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Snowden's Leaks Didn't Help Terrorists
HughPickens.com writes The Intercept reports that contrary to lurid claims made by U.S. officials, a new independent analysis of Edward Snowden's revelations on NSA surveillance that examined the frequency of releases and updates of encryption software by jihadi groups has found no correlation in either measure to Snowden's leaks about the NSA's surveillance techniques. According to the report "well prior to Edward Snowden, online jihadists were already aware that law enforcement and intelligence agencies were attempting to monitor them (PDF)." In fact, concerns about terrorists' use of sophisticated encryption technology predates even 9/11.
Earlier this month former NSA head Michael Hayden stated, "The changed communications practices and patterns of terrorist groups following the Snowden revelations have impacted our ability to track and monitor these groups", while Matthew Olsen of the National Counterterrorism Center would add "Following the disclosure of the stolen NSA documents, terrorists are changing how they communicate to avoid surveillance." Snowden's critics have previously accused his actions of contributing from everything from the rise of ISIS to Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. "This most recent study is the most comprehensive repudiation of these charges to date," says Murtaza Hussain. "Contrary to lurid claims to the contrary, the facts demonstrate that terrorist organizations have not benefited from the NSA revelations, nor have they substantially altered their behavior in response to them."
Earlier this month former NSA head Michael Hayden stated, "The changed communications practices and patterns of terrorist groups following the Snowden revelations have impacted our ability to track and monitor these groups", while Matthew Olsen of the National Counterterrorism Center would add "Following the disclosure of the stolen NSA documents, terrorists are changing how they communicate to avoid surveillance." Snowden's critics have previously accused his actions of contributing from everything from the rise of ISIS to Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. "This most recent study is the most comprehensive repudiation of these charges to date," says Murtaza Hussain. "Contrary to lurid claims to the contrary, the facts demonstrate that terrorist organizations have not benefited from the NSA revelations, nor have they substantially altered their behavior in response to them."
He released what was already irrelevant to make it seem like he had something interesting, but in reality, everything he's done is merely a test of the resolve and reactions of others.
Someone risked everything to reveal to the public what an asshole your government is, yet you wouldn't believe him and you call him traitor, and you make up thousands of reason explaining why your government has to be an asshole, despite that you really don't really believe it is.
American people are insane. Perhaps they deserve it.
That is one fucking mess of a summary. Is this a case of English as a third language?
It's the impact from all the foreign governments/power elite taking more counter-surveillance measures to thwart NSA spying that has them worried.
Wow what a surprise, who would have thought that terrorists where carefull with their communications?
So its clear then that the NSA was doing this for economical reasons, getting better trade agreements, giving US companies a competitive advantage and such.
Countries should investigate their trade agreements and find how much they lost due to NSA spying and demand trade agreements where the difference is calculated in favor of those other countries. So yes then Snowden did harm US interest, but unless you thing the US are gods and everyone else puny slaves, that's a good thing.
If I have a problem with US intelligence organizations(and I do), it's that their mission transformed from being pragmatic and getting useful, accurate assessments to military and law enforcement branches in the US to being paranoid about the theoretical possible threats that might exist to US interests in some way shape or form.
That paranoia fuels some of the worst excesses, like universal monitoring, or toppling democracies that might potentially ally with other nations.
Based on past behaviour, I won't believe anything NSA and their buddies say. Anything.
No matter how conclusively this is proven, these idiot officials will continue to use Snowden as their scapegoat.
"Following the disclosure of the stolen NSA documents, terrorists are changing how they communicate to avoid surveillance."
Then please stop the surveillance. It doesn't work with the terrorists since they have changed how they communicate and you only get communications from innocent citizens.
When his defense asked, "Which computer has Jon Johansen trespassed upon?" the answer was: "His own."
Here's a link to the real study, instead of some poorly written article (and hey! the summary is poorly written too!)
Essentially their methodology was to look at two open source encryption tools (pics in the study). Releases of the encryption tools didn't become more frequent after the Snowden document release.
This is obviously a narrow view, it doesn't mean Snowden had little effect, just that in one small area, Snowden had little effect. Terrorists could have stopped using Skype after the document release, and this study wouldn't have detected it. Furthermore, if Snowden did cause Russia to invade Ukraine, then this study wouldn't have detected it: it's not related to, and doesn't even pretend to look at Russia. That's where the poor summary comes in.
