X-Class Solar Flare Coming Friday

First time accepted submitter kit_triforce writes Satellites have just detected a powerful X1.6-class solar flare. The source was active sunspot AR2158, which is directly facing Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. Ionizing radiation from the flare could cause HF radio blackouts and other communications disturbances, especially on the day-lit side of Earth. In the next few hours, when coronagraph data from SOHO and STEREO become available, we will see if a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerges from the blast site. If so, the cloud would likely be aimed directly at Earth and could reach our planet in 2 to 3 days.

Comments

Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

This is from the mighty US power. It targets ISIL. They will all die. Die! DIE!

Re:Made in America

[Jeremiah Cornelius]

Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?

Re:Made in America

[roc97007]

Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?

So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

No no no no no: this is the Prophet reaching out from the sun to smite the Great Satan & stuff.

Re:Made in America

[smittyoneeach]

I'd have likely died during the attempt at birth, and taken my mother with me. I'm kind of enamored of modern technology, for some reason.

Re:Made in America

[gstoddart]

You just want to bust out your steampunk gear, don't you? ;-)

Re:Made in America

[LynnwoodRooster]

Based on your UID, you were around when it was steam and gaslight, right?

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

you're posting on a fucking internet forum you fucking turd of a being

Re:Made in America

[Valgar]

And here I thought the whole gamergate thing was the new gaslighting.

Re:Made in America

[davester666]

Oh, I am set for natural gas. I've got crates of canned beans stored in my basement.

Re: Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

Plenty of coal, though.

Re:Made in America

[mysidia]

It's a X1, not a X20 flare. I do not think we really have much to worry about.

I'm surprised Slashdot is even covering anything less than an X5.

Re:Made in America

[srsmith]

More like sticks and stones.

Re:Made in America

[pla]

So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?

Pretty well, thanks! I have four cords cut split and seasoned (In a typical winter I'll go through 2-3), and another two I could tap in a pinch if we have a really bad winter.

I couldn't keep the fridge going (good thing winter provides its own cold), but I have enough solar/battery capacity to keep the house lit up with efficient LEDs indefinitely, and to run an energy-efficient tablet on the off chance we have some tattered remains of a communication infrastructure to connect to (or just to while away the hours reading the entirety of Project Gutenberg). And perfect time of year, crop-wise, I'll spend the next few months canning anyway.

You?

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

Given his user name, yes...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Cornelius

Re:Made in America

[Dishevel]

You can do that stuff anytime you want.

Or would you rather just tell other people how you think they should be living.

Re:Made in America

[ConceptJunkie]

Speak for yourself. I for one am very happy with my microwave Hot Pockets and laser pointers.

Re:Made in America

[FatdogHaiku]

Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?

Frack Off!
or would that be, Frack On?
Well one way or another someone will get Fracked, and there will be gas...

Re:Made in America

[lgw]

I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.

Re: Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

Maybe the emf boost with make ghost hunting more fun

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

This one involves a CME directly headed toward Earth. It won't be world ending, it won't likely be damaging in any way, but it might have a decent chance of looking pretty. This is an improvement over announcing such things here after they happen, at least for those casually interested, but not motivated enough to sign up for a dedicated aurora news feed or notification service.

Re:Made in America

[pla]

I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.

Bad idea - Any "well prepared" neighbor probably has more guns, and more familiarity with using them, than you do. And while it only takes one lucky shot to take him out by surprise, you can pretty much bet your life (literally) that the Missus and little Timmy also know the right end of the barrel from the wrong.

(Not trying to sound like a "tough guy" here - I don't count as any sort of crackpot survivalist, just a rural geek; but I do know a few, and would do my best to avoid them in a doomsday scenario - Made of meat, dontchaknow?)

Re:Made in America

[Wycliffe]

So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?

Practically noone stores natural gas. There is LNG and CNG but it's not really very common especially not for households.
You're probably thinking of propane. Many rural people not connected to natural gas have a propane tank in their yards.

