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Did Alcatraz Escapees Survive? Computer Program Says They Might Have
In June of 1962, three prisoners escaped the penitentary on Alcatraz, in an elaborate plot that was dramatized in a Clint Eastwood movie. A question that has long puzzled the public is whether these men ever made it to shore; the many factors that made Alcatraz a secure prison include sharks, cold water, and contrary currents. Still, some artifacts from the attempt, and perhaps the appeal of stories about survival against high odds, have led many people to believe that the men actually landed safely and faded into society. coondoggie writes This week Dutch scientists from Delft University of Technology presented findings from a computer modeling program they were working on, unrelated to the mystery, that demonstrated the escapees could have survived the journey. "In hindsight, the best time to launch a boat from Alcatraz was [11:30 am], one and a half hours later than has generally been assumed. A rubber boat leaving Alcatraz at [11:30 am] would most likely have landed just north of the Golden Gate Bridge. The model also shows that debris in that scenario would be likely to wash up at Angel Island, exactly where one of the paddles and some personal belongings were found.
Didn't Mythbusters do this years ago?
Didn't Mythbusters do this years ago including an recreation of the journey?
I find it hard to believe that these guys escaped and then disappeared without a trace forever. Why didn't we ever hear anything from them after the escape?
So these guys jumped into a rubber raft on a June day and paddled across the bay at nearly HIGH NOON? Kinda conspicuous, don't you think? Unless it was foggy as all hell, which is definitely possible.
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1. Mythbusters (and others) have already tested this in real life (not a computer program) and said they could have survived.
2. They could have survived, but they didn't survive. Unless they lived out the rest of their lives in isolation; we would have heard something from them.
> Why didn't we ever hear anything from them after the escape?
Because they'd be sent back to prison if they revealed themselves. They had also embarrassed the warden of the "escape proof" Alcatraz in a very public way. Their first week back likely would have been rather unpleasant.
Think about it - they obviously didn't reoffend, right? If they had, they'd have been detected and returned (probably with a few extra bruises) to the Rock. Therefore, in the case of these three men the system worked perfectly - whether they escaped or not.
Who could not fit into society, and needed to be continually brutalized and have their rights broken to save us from them! So how could they fade into obscurity among us?
Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
Who cares if they *could* have survived. I don't think that's in question.
I want to know *if* they survived.
The Rover got them. The warden knows all about The Rover.
Back in 2003 Mythbusters made an episode named "Alcatraz Escape" where they recreated a raft made out of rain coats and did sail on the current produced by the tide. They landed near the northern end of the Golden Gate bridge, proving that the journey is in fact possible.
11:30 AM or 11:30 PM?
Slashdot commentator got it wrong. Check out http://www.networkworld.com/article/2860407/software/did-alcatraz-escapees-survive-computer-program-says-they-might-have.html before further comments.
It has been known for quite some time that it was not an impossible undertaking. This study just corroborates that, without changing the probability of success or failure one bit. I for one still think that they did not make it; I find it difficult to believe that they were able to disappear without a trace, and to keep their mouths shut all these years - vanity is a powerful motivator, and leaving something in writing to be published after one is dead is a very easy thing to do.
I assume that the summary was blindly copy-pasted from the linked story before they fixed their text.
The attempt did, of course, occur around 11:30pm.
coondoggie writes
No, no he didn't. Why do we continue with this charade?
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I suspect that prison makes you learn a few things rather quickly...
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
We may yet find out... most of the smarter escapees tend to wait until their deathbed to let something like that slip out.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
Didn't re-offend? You mean, didn't get caught. There's a difference.
The Anglin brothers Alfred Clarence (born May 11, 1931) and John William (born May 2, 1930) were born in Donalsonville, Georgia, and worked as farmers and laborers. Together they started to rob banks in Georgia and were arrested in 1956.
Frank Lee Morris was born in Washington, D.C., on September 1, 1926, and spent most of his early years in foster homes. He was orphaned at age 11 and was convicted of his first crime at the age of 13, and by his late teens had been arrested for crimes ranging from possession of narcotics to armed robbery.
In 2014 researchers at Delft University, using a computer model, concluded that if the men set off approximately at midnight, when the currents might have worked in their favor, they could have made landfall; but if they left in the hours either side, the currents would have been too strong to overcome and they very likely died.
June 1962 Alcatraz escape
In other words, habitual criminals with limited skills and prospects.
Morris, with an IQ of 133. had never found a way to walk away from a crime that would not end in his arrest.
The timing would have had to have been damn near perfect based on computer models constructed some fifty years later.
Garbage in, garbage out
They had a boat? Why wouldn't they survive if they had a boat!?
What's it like getting your ass kicked by apk + downmodding to hide it 20x http://tech.slashdot.org/comme... ?