Now, I don't think Snowden had anything to do with Ukraine, but let's at least keep our minds straight.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
This was clearly predicted by Nostradamus:
The Easterner will leave his seat,
To pass the Apennine mountains to see Gaul:
He will transpire the sky, the waters and the snow,
And everyone will be struck with his rod."
And also:
Through an object the eye will swell very much,
Burning so much that the snow will fall:
The fields watered will come to shrink,
As the primate succumbs at Reggio.
Here, the easterner who transpires Snow is clearly Snowden. And, obviously, the NSA are the primates.
Actual report.
Key Findings
While we note several caveats to our results in the conclusion section of this report, our primary findings are as follows:
The underlying public encryption methods employed by online jihadists do not appear to have significantly changed since the emergence of Edward Snowden. Major recent technological advancements have focused primarily on expanding the use of encryption to instant messenger and mobile communications mediums.
Aside from warning of tampered copies of “Asrar al-Mujahideen” that were deliberately infected with spyware, none of the prominent jihadi logistical units have expressed any public doubt as to the continued effectiveness of encryption methods employed in their software packages that were released prior to the Snowden leaks.
The actual release of new jihadi-themed encryption software packages, like “Asrar al-Dardashah,” seems to have had a far more noticeable impact in terms of driving waves of interest in the subject of encryption among users of jihadi web forums than the publication of the Snowden NSA revelations in June 2013.
Well prior to Edward Snowden, online jihadists were already aware that law enforcement and intelligence agencies were attempting to monitor them. As a result, the Snowden revelations likely merely confirmed the suspicions of many of these actors, the more advanced of which were already making use of – and developing –secure communications software.
That's a far cry from saying "Snowden's Leaks Didn't Help Terrorists".
Note that I'm not saying "Snowden's leaks DID help terrorists" - I'm specifically saying the report does NOT support the over-the-top headline on the article and on Slashdot.
While it might be interesting to look at "releases and updates of encryption modules" by terrorists, that is hardly the sum total of what these groups do to avoid detection. In fact, it is probably the most trivial aspect of how they try to avoid detection.
This is some techno-centric report that thinks that all that matters in the world is software. It is completely irrelevant to the question at hand, which is whether these groups have changed behavior due to the leaks about how they were being tracked.
I do believe that we have repeated history (in this case, history being the McCartney era nonsense with communists) and I think that lines were crossed using the new 'communist' (aka terrorist) threat as an excuse in exactly the same way that it happened during the McCartney era. I also believe that organizations such as NSA have to exist and must perform properly regulated surveillance (properly regulated being the key) because there are a sufficient number of violent people out in the world that we do have to counter their actions. To that end, myopic reports such as looking only at the deployment of software modules as being the sum total of what matters are both naive and detrimental.
Snowden's critics have previously accused his actions of contributing from everything from the rise of ISIS to Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.
While we're at it, let's blame him for Mondays, New Coke and the Star Wars prequels and call it a day.
We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
Finally, someone one here has seen the light!
(yes, I get the sarcasm, but from the mouth of babes you know)
No matter how conclusively this is proven, these idiot officials will continue to use Snowden as their scapegoat.
Is there a conclusion? The two groups seem to be saying two very different things.
..."
..."
".. a new independent analysis of Edward Snowden's revelations on NSA surveillance that examined the frequency of releases and updates of encryption software by jihadi groups has found no correlation in either measure to Snowden's leaks about the NSA's surveillance techniques
"... changed communications practices and patterns of terrorist groups
Communications practices and patterns seems much broader than encryption software releases and updates, the encryption software being one of many possible things. Plus what about downloads and usage, wouldn't that be a better metric than a software release/update schedule? Its not clear that the independent analysis contradicts the NSA.
Also wouldn't download and usage be better metrics of user behavior than the developer release/update schedule?
I write to you today to appeal to your sense of reason.
Our country is under attack from all fronts. Russia wants to disrupt our authority, fanatical terror groups want to blow up our buildings, atheists want to corrupt our souls.
