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Statisticians Uncover What Makes For a Stable Marriage

HughPickens.com writes Randy Olson, a Computer Science grad student who works with data visualizations, writes about seven of the biggest factors that predict what makes for a long term stable marriage in America. Olson took the results of a study that polled thousands of recently married and divorced Americans and and asked them dozens of questions about their marriage (PDF): How long they were dating, how long they were engaged, etc. After running this data through a multivariate model, the authors were able to calculate the factors that best predicted whether a marriage would end in divorce. "What struck me about this study is that it basically laid out what makes for a stable marriage in the US," writes Olson. Here are some of the biggest factors:

How long you were dating: (Couples who dated 1-2 years before their engagement were 20% less likely to end up divorced than couples who dated less than a year before getting engaged. Couples who dated 3 years or more are 39% less likely to get divorced.); How much money you make: (The more money you and your partner make, the less likely you are to ultimately file for divorce. Couples who earn $125K per year are 51% less likely to divorce than couples making 0 — 25k); How often you go to church: (Couples who never go to church are 2x more likely to divorce than regular churchgoers.); Your attitude toward your partner: (Men are 1.5x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's looks, and women are 1.6x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's wealth.); How many people attended the wedding: ("Crazy enough, your wedding ceremony has a huge impact on the long-term stability of your marriage. Perhaps the biggest factor is how many people attend your wedding: Couples who elope are 12.5x more likely to end up divorced than couples who get married at a wedding with 200+ people."); How much you spent on the wedding: (The more you spend on your wedding, the more likely you'll end up divorced.); Whether you had a honeymoon: (Couples who had a honeymoon are 41% less likely to divorce than those who had no honeymoon)

Of course correlation is not causation. For example, expensive weddings may simply attract the kind of immature and narcissistic people who are less likely to sustain a successful marriage and such people might end up getting divorced even if they married cheaply. But "the particularly scary part here is that the average cost of a wedding in the U.S. is well over $30,000," says Olson, "which doesn't bode well for the future of American marriages."

79 of 447 comments (clear)

  1. Couples where one partner says, "Well yeah but" by Stargoat · · Score: 5, Funny

    Couples where one partner says, "Well yeah, but correlation doesn't equal causation" at least three times a day are almost 100% guaranteed to end up with the death of one spouse at the hands of the other.

    --
    Hoist Number One and Number Six.
    1. Re:Couples where one partner says, "Well yeah but" by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      With the "Correlation doesn't equal causation" argument doesn't mean you can just dismiss the findings.

      For example.
      The 1-2+ years before marriage, means that the couple takes marriage seriously, and wants to be sure it is the right person not just a random fling.
      Having a wedding vs eloping. means that the family is supporting the wedding and less stress of being with that person that is in conflict with your family.
      The length of the wedding. The old wives tail that a long wedding means the couple has been coupling for a while and they are not anxious to consummate their marriage. The shorter wedding means they are much more eager. It could also just mean shorter weddings means they are much more interested in each others than trying to impress other people.
      Money of course creates a lot of tension. Having more of it means less overall stress in the marriage.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    2. Re:Couples where one partner says, "Well yeah but" by tulcod · · Score: 2

      Well sure, but
      - does the one partner saying "Well yeah, but correlation doesn't equal causation" cause the death of the spouse, or
      - does the death of the spouse cause the partner to say "Well yeah, but correlation doesn't equal causation", or
      - is there a third explanatory factor causing both the partner to say "Well yeah, but correlation doesn't equal causation" and the death of the spouse?

    3. Re:Couples where one partner says, "Well yeah but" by CauseBy · · Score: 2

      Hey, fellow married Slashdot men, have you ever tried to win an argument with your wife (or husband, I guess) by saying "No, because that's a logical fallacy!" It doesn't work on my wife.

  2. Re:lies, damned lies, and... by u38cg · · Score: 2

    The first thing I thought when I saw the summary was "multiple comparisons". Then I read it. Basically they shovelled a heap of shit into R and picked out the biggest numbers. Yawn. NEXT!

    --
    [FUCK BETA]
  3. Why get married? by BringsApples · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your marriage will "succeed" or "fail" based on why you're getting married, period. Things come up during any relationship, but reasoning keeps things going. Look at business relationships. Look at the cultures where they have arranged marriages. The thing is, when one side tries to make it work for the sake of the relationship itself, then the other side feels this and also tries. When both sides are trying, then success. Eventually true love develops out of the pure sacredness of the effort from the other side toward your side. Each side sees personal sacrifice and feels in debt.

    There is no mathematical formula for this, for the same reason that pi cannot be pinned down to a certain number.

    --
    Politics; n. : A religion whereby man is god.
    1. Re:Why get married? by tibit · · Score: 2

      I agree with your first paragraph, but the analogy is lacking. Pi is by definition a single, unique number. You claim that pi isn't a number, essentially. It has an infinitely long representation in a positional system that uses digits, but that's just a representation of a number. Don't conflate the number with its representation, or you'll end up with heated nonsensical discussions about whether 0.9999(9) = 1.0(0) or not. Protip: some numbers have multiple positional representations. There's a 1:N relationship between any real or complex number and its positional representations. /rant

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    2. Re:Why get married? by fuzznutz · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The thing is, when one side tries to make it work for the sake of the relationship itself, then the other side feels this and also tries.

      Not necessarily.

      From my own experience, the BIGGEST impediment to my marriage stability was my wife's bipolar syndrome. I was able to hold it all together for nearly 18 years before she finally left the reservation completely. She is now untreated, although it was hit-or-miss when she was with me. I am now the "single dad" with a "deadbeat" absentee mom. She has gone through two more husbands in six years since we split. My financial problems left when she did, which were a great source of our strife, and now she is in financial ruin despite being an employable RN.

