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X-Class Solar Flare Coming Friday
First time accepted submitter kit_triforce writes Satellites have just detected a powerful X1.6-class solar flare. The source was active sunspot AR2158, which is directly facing Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. Ionizing radiation from the flare could cause HF radio blackouts and other communications disturbances, especially on the day-lit side of Earth. In the next few hours, when coronagraph data from SOHO and STEREO become available, we will see if a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerges from the blast site. If so, the cloud would likely be aimed directly at Earth and could reach our planet in 2 to 3 days.
Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
Times like this, I sympathize with the sysadmin of the spaceweather.com website. I hope she/he had nothing planned for this evening.....
I'd have likely died during the attempt at birth, and taken my mother with me. I'm kind of enamored of modern technology, for some reason.
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
We'd only know about an hour in advance whether or not the CME's energy pulse would line up catastrophically with our own magnetic poles.
So even if we know it's coming, catastrophic is only one possibility.
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.
Ernest Hemingway
Of course, if you read the article, it says that the effects will be at worst serious radio interference, some high voltage alarms on sensitive equipment that has monitors, and some transformer damage if the storm lasts long enough, but mainly in the higher latitudes. Not exactly world ending.
I've decided to Diversify my Holdings. I've divided my cash between my left and right pockets, instead of all in one.
I think XKCD class would be even worse! Our communication equipment would fail in hilarious ways.
HAM bands in the VHF range will be opening up! I am going to rig for 10m and 15 and see what happens.
I might a QSO from Europe with a little luck.
Never answer an anonymous letter. - Yogi Berra
We have no defense against something like this because securing the grid would slightly impact profits
We do have a defense: circuit breakers. They are installed in a lot of places on the electrical grid, as there are many other kinds of faults that require their use, and not having them would have already impacted the bottom line. The question is how well they are maintained. But in situations like the solar storm in 1989, it worked, and once the storm was gone, they reset the breakers essentially and the power comes back.
Unless there's that lone scientist who isn't being listened to by everyone else, as he's got the evidence that the sensors are wrong, and that it's going to be XKCD class.
Waiting for an amusing sig.
Flares are bursts of energy, so they travel at the speed of light -- there's no real early warning for 'em, as by the time you see it, it's here. (there might be a slight warning before you hit the peak of the flare, but we're talking seconds, not days).
The CME is what's coming on Friday ... Coronal *Mass* Ejection ... ie, it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.
You might also get some SEP (solar energetic particles) before the main sort of 'cloud' from the CME arrives -- those can be worse for the people in space, as they arrive minutes to hours after the flare, and they'll just go through things in space (eg, spacecraft, space stations, etc.).
disclaimer : I'm not a solar physicist, but I'm a programmer/sysadmin supporting the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC.
Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
Unless there's that lone scientist who isn't being listened to by everyone else, as he's got the evidence that the sensors are wrong, and ...
he launches his only son away from the doomed planet of Krypton, to be raised by aliens on a far distant earth.
If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
Based on your UID, you were around when it was steam and gaslight, right?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
The Carrington event was a X27 to x45
so a 1.6 is tiny ( for a big one)
a 2 is 10 times greater that a 1 in power
"I don't pitch OpenSUSE Linux to my friends, i let Microsoft do it for me
If you want a picture / movie that's actually based on this event's data ... use iSWA.
Select the 'ISEP' tab, and then choose one that mentions 'CME WSA' and looks like a swirl. (there are three of 'em ... pressure, velocity and density ... although I think something went wrong in their pipeline, as the pressure and density ones are *really* glitching out ... I don't know if that's one they generate every 15 mins, though)
You'll notice that even though the center of the cloud is expected to go ahead of the earth, they're predicting it'll be wide enough that we'll still get hit by it.
(disclaimer : I work for the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC)
Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
So, to put it in layman's terms, the Sun farted at us.
Table-ized A.I.
The outside.
"Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
It's a X1, not a X20 flare. I do not think we really have much to worry about.
I'm surprised Slashdot is even covering anything less than an X5.
I contacted the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory a few minutes ago. Here's what I got from them:
Please be advised: the data is for South Africa, which is closer to the equator. Places closer to the poles will experience slightly stronger conditions.
Two CME's are heading this way. Precise time of impact not yet known. They should hit 12-13 September (South African Standard Time). Conditions should clear by Saturday afternoon SAST.
CME1:
Glancing blow. No need to worry about it, unless you have a satellite in space.
CME2:
Direct hit on earth.
GPS satellites are expected to be affected.
Communications equipment will probably be affected.
Transmission lines are not expected to be affected.
Electronics are not expected to be affected.
There's a recent Skeptic's Guide to the Universe podcast where Phil Plait explained exactly what impact a big CME would have on the grid, and I think he said that there are some very large transformers that would be destroyed and would take 5 to 10 years to replace due to there being nowhere tooled up to replace them. I think he said this would mean large chunks of the grid without power for that timespan.
(1.21 gigawatts) / (88 miles per hour) = 30 757 874 newtons
We all die from uncontrollable laughter.
I think he said that there are some very large transformers that would be destroyed and would take 5 to 10 years to replace due to there being nowhere tooled up to replace them.
This has been repeated a lot, but I think is a bit over-inflated as a risk. Nothing against Phil Plait, as a quite a few other knowledgeable people have also repeated it.
The problem with large transformers connected to large power grids or long transmission lines, is that a geomagnetic storm can induce a current that is effectively DC compared to the 50/60 Hz of the power distribution network. Transformer cores can only handle so much magnetic field, and hence only so much current, before they begin to saturate, where each additional bit of current creates less and less magnetic field within the core, and hence the core resists increasing current less. In other words, as it saturates, the impedance goes down, and the transformer will pull a lot more current just like switching from a large valued resistor to a small valued one pulls more current. Too much current, and it overheats and can damage (potentially catastrophically if windings short out).
There are two ways to catch this. The first is to watch for DC currents going into the transformer, and either trip a breaker or reduce usage of that line if the DC current goes too far out of spec. A lot of power equipment won't see DC currents being designed for the AC grid. But these days, more and more places do check for DC current because of problems from such storms. If the equipment isn't monitored for DC current though, the increasing AC current from the transformer saturating can still trip vanilla AC circuit breakers (with a few caveats).
So it is not like a storm just will blow out all transformers connected to the power grid. It comes down to whether or not the protection equipment is installed and works as designed. If the protection equipment interrupt the circuit, or if the transformer was so marginal that the protection equipment doesn't kick in soon enough, then it could be damaged. There certainly have been cases of protection equipment programmed with the wrong limits before, for example. But in the end, it is just extra stress on the system, not some massive failure blowing out everything without hope.