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.

I suspect your "well-prepared neighbor" would have already loaded his gun with a bullet that has your name on it. Just sayin'.

Re:Made in America

[lgw]

Depends on where you live. When I lived in Cali, I knew people who were hoarding supplies but were strongly anti-gun. OTOH, for the guys with actual bunkers, well, they aren't called "bunkers" for nothing.

Re:Made in America

[roc97007]

Solar, short wave radio, lots of firewood, wood stove, all gas appliances on the off chance that the natural gas infrastructure remains intact, about a year's worth of canned goods, and a seed cache. But I don't consider putting society back to steam and gaslight a good thing. Just a remote possibility that should be prepared for.

Re:Made in America

[roc97007]

I'm somewhat of a prepper, I have a year's worth of food, medical supplies, suitable arms. I have a friend who has only stockpiled arms and ammo. He says he has neighbors who stockpile food but are vehemently anti-gun, and he figures he'll just take what he needs from them. I don't happen to agree with this philosophy, but I'm aware that it exists.

I'm reminded of one of the interviews during Occupy Wall Street, where some young lady said that we should all be forced to go back to an agrarian society.

The reporter pointed out "but millions would die".

Her response was "Well, people die."

Well, ok then.

My question would have been "So... let's say you're one of the people who are lucky enough to belong to a successful agrarian society, and you have a good supply of crops. What are you going to do when the first horde of armed, half-starved marauders finds your settlement?"

Re:Made in America

[roc97007]

That was kind of my point. "Gaslight" still assumes some kind of working energy infrastructure.

Re: Made in America

[kyjellyfish]

Looking for guidance on jailbreaking my iPad in order to convert it to run on Canola oil

Re:Made in America

[Anonymous Coward]

" I've got crates of canned beans stored in my basement."

Soooo we can expect a steady stream of coronal ejections from your area as well!

Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Sowelu]

Because that would be a pretty bad scenario for us...

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

Bad enough as it is. If there is a CME, we could be looking at cascading power failures and riots that will make Ferguson MO look like Mr Rogers Neighborhood. We have no defense against something like this because securing the grid would slightly impact profits. This could be a very good time to own stock in companies like GE or Siemens.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

All your stock is worthless now.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Karl Cocknozzle]

Because that would be a pretty bad scenario for us...

Sweet Jag, though.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Jarik C-Bol]

Of course, if you read the article, it says that the effects will be at worst serious radio interference, some high voltage alarms on sensitive equipment that has monitors, and some transformer damage if the storm lasts long enough, but mainly in the higher latitudes. Not exactly world ending.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think XKCD class would be even worse! Our communication equipment would fail in hilarious ways.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

We have no defense against something like this because securing the grid would slightly impact profits

We do have a defense: circuit breakers. They are installed in a lot of places on the electrical grid, as there are many other kinds of faults that require their use, and not having them would have already impacted the bottom line. The question is how well they are maintained. But in situations like the solar storm in 1989, it worked, and once the storm was gone, they reset the breakers essentially and the power comes back.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[MrDoh!]

Unless there's that lone scientist who isn't being listened to by everyone else, as he's got the evidence that the sensors are wrong, and that it's going to be XKCD class.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

That sounds like a what if question... What if an XKCD-class flare hits the Earth?

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[JohnVanVliet]

a XKCD flare would need a warning like this
-- Don't Panic --
http://www.craftster.org/pictu...

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[I'm New Around Here]

Unless there's that lone scientist who isn't being listened to by everyone else, as he's got the evidence that the sensors are wrong, and ...

he launches his only son away from the doomed planet of Krypton, to be raised by aliens on a far distant earth.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[bhcompy]

[citation needed]

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[sconeu]

It's good to be bad.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[bored_engineer]

Bad news for me, though. I live at 65 degrees north latitude, and had a power outage for most of a week last winter in November. (That's fall for those of you who have more than two seasons.) There were so many trees in lines and transformers blown that they had to bring parts from outside, and crews from Anchorage. While the temperatures weren't yet brutal, (actually, they never really got there last winter) 0F in November is quite enough to freeze pipes.

