC) show no warming for between 14 and almost 18 years. In that time CO2 has risen 8-10%.

    Here are 2 predictions. First I predict that CO2 will continue to increase because China and other countries don't care about CO2. They don't even care about real pollutants much less CO2. Second I predict it will get colder over the next 20-30 years. Why?

    Dr Libby in the 1970s said that "looking forward it will stay cold until the mid 80s (it did), then it will warm by about 1/4 degree F until the end of the century (it did), then it gets cold". When asked how cold she was predicting a 1-2 degree F drop with an outside chance of a 3-4 degree drop. Pray it is the former.

    Dr Easterbrook in 2001 said the PDO was done it's positive warm cycle and that we were in for 25-30 years of cold weather. How cold? We have his good, bad and ugly predictions based on previous negative cold phases of the PDO. Pray it is the first one.

    Dr Abdusamatov in 2006 said we are at the top of the temperature sine wave and it will be 200 years of cold weather. Pray he is wrong.

    Why do I join with them and side with their predictions? While past performance is not a guarantee of future correctness it is a lot better record than the IPCC and their dozens of models of which none have been accurate. They are all based on CO2 controlling the climate and the other 3 are all cyclical natural cycles. I'll go with those who have a good track record at predicting future climate. Dr Libby is the most impressive as her prediction is 30+ years going and still accurate.

  55. Acidification of oceans... by niftymitch · · Score: 1

    Historically, about half of the pollution from human sources has been absorbed by the oceans and by terrestrial plants,

    The inability to absorb CO2 may have flipped and acidification may be
    generating CO2 from oolitic sands and coral.

    If acidification has flipped the oceans from a net sink for CO2 to a source
    of CO2 we have issues with acceleration and underlying models in the
    science.

    Sadly the global warming side may prove to be right for many wrong reasons
    and the nonbelievers may be wrong for other reasons.

    This is a case where two wrongs does not make a right----.

    I find myself at odds in this because I see bad science that puts
    me on one side of the issues and then I see observations that make
    it clear that as bad as the science is they are getting essentially
    the right answer. In this case it may only be necessary to get the
    sign correct.

    Any that study statistics and the camel will understand.

    --
    Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
  56. Re:Solving AGW is so easy, a caveman could do it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    your post shows you have zero familiarity with how the research funding process actually works.
    for starters: they dont get to pocket the grant money as income.
    their livelihood is in no way dependent on research funding.

    Actually, that is how medical research works in the USA. The grant goes in part to pay the salary of the researcher (have to pay of those med school loans, after all). Another part gets stolen, err, I meant to say "taxed" by the university where the research is taking place, after which it is laundered, err, I meant to say "moved into the general budget" (and there is no further traceability by snoopy and obnoxious members of the public that might have the unreasonable expectation of knowing how "their" money is being spent).

    Whatever is left over gets spent on research.

    Researchers who bring in big grants, and are likely to bring in more such grants, get something called "tenure". This insures the university a continual flow of funds to pay for things like a nice office for the President.

    Lots of useful medical research does get done, so despite it's problems, the system actually works. That's not to say it's necessarily a well thought out system, or that it couldn't be improved. But there is certainly nothing wrong with having government fund scientific research.

    I have no personal experience with the non-medical type of research, so I couldn't say whether or how it is different. Still, it seems highly UNLIKELY that the livelihood of the typical researcher is in "no way" dependent on funding.

    Don't let your passion for the side you have chosen in this debate lead you into sloppy and easily avoidable errors: you'll simply convince the other side you're an incompetent thinker.

  57. Re: But he DOES know better than you do! Duh. by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    That's just the selection over time. Everybody started out skeptical about AGW, most were convinced decades ago. The few who were still skeptics recently and eventually announced their change of mind were more stubborn.

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  58. Global change? No. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We have had >7C change in LIMITED AREAS (e.g. the poles) today, in LESS THAN 30 YEARS.

    And we have even more to go.

  59. So you mean "still warming"??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then hince there's nothing in the iPCC reports to claim thatthere would be significant acceleration in a few decades, how the hell can this be a problem for the climate models?

    And since that still means there's warming, as much as before, the how the hell is this ANYTHING other than "AGW continues"???

  60. Re:Solving AGW is so easy, a caveman could do it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is why governments should not be funding any science research, and why no credible scientist takes government money.

    This is Slashdot. It's news for nerds, not news for idiots. Government funding for science research is responsible for all kinds of important developments, which then get used in commercial products. Stuff like improvements to agriculture, allowing more people to have food, or improvements to medicine, allowing more people to live healthy, happy lives. All kinds of basic science research was and continues to be funded by governments, and most Nobel prizes in science result from research funded in part, often in whole, by government. Few commercial entities are willing to fund this kind of long term research.

    Albert Einstein worked for the US government on a number of occasions. Presumably in your deluded mind he was not a credible scientist?

  61. UN order by kattisch · · Score: 1

    Do you really believe any study the UN puts out? Not like it's a conflict of interest or anything. Anyone ever hear of Agenda 21 and its world-wide implementation by the UN. Then tell me how anything credible can come out of the UN.