      After my own experiences, I would never be serious with a woman who suffered bipolar again. Sorry to all of you who have to deal with it personally, but for two decades it was ruinous for me psychologically, financially, and socially. I will never again be with someone who stays pissed at me for days because of something "I did" in her dreams or yell at me at 2AM because I could sleep during her manic states when she couldn't.

      I hate to be someone that makes wife/girlfriend requirement lists, but.. Crazies need not apply.

    3. Re:Why get married? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

      Rule 1: Never sleep with anyone crazier than yourself.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  4. I sure don't fit the profile by judoguy · · Score: 4, Interesting
    My wife and I dated for about 3 weeks and decided to marry. We had about 10 attendees, mostly stunned relatives present. We had a total combined cash pile of $14.00. The wedding cost maybe $50, her small town family church was either free or really cheap and her father paid the bill. We never had a honeymoon (See the $14 point above!). We both are really into our religion, so I suppose that matches.

    That was 36 years ago.

    --
    Peace is easy to achieve, just surrender. Liberty is much harder get/keep.
    1. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by weilawei · · Score: 2

      We had a total combined cash pile of $14.00.

      We both are really into our religion

      Does it involve flying piles of pasta and meatballs?

    2. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by PineHall · · Score: 2

      I modded you down by mistake so here I am going to hopefully undo the mistake. Happy for your long marriage!

    3. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by judoguy · · Score: 2
      Thanks. We of course told our kids to NEVER do something that risky!

      One took our advice, lived together for a couple of years and appears to have a great marriage. We're watching to see how the other one does.

      --
      Peace is easy to achieve, just surrender. Liberty is much harder get/keep.
    4. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by judoguy · · Score: 2

      Only at big family dinners! BTW, our church has no antipathy to divorce either, just recommends trying to work things out when possible, but no stigma.

      --
      Peace is easy to achieve, just surrender. Liberty is much harder get/keep.
    5. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by meustrus · · Score: 2

      It sounds like you aren't a couple of shallow narcissists and you both have strong community support structures. Those, in my opinion are the most important parts; the parts about money and honeymoon I think are only important to preventing friction in less stable relationships. It's all statistics anyway; the correlations might be useful for predicting the success of a marriage, but they are only about as valuable as the odds in a horse race. What we really want to do is control the outcome, but we can't figure out how with just the odds. A controlled scientific study is the only way to get that kind of certainty, and I don't know how you would design one. I strongly suspect nobody does.

      --
      I sometimes ask revealing, often ignorant-seeming questions. Maybe they're harder to answer than you think.
    6. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by Skarjak · · Score: 2

      That's incredible that you are in such a long-lasting marriage despite only knowing the person for 3 weeks before you got married. Weren't you afraid that you didn't know the person well enough? At that point in time, you're still well in the "butterflies in the stomach" phase.

    7. Re:I sure don't fit the profile by canadian_right · · Score: 2

      I know a couple like you, met at a bar, married two weeks later, been happy ever since. I many more couples who were divorced after a year who did one of the following: dated less than a year, had more than 200 people at the wedding (more people = more expensive), or eloped.

      People vary a lot. Relationships vary a lot, but there do seem to be trends that help form long lasting marriages: date at least two years, don't live together before the marriage, have a nice wedding, have a honeymoon, and DO discuss all the important stuff before getting married (kids, money, sex).

      --
      Anarchists never rule
  5. At Odds by SJHillman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Couples who elope are 12.5x more likely to end up divorced than couples who get married at a wedding with 200+ people.");"

    "Whether you had a honeymoon (Couples who had a honeymoon are 41% less likely to divorce than those who had no honeymoon).""

    Those two seem to be at odds with this one:

    "How much you spent on the wedding (The more you spend on your wedding, the more likely you'll end up divorced.);"

    Unless they mean that you should invite 200 people to a park wedding with no food, and then honeymoon in the alley behind Dunkin' Donuts to take advantage of their dumpster?

    1. Re:At Odds by joss · · Score: 2

      > "Couples who elope are 12.5x more likely to end up divorced than couples who get married at a wedding with 200+ people.

      Doesn't seem at odds to me.

      People who act impulsively for their own immediate gratification are more likely to get divorced than those who plan stuff intricately and have the combined social pressure of all their friends and relatives acting on them. Well, knock me down with a feather.

      --
      http://rareformnewmedia.com/
    2. Re:At Odds by BrianH · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Excessive spending on a wedding may also reflect a "prince/princess" mentality, where people see their wedding day as the beginning of some great romantic journey straight out of a Disney movie. Many younger people jump into marriage without an understanding about what marriage really is. When the rather dreary realities of life set in and don't match their preconceptions, the entire marriage can fall apart. An expensive wedding can be an indicator of that mindset.

      My sister dropped over $30k on my nieces wedding, only to be floored when my niece divorced her husband just three years later. Her excuse? He wasn't "romantic anymore". She wanted a fairytale romance with a "happily ever after", and thought that something was wrong with her marriage when "happily ever after" turned into "working to pay the bills", "only vacationing twice a year", "what do you mean, I should get a job too?" and "my adorable Prince Charming husband works 14 hours a day to make ends meet and is so tired when he gets home that he has no time for meeeee *whine*".

      It's the fallout from the princess culture, imho.

      --

      There is nothing so pathetic as seeing a beautiful young theory roughed up by a tough gang of facts.
  6. Re:outsource your wedding by StripedCow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    And how do you get rid of them before the wedding night?