Thankfully, I have a wood stove, a slightly abnormal interest in portable lights, and more portable cooking stoves than any one family can possible need. There's one cell tower close to my home, and I charged a large battery and my devices at work each day, so I didn't even lose internet access. I lost running water, but easily melted enough snow for water for drinking, washing and toilet-flushing. I also used snow to keep everything in the refrigerator cold, and moved everything in the freezer outside into a cooler. I was much happier than the neighbors 1/2 mile each way.

Unfortunately, we're facing an unseasonably warm September. I'm not sure what I'll do if power's out for several days right now. I can buy water and dry ice from town, but will the internet pipes freeze up? ;-)

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[citizenr]

Are you rich or retarded? Because those are the two groups of people that immediately link natural disasters with riots.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Ginger Unicorn]

There's a recent Skeptic's Guide to the Universe podcast where Phil Plait explained exactly what impact a big CME would have on the grid, and I think he said that there are some very large transformers that would be destroyed and would take 5 to 10 years to replace due to there being nowhere tooled up to replace them. I think he said this would mean large chunks of the grid without power for that timespan.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

Fortunately Randall Munroe has a blog for that...

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

Don't worry, we have scp-2000 incase this triggers a XK-class end of world event.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[deadweight]

Because there have never actually been any kind of riots or looting during disasters???

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[citizenr]

http://boingboing.net/2013/05/...

http://www.slate.com/articles/...

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

We all die from uncontrollable laughter.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[bill_mcgonigle]

he said that there are some very large transformers that would be destroyed and would take 5 to 10 years to replace due to there being nowhere tooled up to replace them.

So the grid isn't being expanded anywhere in the world? Seems suspect.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think he said that there are some very large transformers that would be destroyed and would take 5 to 10 years to replace due to there being nowhere tooled up to replace them.

This has been repeated a lot, but I think is a bit over-inflated as a risk. Nothing against Phil Plait, as a quite a few other knowledgeable people have also repeated it.

The problem with large transformers connected to large power grids or long transmission lines, is that a geomagnetic storm can induce a current that is effectively DC compared to the 50/60 Hz of the power distribution network. Transformer cores can only handle so much magnetic field, and hence only so much current, before they begin to saturate, where each additional bit of current creates less and less magnetic field within the core, and hence the core resists increasing current less. In other words, as it saturates, the impedance goes down, and the transformer will pull a lot more current just like switching from a large valued resistor to a small valued one pulls more current. Too much current, and it overheats and can damage (potentially catastrophically if windings short out).

There are two ways to catch this. The first is to watch for DC currents going into the transformer, and either trip a breaker or reduce usage of that line if the DC current goes too far out of spec. A lot of power equipment won't see DC currents being designed for the AC grid. But these days, more and more places do check for DC current because of problems from such storms. If the equipment isn't monitored for DC current though, the increasing AC current from the transformer saturating can still trip vanilla AC circuit breakers (with a few caveats).

So it is not like a storm just will blow out all transformers connected to the power grid. It comes down to whether or not the protection equipment is installed and works as designed. If the protection equipment interrupt the circuit, or if the transformer was so marginal that the protection equipment doesn't kick in soon enough, then it could be damaged. There certainly have been cases of protection equipment programmed with the wrong limits before, for example. But in the end, it is just extra stress on the system, not some massive failure blowing out everything without hope.