Make no mistake, we are at war. Having no other alternative to protect our great nation we have taken to attacking the enemy in preventative measures. We have struck at their core; their finances and funding, their territories, their freedoms, their countries, their friends, their families and their family's families.
You may look at Edward Snowden and consider him to be a harmless; sexually confused transgendered computer professional. This of course would be what Snowden would like you to see.
In truth he is a vicious, calculating pathological liar that will stop at nothing to destroy America (USA) as we know it.
Not only did he endanger good men in the field he endangered law-abiding US citizens everywhere.
To say that Edward Snowden does not have Weapons of Mass Destruction is to entertain a cataclysm that may indeed claim your lives and your children's chastity.
Now, let's forget about this person and his fake and silly documents. We want to get back into the real business at hand, protecting the United States of America, land of the free, home of the brave (although we have the braves on reservation now).
Thank you and god bless.
A 'singular oddity' is an event that cannot be explained and only happens when you are alone.
This careful analysis, and reporting never makes it to the headlines in the same way that the pronouncements by the likes of Michael Hayden do. How can we fix this media bias.
Terrorists were only a convenient excuse, and it's not about facts, it's about what most people are willing to believe. The surveillance machine was just happy to be humming along unchecked for a decade with the blessing of the Patriot Act until Snowden threw a wrench into the works. They're just annoyed that they can't keep playing with their toys quite like before. Oh I'm sure they're still playing, but now it's with a bit more reservation, throwing resentful looks over their shoulders at the occasional oversight committee: not the carefree spying of yore. Ah yes those were the days.
1) "Coming up tonight on the news @ 10... Just HOW MUCH did Edward Snowden's betrayal HELP the TERRORISTS?? A new study sheds some light!!"
2) repeat this ad every 15 minutes all day long
3) Run the segment for 10 seconds at the end of the broadcast, say.. 'apparently not much if at all.' assume most people miss it.
4) profit!
GP is right...if you're a router jockey, none of it was news
also, it was first reported publicly **in 2006** right here: "NSA Has Massive Database of American's Phone Calls"
Snowden only gave operational specifics like the names of the programs...he himself was either a dupe or blackmailed or self-deluded...and he's probably not a free man in Russia
He does not get credit for "starting a national conversation"....because that conversation is dependent almost purely on how how mainstream news covers the event (we can scream until we are blue in the face here on /. but to influence non-techs you need mainstream news)
We could have had a "national conversation" about the Patriot Act or in 2006 when this info was first released.
Thank you Dave Raggett
He does not get credit for "starting a national conversation"
According to who, you? Im my view, he most certainly does get credit for that because it's pretty obvious that the amount of dialog has increased substantially since his revelations.
Today's musing has led me to postulate that the causality in my universe can roughly be approximated by U(i)~1/(pi*D)*d^2
Where D is the span of my reach, and d is the distance separating the bogeyman I am blaming for every malady that befalls me. (feel free to use English or Metric units when calculating your personal universal constant of givashitz)
I have purposefully left S(i), (level of self importance) out of the numerator because it is absolutely swamped out of the equation by the backlog of data yet to be analyzed in the records warehouse known as Area obscurous, (formerly Area-51). Hopefully this new universal constant will alleviate your angst whether you believe Snowden to be a traitor or not, or even if you believe Nancy Pelosi had no time to read the health care act because she was too busy reading about what you had for breakfast this morning. Last but not least, I would like to give credit to Simon Plouffe for leading me down this rabbit hole while I sat mesmerized watching an old core2 duo calculate pi to 1 billion digits.
Snowden's critics have previously accused his actions of contributing from everything from the rise of ISIS to Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.
yep, that's the guy.
No fuck they didn't help terrorists. Everyone who isn't a government lapdog tool knew that.
You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
"a new independent analysis of Edward Snowden's revelations on NSA surveillance" Independent? Doubtful. Check the "About" for the source. They are publishers of Snowdens files. Snowden's efforts may be good or bad; depends on your perspective. But this "independent analysis" is neither.
How about "equal time" where studies show how the NSA has changed its operating procedures because it got caught with its pants down?
It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.
How 'bout Dick Cheney? There *were* news stories (rapidly not followed up) when he leaked to the reporter that Valerie Plame was CIA, that a number of covert intellegence agents she personally was running disappeared, presumed dead.