    --
    If Pandora's box is destined to be opened, *I* want to be the one to open it.
  7. Re:lies, damned lies, and... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I am a social scientist. The methodology employed in this paper; and the summary offered by OP is completely off. OP alludes to causality, but that isn't really possible with summary statistics. Please don't lump all of us in with this terrible methodology.

  8. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 2

    Your attitude toward your partner (Men are 1.5x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's looks, and women are 1.6x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's wealth.)

    What about men caring for their wife wealth and women caring for their husband looks ? What about homosexual couple ? Also a lot of the reason given seems to boild down to the following :

    * if you know somebody for a long time before getting married your marriage is more stable (less bad surprise)

    * if you or your spouse has a lot of wealth invested either in the ceremony or yourself, you are less likely to "split" away and lose wealth

    Not necessarily sexist. Maybe they asked both sexes the same questions and they found that the there was no significant correlation with whether women cared about men's looks or whether men cared about women's wealth.

    I'm more interested in the "churchgoing" thing. It flies in the face of studies that show atheists don't have very different odds of getting divorced, whereas conservative Christians have higher divorce rates. Maybe the actual atheists are buried in a larger population of people that are nominally religious but don't go to church. I can see how the latter might be an interesting subgroup of religious people. These are people that think something is important but don't do it anyway. Atheists might be a lot more like the unfiltered population of religious people in that they are neither more nor less likely to do things they regard as important.

  9. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Also wealthier people simply have more resources to deal with financial trouble. They're not as likely to be split by external financial pressures, able to afford marriage counseling, possibly less likely to have been financially pressured into selecting a poor match and less likely to be looking to upgrade to a wealthier partner.

  10. Re:outsource your wedding by arfonrg · · Score: 5, Funny

    Better yet, just hire an indian couple to get married for you. MUCH MORE EFFICIENT!

    --
    Your thin skin doesn't make me a troll
  11. Re:Why anyway? by arfonrg · · Score: 2

    "Source?"
    This painting- http://www.essaysbyekowa.com/T...

    --
    Your thin skin doesn't make me a troll
  12. Re:Or, just don't get married. by Drethon · · Score: 5, Interesting

    My wife and I were together for 7 years and lived together for 6 months before we got married. We had to deal with a lot of things happening before we could even move in together. We got married because we wanted to and being married did not really change anything from the way it was before we got married.

    8.5 years later things really haven't changed since before we got married. We still argue at times, sometimes fairly heated. We don't always make up after the arguments but we understand we are two different people who often see things differently but are committed to each other.

    I think having a wife that is just like me would be more relaxing but probably a lot less interesting.

  13. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Forgefather · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I would be really interested in a link for something like this because on the surface it seems intuitive that people why go to church may be exposed to more societal pressure to maintain an unhappy marriage than risk social shame for going through a divorce.

    --
    "There are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics"
  14. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by gnasher719 · · Score: 2

    'm more interested in the "churchgoing" thing. It flies in the face of studies that show atheists don't have very different odds of getting divorced, whereas conservative Christians have higher divorce rates.

    In some places there is still quite a high stigma in divorce. There shouldn't be, a relevant quote is "Divorce isn't the death of a marriage. Divorce is the funeral", but still there are people who won't get divorced for some reason when there is no value in their marriage. This may be stronger among some Christians (and other religions where one of the couple isn't really asked about their opinion in the matter).

  15. Re:Why anyway? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

    Source?

    Marriage is a cultural universal practiced by almost all human societies. Even the most primitive tribes have some type of marriage ritual. The Mosuo society in Yunnan does not have a tradition of marriage, but AFAIK that is the only society that does not.

  16. Re:outsource your wedding by tibit · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A $9k wedding can be quite a treat in the U.S. as long as you dispense with the bullshit of playing dress-up and having a formal, overpaid party. Just go to a good restaurant, eat a good dinner, hit a club afterwards. Heck, if you want to look cute, $1k buys all the clothes, hairdo and makeup you'll need, if you wish to put a little bit of elbow grease into it.

    --
    A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
  17. Re:Or, just don't get married. by technomom · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Obtain visiting rights at hospital and for couples with widely different incomes, filing jointly is better. And then there's, of course, the lessening of the "When the hell are you guys going to get married?/Make an honest woman of her?" questions from rude relatives.

  18. Re:Or, just don't get married. by Bigbutt · · Score: 2, Funny

    "Hey, why buy the cow when the milk is free?"

    (Yea I heard that from her relatives fairly often)

    [John]

    --
    Shit better not happen!
  19. Would be more interesting with better analysis by swillden · · Score: 5, Interesting

    There are lots of correlated variables here, so it's difficult to pick out useful information.

    The comment thread on the article includes lots of discussion about the impossibility of a wedding that is both cheap and large, but lots of people pointing out that weddings with lots of church and/or community support can be both cheap and large. But church and/or community support are also correlated with other elements of a very stable social structure.

    For example, my wedding was both large (> 600 people attended our reception) and cheap (< $3000). How is that possible? We're Mormon, so the actual marriage ceremony was at the LDS temple, which is free, and allows limited attendance. Then we had a wedding breakfast for the ~50 people who attended the ceremony, but the breakfast was at the church (free) and the food was cooked and served by members of our congregation (ingredients cost: low; labor: free). The reception was at the church (free); the bridesmaids paid for their own dresses, best man rented his tux, etc.; the flowers were a wedding gift from a cousin with a flower shop; the table centerpieces and other decorations were handmade by friends and relatives, so we only paid for the materials (cheap); the cake was made by my aunt, who had a wedding business on the side, and cost us $200 for a large, beautiful and tasty cake; my aunt also provided backdrops and other decorations; and some other relatives who are professional photographers did the photos. I don't recall who did the music, but it was all free, using the church's sound equipment. Our biggest expense was the hors d'oeuvres which were actually made by my wife's sisters, so we paid only for the ingredients.