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Anonymous Coward]

transformers step up or step down power, they transform the energy entered into them

a CME has the same theoretical effect as a nuclear warhead being detonated above our atmosphere - negativity charged particles rain down and "wirelessly" overcharge circuits, causing all components to fail instantly.

if negatively charged particles were to flow through our atmosphere, cars after late 1960's will fail, airplanes will fail, power grids will fail - this is a huge security vulnerability (check out the book 'One Second After')

Read this carefully please, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
The above link should open your eyes to the true dangers of CME's with our digital age ((note that this event had a dual eruptions just like we are having right now))

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[Ginger Unicorn]

Perhaps it's being expanded in smaller chunks

Re:Just as long as it's not XK-class.

[TheTurtlesMoves]

Lucky for us, astrophysicists don't run or operate the grid. 10 years? Are you kidding me? How the hell is that credible? If that was true then it would have taken 1000 years to build the current grid. Only it didn't and most of the grid was built very very recently (Hint we use more power every year).

It's comin' right for us!

[SternisheFan]

If so, the cloud would likely be aimed directly at Earth and could reach our planet in 2 to 3 days.

"Duck!"

Re:It's comin' right for us!

[jrumney]

I've seen this movie. We need to go to a place with lots of magnetic stones. That's where the alien spacecraft come to save a select few to revive our species on another planet. The catch is, they only want children for their zoo.

Re:It's comin' right for us!

[roc97007]

"To serve mankind"...

Re: It's comin' right for us!

[Anonymous Coward]

'Soylent Green is People?'

which side of Earth?

[NotQuiteReal]

Didn't RTFA, did they mention which side of our fine planet will be facing the worst of it? How long is the stream going to pummel us?

Re:which side of Earth?

[TrollstonButterbeans]

I plan to be visiting Earth's second moon ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3... ) and am concerned about this while making travel arrangements. Please advise.

Re:which side of Earth?

[Anonymous Coward]

Dear TrollstonButterbeans (2914995),

I regret to inform you that the first paragraph of your link says:

It has been incorrectly called "Earth's second moon".[2][5] Cruithne does not orbit Earth and at times it is on the other side of the Sun.[6]

Therefore you must have failed basic reading comprehension, or you're just trolling as usual.

Sincerely,

Your friendly neighborhood AC

Re:which side of Earth?

[Anonymous Coward]

Obviously it's the side facing the sun. Duh.

Re:which side of Earth?

[gstoddart]

Well, the daylight side. :-P

They haven't yet confirmed the extent of it (as of the posting at least), and they're estimating 2-3 days ... so the answer is yes or no.

Re:which side of Earth?

[bored_engineer]

There's a very nice graphic, so you needn't strain yourself by reading. You only need to scroll, and click twice. While the picture seems to paint a very precise picture, the article states that the timing is ambiguous, so it might not land so directly in North America.

Re:which side of Earth?

[mrbester]

The outside.

Re:which side of Earth?

[TrollstonButterbeans]

The articles says it will orbit the Earth eventually.

I'm ahead of curve, as always!

spaceweather.com

[QuietLagoon]

Times like this, I sympathize with the sysadmin of the spaceweather.com website. I hope she/he had nothing planned for this evening.....

Re:spaceweather.com

[Squiddie]

I've never met a sysadmin that did have something to do most of the time. They'd probably just waste their free time doing something silly like playing tabletop games.

Re:spaceweather.com

[QuietLagoon]

... or having dinner with their family.....

Re:spaceweather.com

[zamboni1138]

I've never met a sysadmin that did have something to do most of the time. They'd probably just waste their free time doing something silly like playing tabletop games.

Or, PlanetSide 2.

As for the grandparent post, it appears to be holding up well. To everybody else, what an excellent time to check on the status of your routine system backups, disaster recovery plans and other such things that might come into play if/when this baby hits. Are you ready to lose power and/or telco?

Re:spaceweather.com

[Squiddie]

Their hug pillow and many plastic toys don't count as family.

Re:spaceweather.com

[oneiros27]

Bah ... it's mostly static content. The sites that get hammered on these sorts of things are:

• NOAA SWPC
• CCMC's iSWA
• Helioviewer
• SDO's daily movies

... etc. The various 'latest images' pages for SDO, SOHO, STEREO, etc. won't be as interesting as the imagers that are that tight in have already seen the good stuff (for that flare; there might be more from that same active region; you can track that at Solar Monitor or iSolSearch)... there *might* be something from this CME still to come in the HI1 and HI2 instruments from STEREO, though.