Oh, that's right, no one was ever convicted of leakiing that, just one for "obstruction of justice".
mark
So does the bill of rights/constitution and many other things. Rights and humane treatment can benefit bad people who take advantage of it. The issues is that a lack of rules and accountability is more of a DETRIMENT to honest, good people (and benefit to corrupt, bad officials, etc) than it is beneficial to terrorists.
Or, as put by H. L. Mencken
"The trouble with fighting for human freedom is that one spends most of one's time defending scoundrels. For it is against scoundrels that oppressive laws are first aimed, and oppression must be stopped at the beginning if it is to be stopped at all"
This also applies to covert/illegal surveillance, etc
The story in question, reviewed how specific encryption programs have changed or failed to change in light of snowden. That is all it can speak to. We know nothing of the relative rates of use of these tools before and after snowden. Their use may have spiked dramatically post snowden, and we would never know.
Snowden also revealed information on phone tapping and spying at the service provider level, and many, many other forms of communication. The article did not speak to the effect those had. Its entirely possible that the they have taken counter measures against these as well. Its also possible that they may have moved with the crackpots in our midst to more secure service providers that are believed to be outside the reach of US intelligence.
Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
They tried to bomb the World Trade Center in 1993. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_World_Trade_Center_bombing
Snowden released the files he had in 2013.
That's TWENTY YEARS where they would be using their old communication methods while we were hunting them. There should not be a terrorist left alive.
The PROBLEM is that we collect too much data. It is impossible to process into useful information. It is a mass of "dots" for 300,000,000 people that increases every single day.
And terrorists are so rare that they (and their communications) vanish into the mass of regular people. If you live in the USofA you are more likely to be killed by someone in your own family than by a terrorist.
I remember shortly after 911 jokes about saying "bomb", "osama" and whatever on the phone and then be tracked/recorded. The general media was often mentioning the Echelon network back then, with photographs of a masked antenna farm and some info about who runs them (US, UK, Canada, Aus, NZ).
Since then 8 core pentiums have replaced one core sparcs, 1TB SATA hard disks replaced 10GB SCSI disks, GbaseT replaced 10baseT etc. and the mass media devolved into more of a "social media" echo chamber (that replaced the "blogosphere" in stupid journalists's minds)
So what has changed really?
Even the war lies issues (known before the actual 2003 invasion, not discovered after Snowden leaks) has not changed much in the conduct of US and European powers. No, those countries who opposed invasion are now on-board and they wage "humanitarian" wars to clean up after other failed "humanitarian" wars in the same areas.
it was reported in the link i posted, from government sources
and if you work in IT or t-com you already knew it was all technically possible
Thank you Dave Raggett
Attack the US Homeland (vomit), and watch the paranoiacs and self-serving greedy pricks (Chertoff, et al) come to power. This will do far more damage to a supposedly enlightened, modern country that respects the rights and privacies of its citizens than the actual attacks, even if successful.
Mission Accomplished
we didn't need him **at all** to have a national conversation
in 2006 we knew this was happening...but it wasn't reported
why?
what *is* a "national conversation"...for better or worse, practically speaking "national converstation" is defined by mainstream media
mainstream media is made of people in roles that make decisions about what you see
producers **choose** what to cover, how to cover it, how in-depth to go, who to interview, how long the segment lasts, where it is placed on the web page and print paper....whether to do a follow up story...
that defines the "national conversation"...and we could have had it in 2001 with the Patriot Act or 2006 when this info came to light...
Thank you Dave Raggett
my above comment, modded "-1 Troll" was done so unfairly
agree or not with the content, I have a salient point and provide evidence....that's real discussion not trolling
i offer falsifiablity to my claims as well...not trolling...
whoever downmodded me is a dastardly evildoer
Thank you Dave Raggett
Sounds like you did need him. As you say, the conversation could have happened long before, but actually just the existence of knowledge doesn't provide a sufficient criterion for a public debate about them. Snowden, by virtue of being interesting (a spy! ooh!), official and media savvy, did start a national (actually international) conversation as he did get the issue discussed by mainstream media and into the public awareness. I'm not aware of the balance of media coverage in the US but the LA Times and the Guardian backed him, he's been covered in Time, The Economist, plenty more. The repercussions have been covered (hunt for Snowden, international relations fallout etc.)