    The common thread throughout that list is heavy support from friends, family and community. But I suspect that deep family and church/community support are strongly correlated with long-lasting marriages for lots of reasons which have nothing to do with the wedding day, which to me suggests that those are far more relevant and that wedding cost and attendance are mere proxies for those variables. Also related is the fact that if a lot of people attend, you also get a lot of gifts. So big/cheap weddings are financially beneficial to the couple (mine sure was; spontaneous cash gifts alone -- from the "money tree" -- were more than 2X what we spent, plus all of the gifts of housewares, etc.), while small/expensive weddings are a net drain on their finances.

    Similarly, long-term dating tends to be more uncommon among those who get married very young, because it takes time to date someone for 2-3 years, and it's well-known that marriages of the very young are riskier.

    Elopement is another one: Those who elope are generally people who decide to get married on the spur of the moment. Such impulsiveness doesn't bode well for future decisions if your goal is long-term stability.

    It would be interesting to see a study on this done well, with lots of effort put into teasing apart the correlated variables. This one doesn't actually tell us much.

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    1. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by WrongMonkey · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Note that your wedding wasn't really cheap, you just spread out your costs through expected reciprocal obligations. The biggest cost is that you'll be expected to continue giving 10% of your income to the Church for the rest of your life. At future weddings, you'll be the one expected to provide food, cash, gifts, etc. You probably consider your tithe and participation in your community barter economy to be a sunk cost, so it seems like a good deal. But from a outsider view, you're actually spending a whole lot more than someone who just rents a banquet hall and hires a caterer.

    2. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by Skarjak · · Score: 2

      This is one the things that sucks about being an atheist. Other than the existential dread, of course. I will never really have this feeling of community. I know that I will always be able to count on my close family, but that's where it ends.

      I have no belief in god nor any intention to change my mind on the subject, but what you described is pretty appealing.

    3. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by swillden · · Score: 2

      Note that your wedding wasn't really cheap, you just spread out your costs through expected reciprocal obligations.

      Obviously. Ignoring the tithing issue (since that really isn't relevant to getting married), I have reciprocal obligations to my community and family. My brother-in-law is getting married next week, and he and his husband-to-be have asked me to be their photographer (I'm not a pro, but I don't suck). I've helped out in various ways with many other weddings, and I end up giving several wedding gifts every year. It seems to average about one a month, actually... I just looked in my financial software and I've averaged just under $1,000 per year in wedding gifts over the past several years.

      I have no doubt that I have already put more into others' weddings than I got out of my own (financially speaking), and I'll give far more yet, but that's not only okay, it's fantastic, because I received when I was young and poor and needed help to set up a new house and I'm giving now that I'm old and established and have disposable income to gift.

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    4. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 2

      For example, my wedding was both large (> 600 people attended our reception) and cheap (< $3000). How is that possible? We're Mormon

      Yea, you're Mormon, that's why. Sure. It has nothing to do with the fact that there was no open bar. I've been a guest at many weddings, and it sounds like yours sucked. I mean, breakfast?! Who gets married in the AM?!

      I'm joking. But seriously, what you describe has as much in common with a "wedding" as simply going to the courthouse to sign some papers and then hitting up the White Castle drive-thru. To many people, a wedding by definition includes a celebratory wedding feast, complete with flowing alcohol and elaborate (read: expensive) edible creations. While in theory this could be accomplished with homemade foods and homemade garments and a soundtrack provided by the whistling wind, in practice many people would find that to be a cheap immitation of the real thing and would be unsatified associating the quality of their relationship with the quality of such a farce.

      That being said, social practices like the celebratory wedding feast serve to impede social mobility by ensuring the next generation always starts with a significant financial handicap.

      --
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    5. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by swillden · · Score: 2

      Well, that's how it's done around here... and I suppose I'm biased, but I think it's better, if for no reason other than it is much more fiscally sensible. The weddings I'm familiar with start the couple off with a financial boost, not a handicap.

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    6. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 2

      I agree with you in the sense that I also think it's better, if only due to financial concerns. However, I still question whether it is best.

      I prefer to reason about things in a vacuum, independent of "how it's done around here" and other such practical considerations. When I find a person I want to spend the rest of my life with, what should I do? Well, clearly, I should spend the rest of my life with them. Should I throw a huge party for all my friends and family? Should I provide them with all the food and booze they could possibly want? I mean, while all that sounds fun, I can't for the life of me figure out what the fuck they have to do with me wanting to spend the rest of my life with someone. Beyond "that's how it's done around here", of course.

      However, I go one step further. Should I get married? After all, being married is as tangential to a lifelong partnership as is throwing a huge party. Sure, "that's how it's done around here", but I can't identify any rational basis for why that ought to be how it's done. Some people waste a ton of money on an elaborate wedding. Others waste a ton of time on courthouse weddings and divorce proceedings. I can't understand why someone would (of their own volition) endure such complexities.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    7. Re:Would be more interesting with better analysis by swillden · · Score: 2

      With regard to reasoning in a vacuum, I both agree and disagree. I definitely agree that it's a good idea to take a step back and reconsider old ways in light of new understanding. For example, I've been reading a lot lately about the history of the civil rights of blacks in the United States, the progress from outright slavery, to wink-and-nod slavery that was arguably worse, to equal-but-separate which wasn't in any way equal, to equality in principle but not practice, to the current state which is near equality in practice but with significant handicaps in the form of quiet biases, unequal starting points and unproductive cultural norms. None of that would happen without re-thinking from first principles, and it's an unquestionable good. Considerable more progress in racial equality needs to be made, and will be made only with careful analysis of the whys and wherefores of current cultural norms.