You might also want to check The Sun Today, which tends to have good explanations of what's happened, and they have a few movies for this event.

(disclaimer : I work at the Solar Data Analysis Center, and have worked on some of the sites that I've mentioned, and know the sysadmins for all but one of 'em)

Re:spaceweather.com

[riverat1]

I've never met a sysadmin that did have something to do most of the time. They'd probably just waste their free time doing something silly like playing tabletop games.

Not if they're doing their jobs right anyway.

Re:spaceweather.com

[Gazzonyx]

So... you just DDOSed your friends. You sure you're not a sysadmin yourself?

Re:spaceweather.com

[Anonymous Coward]

A sysadmin with something to do most of the time is incompetent and probably posting to Slashdot about how Indians took err jerbs.

Re:spaceweather.com

[oneiros27]

Yep ... but we get to argue for why we need new hardware when they can't keep up with the load. And many of 'em are intended for 'public outreach', so they justify their continued funding by how many people look at their website, not just how much data they serve, or how many people cite their systems in peer-reviewed papers. (ISWA and iSolSearch may be exceptions to this)

There have been other times that were much worse, such as when a slashdot 'editor' (I use that term loosely) decided to add a comment for people to use one of the movie maker CGIs and set the defaults higher so as to use maximum bandwidth. (and it gave you a slideshow of JPGs, so not nearly as effecient as SDO's premade quicktimes ... and it was back when our network was only on a 100Mbps uplink)

(and I'm listed as a backup sysadmin for one of the systems I linked to ... however, NASA decided I'm not a sysadmin (and kicked me off of the useful mailing lists), in an attempt to get the number of people w/ sysadmin credentials down. (as many scientists were listed as sysadmins, so they could administer their own desktops))

Re:spaceweather.com

[Anonymous Coward]

Go kill yourself, you fucking faggot.

Re:spaceweather.com

[Anonymous Coward]

I work at the Solar Data Analysis Center...

and you're sitting here posting on slashdot. nice.

Re:spaceweather.com

[sacrilicious]

You might also want to check The Sun Today

I went out and stared at it for as long as I could, but I don't feel Any More Educated.

OMG

[turkeydance]

or whatever is the current equivalent.

Solar Flare Prediction? Yay

[Anonymous Coward]

I realize it's just the title, but please...why can't we get it right? This isn't Stargate SG-1, where we have knowledge of solar flares to come, or the advanced technology to predict them. And this isn't a major news outlet, where they have no clue. So let's not PREDICT SOLAR FLARES. Let's grow up.

I think perhaps this post should be titled, "Effects of X-Class Solar Flare Coming Friday".

Make it so.

Re:Solar Flare Prediction? Yay

[Teresita]

It's more like, "Discovery, this is Houston, you have twenty minutes to get in your flare shelter and spin down HAL's hard drive. Out."

Re:Solar Flare Prediction? Yay

[rmdingler]

Actually, we'd have two or three days notice that a big one (Carrington Event) was to strike earth directly.

We'd only know about an hour in advance whether or not the CME's energy pulse would line up catastrophically with our own magnetic poles.

So even if we know it's coming, catastrophic is only one possibility.

Re:Solar Flare Prediction? Yay

[Anonymous Coward]

Potential end of civilization, and you're arguing about semantics. lol.

Can we expect memory errors?

[RITjobbie]

Whenever a user asks me how their file got corrupted, I usually mention solar flares as a _mostly_ joking answer. Soooo... should I proactively start a background verify on my SAN over the weekend?

Re:Can we expect memory errors?