You might not like what the mainstream media are saying in the conversation, but there's no doubt there is one.
How Al-Qaeda Uses Encryption Post-Snowden (Part 1)
Analysis Summary
Since 2007, Al-Qaeda’s use of encryption technology has been based on the Mujahideen Secrets platform which has developed to include support for mobile, instant messaging, and Macs.
Following the June 2013 Edward Snowden leaks we observe an increased pace of innovation, specifically new competing jihadist platforms and three (3) major new encryption tools from three (3) different organizations – GIMF, Al-Fajr Technical Committee, and ISIS – within a three to five-month time frame of the leaks.
Washington Post: The Volokh Conspiracy - As evidence mounts, it’s getting harder to defend Edward Snowden
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Before "terrorism", there was communism. Before communism, there were anarchists who assassinated an American president.
The FBI once called Martin Luther King Jr. "the most dangerous man in America" (and given death threats). Sartre wrote about suicide bombing as terrorism in the 40's (and thought it was going out of style! page 80).
Tyrants in the US government have always used name calling in the name of "national security" to justify whatever inhumanities they wish to commit. "Terrorism" is not new; its use as a boogey man to scare the citizenry into the creation of a surveillance state is.
-- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
No, but all this spying by the US and UK is bound to have had an affect on people's opinion regarding Scottish independence.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.u...
I am sure that there are many other solipsists out there.
I'm guessing the NSA did learn something from the experience.
"national conversation" in practice means mainstream media...nightly news...CNN...all making a *big honking deal* about something
you know how it works, it's happening right now with the NFL
media producers choose these stories...it's ***their choice***
Stallman, the EFF, most people on /. and many others (including Sen Wyden from Oregon) were **trying** to get mainstream discussion of these issues but no chance
it never needed to be this way...it's about idiot news people and an industry (ours) that doesn't know how to explain itself
if all Snowden has in his corner at this point is "he started a national conversation" then you've really just accepted defeat
Thank you Dave Raggett
1000% this ^^^
i can't stress enough that if you work in IT, signal processing, and t-com in general none of Snowden's revelations were surpising in the least...the only **actually surprising** info is that we were seeing it discussed on the nightly news
there has been a continual conversation about the issue since /. first began
Thank you Dave Raggett
It is not Edward Snowdens exposure of the policies where the problem lies - but the policies themselves.
http://theuglytruth.wordpress.com
If you think the Valerie Plame saga is worth flogging compared to Snowden you have a very serious gap in your judgment and sense of proportionality.
But if you want to continue, maybe you should get it right.
Valerie Plame
On July 14, 2003, Washington Post journalist Robert Novak, using information obtained from Richard Armitage at the US State Department, effectively ended Valerie Plame's career with the CIA
And no, "Richard Armitage" isn't an anagram for Richard Cheney.
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Snowden leaked to help his fellow citizens. You know, the ones who know what the constitution says and means, and care when it is abused. Those citizens.
The whole debate about "Did Snowden help terrorists" falls into the trap the Three Letter Agencies want us to fall into. That's the trap that suggests that abusing the constitution, spying on innocent civilians, trampling privacy, and lying about it to anyone who asks, is all A-OK because:
1). Terr'ists!
2). Spying (that Isn't Spying) Works!
3). Anyone who says otherwise is a traitor and a Terr'ist Sympathizer!
The Three Letter Agencies cannot get into any discussion about the constitutional lawfulness, democratic wisdom, or freedom impacts of their activities. They lose those arguments on merit, which means they'll have to give up certain toys and powers. Having attained those powers they will fight like hell to keep them. There is money, status and organizational importance (not to mention considerable ego) on the line here.
Being a traitor requires betrayal.
He took the least risk he could...
Taking risk is not betrayal.
... to achieve his ends...
Achieving your goals is not betrayal
...which involved him escaping to whatever anti-American country would take him.
About "anti-American" part: I assume you mean "escaping to wherever would take him AND he could trust to not send him back to the US".
Cowardice is not betrayal.
Your statement only makes sense with unspoken and unsubstantiated assumptions.
"In the United States, doing good has come to be, like patriotism, a favorite device of persons with something to sell." --Mencken
Casteism