      However, I disagree that it's feasible or even desirable to rethink everything, for two reasons.

      The first really comes from a close friend of mine. He and I had many long discussions on this topic 15 or so years ago. He had, for several years, been attempting to forge his own path, ignoring social norms and reasoning out all of his important decisions from first principles, himself. The result of that, he decided, was intellectual exhaustion, and not a great deal of happiness. He decided that it was just too much. After largely abandoning the effort for a decade or so, accepting social norms except where he had good reason to take a different route, he's much happier. I don't think his example is an isolated case -- and I think the reason is my second reason.

      The second reason is that I think reasoning from first principles will often produce suboptimal results, because we as individuals lack the wisdom and experience to reason correctly. Social norms are, in many cases, the distillation of centuries, even millenia, of experience, and that knowledge, much of which is subtle and non-obvious, isn't necessarily available to us. Granted that in some cases new technology and evolving social structures change the assumptions underlying the knowledge and invalidate it, and in those cases reasoning from first principles is the best we can do. But in the case of human emotional needs, and the value and nature of lifelong human partnerships I really don't think anything has changed, or is likely to. Dramatically-increased lifespans might change it. Or maybe not.

      Looking at marriage customs in particular, I think it's very telling that every long-lasting human culture includes the concept of marriage. Moreover, while there are large differences in the details of marriage ceremonies and the social activities which surround them, what is extraordinarily consistent is the fact that there is a formal ceremony of commitment and that it's performed as a community and family event. Given the vast differences between various cultures, that commonality indicates to me that there are deep and important issues that are addressed by the ceremony and the party.

      After nearly 25 years of my own marriage, I think I even know what some of them are. I think a big one is to add some friction, to make getting into and out of partnerships non-trivial. I see huge value in that because (a) there is real, important and measurable value in lasting partnerships and (b) long-term partnerships are really hard. Without some friction and some social expectations that drive people to avoid lightly dissolving such partnerships, it's far too easy to simply throw in the towel when the going gets rough... and it will get rough at some point.

      Ideally, people would realize that the relationship itself is important enough that they'll weather the bad spots, but in practice when you're in such a bad spot you absolutely do not see value in the relationship. In fact the relationship seems like your biggest problem, and the idea of dumping it and getting a new -- presumably better -- one seems like the perfect so

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  20. Re:outsource your wedding by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Funny

    Yeah, but how do you get 200+ people there for the party, without the cost going up?

    Just hire some locals to attend. The important thing is to get over the 200 guest threshold so you don't get divorced.

  21. The factors, condensed by PostPhil · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This can really be condensed to only three, since some are redundant if you know the underlying cause. It's not like a research study is needed if you know people with successful marriages. The factors they chose that have an impact really only reflect the relevance of the following factors:

    1. Taking marriage seriously. Eloping or skipping a honeymoon says "I don't want to invest much in this." Even those with moderate income can have a modest wedding and inexpensive honeymoon instead of going all out. Any indicator of not taking the marriage seriously is a negative, no matter what form it takes.

    2. Genuinely valuing the other person for who they are. Hence, this means to not be a gold-digger or care more about looks. Also, dating longer is just an indicator that "finding the right person" is the attitude the person is taking, which means they want the person as a person to be a good match. By contrast, looks and money can be identified immediately, so it doesn't require a long time to get engaged. Desperation is also not a good reason for marriage, and desperation doesn't need a long time to get engaged.

    3. Having a deterrent for divorce. Rich people, church-goers, and people with lots of people at their wedding have a lot of people to pressure you to stay together because you lead *public lives*. You don't get a private divorce, you get public embarrassment. Rich people have an additional deterrent in that it's a lot of money to lose if your ex-spouse wants to take you to the cleaners.

    1. Re:The factors, condensed by davide+marney · · Score: 2

      4. Taking marriage vows seriously. A vow is a promise, a promise you make primarily to yourself but of course also to your spouse and your children (if any). Life has ups and downs. When things get really rough, you will have to depend on the promise you made to keep you in the marriage until you can get to the other side.

      That said, it is possible for your partner to make it impossible for you to keep your vow, by breaking the relationship itself. If someone is unfaithful and abandons the relationship, for example, or if your partner dies, no amount of trying on your part can repair that. In that case, I would say as there is no vow that can be kept, there is no vow at all.

      --
      "We receive as friendly that which agrees with, we resist with dislike that which opposes us" - Faraday
    2. Re:The factors, condensed by codeButcher · · Score: 2

      5. Could also be that people with many guests actually where able to hang on to relationships with friends; you don't make 100 friends a month before your wedding, it takes time. Ergo, also being able to hang on to relationship with spouse. And have a large support network. (I suppose it differs in other cultures, but I would think that a wedding is a fairly personal thing, so you tend to avoid strangers (apart from those "have to invite" relatives).) 6. Cheap weddings could be because of above-mentioned support network. Could be an indication that one is able to solve problems ("how to get flowers with little money"). Could also be an indication of value system: superficial "show" is less important than the deeper values in marriage.

      --
      Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
  22. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Jason+Levine · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There might also be a sort of "reverse correlation" between divorce and going to church. If you go to a church where divorce is frowned upon and you get a divorce, you might be less likely to go to church (and deal with the whispers of "X got divorced... how SCANDALOUS!"). Thus, when the survey hits, they'd find that more people who go to church are still married. It could easily be the attitude of the parishioners keeping divorced people out, not the church keeping people married.

    --
    My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
  23. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by swb · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I would argue that larger weddings are evidence of a larger social support network of family and friends. More social support likely leads to improved psychology for both partners and perhaps better support when the marriage may encounter trying circumstances.