[Anonymous Coward]

The nature of solar flares and their rarity makes them not a significant concern about data corruption, though at high levels equipment failure is a concern. Slight variances in the magnetic field of Earth has been hypothesized to be the cause of significant numbers of otherwise unexplained electronic equipment failure. Memory and storage being so sensitive would make them susceptible to smaller disturbances. Of course the latter can be created by the former.

The Maze Runner

[Anonymous Coward]

This sounds suspiciously similar to the plot of The Maze Runner series.

Intersection

[SuperKendall]

Bad combo - giant solar flare just as the internet itself explodes with iPhone 6 pre-orders.

You may as well just crawl in a cave that day and see what is left of society when you come out. Hint; take some Twinkies as our soon-to-be cockroach overlords love them.

Re:Intersection

[Anonymous Coward]

Roaches hate twinkies.

Re:Intersection

[dysmal]

Twinkies will be the most intelligent form of life

Re:Intersection

[Anonymous Coward]

You may as well just crawl in a cave that day...

I suggest you get a head start and go crawl into your cave right now. Better safe than sorry.

...and see what is left of society when you come out.

Hint: whatever is left of society right now is mostly what you will be facing when you cravenly come slinking out of your cave to face the world after the big one has hit.

Re:Intersection

[Anonymous Coward]

I suggest you get a head start and go crawl into your cave right now.

On second thought no thanks; I can smell you've settled in already.

Wooo!

[funwithBSD]

HAM bands in the VHF range will be opening up! I am going to rig for 10m and 15 and see what happens.

I might a QSO from Europe with a little luck.

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

Wait a day or two after its over - then you should see 15/12/10m really open up.

Re:Wooo!

[Applehu Akbar]

You'll be able to chat about oxygen tanks and mobility scooters with people all over the world!

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

most of HAM radio is like /pol/ only worse

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

Umm... VHF is not 10m and 15m.

Re:Wooo!

[funwithBSD]

For HAM, 10m is edge of VHF

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

Just be carful, I saw a documentary once about a HAM radio guy, who was also a fireman, who was able to talk to his dead dad in the past. Then a murderer came after him,

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

Dear Lord, where do you live? I'm a radio amateur myself and HAMs are some of the most relaxed and well-adjusted people I know. I'm not familiar with US chatter but in Europe there is mostly a gentleman's agreement not to talk about religion or politics on air and to try to stay away from topics that can be unduly hurtful to other listeners.

Leaving us with chatting about the weather and radio, which is sorta the intent to begin with.

Re:Wooo!

[funwithBSD]

Yep. HAM is not anonymous, so people tend to behave themselves.

20m has some issues with radio pirates spewing hate speech, but mostly it is very civil.

Re:Wooo!

[funwithBSD]

I can't tune to 666Mhz.

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

How can someone be a pirate when they arent on a boat, nor stealing shit from anyone?
In fact, someone on the radio is GIVING you something. speech.

Re:Wooo!

[funwithBSD]

How do you know they are not on a boat and unlicensed radio is often referred to as pirate radio.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

in case you are just uninformed and not being an anonymous ass.

Re:Wooo!

[Anonymous Coward]

And then you woke up.

2 or 3 days?

[koan]

Plenty of time to make a tinfoil hat.

Re:2 or 3 days?

[jimmetry]

And one for each of your family members and hard drives.

Hallmark

[Baldrson]

A Hallmark greeting card with a heart-shaped solar flare overlaying an "X" obviously meaning "love and kisses". It reads: "To Earth, with love. -- Sun"

Re:Hallmark

[Teresita]

We should be able to get a reading of the shield up or down. How can Earth be jamming unless they know we're...coming?

Re: Hallmark

[Anonymous Coward]

It's a crap!

Stupid Moon

[Anonymous Coward]

Even if it causes auroras in the lower latitudes, the Moon will still mess it up for most of the night. Oh well, it's a long shot in NorCal anyway, even though I'm well north of the Golden Gate now, and have dark skies in easy reach.

Flare

[JohnVanVliet]

Seeing as it is only a x 1.6
As far as BIG things go this is a bit tiny

so PREPARE for the WORST
1 to 2 days no electricity
BUT
expect the BEST
pretty lights in the sky

Re:Flare

[Applehu Akbar]

How much is this flare in Carringtons, anyway?

Re:Flare

[Anonymous Coward]

Only a G2 storm is predicted. There is nothing to worry about at the ground level. A G5 would be a different matter concerning blackouts and voltage spikes.

Re:Flare

[JohnVanVliet]

The Carrington event was a X27 to x45

so a 1.6 is tiny ( for a big one)

a 2 is 10 times greater that a 1 in power

Re:Flare

[Anonymous Coward]

Wikipedia says you're wrong: "Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.n (apart from X), so an X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare#Classification

Re:Flare

[Anonymous Coward]

Time to fuel the Motorhome. A full tank will run the Generator most of the weekend.

Re:Flare

[Anonymous Coward]

Yes, but the generator won't work if it is fried too.

Re:Flare

[Anonymous Coward]

Unless your generator is connected to a giant antenna, miles of looped wire, or directly to the power grid, then it can't get fried by even a large geomagnetic storm.

Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Friday

[oneiros27]

Flares are bursts of energy, so they travel at the speed of light -- there's no real early warning for 'em, as by the time you see it, it's here. (there might be a slight warning before you hit the peak of the flare, but we're talking seconds, not days).

The CME is what's coming on Friday ... Coronal *Mass* Ejection ... ie, it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.

You might also get some SEP (solar energetic particles) before the main sort of 'cloud' from the CME arrives -- those can be worse for the people in space, as they arrive minutes to hours after the flare, and they'll just go through things in space (eg, spacecraft, space stations, etc.).

disclaimer : I'm not a solar physicist, but I'm a programmer/sysadmin supporting the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC.

End of world not predicted

[Anonymous Coward]

Checking www.spaceweather.com they say:

"STORM WARNING: A pair of CMEs is heading for Earth. The two solar storm clouds were launched on Sept. 9th and 10th by strong explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158. NOAA forecasters estimate a nearly 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12th when the first of the two CMEs arrives. Auroras are in the offing, possibly visible at mid-latitudes before the weekend.."

Check again tomorrow for an update....

Flare observed at Williams College

[mdsolar]

http://www.skyandtelescope.com...

Directly facing!

[Anonymous Coward]

Or facing towards. A quick search and here is the best I could find showing propagation.

Predicted propogation ...

[oneiros27]

If you want a picture / movie that's actually based on this event's data ... use iSWA.

Select the 'ISEP' tab, and then choose one that mentions 'CME WSA' and looks like a swirl. (there are three of 'em ... pressure, velocity and density ... although I think something went wrong in their pipeline, as the pressure and density ones are *really* glitching out ... I don't know if that's one they generate every 15 mins, though)

You'll notice that even though the center of the cloud is expected to go ahead of the earth, they're predicting it'll be wide enough that we'll still get hit by it.

(disclaimer : I work for the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC)

Re:Predicted propogation ...

[mdsolar]

Nice link! looks like Spitzer Space Telescope is out of the line of fire.

What about electronics?

[Anonymous Coward]

So if I have important data on a computer, is this a type of event where I should disconnect it from a power source?

Re:What about electronics?

[Anonymous Coward]

No. You need to backup your data to stone tablets and bury them in a tunnel in granite bedrock.

Re:What about electronics?

[riT-k0MA]

I contacted the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory a few minutes ago. Here's what I got from them:
Please be advised: the data is for South Africa, which is closer to the equator. Places closer to the poles will experience slightly stronger conditions.

Two CME's are heading this way. Precise time of impact not yet known. They should hit 12-13 September (South African Standard Time). Conditions should clear by Saturday afternoon SAST.

CME1:
Glancing blow. No need to worry about it, unless you have a satellite in space.