    Cost in and of itself seems to be a function of narcissism and expectations that diverge from reality. Plus a lot of couples who spend freely on a wedding may burden themselves financially and face economic challenges early in a marriage when they may be younger and less capable of weathering them. Or it may indicate a lack of financial discipline which just repeats itself when married.

  24. Re:Why is the paper so important? by jareth-0205 · · Score: 2

    So what you're saying is that everyone considers you married already, so effectively you are. In your country it would be about publicly making a promise about the other person, and since that is assumed then probably no reason at all.

    Other countries and social structures are different though, sometimes there's a legal benefit (ie some hospitals in the states have been preventing gay partners from visiting their other because they're not family, because they have no legal status and presumably the hospital staff have some bigoted beliefs, and without that 'bit of paper' they can enforce them), and sometimes there's a social or personal reason for making a public statement.

  25. Re:Why anyway? by nucrash · · Score: 4, Informative

    Look up Shinto Buddhists
    Look up Hindu
    Look up Taoists
    Look up Buddhists.

    Many of these religions had little or no contact with Christianity.

    Christianity didn't even handle marriage until after the fall of the Roman Empire. Before that, marriage was tied to the state.

    --
    Place something witty here
  26. Re:The Secret by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    The secret of successful marriage is beating off.

    There, FTFY. You seem to have made a typo.

  27. let me summarize by slashmydots · · Score: 2

    Irresponsible, immature, self-absorbed assholes who have a poor opinion of their spouse get divorced 500x more often than normal, nice, decent, reasonable people. Who would have guessed? At least this dispels the absolutely ridiculous myth that Christians have the same divorce rate as everyone else.

  28. Re:Or, just don't get married. by Dcnjoe60 · · Score: 2

    Obtain visiting rights at hospital and for couples with widely different incomes, filing jointly is better.

    And then there's, of course, the lessening of the "When the hell are you guys going to get married?/Make an honest woman of her?" questions from rude relatives.

    Funny, if you tell the nurse you are a family member or spouse, they let you right in. It's not like they do a background check. Plus, assuming the patient isn't comatose, they can give instructions to allow whomever in. As for taxes, unless only one spouse works or the other has minimal income, there is no real tax savings from being married.

    As for rude relatives, well, you can't choose your relatives, but you can choose whether or not to be around them.

  29. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by gmack · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It is more than just pressure. There is also a support network of close friends and any good church will offer marriage counselling to try and sort out problems long before it gets to divorce.

  30. Left out male height by gurps_npc · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Short men tend to get married later but stay married longer. Referenced

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  31. Re:Or, just don't get married. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    This is untrue. Married people always have the option to file taxes separately. You pick whatever way works out best. Here is a link that explains why there is a big tax benefit to being married, not a penalty.

  32. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by gmack · · Score: 2

    I'm more interested in the "churchgoing" thing. It flies in the face of studies that show atheists don't have very different odds of getting divorced, whereas conservative Christians have higher divorce rates. Maybe the actual atheists are buried in a larger population of people that are nominally religious but don't go to church. I can see how the latter might be an interesting subgroup of religious people. These are people that think something is important but don't do it anyway. Atheists might be a lot more like the unfiltered population of religious people in that they are neither more nor less likely to do things they regard as important.

    You have hit the nail on the head. There is a massive group of self identifying Christians who never attend church and never read the bible for themselves but call themselves Christians because their parents (or some family in the past) were Christians and since they outnumber Christians take their faith seriously, it has produced a lot of statistical noise and now we see clumsy attempts like this to work around the problem.

  33. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 2
    From the second half of the first sentence of TFS:

    ...writes aboutÂseven of the biggest factors that predict what makes for a long term stable marriage in America.

    Emphasis mine.

    It would be interesting to see what the divorce rate of Hindus is after living in the US after 5, 10, 20 years. And what the differences are when one or both of the couple's parents live with them or close by vs. their families remaining a large distance away.

    I'm sure the divorce rate would be much lower the average American marriage. But I would guess without the pressures of culture and family, it would go up.

  34. Re:Or, just don't get married. by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The government has a good reason to favor certain lifestyles. Up until the last century, it was a lifestyle that had one person at home, raising the kids, and the other one out making money for them. And those were the same people who caused the children to come into existence.

    The government doesn't give a shit if you love your partner, they just want to make sure that those who can breed are encouraged to control their spawn and provide for them.

    The divorce rate and the whole "who can get married" debate is everyone missing the point about why you get married and why the government even gets involved. It's about the government providing convenience and some breaks in return for control.

  35. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by FooAtWFU · · Score: 4, Informative

    Forget the stigma of divorce. In some places there are still different social values involved. These people aren't spineless or mere slaves to the apparent popular opinion of the local population (which would be a fragile situation circular, since they are the local population); they believe that marriage is a holy, sacramental bond which does things to your soul. If present, this conviction is a far stronger reason to avoid divorce than social pressure.

    --
    The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
  36. Stability criterion by PPH · · Score: 5, Funny

    According to my wife, its no poles in the right half plane.

    No matter how much I beg.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  37. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by tnk1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Marriage isn't necessarily like an overripe fruit which, once it goes bad, it is done. Relationships can be worked on, and when they are, you can overcome bad situations.

    I won't suggest that all relationships can be repaired, nor should they be. Still, if you spend the time finding a good match, as opposed to going straight for the fat wallet or a nice pair of tits, you have a shot at picking someone who isn't necessarily perfect, but someone you have a fighting chance of having enough in common to mend a relationship, if you try.