CME2:
Direct hit on earth.
GPS satellites are expected to be affected.
Communications equipment will probably be affected.
Transmission lines are not expected to be affected.
Electronics are not expected to be affected.

Re:What about electronics?

[Anonymous Coward]

so, lets say that I am on a flight to Puerto Rico on Saturday Morning.... Should I worry?

Re:What about electronics?

[Anonymous Coward]

so, lets say that I am on a flight to Puerto Rico on Saturday Morning.... Should I worry?

Yes! You are headed to Puerto Rico, silly!

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[Tablizer]

it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.

So, to put it in layman's terms, the Sun farted at us.

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[Anonymous Coward]

In a way. If you compare the sound of a fart to the flare (hear the fart instantly) and the smell of the fart to the CME (when you smell it later)

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[Anonymous Coward]

it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.

So, to put it in layman's terms, the Sun farted at us.

With the CME it's more like a shart.

Physics

[butalearner]

Flares are bursts of energy, so they travel at the speed of light -- there's no real early warning for 'em, as by the time you see it, it's here. (there might be a slight warning before you hit the peak of the flare, but we're talking seconds, not days).

The CME is what's coming on Friday ... Coronal *Mass* Ejection ... ie, it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.

You might also get some SEP (solar energetic particles) before the main sort of 'cloud' from the CME arrives -- those can be worse for the people in space, as they arrive minutes to hours after the flare, and they'll just go through things in space (eg, spacecraft, space stations, etc.).

disclaimer : I'm not a solar physicist, but I'm a programmer/sysadmin supporting the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC.

If the flare was pretty much a direct hit, are we still going to be in the way if it takes 2-3 days for the CME particles to reach us? With a radial velocity of 30 km/s, the Earth will have moved several million kilometers away from the point where the flare struck. I know the Sun rotates in the same direction (~24 day period) as the Earth orbits (~365 day period), though, so maybe that imparts just the right amount of radial velocity.

Few spare transfomers

[mdsolar]

In the case of a bad solar storm, recovery may be delayed by the need to manufacture replacement transformers. http://www.reuters.com/article...

Is nuclear industry flex any good

[mdsolar]

The nuclear industry developed a flex plan in response to Fukushima, but some of it has extra equipment available to handle a single issue arising among one of many reactors. http://safetyfirst.nei.org/ind... In a wide scale grid failure, does that really help is several emergency generators fail a few weeks into aftermath?

Flare observed at Williams College

[Anonymous Coward]

That video is all kinds of amazing.

Aurora?

[DigitalSorceress]

My biggest interest (once we've determined taht it's not the end of life/technology as we know it) is to determine if we're in for lower latitude Aurora Borealis.

Back when I lived in MA, there was one particularly big CME maybe around 2004-ish (could be +- 1 year) and I remember how beautify the sky was... I actually gasped audibly when I first noticed it.

I'm likely way too far South to see them this time, but I do wonder if some parts of the US won't get a pretty show.

Re:Aurora?

[Anonymous Coward]

They are predicting up to possibly a G3 storm (so kp on order of 7, you can find various kp maps online where the aurora can extend to) which might be visible on the horizon in Boston. Keep an eye on aurora models, which now display a view line about where the limit of viewing would be. But that site updates irregularly through the day, as it is calculated from polar passes of weather satellites, and can be any where from half an hour to several hours between updates. It is also generating those maps from observations along a single line (the orbit of the particular satellite), so it is a bit of extrapolation too.

most the flare is going to miss us

[Obscene_CNN]

Fortunately the most the flare is going to miss us http://www.foxnews.com/science...

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[Anonymous Coward]

Considering the mass, should we say the Sun sharted on us?

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[steelfood]

In our general direction anyway.

Re:Too late for the flare -- the *CME* comes Frida

[TheTurtlesMoves]

CME also drags a big bubble of magnetic field with it. That is typically what does a lot of the "interacting".