    Point being, there is a tendency to be dismissive of Christians (or whoever), who stick it out longer than others might due to community influence. Without effort put into working on the relationship, that may well just generate misery, but if the couple has a solid basis for a relationship, it can cause the couple to actually work on something when they might otherwise have decided to simply give up.

    Marriage is one of those things where people are inclined to turn it into something disposable, where in reality, many of those people simply shouldn't have gotten married at all. The problem isn't with the ability to get divorced quickly or easily, the problem is with the people who think they should get married, but who really shouldn't have even left their number for the other person after the drunk sex.

  38. Re:Do a prenup by tempmpi · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If both party's motives are pure, they should have no problem with one.

    Well, if someone asks for a pre-nup he or she is already considering divorce to be a event with a rather high likelyhood. Is it really smart to marry someone who considers divorce a likely event?

    --
    Jan
  39. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by JeffAtl · · Score: 2

    And shame the spouses if they consider divorce.

  40. Re:Or, just don't get married. by meustrus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Up until the last century, it was a lifestyle that had one person at home, raising the kids, and the other one out making money for them. And those were the same people who caused the children to come into existence.

    That's actually bullshit. The "woman stays home" model may have been an ideal for a long time (though certainly not the entirety of human existence), but that doesn't mean most people could afford it. Aristocrats might do so, but then aristocrats don't really need either partner to work and the wife was more likely to have servants care for house and children to make room for a busy social calendar. Which leaves us with the middle class, which until the 1950s wasn't very large in America. If you marry a doctor or a lawyer, you could stay home (and your egotistical husband probably would rather you didn't threaten to be successful like the big important doctor). Otherwise...well, you found other ways to make a living.

    The poor unwashed masses don't have the luxury of consistent income able to support an entire family from just one job. They have always had every possible member of the family working, especially in the past when children older than toddlers were given a lot more freedom with much less supervision. Husband working a construction job, wife working in a textile mill, and if you're really lucky the two could do both at the same time for years. If you aren't, well then somebody will be home raising chickens or something and probably engaging in a local barter market.

    Not every "tradition" actually goes back any farther than your grandparents. Know your history. Not just the "great events" version of history either; know how people lived and the kind of economic opportunities they had. There's a lot more interesting about the 1800s than all the wars. Don't let some 1950s sexist reaction after WW2 overwrite the reality of your ancestors.

    --
    I sometimes ask revealing, often ignorant-seeming questions. Maybe they're harder to answer than you think.
  41. Does not have to be exclusive to be christian by tempmpi · · Score: 2

    Too bad basic literacy isn't part of your religion. The original poster specifically called marriage a "Christian tradition."

    It certainly is a Christian tradition, but it is clearly not a exclusively Christian tradition. Just like "Honour your father and mother" is clearly a Christian value, it clearly is not a value that is exclusive to Christianity.

    --
    Jan
  42. Re:Do a prenup by xski · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If both party's motives are pure, they should have no problem with one.

    Well, if someone asks for a pre-nup he or she is already considering divorce to be a event with a rather high likelyhood. Is it really smart to marry someone who considers divorce a likely event?

    It means nothing of the sort. It means they understand that life isn't a fairy tale, that anything is possible in human relations and that includes divorce, like it or not. Is it really smart to marry someone who lives in a fantasy land where bad things like divorce don't happen? Or worse, just don't happen to them because they're somehow special? Likelihood isn't the issue. Possibility is. Its always possible.

  43. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Bengie · · Score: 2

    I remember reading something about Christians having higher divorce rates than atheists a while back. I myself am Christian, but not in the annoying way that many are. Just based on personal experience, it wouldn't surprise me because so many Christians that I've known were very judgmental two-faced people that tended to top it off with a "do as I say, not as I do" mentality. I was amazed that two people like this could live together for an extended period of time.

    Statistically, the Bible Belt has the highest divorce rate, along with many other problems, like highest teen pregnancy rates, violent crime rates, etc. I would lump these people into the "conservative Christian" group. Maybe if they read the Bible instead of just thumping it around as a tool to scare people, they would have higher quality lives.

  44. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by wiredlogic · · Score: 2

    I read that as there being a lot of miserable souls stuck in failed marriages because they fear the social stigma of being divorced that rains down from their church/cult. These are the sort of people who let their sense of social worth be impressed upon themselves by others rather than come from within. Meanwhile the rest of the secular world has wised up to the stupidity of wasting the remainder of one's life with the wrong person.

    --
    I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
  45. I call BS on a few of these stats by DRMShill · · Score: 3, Informative

    First off that 30k average for a wedding is based off a survey in a high end bridal magazine. So the people who answered that are exactly the sort who would be in the market to spend 30k on wedding. http://resultzdigital.com/wall...

    Second, this church going statistic needs a bit more elaboration. Because atheists and agnostics have the lowest rate of divorce in the U.S. while fundamentalist Christians have the highest. http://www.religioustolerance..... So do they mean to imply that Christians divorce less or is it that lazy Christians divorce more?

    Other than that interesting statistics.

  46. Mixture of factors by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

    Duration of dating before marriage would be a good predictor, as would female desire for wealthy spouse (negative) and male desire for pretty spouse (negative), in that duration will allow a couple to get past the "in love" phase to the "love" phase, and looks and wealth fade.

    Sunk costs of giant weddings and social pressures account for most of the rest.

    The question is, are you happy? What do you define as happy?

    My grandparents all got married with an expectation that their spouse was their partner. Marriage used to be more about family and stability than about other stuff.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  47. And now some idiots will turnt his round... by gweihir · · Score: 2

    ... and think that generating all these factors will give them a more long-term marriage. People routinely do not understand the difference between correlation and causation, and, more importantly, that causation has a _direction_ that is all-important.

    Basically, all the study says is that the more serious you take marriage, the longer it is likely to last. It does not say anything about happiness or achievement of personal goals (unless the number of years is a goal for you).

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  48. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

    Stats regarding who is / isnt Christian and what theyre like are all over the road depending on your criteria:

      * Do Jehovah's Witnesses / Mormons (who deny pretty core tenets) figure into the stats?
      * Is belief in the deity of God / Christ required?
      * Is any particular personal conviction required, or just an upbringing by professors?
    etc.

    I recall a poll (Gallup?) that had some 75% of responants claiming to be christian, but only something like 50% believed in the deity of Christ (pretty much required for anything resembling Christianity), and the number goes down when you ask about a personally knowable God vs a transcendent watchmaker. The word Christian may just be the most ambiguously used word in the english language; when someone tells me theyre Christian, it tells me basically nothing at all except that they dont think theyre atheist (but some actually are).

  49. Re:Or, just don't get married. by tnk1 · · Score: 2

    Actually, I thought about it, and you're actually right, and I am somewhat ashamed about that particular statement. Contrary to your belief, I know quite a bit of economic history, but I can totally see why you might think I didn't. That's what happens when my brain gets detached from my fingers.

    However, the point is still that you have marriage for a state objective of maintaining order. That is why the state even cares. Those who do not breed do not produce children. Maintaining a stable family unit, whether that be an extended family or a nuclear one, or something different, is useful to a state because it creates order for relatively low cost. Today, we attempt to replace that with programs, but they are not as well developed as order generated by clan or family relationships.

    State sponsored marriage is not about love, for the state it is about the exploitation of love to maintain order. And well that it is, because I don't want the state telling me what "love" is. Now that we're expecting the state to legitimize "love", we're walking down a path we might not realize we are going down.

  50. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by climb_no_fear · · Score: 3, Interesting

    While I find arranged marriages horrifying personally, a friend (not Hindu) was married that way and at least their process was interesting to say the least. The families selected potential partners based on their knowledge of their (adult) childrens' personalities. He went on dates with the suggested women and, the third one was apparently compatible. They have been together for 20 years now.

    But maybe that is just the old-fashioned version of a modern online dating service's compatibility algorithm.

  51. Re:outsource your wedding by operagost · · Score: 2

    My wife and I spent less than $2K on our wedding and reception. Yes, we had an actual reception, with good food, a dance floor, and a DJ for about 100 guests. Ordering the gown over the internet instead of going to a ripoff bridal boutique helps a lot. So does actually comparison shopping, instead of just seeing something and buying it immediately.

    Meanwhile, my sister-in-law spent at least 5K-- excuse me, she ran up over 5K on credit cards, which she never paid off-- and has never been financially stable, even when living rent-free with her husband's uncle. I make several times more than she does, yet she simply had to have a (relatively) fancy wedding and, I presume, hope fairies would fly carrying gold coins to pay for it. And trust me, having a wedding she couldn't afford wasn't the begging or the end of her financial troubles.

    --

    Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
  52. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Rakarra · · Score: 2

    It's more than just shame -- the Catholic Church has a number of hoops its members have to jump through before it will recognize a divorce. In fact, you cannot get divorced as a Catholic. From the state's perspective, of course you can, but the Church will require that you get the marriage declared annulled retroactively, so that from the Church's perspective, the marriage never happened (or was, more accurate, never valid from the start).

  53. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Rakarra · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why do you think your irrational belief in ghosts is less annoying than someone else's?

    Ultimately, the willingness to believe things because "someone said so" is what leads to the ills of religion in its many forms. Your religion is no less irrational or annoying than someone else's.

    As an atheist, I'm obviously a non-believer as well, and I think you need to stop with the belittling. The combative, militant atheist is just as annoying as the Westboro member. Well. Maybe not quite so much. But you will convert no one with such tactics, and you drive away the people in the middle who may just come to the conclusion "man... atheists are a bunch of assholes."

  54. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by Bengie · · Score: 2

    I would describe me being "Christian" as more of a practical application of aspiring to being "Christ like", as in forgiving, non-judgmental, etc; To the best of my human ability.

    I also have this hard time "accepting" that what I experience as consciousness is not only just a collection of particles interacting with each other, but that the Universe is essentially a static n-dimensional crystal that is fixed and non-changing, which is the logical conclusion of accepting a purely deterministic Universe.

    I use the word "accepting" loosely. I logically accept that I am a deterministic bag of carbon, but I can't easily fight the perception of "free will" that I experience. It is a very hard thing to reason away. All of our logic is based on our perceptions, and when logic and perception conflict, it's hard to be somewhat non-logical about it. Our sense of self is really the only thing that keeps us alive, yet it conflicts with the logic that our lives are meaningless in an already determined Universe. "Meaning" is not a real thing, it is something artificial created in our minds. A bit depressing. Whatever.

    All of that being said, science is our best form of truth. I love science and I find it fun to attempt wrapping my head about the Big Bang and how time came into existence and when it will end, if it will end. My personal thought is that that "Big Freeze" will eventually leave the entire Universe in a quantum state and time stops because it's at a maximum entropy state, where an infinite possibilities may happen at once, at which point one of those possibilities will become reality, and another "Big Bang" may happen again, and the process repeats itself as a "New Universe" with a new minimum entropy moving forward in time,yet again, towards it's maximum. I don't know, but it's an idea.

  55. Re:Questiona re a bit sexists by labnet · · Score: 2

    Or it could be church goers on the whole have a better attitude to marriage. Like 1cor13, exposing the selfless virtues of love, and the many endorsements of sticking with the partner you have chosen.

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    46137